Bad neighbors: how spatially disjunct habitat degradation can cause system-wide population collapse

Movement of individuals links the effects of local variation in habitat quality with growth and persistence of populations at the landscape scale. When the populations themselves are linked by interspecific interactions, such as predation, differential movement between habitats may lead to counterintuitive system-wide dynamics. Understanding the interaction between local drivers and dynamics of widely dispersed species is necessary to predict the impacts of habitat fragmentation and degradation, which may be transmitted across habitat boundaries by species' movements. Here we model predator-prey interactions across unaltered and degraded habitat areas, and we explore the additional effects of adaptive habitat choice by predators on the resilience of prey populations. We show how movement between habitats can produce the "bad neighbor effect," in which predators' response to localized habitat degradation causes system-wide loss of prey populations. This effect arises because adaptive foraging results in the concentration of predators in the more productive unaltered habitat, even when this habitat can not support the increased prey mortality. The mechanisms underlying this effect are especially sensitive to prey dispersal rate and adaptive predator behavior.

The effectiveness of marine protected areas for predator and prey with varying mobility

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are regions in the ocean where fishing is restricted or prohibited. Although several measures for MPA performance exist, here we focus on a specific one, namely the ratio of the steady state fish densities inside and outside the MPA. Several 2 patch models are proposed and analyzed mathematically. One patch represents the MPA, whereas the second patch represents the fishing ground. Fish move freely between both regions in a diffusive manner. Our main objective is to understand how fish mobility affects MPA performance. We show that MPA effectiveness decreases with fish mobility for single species models with logistic growth, and that densities inside and outside the MPA tend to equalize. This suggests that MPA performance is highest for the least mobile species. We then consider a 2 patch Lotka-Volterra predator-prey system. When one of the species moves, and the other does not, the ratio of the moving species first remains constant, and ultimately decreases with increased fish mobility, again with a tendency of equalization of the density in both regions. This suggests that MPA performance is not only highest for slow, but also for moderately mobile species. The discrepancy in MPA performance for single species models and for predator-prey models, confirms that MPA design requires an integrated, ecosystem-based approach. The mathematical approaches advocated here complement and enhance the numerical and theoretical approaches that are commonly applied to more complex models in the context of MPA design.

Detecting larval export from marine reserves

Marine reserve theory suggests that where large, productive populations are protected within no-take marine reserves, fished areas outside reserves will benefit through the spillover of larvae produced in the reserves. However, empirical evidence for larval export has been sparse. Here we use a simple idealized coastline model to estimate the expected magnitude and spatial scale of larval export from no-take marine reserves across a range of reserve sizes and larval dispersal scales. Results suggest that, given the magnitude of increased production typically found in marine reserves, benefits from larval export are nearly always large enough to offset increased mortality outside marine reserves due to displaced fishing effort. However, the proportional increase in recruitment at sites outside reserves is typically small, particularly for species with long-distance (on the order of hundreds of kilometers) larval dispersal distances, making it very difficult to detect in field studies. Enhanced recruitment due to export may be detected by sampling several sites at an appropriate range of distances from reserves or at sites downcurrent of reserves in systems with directional dispersal. A review of existing empirical evidence confirms the model's suggestion that detecting export may be difficult without an exceptionally large differential in production, short-distance larval dispersal relative to reserve size, directional dispersal, or a sampling scheme that encompasses a broad range of distances from the reserves.