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Yagi A, Ueda Y, Egawa-Takata T, Tanaka Y, Nakae R, Morimoto A, Terai Y, Ohmichi M, Ichimura T, Sumi T, Murata H, Okada H, Nakai H, Mandai M, Matsuzaki S, Kobayashi E, Yoshino K, Kimura T, Saito J, Hori Y, Morii E, Nakayama T, Suzuki Y, Motoki Y, Sukegawa A, Asai-Sato M, Miyagi E, Yamaguchi M, Kudo R, Adachi S, Sekine M, Enomoto T, Horikoshi Y, Takagi T, Shimura K. Realistic fear of cervical cancer risk in Japan depending on birth year. Hum Vaccin Immunother 2017; 13:1700-1704. [PMID: 28272968 PMCID: PMC5512762 DOI: 10.1080/21645515.2017.1292190] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/07/2022] Open
Abstract
Objective: In Japan, the possible adverse events upon HPV vaccination was widely reported in the media. MHLW announced the suspension of aggressively encouraging HPV vaccination in 2013, and inoculation rate has sharply declined. The aim of the present study was estimation of future cervical cancer risk. Methods: The latest data on vaccination rate at each age in Sakai City were first investigated. The rate of experiencing sexual intercourse at the age of 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17 and throughout lifetime is assumed to be 0%, 1%, 2%, 5%, 15%, 25%, and 85% respectively. The cervical cancer risk was regarded to be proportional to the relative risk of HPV infection over the lifetime. The risk in those born in 1993 whom HPV vaccination was not available yet for was defined to be 1.0000. Results: The cumulative vaccination rates were 65.8% in those born in 1994, 72.7% in 1995, 72.8% in 1996, 75.7% in 1997, 75.0% in 1998, 66.8% in 1999, 4.1% in 2000, 1.5% in 2001, 0.1% in 2002, and 0.1% in 2003. The relative cervical cancer risk in those born in 1994–1999 was reduced to 0.56–0.70, however, the rate in those born in 2000–2003 was 0.98–1.0, almost the same risk as before introduction of the vaccine. Discussion: The cumulative initial vaccination rates were different by the year of birth. It is confirmed that the risk of future cervical cancer differs in accordance with the year of birth. For these females, cervical cancer screening should be recommended more strongly.
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Affiliation(s)
- Asami Yagi
- a The OCEAN Study Group (The Obstetrical Gynecological Society of Osaka) , Kawaramachi, Chuo-ku , Osaka , Japan.,b Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology , Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine , Yamadaoka, Suita, Osaka , Japan
| | - Yutaka Ueda
- a The OCEAN Study Group (The Obstetrical Gynecological Society of Osaka) , Kawaramachi, Chuo-ku , Osaka , Japan.,b Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology , Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine , Yamadaoka, Suita, Osaka , Japan
| | - Tomomi Egawa-Takata
- a The OCEAN Study Group (The Obstetrical Gynecological Society of Osaka) , Kawaramachi, Chuo-ku , Osaka , Japan.,b Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology , Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine , Yamadaoka, Suita, Osaka , Japan
| | - Yusuke Tanaka
- a The OCEAN Study Group (The Obstetrical Gynecological Society of Osaka) , Kawaramachi, Chuo-ku , Osaka , Japan.,b Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology , Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine , Yamadaoka, Suita, Osaka , Japan
| | - Ruriko Nakae
- a The OCEAN Study Group (The Obstetrical Gynecological Society of Osaka) , Kawaramachi, Chuo-ku , Osaka , Japan.,b Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology , Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine , Yamadaoka, Suita, Osaka , Japan
| | - Akiko Morimoto
- a The OCEAN Study Group (The Obstetrical Gynecological Society of Osaka) , Kawaramachi, Chuo-ku , Osaka , Japan.,b Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology , Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine , Yamadaoka, Suita, Osaka , Japan
| | - Yoshito Terai
- a The OCEAN Study Group (The Obstetrical Gynecological Society of Osaka) , Kawaramachi, Chuo-ku , Osaka , Japan.,c Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology , Osaka Medical College Graduate School of Medical Sciences , Takatsuki , Osaka , Japan
| | - Masahide Ohmichi
- a The OCEAN Study Group (The Obstetrical Gynecological Society of Osaka) , Kawaramachi, Chuo-ku , Osaka , Japan.,c Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology , Osaka Medical College Graduate School of Medical Sciences , Takatsuki , Osaka , Japan
| | - Tomoyuki Ichimura
- a The OCEAN Study Group (The Obstetrical Gynecological Society of Osaka) , Kawaramachi, Chuo-ku , Osaka , Japan.,d Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology , Osaka City University Graduate School and Faculty of Medicine , Abeno-ku , Osaka , Japan
| | - Toshiyuki Sumi
- a The OCEAN Study Group (The Obstetrical Gynecological Society of Osaka) , Kawaramachi, Chuo-ku , Osaka , Japan.,d Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology , Osaka City University Graduate School and Faculty of Medicine , Abeno-ku , Osaka , Japan
| | - Hiromi Murata
- a The OCEAN Study Group (The Obstetrical Gynecological Society of Osaka) , Kawaramachi, Chuo-ku , Osaka , Japan.,e Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology , Kansai Medical University Graduate School of Medicine , Hirakata , Osaka , Japan
| | - Hidetaka Okada
- a The OCEAN Study Group (The Obstetrical Gynecological Society of Osaka) , Kawaramachi, Chuo-ku , Osaka , Japan.,e Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology , Kansai Medical University Graduate School of Medicine , Hirakata , Osaka , Japan
| | - Hidekatsu Nakai
- a The OCEAN Study Group (The Obstetrical Gynecological Society of Osaka) , Kawaramachi, Chuo-ku , Osaka , Japan.,f Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology , Kinki University Graduate School of Medical Sciences , Osaka-Sayama , Osaka , Japan
| | - Masaki Mandai
- a The OCEAN Study Group (The Obstetrical Gynecological Society of Osaka) , Kawaramachi, Chuo-ku , Osaka , Japan.,f Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology , Kinki University Graduate School of Medical Sciences , Osaka-Sayama , Osaka , Japan
| | - Shinya Matsuzaki
- a The OCEAN Study Group (The Obstetrical Gynecological Society of Osaka) , Kawaramachi, Chuo-ku , Osaka , Japan.,b Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology , Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine , Yamadaoka, Suita, Osaka , Japan
| | - Eiji Kobayashi
- a The OCEAN Study Group (The Obstetrical Gynecological Society of Osaka) , Kawaramachi, Chuo-ku , Osaka , Japan.,b Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology , Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine , Yamadaoka, Suita, Osaka , Japan
| | - Kiyoshi Yoshino
- a The OCEAN Study Group (The Obstetrical Gynecological Society of Osaka) , Kawaramachi, Chuo-ku , Osaka , Japan.,b Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology , Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine , Yamadaoka, Suita, Osaka , Japan
| | - Tadashi Kimura
- a The OCEAN Study Group (The Obstetrical Gynecological Society of Osaka) , Kawaramachi, Chuo-ku , Osaka , Japan.,b Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology , Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine , Yamadaoka, Suita, Osaka , Japan
| | - Junko Saito
- a The OCEAN Study Group (The Obstetrical Gynecological Society of Osaka) , Kawaramachi, Chuo-ku , Osaka , Japan
| | - Yumiko Hori
- g Department of Pathology , Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine , Yamadaoka, Suita , Osaka , Japan
| | - Eiichi Morii
- g Department of Pathology , Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine , Yamadaoka, Suita , Osaka , Japan
| | - Tomio Nakayama
- h Center for Cancer Control and Statistics , Osaka Medical Center for Cancer and Cardiovascular Diseases , Higashinari-ku , Osaka , Japan
| | - Yukio Suzuki
- i Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology , Yokohama City University Graduate School of Medicine , Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama , Kanagawa , Japan
| | - Yoko Motoki
- i Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology , Yokohama City University Graduate School of Medicine , Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama , Kanagawa , Japan
| | - Akiko Sukegawa
- i Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology , Yokohama City University Graduate School of Medicine , Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama , Kanagawa , Japan
| | - Mikiko Asai-Sato
- i Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology , Yokohama City University Graduate School of Medicine , Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama , Kanagawa , Japan
| | - Etsuko Miyagi
- i Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology , Yokohama City University Graduate School of Medicine , Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama , Kanagawa , Japan
| | - Manako Yamaguchi
- j Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology , Niigata University Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences , Chuo-ku , Niigata , Japan
| | - Risa Kudo
- j Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology , Niigata University Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences , Chuo-ku , Niigata , Japan
| | - Sosuke Adachi
- j Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology , Niigata University Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences , Chuo-ku , Niigata , Japan
| | - Masayuki Sekine
- j Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology , Niigata University Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences , Chuo-ku , Niigata , Japan
| | - Takayuki Enomoto
- a The OCEAN Study Group (The Obstetrical Gynecological Society of Osaka) , Kawaramachi, Chuo-ku , Osaka , Japan.,j Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology , Niigata University Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences , Chuo-ku , Niigata , Japan
| | - Yorihiko Horikoshi
- a The OCEAN Study Group (The Obstetrical Gynecological Society of Osaka) , Kawaramachi, Chuo-ku , Osaka , Japan
| | - Tetsu Takagi
- a The OCEAN Study Group (The Obstetrical Gynecological Society of Osaka) , Kawaramachi, Chuo-ku , Osaka , Japan
| | - Kentaro Shimura
- a The OCEAN Study Group (The Obstetrical Gynecological Society of Osaka) , Kawaramachi, Chuo-ku , Osaka , Japan
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