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Zheng X, Babst F, Camarero JJ, Li X, Lu X, Gao S, Sigdel SR, Wang Y, Zhu H, Liang E. Density-dependent species interactions modulate alpine treeline shifts. Ecol Lett 2024; 27:e14403. [PMID: 38577961 DOI: 10.1111/ele.14403] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/25/2023] [Revised: 02/22/2024] [Accepted: 02/23/2024] [Indexed: 04/06/2024]
Abstract
Species interactions such as facilitation and competition play a crucial role in driving species range shifts. However, density dependence as a key feature of these processes has received little attention in both empirical and modelling studies. Herein, we used a novel, individual-based treeline model informed by rich in situ observations to quantify the contribution of density-dependent species interactions to alpine treeline dynamics, an iconic biome boundary recognized as an indicator of global warming. We found that competition and facilitation dominate in dense versus sparse vegetation scenarios respectively. The optimal balance between these two effects was identified at an intermediate vegetation thickness where the treeline elevation was the highest. Furthermore, treeline shift rates decreased sharply with vegetation thickness and the associated transition from positive to negative species interactions. We thus postulate that vegetation density must be considered when modelling species range dynamics to avoid inadequate predictions of its responses to climate warming.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiangyu Zheng
- State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Environment and Resources (TPESER), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Flurin Babst
- School of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, USA
- Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, USA
| | | | - Xiaoxia Li
- State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Environment and Resources (TPESER), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Xiaoming Lu
- State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Environment and Resources (TPESER), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Shan Gao
- State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Environment and Resources (TPESER), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Shalik Ram Sigdel
- State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Environment and Resources (TPESER), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Yafeng Wang
- College of Biology and the Environment, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, China
| | - Haifeng Zhu
- State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Environment and Resources (TPESER), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Eryuan Liang
- State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Environment and Resources (TPESER), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
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Ainsworth A, Drake DR. Hawaiian Treeline Ecotones: Implications for Plant Community Conservation under Climate Change. PLANTS (BASEL, SWITZERLAND) 2023; 13:123. [PMID: 38202431 PMCID: PMC10780311 DOI: 10.3390/plants13010123] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/01/2023] [Revised: 12/15/2023] [Accepted: 12/24/2023] [Indexed: 01/12/2024]
Abstract
Species within tropical alpine treeline ecotones are predicted to be especially sensitive to climate variability because this zone represents tree species' altitudinal limits. Hawaiian volcanoes have distinct treeline ecotones driven by trade wind inversions. The local climate is changing, but little is known about how this influences treeline vegetation. To predict future impacts of climate variability on treelines, we must define the range of variation in treeline ecotone characteristics. Previous studies highlighted an abrupt transition between subalpine grasslands and wet forest on windward Haleakalā, but this site does not represent the diversity of treeline ecotones among volcanoes, lava substrates, and local climatic conditions. To capture this diversity, we used data from 225 plots spanning treelines (1500-2500 m) on Haleakalā and Mauna Loa to characterize ecotonal plant communities. Treeline indicator species differ by moisture and temperature, with common native species important for wet forest, subalpine woodland, and subalpine shrubland. The frequency or abundance of community indicator species may be better predictors of shifting local climates than the presence or absence of tree life forms per se. This study further supports the hypothesis that changes in available moisture, rather than temperature, will dictate the future trajectory of Hawaiian treeline ecotone communities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alison Ainsworth
- School of Life Sciences, University of Hawai’i at Mānoa, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA;
- National Park Service, Pacific Island Inventory and Monitoring Network, Hawaii National Park, HI 96718, USA
| | - Donald R. Drake
- School of Life Sciences, University of Hawai’i at Mānoa, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA;
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3
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Petter G, Kreft H, Ong Y, Zotz G, Cabral JS. Modelling the long-term dynamics of tropical forests: From leaf traits to whole-tree growth patterns. Ecol Modell 2021. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2021.109735] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
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4
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Gallagher CA, Chudzinska M, Larsen-Gray A, Pollock CJ, Sells SN, White PJC, Berger U. From theory to practice in pattern-oriented modelling: identifying and using empirical patterns in predictive models. Biol Rev Camb Philos Soc 2021; 96:1868-1888. [PMID: 33978325 DOI: 10.1111/brv.12729] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/09/2020] [Revised: 04/14/2021] [Accepted: 04/16/2021] [Indexed: 01/21/2023]
Abstract
To robustly predict the effects of disturbance and ecosystem changes on species, it is necessary to produce structurally realistic models with high predictive power and flexibility. To ensure that these models reflect the natural conditions necessary for reliable prediction, models must be informed and tested using relevant empirical observations. Pattern-oriented modelling (POM) offers a systematic framework for employing empirical patterns throughout the modelling process and has been coupled with complex systems modelling, such as in agent-based models (ABMs). However, while the production of ABMs has been rising rapidly, the explicit use of POM has not increased. Challenges with identifying patterns and an absence of specific guidelines on how to implement empirical observations may limit the accessibility of POM and lead to the production of models which lack a systematic consideration of reality. This review serves to provide guidance on how to identify and apply patterns following a POM approach in ABMs (POM-ABMs), specifically addressing: where in the ecological hierarchy can we find patterns; what kinds of patterns are useful; how should simulations and observations be compared; and when in the modelling cycle are patterns used? The guidance and examples provided herein are intended to encourage the application of POM and inspire efficient identification and implementation of patterns for both new and experienced modellers alike. Additionally, by generalising patterns found especially useful for POM-ABM development, these guidelines provide practical help for the identification of data gaps and guide the collection of observations useful for the development and verification of predictive models. Improving the accessibility and explicitness of POM could facilitate the production of robust and structurally realistic models in the ecological community, contributing to the advancement of predictive ecology at large.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cara A Gallagher
- Department of Plant Ecology and Conservation Biology, University of Potsdam, Am Mühlenberg 3, Potsdam, 14469, Germany.,Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Frederiksborgvej 399, Roskilde, 4000
| | - Magda Chudzinska
- Sea Mammal Research Unit, Scottish Oceans Institute, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, KY16 9ST, U.K
| | - Angela Larsen-Gray
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 250 N. Mills St., Madison, WI, 53706, U.S.A
| | | | - Sarah N Sells
- Montana Cooperative Wildlife Research Unit, The University of Montana, 205 Natural Sciences, Missoula, MT, 59812, U.S.A
| | - Patrick J C White
- School of Applied Sciences, Edinburgh Napier University, 9 Sighthill Ct., Edinburgh, EH11 4BN, U.K
| | - Uta Berger
- Institute of Forest Growth and Computer Science, Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden, 01062, Germany
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Kruse S, Kolmogorov AI, Pestryakova LA, Herzschuh U. Long-lived larch clones may conserve adaptations that could restrict treeline migration in northern Siberia. Ecol Evol 2020; 10:10017-10030. [PMID: 33005360 PMCID: PMC7520212 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.6660] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/02/2020] [Revised: 07/17/2020] [Accepted: 07/20/2020] [Indexed: 11/08/2022] Open
Abstract
The occurrence of refugia beyond the arctic treeline and genetic adaptation therein play a crucial role of largely unknown effect size. While refugia have potential for rapidly colonizing the tundra under global warming, the taxa may be maladapted to the new environmental conditions. Understanding the genetic composition and age of refugia is thus crucial for predicting any migration response. Here, we genotype 194 larch individuals from an ~1.8 km2 area in northcentral Siberia on the southern Taimyr Peninsula by applying an assay of 16 nuclear microsatellite markers. For estimating the age of clonal individuals, we counted tree rings at sections along branches to establish a lateral growth rate that was then combined with geographic distance. Findings reveal that the predominant reproduction type is clonal (58.76%) by short distance spreading of ramets. One outlier of clones 1 km apart could have been dispersed by reindeer. In clonal groups and within individuals, we find that somatic mutations accumulate with geographic distance. Clonal groups of two or more individuals are observed. Clonal age estimates regularly suggest individuals as old as 2,200 years, which coincides with a major environmental change that forced a treeline retreat in the region. We conclude that individuals with clonal growth mode were naturally selected as it lowers the likely risk of extinction under a harsh environment. We discuss this legacy from the past that might now be a maladaptation and hinder expansion under currently strongly increasing temperatures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Stefan Kruse
- Polar Terrestrial Environmental SystemsAlfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine ResearchPotsdamGermany
| | - Aleksey I. Kolmogorov
- Institute of Natural SciencesNorth‐Eastern Federal University of YakutskYakutskRussia
| | | | - Ulrike Herzschuh
- Polar Terrestrial Environmental SystemsAlfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine ResearchPotsdamGermany
- Institute of Environmental Sciences and GeographyUniversity of PotsdamPotsdamGermany
- Institute of Biology and BiochemistryUniversity of PotsdamPotsdamGermany
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Zhang J, Dennis TE, Landers TJ, Bell E, Perry GL. Linking individual-based and statistical inferential models in movement ecology: A case study with black petrels ( Procellaria parkinsoni ). Ecol Modell 2017. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2017.07.017] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
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7
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Dokter AM, van Loon EE, Rappoldt C, Oosterbeek K, Baptist MJ, Bouten W, Ens BJ. Balancing food and density-dependence in the spatial distribution of an interference-prone forager. OIKOS 2017. [DOI: 10.1111/oik.04139] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Adriaan M. Dokter
- Computational Geo-Ecology, Inst. for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, Univ. of Amsterdam, Science Park 904; Amsterdam the Netherlands
- Centre for Avian Migration and Demography, Dept of Animal Ecology, Netherlands Inst. of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW); Wageningen the Netherlands
| | - E. Emiel van Loon
- Computational Geo-Ecology, Inst. for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, Univ. of Amsterdam, Science Park 904; Amsterdam the Netherlands
| | | | - Kees Oosterbeek
- Sovon Dutch Centre for Field Ornithology, Coastal Ecology Team, Den Burg; Texel the Netherlands
| | - Martin J. Baptist
- Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen Marine Research; Den Helder the Netherlands
| | - Willem Bouten
- Computational Geo-Ecology, Inst. for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, Univ. of Amsterdam, Science Park 904; Amsterdam the Netherlands
| | - Bruno J. Ens
- Sovon Dutch Centre for Field Ornithology, Coastal Ecology Team, Den Burg; Texel the Netherlands
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VanderWaal K, Enns EA, Picasso C, Alvarez J, Perez A, Fernandez F, Gil A, Craft M, Wells S. Optimal surveillance strategies for bovine tuberculosis in a low-prevalence country. Sci Rep 2017; 7:4140. [PMID: 28646151 PMCID: PMC5482878 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-017-04466-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/22/2016] [Accepted: 05/16/2017] [Indexed: 12/03/2022] Open
Abstract
Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is a chronic disease of cattle that is difficult to control and eradicate in part due to the costly nature of surveillance and poor sensitivity of diagnostic tests. Like many countries, bTB prevalence in Uruguay has gradually declined to low levels due to intensive surveillance and control efforts over the past decades. In low prevalence settings, broad-based surveillance strategies based on routine testing may not be the most cost-effective way for controlling between-farm bTB transmission, while targeted surveillance aimed at high-risk farms may be more efficient for this purpose. To investigate the efficacy of targeted surveillance, we developed an integrated within- and between-farm bTB transmission model utilizing data from Uruguay's comprehensive animal movement database. A genetic algorithm was used to fit uncertain parameter values, such as the animal-level sensitivity of skin testing and slaughter inspection, to observed bTB epidemiological data. Of ten alternative surveillance strategies evaluated, a strategy based on eliminating testing in low-risk farms resulted in a 40% reduction in sampling effort without increasing bTB incidence. These results can inform the design of more cost-effective surveillance programs to detect and control bTB in Uruguay and other countries with low bTB prevalence.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kimberly VanderWaal
- Department of Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, 1365 Gortner Avenue, St. Paul, MN, 55108, USA.
| | - Eva A Enns
- Division of Health Policy and Management, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, 420 Delaware Street SE, MMC 729, Minneapolis, MN, 55455, USA
| | - Catalina Picasso
- Department of Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, 1365 Gortner Avenue, St. Paul, MN, 55108, USA
| | - Julio Alvarez
- Department of Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, 1365 Gortner Avenue, St. Paul, MN, 55108, USA
| | - Andres Perez
- Department of Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, 1365 Gortner Avenue, St. Paul, MN, 55108, USA
| | - Federico Fernandez
- Animal Health Bureau, Ministry of Livestock, Agriculture, and Fisheries, 1476 Constituyente, Montevideo, 11200, Uruguay
| | - Andres Gil
- Facultad de Veterinaria, Universidad de la Republica, 1550 Alberto Lasplaces, Montevideo, 11100, Uruguay
| | - Meggan Craft
- Department of Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, 1365 Gortner Avenue, St. Paul, MN, 55108, USA
| | - Scott Wells
- Department of Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, 1365 Gortner Avenue, St. Paul, MN, 55108, USA
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Camarero JJ, Linares JC, García-Cervigón AI, Batllori E, Martínez I, Gutiérrez E. Back to the Future: The Responses of Alpine Treelines to Climate Warming are Constrained by the Current Ecotone Structure. Ecosystems 2016. [DOI: 10.1007/s10021-016-0046-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 35] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/20/2022]
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10
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Treeline dynamics in Siberia under changing climates as inferred from an individual-based model for Larix. Ecol Modell 2016. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.08.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 28] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/21/2022]
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11
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van der Vaart E, Johnston AS, Sibly RM. Predicting how many animals will be where: How to build, calibrate and evaluate individual-based models. Ecol Modell 2016. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.08.012] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/23/2022]
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12
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van der Vaart E, Beaumont MA, Johnston AS, Sibly RM. Calibration and evaluation of individual-based models using Approximate Bayesian Computation. Ecol Modell 2015. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.05.020] [Citation(s) in RCA: 40] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/23/2022]
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13
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May F, Huth A, Wiegand T. Moving beyond abundance distributions: neutral theory and spatial patterns in a tropical forest. Proc Biol Sci 2015; 282:20141657. [PMID: 25631991 PMCID: PMC4344136 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2014.1657] [Citation(s) in RCA: 85] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/04/2014] [Accepted: 12/23/2014] [Indexed: 11/26/2022] Open
Abstract
Assessing the relative importance of different processes that determine the spatial distribution of species and the dynamics in highly diverse plant communities remains a challenging question in ecology. Previous modelling approaches often focused on single aggregated forest diversity patterns that convey limited information on the underlying dynamic processes. Here, we use recent advances in inference for stochastic simulation models to evaluate the ability of a spatially explicit and spatially continuous neutral model to quantitatively predict six spatial and non-spatial patterns observed at the 50 ha tropical forest plot on Barro Colorado Island, Panama. The patterns capture different aspects of forest dynamics and biodiversity structure, such as annual mortality rate, species richness, species abundance distribution, beta-diversity and the species-area relationship (SAR). The model correctly predicted each pattern independently and up to five patterns simultaneously. However, the model was unable to match the SAR and beta-diversity simultaneously. Our study moves previous theory towards a dynamic spatial theory of biodiversity and demonstrates the value of spatial data to identify ecological processes. This opens up new avenues to evaluate the consequences of additional process for community assembly and dynamics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Felix May
- Department of Ecological Modelling, Helmholtz-Centre for Environmental Research-UFZ, Permoserstraße 15, Leipzig 04318, Germany
| | - Andreas Huth
- Department of Ecological Modelling, Helmholtz-Centre for Environmental Research-UFZ, Permoserstraße 15, Leipzig 04318, Germany
| | - Thorsten Wiegand
- Department of Ecological Modelling, Helmholtz-Centre for Environmental Research-UFZ, Permoserstraße 15, Leipzig 04318, Germany
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14
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Pattern-oriented parameterization of general models for ecological application: Towards realistic evaluations of management approaches. Ecol Modell 2014. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.12.009] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/20/2022]
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15
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Anadón JD, Wiegand T, Giménez A. Individual-based movement models reveals sex-biased effects of landscape fragmentation on animal movement. Ecosphere 2012. [DOI: 10.1890/es11-00237.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
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16
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Grimm V, Railsback SF. Pattern-oriented modelling: a 'multi-scope' for predictive systems ecology. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2012; 367:298-310. [PMID: 22144392 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2011.0180] [Citation(s) in RCA: 202] [Impact Index Per Article: 16.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Modern ecology recognizes that modelling systems across scales and at multiple levels-especially to link population and ecosystem dynamics to individual adaptive behaviour-is essential for making the science predictive. 'Pattern-oriented modelling' (POM) is a strategy for doing just this. POM is the multi-criteria design, selection and calibration of models of complex systems. POM starts with identifying a set of patterns observed at multiple scales and levels that characterize a system with respect to the particular problem being modelled; a model from which the patterns emerge should contain the right mechanisms to address the problem. These patterns are then used to (i) determine what scales, entities, variables and processes the model needs, (ii) test and select submodels to represent key low-level processes such as adaptive behaviour, and (iii) find useful parameter values during calibration. Patterns are already often used in these ways, but a mini-review of applications of POM confirms that making the selection and use of patterns more explicit and rigorous can facilitate the development of models with the right level of complexity to understand ecological systems and predict their response to novel conditions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Volker Grimm
- Department of Ecological Modelling, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Permoserstrasse 15, 04318 Leipzig, Germany.
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17
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Cipriotti PA, Aguiar MR, Wiegand T, Paruelo JM. Understanding the long-term spatial dynamics of a semiarid grass-shrub steppe through inverse parameterization for simulation models. OIKOS 2012. [DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0706.2012.20317.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
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19
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Hartig F, Calabrese JM, Reineking B, Wiegand T, Huth A. Statistical inference for stochastic simulation models - theory and application. Ecol Lett 2011; 14:816-27. [DOI: 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2011.01640.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 269] [Impact Index Per Article: 20.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
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