‘Plausible uncertainty’: The negotiated indeterminacy of pandemic influenza in the UK

Concept analysis of uncertainty in people with mental disabilities

PURPOSE

This concept analysis clarified "uncertainty in people with mental disabilities".

METHODS

The research was conducted using Walker & Avant's conceptual analysis methodology.

RESULTS

Uncertainty in people with mental disabilities showed the defining attributes of "ambiguity," "unpredictability," "distrust," and "lack of insight into illness," of which "distrust" and "lack of insight" were unique to people with mental disabilities. Accordingly, it was defined as a state in which it is difficult to determine the treatment's timing because (1) the disease process is often too ambiguous to make a decision; (2) abnormal behavior can recur at any time while the patients are under treatment and in recovery; and (3) patients struggle to accept the illness, tend to distrust healthcare professionals and family, and show lack of knowledge, making them miss their treatment's timing and even making the expectation for recovery vague.

CONCLUSION

The attributes of uncertainty in people with mental disabilities identified in this study confirmed that mental health professionals should proactively intervene to treat patients at an appropriate time and continuously manage them to prevent recurrence.

PRACTICE IMPLICATION

The study findings can be utilized in mental health research and in developing interventions to reduce uncertainty in people with mental disabilities, helping them recover and integrate into the community.

Making pandemics big: On the situational performance of Covid-19 mathematical models

In this paper, we trace how mathematical models are made 'evidence enough' and 'useful for policy'. Working with the interview accounts of mathematical modellers and other scientists engaged in the UK Covid-19 response, we focus on two weeks in March 2020 prior to the announcement of an unprecedented national lockdown. A key thread in our analysis is how pandemics are made 'big'. We follow the work of one particular device, that of modelled 'doubling-time'. By following how modelled doubling-time entangles in its assemblage of evidence-making, we draw attention to multiple actors, including beyond models and metrics, which affect how evidence is performed in relation to the scale of epidemic and its policy response. We draw attention to: policy; Government scientific advice infrastructure; time; uncertainty; and leaps of faith. The 'bigness' of the pandemic, and its evidencing, is situated in social and affective practices, in which uncertainty and dis-ease are inseparable from calculus. This materialises modelling in policy as an 'uncomfortable science'. We argue that situational fit in-the-moment is at least as important as empirical fit when attending to what models perform in policy.

Public perceptions and experiences of social distancing and social isolation during the COVID-19 pandemic: a UK-based focus group study

OBJECTIVE

This study explored UK public perceptions and experiences of social distancing and social isolation related to the COVID-19 pandemic.

DESIGN

This qualitative study comprised five focus groups, carried out online during the early stages of the UK's stay at home order ('lockdown'), and analysed using a thematic approach.

SETTING

Focus groups took place via online videoconferencing.

PARTICIPANTS

Participants (n=27) were all UK residents aged 18 years and older, representing a range of gender, ethnic, age and occupational backgrounds.

RESULTS

Qualitative analysis revealed four main themes: (1) loss-participants' loss of (in-person) social interaction, loss of income and loss of structure and routine led to psychological and emotional 'losses' such as loss of motivation, loss of meaning and loss of self-worth; (2) criticisms of government communication-participants reported a lack of trust in government and a lack of clarity in the guidelines around social distancing and isolation; (3) adherence-participants reported high self-adherence to social distancing guidelines but reported seeing or hearing of non-adherence in others; (4) uncertainty around social reintegration and the future-some participants felt they would have lingering concerns over social contact while others were eager to return to high levels of social activity.Most participants, and particularly those in low-paid or precarious employment, reported feeling that the social distancing and isolation associated with COVID-19 policy has had negative impacts on their mental health and well-being during the early stages of the UK's 'lockdown'.

CONCLUSIONS

A rapid response is necessary in terms of public health programming to mitigate the mental health impacts of COVID-19 social distancing and isolation. Social distancing and isolation 'exit strategies' must account for the fact that, although some individuals will voluntarily or habitually continue to socially distance, others will seek high levels of social engagement as soon as possible.

Modelling the pandemic: attuning models to their contexts

The evidence produced in mathematical models plays a key role in shaping policy decisions in pandemics. A key question is therefore how well pandemic models relate to their implementation contexts. Drawing on the cases of Ebola and influenza, we map how sociological and anthropological research contributes in the modelling of pandemics to consider lessons for COVID-19. We show how models detach from their implementation contexts through their connections with global narratives of pandemic response, and how sociological and anthropological research can help to locate models differently. This potentiates multiple models of pandemic response attuned to their emerging situations in an iterative and adaptive science. We propose a more open approach to the modelling of pandemics which envisages the model as an intervention of deliberation in situations of evolving uncertainty. This challenges the 'business-as-usual' of evidence-based approaches in global health by accentuating all science, within and beyond pandemics, as 'emergent' and 'adaptive'.

Biography, pandemic time and risk: Pregnant women reflecting on their experiences of the 2009 influenza pandemic

During the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, it was identified that women in the third trimester of pregnancy were particularly at risk of serious respiratory distress. At-risk women were advised to seek vaccination, avoid contact with anyone unwell, maintain hygiene routines and stop smoking. We examine this situation of emergent and intense risk produced at the intersection of individual biography and the historical event of a public health emergency. We examine how pregnant women took account of risk, how they negotiated incomplete and at times contradictory advice and shaped courses of action that assisted them to manage the emerging terrain of pandemic threat. Public health risk management advice was endorsed, although choosing vaccination was fraught. Social distancing, too, was seen as a valuable risk moderation strategy. However, time, and specifically the intersection of individual pregnancy timelines with the pandemic's timeline, was also seen as an important risk management resource. The implications of this mix of sanctioned and temporal risk management practices are discussed.