Application of a postnatal prediction model of survival in CDH in the era of fetal therapy

Survival and Predictors of Mortality of Congenital Diaphragmatic Hernia in Newborns at a Tertiary Care Hospital in Saudi Arabia

Background Congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH) is a condition where abdominal contents protrude into the chest due to defects in the diaphragm muscle. It is considered an emergency that needs urgent intervention to prevent further complications or death. Our study aimed to estimate survival and evaluate predictors of mortality in newborns with CDH using available prediction tools in the literature. Methods This retrospective cohort study included neonates with CDH in King Abdulaziz Medical City (KAMC), Jeddah, from 2000 to 2021. Prevalence, demographics, and clinical characteristics were compared between surviving and deceased infants. C-statistics were used to measure the area under the curve for the prenatal and postnatal predictor tools, and a p-value of <0.05 was considered significant. Results Between 2000 and 2021, 45 neonates with CDH were included (six per 10,000 inborn live births). The mortality rate was 51.1%. The differences in demographics were not significant among surviving and deceased patients. One prenatal predictor tool, the lung-to-head ratio, was found to be significant; in addition, three postnatal predictor tools of mortality, SNAP-II, CDHSG-probability survival, and Brindle Score, had the highest concordance (C) statistics of 0.8, 0.79, and 0.8, respectively. Conclusion Although the incidence of CDH was found to be higher in our study compared to global statistics, our mortality rates correspond with international figures. The most significant differences between predictors and prediction models of mortality were lung-to-head ratio prenatally, SNAP-II, CDHSG-probability survival, and Brindle Score postnatally. Further multicentered studies are recommended with a larger sample size.

Sex-Specific Differences in Congenital Diaphragmatic Hernia Mortality

OBJECTIVE

To compare disease severity and mortality differences between female and male patients with congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH).

STUDY DESIGN

We queried the CDH Study Group (CDHSG) database for CDH neonates managed between 2007 and 2018. Female and males were compared in statistical analyses using t tests, χ² tests, and Cox regression, as appropriate (P ≤ .05).

RESULTS

There were 7288 CDH patients, of which 3048 (41.8%) were female. Females weighed less on average at birth than males (2.84 kg vs 2.97 kg, P < .001) despite comparable gestational age. Females had similar rates of extracorporeal life support (ECLS) utilization (27.8% vs 27.3%, P = .65). Although both cohorts had equivalent defect size and rates of patch repair, female patients had increased rates of intrathoracic liver herniation (49.2% vs 45.9%, P = .01) and pulmonary hypertension (PH) (86.6% vs 81.1%, P < .001). Females had lower survival rates at 30-days (77.3% vs 80.1%, P = .003) and overall lower survival to discharge (70.2% vs 74.2%, P < .001). Subgroup analysis revealed that increased mortality was significant among those who underwent repair but were never supported on ECLS (P = .005). On Cox regression analysis, female sex was independently associated with mortality (adjusted hazard ratio 1.32, P = .02).

CONCLUSION

After controlling for the established prenatal and postnatal predictors of mortality, female sex remains independently associated with a higher risk of mortality in CDH. Further study into the underlying causes for sex-specific disparities in CDH outcomes is warranted.

Congenital diaphragmatic hernia survival in an English regional ECMO center

Introduction

Congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH) remains a cause of neonatal death. Our aims are to describe contemporary rates of survival and the variables associated with this outcome, contrasting these with our study of two decades earlier and recent reports.

Materials and methods

A retrospective review of all infants diagnosed in a regional center between January 2000 and December 2020 was performed. The outcome of interest was survival. Possible explanatory variables included side of defect, use of complex ventilatory or hemodynamic strategies (inhaled nitric oxide (iNO), high-frequency oscillatory ventilation (HFOV), extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO), and Prostin), presence of antenatal diagnosis, associated anomalies, birth weight, and gestation. Temporal changes were studied by measuring outcomes in each of four consecutive 63-month periods.

Results

A total of 225 cases were diagnosed. Survival was 60% (134 of 225). Postnatal survival was 68% (134 of 198 liveborn), and postrepair survival was 84% (134 of 159 who survived to repair). Diagnosis was made antenatally in 66% of cases. Variables associated with mortality were the need for complex ventilatory strategies (iNO, HFOV, Prostin, and ECMO), antenatal diagnosis, right-sided defects, use of patch repair, associated anomalies, birth weight, and gestation. Survival has improved from our report of a prior decade and did not vary during the study period. Postnatal survival has improved despite fewer terminations. On multivariate analysis, the need for complex ventilation was the strongest predictor of death (OR=50, 95% CI 13 to 224, p<0.0001), and associated anomalies ceased to be predictive.

Conclusions

Survival has improved from our earlier report, despite reduced numbers of terminations. This may be related to increased use of complex ventilatory strategies.

Development and internal validation of a prediction model to predict survival for congenital diaphragmatic hernia in the early postnatal period

PURPOSE

To develop an easily applied predictive model to predict survival rate for infants with congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH) in the early postnatal period according to the Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) guideline.

METHODS

The retrospective study was conducted including 225 neonates with prenatal or postnatal diagnosed CDH between 2001 and 2018. Patients did not receive the therapy of fetal endoscopic tracheal occlusion and extracorporeal membrane oxygenation. The study took into consideration these variables that are easily available in most centers within the first 1 h after admission. A multivariable prediction model to predict the survival rate for CDH was generated and its performance was analyzed.

RESULTS

The multiple logistic regression analysis was generated using five clinical variables that are routinely available in most centers, including birth weight, 1-min Apgar score, side of hernia, presence of liver herniation, and PaCO₂ in the admission arterial blood analysis. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve value for this model was 0.912, which was greater than that of a single biomarker in predicting the survival rate of CDH. This model had a sensitivity of 90.6% and a specificity of 74.6%. This model demonstrated good calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, p = .410). Besides, the model had a better discriminative ability compared to the previously established predictive models of CDH.

CONCLUSIONS

The simple and generalizable model was developed by five predictors for CDH in the early period using the TRIPOD checklist. It demonstrated good performance in predicting the survival rate of infants with CDH, holding promise for future clinical application.

Comparison of CDHSG model and PCO2 in predicting mortality risk in patients with congenital diaphragmatic hernia

Congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH) is one of the illnesses with high mortality and morbidity rates. The study aims to compare the Congenital Diaphragmatic Hernia Study Group (CDHSG) model and PCO₂ in determining the mortality risk of CDH in the early postnatal period in neonates. The data of 35 patients who were treated CDH were analyzed retrospectively. The sex, gestational age, birth weight, delivery method, presence of chromosomal anomaly, congenital cardiac and other anomalies, pulmonary hypertension, the 5-min Apgar score, PCO₂ values of blood gas in the first 24 h, mode of ventilation were recorded. According to the CDHSG model, the mortality risk of CDH was divided into three categories: as low, moderate, high risk. Based on the blood gases in the first 24 h after delivery, the CDH mortality risk was considered in two categories as low and high. Based on the CDHSG model, the risk of CDH mortality was low in 11.4%, moderate in 20%, and high in 68.6%. Mortality rates were 0%, 42.8%, and 83.3%, respectively. Based on the PaCO₂ , the risk of CDH mortality was low in 37.1% of patients and high in 62.8%. The mortality rate was 86.3% in high-severity patients and 30.7% in low-risk patients. No significant difference was found between the area under the curve values of the CDHSG model and PCO₂ . Especially in developing countries, in cases where opportunities are limited, the severity of the disease, the need for more aggressive treatment, and the need for higher-level intensive care can be determined with the easily accessible and low-cost blood gas PCO₂ at the bedside.

Pulmonary hypertension in congenital diaphragmatic hernia: ANTENATAL PREDICTION AND IMPACT ON NEONATAL MORTALITY

OBJECTIVE

To determine the prevalence of pulmonary hypertension(PAH) in left-sided congenital diaphragmatic hernia(CDH); how we could predict it; and how PAH contributed to the model for mortality prediction.

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective analysis in three European centers. The primary outcome was the presence of PAH on postnatal day(d)1,7, and at discharge. Studied predictors of PAH were: observed/expected-lung/head-ratio(o/e LHR), liver-herniation, FETO, and gestational age(GA) at delivery. The combined effect of pre-and postnatal variables on mortality was modeled by Cox regression.

RESULTS

Of the 197 neonates, 56(28.4%) died. At d1, 67.5%(133/197) had PAH and 61.9% (101/163) by d7. Overall, 6.4% (9/141) had PAH at discharge.At d1, o/eLHR(OR 0.96) and FETO(OR 2.99) independently correlated to PAH(AUC:0.74). At d7, PAH significantly correlated only with the use of FETO (OR 3.9;AUC:0.65). None were significant for PAH at discharge.Combining the occurrence of PAH with antenatal biomarkers improved mortality prediction(p=0.02), in a model including o/eLHR(HR:0.94), FETO(HR:0.35), liver herniation(HR:16.78), and PAH(HR:15.95).

CONCLUSIONS

Antenatal prediction of PAH was only moderate. The postnatal occurrence of PAH further increases the risk of death. Whereas this may be used to counsel parents in the postnatal period, our study demonstrates there is a need to find more accurate antenatal predictors for PAH. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Congenital diaphragmatic hernia

Congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH) is a rare birth defect characterized by incomplete closure of the diaphragm and herniation of fetal abdominal organs into the chest that results in pulmonary hypoplasia, postnatal pulmonary hypertension owing to vascular remodelling and cardiac dysfunction. The high mortality and morbidity rates associated with CDH are directly related to the severity of cardiopulmonary pathophysiology. Although the aetiology remains unknown, CDH has a polygenic origin in approximately one-third of cases. CDH is typically diagnosed with antenatal ultrasonography, which also aids in risk stratification, alongside fetal MRI and echocardiography. At specialized centres, prenatal management includes fetal endoscopic tracheal occlusion, which is a surgical intervention aimed at promoting lung growth in utero. Postnatal management focuses on cardiopulmonary stabilization and, in severe cases, can involve extracorporeal life support. Clinical practice guidelines continue to evolve owing to the rapidly changing landscape of therapeutic options, which include pulmonary hypertension management, ventilation strategies and surgical approaches. Survivors often have long-term, multisystem morbidities, including pulmonary dysfunction, gastroesophageal reflux, musculoskeletal deformities and neurodevelopmental impairment. Emerging research focuses on small RNA species as biomarkers of severity and regenerative medicine approaches to improve fetal lung development.

Prediction tools in congenital diaphragmatic hernia

Because congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH) is characterized by a spectrum of severity, risk stratification is an essential component of care. In both the prenatal and postnatal periods, accurate prediction of outcomes may inform clinical decision-making, care planning, and resource allocation. This review examines the history and utility of the most well-established risk prediction tools currently available, and provides recommendations for their optimal use in the management of CDH patients.