Effect of marathon characteristics and runners' time category on pacing profile

Pacing strategies in marathons: A systematic review

Background

The pacing strategy embodies the tactical behavior of athletes in distributing their energy across different segments of a race; therefore, a quantitative analysis of pacing strategies in marathon races could deepen the understanding of both pacing behavior and physical capacity in marathon athletics.

Objective

The objective of this systematic review was to synthesize and characterize pacing strategies in marathon road races by exploring the categories of pacing strategies and the factors that influence these strategies during marathon events.

Methods

Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews guidelines were followed for systematic searches, appraisals, and syntheses of literature on this topic. Electronic databases such as Science Direct, SPORTDiscuss, PubMed, and Web of Science were searched up to July 2024. Records were eligible if they included pace performance measurements during competition, without experimental intervention that may influence their pace, in healthy, adult athletes at any level.

Results

A total of 39 studies were included in the review. Twenty-nine were observational studies, and 10 were experimental (randomized controlled trials). The assessment of article quality revealed an overall median NOS score of 8 (range 5-9). The included studies examined the pacing profiles of master athletes and finishers in half-marathon (n = 7, plus numbers compared to full marathon), full-marathon (n = 21), and ultramarathon (n = 11) road races. Considering that some studies refer to multiple pacing strategies, in general, 5 studies (∼13 %) reported even pacing, 3 (∼8 %) reported parabolic pacing, 7 (∼18 %) reported negative pacing, and 30 (∼77 %) reported positive pacing during marathon competitions. Gender, age, performance, pack, and physiological and psychological factors influence pacing strategies.

Conclusion

This study synthesized pacing performance in marathons and highlighted the significance of examining pacing strategies in these events, offering valuable insights for coaches and athletes. Several key findings were highlighted: (1) pacing profiles and pacing ranges were identified as the primary indicators of pacing strategies; (2) the pacing strategy was found to be dynamic, with the most substantial effects attributed to gender and distance; and (3) three distinct types of pacing strategies for marathons were classified: positive, negative, and even pacing. These findings advance the understanding of marathon pacing strategies by shedding light on the factors that influence athletes' pacing decisions and behaviors. Additionally, these findings offer practical benefits, aiding athletes in making well-informed tactical choices and developing effective pace plans to enhance marathon performance. However, due to the complex nature of marathon racing, further research is required to explore additional factors that might impact pacing strategies. A better grasp of optimal pacing strategies will foster progress in this area and serve as a basis for future research and advancements.

Consistency of pacing profile according to performance level in three different editions of the Chicago, London, and Tokyo marathons

Running pacing has become a focus of interest over recent years due to its relationship with performance, however, it is still unknown the consistency of each race in different editions. The aim of this study is to analyze the consistency of pacing profile in three consecutive editions of three marathon races. A database of 282,808 runners, compiled from three different races (Chicago, London, and Tokyo Marathon) and three editions (2017, 2018, and 2019) was analyzed. Participants were categorized according to their time performance in the marathon, every 30 min from 2:30 h to sub-6 h. The relative speed of each section for each runner was calculated as a percentage of the average speed for the entire race. The intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) of relative speed at the different pacing section, taking into account the runner time categories, was excellent over the three marathon editions (ICC > 0.93). The artificial intelligence model showed an accuracy of 86.8% to classify the runners' data in three marathons, suggesting a consistency between editions with identifiable differences between races. In conclusion, although some differences have been observed between editions in certain sections and marathon runner categories, excellent consistency of the pacing profile was observed. The study of pacing profile in a specific marathon can, therefore, be helpful for runners, coaches and marathon organizers for planning the race and improving its organization.

The Influence of Environmental Conditions on Pacing in Age Group Marathoners Competing in the “New York City Marathon”

Background: The two aspects of the influence of environmental conditions on marathon running performance and pacing during a marathon have been separately and widely investigated. The influence of environmental conditions on the pacing of age group marathoners has, however, not been considered yet.

Objective: The aim of the present study was to investigate the association between environmental conditions (i.e., temperature, barometric pressure, humidity, precipitation, sunshine, and cloud cover), gender and pacing of age group marathoners in the “New York City Marathon”.

Methodology: Between 1999 and 2019, a total of 830,255 finishes (526,500 males and 303,755 females) were recorded. Time-adjusted averages of weather conditions for temperature, barometric pressure, humidity, and sunshine duration during the race were correlated with running speed in 5 km-intervals for age group runners in 10 years-intervals.

Results: The running speed decreased with increasing temperatures in athletes of age groups 20–59 with a pronounced negative effect for men aged 30–64 years and women aged 40–64 years. Higher levels of humidity were associated with faster running speeds for both sexes. Sunshine duration and barometric pressure showed no association with running speed.

Conclusion: In summary, temperature and humidity affect pacing in age group marathoners differently. Specifically, increasing temperature slowed down runners of both sexes aged between 20 and 59 years, whereas increasing humidity slowed down runners of <20 and >80 years old.

Influence of advanced shoe technology on the top 100 annual performances in men's marathon from 2015 to 2019

The NIKE Vaporfly shoe was introduced in May 2017 as part of the original #Breaking2 Project (an event aimed to run the first marathon under 2 h). This new advanced shoe technology (NAST) changed the footwear design conception. The aim of this study was (i) to analyse the effect of NAST in men's marathon performance, (ii) to analyse whether the changes in the environmental constraints (temperature and wind) and orography of the marathons, age and birthplace of the runners has changed from 2015 to 2019 and (iii) to analyse the impact of NAST on the historical 50 best performances. Data from top-100 men's marathon performances were collected in that timeframe. The shoes used by the athletes were identified (in 91.8% of the cases) by publicly available photographs. External and environmental conditions of each marathon and age and birthplace of the runners were also analysed. Marathon performances improved from 2017 onwards between 0.75 and 1.50% compared to 2015 and 2016 (p < 0.05). In addition, the improvement was greater in the upper deciles than in the lower ones (p < 0.001). Runners wearing NAST ran ~ 1% faster in marathon compared to runners that did not use it (p < 0.001). When conducting an individual analysis of athletes who ran with and without NAST, 72.5% of the athletes who completed a marathon wearing NAST improved their performance by 0.68% (p < 0.01). External and environmental conditions, age or birthplace of runners seems not to have influenced this performance improvement. NAST has had a clear impact on marathon performance unchanged in the environmental constraints (temperature and wind), orography, age, and birthplace of the runners but with differences between venues.

Development and Validation of Prediction Equation of "Athens Authentic Marathon" Men's Race Speed

Aim

Despite the increasing popularity of outdoor endurance running races of different distances, little information exists about the role of training and physiological characteristics of recreational runners. The aim of the present study was (a) to examine the role of training and physiological characteristics on the performance of recreational marathon runners and (b) to develop a prediction equation of men’s race time in the “Athens Authentic Marathon.”

Methods

Recreational male marathon runners (n = 130, age 44.1 ± 8.6 years)—who finished the “Athens Authentic Marathon” 2017—performed a series of anthropometry and physical fitness tests including body mass index (BMI), body fat percentage (BF), maximal oxygen uptake (VO₂max), anaerobic power, squat, and countermovement jump. The variation of these characteristics was examined by quintiles (i.e., five groups consisting of 26 participants in each) of the race speed. An experimental group (EXP, n = 65) was used to develop a prediction equation of the race time, which was verified in a control group (CON, n = 65).

Results

In the overall sample, a one-way ANOVA showed a main effect of quintiles on race speed on weekly training days and distance, age, body weight, BMI, BF, and VO₂max (p ≤ 0.003, η² ≥ 0.121), where the faster groups outscored the slower groups. Running speed during the race correlated moderately with age (r = −0.36, p < 0.001) and largely with the number of weekly training days (r = 0.52, p < 0.001) and weekly running distance (r = 0.58, p < 0.001), but not with the number of previously finished marathons (r = 0.08, p = 0.369). With regard to physiological characteristics, running speed correlated largely with body mass (r = −0.52, p < 0.001), BMI (r = −0.60, p < 0.001), BF (r = −0.65, p < 0.001), VO₂max (r = 0.67, p < 0.001), moderately with isometric muscle strength (r = 0.42, p < 0.001), and small with anaerobic muscle power (r = 0.20, p = 0.021). In EXP, race speed could be predicted (R² = 0.61, standard error of the estimate = 1.19) using the formula “8.804 + 0.111 × VO₂max + 0.029 × weekly training distance in km −0.218 × BMI.” Applying this equation in CON, no bias was observed (difference between observed and predicted value 0.12 ± 1.09 km/h, 95% confidence intervals −0.15, 0.40, p = 0.122).

Conclusion

These findings highlighted the role of aerobic capacity, training, and body mass status for the performance of recreational male runners in a marathon race. The findings would be of great practical importance for coaches and trainers to predict the average marathon race time in a specific group of runners.

How recreational marathon runners hit the wall: A large-scale data analysis of late-race pacing collapse in the marathon

INTRODUCTION

In the marathon, how runners pace and fuel their race can have a major impact on race outcome. The phenomenon known as hitting the wall (HTW) refers to the iconic hazard of the marathon distance, in which runners experience a significant slowing of pace late in the race, typically after the 20-mile mark, and usually because of a depletion of the body's energy stores.

AIM

This work investigates the occurrence of significant late-race slowing among recreational marathoners, as a proxy for runners hitting the wall, to better understand the likelihood and nature of such slowdowns, and their effect on race performance.

METHODS

Using pacing data from more than 4 million race records, we develop a pacing-based definition of hitting the wall, by identifying runners who experience a sustained period of slowing during the latter stages of the marathon. We calculate the cost of these slowdowns relative to estimates of the recent personal-best times of runners and compare slowdowns according to runner sex, age, and ability.

RESULTS

We find male runners more likely to slow significantly (hit the wall) than female runners; 28% of male runners hit the wall compared with 17% of female runners, χ2(1, N = 1, 928, 813) = 27, 693.35, p < 0.01, OR = 1.43. Such slowdowns are more frequent in the 3 years immediately before and after a recent personal-best (PB) time; for example, 36% of all runners hit the wall in the 3 years before a recent PB compared with just 23% in earlier years, χ2(1, N = 509, 444) = 8, 120.74, p < 0.01, OR = 1.31. When runners hit the wall, males slow more than females: a relative slowdown of 0.40 vs. 0.37 is noted, for male and female runners, when comparing their pace when they hit the wall to their earlier race (5km-20km) pace, with t(475, 199) = 60.19, p < 0.01, d = 0.15. And male runners slow over longer distances than female runners: 10.7km vs. 9.6km, respectively, t(475, 199) = 68.44, p < 0.01, d = 0.17. Although, notably the effect size of these differences is small. We also find the finish-time costs of hitting the wall (lost minutes) to increase with ability; r2(7) = 0.91, p < 0.01 r2(7) = 0.81, p < 0.01 for male and female runners, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

While the findings from this study are consistent with qualitative results from earlier single-race or smaller-scale studies, the new insights into the risk and nature of slowdowns, based on the runner sex, age, and ability, have the potential to help runners and coaches to better understand and calibrate the risk/reward trade-offs that exist as they plan for future races.