Predicting treatment outcome of drug-susceptible tuberculosis patients using machine-learning models

Clinical utilization of artificial intelligence in predicting therapeutic efficacy in pulmonary tuberculosis

Traditional methods for monitoring pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) treatment efficacy lack sensitivity, prompting the exploration of artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance monitoring. This review investigates the application of AI in monitoring anti-tuberculosis (ATTB) treatment, revealing its potential in predicting treatment duration, adverse reactions, outcomes, and drug resistance. It provides important insights into the potential of AI technology to enhance monitoring and management of ATTB treatment. Systematic search across six databases from 2013 to 2023 explored AI in forecasting PTB treatment efficacy. Support vector machine and convolutional neural network excel in treatment duration prediction, while random forest, artificial neural network, and classification and regression tree show promise in forecasting adverse reactions and outcomes. Neural networks and random forest are effective in predicting drug resistance. AI advancements offer improved monitoring strategies, better patient prognosis, and pave the way for future AI research in PTB treatment monitoring.

Deep learning and radiomics of longitudinal CT scans for early prediction of tuberculosis treatment outcomes

BACKGROUND

To predict tuberculosis (TB) treatment outcomes at an early stage, prevent poor outcomes ofdrug-resistant tuberculosis(DR-TB) and interrupt transmission.

METHODS

An internal cohort for model development consists of 204 bacteriologically-confirmed TB patients who completed anti-tuberculosis treatment, with one pretreatment and two follow-up CT images (612 scans). Three radiomics feature-based models (RM) with multiple classifiers of Bagging, Random forest and Gradient boosting and two deep-learning-based models (i.e., supervised deep-learning model, SDLM; weakly supervised deep-learning model, WSDLM) are developed independently. Prediction scores of RM and deep-learning models with respectively highest performance are fused to create new fusion models under different fusion strategies. An additional independent validation was conducted on the external cohort comprising 80 patients (160 scans).

RESULTS

For RM scheme, 16 optimal radiomics features are finally selected using longitudinal scans. The AUCs of RM for Bagging, Random forest and Gradient boosting were 0.789, 0.773 and 0.764 in the internal cohort and 0.840, 0.834 and 0.816 in the external cohort, respectively. For deep learning-based scheme, AUCs of SDLM and WSDLM were 0.767 and 0.661 in the internal cohort, and 0.823 and 0.651 in the external. The fusion model yields AUCs from 0.767 to 0.802 in the internal cohort, and from 0.831 to 0.857 in the external cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

Fusion of radiomics features and deep-learning model may have the potential to predict early failure outcome of DR-TB, which may be combined to help prevent poor TB treatment outcomes.

Deep learning on longitudinal CT scans: automated prediction of treatment outcomes in hospitalized tuberculosis patients

Three deep learning (DL)-based prediction models (PMs) using longitudinal CT images were developed to predict tuberculosis (TB) treatment outcomes. The internal dataset consists of 493 bacteriologically confirmed TB patients who completed the anti-tuberculosis treatment with three-time CT scans, including a pretreatment CT scan and two follow-up CT scans. PM1 was trained using only pretreatment CT scans, and PM2 and PM3 were developed by adding follow-up scans. An independent testing was performed on external dataset comprising 86 TB patients. The area under the curve for classifying success and drug-resistant (DR)-TB was improved on both internal (0.609 vs. 0.625 vs. 0.815) and external (0.627 vs. 0.705 vs. 0.735) dataset by adding follow-up scans. The accuracy and F1-score also showed an increasing tendency in the external test. Regular follow-up CT scans can aid in the treatment prediction, and special attention should be given to early intensive phase of treatment to identify high-risk DR-TB patients.

A machine learning approach to explore individual risk factors for tuberculosis treatment non-adherence in Mukono district

Despite the availability and implementation of well-known efficacious interventions for tuberculosis treatment by the Ministry of Health, Uganda (MoH), treatment non-adherence persists. Moreover, identifying a specific tuberculosis patient at risk of treatment non-adherence is still a challenge. Thus, this retrospective study, based on a record review of 838 tuberculosis patients enrolled in six health facilities, presents, and discusses a machine learning approach to explore the individual risk factors predictive of tuberculosis treatment non-adherence in the Mukono district, Uganda. Five classification machine learning algorithms, logistic regression (LR), artificial neural networks (ANN), support vector machines (SVM), random forest (RF), and AdaBoost were trained, and evaluated by computing their accuracy, F1 score, precision, recall, and the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) through the aid of a confusion matrix. Of the five developed and evaluated algorithms, SVM (91.28%) had the highest accuracy (AdaBoost, 91.05% performed better than SVM when AUC is considered as evaluation parameter). Looking at all five evaluation parameters globally, AdaBoost is quite on par with SVM. Individual risk factors predictive of non-adherence included tuberculosis type, GeneXpert results, sub-country, antiretroviral status, contacts below 5 years, health facility ownership, sputum test results at 2 months, treatment supporter, cotrimoxazole preventive therapy (CPT) dapsone status, risk group, patient age, gender, middle and upper arm circumference, referral, positive sputum test at 5 and 6 months. Therefore, machine learning techniques, specifically classification types, can identify patient factors predictive of treatment non-adherence and accurately differentiate between adherent and non-adherent patients. Thus, tuberculosis program management should consider adopting the classification machine learning techniques evaluated in this study as a screening tool for identifying and targeting suited interventions to these patients.

Using an Artificial Intelligence Approach to Predict the Adverse Effects and Prognosis of Tuberculosis

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the leading causes of death worldwide and a major cause of ill health. Without treatment, the mortality rate of TB is approximately 50%; with treatment, most patients with TB can be cured. However, anti-TB drug treatments may result in many adverse effects. Therefore, it is important to detect and predict these adverse effects early. Our study aimed to build models using an artificial intelligence/machine learning approach to predict acute hepatitis, acute respiratory failure, and mortality after TB treatment. Materials and Methods: Adult patients (age ≥ 20 years) who had a TB diagnosis and received treatment from January 2004 to December 2021 were enrolled in the present study. Thirty-six feature variables were used to develop the predictive models with AI. The data were randomly stratified into a training dataset for model building (70%) and a testing dataset for model validation (30%). These algorithms included XGBoost, random forest, MLP, light GBM, logistic regression, and SVM. Results: A total of 2248 TB patients in Chi Mei Medical Center were included in the study; 71.7% were males, and the other 28.3% were females. The mean age was 67.7 ± 16.4 years. The results showed that our models using the six AI algorithms all had a high area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) in predicting acute hepatitis, respiratory failure, and mortality, and the AUCs ranged from 0.920 to 0.766, 0.884 to 0.797, and 0.834 to 0.737, respectively. Conclusions: Our AI models were good predictors and can provide clinicians with a valuable tool to detect the adverse prognosis in TB patients early.

Implementation of a patient-centered mobile shared decision making platform and healthcare workers' evaluation: a case in a medical center

Shared decision making is a patient-centered clinical decision-making process that allows healthcare workers to share the existing empirical medical outcomes with patients before making critical decisions. This study aims to explore a project in a medical center of developing a mobile SDM in Taiwan. Chi Mei Medical Center developed the mobile SDM platform and conducted a survey of evaluation from healthcare workers. A three-tier platform that based on cloud infrastructure with seven functionalities was developed. The survey revealed that healthcare workers with sufficient SDM knowledge have an antecedent effect on the three perceptive factors of acceptance of mobile SDM. Resistance to change and perceived ease of use show significant effect on behavioral intention. We provided a comprehensive architecture of mobile SDM and observed the implementation in a medical center. The majority of healthcare workers expressed their acceptancem; however, resistance to change still present. It is, therefore, necessary to be eliminated by continuously promoting activities that highlight the advantages of the Mobile SDM platform. In clinical practice, we validated that the mobile SDM provides patients and their families with an easy way to express their concerns to healthcare workers improving significantly their relationship with each other.

Review and Updates on the Diagnosis of Tuberculosis

Diagnosis of tuberculosis, and especially the diagnosis of extrapulmonary tuberculosis, still faces challenges in clinical practice. There are several reasons for this. Methods based on the detection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) are insufficiently sensitive, methods based on the detection of Mtb-specific immune responses cannot always differentiate active disease from latent infection, and some of the serological markers of infection with Mtb are insufficiently specific to differentiate tuberculosis from other inflammatory diseases. New tools based on technologies such as flow cytometry, mass spectrometry, high-throughput sequencing, and artificial intelligence have the potential to solve this dilemma. The aim of this review was to provide an updated overview of current efforts to optimize classical diagnostic methods, as well as new molecular and other methodologies, for accurate diagnosis of patients with Mtb infection.

Data Science Methods for Nursing-Relevant Patient Outcomes and Clinical Processes: The 2019 Literature Year in Review

Data science continues to be recognized and used within healthcare due to the increased availability of large data sets and advanced analytics. It can be challenging for nurse leaders to remain apprised of this rapidly changing landscape. In this article, we describe our findings from a scoping literature review of papers published in 2019 that use data science to explore, explain, and/or predict 15 phenomena of interest to nurses. Fourteen of the 15 phenomena were associated with at least one paper published in 2019. We identified the use of many contemporary data science methods (eg, natural language processing, neural networks) for many of the outcomes. We found many studies exploring Readmissions and Pressure Injuries. The topics of Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning Acceptance, Burnout, Patient Safety, and Unit Culture were poorly represented. We hope that the studies described in this article help readers: (1) understand the breadth and depth of data science's ability to improve clinical processes and patient outcomes that are relevant to nurses and (2) identify gaps in the literature that are in need of exploration.

Benchmarking Machine Learning Models to Assist in the Prognosis of Tuberculosis

Tuberculosis (TB) is an airborne infectious disease caused by organisms in the Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) complex. In many low and middle-income countries, TB remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality. Once a patient has been diagnosed with TB, it is critical that healthcare workers make the most appropriate treatment decision given the individual conditions of the patient and the likely course of the disease based on medical experience. Depending on the prognosis, delayed or inappropriate treatment can result in unsatisfactory results including the exacerbation of clinical symptoms, poor quality of life, and increased risk of death. This work benchmarks machine learning models to aid TB prognosis using a Brazilian health database of confirmed cases and deaths related to TB in the State of Amazonas. The goal is to predict the probability of death by TB thus aiding the prognosis of TB and associated treatment decision making process. In its original form, the data set comprised 36,228 records and 130 fields but suffered from missing, incomplete, or incorrect data. Following data cleaning and preprocessing, a revised data set was generated comprising 24,015 records and 38 fields, including 22,876 reported cured TB patients and 1139 deaths by TB. To explore how the data imbalance impacts model performance, two controlled experiments were designed using (1) imbalanced and (2) balanced data sets. The best result is achieved by the Gradient Boosting (GB) model using the balanced data set to predict TB-mortality, and the ensemble model composed by the Random Forest (RF), GB and Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) models is the best model to predict the cure class.

Systematic review of prediction models for pulmonary tuberculosis treatment outcomes in adults

OBJECTIVE

To systematically review and critically evaluate prediction models developed to predict tuberculosis (TB) treatment outcomes among adults with pulmonary TB.

DESIGN

Systematic review.

DATA SOURCES

PubMed, Embase, Web of Science and Google Scholar were searched for studies published from 1 January 1995 to 9 January 2020.

STUDY SELECTION AND DATA EXTRACTION

Studies that developed a model to predict pulmonary TB treatment outcomes were included. Study screening, data extraction and quality assessment were conducted independently by two reviewers. Study quality was evaluated using the Prediction model Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool. Data were synthesised with narrative review and in tables and figures.

RESULTS

14 739 articles were identified, 536 underwent full-text review and 33 studies presenting 37 prediction models were included. Model outcomes included death (n=16, 43%), treatment failure (n=6, 16%), default (n=6, 16%) or a composite outcome (n=9, 25%). Most models (n=30, 81%) measured discrimination (median c-statistic=0.75; IQR: 0.68-0.84), and 17 (46%) reported calibration, often the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (n=13). Nineteen (51%) models were internally validated, and six (16%) were externally validated. Eighteen (54%) studies mentioned missing data, and of those, half (n=9) used complete case analysis. The most common predictors included age, sex, extrapulmonary TB, body mass index, chest X-ray results, previous TB and HIV. Risk of bias varied across studies, but all studies had high risk of bias in their analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

TB outcome prediction models are heterogeneous with disparate outcome definitions, predictors and methodology. We do not recommend applying any in clinical settings without external validation, and encourage future researchers adhere to guidelines for developing and reporting of prediction models.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The study was registered on the international prospective register of systematic reviews PROSPERO (CRD42020155782).

Artificial intelligence and the future of global health

Concurrent advances in information technology infrastructure and mobile computing power in many low and middle-income countries (LMICs) have raised hopes that artificial intelligence (AI) might help to address challenges unique to the field of global health and accelerate achievement of the health-related sustainable development goals. A series of fundamental questions have been raised about AI-driven health interventions, and whether the tools, methods, and protections traditionally used to make ethical and evidence-based decisions about new technologies can be applied to AI. Deployment of AI has already begun for a broad range of health issues common to LMICs, with interventions focused primarily on communicable diseases, including tuberculosis and malaria. Types of AI vary, but most use some form of machine learning or signal processing. Several types of machine learning methods are frequently used together, as is machine learning with other approaches, most often signal processing. AI-driven health interventions fit into four categories relevant to global health researchers: (1) diagnosis, (2) patient morbidity or mortality risk assessment, (3) disease outbreak prediction and surveillance, and (4) health policy and planning. However, much of the AI-driven intervention research in global health does not describe ethical, regulatory, or practical considerations required for widespread use or deployment at scale. Despite the field remaining nascent, AI-driven health interventions could lead to improved health outcomes in LMICs. Although some challenges of developing and deploying these interventions might not be unique to these settings, the global health community will need to work quickly to establish guidelines for development, testing, and use, and develop a user-driven research agenda to facilitate equitable and ethical use.