Risk aversion in information seeking

Risk attitude and belief updating: theory and experiment

Despite the importance of risk attitude in decision-making, its role in belief updating has been overlooked. Using economic theory, we analyzed a dual-self equilibrium where an individual first updates her belief about an uncertain state and then takes an action to maximize her payoff. We showed that stronger risk aversion drives more conservative actions and thus decreases the instrumental value of information relative to the importance of belief-based utility. As a result, the relationship between risk attitude and belief updating depends on the nature of the belief-based utility. With self-relevant information, stronger risk aversion leads to more belief change, whereas with self-irrelevant information, stronger risk aversion leads to less belief change. Our experimental results concur with the theoretical predictions with two settings where subjects update their belief about their IQ and a randomly drawn number, respectively. We discuss implications on persuasion, advertisements, and political campaigns.

Strategies for selecting and evaluating information

Within the domain of psychology, Optimal Experimental Design (OED) principles have been used to model how people seek and evaluate information. Despite proving valuable as computational-level methods to account for people's behaviour, their descriptive and explanatory powers remain largely unexplored. In a series of experiments, we used a naturalistic crime investigation scenario to examine how people evaluate queries, as well as outcomes, in probabilistic contexts. We aimed to uncover the psychological strategies that people use, not just to assess whether they deviated from OED principles. In addition, we explored the adaptiveness of the identified strategies across both one-shot and stepwise information search tasks. We found that people do not always evaluate queries strictly in OED terms and use distinct strategies, such as by identifying a leading contender at the outset. Moreover, we identified aspects of zero-sum thinking and risk aversion that interact with people's information search strategies. Our findings have implications for building a descriptive account of information seeking and evaluation, accounting for factors that currently lie outside the realm of information-theoretic OED measures, such as context and the learner's own preferences.

Learning to explore the structure of kinematic objects in a virtual environment

The current study tested the quantity and quality of human exploration learning in a virtual environment. Given the everyday experience of humans with physical object exploration, we document substantial practice gains in the time, force, and number of actions needed to classify the structure of virtual chains, marking the joints as revolute, prismatic, or rigid. In line with current work on skill acquisition, participants could generalize the new and efficient psychomotor patterns of object exploration to novel objects. On the one hand, practice gains in exploration performance could be captured by a negative exponential practice function. On the other hand, they could be linked to strategies and strategy change. After quantifying how much was learned in object exploration and identifying the time course of practice-related gains in exploration efficiency (speed), we identified what was learned. First, we identified strategy components that were associated with efficient (fast) exploration performance: sequential processing, simultaneous use of both hands, low use of pulling rather than pushing, and low use of force. Only the latter was beneficial irrespective of the characteristics of the other strategy components. Second, we therefore characterized efficient exploration behavior by strategies that simultaneously take into account the abovementioned strategy components. We observed that participants maintained a high level of flexibility, sampling from a pool of exploration strategies trading the level of psycho-motoric challenges with exploration speed. We discuss the findings pursuing the aim of advancing intelligent object exploration by combining analytic (object exploration in humans) and synthetic work (object exploration in robots) in the same virtual environment.

Act first, think later: the presence and absence of inferential planning in problem solving

Planning is fundamental to successful problem solving, yet individuals sometimes fail to plan even one step ahead when it lies within their competence to do so. In this article, we report two experiments in which we explored variants of a ball-weighing puzzle, a problem that has only two steps, yet nonetheless yields performance consistent with a failure to plan. The results fit a computational model in which a solver's attempts are determined by two heuristics: maximization of the apparent progress made toward the problem goal and minimization of the problem space in which attempts are sought. The effectiveness of these heuristics was determined by lookahead, defined operationally as the number of steps evaluated in a planned move. Where move outcomes cannot be visualized but must be inferred, planning is constrained to the point where some individuals apply zero lookahead, which with n-ball problems yields seemingly irrational unequal weighs. Applying general-purpose heuristics with or without lookahead accounts for a range of rational and irrational phenomena found with insight and noninsight problems.