The role of heterogeneity in the persistence and prevalence of Sin Nombre virus in deer mice

Ecology of Neglected Rodent-Borne American Orthohantaviruses

The number of documented American orthohantaviruses has increased significantly over recent decades, but most fundamental research has remained focused on just two of them: Andes virus (ANDV) and Sin Nombre virus (SNV). The majority of American orthohantaviruses are known to cause disease in humans, and most of these pathogenic strains were not described prior to human cases, indicating the importance of understanding all members of the virus clade. In this review, we summarize information on the ecology of under-studied rodent-borne American orthohantaviruses to form general conclusions and highlight important gaps in knowledge. Information regarding the presence and genetic diversity of many orthohantaviruses throughout the distributional range of their hosts is minimal and would significantly benefit from virus isolations to indicate a reservoir role. Additionally, few studies have investigated the mechanisms underlying transmission routes and factors affecting the environmental persistence of orthohantaviruses, limiting our understanding of factors driving prevalence fluctuations. As landscapes continue to change, host ranges and human exposure to orthohantaviruses likely will as well. Research on the ecology of neglected orthohantaviruses is necessary for understanding both current and future threats to human health.

The Ecology and Phylogeny of Hosts Drive the Enzootic Infection Cycles of Hantaviruses

Hantaviruses (Family: Hantaviridae; genus: Orthohantavirus) and their associated human diseases occur globally and differ according to their geographic distribution. The structure of small mammal assemblages and phylogenetic relatedness among host species are suggested as strong drivers for the maintenance and spread of hantavirus infections in small mammals. We developed predictive models for hantavirus infection prevalence in rodent assemblages using defined ecological correlates from our current knowledge of hantavirus-host distributions to provide predictive models at the global and continental scale. We utilized data from published research between 1971–2014 and determined the biological and ecological characteristics of small mammal assemblages to predict the prevalence of hantavirus infections. These models are useful in predicting hantavirus disease outbreaks based on environmental and biological information obtained through the surveillance of rodents.

Transmissible vaccines in heterogeneous populations: Implications for vaccine design

Transmissible vaccines may provide a promising solution for improving the control of infectious disease, particularly zoonotic pathogens with wildlife reservoirs. Although it is well known that heterogeneity in pathogen transmission impacts the spread of infectious disease, the effects of heterogeneity on vaccine transmission are largely unknown. Here we develop and analyze a mathematical model that quantifies the potential benefits of a transmissible vaccine in a population where transmission is heterogeneous between two subgroups. Our results demonstrate that the effect of heterogeneity on the benefit of vaccine transmission largely depends on the vaccine design and the pattern of vaccine administration across subgroups. Specifically, our results show that in most cases a transmissible vaccine designed to mirror the transmission of the pathogen is optimal. If the vaccination effort can be preferentially biased towards a given subgroup, a vaccine with a pattern of transmission opposite to that of the pathogen can become optimal in some cases. To better understand the consequences of heterogeneity on the effectiveness of a transmissible vaccine in the real world, we parameterized our model using data from Sin Nombre virus in deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus). The results of this analysis reveal that when a vaccination campaign is limited in vaccine availability, a traditional vaccine must be administered primarily to males for the spread of Sin Nombre virus to be prevented. In contrast, a transmissible vaccine remains effective even when it cannot be preferentially administered to males.

Cross-immunity between strains explains the dynamical pattern of paramyxoviruses

Viral respiratory tract diseases pose serious public health problems. Our ability to predict and thus, be able to prepare for outbreaks is strained by the complex factors driving the prevalence and severity of these diseases. The abundance of diseases and transmission dynamics of strains are not only affected by external factors, such as weather, but also driven by interactions among viruses mediated by human behavior and immunity. To untangle the complex out-of-phase annual and biennial pattern of three common paramyxoviruses, Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV), Human Parainfluenza Virus (HPIV), and Human Metapneumovirus (hMPV), we adopt a theoretical approach that integrates ecological and immunological mechanisms of disease interactions. By estimating parameters from multiyear time series of laboratory-confirmed cases from the intermountain west region of the United States and using statistical inference, we show that models of immune-mediated interactions better explain the data than those based on ecological competition by convalescence. The strength of cross-protective immunity among viruses is correlated with their genetic distance in the phylogenetic tree of the paramyxovirus family.

Toward a Mechanistic Understanding of Environmentally Forced Zoonotic Disease Emergence: Sin Nombre Hantavirus

Understanding the environmental drivers of zoonotic reservoir and human interactions is crucial to understanding disease risk, but these drivers are poorly predicted. We propose a mechanistic understanding of human-reservoir interactions, using hantavirus pulmonary syndrome as a case study. Crucial processes underpinning the disease's incidence remain poorly studied, including the connectivity among natural and peridomestic deer mouse host activity, virus transmission, and human exposure. We found that disease cases were greatest in arid states and declined exponentially with increasing precipitation. Within arid environments, relatively rare climatic conditions (e.g., El Niño) are associated with increased rainfall and reservoir abundance, producing more frequent virus transmission and host dispersal. We suggest that deer mice increase their occupancy of peridomestic structures during spring-summer, amplifying intraspecific transmission and human infection risk. Disease incidence in arid states may increase with predicted climatic changes. Mechanistic approaches incorporating reservoir behavior, reservoir-human interactions, and pathogen spillover could enhance our understanding of global hantavirus ecology, with applications to other directly transmitted zoonoses.

The role of behavioural heterogeneity on infection patterns: implications for pathogen transmission

Animals infected with pathogens often differ in behaviour from their uninfected counterparts, and these differences may be key to understanding zoonotic pathogen transmission. To explore behavioural heterogeneity and its role in pathogen transmission, we studied deer mice, Peromyscus maniculatus, under field conditions. Deer mice are the natural host of Sin Nombre virus (SNV), a zoonotic pathogen with high human mortality. We live-trapped mice in May, July and September of 2009 and 2010, marked captures with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags, recorded physical characteristics and collected blood samples for SNV analysis. For 4 nights after each trapping session, we observed behaviour with a novel surveillance system of nine camera stations, each consisting of a foraging tray, infrared camera, PIT antenna and data logger. We found that deer mice infected with SNV (30.0%) engaged more frequently in behaviours that increased the probability of intraspecific encounters and SNV transmission than did uninfected deer mice. When deer mice were categorized as bold (31.7%) or shy (68.3%) based on these behaviours, bold behaviour was predictive of positive SNV status. Bold deer mice were three times more likely to be infected with SNV than were shy deer mice. These results suggest that a small percentage of bold individuals are responsible for a majority of SNV transmission events, and that behavioural phenotype is an important consideration in transmission dynamics of zoonotic diseases.

Mathematical Modeling of Viral Zoonoses in Wildlife

Zoonoses are a worldwide public health concern, accounting for approximately 75% of human infectious diseases. In addition, zoonoses adversely affect agricultural production and wildlife. We review some mathematical models developed for the study of viral zoonoses in wildlife and identify areas where further modeling efforts are needed.

Long-term patterns of immune investment by wild deer mice infected with Sin Nombre virus

Immunocompetence of animals fluctuates seasonally, However, there is little consensus on the cause of these fluctuations. Some studies have suggested that these patterns are influenced by changes in reproductive condition, whereas others have suggested that differences result from seasonal variations in energy expenditures. The objective of our study was to examine these contrasting views of immunity by evaluating seasonal patterns of immune response and reproduction in wild populations of deer mice Peromyscus maniculatus exposed to Sin Nombre virus (SNV). Over three consecutive fall (September, October, November) and three consecutive spring (March, April, May) sampling periods, we used titration enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) to quantify virus-specific antibody production in 48 deer mice infected with SNV. Levels of reproductive hormones were quantified using ELISA. SNV antibody titers reached their lowest level during November (geometric mean titer [GMT] = 420) and their highest levels during September (GMT = 5,545) and May (GMT = 3,582), suggesting that the immune response of deer mice to SNV has seasonal patterns. The seeming decrease in antibody titer over winter coupled with the consistency in body masses suggests that during winter, immunocompetence may be compromised to offset the energetic costs of maintenance functions, including those associated with maintaining body mass. Deer mice showed distinct sex-based differences in SNV antibody production, with males producing higher antibody titers (GMT = 3,333) than females (GMT = 1,477). Levels of reproductive hormones do not appear to influence antibody production in either males or females, as there was no correlation between estradiol concentrations and SNV antibody titer in female deer mice (r² = 0.26), nor was there a significant relationship between levels of testosterone and SNV antibody titers in males (r² = 0.28). Collectively, this study demonstrates that immunocompetence of wild deer mice is seasonally variable; however, reproduction is not the primary stressor responsible for this variation. Rather, the data suggest that deer mice may compromise immunocompetence during winter to offset other maintenance costs during this period.

Roles of human disturbance, precipitation, and a pathogen on the survival and reproductive probabilities of deer mice

Climate change, human disturbance, and disease can have large impacts on the dynamics of a species by affecting the likelihood of survival and reproduction of individuals. We investigated the roles of precipitation, off-road vehicle (ORV) alteration of habitat, and infection with Sin Nombre virus on the survival and reproductive probabilities of deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus). We used generalized linear mixed models to estimate the effects of these factors and their interactions by fitting capture-recapture data collected seasonally from 2002 to 2007 at 17 sites in the Great Basin Desert of central Utah, USA. During periods with high precipitation, we found no difference in survival and reproductive probabilities between seasons, but during drier periods, we found a reduction of overwinter survival and fall reproductive activity. Precipitation also interacted with disturbance to affect survival probabilities and female reproduction; in periods with low precipitation, deer mice on highly disturbed sites had extremely low survival probabilities and low reproductive probabilities of females compared to those of individuals from low-disturbance sites. However, high precipitation ameliorated the effect of disturbance on both parameters. Deer mice from sites with high impact of ORV disturbance also had low survival over summer. Additionally, male reproductive probabilities were diminished on highly disturbed sites in both seasons; in contrast, they were reduced only in the fall on low-disturbance sites. Density had an overall negative effect on survival and reproductive probabilities of deer mice. For females, the negative effect on reproductive activity was amplified in highly disturbed sites. We found no effect of hantavirus infection on survival probabilities of deer mice. Overall, this study revealed complexity in the determinants of deer mouse survival and reproduction given by the effects of a number of significant interactions among explanatory variables. Thus, factors that may not appear to have a strong effect when investigated alone can still be influential by modulating the effect of a different factor.

The evolution of sex-specific immune defences

Why do males and females often differ in their ability to cope with infection? Beyond physiological mechanisms, it has recently been proposed that life-history theory could explain immune differences from an adaptive point of view in relation to sex-specific reproductive strategies. However, a point often overlooked is that the benefits of immunity, and possibly the costs, depend not only on the host genotype but also on the presence and the phenotype of pathogens. To address this issue we developed an adaptive dynamic model that includes host–pathogen population dynamics and host sexual reproduction. Our model predicts that, although different reproductive strategies, following Bateman's principle, are not enough to select for different levels of immunity, males and females respond differently to further changes in the characteristics of either sex. For example, if males are more exposed to infection than females (e.g. for behavioural reasons), it is possible to see them evolve lower immunocompetence than females. This and other counterintuitive results highlight the importance of ecological feedbacks in the evolution of immune defences. While this study focuses on sex-specific natural selection, it could easily be extended to include sexual selection and thus help to understand the interplay between the two processes.

The role of age structure in the persistence of a chronic pathogen in a fluctuating population

Small mammal populations exhibit large fluctuations, potentially leading to local extinction of specialist pathogens after bottlenecks. Pathogen persistence in recovering populations depends on the epidemiological characteristics of the hosts that survive the bottlenecks. Sin Nombre virus is a largely asymptomatic infection of deer mice, which creates a chronic lifelong infection. Earlier work on this virus has shown that males play a key role in pathogen persistence through a combination of longer lifespan and higher seroprevalence. Other evidence indicates that mouse age could play an equally important role, as older mice may have higher survivorship and higher contact rates. We use age structured models to examine the relationships among prevalence, age-dependent demographics, and age-dependent epidemiology.