Variation in Continuous Reaction Norms: Quantifying Directions of Biological Interest

Intraspecific Diversity in Thermal Performance Determines Phytoplankton Ecological Niche

Temperature has a primary influence on phytoplankton physiology and ecology. We grew 12 strains of Gephyrocapsa huxleyi isolated from different-temperature regions for ~45 generations (2 months) and characterised acclimated thermal response curves across a temperature range. Even with similar temperature optima and overlapping cell size, strain growth rates varied between 0.45 and 1 day-1. Thermal niche widths varied from 16.7°C to 24.8°C, suggesting that strains use distinct thermal response mechanisms. We investigated the implications of this thermal intraspecific diversity using an ocean ecosystem simulation resolving phytoplankton thermal phenotypes. Model analogues of thermal 'generalists' and 'specialists' resulted in a distinctive global biogeography of thermal niche widths with a nonlinear latitudinal pattern. We leveraged model output to predict ranges of the 12 lab-reared strains and demonstrated how this approach could broadly refine geographic range predictions. Our combination of observations and modelled biogeography highlights the capacity of diverse groups to survive temperature shifts.

When indices disagree: facing conceptual and practical challenges

Hypothesis testing requires meaningful ways to quantify biological phenomena and account for alternative mechanisms that could explain the same pattern. Researchers combine experiments, statistics, and indices to account for these confounding mechanisms. Key concepts in ecology and evolution, such as niche breadth (NB) or fitness, can be represented by several indices, which often provide uncorrelated estimates. Is this because the indices use different types of noisy data or because the targeted phenomenon is complex and multidimensional? We discuss implications of these scenarios and propose five steps to aid researchers in identifying and combining indices, experiments, and statistics. Building on prior efforts to construct databases of hypotheses and indices and document assumptions, these steps help provide a formal strategy to reduce self-confirmatory bias.

Is thermal sensitivity affected by predation risk? A case study in tadpoles from ephemeral environments

Changes in environmental temperature may induce variations in thermal tolerance and sensitivity in ectotherm organisms. These variations generate plastic responses that can be analyzed by examining their Thermal Performance Curves (TPCs). Additionally, some performance traits, like locomotion, could be affected by other factors such as biological interactions (e.g., predator-prey interaction). Here, we evaluate if the risk of predation modifies TPCs in Mendoza four-eyed frog (Pleurodema nebulosum, Burmeister, 1861) and Guayapa's four-eyed frog (Pleurodema guayapae, Barrio, 1964), two amphibian species that occur in ephemeral ponds in arid environments. We measured thermal tolerances and maximum swimming velocity at six different temperatures in tadpoles under three situations: control, exposure to predator chemical cues, and exposure to conspecific alarm cues. TPCs were fitted using General Additive Mixed Models. We found that curves of tadpoles at risk of predation differed from those of control mainly in thermal sensitivity parameters. Our work confirms the importance of biotic interactions have in thermal physiology.

The Contribution of Mutation to Variation in Temperature-Dependent Sprint Speed in Zebrafish, Danio rerio

AbstractThe contribution of new mutations to phenotypic variation and the consequences of this variation for individual fitness are fundamental concepts for understanding genetic variation and adaptation. Here, we investigated how mutation influenced variation in a complex trait in zebrafish, Danio rerio. Typical of many ecologically relevant traits in ectotherms, swimming speed in fish is temperature dependent, with evidence of adaptive evolution of thermal performance. We chemically induced novel germline point mutations in males and measured sprint speed in their sons at six temperatures (between 16°C and 34°C). Heterozygous mutational effects on speed were strongly positively correlated among temperatures, resulting in statistical support for only a single axis of mutational variation, reflecting temperature-independent variation in speed (faster-slower mode). These results suggest pleiotropic effects on speed across different temperatures; however, spurious correlations arise via linkage or heterogeneity in mutation number when mutations have consistent directional effects on each trait. Here, mutation did not change mean speed, indicating no directional bias in mutational effects. The results contribute to emerging evidence that mutations may predominantly have synergistic cross-environment effects, in contrast to conditionally neutral or antagonistic effects that underpin thermal adaptation. We discuss several aspects of experimental design that may affect resolution of mutations with nonsynergistic effects.

Weak sex-specific evolution of locomotor activity of Sepsis punctum (Diptera: Sepsidae) thermal experimental evolution lines

Elevated temperatures are expected to rise beyond what the physiology of many organisms can tolerate. Behavioural responses facilitating microhabitat shifts may mitigate some of this increased thermal selection on physiology, but behaviours are themselves mediated by physiology, and any behavioural response may trade-off against other fitness-related activities. We investigated whether experimental evolution in different thermal regimes (Cold: 15 °C; Hot: 31 °C; Intergenerational fluctuation 15/31 °C; Control: 23 °C) resulted in genetic differentiation of standard locomotor activity in the dung fly Sepsis punctum. We assessed individual locomotor performance, an integral part of most behavioral repertoires, across eight warm temperatures from 24 °C to 45 °C using an automated device. We found no evidence for generalist-specialist trade-offs (i.e. changes in the breadth of the performance curve) for this trait. Instead, at the warmest assay temperatures hot-selected flies showed somewhat higher maximal performance than all other, especially cold-selected flies, overall more so in males than females. Yet, the flies' temperature optimum was not higher than that of the cold-selected flies, as expected under the 'hotter-is-better' hypothesis. Maximal locomotor performance merely weakly increased with body size. These results suggest that thermal performance curves are unlikely to evolve as an entity according to theory, and that locomotor activity is a trait of limited use in revealing thermal adaptation.

Keep your cool: Overwintering physiology in response to urbanization in the acorn ant, Temnothorax curvispinosus

Winter presents a challenge for survival, yet temperate ectotherms have remarkable physiological adaptations to cope with low-temperature conditions. Under recent climate change, rather than strictly relaxing pressure on overwintering survival, warmer winters can instead disrupt these low-temperature trait-environment associations, with negative consequences for populations. While there is increasing evidence of physiological adaptation to contemporary warming during the growing season, the effects of winter warming on physiological traits are less clear. To address this knowledge gap, we performed a common garden experiment using relatively warm-adapted versus cold-adapted populations of the acorn ant, Temnothorax curvispinosus, sampled across an urban heat island gradient, to explore the effects of winter conditions on plasticity and evolution of physiological traits. We found no evidence of evolutionary divergence in chill coma recovery nor in metabolic rate at either of two test temperatures (4 and 10 °C). Although we found the expected plastic response of increased metabolic rate under the 10 °C acute test temperature as compared with the 4 °C test temperature, this plastic response, (i.e., the acute thermal sensitivity of metabolic rate), was not different across populations. Surprisingly, we found that winter-acclimated urban ant populations exhibited higher heat tolerance compared with rural ant populations, and that the magnitude of divergence was comparable to that observed among growing-season acclimated ants. Finally, we found no evidence of differences between populations with respect to changes in colony size from the beginning to the end of the overwintering experiment. Together, these findings indicate that despite the evolution of higher heat tolerance that is often accompanied by losses in low-temperature tolerance, urban acorn ants have retained several components of low-temperature physiological performance when assessed under ecologically relevant overwintering conditions. Our study suggests the importance of measuring physiological traits under seasonally-relevant conditions to understand the causes and consequences of evolutionary responses to contemporary warming.

Temperature adaptation and its impact on the shape of performance curves in Drosophila populations

Understanding how species adapt to different temperatures is crucial to predict their response to global warming, and thermal performance curves (TPCs) have been employed recurrently to study this topic. Nevertheless, fundamental questions regarding how thermodynamic constraints and evolution interact to shape TPCs in lineages inhabiting different environments remain unanswered. Here, we study Drosophila simulans along a latitudinal gradient spanning 3000 km to test opposing hypotheses based on thermodynamic constrains (hotter-is-better) versus biochemical adaptation (jack-of-all-temperatures) as primary determinants of TPCs variation across populations. We compare thermal responses in metabolic rate and the egg-to-adult survival as descriptors of organismal performance and fitness, respectively, and show that different descriptors of TPCs vary in tandem with mean environmental temperatures, providing strong support to hotter-is-better. Thermodynamic constraints also resulted in a strong negative association between maximum performance and thermal breadth. Lastly, we show that descriptors of TPCs for metabolism and egg-to-adult survival are highly correlated, providing evidence of co-adaptation, and that curves for egg-to-adult survival are systematically narrower and displaced toward lower temperatures. Taken together, our results support the pervasive role of thermodynamics constraining thermal responses in Drosophila populations along a latitudinal gradient, that are only partly compensated by evolutionary adaptation.

Evolutionary constraints mediate extinction risk under climate change

Mounting evidence suggests that rapid evolutionary adaptation may rescue some organisms from the impacts of climate change. However, evolutionary constraints might hinder this process, especially when different aspects of environmental change generate antagonistic selection on genetically correlated traits. Here, we use individual-based simulations to explore how genetic correlations underlying the thermal physiology of ectotherms might influence their responses to the two major components of climate change-increases in mean temperature and thermal variability. We found that genetic correlations can influence population dynamics under climate change, with declines in population size varying three-fold depending on the type of correlation present. Surprisingly, populations whose thermal performance curves were constrained by genetic correlations often declined less rapidly than unconstrained populations. Our results suggest that accurate forecasts of the impact of climate change on ectotherms will require an understanding of the genetic architecture of the traits under selection.

Highly conserved thermal performance strategies may limit adaptive potential in corals

Increasing seawater temperatures are expected to have profound consequences for reef-building corals' physiology. Understanding how demography changes in response to chronic exposure to warming will help forecast how coral communities will respond to climate change. Here, we measure growth rates of coral fragments of four common species, while exposing them to temperatures ranging from 19°C to 31°C for one month to calibrate their thermal-performance curves (TPCs). Our results show that, while there are contrasting differences between species, the shape of the TPCs was remarkably consistent among individuals of the same species. The low variation in thermal sensitivity within species may imply a reduced capacity for rapid adaptive responses to future changes in thermal regimes. Additionally, interspecific differences in thermal responses show a negative relationship between maximum growth and thermal optima, contradicting expectations derived from the classic 'warmer-is-better' hypothesis. Among species, there was a trade-off between current and future growth, whereby most species perform well under current thermal regimes but are susceptible to future increases in temperature. Increases in water temperature with climate change are likely to reduce growth rates, further hampering future coral reef recovery rates and potentially altering community composition.

Quantifying population and clone-specific non-linear reaction norms to food gradients in Daphnia magna

Phenotypic plasticity is normally quantified as a reaction norm which details how trait expression changes across an environmental gradient. Sometime reaction norms are linear, but often reaction norms are assumed to be linear because plasticity is typically quantified as the difference in trait expression measured in two environments. This simplification limits how plastic responses vary between genotypes and may also bias the predictions of models investigating how plasticity influences a population’s ability to adapt to a changing environment. Consequently, there is a pressing need to characterize the real shape of reaction norms and their genetic variability across ecologically relevant environmental gradients. To address this knowledge gap we measured the multi-trait plastic response of 7 Daphnia magna clones from the same population across a broad resource gradient. We used a Random Regression Mixed Model approach to characterize and quantify average and clone-specific responses to resource variation. Our results demonstrate that non-linear models outperformed a linear model for all 4 of the life-history traits we measured. The plastic reaction norms of all 4 traits were similar in shape and were often best described by a non-linear asymptotic model. Clonal variation in non-linear plastic responses was detectable for 3 out of the 4 traits that we measured although the nature and magnitude of variation across the resource gradient was trait-specific. We interpret our findings with respect to the impact that plasticity has on the evolutionary potential of a population in different resource environments.

Characterization, costs, cues and future perspectives of phenotypic plasticity

BACKGROUND

Plastic responses of plants to the environment are ubiquitous. Phenotypic plasticity occurs in many forms and at many biological scales, and its adaptive value depends on the specific environment and interactions with other plant traits and organisms. Even though plasticity is the norm rather than the exception, its complex nature has been a challenge in characterizing the expression of plasticity, its adaptive value for fitness and the environmental cues that regulate its expression.

SCOPE

This review discusses the characterization and costs of plasticity and approaches, considerations, and promising research directions in studying plasticity. Phenotypic plasticity is genetically controlled and heritable; however, little is known about how organisms perceive, interpret and respond to environmental cues, and the genes and pathways associated with plasticity. Not every genotype is plastic for every trait, and plasticity is not infinite, suggesting trade-offs, costs and limits to expression of plasticity. The timing, specificity and duration of plasticity are critical to their adaptive value for plant fitness.

CONCLUSIONS

There are many research opportunities to advance our understanding of plant phenotypic plasticity. New methodology and technological breakthroughs enable the study of phenotypic responses across biological scales and in multiple environments. Understanding the mechanisms of plasticity and how the expression of specific phenotypes influences fitness in many environmental ranges would benefit many areas of plant science ranging from basic research to applied breeding for crop improvement.

Different traits at different rates: The effects of dynamic strain rate on structural traits in biology

Phenotypic diversity is influenced by physical laws that govern how an organism's morphology relates to functional performance. To study comparative organismal biology, we need to quantify this diversity using biological traits (definable aspects of the morphology, behavior, and/or life history of an organism). Traits are often assumed to be immutable properties that need only be measured a single time in each adult. However, organisms often experience changes in their biotic and abiotic environments that can alter trait function. In particular, structural traits represent the physical capabilities of an organism and may be heavily influenced by the rate at which they are exposed to physical demands ('loads'). For instance, materials tend to become more brittle when loaded at faster rates which could negatively affect structures trying to resist those loads (e.g., brittle materials are more likely to fracture). In the following perspective piece, we address the dynamic properties of structural traits and present case studies that demonstrate how dynamic strain rates affect the function of these traits in diverse groups of organisms. First, we review how strain rate affects deformation and fracture in biomaterials and demonstrate how these effects alter puncture mechanics in systems such as snake strikes. Second, we discuss how different rates of bone loading affect the locomotor biomechanics of vertebrates and their ecology. Through these examinations of diverse taxa and ecological functions, we aim to highlight how rate-dependent properties of structural traits can generate dynamic form-function relationships in response to changing environmental conditions. Findings from these studies serve as a foundation to develop more nuanced ecomechanical models that can predict how complex traits emerge and, thereby, advance progress on outlining the Rules of Life.

Evolutionary trade-offs between heat and cold tolerance limit responses to fluctuating climates

The evolutionary potential of species to cope with short-term temperature fluctuations during reproduction is critical to predicting responses to future climate change. Despite this, vertebrate research has focused on reproduction under high or low temperatures in relatively stable temperate climates. Here, we characterize the genetic basis of reproductive thermal tolerance to temperature fluctuations in the ostrich, which lives in variable environments in tropical and subtropical Africa. Both heat and cold tolerance were under selection and heritable, indicating the potential for evolutionary responses to mean temperature change. However, we found evidence for a negative, genetic correlation between heat and cold tolerance that should limit the potential for adaptation to fluctuating temperatures. Genetic constraints between heat and cold tolerance appear a crucial, yet underappreciated, factor influencing responses to climate change.

Patterns of thermal adaptation in a globally distributed plant pathogen: Local diversity and plasticity reveal two-tier dynamics

Plant pathogen populations inhabit patchy environments with contrasting, variable thermal conditions. We investigated the diversity of thermal responses in populations sampled over contrasting spatiotemporal scales, to improve our understanding of their dynamics of adaptation to local conditions. Samples of natural populations of the wheat pathogen Zymoseptoria tritici were collected from sites within the Euro-Mediterranean region subject to a broad range of climatic conditions. We tested for local adaptation, by accounting for the diversity of responses at the individual and population levels on the basis of key thermal performance curve parameters and "thermotype" (groups of individuals with similar thermal responses) composition. The characterization of phenotypic responses and genotypic structure revealed the following: (i) a high degree of individual plasticity and variation in sensitivity to temperature conditions across spatiotemporal scales and populations; and (ii) geographic variation in thermal response among populations, with major alterations due to seasonal patterns over the wheat-growing season. The seasonal shifts in functional composition suggest that populations are locally structured by selection, contributing to adaptation patterns. Further studies combining selection experiments and modeling are required to determine how functional group selection drives population dynamics and adaptive potential in response to thermal heterogeneity.

Thermal Performance Curves Are Shaped by Prior Thermal Environment in Early Life

Understanding links between thermal performance and environmental variation is necessary to predict organismal responses to climate change, and remains an ongoing challenge for ectotherms with complex life cycles. Distinct life stages can differ in thermal sensitivity, experience different environmental conditions as development unfolds, and, because stages are by nature interdependent, environmental effects can carry over from one stage to affect performance at others. Thermal performance may therefore respond to carryover effects of prior thermal environments, yet detailed insights into the nature, strength, and direction of those responses are still lacking. Here, in an aquatic ectotherm whose early planktonic stages (gametes, embryos, and larvae) govern adult abundances and dynamics, we explore the effects of prior thermal environments at fertilization and embryogenesis on thermal performance curves at the end of planktonic development. We factorially manipulate temperatures at fertilization and embryogenesis, then, for each combination of prior temperatures, measure thermal performance curves for survival of planktonic development (end of the larval stage) throughout the performance range. By combining generalized linear mixed modeling with parametric bootstrapping, we formally estimate and compare curve descriptors (thermal optima, limits, and breadth) among prior environments, and reveal carryover effects of temperature at embryogenesis, but not fertilization, on thermal optima at completion of development. Specifically, thermal optima shifted to track temperature during embryogenesis, while thermal limits and breadth remained unchanged. Our results argue that key aspects of thermal performance are shaped by prior thermal environment in early life, warranting further investigation of the possible mechanisms underpinning that response, and closer consideration of thermal carryover effects when predicting organismal responses to climate change.

Intra-specific variation of thermal performance, skin reflectance and body size partially co-vary with climate in a lizard

Thermal adaptation theory posits that variation of thermal traits such as those affecting thermal budgets and the performance of ectotherms should be associated with climate gradients. Under a simple scenario, thermal traits should also co-vary to shape optimal thermal phenotypes under a particular climate. However, geographical variation and covariation of thermal traits can result from other sources of selection and a wide range of other mechanisms. Here, we explore variation and covariation of skin reflectance (melanization), body size and thermal performance traits among three populations of the lizard Cordylus cordylus, a species endemic to South Africa. We also examine relationships between skin reflectance and substrate reflectance, body size and crevice size to test alternative hypotheses. We found partial support for predictions of thermal adaptation to climate regimes for body size, melanization and chill-coma recovery time. Darker lizards also performed optimally at higher temperatures than lighter coloured lizards but there was limited individual covariation between morphological and performance traits. Despite partial support for thermal adaptation, the complex interactions between sex and body size and between substrate reflectance and size underlying skin reflectance emphasized the importance of testing multiple hypotheses when exploring drivers of thermal trait variation within species.

Temperature impacts all behavioral interactions during insect and arachnid reproduction

Temperature shapes the processes and outcomes of behaviors that occur throughout the progression of insect and arachnid mating interactions and reproduction. Here, we highlight how temperature impacts precopulatory activity levels, competition among rivals, communication with potential mates, and the relative costs and benefits of mating. We review how both the prevailing temperature conditions during reproductive activity and the temperatures experienced early in life influence mating-related behavior. To effectively predict the consequences of global warming for insect and arachnid mating behavior, we advocate for future work that universally integrates a function-valued approach to measuring thermal sensitivity. A function-valued approach will be especially useful for understanding how fine-scale temperature variation shapes current and future selection on mating interactions.

Pedal to the metal: Cities power evolutionary divergence by accelerating metabolic rate and locomotor performance

Metabolic rates of ectotherms are expected to increase with global trends of climatic warming. But the potential for rapid, compensatory evolution of lower metabolic rate in response to rising temperatures is only starting to be explored. Here, we explored rapid evolution of metabolic rate and locomotor performance in acorn-dwelling ants (Temnothorax curvispinosus) in response to urban heat island effects. We reared ant colonies within a laboratory common garden (25°C) to generate a laboratory-born cohort of workers and tested their acute plastic responses to temperature. Contrary to expectations, urban ants exhibited a higher metabolic rate compared with rural ants when tested at 25°C, suggesting a potentially maladaptive evolutionary response to urbanization. Urban and rural ants had similar metabolic rates when tested at 38°C, as a consequence of a diminished plastic response of the urban ants. Locomotor performance also evolved such that the running speed of urban ants was faster than rural ants under warmer test temperatures (32°C and 42°C) but slower under a cooler test temperature (22°C). The resulting specialist-generalist trade-off and higher thermal optimum for locomotor performance might compensate for evolved increases in metabolic rate by allowing workers to more quickly scout and retrieve resources.

Thermal effects vary predictably across levels of organization: empirical results and theoretical basis

Thermal performance curves have provided a common framework to study the impact of temperature in biological systems. However, few generalities have emerged to date. Here, we combine an experimental approach with theoretical analyses to demonstrate that performance curves are expected to vary predictably with the levels of biological organization. We measured rates of enzymatic reactions, organismal performance and population viability in Drosophila acclimated to different thermal conditions and show that performance curves become narrower with thermal optima shifting towards lower temperatures at higher levels or organization. We then explain these results on theoretical grounds, showing that this pattern reflects the cumulative impact of asymmetric thermal effects that piles up with complexity. These results and the proposed framework are important to understand how organisms, populations and ecological communities might respond to changing thermal conditions.

Genetic Constraints, Transcriptome Plasticity, and the Evolutionary Response to Climate Change

In situ adaptation to climate change will be critical for the persistence of many ectotherm species due to their relative lack of dispersal capacity. Climate change is causing increases in both the mean and the variance of environmental temperature, each of which may act as agents of selection on different traits. Importantly, these traits may not be heritable or have the capacity to evolve independently from one another. When genetic constraints prevent the "baseline" values of thermal performance traits from evolving rapidly, phenotypic plasticity driven by gene expression might become critical. We review the literature for evidence that thermal performance traits in ectotherms are heritable and have genetic architectures that permit their unconstrained evolution. Next, we examine the relationship between gene expression and both the magnitude and duration of thermal stress. Finally, we identify genes that are likely to be important for adaptation to a changing climate and determine whether they show patterns consistent with thermal adaptation. Although few studies have measured narrow-sense heritabilities of thermal performance traits, current evidence suggests that the end points of thermal reaction norms (tolerance limits) are moderately heritable and have the potential to evolve rapidly. By contrast, performance at intermediate temperatures has substantially lower evolutionary potential. Moreover, evolution in many species appears to be constrained by genetic correlations such that populations can adapt to either increases in mean temperature or temperature variability, but not both. Finally, many species have the capacity for plastic expression of the transcriptome in response to temperature shifts, with the number of differentially expressed genes increasing with the magnitude, but not the duration, of thermal stress. We use these observations to develop a conceptual model that describes the likely trajectory of genome evolution in response to changes in environmental temperature. Our results indicate that extreme weather events, rather than gradual increases in mean temperature, are more likely to drive genetic and phenotypic change in wild ectotherms.

Running performance with emphasis on low temperatures in a Patagonian lizard, Liolaemus lineomaculatus

Lizard activity and endurance of cold climate is regulated by several factors such as evolutionary potential, acclimatization capacity, physiological tolerance, and locomotion among thermally advantageous microenvironments. Liolaemus lineomaculatus, a lizard inhabiting a wide range of cold environments in Patagonia, provides an excellent model to test interpopulation variability in thermal performance curves (TPCs) and usage of microhabitats. We obtained critical thermal minima and maxima, and performed running trials at eight temperatures using lizards from both a temperate-site (high-altitude) population at 42° S and a cold-site population at 50° S. The availability of environmental temperatures for running performance in open ground and in potential lizard refuges were recorded, and showed that lizards in the temperate site had a greater availability of thermal environments offering temperatures conducive to locomotion. Generalized additive mixed models showed that the two populations displayed TPCs of different shapes in 0.15 m runs at temperatures near their optimal temperature, indicating a difference in thermal sensitivity at high temperatures. However, the rest of the locomotor parameters remained similar between Liolaemus lineomaculatus from thermal and ecological extremes of their geographic distribution and this may partly explain their ability to endure a cold climate.

Environmental stability impacts the differential sensitivity of marine microbiomes to increases in temperature and acidity

Ambient conditions shape microbiome responses to both short- and long-duration environment changes through processes including physiological acclimation, compositional shifts, and evolution. Thus, we predict that microbial communities inhabiting locations with larger diel, episodic, and annual variability in temperature and pH should be less sensitive to shifts in these climate-change factors. To test this hypothesis, we compared responses of surface ocean microbes from more variable (nearshore) and more constant (offshore) sites to short-term factorial warming (+3 °C) and/or acidification (pH -0.3). In all cases, warming alone significantly altered microbial community composition, while acidification had a minor influence. Compared with nearshore microbes, warmed offshore microbiomes exhibited larger changes in community composition, phylotype abundances, respiration rates, and metatranscriptomes, suggesting increased sensitivity of microbes from the less-variable environment. Moreover, while warming increased respiration rates, offshore metatranscriptomes yielded evidence of thermal stress responses in protein synthesis, heat shock proteins, and regulation. Future oceans with warmer waters may enhance overall metabolic and biogeochemical rates, but they will host altered microbial communities, especially in relatively thermally stable regions of the oceans.

Quantitative genetics of temperature performance curves of Neurospora crassa

Earth's temperature is increasing due to anthropogenic CO 2 emissions; and organisms need either to adapt to higher temperatures, migrate into colder areas, or face extinction. Temperature affects nearly all aspects of an organism's physiology via its influence on metabolic rate and protein structure, therefore genetic adaptation to increased temperature may be much harder to achieve compared to other abiotic stresses. There is still much to be learned about the evolutionary potential for adaptation to higher temperatures, therefore we studied the quantitative genetics of growth rates in different temperatures that make up the thermal performance curve of the fungal model system Neurospora crassa. We studied the amount of genetic variation for thermal performance curves and examined possible genetic constraints by estimating the G-matrix. We observed a substantial amount of genetic variation for growth in different temperatures, and most genetic variation was for performance curve elevation. Contrary to common theoretical assumptions, we did not find strong evidence for genetic trade-offs for growth between hotter and colder temperatures. We also simulated short-term evolution of thermal performance curves of N. crassa, and suggest that they can have versatile responses to selection.

Experimental evolution of phytoplankton fatty acid thermal reaction norms

Temperature effects on the fatty acid (FA) profiles of phytoplankton, major primary producers in the ocean, have been widely studied due to their importance as industrial feedstocks and to their indispensable role as global producers of long-chain, polyunsaturated FA (PUFA), including omega-3 (ω3) FA required by organisms at higher trophic levels. The latter is of global ecological concern for marine food webs, as some evidence suggests an ongoing decline in global marine-derived ω3 FA due to both a global decline in phytoplankton abundance and to a physiological reduction in ω3 production by phytoplankton as temperatures rise. Here, we examined both short-term (physiological) and long-term (evolutionary) responses of FA profiles to temperature by comparing FA thermal reaction norms of the marine diatom Thalassiosira pseudonana after ~500 generations (ca. 2.5 years) of experimental evolution at low (16°C) and high (31°C) temperatures. We showed that thermal reaction norms for some key FA classes evolved rapidly in response to temperature selection, often in ways contrary to our predictions based on prior research. Notably, 31°C-selected populations showed higher PUFA percentages (including ω3 FA) than 16°C-selected populations at the highest assay temperature (31°C, above T. pseudonana's optimum temperature for population growth), suggesting that high-temperature selection led to an evolved ability to sustain high PUFA production at high temperatures. Rapid evolution may therefore mitigate some of the decline in global phytoplankton-derived ω3 FA production predicted by recent studies. Beyond its implications for marine food webs, knowledge of the effects of temperature on fatty acid profiles is of fundamental importance to our understanding of the mechanistic causes and consequences of thermal adaptation.

A function-valued trait approach to estimating the genetic basis of size at age and its potential role in fisheries-induced evolution

Natural selection is inherently a multivariate phenomenon. The selection pressure on size (natural and artificial) and the age at which selection occurs is likely to induce evolutionary changes in growth rates across the entire life history. However, the covariance structure that will determine the path of evolution for size at age has been studied in only a few fish species. We therefore estimated the genetic covariance function for size throughout ontogeny using Atlantic silversides (Menidia menidia) as the model system. Over a 3-year period, a total of 542 families were used to estimate the genetic covariance in length at age from hatch through maturity. The function-valued trait approach was employed to estimate the genetic covariance functions. A Bayesian hierarchical model was used to account for the unbalanced design, unequal measurement intervals, unequal sample sizes, and family-aggregated data. To improve mixing, we developed a two-stage sampler using a Gibbs sampler to generate the posterior of a well-mixing approximate model followed by an importance sampler to draw samples from posterior of the completely specified model. We found that heritability of length is age-specific and there are strong genetic correlations in length across ages that last 30 days or more. We used these estimates in a hypothetical model predicting the evolutionary response to harvesting following a single generation of selection under both sigmoidal and unimodal patterns of gear selectivity to illustrate the potential outcomes of ignoring the genetic correlations. In these scenarios, genetic correlations were found to have a strong effect on both the direction and magnitude of the response to harvest selection.

How to analyse plant phenotypic plasticity in response to a changing climate

Contents Summary 1235 I. Introduction 1235 II. The many shapes of phenotypic plasticity 1236 III. Random regression mixed model framework 1237 IV. Conclusions 1240 Acknowledgements 1240 References 1240 SUMMARY: Plant biology is experiencing a renewed interest in the mechanistic underpinnings and evolution of phenotypic plasticity that calls for a re-evaluation of how we analyse phenotypic responses to a rapidly changing climate. We suggest that dissecting plant plasticity in response to increasing temperature needs an approach that can represent plasticity over multiple environments, and considers both population-level responses and the variation between genotypes in their response. Here, we outline how a random regression mixed model framework can be applied to plastic traits that show linear or nonlinear responses to temperature. Random regressions provide a powerful and efficient means of characterising plasticity and its variation. Although they have been used widely in other fields, they have only recently been implemented in plant evolutionary ecology. We outline their structure and provide an example tutorial of their implementation.

Comparing thermal performance curves across traits: how consistent are they?

Thermal performance curves (TPCs) are intended to approximate the relationship between temperature and fitness, and are commonly integrated into species distributional models for understanding climate change responses. However, TPCs may vary across traits because selection and environmental sensitivity (plasticity) differ across traits or because the timing and duration of the temperature exposure, here termed time-scale, may alter trait variation. Yet the extent to which TPCs vary temporally and across traits is rarely considered in assessments of climate change responses. Using a common garden approach, we estimate TPCs for standard metabolic rate (SMR), and activity in Drosophila melanogaster at three test temperatures (16, 25 and 30 °C), using flies from each of six developmental temperatures (16, 18, 20, 25, 28 and 30 °C). We examined the effects of time-scale of temperature exposure (mins/hours vs days/weeks) in altering the TPC shape, position and commonly used descriptors of the TPC- thermal optimum (TOPT), thermal limits (TMIN and TMAX) and thermal breadth (TBR). In addition we collated previously published estimates of TPCs for fecundity and egg-to-adult viability in D. melanogaster. We found that the descriptors of the TPCs varied across traits (egg-to-adult viability, SMR, activity and fecundity), but variation in TPCs within these traits was small across studies when measured at the same time-scales. The time-scale at which traits were measured contributed to greater variation in TPCs than the observed variance across traits, although the relative importance of time-scale differed depending on the trait (activity vs fecundity). Variation in the TPC across traits and time-scales suggests that TPCs using single traits may not be an accurate predictor of fitness and thermal adaptation across environments.

Variation and Evolution of Function-Valued Traits

Function-valued traits—phenotypes whose expression depends on a continuous index (such as age, temperature, or space)—occur throughout biology and, like any trait, it is important to understand how they vary and evolve. Although methods for analyzing variation and evolution of function-valued traits are well developed, they have been underutilized by evolutionists, especially those who study natural populations. We seek to summarize advances in the study of function-valued traits and to make their analyses more approachable and accessible to biologists who could benefit greatly from their use. To that end, we explain how curve thinking benefits conceptual understanding and statistical analysis of functional data. We provide a detailed guide to the most flexible and statistically powerful methods and include worked examples (with R code) as supplemental material. We review ways to characterize variation in function-valued traits and analyze consequences for evolution, including constraint. We also discuss how selection on function-valued traits can be estimated and combined with estimates of heritable variation to project evolutionary dynamics.

Broad thermal tolerance is negatively correlated with virulence in an opportunistic bacterial pathogen

Predicting the effects of global increase in temperatures on disease virulence is challenging, especially for environmental opportunistic bacteria, because pathogen fitness may be differentially affected by temperature within and outside host environment. So far, there is very little empirical evidence on the connections between optimal temperature range and virulence in environmentally growing pathogens. Here, we explored whether the virulence of an environmentally growing opportunistic fish pathogen, Flavobacterium columnare, is malleable to evolutionary changes via correlated selection on thermal tolerance. To this end, we experimentally quantified the thermal performance curves (TPCs) for maximum biomass yield of 49 F. columnare isolates from eight different geographic locations in Finland over ten years (2003-2012). We also characterized virulence profiles of these strains in a zebra fish (Danio rerio) infection model. We show that virulence among the strains increased over the years, but thermal generalism, and in particular tolerance to higher temperatures, was negatively associated with virulence. Our data suggest that temperature has a strong effect on the pathogen genetic diversity and therefore presumably also on disease dynamics. However, the observed increase in frequency and severity of F. columnare epidemics over the last decade cannot be directly linked to bacterial evolution due to increased mean temperature, but is most likely associated with factors related to increased length of growing season, or other time-dependent change in environment. Our study demonstrates that complex interactions between the host, the pathogen and the environment influence disease virulence of an environmentally growing opportunistic pathogen.

Rapid thermal adaptation in a marine diatom reveals constraints and trade-offs

Rapid evolution in response to environmental change will likely be a driving force determining the distribution of species across the biosphere in coming decades. This is especially true of microorganisms, many of which may evolve in step with warming, including phytoplankton, the diverse photosynthetic microbes forming the foundation of most aquatic food webs. Here we tested the capacity of a globally important, model marine diatom Thalassiosira pseudonana, for rapid evolution in response to temperature. Selection at 16 and 31°C for 350 generations led to significant divergence in several temperature response traits, demonstrating local adaptation and the existence of trade-offs associated with adaptation to different temperatures. In contrast, competitive ability for nitrogen (commonly limiting in marine systems), measured after 450 generations of temperature selection, did not diverge in a systematic way between temperatures. This study shows how rapid thermal adaptation affects key temperature and nutrient traits and, thus, a population's long-term physiological, ecological, and biogeographic response to climate change.

Conserved thermal performance curves across the geographic range of a gametophytic fern

Species-level responses to environmental change depend on the collective responses of their constituent populations and the degree to which populations are specialized to local conditions. Manipulative experiments in common-garden settings make it possible to test for population variation in species' responses to specific climate variables, including those projected to shift as the climate changes in the future. While this approach is being applied to a variety of plant taxa to evaluate their responses to climate change, these studies are heavily biased towards seed-bearing plant species. Given several unique morphological and physiological traits, fern species may exhibit very different responses from angiosperms and gymnosperms. Here, we tested the hypothesis that previously detected population differentiation in a fern species is due to differentiation in thermal performance curves among populations. We collected explants from six populations spanning the species' geographic range and exposed them to 10 temperature treatments. Explant survival, lifespan and the change in photosynthetic area were analysed as a function of temperature, source population and their interaction. Overall results indicated that explants performed better at the lowest temperature examined, and the threshold for explant performance reflects maximum temperatures likely to be experienced in the field. Surprisingly, explant fitness did not differ among source populations, suggesting that temperature is not the driver behind previously detected patterns of population differentiation. These results highlight the importance of other environmental axes in driving population differentiation across a species range, and suggest that the perennial life history strategy, asexual mating system and limited dispersal potential of Vittaria appalachiana may restrict the rise and differentiation of adaptive genetic variation in thermal performance traits among populations.

An empirical test for a zone of canalization in thermal reaction norms

Theoretical models on the evolution of phenotypic plasticity predict a zone of canalization where reaction norms cross, and genetic variation is minimized in the environment a population most frequently encounter. Empirical tests of this prediction are largely missing, in particular for life-history traits. We addressed this prediction by quantifying thermal reaction norms of three life-history traits (somatic growth rate, age and size at maturation) of a Norwegian population of Daphnia magna and testing for the occurrence of an intermediate temperature (T_m ) at which genetic variance in the traits is minimized. Size at maturation changed relatively little with temperature compared to the other traits, and there was no genetic variance in the shape of the reaction norm. Consequently, age at maturation and somatic growth rate were strongly negatively correlated. Both traits showed a strong genotype-environment interaction, and the estimated T_m was 14 °C for both age at maturation and growth rate. This value of T_m corresponds well with mean summer temperatures experienced by the population and suggests that the population has evolved under stabilizing selection in temperatures that fluctuate around this mean temperature. These results suggest local adaptation to temperature in the studied population and allow predicting evolutionary trajectories of thermal reaction norms under changing thermal regimes.

Microgeographic differentiation in thermal performance curves between rural and urban populations of an aquatic insect

The rapidly increasing rate of urbanization has a major impact on the ecology and evolution of species. While increased temperatures are a key aspect of urbanization ("urban heat islands"), we have very limited knowledge whether this generates differentiation in thermal responses between rural and urban populations. In a common garden experiment, we compared the thermal performance curves (TPCs) for growth rate and mortality in larvae of the damselfly Coenagrion puella from three urban and three rural populations. TPCs for growth rate shifted vertically, consistent with the faster-slower theoretical model whereby the cold-adapted rural larvae grew faster than the warm-adapted urban larvae across temperatures. In line with costs of rapid growth, rural larvae showed lower survival than urban larvae across temperatures. The relatively lower temperatures hence expected shorter growing seasons in rural populations compared to the populations in the urban heat islands likely impose stronger time constraints to reach a certain developmental stage before winter, thereby selecting for faster growth rates. In addition, higher predation rates at higher temperature may have contributed to the growth rate differences between urban and rural ponds. A faster-slower differentiation in TPCs may be a widespread pattern along the urbanization gradient. The observed microgeographic differentiation in TPCs supports the view that urbanization may drive life-history evolution. Moreover, because of the urban heat island effect, urban environments have the potential to aid in developing predictions on the impact of climate change on rural populations.

Thermal performance curves under daily thermal fluctuation: A study in helmeted water toad tadpoles

Most research in physiological ecology has focused on the effects of mean changes in temperature under the classic "hot vs cold" acclimation treatment; however, current evidence suggests that an increment in both the mean and variance of temperature could act synergistically to amplify the negative effects of global temperature increase and how it would affect fitness and performance-related traits in ectothermic organisms. We assessed the effects of acclimation to daily variance of temperature on thermal performance curves of swimming speed in helmeted water toad tadpoles (Calyptocephalella gayi). Acclimation treatments were 20°C ± 0.1 SD (constant) and 20°C ± 1.5 SD (fluctuating). We draw two key findings: first, tadpoles exposed to daily temperature fluctuation had reduced maximal performance (Z_max), and flattened thermal performance curves, thus supporting the "vertical shift or faster-slower" hypothesis, and suggesting that overall swimming performance would be lower through an examination of temperatures under more realistic and ecologically-relevant fluctuating regimens; second, there was significant interindividual variation in performance traits by means of significant repeatability estimates. Our present results suggest that the widespread use of constant acclimation temperatures in laboratory experiments to estimate thermal performance curves (TPCs) may lead to an overestimation of actual organismal performance. We encourage the use of temperature fluctuation acclimation treatments to better understand the variability of physiological traits, which predict ecological and evolutionary responses to global change.

Thermal Performance Curves Reveal Variation in the Seasonal Niche of a Short-Lived Annual

An organism's environment can vary over spatial and temporal scales. Seasonal variation is an important but overlooked source of environmental variation that often shapes the ranges of organisms. The seasonal niche is a description of the spatiotemporal range of an organism resulting from spatial variation in seasonal conditions. In this study, I describe the seasonal niche of a short-lived annual plant, and variation within the species in seasonal niche breadth. I construct a seasonal species distribution model (SDM) for the species, and using thermal performance curves (TPCs), construct mechanistic SDMs (MSDMs) for individual genotypes. I quantify the correlation between the suitability scores generated in the SDM and the predicted dry weight generated by the MSDMs for each genotype, to estimate variation in seasonal niche breadth among genotypes. Thus, the parameters of TPCs reflect generalist/specialist strategies. I detected significant relationships between thermal performance breadth and maximum predicted fitness and significant correlations between optimal growth temperature and thermal performance breadth. There were large positive correlations between predictions of the SDM and MSDMs based on growth within individual genotypes. The variation in these correlations suggests variation in the degree of specialization. Genotypes with the broadest TPCs had the largest correlations between their MSDMs and the SDM, suggesting that they were generalists. The results show that correlative and MSDMs make similar predictions over the seasonal range, and that ecological specialization can vary dramatically within species.

'Optimal thermal range' in ectotherms: Defining criteria for tests of the temperature-size-rule

Thermal performance curves for population growth rate r (a measure of fitness) were estimated over a wide range of temperature for three species: Coleps hirtus (Protista), Lecane inermis (Rotifera) and Aeolosoma hemprichi (Oligochaeta). We measured individual body size and examined if predictions for the temperature-size rule (TSR) were valid for different temperatures. All three organisms investigated follow the TSR, but only over a specific range between minimal and optimal temperatures, while maintenance at temperatures beyond this range showed the opposite pattern in these taxa. We consider minimal and optimal temperatures to be species-specific, and moreover delineate a physiological range outside of which an ectotherm is constrained against displaying size plasticity in response to temperature. This thermal range concept has important implications for general size-temperature studies. Furthermore, the concept of 'operating thermal conditions' may provide a new approach to (i) defining criteria required for investigating and interpreting temperature effects, and (ii) providing a novel interpretation for many cases in which species do not conform to the TSR.