Does vitamin D deficiency account for ethnic differences in tuberculosis seasonality in the UK?

Analyzing the seasonality of tuberculosis case notifications in the UK, 2000-2018

Globally, there is seasonal variation in tuberculosis (TB) incidence, yet the biological and behavioural or social factors driving TB seasonality differ across countries. Understanding season-specific risk factors that may be specific to the UK could help shape future decision-making for TB control. We conducted a time-series analysis using data from 152,424 UK TB notifications between 2000 and 2018. Notifications were aggregated by year, month, and socio-demographic covariates, and negative binomial regression models fitted to the aggregate data. For each covariate, we calculated the size of the seasonal effect as the incidence risk ratio (IRR) for the peak versus the trough months within the year and the timing of the peak, whilst accounting for the overall trend. There was strong evidence for seasonality (p < 0.0001) with an IRR of 1.27 (95% CI 1.23-1.30). The peak was estimated to occur at the beginning of May. Significant differences in seasonal amplitude were identified across age groups, ethnicity, site of disease, latitude and, for those born abroad, time since entry to the UK. The smaller amplitude in older adults, and greater amplitude among South Asians and people who recently entered the UK may indicate the role of latent TB reactivation and vitamin D deficiency in driving seasonality.

Seasonality of tuberculosis in intermediate endemicity setting dominated by reactivation diseases in Hong Kong

Summer-spring predominance of tuberculosis (TB) has been widely reported. The relative contributions of exogenous recent infection versus endogenous reactivation to such seasonality remains poorly understood. Monthly TB notifications data between 2005 and 2017 in Hong Kong involving 64,386 cases (41% aged ≥ 65; male-to-female ratio 1.74:1) were examined for the timing, amplitude, and predictability of variation of seasonality. The observed seasonal variabilities were correlated with demographics and clinical presentations, using wavelet analysis coupled with dynamic generalised linear regression models. Overall, TB notifications peaked annually in June and July. No significant annual seasonality was demonstrated for children aged ≤ 14 irrespective of gender. The strongest seasonality was detected in the elderly (≥ 65) among males, while seasonal pattern was more prominent in the middle-aged (45–64) and adults (30–44) among females. The stronger TB seasonality among older adults in Hong Kong suggested that the pattern has been contributed largely by reactivation diseases precipitated by defective immunity whereas seasonal variation of recent infection was uncommon.

Delay effect and burden of weather-related tuberculosis cases in Rajshahi province, Bangladesh, 2007-2012

Tuberculosis (TB) is a potentially fatal infectious disease that continues to be a public health problem in Bangladesh. Each year in Bangladesh an estimated 70,000 people die of TB and 300,000 new cases are projected. It is important to understand the association between TB incidence and weather factors in Bangladesh in order to develop proper intervention programs. In this study, we examine the delayed effect of weather variables on TB occurrence and estimate the burden of the disease that can be attributed to weather factors. We used generalized linear Poisson regression models to investigate the association between weather factors and TB cases reported to the Bangladesh National TB control program between 2007 and 2012 in three known endemic districts of North-East Bangladesh. The associated risk of TB in the three districts increases with prolonged exposure to temperature and rainfall, and persisted at lag periods beyond 6 quarters. The association between humidity and TB is strong and immediate at low humidity, but the risk decreases with increasing lag. Using the optimum weather values corresponding to the lowest risk of infection, the risk of TB is highest at low temperature, low humidity and low rainfall. Measures of the risk attributable to weather variables revealed that weather-TB cases attributed to humidity is higher than that of temperature and rainfall in each of the three districts. Our results highlight the high linearity of temporal lagged effects and magnitudes of the burden attributable to temperature, humidity, and rainfall on TB endemics. The results can hopefully advise the Bangladesh National TB control program and act as a practical reference for the early warning of TB cases.

Drivers of Seasonal Variation in Tuberculosis Incidence: Insights from a Systematic Review and Mathematical Model

BACKGROUND

Seasonality in tuberculosis incidence has been widely observed across countries and populations; however, its drivers are poorly understood. We conducted a systematic review of studies reporting seasonal patterns in tuberculosis to identify demographic and ecologic factors associated with timing and magnitude of seasonal variation.

METHODS

We identified studies reporting seasonal variation in tuberculosis incidence through PubMed and EMBASE and extracted incidence data and population metadata. We described key factors relating to seasonality and, when data permitted, quantified seasonal variation and its association with metadata. We developed a dynamic tuberculosis natural history and transmission model incorporating seasonal differences in disease progression and/or transmission rates to examine magnitude of variation required to produce observed seasonality in incidence.

RESULTS

Fifty-seven studies met inclusion criteria. In the majority of studies (n=49), tuberculosis incidence peaked in spring or summer and reached a trough in late fall or winter. A standardized seasonal amplitude was calculated for 34 of the studies, resulting in a mean of 17.1% (range: 2.7-85.5%) after weighting by sample size. Across multiple studies, stronger seasonality was associated with younger patients, extrapulmonary disease, and latitudes farther from the Equator. The mathematical model was generally able to reproduce observed levels of seasonal case variation; however, substantial variation in transmission or disease progression risk was required to replicate several extreme values.

CONCLUSIONS

We observed seasonal variation in tuberculosis, with consistent peaks occurring in spring, across countries with varying tuberculosis burden. Future research is needed to explore and quantify potential gains from strategically conducting mass screening interventions in the spring.

Relationship between climatic factors and air quality with tuberculosis in the Federal District, Brazil, 2003-2012

INTRODUCTION

Despite the high rate of tuberculosis indicators in Brazil, the Federal District shows a low prevalence of the disease.

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the relationship between climatic factors and air quality with tuberculosis in the Brazilian Federal District.

METHODOLOGY

This was an ecological and descriptive study comparing 3927 new cases of Tuberculosis registered at the Federal District Tuberculosis Control Program with data from the National Institute of Meteorology, Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, Brazilian Agricultural Research Institute, Brasilia Environmental Institute, and the Federal District Planning Company.

RESULTS

From 2003 to 2012, there has been a higher incidence of Tuberculosis (27.0%) in male patients in the winter (27.2%). Patients under 15 years of age (28.6%) and older than 64 years (27.1%) were more affected in the fall. For youth and adults (15-64 years), the highest number of cases was reported during winter (44.3%). The disease was prevalent with ultraviolet radiation over 17MJ/m2 (67.8%; p=<0.001); relative humidity between 31.0% and 69.0% (95.8% of cases; p=<0.00); 12h of daily sunlight or more (40.6%; p=0.001); and temperatures between 20°C and 23°C (72.4%; p=<0.001). In the city of Taguatinga and surrounding area, pollution levels dropped to 15.2% between 2003 and 2012. Smoke levels decreased to 31.9%. In the Sobradinho region, particulate matter dropped to 13.1% and smoke to 19.3%, coinciding with the reduction of Tuberculosis incidence rates during the same period.

CONCLUSION

The results should guide surveillance actions for Tuberculosis control and elimination and indicate the need to expand observation time to new climate indicators and air quality.

On the association between outdoor PM2.5 concentration and the seasonality of tuberculosis for Beijing and Hong Kong

Tuberculosis (TB) is still a serious public health problem in various countries. One of the long-elusive but critical questions about TB is what the risk factors are and how they contribute for its seasonality. An ecologic study was conducted to examine the association between the variation of outdoor PM_2.5 concentration and the TB seasonality based on the monthly TB notification and PM_2.5 concentration data of Hong Kong and Beijing. Both descriptive analysis and Poisson regression analysis suggested that the outdoor PM_2.5 concentration could be a potential risk factor for the seasonality of TB disease. The significant relationship between the number of TB cases and PM_2.5 concentration was not changed when regression models were adjusted by sunshine duration, a potential confounder. The regression analysis showed that a 10 μg/m³ increase in PM_2.5 concentrations during winter is significantly associated with a 3% (i.e. 18 and 14 cases for Beijing and Hong Kong, respectively) increase in the number of TB cases notified during the coming spring or summer for both Beijing and Hong Kong. Three potential mechanisms were proposed to explain the significant relationship: (1) increased PM_2.5 exposure increases host's susceptibility to TB disease by impairing or modifying the immunology of the human respiratory system; (2) increased indoor activities during high outdoor PM_2.5 episodes leads to an increase in human contact and thus the risk of TB transmission; (3) the seasonal change of PM_2.5 concentration is correlated with the variation of other potential risk factors of TB seasonality. Preliminary evidence from the analysis of this work favors the first mechanism about the PM_2.5 exposure-induced immunity impairment. This work adds new horizons to the explanation of the TB seasonality and improves our understanding of the potential mechanisms affecting TB incidence, which benefits the prevention and control of TB disease.

Determinants of serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D in Hong Kong

Vitamin D plays an important role in skeletal health throughout life. Some studies have hypothesised that vitamin D may reduce the risk of other diseases. Our study aimed to estimate age-specific and sex-specific serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) status and to identify the determinants of serum 25(OH)D status in Hong Kong, a subtropical city in southern China. In 2009–2010, households in Hong Kong were followed up to identify acute respiratory illnesses, and sera from 2694 subjects were collected in three to four different study phases to permit measurement of 25(OH)D levels at different times of the year. A questionnaire survey on diet and lifestyle was conducted among children, with simultaneous serum collection in April and May 2010. The mean of serum 25(OH)D levels in age groups ranged from 39 to 63 nmol/l throughout the year with the mean values in all age groups in spring below 50 nmol/l. Children aged 6–17 years, and girls and women had significantly lower serum 25(OH)D levels than adults, and boys and men, respectively (allP< 0·001). We estimated that serum 25(OH)D levels in Hong Kong followed a lagged pattern relative to climatic season by 5 weeks with lowest observed levels in early spring (March). For children aged 6–17 years, reporting a suntan, having at least 1 servings of fish/week and having at least 1 serving of eggs/week were independently associated with higher serum 25(OH)D levels. Adequate sunlight exposure and increased intake of dietary vitamin D could improve vitamin D status, especially for children and females in the winter and spring.

Latent tuberculosis infection--Revisiting and revising concepts

Host- and pathogen-specific factors interplay with the environment in a complex fashion to determine the outcome of infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb), resulting in one of three possible outcomes: cure, latency or active disease. Although much remains unknown about its pathophysiology, latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) defined by immunologic evidence of Mtb infection is a continuum between self-cure and asymptomatic, yet active tuberculosis (TB) disease. Strain virulence, intensity of exposure to the index case, size of the bacterial inoculum, and host factors such as age and co-morbidities, each contribute to where one settles on the continuum. Currently, the diagnosis of LTBI is based on reactive tuberculin skin testing (TST) and/or a positive interferon-gamma release assay (IGRA). Neither diagnostic test reflects the activity of the infectious focus or the risk of progression to active TB. This is a critical shortcoming, as accurate and efficient detection of those with LTBI at higher risk of progression to TB disease would allow for provision of targeted preventive therapy to those most likely to benefit. Host biomarkers may prove of value in stratifying risk of development of TB. New guidelines are required for interpretation of discordance between TST and IGRA, which may be due in part to a lack of stability (that is reproducibility) of IGRA or TST results or to a delay in conversion of IGRA to positivity compared to TST. In this review, the authors elaborate on the definition, diagnosis, pathophysiology and natural history of LTBI, as well as promising methods for better stratifying risk of progression to TB. The review is centered on the human host and the clinical and epidemiologic features of LTBI that are relevant to the development of new and improved diagnostic tools.

Analyzing seasonality of tuberculosis across Indian states and union territories

A significant seasonal variation in tuberculosis (TB) is observed in north India during 2006-2011, particularly in states like Himachal Pradesh, Haryana and Rajasthan. To quantify the seasonal variation, we measure average amplitude (peak to trough distance) across seasons in smear positive cases of TB and observe that it is maximum for Himachal Pradesh (40.01%) and minimum for Maharashtra (3.87%). In north India, smear positive cases peak in second quarter (April-June) and reach a trough in fourth quarter (October-December), however low seasonal variation is observed in southern region of the country. The significant correlations as 0.64 (p-value<0.001), 0.54 (p-value<0.01) and 0.42 (p-value<0.05) are observed between minimum temperature and seasonality of TB at lag-1 in north, central and northeast India respectively. However, in south India, this correlation is not significant.

The ongoing challenge of latent tuberculosis

The global health community has set itself the task of eliminating tuberculosis (TB) as a public health problem by 2050. Although progress has been made in global TB control, the current decline in incidence of 2% yr(-1) is far from the rate needed to achieve this. If we are to succeed in this endeavour, new strategies to reduce the reservoir of latently infected persons (from which new cases arise) would be advantageous. However, ascertainment of the extent and risk posed by this group is poor. The current diagnostics tests (tuberculin skin test and interferon-gamma release assays) poorly predict who will develop active disease and the therapeutic options available are not optimal for the scale of the intervention that may be required. In this article, we outline a basis for our current understanding of latent TB and highlight areas where innovation leading to development of novel diagnostic tests, drug regimens and vaccines may assist progress. We argue that the pool of individuals at high risk of progression may be significantly smaller than the 2.33 billion thought to be immune sensitized by Mycobacterium tuberculosis and that identifying and targeting this group will be an important strategy in the road to elimination.

Seasonal variations in notification of active tuberculosis cases in China, 2005-2012

Background

Although seasonal variation in tuberculosis (TB) incidence has been described in many countries, it remains unknown in China.

Methods

A time series decomposition analysis (X-12-ARIMA) was performed to examine the seasonal variation in active TB cases nationwide from 2005 through 2012 in China. Seasonal amplitude was calculated for the evaluation of TB seasonal variation.

Results

A total of 7.78 million active TB cases were reported over a period of 8 years. A spring peak (April) was observed with seasonal amplitude of 46.3%, compared with the winter trough (February). Most cases in provinces with subtropical and tropical monsoon climate showed lower amplitudes than those in temperate continental, plateau and mountain climate regions. The magnitude of seasonality varied inversely with annual average temperature, r (95% CI) = -0.71 (-0.79, -0.61). The seasonal amplitudes were 56.7, 60.5, 40.6, 46.4 and 50.9% for patients aged ≤14, 15–24, 25–44, 45–64, and ≥65 years, respectively. Students demonstrated greater seasonal amplitude than peasants, migrant workers and workers (115.3% vs. 43.5, 41.6 and 48.1%). Patients with pulmonary TB had lower amplitude compared to patients with pleural and other extra-pulmonary TB (EPTB) (45.9% vs. 52.0 and 56.3%). Relapse cases with sputum smear positive TB (SS+ TB) had significantly higher seasonal amplitude compared to new cases with sputum smear positive TB (52.2% vs. 41.6%).

Conclusions

TB is a seasonal disease in China. The peak and trough of TB transmission actually are in winter and in autumn respectively after factors of delay are removed. Higher amplitudes of TB seasonality are more likely to happen in temperate continental, plateau and mountain climate regions and regions with lower annual average temperature, and young person, students, patients with EPTB and relapse cases with SS+ TB are more likely to be affected by TB seasonality.

Tuberculosis incidence correlates with sunshine: an ecological 28-year time series study

Background

Birmingham is the largest UK city after London, and central Birmingham has an annual tuberculosis incidence of 80 per 100,000. We examined seasonality and sunlight as drivers of tuberculosis incidence. Hours of sunshine are seasonal, sunshine exposure is necessary for the production of vitamin D by the body and vitamin D plays a role in the host response to tuberculosis.

Methods

We performed an ecological study that examined tuberculosis incidence in Birmingham from Dec 1981 to Nov 2009, using publicly-available data from statutory tuberculosis notifications, and related this to the seasons and hours of sunshine (UK Meteorological Office data) using unmeasured component models.

Results

There were 9,739 tuberculosis cases over the study period. There was strong evidence for seasonality, with notifications being 24.1% higher in summer than winter (p<0.001). Winter dips in sunshine correlated with peaks in tuberculosis incidence six months later (4.7% increase in incidence for each 100 hours decrease in sunshine, p<0.001).

Discussion and Conclusion

A potential mechanism for these associations includes decreased vitamin D levels with consequent impaired host defence arising from reduced sunshine exposure in winter. This is the longest time series of any published study and our use of statutory notifications means this data is essentially complete. We cannot, however, exclude the possibility that another factor closely correlated with the seasons, other than sunshine, is responsible. Furthermore, exposure to sunlight depends not only on total hours of sunshine but also on multiple individual factors. Our results should therefore be considered hypothesis-generating. Confirmation of a potential causal relationship between winter vitamin D deficiency and summer peaks in tuberculosis incidence would require a randomized-controlled trial of the effect of vitamin D supplementation on future tuberculosis incidence.

Seasonality of tuberculosis in the United States, 1993-2008

BACKGROUND

Although seasonal variation in tuberculosis incidence has been described in several recent studies, the mechanism underlying this seasonality remains unknown. Seasonality of tuberculosis disease may indicate the presence of season-specific risk factors that could potentially be controlled if they were better understood. We conducted this study to determine whether tuberculosis is seasonal in the United States and to describe patterns of seasonality in specific populations.

METHODS

We performed a time series decomposition analysis of tuberculosis cases reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention from 1993 through 2008. Seasonal amplitude of tuberculosis disease (the difference between the months with the highest and lowest mean case counts), was calculated for the population as a whole and for populations with select demographic, clinical, and epidemiologic characteristics.

RESULTS

A total of 243 432 laboratory-confirmed tuberculosis cases were reported over a period of 16 years. A mean of 21.4% more cases were diagnosed in March, the peak month, compared with November, the trough month. The magnitude of seasonality did not vary with latitude. The greatest seasonal amplitude was found among children aged <5 years and in cases associated with disease clusters.

CONCLUSIONS

Tuberculosis is a seasonal disease in the United States, with a peak in spring and trough in late fall. The latitude independence of seasonality suggests that reduced winter sunlight exposure may not be a strong contributor to tuberculosis risk. Increased seasonality among young children and clustered cases suggests that disease that is the result of recent transmission is more influenced by season than disease resulting from activation of latent infection.

Seasonal variation of serum vitamin D and the effect of vitamin D supplementation in Irish community-dwelling older people

BACKGROUND

Ireland is at 53°N, and its population risk of vitamin D deficiency is high. Previous Irish studies suggested a significant seasonality of serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] and a beneficial effect of supplementation in raising 25(OH)D levels. However, in Irish older people, little is known about the magnitude of the supplementation effect and whether supplementation affects 25(OH)D seasonality.

DESIGN

cross-sectional observational.

SETTING

outpatient clinic.

SUBJECTS

five hundred and forty-six community-dwelling subjects (mean age 73.0, SD 7.4; 68.5% females) were assessed between September 2007 and May 2009.

METHODS

for supplemented and non-supplemented: 'cosinor' analysis (Pulse_XP®) of monthly 25(OH)D. Period global solar radiation (GSR) and solar elevation angle (SEA) data were collected as proxy markers of ultraviolet-B radiation exposure. Multivariate linear regression was conducted to investigate the independent effect of GSR and SEA on 25(OH)D, controlling for confounders.

RESULTS

supplemented group (N = 183): 89.1% were on cholecalciferol 800 IU/day. Mean 25(OH)D = 64.1 (95% confidence interval: 52.2-75.8) nmol/l, with no significant seasonality; regression: neither GSR nor SEA predicted 25(OH)D. Non-supplemented group (N = 363): mean 25(OH)D = 40.3 (35.5-45.0) nmol/l, with significant seasonality (55.5% variance remaining), peak in August, amplitude = 6.0 (3.1-8.8) nmol/l; regression: both GSR (P = 0.002) and the interaction GSR * SEA (P = 0.018) predicted 25(OH)D.

CONCLUSIONS

vitamin D supplementation was associated with a mean serum 25(OH)D increase of 23.8 nmol/l. Interestingly, supplementation seemed to blunt seasonality. In the supplemented group, 72.1% had individual 25(OH)D levels below the recommended 75 nmol/l. There is a case for universal supplementation in Irish older people, probably at a higher dose. Further research is needed to establish the optimum dose.

Unusual climatic conditions and infectious diseases: observations made by Hippocrates

About 2500 years ago, Hippocrates made noteworthy observations about the influence of climate on public health. He believed that people living in cities with different climate may suffer from different diseases. Hippocrates also observed that abrupt climatic changes or unusual weather conditions affect public health, especially the incidence and severity of various infectious diseases, including gastrointestinal infections, tuberculosis, and central nervous system infections. We believe that Hippocrates' scientific observations are great early historic examples that stress to modern infectious diseases researchers and clinicians the need to study intensively the effect of the occurring global climate changes to infectious diseases in order to help in the prevention of possible epidemics of infections.

The Seasonal Risk for Deliberate Self-Harm

Groups at seasonal risk for deliberate self-harm (DSH) vary according to their geographic location. It is unknown, however, if seasonal risk factors for DSH are associated with place of birth or place of residence as these are confounded in all studies to date. In order to disaggregate place of birth from place of residence we examined general and seasonal risk factors for DSH in three different population birth groups living in Western Australia: Australian Aborigines, Australian born non-Aborigines, and UK migrants. We found Aborigines are at much higher general risk for DSH than non-Aborigines, but are not at seasonal risk, whereas non-Aboriginal Australians and UK migrants are. For UK migrants, this is only found for females. For all groups at seasonal risk this peaks during the austral (southern hemisphere) spring/summer. Furthermore, non-Aboriginal Australians and UK migrants show a consistent pattern of increased case fatality with increasing age. In contrast, case fatality does not increase with age among Australian Aborigines. Overall, despite living in the same environment, the three birth groups show different patterns of seasonal risk for DSH. In particular, the sex difference found between UK migrants and non-Aboriginal Australian birth groups suggests that predisposition toward seasonal risk for DSH is established early in life, but when present this is expressed according to local conditions.

Reactivation of tuberculosis and vitamin D deficiency: the contribution of diet and exposure to sunlight

BACKGROUND

As well as its role in the regulation of calcium metabolism, vitamin D is an immunoregulatory hormone. Epidemiological evidence also suggests a link between vitamin D deficiency and tuberculosis (TB). A study was undertaken to examine serum vitamin D concentrations before treatment in patients with active TB and their contacts from the same ethnic and social background and to investigate the relative contributions of diet and sunlight exposure.

METHODS

Serum vitamin D concentrations were measured before treatment in 178 patients with active TB and 130 healthy contacts. The prevalence of vitamin D deficiency and its relation to skin colour, month of estimation and TB diagnosis were determined. 35 patients and 35 frequency-matched contacts completed dietary and sun exposure questionnaires to determine the relative contribution of these to serum vitamin D concentrations.

RESULTS

There was a statistically significant difference in serum vitamin D concentrations between patients and contacts (20.1 vs 30.8 nmol/l, 95% CI 7.1 to 14.3; p<0.001) and significantly more patients had severely deficient concentrations (<21 nmol/l) than controls (114/178 (64%) vs 40/130 (31%), p<0.001). There was no association between serum concentrations of vitamin D and skin pigmentation. The healthy contacts showed a predictable seasonal pattern, rising to peak concentrations in the summer months, but this response was absent in patients with TB. Dietary intake was the same in both patients with TB and contacts matched for age, sex and skin colour, but patients with TB displayed a stronger correlation between serum vitamin D concentrations and dietary intake (r = 0.42, p = 0.016) than controls (r = 0.13, p>0.1). There was no difference in sunlight exposure between the groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with active TB have lower serum vitamin D concentrations than contacts from similar ethnic and social backgrounds and with comparable dietary intake and sun exposure, and do not show the expected seasonal variation. These observations indicate that other factors are contributing to vitamin D deficiency in patients with TB and suggest abnormal handling of this vitamin.

Prevalence and associations of vitamin D deficiency in foreign-born persons with tuberculosis in London

OBJECTIVES

The incidence of tuberculosis (TB) is high amongst foreign-born persons resident in developed countries. Vitamin D is important in the host defence against TB in vitro and deficiency may be an acquired risk factor for this disease. We aimed to determine the incidence and associations of vitamin D deficiency in TB patients diagnosed at an infectious diseases unit in London, UK.

METHODS

Case-note analysis of 210 unselected patients diagnosed with TB who had plasma vitamin D (25(OH)D3) levels routinely measured. Prevalence of 25(OH)D3 deficiency and its relationship to ethnic origin, religion, site of TB, sex, age, duration in the UK, month of 25(OH)D3 estimation and TB diagnosis were determined.

RESULTS

Of 210 patients 76% were 25(OH)D3 deficient and 56% had undetectable levels. 70/82 Indian, 24/28 East African Asian, 29/34 Somali, 14/19 Pakistani and Afghani, 16/22 Sri Lankan and 2/6 other African patients were deficient (with 58, 17, 23, 9, 6 and 1 having undetectable levels, respectively). Only 0/6 white Europeans and 1/8 Chinese/South East Asians had low plasma 25(OH)D3 levels. Muslims, Hindus and Sikhs all had equivalent rates of deficiency though Hindus were more likely to have undetectable levels (odds ratio 1.87, 95% CI 1.27-2.76). There was no significant association between 25(OH)D3 level and site of TB or duration of residence in the UK. There was no apparent seasonal variation in either TB diagnosis or 25(OH)D3 level.

CONCLUSIONS

25(OH)D3 deficiency commonly associates with TB among all ethnic groups apart from white Europeans, and Chinese/South East Asians. Our data support a lack of sunlight exposure and potentially a vegetarian diet as contributors to this deficiency.

Seasonal pattern of tuberculosis in Hong Kong

BACKGROUND

Summer predominance of tuberculosis (TB) was reported previously in temperate regions. No consistent data were available for lower latitudes.

METHOD

The monthly TB notification data in Hong Kong from 1991 to 2002 were examined for seasonal fluctuation. A seasonal model was then developed after standardization by period, sex, age, history of TB, form of disease, and bacteriological status.

RESULTS

The raw monthly counts showed remarkably consistent seasonal fluctuation across different periods, sexes, and age groups. A sine model was fitted for 82 104 notifications (adjusted R(2) = 0.373, P < 0.001). A summer peak was observed with seasonal fluctuation of 18.4% (P < 0.001), which was substantially higher than that reported previously for temperate regions. The amplitudes of fluctuation were 35.0, 15.0, 19.0, and 20.2% for those aged < or =14, 15-34, 35-64, and >/=65 years, respectively (all P < 0.001). No gender difference was noted (18.2% vs 19.0%, P = 0.790). Seasonal pattern was detected among new cases (18.6%, P < 0.001), but not retreatment cases (5.2%, P = 0.333). Culture-positive cases showed greater fluctuation than culture-negative cases (29.4% vs 6.4%, P < 0.001). No significant difference was found between pulmonary and extrapulmonary cases (16.8% vs 21.6%, P = 0.356). TB cases notified in summer were more likely to be smear-positive [odds ratio (OR) 1.100, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.045-1.158, P < 0.001] and culture-positive (OR 1.175, 95% CI 1.121-1.232, P < 0.001) than those notified in winter, even after stratification by other key variables.

CONCLUSION

A consistent seasonal pattern was found, with variable amplitudes of fluctuation in different subgroups and differing disease characteristics in different seasons. These observations are suggestive of the presence of a seasonal disease-modifying factor.