NEUTRALIZING ANTIBODIES IN HUMAN SERUM AFTER INFLUENZA A : THE LACK OF STRAIN SPECIFICITY IN THE IMMUNOLOGICAL RESPONSE

Using serological measures to estimate influenza incidence in the presence of secular trends in exposure and immuno-modulation of antibody response

BACKGROUND

Influenza infection is often measured by a fourfold antibody titer increase over an influenza season (ie seroconversion). However, this approach may fail when influenza seasons are less distinct as it does not account for transient effects from recent infections. Here, we present a method to determine seroconversion for non-paired sera, adjusting for changes in individuals' antibody titers to influenza due to the transient impact of recent exposures, varied sampling times, and laboratory processes.

METHODS

We applied our method using data for five H3N2 strains collected from 942 individuals, aged 2-90 years, during the first two study visits of the Fluscape cohort study (2009-2012) in Guangzhou, China.

RESULTS

After adjustment, apparent seroconversion rates for non-circulating strains decreased while we observed a 20% increase in seroconversion rates to recently circulating strains. When examining seroconversion to the most recently circulating strain (A/Brisbane/20/2007) in our study, participants aged under 18, and over 64 had the highest seroconversion rates compared to other age groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results highlight the need for improved methods when using antibody titers as an endpoint in settings where there is no clear influenza "off" season. Methods, like those presented here, that use titers from circulating and non-circulating strains may be key.

Life course exposures continually shape antibody profiles and risk of seroconversion to influenza

Complex exposure histories and immune mediated interactions between influenza strains contribute to the life course of human immunity to influenza. Antibody profiles can be generated by characterizing immune responses to multiple antigenically variant strains, but how these profiles vary across individuals and determine future responses is unclear. We used hemagglutination inhibition titers from 21 H3N2 strains to construct 777 paired antibody profiles from people aged 2 to 86, and developed novel metrics to capture features of these profiles. Total antibody titer per potential influenza exposure increases in early life, then decreases in middle age. Increased titers to one or more strains were seen in 97.8% of participants during a roughly four-year interval, suggesting widespread influenza exposure. While titer changes were seen to all strains, recently circulating strains exhibited the greatest titer rise. Higher pre-existing, homologous titers at baseline reduced the risk of seroconversion to recent strains. After adjusting for homologous titer, we also found an increased frequency of seroconversion against recent strains among those with higher immunity to older previously exposed strains. Including immunity to previously exposures also improved the deviance explained by the models. Our results suggest that a comprehensive quantitative description of immunity encompassing past exposures could lead to improved correlates of risk of influenza infection.

Sequential, within-season infection with influenza A (H3N2) in a usually healthy vaccinated child

Cocirculation of varying influenza types, strains, and lineages allows coinfection and intra-season sequential infection, although a same-strain sequential infection has not been previously described. This case report describes the first known case of sequential laboratory-confirmed influenza A (H3N2) infections in a child within one season.

Nonannual seasonality of influenza-like illness in a tropical urban setting

BACKGROUND

In temperate and subtropical climates, respiratory diseases exhibit seasonal peaks in winter. In the tropics, with no winter, peak timings are irregular.

METHODS

To obtain a detailed picture of influenza-like illness (ILI) patterns in the tropics, we established an mHealth study in community clinics in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC). During 2009-2015, clinics reported daily case numbers via SMS, with a subset performing molecular diagnostics for influenza virus. This real-time epidemiology network absorbs 6000 ILI reports annually, one or two orders of magnitude more than typical surveillance systems. A real-time online ILI indicator was developed to inform clinicians of the daily ILI activity in HCMC.

RESULTS

From August 2009 to December 2015, 63 clinics were enrolled and 36 920 SMS reports were received, covering approximately 1.7M outpatient visits. Approximately 10.6% of outpatients met the ILI case definition. ILI activity in HCMC exhibited strong nonannual dynamics with a dominant periodicity of 206 days. This was confirmed by time series decomposition, stepwise regression, and a forecasting exercise showing that median forecasting errors are 30%-40% lower when using a 206-day cycle. In ILI patients from whom nasopharyngeal swabs were taken, 31.2% were positive for influenza. There was no correlation between the ILI time series and the time series of influenza, influenza A, or influenza B (all P > 0.15).

CONCLUSION

This suggests, for the first time, that a nonannual cycle may be an essential driver of respiratory disease dynamics in the tropics. An immunological interference hypothesis is discussed as a potential underlying mechanism.

Timescales of influenza A/H3N2 antibody dynamics

Human immunity influences the evolution and impact of influenza strains. Because individuals are infected with multiple influenza strains during their lifetime, and each virus can generate a cross-reactive antibody response, it is challenging to quantify the processes that shape observed immune responses or to reliably detect recent infection from serological samples. Using a Bayesian model of antibody dynamics at multiple timescales, we explain complex cross-reactive antibody landscapes by inferring participants' histories of infection with serological data from cross-sectional and longitudinal studies of influenza A/H3N2 in southern China and Vietnam. We find that individual-level influenza antibody profiles can be explained by a short-lived, broadly cross-reactive response that decays within a year to leave a smaller long-term response acting against a narrower range of strains. We also demonstrate that accounting for dynamic immune responses alongside infection history can provide a more accurate alternative to traditional definitions of seroconversion for the estimation of infection attack rates. Our work provides a general model for quantifying aspects of influenza immunity acting at multiple timescales based on contemporary serological data and suggests a two-armed immune response to influenza infection consistent with competitive dynamics between B cell populations. This approach to analysing multiple timescales for antigenic responses could also be applied to other multistrain pathogens such as dengue and related flaviviruses.

Severity and burden of hand, foot and mouth disease in Asia: a modelling study

Background

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) affects millions of children across Asia annually, leading to an increase in implemented control policies such as surveillance, isolation and social distancing in affected jurisdictions. However, limited knowledge of disease burden and severity causes difficulty in policy optimisation as the associated economic cost cannot be easily estimated. We use a data synthesis approach to provide a comprehensive picture of HFMD disease burden, estimating infection risk, symptomatic rates, the risk of complications and death, and overall disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) losses, along with associated uncertainties.

Methods

Complementary data from a variety of sources were synthesised with mathematical models to obtain estimates of severity of HFMD. This includes serological and other data extracted through a systematic review of HFMD epidemiology previously published by the authors, and laboratory investigations and sentinel reports from Singapore's surveillance system.

Results

HFMD is estimated to cause 96 900 (95% CI 40 600 to 259 000) age-weighted DALYs per annum in eight high-burden countries in East and Southeast Asia, with the majority of DALYs attributed to years of life lost. The symptomatic case hospitalisation rate of HFMD is 6% (2.8%-14.9%), of which 18.7% (6.7%-31.5%) are expected to develop complications. 5% (2.9%-7.4%) of such cases are fatal, bringing the overall case fatality ratio to be 52.3 (24.4-92.7) per 100 000 symptomatic infections. In contrast, the EV-A71 case fatality ratio is estimated to be at least 229.7 (75.4-672.1) per 100 000 symptomatic cases. Asymptomatic rate for EV-A71 is 71.4% (68.3%-74.3%) for ages 1-4, the years of greatest incidence.

Conclusion

Despite the high incidence rate of HFMD, total DALY due to HFMD is limited in comparison to other endemic diseases in the region, such as dengue and upper respiratory tract infection. With the majority of DALY caused by years of life lost, it is possible to mitigate most with increased EV-A71 vaccine coverage.

Individual and Population Trajectories of Influenza Antibody Titers Over Multiple Seasons in a Tropical Country

Seasonal influenza epidemics occur year-round in the tropics, complicating the planning of vaccination programs. We built an individual-level longitudinal model of baseline antibody levels, time of infection, and the subsequent rise and decay of antibodies postinfection using influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 data from 2 sources in Singapore: 1) a noncommunity cohort with real-time polymerase chain reaction–confirmed infections and at least 1 serological sample collected from each participant between May and October 2009 (n = 118) and 2) a community cohort with up to 6 serological samples collected between May 2009 and October 2010 (n = 760). The model was hierarchical, to account for interval censoring and interindividual variation. Model parameters were estimated via a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm using custom-designed R (https://www.r-project.org/) and C++ (https://isocpp.org/) code. After infection, antibody levels peaked at 4–7 weeks, with a half-life of 26.5 weeks, followed by a slower decrease up to 1 year to approximately preinfection levels. After the third wave, the seropositivity rate and the population-level antibody titer dropped to the same level as they were at the end of the first pandemic wave. The results of this analysis are consistent with the hypothesis that the population-level effect of individuals’ waxing and waning antibodies influences influenza seasonality in the tropics.

Structure of general-population antibody titer distributions to influenza A virus

Seroepidemiological studies aim to understand population-level exposure and immunity to infectious diseases. Their results are normally presented as binary outcomes describing the presence or absence of pathogen-specific antibody, despite the fact that many assays measure continuous quantities. A population's natural distribution of antibody titers to an endemic infectious disease may include information on multiple serological states - naiveté, recent infection, non-recent infection, childhood infection - depending on the disease in question and the acquisition and waning patterns of immunity. In this study, we investigate 20,152 general-population serum samples from southern Vietnam collected between 2009 and 2013 from which we report antibody titers to the influenza virus HA1 protein using a continuous titer measurement from a protein microarray assay. We describe the distributions of antibody titers to subtypes 2009 H1N1 and H3N2. Using a model selection approach to fit mixture distributions, we show that 2009 H1N1 antibody titers fall into four titer subgroups and that H3N2 titers fall into three subgroups. For H1N1, our interpretation is that the two highest-titer subgroups correspond to recent and historical infection, which is consistent with 2009 pandemic attack rates. Similar interpretations are available for H3N2, but right-censoring of titers makes these interpretations difficult to validate.

Statistical identifiability and sample size calculations for serial seroepidemiology

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We investigate whether disease dynamics can be inferred by repeated serum collections.

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Measuring antibody waning is critical for inference in serological time series.

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Collecting 200 samples every 2 months allows for inference of transmission parameters.

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Low-level seasonality is difficult to detect statistically.

Inference on disease dynamics is typically performed using case reporting time series of symptomatic disease. The inferred dynamics will vary depending on the reporting patterns and surveillance system for the disease in question, and the inference will miss mild or underreported epidemics. To eliminate the variation introduced by differing reporting patterns and to capture asymptomatic or subclinical infection, inferential methods can be applied to serological data sets instead of case reporting data. To reconstruct complete disease dynamics, one would need to collect a serological time series. In the statistical analysis presented here, we consider a particular kind of serological time series with repeated, periodic collections of population-representative serum. We refer to this study design as a serial seroepidemiology (SSE) design, and we base the analysis on our epidemiological knowledge of influenza. We consider a study duration of three to four years, during which a single antigenic type of influenza would be circulating, and we evaluate our ability to reconstruct disease dynamics based on serological data alone. We show that the processes of reinfection, antibody generation, and antibody waning confound each other and are not always statistically identifiable, especially when dynamics resemble a non-oscillating endemic equilibrium behavior. We introduce some constraints to partially resolve this confounding, and we show that transmission rates and basic reproduction numbers can be accurately estimated in SSE study designs. Seasonal forcing is more difficult to identify as serology-based studies only detect oscillations in antibody titers of recovered individuals, and these oscillations are typically weaker than those observed for infected individuals. To accurately estimate the magnitude and timing of seasonal forcing, serum samples should be collected every two months and 200 or more samples should be included in each collection; this sample size estimate is sensitive to the antibody waning rate and the assumed level of seasonal forcing.

Antibody landscapes after influenza virus infection or vaccination

We introduce the antibody landscape, a method for the quantitative analysis of antibody-mediated immunity to antigenically variable pathogens, achieved by accounting for antigenic variation among pathogen strains. We generated antibody landscapes to study immune profiles covering 43 years of influenza A/H3N2 virus evolution for 69 individuals monitored for infection over 6 years and for 225 individuals pre- and postvaccination. Upon infection and vaccination, titers increased broadly, including previously encountered viruses far beyond the extent of cross-reactivity observed after a primary infection. We explored implications for vaccination and found that the use of an antigenically advanced virus had the dual benefit of inducing antibodies against both advanced and previous antigenic clusters. These results indicate that preemptive vaccine updates may improve influenza vaccine efficacy in previously exposed individuals.

Evidence for antigenic seniority in influenza A (H3N2) antibody responses in southern China

A key observation about the human immune response to repeated exposure to influenza A is that the first strain infecting an individual apparently produces the strongest adaptive immune response. Although antibody titers measure that response, the interpretation of titers to multiple strains – from the same sera – in terms of infection history is clouded by age effects, cross reactivity and immune waning. From July to September 2009, we collected serum samples from 151 residents of Guangdong Province, China, 7 to 81 years of age. Neutralization tests were performed against strains representing six antigenic clusters of H3N2 influenza circulating between 1968 and 2008, and three recent locally circulating strains. Patterns of neutralization titers were compared based on age at time of testing and age at time of the first isolation of each virus. Neutralization titers were highest for H3N2 strains that circulated in an individual's first decade of life (peaking at 7 years). Further, across strains and ages at testing, statistical models strongly supported a pattern of titers declining smoothly with age at the time a strain was first isolated. Those born 10 or more years after a strain emerged generally had undetectable neutralization titers to that strain (<1∶10). Among those over 60 at time of testing, titers tended to increase with age. The observed pattern in H3N2 neutralization titers can be characterized as one of antigenic seniority: repeated exposure and the immune response combine to produce antibody titers that are higher to more ‘senior’ strains encountered earlier in life.

The human immune response to an influenza infection is not the same for every infection. It has often been observed that we tend to have the highest antibody titer (and presumably our strongest immune response) against strains of influenza that we were exposed to early in life. In this study, we obtained blood samples from 151 people between 7 and 81 years of age and tested the samples for the concentration of antibodies to many different (H3N2) strains. We chose strains according to when they first circulated, starting with a strain isolated just after the 1968 pandemic and going all the way through to very recent strains. We found that a participant's age at the time a strain first circulated was very predictive of the strength of their antibody against that strain. Not just for the first strain they were likely to have seen, but also for the second, third and all subsequent strains circulating during their lifetime. This suggests to us that antibody titers to influenza A H3N2 follow a pattern of antigenic seniority, suggesting that we produce progressively fewer specific antibodies to each subsequent infection as we age.

Location-specific patterns of exposure to recent pre-pandemic strains of influenza A in southern China

Variation in influenza incidence between locations is commonly observed on large spatial scales. It is unclear whether such variation occurs on smaller spatial scales and whether it is the result of heterogeneities in population demographics or more subtle differences in population structure and connectivity. Here we show significant differences in immunity to influenza A viruses among communities in China not explained by differences in population demographics. We randomly selected households from 5 randomly selected locations near Guangzhou, China to answer a questionnaire and provide a blood sample for serological testing against 5 recently circulating influenza viruses. We find a significant reduction in the frequency of detectable neutralization titers with increasing age, leveling off in older age groups. There are significant differences between locations in age, employment status, vaccination history, household size and housing conditions. However, after adjustment, significant variations in the frequency of detectable neutralization titers persists between locations. These results suggest there are characteristics of communities that drive influenza transmission dynamics apart from individual and household level risk factors, and that such factors have effects independent of strain.

QUALITATIVE DIFFERENCES IN THE ANTIGENIC COMPOSITION OF INFLUENZA A VIRUS STRAINS

A study of the PR8, Christie, Talmey, W.S., and swine strains of influenza A virus by means of antibody absorption tests revealed the following findings: 1. Serum antibody could be specifically absorbed with allantoic fluid containing influenza virus or, more effectively, with concentrated suspensions of virus obtained from allantoic fluid by high-speed centrifugation or by the red cell adsorption and elution technique. Normal allantoic fluid, or the centrifugalized sediment therefrom, failed to absorb antibodies. Influenza B virus (Lee) caused no detectable absorption of antibody from antisera directed against influenza A virus strains, but it specifically absorbed antibody from Lee antisera. 2. The neutralizing, agglutination-inhibiting, and complement-fixing anti-bodies in ferret antisera were completely absorbed only by the homologous virus strain, even though 2 absorptions were carried out with large amounts of heterologous virus strains. 3. PR8 virus appeared to have the broadest range of specific antigenic components for it completely absorbed the heterologous antibodies in Christie and W.S. antisera and left only those antibodies which reacted with the respective homologous strains. The other virus strains (Christie, Talmey, W.S., swine) were more specific in the absorption of heterologous antibodies and completely removed only those antibodies which reacted with the absorbing virus. 4. The absorption tests revealed a higher degree of specificity and individuality of the virus strains than the various cross reactions previously reported. The strain specificity of PR8 virus was equally manifest in absorption tests with ferret sera and with human sera following vaccination. 5. The amount of homologous antibody remaining in a PR8 ferret serum after absorption with PR8 virus, obtained by the red cell adsorption and elution method, varied inversely as the concentration of virus used for absorption. A given concentration of virus, however, absorbed a greater percentage of neutralizing antibodies than either agglutination-inhibiting or complement-fixing antibodies.

THE IMMUNOLOGICAL RESPONSE TO INFLUENZA VIRUS INFECTION AS MEASURED BY THE COMPLEMENT FIXATION TEST : RELATION OF THE COMPLEMENT-FIXING ANTIGEN TO THE VIRUS PARTICLE

A quantitative complement fixation test with influenza immune sera and virus antigens obtained from allantoic fluid is described. The method utilizes a photoelectric densitometer which provides a simple, objective, and accurate determination of the hemolytic reaction. The enhancement of the hemolytic activity of complement in the presence of serum or allantoic fluid necessitates a preliminary titration of complement in the presence of these agents. An accurate appraisal of the activity of the complement under the conditions of the actual test permits the selection of an optimal amount of complement and greatly increases the sensitivity of the test. The substance (or substances) responsible for the enhanced hemolytic activity of complement has been found in human and many animal sera and in allantoic fluids obtained from the developing chick embryo. It requires the presence of both complement and hemolysin, resists heating at 100°C. for 2 hours, and is dialyzable. Allantoic fluid or mouse lung preparations of influenza virus contain a complement-fixing antigen which is intimately associated with the virus particle. It sediments in the high speed centrifuge at the same rate as the hemagglutinin and infective particle and, like the latter, is adsorbed by fowl red blood cells and eluted from the cells on standing at room temperature or 37°C. It cannot be separated from the virus particle by repeated washings in the centrifuge or repeated adsorptions with red blood cells; the hemagglutinin and complement-fixing antigen titers remain roughly proportional. This antigen shows a high degree of strain specificity in cross complement fixation tests with PR8, W.S., and swine ferret antisera, and, as found with the neutralization test, it shows little or no strain specificity with human sera. A soluble antigen is also present in influenza virus preparations which can be readily separated from the virus particle by centrifugation. It is not adsorbed by red blood cells. Furthermore, it reacts in lower titer with ferret antisera and usually shows less strain specificity in cross complement fixation tests. In general, allantoic fluid virus preparations contain much less of the soluble antigen than mouse lung extracts.

Vaccination against influenza

This paper reviews studies which have been carried out during the past twenty years in the United States of America to investigate the suitability of various vaccines and vaccination methods for immunizing man against the different influenza virus strains. A number of investigations in closed communities, such as children's institutions, army and navy units, and medical schools, are described. The author discusses the comparative value of the techniques employed in preparing vaccines, and the use of adjuvants in improving the response.