Determination of parameter identifiability in nonlinear biophysical models: A Bayesian approach

A sequential binding mechanism for 5' splice site recognition and modulation for the human U1 snRNP

Splice site recognition is essential for defining the transcriptome. Drugs like risdiplam and branaplam change how human U1 snRNP recognizes particular 5' splice sites (5'SS) and promote U1 snRNP binding and splicing at these locations. Despite the therapeutic potential of 5'SS modulators, the complexity of their interactions and snRNP substrates have precluded defining a mechanism for 5'SS modulation. We have determined a sequential binding mechanism for modulation of -1A bulged 5'SS by branaplam using a combination of ensemble kinetic measurements and colocalization single molecule spectroscopy (CoSMoS). Our mechanism establishes that U1-C protein binds reversibly to U1 snRNP, and branaplam binds to the U1 snRNP/U1-C complex only after it has engaged with a -1A bulged 5'SS. Obligate orders of binding and unbinding explain how reversible branaplam interactions cause formation of long-lived U1 snRNP/5'SS complexes. Branaplam targets a ribonucleoprotein, not only an RNA duplex, and its action depends on fundamental properties of 5'SS recognition.

Assessing structural uncertainty of biochemical regulatory networks in metabolic pathways under varying data quality

Ordinary differential equation (ODE) models are powerful tools for studying the dynamics of metabolic pathways. However, key challenges lie in constructing ODE models for metabolic pathways, specifically in our limited knowledge about which metabolite levels control which reaction rates. Identification of these regulatory networks is further complicated by the limited availability of relevant data. Here, we assess the conditions under which it is feasible to accurately identify regulatory networks in metabolic pathways by computationally fitting candidate network models with biochemical systems theory (BST) kinetics to data of varying quality. We use network motifs commonly found in metabolic pathways as a simplified testbed. Key features correlated with the level of difficulty in identifying the correct regulatory network were identified, highlighting the impact of sampling rate, data noise, and data incompleteness on structural uncertainty. We found that for a simple branched network motif with an equal number of metabolites and fluxes, identification of the correct regulatory network can be largely achieved and is robust to missing one of the metabolite profiles. However, with a bi-substrate bi-product reaction or more fluxes than metabolites in the network motif, the identification becomes more challenging. Stronger regulatory interactions and higher metabolite concentrations were found to be correlated with less structural uncertainty. These results could aid efforts to predict whether the true metabolic regulatory network can be computationally identified for a given stoichiometric network topology and dataset quality, thus helping to identify optimal measures to mitigate such identifiability issues in kinetic model development.

Guidelines for mechanistic modeling and analysis in cardiovascular research

Computational, or in silico, models are an effective, noninvasive tool for investigating cardiovascular function. These models can be used in the analysis of experimental and clinical data to identify possible mechanisms of (ab)normal cardiovascular physiology. Recent advances in computing power and data management have led to innovative and complex modeling frameworks that simulate cardiovascular function across multiple scales. While commonly used in multiple disciplines, there is a lack of concise guidelines for the implementation of computer models in cardiovascular research. In line with recent calls for more reproducible research, it is imperative that scientists adhere to credible practices when developing and applying computational models to their research. The goal of this manuscript is to provide a consensus document that identifies best practices for in silico computational modeling in cardiovascular research. These guidelines provide the necessary methods for mechanistic model development, model analysis, and formal model calibration using fundamentals from statistics. We outline rigorous practices for computational, mechanistic modeling in cardiovascular research and discuss its synergistic value to experimental and clinical data.

Structured methods for parameter inference and uncertainty quantification for mechanistic models in the life sciences

Parameter inference and uncertainty quantification are important steps when relating mathematical models to real-world observations and when estimating uncertainty in model predictions. However, methods for doing this can be computationally expensive, particularly when the number of unknown model parameters is large. The aim of this study is to develop and test an efficient profile likelihood-based method, which takes advantage of the structure of the mathematical model being used. We do this by identifying specific parameters that affect model output in a known way, such as a linear scaling. We illustrate the method by applying it to three toy models from different areas of the life sciences: (i) a predator-prey model from ecology; (ii) a compartment-based epidemic model from health sciences; and (iii) an advection-diffusion reaction model describing the transport of dissolved solutes from environmental science. We show that the new method produces results of comparable accuracy to existing profile likelihood methods but with substantially fewer evaluations of the forward model. We conclude that our method could provide a much more efficient approach to parameter inference for models where a structured approach is feasible. Computer code to apply the new method to user-supplied models and data is provided via a publicly accessible repository.

Making Predictions Using Poorly Identified Mathematical Models

Many commonly used mathematical models in the field of mathematical biology involve challenges of parameter non-identifiability. Practical non-identifiability, where the quality and quantity of data does not provide sufficiently precise parameter estimates is often encountered, even with relatively simple models. In particular, the situation where some parameters are identifiable and others are not is often encountered. In this work we apply a recent likelihood-based workflow, called Profile-Wise Analysis (PWA), to non-identifiable models for the first time. The PWA workflow addresses identifiability, parameter estimation, and prediction in a unified framework that is simple to implement and interpret. Previous implementations of the workflow have dealt with idealised identifiable problems only. In this study we illustrate how the PWA workflow can be applied to both structurally non-identifiable and practically non-identifiable models in the context of simple population growth models. Dealing with simple mathematical models allows us to present the PWA workflow in a didactic, self-contained document that can be studied together with relatively straightforward Julia code provided on GitHub . Working with simple mathematical models allows the PWA workflow prediction intervals to be compared with gold standard full likelihood prediction intervals. Together, our examples illustrate how the PWA workflow provides us with a systematic way of dealing with non-identifiability, especially compared to other approaches, such as seeking ad hoc parameter combinations, or simply setting parameter values to some arbitrary default value. Importantly, we show that the PWA workflow provides insight into the commonly-encountered situation where some parameters are identifiable and others are not, allowing us to explore how uncertainty in some parameters, and combinations of parameters, regardless of their identifiability status, influences model predictions in a way that is insightful and interpretable.

Evolving Improved Sampling Protocols for Dose-Response Modelling Using Genetic Algorithms with a Profile-Likelihood Metric

Practical limitations of quality and quantity of data can limit the precision of parameter identification in mathematical models. Model-based experimental design approaches have been developed to minimise parameter uncertainty, but the majority of these approaches have relied on first-order approximations of model sensitivity at a local point in parameter space. Practical identifiability approaches such as profile-likelihood have shown potential for quantifying parameter uncertainty beyond linear approximations. This research presents a genetic algorithm approach to optimise sample timing across various parameterisations of a demonstrative PK-PD model with the goal of aiding experimental design. The optimisation relies on a chosen metric of parameter uncertainty that is based on the profile-likelihood method. Additionally, the approach considers cases where multiple parameter scenarios may require simultaneous optimisation. The genetic algorithm approach was able to locate near-optimal sampling protocols for a wide range of sample number (n = 3-20), and it reduced the parameter variance metric by 33-37% on average. The profile-likelihood metric also correlated well with an existing Monte Carlo-based metric (with a worst-case r > 0.89), while reducing computational cost by an order of magnitude. The combination of the new profile-likelihood metric and the genetic algorithm demonstrate the feasibility of considering the nonlinear nature of models in optimal experimental design at a reasonable computational cost. The outputs of such a process could allow for experimenters to either improve parameter certainty given a fixed number of samples, or reduce sample quantity while retaining the same level of parameter certainty.

Quantifying cell cycle regulation by tissue crowding

The spatiotemporal coordination and regulation of cell proliferation is fundamental in many aspects of development and tissue maintenance. Cells have the ability to adapt their division rates in response to mechanical constraints, yet we do not fully understand how cell proliferation regulation impacts cell migration phenomena. Here, we present a minimal continuum model of cell migration with cell cycle dynamics, which includes density-dependent effects and hence can account for cell proliferation regulation. By combining minimal mathematical modeling, Bayesian inference, and recent experimental data, we quantify the impact of tissue crowding across different cell cycle stages in epithelial tissue expansion experiments. Our model suggests that cells sense local density and adapt cell cycle progression in response, during G1 and the combined S/G2/M phases, providing an explicit relationship between each cell-cycle-stage duration and local tissue density, which is consistent with several experimental observations. Finally, we compare our mathematical model's predictions to different experiments studying cell cycle regulation and present a quantitative analysis on the impact of density-dependent regulation on cell migration patterns. Our work presents a systematic approach for investigating and analyzing cell cycle data, providing mechanistic insights into how individual cells regulate proliferation, based on population-based experimental measurements.

Full kinetic modeling analysis of [18F]fluorocholine Positron Emission Tomography (PET) at initial diagnosis of high-grade glioma

PURPOSE

The main objective was to characterize the tracer uptake kinetics of [18F]fluoromethylcholine ([18F]F-CHO) in high-grade gliomas (HGG) through a full PET kinetic modeling approach. Secondarily, we aimed to explore the relationship between the PET uptake measures and the HGG molecular features.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Twenty-four patients with a suspected diagnosis of HGG were prospectively included. They underwent a dynamic brain [18F]F-CHO-PET/CT, from which a tumoral time-activity curve was extracted. The plasma input function was obtained through arterial blood sampling with metabolite correction. These data were fitted to 1- and 2-tissue-compartment models, the best of which was selected through the Akaike information criterion. We assessed the correlation between the kinetic parameters and the conventional static PET metrics (SUVmax, SUVmean and tumor-to-background ratio TBR). We explored the association between the [18F]F-CHO-PET quantitative parameters and relevant molecular biomarkers in HGG.

RESULTS

Tumoral time-activity curves in all patients showed a rapid rise of [18F]F-CHO uptake followed by a plateau-like shape. Best fits were obtained with near-irreversible 2-tissue-compartment models. The perfusion-transport constant K1 and the net influx rate Ki showed strong correlation with SUVmax (r = 0.808-0.861), SUVmean (r = 0.794-0.851) and TBR (r = 0.643-0.784), p < 0.002. HGG was confirmed in 21 patients, of which those with methylation of the O-6-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) gene promoter showed higher mean Ki (p = 0.020), K1 (p = 0.025) and TBR (p = 0.001) than the unmethylated ones.

CONCLUSION

[18F]F-CHO uptake kinetics in HGG is best explained by a 2-tissue-compartment model. The conventional static [18F]F-CHO-PET measures have been validated against the perfusion-transport constant (K1) and the net influx rate (Ki) derived from kinetic modeling. A relationship between [18F]F-CHO uptake rate and MGMT methylation is suggested but needs further confirmation.

A Sequential Binding Mechanism for 5' Splice Site Recognition and Modulation for the Human U1 snRNP

Splice site recognition is essential for defining the transcriptome. Drugs like risdiplam and branaplam change how U1 snRNP recognizes particular 5' splice sites (5'SS) and promote U1 snRNP binding and splicing at these locations. Despite the therapeutic potential of 5'SS modulators, the complexity of their interactions and snRNP substrates have precluded defining a mechanism for 5'SS modulation. We have determined a sequential binding mechanism for modulation of -1A bulged 5'SS by branaplam using a combination of ensemble kinetic measurements and colocalization single molecule spectroscopy (CoSMoS). Our mechanism establishes that U1-C protein binds reversibly to U1 snRNP, and branaplam binds to the U1 snRNP/U1-C complex only after it has engaged a -1A bulged 5'SS. Obligate orders of binding and unbinding explain how reversible branaplam interactions cause formation of long-lived U1 snRNP/5'SS complexes. Branaplam is a ribonucleoprotein, not RNA duplex alone, targeting drug whose action depends on fundamental properties of 5'SS recognition.

Parameter Identifiability in PDE Models of Fluorescence Recovery After Photobleaching

Identifying unique parameters for mathematical models describing biological data can be challenging and often impossible. Parameter identifiability for partial differential equations models in cell biology is especially difficult given that many established in vivo measurements of protein dynamics average out the spatial dimensions. Here, we are motivated by recent experiments on the binding dynamics of the RNA-binding protein PTBP3 in RNP granules of frog oocytes based on fluorescence recovery after photobleaching (FRAP) measurements. FRAP is a widely-used experimental technique for probing protein dynamics in living cells, and is often modeled using simple reaction-diffusion models of the protein dynamics. We show that current methods of structural and practical parameter identifiability provide limited insights into identifiability of kinetic parameters for these PDE models and spatially-averaged FRAP data. We thus propose a pipeline for assessing parameter identifiability and for learning parameter combinations based on re-parametrization and profile likelihoods analysis. We show that this method is able to recover parameter combinations for synthetic FRAP datasets and investigate its application to real experimental data.

A calibration and uncertainty quantification analysis of classical, fractional and multiscale logistic models of tumour growth

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

The validation of mathematical models of tumour growth is frequently hampered by the lack of sufficient experimental data, resulting in qualitative rather than quantitative studies. Recent approaches to this problem have attempted to extract information about tumour growth by integrating multiscale experimental measurements, such as longitudinal cell counts and gene expression data. In the present study, we investigated the performance of several mathematical models of tumour growth, including classical logistic, fractional and novel multiscale models, in terms of quantifying in-vitro tumour growth in the presence and absence of therapy. We further examined the effect of genes associated with changes in chemosensitivity in cell death rates.

METHODS

The multiscale expansion of logistic growth models was performed by coupling gene expression profiles to the cell death rates. State-of-the-art Bayesian inference, likelihood maximisation and uncertainty quantification techniques allowed a thorough evaluation of model performance.

RESULTS

The results suggest that the classical single-cell population model (SCPM) was the best fit for the untreated and low-dose treatment conditions, while the multiscale model with a cell death rate symmetric with the expression profile of OCT4 (Sym-SCPM) yielded the best fit for the high-dose treatment data. Further identifiability analysis showed that the multiscale model was both structurally and practically identifiable under the condition of known OCT4 expression profiles.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, the present study demonstrates that model performance can be improved by incorporating multiscale measurements of tumour growth when high-dose treatment is involved.

Implementing measurement error models with mechanistic mathematical models in a likelihood-based framework for estimation, identifiability analysis and prediction in the life sciences

Throughout the life sciences, we routinely seek to interpret measurements and observations using parametrized mechanistic mathematical models. A fundamental and often overlooked choice in this approach involves relating the solution of a mathematical model with noisy and incomplete measurement data. This is often achieved by assuming that the data are noisy measurements of the solution of a deterministic mathematical model, and that measurement errors are additive and normally distributed. While this assumption of additive Gaussian noise is extremely common and simple to implement and interpret, it is often unjustified and can lead to poor parameter estimates and non-physical predictions. One way to overcome this challenge is to implement a different measurement error model. In this review, we demonstrate how to implement a range of measurement error models in a likelihood-based framework for estimation, identifiability analysis and prediction, called profile-wise analysis. This frequentist approach to uncertainty quantification for mechanistic models leverages the profile likelihood for targeting parameters and understanding their influence on predictions. Case studies, motivated by simple caricature models routinely used in systems biology and mathematical biology literature, illustrate how the same ideas apply to different types of mathematical models. Open-source Julia code to reproduce results is available on GitHub.

Identifiability of equilibrium constants for receptors with two to five binding sites

Ligand-gated ion channels (LGICs) are regularly oligomers containing between two and five binding sites for ligands. Neither in homomeric nor heteromeric LGICs the activation process evoked by the ligand binding is fully understood. Here, we show on theoretical grounds that for LGICs with two to five binding sites, the cooperativity upon channel activation can be determined in considerable detail. The main requirements for our strategy are a defined number of binding sites in a channel, which can be achieved by concatenation, a systematic mutation of all binding sites and a global fit of all concentration-activation relationships (CARs) with corresponding intimately coupled Markovian state models. We take advantage of translating these state models to cubes with dimensions 2, 3, 4, and 5. We show that the maximum possible number of CARs for these LGICs specify all 7, 13, 23, and 41 independent model parameters, respectively, which directly provide all equilibrium constants within the respective schemes. Moreover, a fit that uses stochastically varied scaled unitary start vectors enables the determination of all parameters, without any bias imposed by specific start vectors. A comparison of the outcome of the analyses for the models with 2 to 5 binding sites showed that the identifiability of the parameters is best for a case with 5 binding sites and 41 parameters. Our strategy can be used to analyze experimental data of other LGICs and may be applicable to voltage-gated ion channels and metabotropic receptors.

Inferring delays in partially observed gene regulation processes

MOTIVATION

Cell function is regulated by gene regulatory networks (GRNs) defined by protein-mediated interaction between constituent genes. Despite advances in experimental techniques, we can still measure only a fraction of the processes that govern GRN dynamics. To infer the properties of GRNs using partial observation, unobserved sequential processes can be replaced with distributed time delays, yielding non-Markovian models. Inference methods based on the resulting model suffer from the curse of dimensionality.

RESULTS

We develop a simulation-based Bayesian MCMC method employing an approximate likelihood for the efficient and accurate inference of GRN parameters when only some of their products are observed. We illustrate our approach using a two-step activation model: an activation signal leads to the accumulation of an unobserved regulatory protein, which triggers the expression of observed fluorescent proteins. With prior information about observed fluorescent protein synthesis, our method successfully infers the dynamics of the unobserved regulatory protein. We can estimate the delay and kinetic parameters characterizing target regulation including transcription, translation, and target searching of an unobserved protein from experimental measurements of the products of its target gene. Our method is scalable and can be used to analyze non-Markovian models with hidden components.

AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION

Our code is implemented in R and is freely available with a simple example data at https://github.com/Mathbiomed/SimMCMC.

Profile-Wise Analysis: A profile likelihood-based workflow for identifiability analysis, estimation, and prediction with mechanistic mathematical models

Interpreting data using mechanistic mathematical models provides a foundation for discovery and decision-making in all areas of science and engineering. Developing mechanistic insight by combining mathematical models and experimental data is especially critical in mathematical biology as new data and new types of data are collected and reported. Key steps in using mechanistic mathematical models to interpret data include: (i) identifiability analysis; (ii) parameter estimation; and (iii) model prediction. Here we present a systematic, computationally-efficient workflow we call Profile-Wise Analysis (PWA) that addresses all three steps in a unified way. Recently-developed methods for constructing 'profile-wise' prediction intervals enable this workflow and provide the central linkage between different workflow components. These methods propagate profile-likelihood-based confidence sets for model parameters to predictions in a way that isolates how different parameter combinations affect model predictions. We show how to extend these profile-wise prediction intervals to two-dimensional interest parameters. We then demonstrate how to combine profile-wise prediction confidence sets to give an overall prediction confidence set that approximates the full likelihood-based prediction confidence set well. Our three case studies illustrate practical aspects of the workflow, focusing on ordinary differential equation (ODE) mechanistic models with both Gaussian and non-Gaussian noise models. While the case studies focus on ODE-based models, the workflow applies to other classes of mathematical models, including partial differential equations and simulation-based stochastic models. Open-source software on GitHub can be used to replicate the case studies.

Accurately summarizing an outbreak using epidemiological models takes time

Recent outbreaks of Mpox and Ebola, and worrying waves of COVID-19, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus, have all led to a sharp increase in the use of epidemiological models to estimate key epidemiological parameters. The feasibility of this estimation task is known as the practical identifiability (PI) problem. Here, we investigate the PI of eight commonly reported statistics of the classic susceptible-infectious-recovered model using a new measure that shows how much a researcher can expect to learn in a model-based Bayesian analysis of prevalence data. Our findings show that the basic reproductive number and final outbreak size are often poorly identified, with learning exceeding that of individual model parameters only in the early stages of an outbreak. The peak intensity, peak timing and initial growth rate are better identified, being in expectation over 20 times more probable having seen the data by the time the underlying outbreak peaks. We then test PI for a variety of true parameter combinations and find that PI is especially problematic in slow-growing or less-severe outbreaks. These results add to the growing body of literature questioning the reliability of inferences from epidemiological models when limited data are available.

Quantifying tissue growth, shape and collision via continuum models and Bayesian inference

Although tissues are usually studied in isolation, this situation rarely occurs in biology, as cells, tissues and organs coexist and interact across scales to determine both shape and function. Here, we take a quantitative approach combining data from recent experiments, mathematical modelling and Bayesian parameter inference, to describe the self-assembly of multiple epithelial sheets by growth and collision. We use two simple and well-studied continuum models, where cells move either randomly or following population pressure gradients. After suitable calibration, both models prove to be practically identifiable, and can reproduce the main features of single tissue expansions. However, our findings reveal that whenever tissue-tissue interactions become relevant, the random motion assumption can lead to unrealistic behaviour. Under this setting, a model accounting for population pressure from different cell populations is more appropriate and shows a better agreement with experimental measurements. Finally, we discuss how tissue shape and pressure affect multi-tissue collisions. Our work thus provides a systematic approach to quantify and predict complex tissue configurations with applications in the design of tissue composites and more generally in tissue engineering.

Far from Asymptopia: Unbiased High-Dimensional Inference Cannot Assume Unlimited Data

Inference from limited data requires a notion of measure on parameter space, which is most explicit in the Bayesian framework as a prior distribution. Jeffreys prior is the best-known uninformative choice, the invariant volume element from information geometry, but we demonstrate here that this leads to enormous bias in typical high-dimensional models. This is because models found in science typically have an effective dimensionality of accessible behaviors much smaller than the number of microscopic parameters. Any measure which treats all of these parameters equally is far from uniform when projected onto the sub-space of relevant parameters, due to variations in the local co-volume of irrelevant directions. We present results on a principled choice of measure which avoids this issue and leads to unbiased posteriors by focusing on relevant parameters. This optimal prior depends on the quantity of data to be gathered, and approaches Jeffreys prior in the asymptotic limit. However, for typical models, this limit cannot be justified without an impossibly large increase in the quantity of data, exponential in the number of microscopic parameters.

Control-Relevant Adaptive Personalized Modeling From Limited Clinical Data for Precise Warfarin Management

Warfarin is a challenging drug to administer due to the narrow therapeutic index of the International Normalized Ratio (INR), the inter- and intra-variability of patients, limited clinical data, genetics, and the effects of other medications. Goal: To predict the optimal warfarin dosage in the presence of the aforementioned challenges, we present an adaptive individualized modeling framework based on model (In)validation and semi-blind robust system identification. The model (In)validation technique adapts the identified individualized patient model according to the change in the patient's status to ensure the model's suitability for prediction and controller design. Results: To implement the proposed adaptive modeling framework, the clinical data of warfarin-INR of forty-four patients has been collected at the Robley Rex Veterans Administration Medical Center, Louisville. The proposed algorithm is compared with recursive ARX and ARMAX model identification methods. The results of identified models using one-step-ahead prediction and minimum mean squared analysis (MMSE) show that the proposed framework effectively predicts the warfarin dosage to keep the INR values within the desired range and adapt the individualized patient model to exhibit the true status of the patient throughout treatment. Conclusion: This paper proposes an adaptive personalized patient modeling framework from limited patientspecific clinical data. It is shown by rigorous simulations that the proposed framework can accurately predict a patient's doseresponse characteristics and it can alert the clinician whenever identified models are no longer suitable for prediction and adapt the model to the current status of the patient to reduce the prediction error.

Geometric analysis enables biological insight from complex non-identifiable models using simple surrogates

An enduring challenge in computational biology is to balance data quality and quantity with model complexity. Tools such as identifiability analysis and information criterion have been developed to harmonise this juxtaposition, yet cannot always resolve the mismatch between available data and the granularity required in mathematical models to answer important biological questions. Often, it is only simple phenomenological models, such as the logistic and Gompertz growth models, that are identifiable from standard experimental measurements. To draw insights from complex, non-identifiable models that incorporate key biological mechanisms of interest, we study the geometry of a map in parameter space from the complex model to a simple, identifiable, surrogate model. By studying how non-identifiable parameters in the complex model quantitatively relate to identifiable parameters in surrogate, we introduce and exploit a layer of interpretation between the set of non-identifiable parameters and the goodness-of-fit metric or likelihood studied in typical identifiability analysis. We demonstrate our approach by analysing a hierarchy of mathematical models for multicellular tumour spheroid growth experiments. Typical data from tumour spheroid experiments are limited and noisy, and corresponding mathematical models are very often made arbitrarily complex. Our geometric approach is able to predict non-identifiabilities, classify non-identifiable parameter spaces into identifiable parameter combinations that relate to features in the data characterised by parameters in a surrogate model, and overall provide additional biological insight from complex non-identifiable models.

Computationally efficient framework for diagnosing, understanding and predicting biphasic population growth

Throughout the life sciences, biological populations undergo multiple phases of growth, often referred to as biphasic growth for the commonly encountered situation involving two phases. Biphasic population growth occurs over a massive range of spatial and temporal scales, ranging from microscopic growth of tumours over several days, to decades-long regrowth of corals in coral reefs that can extend for hundreds of kilometres. Different mathematical models and statistical methods are used to diagnose, understand and predict biphasic growth. Common approaches can lead to inaccurate predictions of future growth that may result in inappropriate management and intervention strategies being implemented. Here, we develop a very general computationally efficient framework, based on profile likelihood analysis, for diagnosing, understanding and predicting biphasic population growth. The two key components of the framework are as follows: (i) an efficient method to form approximate confidence intervals for the change point of the growth dynamics and model parameters and (ii) parameter-wise profile predictions that systematically reveal the influence of individual model parameters on predictions. To illustrate our framework we explore real-world case studies across the life sciences.

Efficient inference and identifiability analysis for differential equation models with random parameters

Heterogeneity is a dominant factor in the behaviour of many biological processes. Despite this, it is common for mathematical and statistical analyses to ignore biological heterogeneity as a source of variability in experimental data. Therefore, methods for exploring the identifiability of models that explicitly incorporate heterogeneity through variability in model parameters are relatively underdeveloped. We develop a new likelihood-based framework, based on moment matching, for inference and identifiability analysis of differential equation models that capture biological heterogeneity through parameters that vary according to probability distributions. As our novel method is based on an approximate likelihood function, it is highly flexible; we demonstrate identifiability analysis using both a frequentist approach based on profile likelihood, and a Bayesian approach based on Markov-chain Monte Carlo. Through three case studies, we demonstrate our method by providing a didactic guide to inference and identifiability analysis of hyperparameters that relate to the statistical moments of model parameters from independent observed data. Our approach has a computational cost comparable to analysis of models that neglect heterogeneity, a significant improvement over many existing alternatives. We demonstrate how analysis of random parameter models can aid better understanding of the sources of heterogeneity from biological data.

Computationally efficient mechanism discovery for cell invasion with uncertainty quantification

Parameter estimation for mathematical models of biological processes is often difficult and depends significantly on the quality and quantity of available data. We introduce an efficient framework using Gaussian processes to discover mechanisms underlying delay, migration, and proliferation in a cell invasion experiment. Gaussian processes are leveraged with bootstrapping to provide uncertainty quantification for the mechanisms that drive the invasion process. Our framework is efficient, parallelisable, and can be applied to other biological problems. We illustrate our methods using a canonical scratch assay experiment, demonstrating how simply we can explore different functional forms and develop and test hypotheses about underlying mechanisms, such as whether delay is present. All code and data to reproduce this work are available at https://github.com/DanielVandH/EquationLearning.jl.

An in-silico analysis of experimental designs to study ventricular function: A focus on the right ventricle

In-vivo studies of pulmonary vascular disease and pulmonary hypertension (PH) have provided key insight into the progression of right ventricular (RV) dysfunction. Additional in-silico experiments using multiscale computational models have provided further details into biventricular mechanics and hemodynamic function in the presence of PH, yet few have assessed whether model parameters are practically identifiable prior to data collection. Moreover, none have used modeling to devise synergistic experimental designs. To address this knowledge gap, we conduct a practical identifiability analysis of a multiscale cardiovascular model across four simulated experimental designs. We determine a set of parameters using a combination of Morris screening and local sensitivity analysis, and test for practical identifiability using profile likelihood-based confidence intervals. We employ Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques to quantify parameter and model forecast uncertainty in the presence of noise corrupted data. Our results show that model calibration to only RV pressure suffers from practical identifiability issues and suffers from large forecast uncertainty in output space. In contrast, parameter and model forecast uncertainty is substantially reduced once additional left ventricular (LV) pressure and volume data is included. A comparison between single point systolic and diastolic LV data and continuous, time-dependent LV pressure-volume data reveals that at least some quantitative data from both ventricles should be included for future experimental studies.

Reliable and efficient parameter estimation using approximate continuum limit descriptions of stochastic models

Stochastic individual-based mathematical models are attractive for modelling biological phenomena because they naturally capture the stochasticity and variability that is often evident in biological data. Such models also allow us to track the motion of individuals within the population of interest. Unfortunately, capturing this microscopic detail means that simulation and parameter inference can become computationally expensive. One approach for overcoming this computational limitation is to coarse-grain the stochastic model to provide an approximate continuum model that can be solved using far less computational effort. However, coarse-grained continuum models can be biased or inaccurate, particularly for certain parameter regimes. In this work, we combine stochastic and continuum mathematical models in the context of lattice-based models of two-dimensional cell biology experiments by demonstrating how to simulate two commonly used experiments: cell proliferation assays and barrier assays. Our approach involves building a simple statistical model of the discrepancy between the expensive stochastic model and the associated computationally inexpensive coarse-grained continuum model. We form this statistical model based on a limited number of expensive stochastic model evaluations at design points sampled from a user-chosen distribution, corresponding to a computer experiment design problem. With straightforward design point selection schemes, we show that using the statistical model of the discrepancy in tandem with the computationally inexpensive continuum model allows us to carry out prediction and inference while correcting for biases and inaccuracies due to the continuum approximation. We demonstrate this approach by simulating a proliferation assay, where the continuum limit model is the well-known logistic ordinary differential equation, as well as a barrier assay where the continuum limit model is closely related to the well-known Fisher-KPP partial differential equation. We construct an approximate likelihood function for parameter inference, both with and without discrepancy correction terms. Using maximum likelihood estimation, we provide point estimates of the unknown parameters, and use the profile likelihood to characterise the uncertainty in these estimates and form approximate confidence intervals. For the range of inference problems considered, working with the continuum limit model alone leads to biased parameter estimation and confidence intervals with poor coverage. In contrast, incorporating correction terms arising from the statistical model of the model discrepancy allows us to recover the parameters accurately with minimal computational overhead. The main tradeoff is that the associated confidence intervals are typically broader, reflecting the additional uncertainty introduced by the approximation process. All algorithms required to replicate the results in this work are written in the open source Julia language and are available at GitHub.

A strategy for determining the equilibrium constants for heteromeric ion channels in a complex model

Ligand-gated ion channels are oligomers containing several binding sites for the ligands. However, the signal transmission from the ligand binding site to the pore has not yet been fully elucidated for any of these channels. In heteromeric channels, the situation is even more complex than in homomeric channels. Using published data for concatamers of heteromeric cyclic nucleotide-gated channels, we show that, on theoretical grounds, multiple functional parameters of the individual subunits can be determined with high precision. The main components of our strategy are (1) the generation of a defined subunit composition by concatenating multiple subunits, (2) the construction of 16 concatameric channels, which differ in systematically permutated binding sites, (3) the determination of respectively differing concentration-activation relationships, and (4) a complex global fit analysis with corresponding intimately coupled Markovian state models. The amount of constraints in this approach is exceedingly high. Furthermore, we propose a stochastic fit analysis with a scaled unitary start vector of identical elements to avoid any bias arising from a specific start vector. Our approach enabled us to determine 23 free parameters, including 4 equilibrium constants for the closed-open isomerizations, 4 disabling factors for the mutations of the different subunits, and 15 virtual equilibrium-association constants in the context of a 4-D hypercube. From the virtual equilibrium-association constants, we could determine 32 equilibrium-association constants of the subunits at different degrees of ligand binding. Our strategy can be generalized and is therefore adaptable to other ion channels.

Probing function in ligand-gated ion channels without measuring ion transport

Although the functional properties of ion channels are most accurately assessed using electrophysiological approaches, a number of experimental situations call for alternative methods. Here, working on members of the pentameric ligand-gated ion channel (pLGIC) superfamily, we focused on the practical implementation of, and the interpretation of results from, equilibrium-type ligand-binding assays. Ligand-binding studies of pLGICs are by no means new, but the lack of uniformity in published protocols, large disparities between the results obtained for a given parameter by different groups, and a general disregard for constraints placed on the experimental observations by simple theoretical considerations suggested that a thorough analysis of this classic technique was in order. To this end, we present a detailed practical and theoretical study of this type of assay using radiolabeled α-bungarotoxin, unlabeled small-molecule cholinergic ligands, the human homomeric α7-AChR, and extensive calculations in the framework of a realistic five-binding-site reaction scheme. Furthermore, we show examples of the practical application of this method to tackle two longstanding questions in the field: our results suggest that ligand-binding affinities are insensitive to binding-site occupancy and that mutations to amino-acid residues in the transmembrane domain are unlikely to affect the channel's affinities for ligands that bind to the extracellular domain.

Bayesian inference of kinetic schemes for ion channels by Kalman filtering

Inferring adequate kinetic schemes for ion channel gating from ensemble currents is a daunting task due to limited information in the data. We address this problem by using a parallelized Bayesian filter to specify hidden Markov models for current and fluorescence data. We demonstrate the flexibility of this algorithm by including different noise distributions. Our generalized Kalman filter outperforms both a classical Kalman filter and a rate equation approach when applied to patch-clamp data exhibiting realistic open-channel noise. The derived generalization also enables inclusion of orthogonal fluorescence data, making unidentifiable parameters identifiable and increasing the accuracy of the parameter estimates by an order of magnitude. By using Bayesian highest credibility volumes, we found that our approach, in contrast to the rate equation approach, yields a realistic uncertainty quantification. Furthermore, the Bayesian filter delivers negligibly biased estimates for a wider range of data quality. For some data sets, it identifies more parameters than the rate equation approach. These results also demonstrate the power of assessing the validity of algorithms by Bayesian credibility volumes in general. Finally, we show that our Bayesian filter is more robust against errors induced by either analog filtering before analog-to-digital conversion or by limited time resolution of fluorescence data than a rate equation approach.

Identifying cell-to-cell variability in internalization using flow cytometry

Biological heterogeneity is a primary contributor to the variation observed in experiments that probe dynamical processes, such as the internalization of material by cells. Given that internalization is a critical process by which many therapeutics and viruses reach their intracellular site of action, quantifying cell-to-cell variability in internalization is of high biological interest. Yet, it is common for studies of internalization to neglect cell-to-cell variability. We develop a simple mathematical model of internalization that captures the dynamical behaviour, cell-to-cell variation, and extrinsic noise introduced by flow cytometry. We calibrate our model through a novel distribution-matching approximate Bayesian computation algorithm to flow cytometry data of internalization of anti-transferrin receptor antibody in a human B-cell lymphoblastoid cell line. This approach provides information relating to the region of the parameter space, and consequentially the nature of cell-to-cell variability, that produces model realizations consistent with the experimental data. Given that our approach is agnostic to sample size and signal-to-noise ratio, our modelling framework is broadly applicable to identify biological variability in single-cell data from internalization assays and similar experiments that probe cellular dynamical processes.

Parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification using information geometry

In this work, we: (i) review likelihood-based inference for parameter estimation and the construction of confidence regions; and (ii) explore the use of techniques from information geometry, including geodesic curves and Riemann scalar curvature, to supplement typical techniques for uncertainty quantification, such as Bayesian methods, profile likelihood, asymptotic analysis and bootstrapping. These techniques from information geometry provide data-independent insights into uncertainty and identifiability, and can be used to inform data collection decisions. All code used in this work to implement the inference and information geometry techniques is available on GitHub.

DNA-structured mathematical model of cell-cycle progression in cyclic hypoxia

New experimental data have shown how the periodic exposure of cells to low oxygen levels (i.e., cyclic hypoxia) impacts their progress through the cell-cycle. Cyclic hypoxia has been detected in tumours and linked to poor prognosis and treatment failure. While fluctuating oxygen environments can be reproduced in vitro, the range of oxygen cycles that can be tested is limited. By contrast, mathematical models can be used to predict the response to a wide range of cyclic dynamics. Accordingly, in this paper we develop a mechanistic model of the cell-cycle that can be combined with in vitro experiments, to better understand the link between cyclic hypoxia and cell-cycle dysregulation. A distinguishing feature of our model is the inclusion of impaired DNA synthesis and cell-cycle arrest due to periodic exposure to severely low oxygen levels. Our model decomposes the cell population into five compartments and a time-dependent delay accounts for the variability in the duration of the S phase which increases in severe hypoxia due to reduced rates of DNA synthesis. We calibrate our model against experimental data and show that it recapitulates the observed cell-cycle dynamics. We use the calibrated model to investigate the response of cells to oxygen cycles not yet tested experimentally. When the re-oxygenation phase is sufficiently long, our model predicts that cyclic hypoxia simply slows cell proliferation since cells spend more time in the S phase. On the contrary, cycles with short periods of re-oxygenation are predicted to lead to inhibition of proliferation, with cells arresting from the cell-cycle in the G2 phase. While model predictions on short time scales (about a day) are fairly accurate (i.e, confidence intervals are small), the predictions become more uncertain over longer periods. Hence, we use our model to inform experimental design that can lead to improved model parameter estimates and validate model predictions.

Designing and interpreting 4D tumour spheroid experiments

Tumour spheroid experiments are routinely used to study cancer progression and treatment. Various and inconsistent experimental designs are used, leading to challenges in interpretation and reproducibility. Using multiple experimental designs, live-dead cell staining, and real-time cell cycle imaging, we measure necrotic and proliferation-inhibited regions in over 1000 4D tumour spheroids (3D space plus cell cycle status). By intentionally varying the initial spheroid size and temporal sampling frequencies across multiple cell lines, we collect an abundance of measurements of internal spheroid structure. These data are difficult to compare and interpret. However, using an objective mathematical modelling framework and statistical identifiability analysis we quantitatively compare experimental designs and identify design choices that produce reliable biological insight. Measurements of internal spheroid structure provide the most insight, whereas varying initial spheroid size and temporal measurement frequency is less important. Our general framework applies to spheroids grown in different conditions and with different cell types.

Population pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modeling of PB2452, a monoclonal antibody fragment being developed as a ticagrelor reversal agent, in healthy volunteers

PB2452, a neutralizing monoclonal antibody fragment that binds the antiplatelet drug ticagrelor with high affinity, is being developed as a ticagrelor reversal agent. To identify a clinically useful intravenous (i.v.) reversal regimen, a semimechanistic exposure-response model was developed during the PB2452 first-in-human phase I study. From a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, single-dose trial to evaluate the safety, efficacy, and pharmacokinetics (PKs) of PB2452 in 61 healthy volunteers pretreated with ticagrelor, sequential dose cohort data were used to build and refine an exposure-response model that combined population PK models for ticagrelor (TICA), ticagrelor active metabolite (TAM), and PB2452, and related their binding relationships to the PK of uncomplexed TICA and TAM which is predictive of platelet inhibition. Platelet function was assessed by multiple assays. The model was developed using Bayesian methods in NONMEM. Human PK and pharmacodynamic data from sequential dose cohorts were used to initially define and then refine model parameters. Model simulations indicated that an initial i.v. bolus of PB2452, followed by a high-rate infusion, and then a slower-rate infusion would provide immediate and sustained reversal of the antiplatelet effects of ticagrelor. Based on model predictions, a 6 g i.v. bolus followed by 6 g infused over 4 h and then 6 g over 12 h was identified and tested in study subjects and shown to provide complete reversal within 5 min of infusion onset that was sustained for 20-24 h. The model is predictive of the reversal profile of PB2452 and will inform future trials of PB2452.

Quantitative analysis of tumour spheroid structure

Tumour spheroids are common in vitro experimental models of avascular tumour growth. Compared with traditional two-dimensional culture, tumour spheroids more closely mimic the avascular tumour microenvironment where spatial differences in nutrient availability strongly influence growth. We show that spheroids initiated using significantly different numbers of cells grow to similar limiting sizes, suggesting that avascular tumours have a limiting structure; in agreement with untested predictions of classical mathematical models of tumour spheroids. We develop a novel mathematical and statistical framework to study the structure of tumour spheroids seeded from cells transduced with fluorescent cell cycle indicators, enabling us to discriminate between arrested and cycling cells and identify an arrested region. Our analysis shows that transient spheroid structure is independent of initial spheroid size, and the limiting structure can be independent of seeding density. Standard experimental protocols compare spheroid size as a function of time; however, our analysis suggests that comparing spheroid structure as a function of overall size produces results that are relatively insensitive to variability in spheroid size. Our experimental observations are made using two melanoma cell lines, but our modelling framework applies across a wide range of spheroid culture conditions and cell lines.

Hierarchical Bayesian models of transcriptional and translational regulation processes with delays

MOTIVATION

Simultaneous recordings of gene network dynamics across large populations have revealed that cell characteristics vary considerably even in clonal lines. Inferring the variability of parameters that determine gene dynamics is key to understanding cellular behavior. However, this is complicated by the fact that the outcomes and effects of many reactions are not observable directly. Unobserved reactions can be replaced with time delays to reduce model dimensionality and simplify inference. However, the resulting models are non-Markovian, and require the development of new inference techniques.

RESULTS

We propose a non-Markovian, hierarchical Bayesian inference framework for quantifying the variability of cellular processes within and across cells in a population. We illustrate our approach using a delayed birth-death process. In general, a distributed delay model, rather than a popular fixed delay model, is needed for inference, even if only mean reaction delays are of interest. Using in silico and experimental data we show that the proposed hierarchical framework is robust and leads to improved estimates compared to its non-hierarchical counterpart. We apply our method to data obtained using time-lapse microscopy and infer the parameters that describe the dynamics of protein production at the single cell and population level. The mean delays in protein production are larger than previously reported, have a coefficient of variation of around 0.2 across the population, and are not strongly correlated with protein production or growth rates.

AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION

Accompanying code in Python is available at https://github.com/mvcortez/Bayesian-Inference.

CONTACT

kresimir.josic@gmail.com or jaekkim@kaist.ac.kr or cbskust@korea.ac.kr.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Model-based data analysis of tissue growth in thin 3D printed scaffolds

Tissue growth in three-dimensional (3D) printed scaffolds enables exploration and control of cell behaviour in more biologically realistic geometries than that allowed by traditional 2D cell culture. Cell proliferation and migration in these experiments have yet to be explicitly characterised, limiting the ability of experimentalists to determine the effects of various experimental conditions, such as scaffold geometry, on cell behaviour. We consider tissue growth by osteoblastic cells in melt electro-written scaffolds that comprise thin square pores with sizes that were deliberately increased between experiments. We collect highly detailed temporal measurements of the average cell density, tissue coverage, and tissue geometry. To quantify tissue growth in terms of the underlying cell proliferation and migration processes, we introduce and calibrate a mechanistic mathematical model based on the Porous-Fisher reaction-diffusion equation. Parameter estimates and uncertainty quantification through profile likelihood analysis reveal consistency in the rate of cell proliferation and steady-state cell density between pore sizes. This analysis also serves as an important model verification tool: while the use of reaction-diffusion models in biology is widespread, the appropriateness of these models to describe tissue growth in 3D scaffolds has yet to be explored. We find that the Porous-Fisher model is able to capture features relating to the cell density and tissue coverage, but is not able to capture geometric features relating to the circularity of the tissue interface. Our analysis identifies two distinct stages of tissue growth, suggests several areas for model refinement, and provides guidance for future experimental work that explores tissue growth in 3D printed scaffolds.

Interrogating theoretical models of neural computation with emergent property inference

A cornerstone of theoretical neuroscience is the circuit model: a system of equations that captures a hypothesized neural mechanism. Such models are valuable when they give rise to an experimentally observed phenomenon -- whether behavioral or a pattern of neural activity -- and thus can offer insights into neural computation. The operation of these circuits, like all models, critically depends on the choice of model parameters. A key step is then to identify the model parameters consistent with observed phenomena: to solve the inverse problem. In this work, we present a novel technique, emergent property inference (EPI), that brings the modern probabilistic modeling toolkit to theoretical neuroscience. When theorizing circuit models, theoreticians predominantly focus on reproducing computational properties rather than a particular dataset. Our method uses deep neural networks to learn parameter distributions with these computational properties. This methodology is introduced through a motivational example of parameter inference in the stomatogastric ganglion. EPI is then shown to allow precise control over the behavior of inferred parameters and to scale in parameter dimension better than alternative techniques. In the remainder of this work, we present novel theoretical findings in models of primary visual cortex and superior colliculus, which were gained through the examination of complex parametric structure captured by EPI. Beyond its scientific contribution, this work illustrates the variety of analyses possible once deep learning is harnessed towards solving theoretical inverse problems.

Kinetic sequencing (k-Seq) as a massively parallel assay for ribozyme kinetics: utility and critical parameters

Characterizing genotype-phenotype relationships of biomolecules (e.g. ribozymes) requires accurate ways to measure activity for a large set of molecules. Kinetic measurement using high-throughput sequencing (e.g. k-Seq) is an emerging assay applicable in various domains that potentially scales up measurement throughput to over 106 unique nucleic acid sequences. However, maximizing the return of such assays requires understanding the technical challenges introduced by sequence heterogeneity and DNA sequencing. We characterized the k-Seq method in terms of model identifiability, effects of sequencing error, accuracy and precision using simulated datasets and experimental data from a variant pool constructed from previously identified ribozymes. Relative abundance, kinetic coefficients, and measurement noise were found to affect the measurement of each sequence. We introduced bootstrapping to robustly quantify the uncertainty in estimating model parameters and proposed interpretable metrics to quantify model identifiability. These efforts enabled the rigorous reporting of data quality for individual sequences in k-Seq experiments. Here we present detailed protocols, define critical experimental factors, and identify general guidelines to maximize the number of sequences and their measurement accuracy from k-Seq data. Analogous practices could be applied to improve the rigor of other sequencing-based assays.

cAMP binding to closed pacemaker ion channels is non-cooperative

Electrical activity in the brain and heart depends on rhythmic generation of action potentials by pacemaker ion channels (HCN) whose activity is regulated by cAMP binding1. Previous work has uncovered evidence for both positive and negative cooperativity in cAMP binding2,3, but such bulk measurements suffer from limited parameter resolution. Efforts to eliminate this ambiguity using single-molecule techniques have been hampered by the inability to directly monitor binding of individual ligand molecules to membrane receptors at physiological concentrations. Here we overcome these challenges using nanophotonic zero-mode waveguides4 to directly resolve binding dynamics of individual ligands to multimeric HCN1 and HCN2 ion channels. We show that cAMP binds independently to all four subunits when the pore is closed, despite a subsequent conformational isomerization to a flip state at each site. The different dynamics in binding and isomerization are likely to underlie physiologically distinct responses of each isoform to cAMP5 and provide direct validation of the ligand-induced flip-state model6-9. This approach for observing stepwise binding in multimeric proteins at physiologically relevant concentrations can directly probe binding allostery at single-molecule resolution in other intact membrane proteins and receptors.

Statistical Approach to Incorporating Experimental Variability into a Mathematical Model of the Voltage-Gated Na+ Channel and Human Atrial Action Potential

The voltage-gated Na⁺ channel Na_v1.5 is critical for normal cardiac myocyte excitability. Mathematical models have been widely used to study Na_v1.5 function and link to a range of cardiac arrhythmias. There is growing appreciation for the importance of incorporating physiological heterogeneity observed even in a healthy population into mathematical models of the cardiac action potential. Here, we apply methods from Bayesian statistics to capture the variability in experimental measurements on human atrial Na_v1.5 across experimental protocols and labs. This variability was used to define a physiological distribution for model parameters in a novel model formulation of Na_v1.5, which was then incorporated into an existing human atrial action potential model. Model validation was performed by comparing the simulated distribution of action potential upstroke velocity measurements to experimental measurements from several different sources. Going forward, we hope to apply this approach to other major atrial ion channels to create a comprehensive model of the human atrial AP. We anticipate that such a model will be useful for understanding excitability at the population level, including variable drug response and penetrance of variants linked to inherited cardiac arrhythmia syndromes.

Profile likelihood analysis for a stochastic model of diffusion in heterogeneous media

We compute profile likelihoods for a stochastic model of diffusive transport motivated by experimental observations of heat conduction in layered skin tissues. This process is modelled as a random walk in a layered one-dimensional material, where each layer has a distinct particle hopping rate. Particles are released at some location, and the duration of time taken for each particle to reach an absorbing boundary is recorded. To explore whether these data can be used to identify the hopping rates in each layer, we compute various profile likelihoods using two methods: first, an exact likelihood is evaluated using a relatively expensive Markov chain approach; and, second, we form an approximate likelihood by assuming the distribution of exit times is given by a Gamma distribution whose first two moments match the moments from the continuum limit description of the stochastic model. Using the exact and approximate likelihoods, we construct various profile likelihoods for a range of problems. In cases where parameter values are not identifiable, we make progress by re-interpreting those data with a reduced model with a smaller number of layers.

Identifiability analysis for stochastic differential equation models in systems biology

Mathematical models are routinely calibrated to experimental data, with goals ranging from building predictive models to quantifying parameters that cannot be measured. Whether or not reliable parameter estimates are obtainable from the available data can easily be overlooked. Such issues of parameter identifiability have important ramifications for both the predictive power of a model, and the mechanistic insight that can be obtained. Identifiability analysis is well-established for deterministic, ordinary differential equation (ODE) models, but there are no commonly adopted methods for analysing identifiability in stochastic models. We provide an accessible introduction to identifiability analysis and demonstrate how existing ideas for analysis of ODE models can be applied to stochastic differential equation (SDE) models through four practical case studies. To assess structural identifiability, we study ODEs that describe the statistical moments of the stochastic process using open-source software tools. Using practically motivated synthetic data and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, we assess parameter identifiability in the context of available data. Our analysis shows that SDE models can often extract more information about parameters than deterministic descriptions. All code used to perform the analysis is available on Github.

Ensuring identifiability in hierarchical mixed effects Bayesian models

Ecologists are increasingly familiar with Bayesian statistical modeling and its associated Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methodology to infer about or to discover interesting effects in data. The complexity of ecological data often suggests implementation of (statistical) models with a commensurately rich structure of effects, including crossed or nested (i.e., hierarchical or multi-level) structures of fixed and/or random effects. Yet, our experience suggests that most ecologists are not familiar with subtle but important problems that often arise with such models and with their implementation in popular software. Of foremost consideration for us is the notion of effect identifiability, which generally concerns how well data, models, or implementation approaches inform about, i.e., identify, quantities of interest. In this paper, we focus on implementation pitfalls that potentially misinform subsequent inference, despite otherwise informative data and models. We illustrate the aforementioned issues using random effects regressions on synthetic data. We show how to diagnose identifiability issues and how to remediate these issues with model reparameterization and computational and/or coding practices in popular software, with a focus on JAGS, OpenBUGS, and Stan. We also show how these solutions can be extended to more complex models involving multiple groups of nested, crossed, additive, or multiplicative effects, for models involving random and/or fixed effects. Finally, we provide example code (JAGS/OpenBUGS and Stan) that practitioners can modify and use for their own applications.

Identifiability of a Binomial Synapse

Synapses are highly stochastic transmission units. A classical model describing this stochastic transmission is called the binomial model, and its underlying parameters can be estimated from postsynaptic responses to evoked stimuli. The accuracy of parameter estimates obtained via such a model-based approach depends on the identifiability of the model. A model is said to be structurally identifiable if its parameters can be uniquely inferred from the distribution of its outputs. However, this theoretical property does not necessarily imply practical identifiability. For instance, if the number of observations is low or if the recording noise is high, the model's parameters can only be loosely estimated. Structural identifiability, which is an intrinsic property of a model, has been widely characterized; but practical identifiability, which is a property of both the model and the experimental protocol, is usually only qualitatively assessed. Here, we propose a formal definition for the practical identifiability domain of a statistical model. For a given experimental protocol, this domain corresponds to the set of parameters for which the model is correctly identified as the ground truth compared to a simpler alternative model. Considering a model selection problem instead of a parameter inference problem allows to derive a non-arbitrary criterion for practical identifiability. We apply our definition to the study of neurotransmitter release at a chemical synapse. Our contribution to the analysis of synaptic stochasticity is three-fold: firstly, we propose a quantitative criterion for the practical identifiability of a statistical model, and compute the identifiability domains of different variants of the binomial release model (uni or multi-quantal, with or without short-term plasticity); secondly, we extend the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), a classically used tool for model selection, to models with correlated data (which is the case for most models of chemical synapses); finally, we show that our approach allows to perform data free model selection, i.e., to verify if a model used to fit data was indeed identifiable even without access to the data, but having only access to the fitted parameters.

Calibration of ionic and cellular cardiac electrophysiology models

Cardiac electrophysiology models are among the most mature and well-studied mathematical models of biological systems. This maturity is bringing new challenges as models are being used increasingly to make quantitative rather than qualitative predictions. As such, calibrating the parameters within ion current and action potential (AP) models to experimental data sets is a crucial step in constructing a predictive model. This review highlights some of the fundamental concepts in cardiac model calibration and is intended to be readily understood by computational and mathematical modelers working in other fields of biology. We discuss the classic and latest approaches to calibration in the electrophysiology field, at both the ion channel and cellular AP scales. We end with a discussion of the many challenges that work to date has raised and the need for reproducible descriptions of the calibration process to enable models to be recalibrated to new data sets and built upon for new studies. This article is categorized under: Analytical and Computational Methods > Computational Methods Physiology > Mammalian Physiology in Health and Disease Models of Systems Properties and Processes > Cellular Models.

Modeling the Critical Activation of Chaperone Machinery in Protein Folding

Protein homeostasis is a dynamic network that plays a pivotal role in systems' maintenance within a cell. This quality control system involves a number of mechanisms regarding the process of protein folding. Chaperones play a critical role in the folding, refolding, and unfolding of proteins. Aggregation of misfolded proteins is a common characteristic of neurodegenerative diseases. Chaperones act in a variety of pathways in this critical interplay between protein homeostasis network and misfolded protein's load. Moreover, ER stress-induced cell death mechanisms (such as the unfolded protein response) are activated as a response. Therefore, there is a critical balance in the accumulation of misfolded proteins and ER stress response mechanisms which can lead to cell death. Our focus is in understanding the different mechanisms that govern ER stress signaling in health and disease in order to represent the regulation of protein homeostasis and balance of protein synthesis and degradation in the ER. Our proposed model describes, using hybrid modeling, the function of chaperones' machinery for protein folding.