Partial Clonality Expands the Opportunity for Spatial Adaptation

AbstractReproductive mode may strongly impact adaptation in spatially varying populations linked by dispersal, especially when sexual and clonal offspring differ in dispersal. We determined how spatial structure affects adaptation in populations with mixed clonal and sexual reproduction. In a source-sink quantitative genetic deterministic model (with stabilizing selection around different optima), greater clonal reproduction or parent-offspring association (a measure of the part of the parent's phenotype other than the additive genetic component inherited by clonal offspring) increased the selective difference (difference between phenotypic optima) allowing sink populations to adapt. Given dispersal differences between clonally and sexually produced juveniles, adaptation increased with an increasing fraction of clonal dispersers. When considering migrational meltdown, partially clonal reproduction reduced cases where dispersal caused habitat loss. Stochastic individual-based simulations support these results, although the effect of differential dispersal was reversed, with decreased clonal dispersal allowing greater adaptation. These results parallel earlier findings that for an instantaneous shift in phenotypic optimum, increasing clonality allowed population persistence for a greater shift; here, selective change is spatial rather than temporal. These results may help explain the success of many partially clonal organisms in invading new habitats, complementing traditional explanations based on avoiding Allee effects.

Competition, Trait Variance Dynamics, and the Evolution of a Species' Range

Geographic ranges of communities of species evolve in response to environmental, ecological, and evolutionary forces. Understanding the effects of these forces on species' range dynamics is a major goal of spatial ecology. Previous mathematical models have jointly captured the dynamic changes in species' population distributions and the selective evolution of fitness-related phenotypic traits in the presence of an environmental gradient. These models inevitably include some unrealistic assumptions, and biologically reasonable ranges of values for their parameters are not easy to specify. As a result, simulations of the seminal models of this type can lead to markedly different conclusions about the behavior of such populations, including the possibility of maladaptation setting stable range boundaries. Here, we harmonize such results by developing and simulating a continuum model of range evolution in a community of species that interact competitively while diffusing over an environmental gradient. Our model extends existing models by incorporating both competition and freely changing intraspecific trait variance. Simulations of this model predict a spatial profile of species' trait variance that is consistent with experimental measurements available in the literature. Moreover, they reaffirm interspecific competition as an effective factor in limiting species' ranges, even when trait variance is not artificially constrained. These theoretical results can inform the design of, as yet rare, empirical studies to clarify the evolutionary causes of range stabilization.

What Do We Really Know About Adaptation at Range Edges?

Recent theory and empirical evidence have provided new insights regarding how evolutionary forces interact to shape adaptation at stable and transient range margins. Predictions regarding trait divergence at leading edges are frequently supported. However, declines in fitness at and beyond edges show that trait divergence has sometimes been insufficient to maintain high fitness, so identifying constraints to adaptation at range edges remains a key challenge. Indirect evidence suggests that range expansion may be limited by adaptive genetic variation, but direct estimates of genetic constraints at and beyond range edges are still scarce. Sequence data suggest increased genetic load in edge populations in several systems, but its causes and fitness consequences are usually poorly understood. The balance between maladaptive and positive effects of gene flow on fitness at range edges deserves further study. It is becoming increasingly clear that characterizations about degree of adaptation based solely on geographical peripherality are unsupported.

Local adaptation, dispersal evolution, and the spatial eco-evolutionary dynamics of invasion

Local adaptation and dispersal evolution are key evolutionary processes shaping the invasion dynamics of populations colonizing new environments. Yet their interaction is largely unresolved. Using a single-species population model along a one-dimensional environmental gradient, we show how local competition and dispersal jointly shape the eco-evolutionary dynamics and speed of invasion. From a focal introduction site, the generic pattern predicted by our model features a temporal transition from wave-like to pulsed invasion. Each regime is driven primarily by local adaptation, while the transition is caused by eco-evolutionary feedbacks mediated by dispersal. The interaction range and cost of dispersal arise as key factors of the duration and speed of each phase. Our results demonstrate that spatial eco-evolutionary feedbacks along environmental gradients can drive strong temporal variation in the rate and structure of population spread, and must be considered to better understand and forecast invasion rates and range dynamics.

Hybridization as a facilitator of species range expansion

Explaining the evolution of species geographical ranges is fundamental to understanding how biodiversity is distributed and maintained. The solution to this classic problem in ecology and evolution remains elusive: we still do not fully know how species geographical ranges evolve and what factors fuel range expansions. Resolving this problem is now more crucial than ever with increasing biodiversity loss, global change and movement of species by humans. Here, we describe and evaluate the hypothesis that hybridization between species can contribute to species range expansion. We discuss how such a process can occur and the empirical data that are needed to test this hypothesis. We also examine how species can expand into new environments via hybridization with a resident species, and yet remain distinct species. Generally, hybridization may play an underappreciated role in influencing the evolution of species ranges. Whether-and to what extent-hybridization has such an effect requires further study across more diverse taxa.

Inference Towards the Best Explanation: Reflections on the Issue of Climate Change

Science is an organized enterprise of inquiry which tries to tie together multiple strands of evidence to craft coherent explanations for disparate patterns in the natural world. Philosophers call this enterprise “inference towards the best explanation”. Such inferences at times depend upon detailed quantitative models, but at times one can rely upon the confluence of multiple strands of qualitative evidence. Humans are having unquestionable influences upon many aspects of the earth system at present, on land, in freshwater systems, and indeed the ocean, including devastating impacts on biodiversity. There are many patterns in the world at present – shrinking glaciers, shifting seasonal patterns in species’ life histories, and altered spatial distributions – which point to the signal of climate change, independent of the details of quantitative climate models. Yet, there are many other factors at play, often confounding clear assessment of the specific role of climate change in observed changes in the world. A deeper synoptic understanding of the drivers and impacts of climate change would be incredibly valuable and is urgently needed, even if in the end (though this seems increasingly unlikely) anthropogenic drivers were not the main factor underlying observed climate change.

Chromosome inversions, adaptive cassettes and the evolution of species' ranges

A chromosome inversion can spread when it captures locally adapted alleles or when it is introduced into a species by hybridization with adapted alleles that were previously absent. We present a model that shows how both processes can cause a species range to expand. Introgression of an inversion that carries novel, locally adapted alleles is a particularly powerful mechanism for range expansion. The model supports the earlier proposal that introgression of an inversion triggered a large range expansion of a malaria mosquito. These results suggest a role for inversions as cassettes of genes that can accelerate adaptation by crossing species boundaries, rather than protecting genomes from introgression.

Allee effects, adaptive evolution, and invasion success

The mechanisms that facilitate success of an invasive species include both ecological and evolutionary processes. Investigating the evolutionary dynamics of founder populations can enhance our understanding of patterns of invasiveness and provide insight into management strategies for controlling further establishment of introduced populations. Our aim is to analyze the evolutionary consequences of ecological processes (i.e., propagule pressure and threshold density effects) that impact successful colonization. We address our questions using a spatially-explicit modeling approach that incorporates dispersal, density dependent population growth, and selection. Our results show that adaptive evolution may occur in small or sparse populations, providing a means of mitigating or avoiding inverse density dependent effects (i.e., Allee effects). The rate at which this adaptation occurs is proportional to the amount of genetic variance and is a crucial component in assessing whether natural selection can rescue a population from extinction. We provide theoretical evidence for the importance of recognizing evolution in predicting and explaining successful biological invasions.

Propagule limitation, disparate habitat quality, and variation in phenotypic selection at a local species range boundary

Adaptation to novel conditions beyond current range boundaries requires the presence of suitable sites within dispersal range, but may be impeded when emigrants encounter poor habitat and sharply different selection pressures. We investigated fine-scale spatial heterogeneity in ecological dynamics and selection at a local population boundary of the annual plant Gilia tricolor. In two years, we planted G. tricolor seeds in core habitat, margin habitat at the edge of the local range, and exterior habitat in order to measure spatial and temporal variation in habitat quality, opportunity for selection, and selection on phenotypic traits. We found a striking decline in average habitat quality with distance from the population core, yet some migrant seeds were successful in suitable, unoccupied microsites at and beyond the range boundary. Total and direct selection on four out of five measured phenotypic traits varied across habitat zones, as well as between years. Moreover, the margin habitat often exerted unique selection pressures that were not intermediate between core and exterior habitats. This study reveals that a combination of ecological and evolutionary forces, including propagule limitation, variation in habitat quality and spatial heterogeneity in phenotypic selection may reduce opportunities for adaptive range expansion, even across a very local population boundary.

The role of propagule pressure, genetic diversity and microsite availability for Senecio vernalis invasion

Genetic diversity is supposed to support the colonization success of expanding species, in particular in situations where microsite availability is constrained. Addressing the role of genetic diversity in plant invasion experimentally requires its manipulation independent of propagule pressure. To assess the relative importance of these components for the invasion of Senecio vernalis, we created propagule mixtures of four levels of genotype diversity by combining seeds across remote populations, across proximate populations, within single populations and within seed families. In a first container experiment with constant Festuca rupicola density as matrix, genotype diversity was crossed with three levels of seed density. In a second experiment, we tested for effects of establishment limitation and genotype diversity by manipulating Festuca densities. Increasing genetic diversity had no effects on abundance and biomass of S. vernalis but positively affected the proportion of large individuals to small individuals. Mixtures composed from proximate populations had a significantly higher proportion of large individuals than mixtures composed from within seed families only. High propagule pressure increased emergence and establishment of S. vernalis but had no effect on individual growth performance. Establishment was favoured in containers with Festuca, but performance of surviving seedlings was higher in open soil treatments. For S. vernalis invasion, we found a shift in driving factors from density dependence to effects of genetic diversity across life stages. While initial abundance was mostly linked to the amount of seed input, genetic diversity, in contrast, affected later stages of colonization probably via sampling effects and seemed to contribute to filtering the genotypes that finally grew up. In consequence, when disentangling the mechanistic relationships of genetic diversity, seed density and microsite limitation in colonization of invasive plants, a clear differentiation between initial emergence and subsequent survival to juvenile and adult stages is required.

How competition affects evolutionary rescue

Populations facing novel environments can persist by adapting. In nature, the ability to adapt and persist will depend on interactions between coexisting individuals. Here we use an adaptive dynamic model to assess how the potential for evolutionary rescue is affected by intra- and interspecific competition. Intraspecific competition (negative density-dependence) lowers abundance, which decreases the supply rate of beneficial mutations, hindering evolutionary rescue. On the other hand, interspecific competition can aid evolutionary rescue when it speeds adaptation by increasing the strength of selection. Our results clarify this point and give an additional requirement: competition must increase selection pressure enough to overcome the negative effect of reduced abundance. We therefore expect evolutionary rescue to be most likely in communities which facilitate rapid niche displacement. Our model, which aligns to previous quantitative and population genetic models in the absence of competition, provides a first analysis of when competitors should help or hinder evolutionary rescue.

Range limits in spatially explicit models of quantitative traits

In an influential paper, Kirkpatrick and Barton (Am Nat 150:1-23 1997) presented a system of diffusive partial differential equations modeling the joint evolution of population density and the mean of a quantitative trait when the trait optimum varies over a continuous spatial domain. We present a stability theorem for steady states of a simplified version of the system, originally studied in Kirkpatrick and Barton (Am Nat 150:1-23 1997). We also present a derivation of the system.

Evolutionarily labile species interactions and spatial spread of invasive species

Both exotic and native species have been shown to evolve in response to invasions, yet the impacts of rapidly evolving interactions between novel species pairs have been largely ignored in studies of invasive species spread. Here, I use a mathematical model of an interacting invasive predator and its native prey to determine when and how evolutionary lability in one or both species might impact the dynamics of the invader's spatial advance. The model shows that evolutionarily labile invaders continually evolve better adapted phenotypes along the moving invasion front, offering an explanation for accelerating spread and spatial phenotype clines following invasion. I then analytically derive a formula to estimate the relative change in spread rate due to evolution. Using parameter estimates from the literature, this formula shows that moderate heritabilities and selection strengths are sufficient to account for changes in spread rates observed in historical and ongoing invasions. Evolutionarily labile native species can slow invader spread when genes flow from native populations with exposure to the invader into native populations ahead of the invasion front. This outcome is more likely in systems with highly diffuse native dispersal, net directional movement of natives toward the invasion front, or human inoculation of uninvaded native populations.

Theoretical perspectives on the statics and dynamics of species' borders in patchy environments

Understanding range limits is a fundamental problem in ecology and evolutionary biology. In 1963, Mayr argued that "contaminating" gene flow from central populations constrained adaptation in marginal populations, preventing range expansion, while in 1984, Bradshaw suggested that absence of genetic variation prevented species from occurring everywhere. Understanding stability of range boundaries requires unraveling the interplay of demography, gene flow, and evolution of populations in concrete landscape settings. We walk through a set of interrelated spatial scenarios that illustrate interesting complexities of this interplay. To motivate our individual-based model results, we consider a hypothetical zooplankter in a landscape of discrete water bodies coupled by dispersal. We examine how patterns of dispersal influence adaptation in sink habitats where conditions are outside the species' niche. The likelihood of observing niche evolution (and thus range expansion) over any given timescale depends on (1) the degree of initial maladaptation; (2) pattern (pulsed vs. continuous, uni- vs. bidirectional), timing (juvenile vs. adult), and rate of dispersal (and hence population size); (3) mutation rate; (4) sexuality; and (5) the degree of heterogeneity in the occupied range. We also show how the genetic architecture of polygenic adaptation is influenced by the interplay of selection and dispersal in heterogeneous landscapes.

Predation and the evolutionary dynamics of species ranges

Gene flow that hampers local adaptation can constrain species distributions and slow invasions. Predation as an ecological factor mainly limits prey species ranges, but a richer array of possibilities arises once one accounts for how predation alters the interplay of gene flow and selection. We extend previous single-species theory on the interplay of demography, gene flow, and selection by investigating how predation modifies the coupled demographic-evolutionary dynamics of the range and habitat use of prey. We consider a model for two discrete patches and a complementary model for species along continuous environmental gradients. We show that predation can strongly influence the evolutionary stability of prey habitat specialization and range limits. Predators can permit prey to expand in habitat or geographical range or, conversely, cause range collapses. Transient increases in predation can induce shifts in prey ranges that persist even if the predator itself later becomes extinct. Whether a predator tightens or loosens evolutionary constraints on the invasion speed and ultimate size of a prey range depends on the predator effectiveness, its mobility relative to its prey, and the prey's intraspecific density dependence, as well as the magnitude of environmental heterogeneity. Our results potentially provide a novel explanation for lags and reversals in invasions.

Density-regulated population dynamics and conditional dispersal alter the fate of mutations occurring at the front of an expanding population

There is an increasing recognition that the interplay between ecological and evolutionary processes shapes the genetic footprint of populations during and after range expansions. However, more complex ecological processes regularly considered within spatial ecology remain unexplored in models describing the population genetics of range expansion. In this study we integrate flexible descriptions of population growth and competition as well as conditional dispersal into a model that simulates the fate of mutations occurring at the wave front of an expanding population. Our results show that the survival and distribution of a mutation is not only affected by its bias (that is, whether it is deleterious, neutral or beneficial) but also by the mode of local density regulation and conditional dispersal of the simulated populations. It is in particular the chance of a mutation to establish at the front of advance and 'surf' to high frequencies that critically depends on the investigated ecological processes. This is because of the influence of these processes on demographic stochasticity in the system and the differential responses of deleterious, neutral and beneficial mutations to this stochasticity. Generally, deleterious mutations rely more on chance and thus profit the most from ecological processes that enhance demographic stochasticity during the period of establishment. Our study emphasizes the importance of incorporating more ecological realism into evolutionary models to better understand the consequences of shifting geographic ranges for the genetic structure of populations and to find efficient adaptation strategies to mitigate these effects.

Why is adaptation prevented at ecological margins? New insights from individual-based simulations

All species are restricted in their distribution. Currently, ecological models can only explain such limits if patches vary in quality, leading to asymmetrical dispersal, or if genetic variation is too low at the margins for adaptation. However, population genetic models suggest that the increase in genetic variance resulting from dispersal should allow adaptation to almost any ecological gradient. Clearly therefore, these models miss something that prevents evolution in natural populations. We developed an individual-based simulation to explore stochastic effects in these models. At high carrying capacities, our simulations largely agree with deterministic predictions. However, when carrying capacity is low, the population fails to establish for a wide range of parameter values where adaptation was expected from previous models. Stochastic or transient effects appear critical around the boundaries in parameter space between simulation behaviours. Dispersal, gradient steepness, and population density emerge as key factors determining adaptation on an ecological gradient.

Species' range: adaptation in space and time

Populations living in a spatially and temporally changing environment can adapt to the changing optimum and/or migrate toward favorable habitats. Here we extend previous analyses with a static optimum to allow the environment to vary in time as well as in space. The model follows both population dynamics and the trait mean under stabilizing selection, and the outcomes can be understood by comparing the loads due to genetic variance, dispersal, and temporal change. With fixed genetic variance, we obtain two regimes: (1) adaptation that is uniform along the environmental gradient and that responds to the moving optimum as expected for panmictic populations and when the spatial gradient is sufficiently steep, and (2) a population with limited range that adapts more slowly than the environmental optimum changes in both time and space; the population therefore becomes locally extinct and migrates toward suitable habitat. We also use a population-genetic model with many loci to allow genetic variance to evolve, and we show that the only solution now has uniform adaptation.

Determining the functional form of density dependence: deductive approaches for consumer-resource systems having a single resource

Consumer-resource models are used to deduce the functional form of density dependence in the consumer population. A general approach to determining the form of consumer density dependence is proposed; this involves determining the equilibrium (or average) population size for a series of different harvest rates. The relationship between a consumer's mortality and its equilibrium population size is explored for several one-consumer/one-resource models. The shape of density dependence in the resource and the shape of the numerical and functional responses all tend to be "inherited" by the consumer's density dependence. Consumer-resource models suggest that density dependence will very often have both concave and convex segments, something that is impossible under the commonly used theta-logistic model. A range of consumer-resource models predicts that consumer population size often declines at a decelerating rate with mortality at low mortality rates, is insensitive to or increases with mortality over a wide range of intermediate mortalities, and declines at a rapidly accelerating rate with increased mortality when mortality is high. This has important implications for management and conservation of natural populations.

Can gene flow have negative demographic consequences? Mixed evidence from stream threespine stickleback

Dispersal and gene flow can have both positive and negative effects on population size, but little empirical support from nature exists for the negative effects. We test for such effects in a stream population of threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus L.) that is subject to high gene flow from a lake and is thus maladapted to stream conditions. In this system, maladaptation increases with distance along the stream, and this increase is associated with decreasing population densities until stickleback are no longer present (2.5 km from the lake). We conducted field experiments to inform whether this association might reflect a negative role for gene flow in constraining population size and therefore causing a local range limit. We specifically tested predictions deriving from theory: peripheral populations should show partial local adaptation, be under strong selection and not simply be maintained by dispersal. First, a transplant experiment suggested a weak home-site advantage in the peripheral population. Second, a mark-recapture study showed directional selection for a stream-adapted phenotype in 1 of 2 years. Third, another mark-recapture experiment showed that dispersal is limited to the point that positive demographic effects of dispersal are probably minimal. We conclude that, although gene flow does constrain morphological maladaptation in the outlet stream population, the evidence for its contribution to population size and range limits is mixed. We discuss the implications of our work for the study of factors influencing the evolution of species' ranges.

Variation at range margins across multiple spatial scales: environmental temperature, population genetics and metabolomic phenotype

Range margins are spatially complex, with environmental, genetic and phenotypic variations occurring across a range of spatial scales. We examine variation in temperature, genes and metabolomic profiles within and between populations of the subalpine perennial plant Arabidopsis lyrata ssp. petraea from across its northwest European range. Our surveys cover a gradient of fragmentation from largely continuous populations in Iceland, through more fragmented Scandinavian populations, to increasingly widely scattered populations at the range margin in Scotland, Wales and Ireland. Temperature regimes vary substantially within some populations, but within-population variation represents a larger fraction of genetic and especially metabolomic variances. Both physical distance and temperature differences between sites are found to be associated with genetic profiles, but not metabolomic profiles, and no relationship was found between genetic and metabolomic population structures in any region. Genetic similarity between plants within populations is the highest in the fragmented populations at the range margin, but differentiation across space is the highest there as well, suggesting that regional patterns of genetic diversity may be scale dependent.

Evolutionarily stable range limits set by interspecific competition

A combination of abiotic and biotic factors probably restricts the range of many species. Recent evolutionary models and tests of those models have asked how a gradual change in environmental conditions can set the range limit, with a prominent idea being that gene flow disrupts local adaptation. We investigate how biotic factors, explicitly competition for limited resources, result in evolutionarily stable range limits even in the absence of the disruptive effect of gene flow. We model two competing species occupying different segments of the resource spectrum. If one segment of the resource spectrum declines across space, a species that specializes on that segment can be driven to extinction, even though in the absence of competition it would evolve to exploit other abundant resources and so be saved. The result is that a species range limit is set in both evolutionary and ecological time, as the resources associated with its niche decline. Factors promoting this outcome include: (i) inherent gaps in the resource distribution, (ii) relatively high fitness of the species when in its own niche, and low fitness in the alternative niche, even when resource abundances are similar in each niche, (iii) strong interspecific competition, and (iv) asymmetric interspecific competition. We suggest that these features are likely to be common in multispecies communities, thereby setting evolutionarily stable range limits.

Trophic interactions and range limits: the diverse roles of predation

Interactions between natural enemies and their victims are a pervasive feature of the natural world. In this paper, we discuss trophic interactions as determinants of geographic range limits. Predators can directly limit ranges, or do so in conjunction with competition. Dispersal can at times permit a specialist predator to constrain the distribution of its prey-and thus itself-along a gradient. Conversely, we suggest that predators can also at times permit prey to have larger ranges than would be seen without predation. We discuss several ecological and evolutionary mechanisms that can lead to this counter-intuitive outcome.