Are whooping cranes destined for extinction? Climate change imperils recruitment and population growth

Identifying climatic drivers of an animal population's vital rates and locating where they operate steers conservation efforts to optimize species recovery. The population growth of endangered whooping cranes (Grus americana) hinges on juvenile recruitment. Therefore, we identify climatic drivers (solar activity [sunspots] and weather) of whooping crane recruitment throughout the species’ life cycle (breeding, migration, wintering). Our method uses a repeated cross‐validated absolute shrinkage and selection operator approach to identify drivers of recruitment. We model effects of climate change on those drivers to predict whooping crane population growth given alternative scenarios of climate change and solar activity. Years with fewer sunspots indicated greater recruitment. Increased precipitation during autumn migration signified less recruitment. On the breeding grounds, fewer days below freezing during winter and more precipitation during breeding suggested less recruitment. We predicted whooping crane recruitment and population growth may fall below long‐term averages during all solar cycles when atmospheric CO₂ concentration increases, as expected, to 500 ppm by 2050. Species recovery during a typical solar cycle with 500 ppm may require eight times longer than conditions without climate change and the chance of population decline increases to 31%. Although this whooping crane population is growing and may appear secure, long‐term threats imposed by climate change and increased solar activity may jeopardize its persistence. Weather on the breeding grounds likely affects recruitment through hydrological processes and predation risk, whereas precipitation during autumn migration may influence juvenile mortality. Mitigating threats or abating climate change should occur within ≈30 years or this wild population of whooping cranes may begin declining.

Linking climate change to population cycles of hares and lynx

The classic 10-year population cycle of snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus, Erxleben 1777) and Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis, Kerr 1792) in the boreal forests of North America has drawn much attention from both population and community ecologists worldwide; however, the ecological mechanisms driving the 10-year cyclic dynamic pattern are not fully revealed yet. In this study, by the use of historic fur harvest data, we constructed a series of generalized additive models to study the effects of density dependence, predation, and climate (both global climate indices of North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO), Southern Oscillation index (SOI) and northern hemispheric temperature (NHT) and local weather data including temperature, rainfall, and snow). We identified several key pathways from global and local climate to lynx with various time lags: rainfall shows a negative, and snow shows a positive effect on lynx; NHT and NAO negatively affect lynx through their positive effect on rainfall and negative effect on snow; SOI positively affects lynx through its negative effect on rainfall. Direct or delayed density dependency effects, the prey effect of hare on lynx and a 2-year delayed negative effect of lynx on hare (defined as asymmetric predation) were found. The simulated population dynamics is well fitted to the observed long-term fluctuations of hare and lynx populations. Through simulation, we find density dependency and asymmetric predation, only producing damped oscillation, are necessary but not sufficient factors in causing the observed 10-year cycles; while extrinsic climate factors are important in producing and modifying the sustained cycles. Two recent population declines of lynx (1940-1955 and after 1980) were likely caused by ongoing climate warming indirectly. Our results provide an alternative explanation to the mechanism of the 10-year cycles, and there is a need for further investigation on links between disappearance of population cycles and global warming in hare-lynx system.

Solar activity affects avian timing of reproduction

Avian timing of reproduction is strongly affected by ambient temperature. Here we show that there is an additional effect of sunspots on laying date, from five long-term population studies of great and blue tits (Parus major and Cyanistes caeruleus), demonstrating for the first time that solar activity not only has an effect on population numbers but that it also affects the timing of animal behaviour. This effect is statistically independent of ambient temperature. In years with few sunspots, birds initiate laying late while they are often early in years with many sunspots. The sunspot effect may be owing to a crucial difference between the method of temperature measurements by meteorological stations (in the shade) and the temperatures experienced by the birds. A better understanding of the impact of all the thermal components of weather on the phenology of ecosystems is essential when predicting their responses to climate change.

Understanding ecosystem dynamics for conservation of biota

1. Ecosystems have higher-order emerging properties that can affect the conservation of species. We identify some of these properties in order to facilitate a better understanding of them. 2. Nonlinear, indirect effects of food web interactions among species can produce counterintuitive changes in populations. 3. Species differ in their roles and linkages with other species in the system. These roles are a property of the system. Such differences in roles influence how we conserve individual species. 4. Ecosystems operate at a multitude of interacting spatial and temporal scales, which together structure the system and affect the dynamics of individual populations. 5. Disturbance also structures an ecosystem, producing both long-term slow changes and sudden shifts in ecosystem dynamics. 6. Ecosystems therefore can have multiple states, determined both by disturbance regimes and biotic interactions. Conservation should recognize a possible multiplicity of natural states while avoiding aberrant (human-induced) states. 7. Ecosystem processes are influenced by the composition of the biota they contain. Disturbances to the biota can distort processes and functions, which in turn can endanger individual species. 8. The goal of ecosystem conservation is the long-term persistence of the biota in the system. There are two paradigms: community-based conservation (CBC) and protected area conservation. Both have their advantages but neither is sufficient to protect the biota on its own. 9. CBC is required to conserve the majority of the world's biota not included in protected areas. However, current CBC methods favour a few idiosyncratic species, distort the species complex, and ignore the majority. More comprehensive methods are required for this approach to meet the goal of ecosystem conservation. 10. Protected areas are essential to conserve species unable to coexist with humans. They also function as ecological baselines to monitor the effects of humans on their own ecosystems. 11. However, protected areas suffer from loss of habitat through attrition of critical areas. Thus, renewal (addition) of habitat is required in order to achieve the long-term persistence of biota in functioning ecosystems. Identification of minimum habitat areas and restoration of ecosystems become two major priorities for future research.

Predicting [corrected] extinction risk in spite of predator-prey oscillations

Most population viability analyses (PVA) assume that the effects of species interactions are subsumed by population-level parameters. We examine how robust five commonly used PVA models are to violations of this assumption. We develop a stochastic, stage-structured predator-prey model and simulate prey population vital rates and abundance. We then use simulated data to parameterize and estimate risk for three demographic models (static projection matrix, stochastic projection matrix, stochastic vital rate matrix) and two time series models (diffusion approximation [DA], corrupted diffusion approximation [CDA]). Model bias is measured as the absolute deviation between estimated and observed quasi-extinction risk. Our results highlight three generalities about the application of single-species models to multi-species conservation problems. First, our collective model results suggest that most single-species PVA models overestimate extinction risk when species interactions cause periodic variation in abundance. Second, the DA model produces the most (conservatively) biased risk forecasts. Finally, the CDA model is the most robust PVA to population cycles caused by species interactions. CDA models produce virtually unbiased and relatively precise risk estimates even when populations cycle strongly. High performance of simple time series models like the CDA owes to their ability to effectively partition stochastic and deterministic sources of variation in population abundance.

Correlated cycles of snowshoe hares and Dall’s sheep lambs

We tested the hypothesis that the number of surviving lambs counted in mid-summer from a Dall’s sheep ( Ovis dalli Nelson, 1884) population on Sheep Mountain, Yukon, Canada, is correlated to the density of snowshoe hares ( Lepus americanus Erxleben, 1777) in the surrounding boreal forest. We examined correlations between the number of lambs and the number of snowshoe hares at different phases in the 10-year snowshoe hare cycle. There were significant cross-correlations between the ratio of lambs to nursery sheep and hare densities with 1- and 2-year time lags. Lamb numbers also showed clockwise rotation with respect to hare densities when points were joined chronologically. Simple population models suggest several relationships: when hare densities are high, lamb population growth rates are inversely related to hare densities; during the low phase of the hare population cycle, lamb population growth rates show density-independent fluctuations. In the absence of compelling evidence for direct interactions between Dall’s sheep and hares, we hypothesize that the inverse relationship between lamb population growth and hare density is mediated indirectly by shared predators.

Porcupine Feeding Scars and Climatic Data Show Ecosystem Effects of the Solar Cycle

Using North American porcupine (Erethizon dorsatum) feeding scars on trees as an index of past porcupine abundance, we have found that porcupine populations have fluctuated regularly over the past 130 years in the Bas St. Laurent region of eastern Quebec, with superimposed periodicities of 11 and 22 years. Coherency and phase analyses showed that this porcupine population cycle has closely followed the 11- and 22-year solar activity cycles. Fluctuations in local precipitation and temperature were also cyclic and closely related to both the solar cycle and the porcupine cycle. Our results suggest that the solar cycle indirectly sets the rhythm of population fluctuations of the most abundant vertebrate herbivore in the ecosystem we studied. We hypothesize that the solar cycle has sufficiently important effects on the climate along the southern shore of the St. Lawrence estuary to locally influence terrestrial ecosystem functioning. This constitutes strong evidence for the possibility of a causal link between solar variability and terrestrial ecology at the decadal timescale and local spatial scale, which confirms results obtained at greater temporal and spatial scales.

Mammal population cycles: evidence for intrinsic differences during snowshoe hare cycles

Some mammals in high northern latitudes show regular population cycles. In snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus), these occur every 9–10 years. One hypothesis proposes extrinsic causes such as food shortage or predation. The other proposes intrinsic causes through different morphs that alternate between different phases of the cycle. The morphs should differ in behaviour or physiology. This hypothesis predicts that animal lineages bred from high and low phases of the population cycle should differ in reproduction and survivorship. In a 16-year breeding program, lineages of purebred high-phase female hares had reduced reproductive rates relative to those of purebred low-phase females, resulting in extinction of high-phase lineages. Reproductive output declined with age in high- but not low-phase animals. These lineages also differed in longevity and senescence. These results are consistent with the intrinsic hypothesis and suggest a mechanism for alternating population densities that could work synergistically with extrinsic causes like predation and food shortage.

Spatial coupling in cyclic population dynamics: models and data

We use a dynamic random field to model a spatial collection of coupled oscillators with discrete time stochastic dynamics. At each time step the phase of each cyclic local population is subject to random noise, incremented by a common dynamic, and pulled by a coupling force in the direction of some collective mean phase. We define asynchrony and derive expressions for its measurement in this model. We describe robust methods for phase estimation of cyclic population time series, for estimating strength of coupling between local populations, and for measuring variance of locally acting noise from field data. Proposed methods allow intermittently acting phase synchronizing events operating over large spatial scales to be distinguished from more continuous and possibly locally acting coupling, both of which could result in elevated levels of phase synchronization. We demonstrate the utility of this approach by applying it to classical spatial time series data of Canadian lynx. Analysis confirms findings of previous studies and reveals evidence to suggest that interpopulation coupling was weaker over the 20th century than for the 1800s. Analysis supports the notion that synchrony in these populations is maintained by a continuous and locally acting coupling between adjacent regions with large phase adjustments occurring only infrequently. When this coupling is absent, asynchrony develops between populations.

Spatial population dynamics: analyzing patterns and processes of population synchrony

The search for mechanisms behind spatial population synchrony is currently a major issue in population ecology. Theoretical studies highlight how synchronizing mechanisms such as dispersal, regionally correlated climatic variables and mobile enemies might interact with local dynamics to produce different patterns of spatial covariance. Specialized statistical methods, applied to large-scale survey data, aid in testing the theoretical predictions with empirical estimates. Observational studies and experiments on the demography of local populations are paramount to identify the true ecological mechanisms. The recent achievements illustrate the power of combining theory, observation and/or experimentation and statistical modeling in the ecological research protocol.

Complex dynamics and phase synchronization in spatially extended ecological systems

Population cycles that persist in time and are synchronized over space pervade ecological systems, but their underlying causes remain a long-standing enigma. Here we examine the synchronization of complex population oscillations in networks of model communities and in natural systems, where phenomena such as unusual '4- and 10-year cycle' of wildlife are often found. In the proposed spatial model, each local patch sustains a three-level trophic system composed of interacting predators, consumers and vegetation. Populations oscillate regularly and periodically in phase, but with irregular and chaotic peaks together in abundance-twin realistic features that are not found in standard ecological models. In a spatial lattice of patches, only small amounts of local migration are required to induce broad-scale 'phase synchronization, with all populations in the lattice phase-locking to the same collective rhythm. Peak population abundances, however, remain chaotic and largely uncorrelated. Although synchronization is often perceived as being detrimental to spatially structured populations, phase synchronization leads to the emergence of complex chaotic travelling-wave structures which may be crucial for species persistence.

Spatial asynchrony and periodic travelling waves in cyclic populations of field voles

We demonstrate evidence for the presence of travelling waves in a cyclic population of field voles in northern Britain by fitting simple, empirical models to spatially referenced time series data. Population cycles were broadly synchronous at all sites, but use of Mantel correlations suggested a strong spatial pattern along one axis at a projection line 72 degrees from North. We then fitted a generalized additive model to log population density assuming a fixed-form travelling wave in one spatial dimension for which the density at each site was offset in time by a constant amount from a standard density-time curve. We assumed that the magnitude of this offset would be proportional to the spatial separation between any given site and the centroid of the sampling sites, where separation is the distance between sites in a fixed direction. After fitting this model, we estimated that the wave moved at an average speed of 19 km yr-1, heading from West to East at an angle of 78 degrees from North. Nomadic avian predators which could synchronize populations over large areas are scarce and the travelling wave may be caused by density-dependent dispersal by field voles and/or predation by weasels, both of which act at a suitably small spatial scale.