Detection of infection with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 before seroconversion: correlation with clinical symptoms and outcome

A Randomized Trial of Time-Limited Antiretroviral Therapy in Acute/Early HIV Infection

Background

It has been proposed that initiation of antiretroviral treatment (ART) very soon after establishment of HIV infection may be beneficial by improving host control of HIV replication and delaying disease progression.

Methods

People with documented HIV infection of less than 12 months’ duration in Baltimore MD and seven Canadian sites were randomized to either a) observation and deferred ART, or b) immediate treatment with ART for 12 months. All subjects not receiving ART were followed quarterly and permanent ART was initiated according to contemporaneous treatment guidelines. The endpoint of the trial was total ART-free time from study entry until initiation of permanent ART.

Results

One hundred thirteen people were randomized, 56 to the observation arm and 57 to the immediate treatment arm. Twenty-three had acute (<2 months) infection and 90 early (2–12 months) infection. Of those randomized to the immediate treatment arm, 37 completed 12 months of ART according to protocol, 9 declined to stop ART after 12 months, and 11 were nonadherent to the protocol or lost to follow-up. Comparing those in the observation arm to either those who completed 12 months of ART or all 56 who were randomized to immediate ART, there was no significant difference between the arms in treatment-free interval after study entry, which was about 18 months in both arms.

Conclusions

This study did not find a benefit from administration of a brief, time-limited (12-month) course of ART in acute or early HIV infection.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00106171

Development, calibration and performance of an HIV transmission model incorporating natural history and behavioral patterns: application in South Africa

Understanding HIV transmission dynamics is critical to estimating the potential population-wide impact of HIV prevention and treatment interventions. We developed an individual-based simulation model of the heterosexual HIV epidemic in South Africa and linked it to the previously published Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications (CEPAC) International Model, which simulates the natural history and treatment of HIV. In this new model, the CEPAC Dynamic Model (CDM), the probability of HIV transmission per sexual encounter between short-term, long-term and commercial sex worker partners depends upon the HIV RNA and disease stage of the infected partner, condom use, and the circumcision status of the uninfected male partner. We included behavioral, demographic and biological values in the CDM and calibrated to HIV prevalence in South Africa pre-antiretroviral therapy. Using a multi-step fitting procedure based on Bayesian melding methodology, we performed 264,225 simulations of the HIV epidemic in South Africa and identified 3,750 parameter sets that created an epidemic and had behavioral characteristics representative of a South African population pre-ART. Of these parameter sets, 564 contributed 90% of the likelihood weight to the fit, and closely reproduced the UNAIDS HIV prevalence curve in South Africa from 1990–2002. The calibration was sensitive to changes in the rate of formation of short-duration partnerships and to the partnership acquisition rate among high-risk individuals, both of which impacted concurrency. Runs that closely fit to historical HIV prevalence reflect diverse ranges for individual parameter values and predict a wide range of possible steady-state prevalence in the absence of interventions, illustrating the value of the calibration procedure and utility of the model for evaluating interventions. This model, which includes detailed behavioral patterns and HIV natural history, closely fits HIV prevalence estimates.

T-cell activation and memory phenotypes in cerebrospinal fluid during HIV infection

We characterized T cell phenotypes in 74 paired blood and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples of HIV-infected and uninfected persons using four-color flow cytometry. CD4+ and CD8+ T cells subsets were further characterized by identifying activated/resting and memory/naive subsets in CSF and blood using the markers CD38/HLA-DR and CD45RA/CD62L, respectively. With and without HIV-infection, the proportion of CD4+ T cells and memory T cells among T cells in CSF was higher compared to blood. In HIV-infection, activated CD4+ and CD8+ T cells in CSF were more abundant than in uninfected controls. As expected, combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) reduced T cell activation in CSF and blood.

Maternal and infant factors predicting disease progression in human immunodeficiency virus type 1-infected infants. Women and Infants Transmission Study Group

BACKGROUND

Infants with perinatally acquired human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection have widely variable courses. Previous studies showed that a number of maternal and infant factors, when analyzed separately, are associated with infant HIV-1 disease progression. In this study, clincal, virologic, and immunologic characteristics in the mothers and infants were examined together to determine the predictors of disease progression by 18 months of age and the associations with rapid progression during the first 6 months of life.

METHODS

One hundred twenty-two HIV-1-infected women whose infants were HIV-1 infected were identified from the Women and Infants Transmission Study (WITS) cohort. WITS is a longitudinal natural history study of perinatal HIV-1 infection carried out in 6 sites in the continental United States and in Puerto Rico. The women were enrolled during pregnancy and their infants were enrolled at the time of delivery and followed prospectively by a standardized protocol. Virologic and immunologic studies were performed in laboratories certified by National Institutes of Health-sponsored quality assurance programs. Maternal factors in pregnancy were used as potential predictors of infant disease progression (progression to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [CDC] Clinical Class C disease or death by 18 months of age) or as correlates of progression at <6 months of age. Infant factors defined during the first 6 months of life were used as potential predictors of progression during 6 to 18 months of age and as correlates of progression at <6 months of age.

RESULTS

Progression by 18 months of age occurred in 32% of infants and by 6 months of age in 15%. Maternal characteristics that, by univariate analysis, were significant predictors of infant disease progression by 18 months of age were elevated viral load, depressed CD4(+)%, and depressed vitamin A. CD8(+)%, CD8(+) activation markers, zidovudine (ZDV) use, hard drug use, and gestational age at delivery were not. When examined in a combined multivariate analysis of maternal characteristics, only vitamin A concentration independently predicted infant progression. Infant characteristics during the first 6 months of life that, by univariate analysis, were associated with disease progression included elevated mean viral load at 1 to 6 months of age, depressed CD4(+)%, CDC Clinical Disease Category B, and growth delay. Early HIV-1 culture positivity (<48 hours), CD8(+)%, CD8(+) activation markers, and ZDV use during the first month of life did not predict progression. Multivariate analysis of infant characteristics showed that the only independent predictors were progression to CDC Category B by 6 months of age (odds ratio [OR], 5.80) and mean viral load from 1 to 6 months of age (OR, 1.99). The final combined maternal and infant analysis included the significant maternal and infant characteristics in a multivariate analysis. It showed that factors independently predicting infant progression by 18 months of age were progression to CDC Category B by 6 months of age (OR, 5.80) and elevated mean HIV-1 RNA copy number at 1 to 6 months of age (OR, 1.99). The characteristics associated with rapid progression to CDC Category C disease or death by 6 months of age were also examined. The only maternal characteristic associated with progression by 6 months in multivariate analysis was low maternal CD4(+)%. The infant characteristics associated with progression by 6 months of age in multivariate analysis were depressed mean CD4(+)% from birth through 2 months and the presence of lymphadenopathy, hepatomegaly, or splenomegaly by 3 months. Infant ZDV use was not assocciated with rapid progression.

CONCLUSION

The strongest predictors of progression by 18 months are the presence of moderate clinical symptoms and elevated RNA copy number in the infants in the first 6 months of life. In contrast, progression by 6 months is associated with maternal and infant immun

Adjusting for measurement error to assess health effects of variability in biomarkers. Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study

Longitudinal studies of health effects often relate individuals' biomarker levels to disease progression. Repeated measurements also provide an opportunity to assess within-individual biomarker variability, and it is reasonable to postulate that this measure might provide additional information about a particular outcome variable. Given the existing precedent for application of adjustment methods to account for measurement error in subject-specific average levels of a covariate, this concept motivates the application of such methods to incorporate variability as well. In this paper, we investigate the nature of the relationship between the decline of CD4 cell count induced by infection with human immunodeficiency virus, and CD4 level and variability prior to infection. We first describe the distribution of repeated CD4 measurements prior to infection using a model that accounts both for random average levels and random subject-specific variance components. Based on this model, we define true unobservable random variables that correspond to prior level and stability. We perform a linear regression analysis, using these latent variables as covariates, by means of a full maximum likelihood approach. We compare the resulting parameter estimates with those based on regressions employing sample-based estimates of pre-infection levels and variances, and empirical Bayes estimates of these quantities. Although the final inferences are similar to those based on the unadjusted analysis, we find that the magnitude of association with prior level decreases, while that with prior stability increases. Stratified analyses indicate that smoking status affects the relationship between prior CD4 level and initial CD4 decline. We point out advantages associated with the maximum likelihood approach in this particular application.