Optimal control applied to community-acquired methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in hospitals

Sensitivity assessment of optimal control strategies and cost-effectiveness analysis of a novel Candida Auris environmental transmission model in intensive care facilities

Candida Auris is an emerging fungal pathogen flagged by CDC as a serious global health threat among nosocomial infections in the recent times. As an evolving pathogen that often goes misidentified or unidentified under standard laboratory tests, it has the ability to cause fatal infections among the target population involving patients with serious medical conditions admitted to intensive care facilities, due to its capacity to resist anti-fungal treatment and the ability to persist in the hospital environment for long periods. The subject of this paper is to develop a deterministic model to study the transmission nature of Candida Auris wherein measures like apt admission screening methods with weekly screening follow-ups, transmission prevention, proper treatment protocols and environmental disinfection procedures are introduced as constant mitigating controls into the model initially which are later redefined as variable control functions during the optimal control analysis. The theory of optimal control implemented into the model helps us to understand the sensitivity of each control strategy upon the behaviour of each state variable. Further, cost-effectiveness analysis is rigorously conducted using incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) to identify and rank the control strategies involved based on their economic efficiency. Numerical simulation for the optimal control analysis is performed in MATLAB using the Forward-Backward Sweep Method and the findings are illustrated graphically.

Impact of the WHO Integrated Stewardship Policy on the Control of Methicillin-Resistant Staphyloccus aureus and Third-Generation Cephalosporin-Resistant Escherichia coli: Using a Mathematical Modeling Approach

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and third-generation cephalosporin-resistant Escherichia coli (3GCREc) are community and hospital-associated pathogens causing serious infections among populations by infiltrating into hospitals and surrounding environment. These main multi-drug resistant or antimicrobial resistance (AMR) bacterial pathogens are threats to human health if not properly tackled and controlled. Tackling antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is one of the issues for the World Health Organization (WHO) to design a comprehensive set of interventions which also helps to achieve the end results of the developing indicators proposed by the same organization. A deterministic mathematical model is developed and studied to investigate the impact of the WHO policy on integrated antimicrobial stewardship activities to use effective protection measures to control the spread of AMR diseases such as MRSA and 3GCREc in hospital settings by incorporating the contribution of the healthcare workers in a hospital and the environment in the transmission dynamics of the diseases. The model also takes into account the parameters describing various intervention measures and is used to quantify their contribution in containing the diseases. The impact of combinations of various possible control measures on the overall dynamics of the disease under study is investigated. The model analysis suggests that the contribution of the interventions: screening and isolating the newly admitted patients, improving the hygiene in hospital settings, decolonizing the pathogen carriers, and increasing the frequency of disinfecting the hospital environment are effective tools to contain the disease from invading the population. The study revealed that without any intervention, the diseases will continue to be a major cause of morbidity and mortality in the affected communities. In addition, the study indicates that a coordinated implementation of the integrated control measures suggested by WHO is more effective in curtailing the spread of the diseases than piecemeal strategies. Numerical experiments are provided to support the theoretical analysis.

Clonal Distribution and Antibiotic Susceptibility of Staphylococcus aureus from Pediatric Patients: 8-Year Trends in a Children's Hospital in Colombia

Emergence of community-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (CA-MRSA) strains in healthcare settings has changed the hospital epidemiology of MRSA in the last few years. Despite a global increase in MRSA frequency, infections caused by methicillin-susceptible S. aureus (MSSA) have persisted in healthcare settings and the community. Staphylococcus aureus isolates were collected between 2009 and 2017 at the Children's Hospital of a Caribbean city in South America. Methicillin-resistant isolates were subjected to SCCmec typing. Representative isolates were analyzed by multilocus sequence typing (MLST) and spa typing. Antibiotic susceptibility was assessed by agar dilution method. D-zone test was performed in erythromycin-resistant isolates to determine macrolide/lincosamide/streptogramin resistance. Spa typing revealed 10 different spa types. The main epidemic clones circulating during the study period were: ST8-MRSA-IVc, ST923-MRSA-IVa and ST8-MRSA-IVa. The study found high frequencies of PVL genes and resistance to erythromycin and clindamycin in the isolates. This study provides the first description of the population structure of MRSA and MSSA causing infections attended in the participating Children's Hospital. ST8-MRSA-IVc, ST923-MRSA-IVa and ST8-MRSA-IVa were the most prevalent in the isolate population.

Effects of the proportion of high-risk patients and control strategies on the prevalence of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in an intensive care unit

Background

The presence of nosocomial pathogens in many intensive care units poses a threat to patients and public health worldwide. Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is an important pathogen endemic in many hospital settings. Patients who are colonized with MRSA may develop an infection that can complicate their prior illness.

Methods

A mathematical model to describe transmission dynamics of MRSA among high-risk and low-risk patients in an intensive care unit (ICU) via hands of health care workers is developed. We aim to explore the effects of the proportion of high-risk patients, the admission proportions of colonized and infected patients, the probability of developing an MRSA infection, and control strategies on MRSA prevalence among patients.

Results

The increasing proportion of colonized and infected patients at admission, along with the higher proportion of high-risk patients in an ICU, may significantly increase MRSA prevalence. In addition, the prevalence becomes higher if patients in the high-risk group are more likely to develop an MRSA infection. Our results also suggest that additional infection prevention and control measures targeting high-risk patients may considerably help reduce MRSA prevalence as compared to those targeting low-risk patients.

Conclusions

The proportion of high-risk patients and the proportion of colonized and infected patients in the high-risk group at admission may play an important role on MRSA prevalence. Control strategies targeting high-risk patients may help reduce MRSA prevalence.

Population-level mathematical modeling of antimicrobial resistance: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Mathematical transmission models are increasingly used to guide public health interventions for infectious diseases, particularly in the context of emerging pathogens; however, the contribution of modeling to the growing issue of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) remains unclear. Here, we systematically evaluate publications on population-level transmission models of AMR over a recent period (2006-2016) to gauge the state of research and identify gaps warranting further work.

METHODS

We performed a systematic literature search of relevant databases to identify transmission studies of AMR in viral, bacterial, and parasitic disease systems. We analyzed the temporal, geographic, and subject matter trends, described the predominant medical and behavioral interventions studied, and identified central findings relating to key pathogens.

RESULTS

We identified 273 modeling studies; the majority of which (> 70%) focused on 5 infectious diseases (human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), influenza virus, Plasmodium falciparum (malaria), Mycobacterium tuberculosis (TB), and methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA)). AMR studies of influenza and nosocomial pathogens were mainly set in industrialized nations, while HIV, TB, and malaria studies were heavily skewed towards developing countries. The majority of articles focused on AMR exclusively in humans (89%), either in community (58%) or healthcare (27%) settings. Model systems were largely compartmental (76%) and deterministic (66%). Only 43% of models were calibrated against epidemiological data, and few were validated against out-of-sample datasets (14%). The interventions considered were primarily the impact of different drug regimens, hygiene and infection control measures, screening, and diagnostics, while few studies addressed de novo resistance, vaccination strategies, economic, or behavioral changes to reduce antibiotic use in humans and animals.

CONCLUSIONS

The AMR modeling literature concentrates on disease systems where resistance has been long-established, while few studies pro-actively address recent rise in resistance in new pathogens or explore upstream strategies to reduce overall antibiotic consumption. Notable gaps include research on emerging resistance in Enterobacteriaceae and Neisseria gonorrhoeae; AMR transmission at the animal-human interface, particularly in agricultural and veterinary settings; transmission between hospitals and the community; the role of environmental factors in AMR transmission; and the potential of vaccines to combat AMR.

Optimal control of vaccination rate in an epidemiological model of Clostridium difficile transmission

The spore-forming, gram-negative bacteria Clostridium difficile can cause severe intestinal illness. A striking increase in the number of cases of C. difficile infection (CDI) among hospitals has highlighted the need to better understand how to prevent the spread of CDI. In our paper, we modify and update a compartmental model of nosocomial C. difficile transmission to include vaccination. We then apply optimal control theory to determine the time-varying optimal vaccination rate that minimizes a combination of disease prevalence and spread in the hospital population as well as cost, in terms of time and money, associated with vaccination. Various hospital scenarios are considered, such as times of increased antibiotic prescription rate and times of outbreak, to see how such scenarios modify the optimal vaccination rate. By comparing the values of the objective functional with constant vaccination rates to those with time-varying optimal vaccination rates, we illustrate the benefits of time-varying controls.