Constructing the uncertainty of due dates

Predicting labor onset relative to the estimated date of delivery using smart ring physiological data

The transition from pregnancy into parturition is physiologically directed by maternal, fetal and placental tissues. We hypothesize that these processes may be reflected in maternal physiological metrics. We enrolled pregnant participants in the third-trimester (n = 118) to study continuously worn smart ring devices monitoring heart rate, heart rate variability, skin temperature, sleep and physical activity from negative temperature coefficient, 3-D accelerometer and infrared photoplethysmography sensors. Weekly surveys assessed labor symptoms, pain, fatigue and mood. We estimated the association between each metric, gestational age, and the likelihood of a participant's labor beginning prior to (versus after) the clinical estimated delivery date (EDD) of 40.0 weeks with mixed effects regression. A boosted random forest was trained on the physiological metrics to predict pregnancies that naturally passed the EDD versus undergoing onset of labor prior to the EDD. Here we report that many raw sleep, activity, pain, fatigue and labor symptom metrics are correlated with gestational age. As gestational age advances, pregnant individuals have lower resting heart rate 0.357 beats/minute/week, 0.84 higher heart rate variability (milliseconds) and shorter durations of physical activity and sleep. Further, random forest predictions determine pregnancies that would pass the EDD with accuracy of 0.71 (area under the receiver operating curve). Self-reported symptoms of labor correlate with increased gestational age and not with the timing of labor (relative to EDD) or onset of spontaneous labor. The use of maternal smart ring-derived physiological data in the third-trimester may improve prediction of the natural duration of pregnancy relative to the EDD.

Being PAL: Uncertainty and Coping in r/PregnancyAfterLoss

Women who become pregnant again following miscarriage or stillbirth are in a particularly vulnerable position as they grapple with uncertainty about the current pregnancy's viability and outcomes. In this study, we examine the types of uncertainty that emerge in pregnancy after loss (PAL) and how women manage that uncertainty. Framed by the theory of communication and uncertainty management, we thematically analyzed threads (N = 636) from the online discussion board Reddit, focusing on the specific subreddit community r/PregnancyAfterLoss. Themes of physiological, emotional, and social uncertainty dominated the PAL experiences of these online community members. Uncertainty management and coping strategies included direct information seeking, bracing, mantras, and accepting uncertainty as part of the PAL experience. Theoretical contributions of this study include an initial conceptualization of emotional uncertainty in health communication. In addition, we draw parallels between uncertainty in PAL and in illness and highlight the unique features of PAL that expand our understanding of uncertainty in health. Practical implications are drawn from members' expressed needs and uncertainty management practices, and provide direction for supporting women through the PAL experience.

Towards a new understanding of uncertainty in medical education

RATIONALE, AIMS, AND OBJECTIVES

Uncertainty is a complex and constant phenomenon in clinical practice. How medical students recognize and respond to uncertainty impacts on their well-being, career choices, and attitudes towards patients. It has been suggested that curricula should do more to prepare medical students for an uncertain world. In order to teach medical students about uncertainty, we need to understand how uncertainty has been conceptualized in the literature to date. The aim of this article is to explore existing models of uncertainty and to develop a framework of clinical uncertainty to aid medical education.

METHOD

A scoping literature review was performed to identify conceptual models of uncertainty in healthcare. Content and inductive analyses were performed to explore three dimensions of clinical uncertainty: sources of uncertainty, subjective influencers and responses to uncertainty.

RESULTS

Nine hundred one references were identified using our search strategy, of which, 24 met our inclusion criteria. It was possible to classify these conceptual models using one or more of three dimensions of uncertainty; sources, subjective influencers, and responses. Exploration and further classification of these dimensions led to the development of a framework of uncertainty for medical education.

CONCLUSION

The developed framework of clinical uncertainty highlights sources, subjective influencers, responses to uncertainty, and the dynamic relationship among these elements. Our framework illustrates the different aspects of knowledge as a source of uncertainty and how to distinguish between those aspects. Our framework highlights the complexity of sources of uncertainty, especially when including uncertainty arising from relationships and systems. These sources can occur in combination. Our framework is also novel in how it describes the impact of influencers such as personal characteristics, experience, and affect on perceptions of and responses to uncertainty. This framework can be used by educators and curricula developers to help understand and teach about clinical uncertainty.

Women's information needs, decision-making and experiences of membrane sweeping to promote spontaneous labour

OBJECTIVE

To explore and synthesise evidence of women's information needs, decision-making and experiences of membrane sweeping to promote spontaneous labour.

DESIGN

A systematic review following the Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) meta-aggregative approach to qualitative evidence synthesis. Relevant databases were searched for literature published in English between 2000-19. Study quality was assessed using the JBI quality assessment tool for qualitative studies.

SETTING

Qualitative research conducted in OECD countries describing women's information needs, decision-making and/or experiences of membrane sweeping to promote spontaneous labour.

FINDINGS

One article met the criteria for inclusion. This article describes the experience of a membrane sweep given without consent.

KEY CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE

There is a lack of evidence around women's information needs, decision-making and experiences of membrane sweeping. This is concerning, especially in the context of rising rates of formal induction of labour. Further research is needed to investigate how women are being offered membrane sweeping and what information women need to make informed choices about membrane sweeping to promote spontaneous labour.

The Influence of Everyday Interpersonal Communication on the Medical Encounter: An Extension of Street's Ecological Model

Street's ecological model has shaped the research-examining communication during medical encounters for over a decade. Although the model accounts for the variety of contexts that shape the conversations in which patients and health-care providers engage, the model does not adequately address the way that everyday conversations about health carry over into patient-provider interactions. In this essay, we propose an extension of Street's model that adds the context of everyday communication about health as a contributing factor in the medical encounter. We support the need for this extension by discussing research that points to the ways these conversations with our social network influence communication during the medical encounter and propose new areas for research based on this extension.

The doctor-patient relationship as a toolkit for uncertain clinical decisions

Medical uncertainty is a well-recognized problem in healthcare, yet how doctors make decisions in the face of uncertainty remains to be understood. This article draws on interdisciplinary literature on uncertainty and physician decision-making to examine a specific physician response to uncertainty: using the doctor-patient relationship as a toolkit. Additionally, I ask what happens to this process when the doctor-patient relationship becomes fragmented. I answer these questions by examining obstetrician-gynecologists' narratives regarding how they make decisions when faced with uncertainty in childbirth. Between 2013 and 2014, I performed 21 semi-structured interviews with obstetricians in the United States. Obstetricians were selected to maximize variation in relevant physician, hospital, and practice characteristics. I began with grounded theory and moved to analytical coding of themes in relation to relevant literature. My analysis renders it evident that some physicians use the doctor-patient relationship as a toolkit for dealing with uncertainty. I analyze how this process varies for physicians in different models of care by comparing doctors' experiences in models with continuous versus fragmented doctor-patient relationships. My key findings are that obstetricians in both models appealed to the ideal of patient-centered decision-making to cope with uncertain decisions, but in practice physicians in fragmented care faced a number of challenges to using the doctor-patient relationship as a toolkit for decision-making. These challenges led to additional uncertainties and in some cases to poor outcomes for doctors and/or patients; they also raised concerns about the reproduction of inequality. Thus organization of care delivery mitigates the efficacy of doctors' use of the doctor-patient relationship toolkit for uncertain decisions. These findings have implications for theorizing about decision-making under conditions of medical uncertainty, for understanding how the doctor-patient relationship and model of care affect physician decision-making, and for forming policy on the optimal structure of medical work.