Do we have an opioid crisis in Scandinavia? Time to act?

Risk factors for the development of opioid use disorder after first opioid prescription: a Swedish national study

BACKGROUND

We need to better understand the frequency and predictors of opioid use disorder (OUD) after first opioid prescription (OP).

METHODS

We followed 1 516 392 individuals from the Swedish population born 1980-2000, from 1 July 2007, until 31 Dec 2017. We examined putative risk predictors with univariable and multivariable Cox Models and the potential causal effects of predictors by propensity score and co-sibling analyses.

RESULT

Of the individuals in our cohort, 24.8% (375 404) received a first OP, of whom 3034 (0.90%) developed a subsequent first OUD. The hazard ratio (HR) (± 95% CIs) for OUD after OP equaled 7.10 (6.75-7.46), with a mean time to onset of 3.41 (2.39) years. The strongest putative risk factors for development of OUD after OP were prior psychiatric and substance use disorders, criminal behavior, parental divorce/death, poor school performance, current community deprivation, divorce, and male sex. Few predictors differed across sexes. OP renewal was associated with a HR of 3.66 (3.41-3.93) for OUD. Co-sibling and propensity score analyses suggested that at least a moderate proportion of the risk factor-OUD association was likely causal. A risk score to predict OUD after OP had an AUC of 0.85, where nearly 60% of cases scoring in the top decile.

CONCLUSIONS

In a general population sample, an OP represents a substantial risk factor for subsequent OUD. Many of the risk factors for OUD after OP can be readily assessed at the time of potential OP, permitting clinicians to evaluate the risk of iatrogenic OUD.

Predicting the Onset of Opioid Use Disorder in the Swedish General Population

OBJECTIVE

Given the public health importance of opioid use disorder (OUD), we sought to understand better its risk predictors in the Swedish general population.

METHOD

We examined the Swedish population, born 1950-1970 (n = 2,092,359), and followed through 2018. Using Cox, logistic, and co-sibling models, we explored associations between a wide range of putative risk factors and a first onset of OUD--assessed through medical, criminal, and pharmacy registers--in the entire cohort and in the cohort wherein prior cases of drug use disorder (DUD) were censored.

RESULTS

OUD was predicted by the following four risk factor domains: (a) externalizing syndromes, especially prior non-opioid DUD; (b) psychopathology; (c) psychosocial factors, including social class and immigrant and marital status; and (d) serious injuries and pain diagnoses. When predicting OUD as the first form of DUD, the importance of pain diagnoses as a predictor increased. Co-sibling analyses suggested that the association of some of these risk factors with OUD onset was likely largely causal, whereas others were a mixture of causal effects and familial confounding. An aggregate risk score from these individual risk factors had reasonable receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve performance.

CONCLUSIONS

OUD is a multifactorial syndrome for which risk can be meaningfully predicted by prior externalizing syndromes, internalizing and psychotic psychopathology, indicators of psychosocial status, and predictors of pain diagnoses. Some important differences were seen in the prediction of any OUD onset versus OUD onset as the first form of DUD. Much of the effect of these predictors appear, in co-sibling analyses, to likely reflect causal influences.

Factors associated with persistent opioid use after an upper extremity fracture

Aims

The increase in prescription opioid misuse and dependence is now a public health crisis in the UK. It is recognized as a whole-person problem that involves both the medical and the psychosocial needs of patients. Analyzing aspects of pathophysiology, emotional health, and social wellbeing associated with persistent opioid use after injury may inform safe and effective alleviation of pain while minimizing risk of misuse or dependence. Our objectives were to investigate patient factors associated with opioid use two to four weeks and six to nine months after an upper limb fracture.

Methods

A total of 734 patients recovering from an isolated upper limb fracture were recruited in this study. Opioid prescription was documented retrospectively for the period preceding the injury, and prospectively at the two- to four-week post-injury visit and six- to nine-month post-injury visit. Bivariate and multivariate analysis sought factors associated with opioid prescription from demographics, injury-specific data, Patient Reported Outcome Measurement Instrumentation System (PROMIS), Depression computer adaptive test (CAT), PROMIS Anxiety CAT, PROMIS Instrumental Support CAT, the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS), the Pain Self-efficacy Questionnaire (PSEQ-2), Tampa Scale for Kinesiophobia (TSK-11), and measures that investigate levels of social support.

Results

A new prescription of opioids two to four weeks after injury was independently associated with less social support (odds ratio (OR) 0.26, p < 0.001), less instrumental support (OR 0.91, p < 0.001), and greater symptoms of anxiety (OR 1.1, p < 0.001). A new prescription of opioids six to nine months after injury was independently associated with less instrumental support (OR 0.9, p < 0.001) and greater symptoms of anxiety (OR 1.1, p < 0.001).

Conclusion

This study demonstrates that potentially modifiable psychosocial factors are associated with increased acute and chronic opioid prescriptions following upper limb fracture. Surgeons prescribing opioids for upper limb fractures should be made aware of the screening and management of emotional and social health.

Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(2):119–124.

Prescription opioid analgesic use in France: Trends and impact on morbidity-mortality

BACKGROUND

While data from USA and Canada demonstrate an opioid overdose epidemic, very little nation-wide European studies have been published on this topical subject.

METHODS

Using a nationally representative sample of the French Claims database (>700,000 patients), the exhaustive nationwide hospital discharge database, and national mortality registry, all patients dispensed at least one prescription opioid (PO) in 2004-2017 were identified, to describe trends in PO analgesic use, shopping behaviour, opioid-related hospitalizations and deaths. Annual prevalence of PO use and shopping behaviour (≥1 day of overlapping prescriptions from ≥2 prescribers, dispensed by ≥3 pharmacies) was estimated.

RESULTS

In 2004-2017, the annual prevalence of weak opioid use codeine, tramadol and opium rose by 150%, 123%, and 244%, respectively (p < 0.05). Strong opioid use increased from 0.54% to 1.1% (+104%, p < 0.05), significantly for oxycodone (+1950%). Strong opioid use in chronic noncancer pain rose by 88% (p < 0.05) and 1180% for oxycodone. Opioid shopping increased from 0.50% to 0.67% (+34%, p < 0.05), associated with higher mortality risk HR = 2.8 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.2-6.4]. Opioid-related hospitalizations increased from 15 to 40 per 1,000,000 population (+167%, 2000-2017), and opioid-related deaths from 1.3 to 3.2 per 1,000,000 population (+146%, 2000-2015).

CONCLUSIONS

This study provided a first European approach to a nationwide estimation with complete access to several national registries. In 2004-2017 in France, PO use excluding dextropropoxyphene more than doubled. The increase in oxycodone and fentanyl use, and nontrivial increasing trend in opioid-related morbidity-mortality should prompt authorities to closely monitor PO consumption in order to prevent alarming increases in opioid-related morbidity-mortality.

SIGNIFICANCE

In 2004-2017, prescription opioid use in France at least doubled and oxycodone use increased particularly, associated with a nontrivial increase in opioid-related morbidity-mortality. Although giving no indication for an 'opioid epidemic,' these findings call for proper monitoring of opioid use.