Discontinuities in robust nonparametric regression with α-mixing dependence

Characterizing the interruption-recovery patterns of urban air pollution under the COVID-19 lockdown in China

The COVID-19 pandemic provides an opportunity to study the effects of urban lockdown policies on the variation in pollutant concentrations and to characterize the recovery patterns of urban air pollution under the interruption of COVID-19 lockdown policies. In this paper, interruption-recovery models and regression discontinuity design were developed to characterize air pollution interruption-recovery patterns and analyze environmental impacts of the COVID-19 lockdown, using air pollution data from four Chinese metropolises (i.e., Shanghai, Wuhan, Tianjin, and Guangzhou). The results revealed the air pollutant interruption-recovery curve represented by the three lockdown response periods (Level I, Level II and Level III) during COVID-19. The curve decreased during Level I (A 25.3%-48.8% drop in the concentration of NO₂ has been observed in the four metropolises compared with the same period in 2018-2019.), then recovered around reopening, but decreased again during Level III. Moreover, the interruption-recovery curve of the year-on-year air pollution difference suggests a process of first decreasing during Level I and gradually recovering to a new equilibrium during Level III (e.g., the unit cumulative difference of NO₂ mass concentrations in Shanghai was 21.7, 22.5, 11.3 (μg/m³) during Level I, II, and III and other metropolises shared similar results). Our findings reveal general trends in the air quality externality of different lockdown policies, hence could provide valuable insights into air pollutant interruption-recovery patterns and clear scientific guides for policymakers to estimate the effect of different lockdown policies on urban air quality.

A New Kumaraswamy Generalized Family of Distributions with Properties, Applications, and Bivariate Extension

For bounded unit interval, we propose a new Kumaraswamy generalized (G) family of distributions through a new generator which could be an alternate to the Kumaraswamy-G family proposed earlier by Cordeiro and de Castro in 2011. This new generator can also be used to develop alternate G-classes such as beta-G, McDonald-G, Topp-Leone-G, Marshall-Olkin-G, and Transmuted-G for bounded unit interval. Some mathematical properties of this new family are obtained and maximum likelihood method is used for the estimation of G-family parameters. We investigate the properties of one special model called the new Kumaraswamy-Weibull (NKwW) distribution. Parameters of NKwW model are estimated by using maximum likelihood method, and the performance of these estimators are assessed through simulation study. Two real life data sets are analyzed to illustrate the importance and flexibility of the proposed model. In fact, this model outperforms some generalized Weibull models such as the Kumaraswamy-Weibull, McDonald-Weibull, beta-Weibull, exponentiated-generalized Weibull, gamma-Weibull, odd log-logistic-Weibull, Marshall-Olkin-Weibull, transmuted-Weibull and exponentiated-Weibull distributions when applied to these data sets. The bivariate extension of the family is also proposed, and the estimation of parameters is dealt. The usefulness of the bivariate NKwW model is illustrated empirically by means of a real-life data set.