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Li Y, Luo L, Dong H. Delivering Integrated Community Care for the Elderly: A Qualitative Case Study in Southern China. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2024; 21:680. [PMID: 38928927 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph21060680] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/31/2024] [Revised: 05/15/2024] [Accepted: 05/22/2024] [Indexed: 06/28/2024]
Abstract
The rapid aging and increasing care demands among the elderly population present challenges to China's health and social care system. The concept of aging in place has prompted the implementation of integrated community care (ICC) in the country. This study aims to provide empirical insights into the practices of integrated care policies and approaches at the community level. Data for this study were collected through six months of participatory observations at a local community health service center in a southern Chinese city. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with the multidisciplinary community care team to gather frontline formal caregiver perceptions of ICC, thereby facilitating a better understanding of the obstacles and opportunities. Qualitative analysis revealed four themes: the ICC delivery model and development strategies within the community care scheme, the person-centered guiding principle, and the challenges and struggles encountered by formal caregivers within China's current ICC system. The case study presented herein serves as a notable example of the pivotal role of primary care in the successful implementation of elderly care within a community setting. The adoption of a private organization-led approach to medico-social integration care in the community holds significant potential as a service delivery model for effectively addressing a wide range of elderly care issues.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yiqiao Li
- School of Marxism, South China Normal University, Guangzhou 510631, China
| | - Lan Luo
- Huangpu Hongshanjie Community Health Service Center, Guangzhou 510725, China
| | - Hongying Dong
- School of Marxism, South China Normal University, Guangzhou 510631, China
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2
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Szczepura A, Khan AJ, Wild D, Nelson S, Woodhouse S, Collinson M. Digital Adoption by an Organization Supporting Informal Caregivers During COVID-19 Pandemic Showing Impact on Service Use, Organizational Performance, and Carers' Well-Being: Retrospective Population-Based Database Study With Embedded User Survey. JMIR Aging 2024; 7:e46414. [PMID: 38739915 PMCID: PMC11130774 DOI: 10.2196/46414] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/10/2023] [Revised: 08/06/2023] [Accepted: 11/26/2023] [Indexed: 05/16/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The COVID-19 pandemic has catalyzed a move from face-to-face to digital delivery of services by hospitals and primary care. However, little is known about the impact of digital transformation on organizations supporting unpaid caregivers. Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, the value of care provided by such informal caregivers is estimated to be £111 billion (US$ 152.7 billion) in England. OBJECTIVE This study aims to analyze service uptake patterns (including digital service options) over the pandemic period in an English caregivers' support organization covering a population of 0.98 million; measure changes in organizational performance, service efficiency, and quality; and identify the views of caregivers on service provision and future digital delivery. METHODS This was a retrospective analysis of the use of digital versus nondigital support services (January 2019 to June 2021) by caregivers in city and rural geographic areas. We compared organizational performance and service quality indicators for 2 financial years (2019-2020 and 2020-2021). A survey was conducted to identify barriers and facilitators to digital service uptake, the computer proficiency of caregivers (the Computer Proficiency Questionnaire, 12-item version), and preferences for future digital service provision. Quantitative data were analyzed using Stata 13 (StataCorp LLC). Thematic analysis was used for open-text survey responses. RESULTS The number of caregivers registered with the organization rose from 14,817 in 2019 to 20,237 in 2021. Monthly contacts rose from 1929 to 6741, with remote contacts increasing from 48.89% (943/1929) to 86.68% (5843/6741); distinctive patterns were observed for city versus rural caregivers. There was an increase in one-to-one contacts (88.8%) and caregiver assessments (20.9%), with no expansion in staffing. Service quality indicators showed an improvement in 5 of 8 variables (all P<.05). The 152 carers completing the survey had similar demographics to all registered caregivers. The Computer Proficiency Questionnaire, 12-item version, mean score of 25.61 (SD 4.40) indicated relatively high computer proficiency. The analysis of open-text responses identified a preference for the organization to continue to offer face-to-face services as well as web-based options. The digital services that were the most highly rated were carers' well-being assessments, support needs checks, and peer support groups. CONCLUSIONS Our findings show that staff in the caregiver support organization were agile in adapting their services to digital delivery while dealing with increased numbers of registered clients and higher monthly contacts, all without obvious detriment to service quality. Caregivers indicated a preference for blended services, even while recording high computer proficiency. Considering the economic importance of unpaid caregivers, more attention should be given to organizations funded to provide support for them and to the potential for technology to enhance caregivers' access to, and engagement with, such services.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ala Szczepura
- Research Centre for Healthcare & Communities, Coventry University, Coventry, United Kingdom
| | - Amir Jahan Khan
- Department of Economics, Institute of Business Administration (IBA), Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Deidre Wild
- Research Centre for Healthcare & Communities, Coventry University, Coventry, United Kingdom
| | - Sara Nelson
- Prostate Cancer Research, London, United Kingdom
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3
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Szczepura A, Masaki H, Wild D, Nomura T, Collinson M, Kneafsey R. Integrated Long-Term Care 'Neighbourhoods' to Support Older Populations: Evolving Strategies in Japan and England. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2023; 20:6352. [PMID: 37510584 PMCID: PMC10379849 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph20146352] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/12/2023] [Revised: 06/21/2023] [Accepted: 07/06/2023] [Indexed: 07/30/2023]
Abstract
Western countries are currently facing the public health challenge of a rapidly aging population and the associated challenge of providing long-term care services to meet its needs with a reduced working age population. As people age, they will increasingly require both health and social care services to maintain their quality of life and these will need to be integrated to provide cost-effective long-term care. The World Health Organization recommended in 2020 that all countries should have integrated long-term care strategies to better support their older populations. Japan, with the most rapidly ageing society in the world, started to address this challenge in the 1990s. In 2017, it introduced a national policy for integrated long-term health and social care services at a local geographical level for older people. England has recently embarked on its first plan aiming for the integration of services for older people. In this article, we compare these approaches to the integration of long-term care systems, including the strengths of each. The paper also considers the effects of historical, cultural and organizational factors and the emerging role of technology. Finally, we identify critical lessons that can inform strategy development in other countries, and highlight the need to provide more international comparisons.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ala Szczepura
- Research Centre for Healthcare and Communities, Institute for Health & Wellbeing, Coventry University, Coventry CV1 5FB, UK
| | - Harue Masaki
- Graduate School of Nursing, Chiba University, Chiba 263-8522, Japan
| | - Deidre Wild
- Research Centre for Healthcare and Communities, Institute for Health & Wellbeing, Coventry University, Coventry CV1 5FB, UK
| | - Toshio Nomura
- Research Centre for Healthcare and Communities, Institute for Health & Wellbeing, Coventry University, Coventry CV1 5FB, UK
| | - Mark Collinson
- MC2S Consultancy Services, Bromsgrove, Worcestershire B48 7JX, UK
| | - Rosie Kneafsey
- Research Centre for Healthcare and Communities, Institute for Health & Wellbeing, Coventry University, Coventry CV1 5FB, UK
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4
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Towards Sustainability: The Involvement of the Elderly in the Educational Activities of NGOs in Lithuania. SUSTAINABILITY 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/su14042095] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
In an aging society, the promotion of lifelong learning is important for sustainability and the social inclusion of elderly people. Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) are actively involved in this process, accepting a significant challenge to promote the activity of elderly people through educational activities. Such activities with elderly people are special, as they include the integration and empowerment of the individual to re-adopt societal norms, to discover new opportunities for self-realization, and to respond flexibly to economic and social change. This study aims to reveal the involvement of the elderly in the educational activities of NGOs. To achieve this goal, a qualitative research method was chosen—the discussion of a focus group. In the case of the study, the group assessment and categorization methodologies were used. The analysis of the experiences of elderly people participating in NGO educational activities revealed that the motives for engaging in NGO activities are related to the needs for self-expression, communication, as well as social mobility, integration, and social adaptation to constant changes in society. To promote the involvement of elderly people, NGOs must focus on disseminating information on educational activities, promoting active aging, removing barriers to individual activity, and improving the competencies of elderly people, helping them to acquire new knowledge and skills, as well as focusing on the organization itself.
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Health care utilization in very advanced ages: A study on predisposing, enabling and need factors. Arch Gerontol Geriatr 2021; 98:104561. [PMID: 34706319 DOI: 10.1016/j.archger.2021.104561] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/13/2021] [Revised: 10/11/2021] [Accepted: 10/16/2021] [Indexed: 12/21/2022]
Abstract
This study aims to examine the effects of predisposing, enabling, and need factors on healthcare utilization in advanced age. Data from a sample of 270 Portuguese community-dwelling persons aged ≥80 years was used. Face-to-face interviews were conducted and included the application of a research protocol addressing a set of sociodemographic and health-related variables that expressed the Andersen Behavioral model (i.e., predisposing, enabling, and need factors). Predictors of visits to general practitioners (GP) and specialist physicians, as well as emergency department (ED) use and hospitalizations were investigated. Multivariate linear and logistic regression analyzes were used to model the effects of predictor factors specified in the Andersen Behavioral model. Our findings underscore that younger age and having multimorbidity were significantly associated with having GP visits. Specialist physician visits were associated with younger age and a higher number of daily medications. ED use was associated with being male, having formal social support and a higher number of daily medications. Hospitalizations were associated with being younger, being male and having multimorbidity. Our findings revealed that need and predisposing factors determined the most healthcare use.
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Quinn C, Hart N, Henderson C, Litherland R, Pickett J, Clare L. Developing supportive local communities: Perspectives from people with dementia and caregivers participating in the IDEAL programme. J Aging Soc Policy 2021; 34:839-859. [PMID: 34629015 DOI: 10.1080/08959420.2021.1973341] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/20/2022]
Abstract
Communities play an important role in supporting people living with dementia. The aim of this study was to explore what could be changed in the local community to enable those with dementia to live well. People with dementia and carers taking part in the IDEAL programme responded to open-ended questions. Responses from 1,172 people with dementia and 702 caregivers were analyzed using thematic analysis. Four themes were identified: raising awareness, improving access to support services, providing social events and activities, and supporting people to engage in the community. These highlight the role of individuals, resources and the environment in supporting those with dementia. Longer-term investment in services is needed to underpin dementia-inclusive communities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Catherine Quinn
- Associate Professor, Centre for Applied Dementia Studies, Faculty of Health Studies, University of Bradford, Bradford, UK.,Wolfson Centre for Applied Health Research, Bradford, UK
| | | | - Catherine Henderson
- Assistant Professorial Research Fellow, Care Policy and Evaluation Centre, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK
| | | | - James Pickett
- Hub Development Manager, Health Data Research, London, UK
| | - Linda Clare
- Professor of Clinical Psychology of Ageing and Dementia, REACH: The Centre for Research in Ageing and Cognitive Health, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.,Dementia Theme Lead, NIHR Applied Research Collaboration, Exeter, South-West Peninsula
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7
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Isham L, Bradbury-Jones C, Hewison A. Female family carers' experiences of violent, abusive or harmful behaviour by the older person for whom they care: a case of epistemic injustice? SOCIOLOGY OF HEALTH & ILLNESS 2020; 42:80-94. [PMID: 31515820 DOI: 10.1111/1467-9566.12986] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Family carers affected by violent, abusive or harmful behaviour by the older person for whom they care face social and epistemic challenges in developing and sharing knowledge about their experiences. These difficulties have contributed to a situation in which there is a paucity of evidence and public discourse about how we understand violence and harm instigated by people who have care needs or are 'vulnerable'. This paper reports the findings of a qualitative study that involved 12 in-depth interviews with female carers affected by violence, abuse or harm. The study was informed theoretically by Miranda Fricker's concept of epistemic injustice which was used as a framework for analysis. There were two principal findings: (1) Carers were sensitive to anticipatory stigma and loss of moral autonomy. As a result, they self-censured what they shared and, at times, were met with subtle but powerful processes of silencing. (2) Carers had limited linguistic and conceptual resources to explain the emotional and social aspects of the harm they experienced, exacerbated by implicit social norms about the 'private' and gendered nature of familial care. To conclude, we discuss the implications of these findings for sociological research and health and social care practice.
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Affiliation(s)
- Louise Isham
- School of Nursing, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
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8
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A Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Model for Evaluating Senior Daycare Center Locations. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2019; 16:ijerph16245031. [PMID: 31835613 PMCID: PMC6950606 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph16245031] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/19/2019] [Revised: 12/05/2019] [Accepted: 12/05/2019] [Indexed: 12/01/2022]
Abstract
Many developed and developing countries are facing an imminent population aging and rapid demographics changing problem. The need of various kinds of eldercare is increasing tremendously. A senior daycare center, very similar to a daycare center for toddlers and preschoolers, can provide the elderly a place to go during daytime and have a more diversified social life. In this research, a senior daycare center location evaluation problem is studied, and a model for facilitating the decision-making of the senior daycare center location is constructed by considering the benefits, opportunities, costs, and risks (BOCR) of the locations. Senior daycare center location evaluation factors are listed first through literature review and interview with experts. These factors are used to construct a network, which is applied to prepare a questionnaire to ask about the influences of a criterion to other criteria. The interrelationships among the criteria are calculated by adopting fuzzy interpretative structural modeling (FISM). Based on the results from the FISM, a fuzzy analytic network process (FANP) questionnaire is given out, and the results are used to determine the priorities of the criteria. In addition, the final ranking of the senior daycare center locations can be obtained. The research results can provide references for prospective senior daycare center providers for making relevant decisions.
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Isham L, Hewison A, Bradbury-Jones C. When Older People Are Violent or Abusive Toward Their Family Caregiver: A Review of Mixed-Methods Research. TRAUMA, VIOLENCE & ABUSE 2019; 20:626-637. [PMID: 29333998 DOI: 10.1177/1524838017726425] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
What happens when family caregivers experience violence and abuse from the older person for whom they care? Although this issue has received little global attention, it is relevant to researchers, practitioners, and policy makers working across the intersecting fields of older age care and medicine, adult protection and safeguarding, and domestic and intimate partner violence. To date, these fields have generated diverse explanations of violence and abuse in older age illness and how best to respond to it. This article reports the findings of a systematic literature review of 18 quantitative, qualitative, and mixed-methods studies that investigated violent and abusive behavior by older people toward their family caregivers. The review identified three central themes in the literature: (1) There are inconsistent definitions and measurements used in research about harmful, violent, and abusive behavior toward family caregivers. (2) Violent and abusive behavior toward caregivers is a sensitive and hidden topic that poses practical and methodological challenges for researchers. (3) There is some evidence to suggest that people who were violent and abusive in their earlier life-or who had a poor relationship with their family member in the past-are more likely to continue to experience violence and abusive behavior in later life. There were two central ways in which violence and abuse were conceptualized and investigated: as a "symptom of illness" or as an "act of abuse" and we present a visual map of the relationship between these two conceptualizations drawn from our analysis of the literature. We conclude by discussing the implications of the findings and recommend future directions for practice, research, and policy to support affected families.
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Affiliation(s)
- Louise Isham
- University of Birmingham, Birmingham, United Kingdom
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10
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Islind AS, Snis UL, Lindroth T, Lundin J, Cerna K, Steineck G. The Virtual Clinic: Two-sided Affordances in Consultation Practice. Comput Support Coop Work 2019. [DOI: 10.1007/s10606-019-09350-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/26/2022]
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11
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Lin R, Chen HY, Li H, Li J. Effects of creative expression therapy on Chinese elderly patients with dementia: an exploratory randomized controlled trial. Neuropsychiatr Dis Treat 2019; 15:2171-2180. [PMID: 31440055 PMCID: PMC6679675 DOI: 10.2147/ndt.s200045] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/01/2019] [Accepted: 04/24/2019] [Indexed: 01/10/2023] Open
Abstract
Purpose: This study aimed to evaluate the effect of creative expression (CE) therapy on cognition, communication, emotion, and quality-of-life in people with dementia. Methods: One hundred individuals were included in this study, of whom 91 completed the study (mean age=84.33). The participants were randomly assigned to an intervention group (n=43) and a control group (n=48), and received the CE program or standard cognitive (SC) training twice a week for 6 weeks, respectively. Both groups were submitted to extensive neuropsychological tests, as follows - Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), Quality of Life-Alzheimer's Disease (QOL-AD), Cornell Scale for Depression in Dementia (CSDD), Functional Assessment of Communication Skills (FACS) at baseline, 1-, and 4 -weeks post-intervention, and the Observed Emotion Rating Scale (OERS) was measured during the intervention period at weeks 3 and 6. Results: The participants demonstrated significant improvements in cognitive function, quality-of-life, depression degree, communication ability, and emotion status (P<0.05) at post-intervention, which were maintained at 1-month follow-up. Conclusion: This study provides preliminary evidence that CE therapy developed in the study benefits elderly Chinese with dementia. The findings indicated that non-pharmacological intervention programs - CE therapy - can be applied in the management of neuropsychiatric symptoms of dementia.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rong Lin
- Department of Nursing, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, People's Republic of China
| | - Hui-Ying Chen
- Fujian Provincial Hospital , Fuzhou, People's Republic of China
| | - Hong Li
- Department of Nursing, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, People's Republic of China.,Fujian Provincial Hospital , Fuzhou, People's Republic of China
| | - Jing Li
- Fujian Provincial Hospital , Fuzhou, People's Republic of China
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12
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13
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Liu X, Chen Z, Fine JP, Liu L, Wang A, Guo J, Tao L, Mahara G, Yang K, Zhang J, Tian S, Li H, Liu K, Luo Y, Zhang F, Tang Z, Guo X. A competing-risk-based score for predicting twenty-year risk of incident diabetes: the Beijing Longitudinal Study of Ageing study. Sci Rep 2016; 6:37248. [PMID: 27849048 PMCID: PMC5110955 DOI: 10.1038/srep37248] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/19/2016] [Accepted: 10/26/2016] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Few risk tools have been proposed to quantify the long-term risk of diabetes among middle-aged and elderly individuals in China. The present study aimed to develop a risk tool to estimate the 20-year risk of developing diabetes while incorporating competing risks. A three-stage stratification random-clustering sampling procedure was conducted to ensure the representativeness of the Beijing elderly. We prospectively followed 1857 community residents aged 55 years and above who were free of diabetes at baseline examination. Sub-distribution hazards models were used to adjust for the competing risks of non-diabetes death. The cumulative incidence function of twenty-year diabetes event rates was 11.60% after adjusting for the competing risks of non-diabetes death. Age, body mass index, fasting plasma glucose, health status, and physical activity were selected to form the score. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.76 (95% Confidence Interval: 0.72-0.80), and the optimism-corrected AUC was 0.78 (95% Confidence Interval: 0.69-0.87) after internal validation by bootstrapping. The calibration plot showed that the actual diabetes risk was similar to the predicted risk. The cut-off value of the risk score was 19 points, marking mark the difference between low-risk and high-risk patients, which exhibited a sensitivity of 0.74 and specificity of 0.65.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiangtong Liu
- School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100069, China.,Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing 100069, China
| | - Zhenghong Chen
- Beijing Neurosurgical Institute, Capital Medical University, 6, Tiantanxili, Beijing, 100050, China
| | - Jason Peter Fine
- Department of Biostatistics, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, 46200, NC, U.S.A.,Department of Statistics &Operations Research, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, 319200, NC, U.S.A
| | - Long Liu
- School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100069, China.,Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing 100069, China
| | - Anxin Wang
- School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100069, China.,Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing 100069, China
| | - Jin Guo
- School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100069, China.,Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing 100069, China
| | - Lixin Tao
- School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100069, China.,Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing 100069, China
| | - Gehendra Mahara
- School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100069, China.,Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing 100069, China
| | - Kun Yang
- School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100069, China.,Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing 100069, China
| | - Jie Zhang
- School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100069, China.,Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing 100069, China
| | - Sijia Tian
- School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100069, China.,Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing 100069, China
| | - Haibin Li
- School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100069, China.,Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing 100069, China
| | - Kuo Liu
- School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100069, China.,Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing 100069, China
| | - Yanxia Luo
- School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100069, China.,Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing 100069, China
| | - Feng Zhang
- School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100069, China.,Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing 100069, China
| | - Zhe Tang
- Beijing Geriatric Clinical and Research Center, Xuanwu Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100053, China
| | - Xiuhua Guo
- School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100069, China.,Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing 100069, China
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14
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Liu X, Fine JP, Chen Z, Liu L, Li X, Wang A, Guo J, Tao L, Mahara G, Tang Z, Guo X. Prediction of the 20-year incidence of diabetes in older Chinese: Application of the competing risk method in a longitudinal study. Medicine (Baltimore) 2016; 95:e5057. [PMID: 27749572 PMCID: PMC5059075 DOI: 10.1097/md.0000000000005057] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/20/2016] [Revised: 09/08/2016] [Accepted: 09/10/2016] [Indexed: 11/26/2022] Open
Abstract
The competing risk method has become more acceptable for time-to-event data analysis because of its advantage over the standard Cox model in accounting for competing events in the risk set. This study aimed to construct a prediction model for diabetes using a subdistribution hazards model.We prospectively followed 1857 community residents who were aged ≥ 55 years, free of diabetes at baseline examination from August 1992 to December 2012. Diabetes was defined as a self-reported history of diabetes diagnosis, taking antidiabetic medicine, or having fasting plasma glucose (FPG) ≥ 7.0 mmol/L. A questionnaire was used to measure diabetes risk factors, including dietary habits, lifestyle, psychological factors, cognitive function, and physical condition. Gray test and a subdistribution hazards model were used to construct a prediction algorithm for 20-year risk of diabetes. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, bootstrap cross-validated Wolber concordance index (C-index) statistics, and calibration plots were used to assess model performance.During the 20-year follow-up period, 144 cases were documented for diabetes incidence with a median follow-up of 10.9 years (interquartile range: 8.0-15.3 years). The cumulative incidence function of 20-year diabetes incidence was 11.60% after adjusting for the competing risk of nondiabetes death. Gray test showed that body mass index, FPG, self-rated heath status, and physical activity were associated with the cumulative incidence function of diabetes after adjusting for age. Finally, 5 standard risk factors (poor self-rated health status [subdistribution hazard ratio (SHR) = 1.73, P = 0.005], less physical activity [SHR = 1.39, P = 0.047], 55-65 years old [SHR = 4.37, P < 0.001], overweight [SHR = 2.15, P < 0.001] or obesity [SHR = 1.96, P = 0.003], and impaired fasting glucose [IFG] [SHR = 1.99, P < 0.001]) were significantly associated with incident diabetes. Model performance was moderate to excellent, as indicated by its bootstrap cross-validated discrimination C-index (0.74, 95% CI: 0.70-0.79) and calibration plot.Poor self-rated health, physical inactivity, being 55 to 65 years of age, overweight/obesity, and IFG were significant predictors of incident diabetes. Early prevention with a goal of achieving optimal levels of all risk factors should become a key element of diabetes prevention.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiangtong Liu
- School of Public Health, Capital Medical University
- Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing, P.R. China
| | - Jason Peter Fine
- Department of Biostatistics
- Department of Statistics & Operations Research, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, USA
| | - Zhenghong Chen
- Beijing Neurosurgical Institute, Capital Medical University, Tiantanxili, Beijing, P.R. China
| | - Long Liu
- School of Public Health, Capital Medical University
- Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing, P.R. China
| | - Xia Li
- The Graduate Entry Medical School, University of Limerick, Limerick, Ireland
| | - Anxin Wang
- School of Public Health, Capital Medical University
- Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing, P.R. China
| | - Jin Guo
- School of Public Health, Capital Medical University
- Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing, P.R. China
| | - Lixin Tao
- School of Public Health, Capital Medical University
- Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing, P.R. China
| | - Gehendra Mahara
- School of Public Health, Capital Medical University
- Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing, P.R. China
| | - Zhe Tang
- Beijing Geriatric Clinical and Research Center, Xuanwu Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, P.R. China
| | - Xiuhua Guo
- School of Public Health, Capital Medical University
- Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing, P.R. China
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