Floristic Richness in a Mediterranean Hotspot: A Journey across Italy

Species richness is a fundamental property of biodiversity patterns and is properly expressed by the species-area relationship (SAR), namely the increase in the number of species with the area. Here, we studied and explored the species-area relationship with respect to vascular plant species in Italy and compared vascular plant richness among Italian administrative regions. Concerning the entire vascular flora (native and alien), the best-performing formula is the Arrhenius' Power function: S = c Az. The constants of this function are c = 241.2 and z = 0.281. The best-performing formula concerning just native (c = 245.2 and z = 0.263) and alien (c = 10.1 and z = 0.404) richness is the Power function as well. The floristically richest Italian regions considering the entire flora are Liguria, Friuli Venezia Giulia, and Trentino-Alto Adige, which are also the regions that are richest in alien flora unfortunately. Regions of particular naturalistic interest are Abruzzo, Valle d'Aosta, and Molise, because only these three regions exhibit native floristic richness that is higher than expected, and this is coupled with an alien floristic richness that is lower than expected. On the contrary, four regions (Lombardia, Veneto, Toscana, and Emilia-Romagna) show potentially severe conservation problems due to biological invasions since they experience native floristic richness that is lower than expected, with an alien floristic richness that is higher than expected. This study offers for the first time the 'c' and 'z' constants specifically calibrated at the national level for Italian vascular flora. The availability of such constants allows the calculation of the number of expected species for a given area to be investigated, providing a robust starting hypothesis for floristic studies.

Area, isolation and climate explain the diversity of mammals on islands worldwide

Insular biodiversity is expected to be regulated differently than continental biota, but their determinants remain to be quantified at a global scale. We evaluated the importance of physical, environmental and historical factors on mammal richness and endemism across 5592 islands worldwide. We fitted generalized linear and mixed models to accommodate variation among biogeographic realms and performed analyses separately for bats and non-volants. Richness on islands ranged from one to 234 species, with up to 177 single island endemics. Diversity patterns were most consistently influenced by the islands' physical characteristics. Area positively affected mammal diversity, in particular the number of non-volant endemics. Island isolation, both current and past, was associated with lower richness but greater endemism. Flight capacity modified the relative importance of past versus current isolation, with bats responding more strongly to current and non-volant mammals to past isolation. Biodiversity relationships with environmental factors were idiosyncratic, with a tendency for greater effects sizes with endemism than richness. The historical climatic change was positively associated with endemism. In line with theory, we found that area and isolation were among the strongest drivers of mammalian biodiversity. Our results support the importance of past conditions on current patterns, particularly of non-volant species.

Soil fungal diversity and community assembly: affected by island size or type?

Fungi have a huge biodiversity and play important roles in soil biogeochemical cycling in island ecosystems. Although island biogeography has been widely studied for macroorganisms, fungal community assembly in true islands and its relationship with island area are less documented. We examined soil fungal communities in 18 oceanic islands of two types (eight non-coral islands and 10 coral islands) using the Illumina MiSeq sequencing technique. Our results showed that fungal α-diversity (species richness) was substantially different among the oceanic islands, with a higher value in non-coral islands than in coral islands. Fungal α-diversity was significantly affected by soil potassium and magnesium (Mg) and plant communities in non-coral islands, whereas only soil Mg significantly affected it in coral islands. Soil fungal community composition was significantly different in the non-coral and coral islands and was influenced by soil property, plant community and spatial distance. The ecological stochasticity model showed that the fungal community assembly was mainly governed by deterministic processes regardless of island type. Fungal β-diversity, but not α-diversity, increased significantly with increasing island area. These findings have implications for the better prediction of soil fungal community dynamics in island systems and biodiversity conservation in fragmented habitats.

The spatial scaling of food web structure across European biogeographical regions

The species-area relationship (SAR) is one of the most well-established scaling patterns in ecology. Its implications for understanding how communities change across spatial gradients are numerous, including the effects of habitat loss on biodiversity. However, ecological communities are not mere collections of species. They are the result of interactions between these species forming complex networks that tie them together. Should we aim to grasp the spatial scaling of biodiversity as a whole, it is fundamental to understand the changes in the structure of interaction networks with area. In spite of a few empirical and theoretical studies that address this challenge, we still do not know much about how network structure changes with area, or what are the main environmental drivers of these changes. Here, using the meta-network of potential interactions between all terrestrial vertebrates in Europe (1140 species and 67 201 feeding interactions), we analysed network-area relationships (NARs) that summarize how network properties scale with area. We do this across ten biogeographical regions, which differ in environmental characteristics. We found that the spatial scaling of network complexity strongly varied across biogeographical regions. However, once the variation in SARs was accounted for, differences in the shape of NARs vanished. On the other hand, the proportion of species across trophic levels remained remarkably constant across biogeographical regions and spatial scales, despite the great variation in species richness. Spatial variation in mean annual temperature and habitat clustering were the main environmental determinants of the shape of both SARs and NARs across Europe. Our results suggest new avenues in the exploration of the effects of environmental factors on the spatial scaling of biodiversity. We argue that NARs can provide new insights to analyse and understand ecological communities.

Lack of definition of mathematical terms in ecology: The case of the sigmoid class of functions in macro-ecology

Defining mathematical terms and objects is a constant issue in ecology; often definitions are absent, erroneous, or imprecise. Through a bibliographic prospection, we show that this problem appears in macro-ecology (biogeography and community ecology) where the lack of definition for the sigmoid class of functions results in difficulties of interpretation and communication. In order to solve this problem and to help harmonize papers that use sigmoid functions in ecology, herein we propose a comprehensive definition of these mathematical objects. In addition, to facilitate their use, we classified the functions often used in the ecological literature, specifying the constraints on the parameters for the function to be defined and the curve shape to be sigmoidal. Finally, we interpreted the different properties of the functions induced by the definition through ecological hypotheses in order to support and explain the interest of such functions in ecology and more precisely in biogeography.

Microbial Species-Area Relationships in Antarctic Cryoconite Holes Depend on Productivity

The island species-area relationship (ISAR) is a positive association between the number of species and the area of an isolated, island-like habitat. ISARs are ubiquitous across domains of life, yet the processes generating ISARs remain poorly understood, particularly for microbes. Larger and more productive islands are hypothesized to have more species because they support larger populations of each species and thus reduce the probability of stochastic extinctions in small population sizes. Here, we disentangled the effects of "island" size and productivity on the ISAR of Antarctic cryoconite holes. We compared the species richness of bacteria and microbial eukaryotes on two glaciers that differ in their productivity across varying hole sizes. We found that cryoconite holes on the more productive Canada Glacier gained more species with increasing hole area than holes on the less productive Taylor Glacier. Within each glacier, neither productivity nor community evenness explained additional variation in the ISAR. Our results are, therefore, consistent with productivity shaping microbial ISARs at broad scales. More comparisons of microbial ISARs across environments with limited confounding factors, such as cryoconite holes, and experimental manipulations within these systems will further contribute to our understanding of the processes shaping microbial biogeography.

Beetle Species-Area Relationships and Extinction Rates in Protected Areas

The species-area relationship (SAR, i.e., the increase in species richness with area) is one of the most general ecological patterns. SARs can be used to calculate expected extinction rates following area (habitat) loss. Here, using data from Italian reserves, extinction rates were calculated for beetle groups with different feeding habits: Carabidae (terrestrial predators), Hydradephaga (aquatic predators), coprophagous Scarabaeoidea (dung feeders), phytophagous Scarabaeoidea (herbivores), and Tenebrionidae (detritivores). The importance of other factors besides area (namely latitude and elevation) was investigated. Reserve area was recovered as an important predictor of species richness in all cases. For Carabidae, Hydradephaga, and Tenebrionidae, elevation exerted a negative influence, whereas latitude had a negative influence on coprophagous Scarabaeoidea and Tenebrionidae, as a consequence of current and historical biogeographical factors. Extinction rates were higher for dung beetles, due to their dependence on large grazing areas, and Tenebrionidae, due to their low dispersal capabilities. The lower extinction rates predicted for Carabidae, phytophagous Scarabaeoidea, and Hydradephaga can be explained by their higher dispersal power. If other variables besides area are considered, extinction rates became more similar among groups. Extinction rates by area loss are always relatively low. Thus, in reserves with few species, many local extinctions might be unnoticed.

Species-area relationships in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands emerge because rarer species are disproportionately favored on larger islands

The island species-area relationship (ISAR) describes how the number of species increases with increasing size of an island (or island-like habitat), and is of fundamental importance in island biogeography and conservation. Here, we use a framework based on individual-based rarefaction to infer whether ISARs result from passive sampling, or whether some processes are acting beyond sampling (e.g., disproportionate effects and/or habitat heterogeneity). Using data on total and relative abundances of four taxa (birds, butterflies, amphibians, and reptiles) from multiple islands in the Andaman and Nicobar archipelago, we examine how different metrics of biodiversity (total species richness, rarefied species richness, and abundance-weighted effective numbers of species emphasizing common species) vary with island area. Total species richness increased for all taxa, as did rarefied species richness controlling for a given sampling effort. This indicates that the ISAR did not result because of passive sampling, but that instead, some species were disproportionately favored on larger islands. For birds, frogs, and lizards, this disproportionate effect was only associated with species that were rarer in the samples, but for butterflies, both more common and rarer species were affected. Furthermore, for the two taxa for which we had plot-level data (reptiles and amphibians), within-island β-diversity did not increase with island size, suggesting that within-island compositional effects were unlikely to be driving these ISARs. Overall, our results indicate that the ISARs of these taxa are most likely driven by disproportionate effects, that is, where larger islands are important sources of biodiversity beyond a simple sampling expectation, especially through their influence on rarer species, thus emphasizing their role in the preservation and conservation of species.

A global model of island species-area relationships

The increase in species richness with island area (ISAR) is a well-established global pattern, commonly described by the power model, the parameters of which are hypothesized to vary with system isolation and to be indicative of ecological process regimes. We tested a structural equation model of ISAR parameter variation as a function of taxon, isolation, and archipelago configuration, using a globally distributed dataset of 151 ISARs encompassing a range of taxa and archipelago types. The resulting models revealed a negative relationship between ISAR intercept and slope as a function of archipelago species richness, in turn shaped by taxon differences and by the amount and disposition of archipelago area. These results suggest that local-scale (intra-archipelago) processes have a substantial role in determining ISAR form, obscuring the diversity patterns predicted by island theory as a function of archipelago isolation. These findings have implications for the use and interpretation of ISARs as a tool within biogeography, ecology, and conservation.

Spatial, Temporal, and Phylogenetic Scales of Microbial Ecology

Microbial communities play a major role in disease, biogeochemical cycling, agriculture, and bioremediation. However, identifying the ecological processes that govern microbial community assembly and disentangling the relative impacts of those processes has proven challenging. Here, we propose that this discord is due to microbial systems being studied at different spatial, temporal, and phylogenetic scales. We argue that different processes dominate at different scales, and that through a more explicit consideration of spatial, temporal, and phylogenetic grains and extents (the two components of scale) a more accurate, clear, and useful understanding of microbial community assembly can be developed. We demonstrate the value of applying ecological concepts of scale to microbiology, specifically examining their application to nestedness, legacy effects, and taxa-area relationships of microbial systems. These proposed considerations of scale will help resolve long-standing debates in microbial ecology regarding the processes determining the assembly of microbial communities, and provide organizing principles around which hypotheses and theories can be developed.

A global synthesis of the small-island effect in habitat islands

Habitat loss and fragmentation are considered to be the leading drivers of biodiversity loss. The small-island effect (SIE) can be used to predict species extinctions resulting from habitat loss and has important implications for species conservation. However, to date, no study has explicitly evaluated the prevalence of SIEs in habitat islands. Here, we compiled 90 global datasets to systematically investigate the prevalence and underlying factors determining the ubiquity of SIEs in habitat island systems. Among the 90 datasets, SIEs were unambiguously detected in 36 cases. We found significant effects of habitat island types and taxon groups on the threshold area of SIEs. The number of islands, area range, species range, island type and taxon group were key variables that determined the prevalence of SIEs. Our study demonstrates that SIEs occur in 40% of cases and thus are common in habitat islands. We conclude that conservation biologists and applied ecologists should consider the prevalence of SIEs when making management strategies in fragmented landscapes.

DAR (diversity-area relationship): Extending classic SAR (species-area relationship) for biodiversity and biogeography analyses

I extend the classic SAR, which has achieved status of ecological law and plays a critical role in global biodiversity and biogeography analyses, to general DAR (diversity-area relationship). The extension was aimed to remedy a serious application limitation of the traditional SAR that only addressed one aspect of biodiversity scaling-species richness scaling over space, but ignoring species abundance information. The extension was further inspired by a recent consensus that Hill numbers offer the most appropriate measures for alpha-diversity and multiplicative beta-diversity. In particular, Hill numbers are essentially a series of Renyi's entropy values weighted differently along the rare-common-dominant spectrum of species abundance distribution and are in the units of effective number of species (or species equivalents such as OTUs). I therefore postulate that Hill numbers should follow the same or similar law of the traditional SAR. I test the postulation with the American gut microbiome project (AGP) dataset of 1,473 healthy North American individuals. I further propose three new concepts and develop their statistical estimation formulae based on the new DAR extension, including: (i) DAR profile-z-q relationship (DAR scaling parameter z at different diversity order q), (ii) PDO (pair-wise diversity overlap) profile-g-q relationship (PDO parameter g at order q, and (iii) MAD (maximal accrual diversity: D max) profile-D max-q. While the classic SAR is a special case of our new DAR profile, the PDO and MAD profiles offer novel tools for analyzing biodiversity (including alpha-diversity and beta-diversity) and biogeography over space.

Are dominant plant species more susceptible to leaf-mining insects? A case study at Saihanwula Nature Reserve, China

Dominant species significantly affect interspecific relationships, community structure, and ecosystem function. In the field, dominant species are often identified by their high importance values. Selective foraging on dominant species is a common phenomenon in ecology. Our hypothesis is that dominant plant groups with high importance values are more susceptible to leaf-mining insects at the regional level. Here, we used the Saihanwula National Nature Reserve as a case study to examine the presence-absence patterns of leaf-mining insects on different plants in a forest-grassland ecotone in Northeast China. We identified the following patterns: (1) After phylogenetic correction, plants with high importance values are more likely to host leafminers at the species, genus, or family level. (2) Other factors including phylogenetic isolation, life form, water ecotype, and phytogeographical type of plants have different influences on the relationship between plant dominance and leafminer presence. In summary, the importance value is a valid predictor of the presence of consumers, even when we consider the effects of plant phylogeny and other plant attributes. Dominant plant groups are large and susceptible targets of leaf-mining insects. The consistent leaf-mining distribution pattern across different countries, vegetation types, and plant taxa can be explained by the "species-area relationship" or the "plant apparency hypothesis."

The small-island effect in amphibian assemblages on subtropical land-bridge islands of an inundated lake

The small-island effect (SIE) has become more and more part of the theoretical framework of island biogeography and biodiversity research. However, previous methods for the detection of SIEs are often flawed in one way or another, including not accounting for model complexity, not comparing all relevant models, and not including islands with no species. Therefore, the existence and the prevalence of the SIE may be dubious. In this study, after controlling for all these methodological shortcomings, we tested for the existence of the SIE in amphibian assemblages on subtropical land-bridge islands created by the inundation of the Thousand Island Lake, China. We used the line transect method to determine the distribution of amphibian assemblages on 23 study islands during 3 breeding seasons from 2009 to 2011. To evaluate whether an SIE exists in amphibian assemblages, we compared the fit of a simple linearized power model with two most widely used breakpoint regression models. The information-theoretic multimodel inference approach based on Akaike's information criterion identified the left-horizontal SIE model as the best single model. Thus, we found strong evidence for the existence of an SIE in our system. The upper limit of the SIE for amphibian assemblages was 39.95 ha. Below this threshold area, amphibian richness varied independently of island size. The SIE in amphibian assemblages may be due to episodic disturbances, stochastic events, and nutrient subsidies from the lake. Our results indicate that all the islands >39.95 ha should be protected for the effective conservation of amphibian assemblages in our system.

The relationship between the spatial scaling of biodiversity and ecosystem stability

AIM

Ecosystem stability and its link with biodiversity have mainly been studied at the local scale. Here we present a simple theoretical model to address the joint dependence of diversity and stability on spatial scale, from local to continental.

METHODS

The notion of stability we use is based on the temporal variability of an ecosystem-level property, such as primary productivity. In this way, our model integrates the well-known species-area relationship (SAR) with a recent proposal to quantify the spatial scaling of stability, called the invariability-area relationship (IAR).

RESULTS

We show that the link between the two relationships strongly depends on whether the temporal fluctuations of the ecosystem property of interest are more correlated within than between species. If fluctuations are correlated within species but not between them, then the IAR is strongly constrained by the SAR. If instead individual fluctuations are only correlated by spatial proximity, then the IAR is unrelated to the SAR. We apply these two correlation assumptions to explore the effects of species loss and habitat destruction on stability, and find a rich variety of multi-scale spatial dependencies, with marked differences between the two assumptions.

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

The dependence of ecosystem stability on biodiversity across spatial scales is governed by the spatial decay of correlations within and between species. Our work provides a point of reference for mechanistic models and data analyses. More generally, it illustrates the relevance of macroecology for ecosystem functioning and stability.

Extinction debt from climate change for frogs in the wet tropics

The effect of twenty-first-century climate change on biodiversity is commonly forecast based on modelled shifts in species ranges, linked to habitat suitability. These projections have been coupled with species-area relationships (SAR) to infer extinction rates indirectly as a result of the loss of climatically suitable areas and associated habitat. This approach does not model population dynamics explicitly, and so accepts that extinctions might occur after substantial (but unknown) delays-an extinction debt. Here we explicitly couple bioclimatic envelope models of climate and habitat suitability with generic life-history models for 24 species of frogs found in the Australian Wet Tropics (AWT). We show that (i) as many as four species of frogs face imminent extinction by 2080, due primarily to climate change; (ii) three frogs face delayed extinctions; and (iii) this extinction debt will take at least a century to be realized in full. Furthermore, we find congruence between forecast rates of extinction using SARs, and demographic models with an extinction lag of 120 years. We conclude that SAR approaches can provide useful advice to conservation on climate change impacts, provided there is a good understanding of the time lags over which delayed extinctions are likely to occur.

Functional redundancy modifies species-area relationship for freshwater phytoplankton

Although species–area relationship (SAR) is among the most extensively studied patterns in ecology, studies on aquatic and/or microbial systems are seriously underrepresented in the literature. We tested the algal SAR in lakes, pools and ponds of various sizes (10⁻²–10⁸ m²) and similar hydromorphological and trophic characteristics using species‐specific data and functional groups. Besides the expectation that species richness increases monotonously with area, we found a right‐skewed hump‐shaped relationship between the area and phytoplankton species richness. Functional richness however did not show such distortion. Differences between the area dependence of species and functional richness indicate that functional redundancy is responsible for the unusual hump‐backed SAR. We demonstrated that the Small Island Effect, which is a characteristic for macroscopic SARs can also be observed for the phytoplankton. Our results imply a so‐called large lake effect, which means that in case of large lakes, wind‐induced mixing acts strongly against the habitat diversity and development of phytoplankton patchiness and finally results in lower phytoplankton species richness in the pelagial. High functional redundancy of the groups that prefer small‐scale heterogeneity of the habitats is responsible for the unusual humpback relationship. The results lead us to conclude that although the mechanisms that regulate the richness of both microbial communities and communities of macroscopic organisms are similar, their importance can be different in micro‐ and macroscales.

Quantifying and sustaining biodiversity in tropical agricultural landscapes

Decision-makers increasingly seek scientific guidance on investing in nature, but biodiversity remains difficult to estimate across diverse landscapes. Here, we develop empirically based models for quantifying biodiversity across space. We focus on agricultural lands in the tropical forest biome, wherein lies the greatest potential to conserve or lose biodiversity. We explore two questions, drawing from empirical research oriented toward pioneering policies in Costa Rica. First, can remotely sensed tree cover serve as a reliable basis for improved estimation of biodiversity, from plots to regions? Second, how does tropical biodiversity change across the land-use gradient from native forest to deforested cropland and pasture? We report on understory plants, nonflying mammals, bats, birds, reptiles, and amphibians. Using data from 67,737 observations of 908 species, we test how tree cover influences biodiversity across space. First, we find that fine-scale mapping of tree cover predicts biodiversity within a taxon-specific radius (of 30-70 m) about a point in the landscape. Second, nearly 50% of the tree cover in our study region is embedded in countryside forest elements, small (typically 0.05-100 ha) clusters or strips of trees on private property. Third, most species use multiple habitat types, including crop fields and pastures (to which 15% of species are restricted), although some taxa depend on forest (57% of species are restricted to forest elements). Our findings are supported by comparisons of 90 studies across Latin America. They provide a basis for a planning tool that guides investments in tropical forest biodiversity similar to those for securing ecosystem services.

Species-area relationships and additive partitioning of diversity of native and nonnative herpetofauna of the West Indies

To evaluate the regional biogeographical patterns of West Indian native and nonnative herpetofauna, we derived and updated data on the presence/absence of all herpetofauna in this region from the recently published reviews. We divided the records into 24 taxonomic groups and classified each species as native or nonnative at each locality. For each taxonomic group and in aggregate, we then assessed the following: (1) multiple species-area relationship (SAR) models; (2) C- and Z-values, typically interpreted to represent insularity or dispersal ability; and (3) the average diversity of islands, among-island heterogeneity, γ-diversity, and the contribution of area effect toward explaining among-island heterogeneity using additive diversity partitioning approach. We found the following: (1) SARs were best modeled using the Cumulative Weibull and Lomolino relationships; (2) the Cumulative Weibull and Lomolino regressions displayed both convex and sigmoid curves; and (3) the Cumulative Weibull regressions were more conservative than Lomolino at displaying sigmoid curves within the range of island size studied. The Z-value of all herpetofauna was overestimated by Darlington (Zoogeography: The geographic distribution of animals, John Wiley, New York, 1957), and Z-values were ranked: (1) native > nonnative; (2) reptiles > amphibians; (3) snake > lizard > frog > turtle > crocodilian; and (4) increased from lower- to higher-level taxonomic groups. Additive diversity partitioning showed that area had a weaker effect on explaining the among-island heterogeneity for nonnative species than for native species. Our findings imply that the flexibility of Cumulative Weibull and Lomolino has been underappreciated in the literature. Z-value is an average of different slopes from different scales and could be artificially overestimated due to oversampling islands of intermediate to large size. Lower extinction rate, higher colonization, and more in situ speciation could contribute to high richness of native species on large islands, enlarging area effect on explaining the between-island heterogeneity for native species, whereas economic isolation on large islands could decrease the predicted richness, lowering the area effect for nonnative species. For most of the small islands less affected by human activities, extinction and dispersal limitation are the primary processes producing low species richness pattern, which decreases the overall average diversity with a large among-island heterogeneity corresponding to the high value of this region as a biodiversity hotspot.

Predictors of shell size in long-lived lake gastropods

AIM

To investigate shell size variation among gastropod faunas of fossil and recent long-lived European lakes and discuss potential underlying processes.

LOCATION

Twenty-three long-lived lakes of the Miocene to Recent of Europe.

METHODS

Based on a dataset of 1412 species of both fossil and extant lacustrine gastropods, we assessed differences in shell size in terms of characteristics of the faunas (species richness, degree of endemism, differences in family composition) and the lakes (surface area, latitude and longitude of lake centroid, distance to closest neighbouring lake) using multiple and linear regression models. Because of a strong species-area relationship, we used resampling to determine whether any observed correlation is driven by that relationship.

RESULTS

The regression models indicated size range expansion rather than unidirectional increase or decrease as the dominant pattern of size evolution. The multiple regression models for size range and maximum and minimum size were statistically significant, while the model with mean size was not. Individual contributions and linear regressions indicated species richness and lake surface area as best predictors for size changes. Resampling analysis revealed no significant effects of species richness on the observed patterns. The correlations are comparable across families of different size classes, suggesting a general pattern.

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

Among the chosen variables, species richness and lake surface area are the most robust predictors of shell size in long-lived lake gastropods. Although the most outstanding and attractive examples for size evolution in lacustrine gastropods come from lakes with extensive durations, shell size appears to be independent of the duration of the lake as well as longevity of a species. The analogue of long-lived lakes as 'evolutionary islands' does not hold for developments of shell size because different sets of parameters predict size changes.

Do abundance distributions and species aggregation correctly predict macroecological biodiversity patterns in tropical forests?

AIM

It has been recently suggested that different 'unified theories of biodiversity and biogeography' can be characterized by three common 'minimal sufficient rules': (1) species abundance distributions follow a hollow curve, (2) species show intraspecific aggregation, and (3) species are independently placed with respect to other species. Here, we translate these qualitative rules into a quantitative framework and assess if these minimal rules are indeed sufficient to predict multiple macroecological biodiversity patterns simultaneously.

LOCATION

Tropical forest plots in Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama, and in Sinharaja, Sri Lanka.

METHODS

We assess the predictive power of the three rules using dynamic and spatial simulation models in combination with census data from the two forest plots. We use two different versions of the model: (1) a neutral model and (2) an extended model that allowed for species differences in dispersal distances. In a first step we derive model parameterizations that correctly represent the three minimal rules (i.e. the model quantitatively matches the observed species abundance distribution and the distribution of intraspecific aggregation). In a second step we applied the parameterized models to predict four additional spatial biodiversity patterns.

RESULTS

Species-specific dispersal was needed to quantitatively fulfil the three minimal rules. The model with species-specific dispersal correctly predicted the species-area relationship, but failed to predict the distance decay, the relationship between species abundances and aggregations, and the distribution of a spatial co-occurrence index of all abundant species pairs. These results were consistent over the two forest plots.

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

The three 'minimal sufficient' rules only provide an incomplete approximation of the stochastic spatial geometry of biodiversity in tropical forests. The assumption of independent interspecific placements is most likely violated in many forests due to shared or distinct habitat preferences. Furthermore, our results highlight missing knowledge about the relationship between species abundances and their aggregation.

'Bigger data' on scale-dependent effects of invasive species on biodiversity cannot overcome confounded analyses: a comment on Stohlgren & Rejmánek (2014)

A recent study by Stohlgren & Rejmánek (SR: Stohlgren TJ, Rejmánek M. 2014 Biol. Lett. 10. (doi:10.1098/rsbl.2013.0939)) purported to test the generality of a recent finding of scale-dependent effects of invasive plants on native diversity; dominant invasive plants decreased the intercept and increased the slope of the species-area relationship. SR (2014) find little correlation between invasive species cover and the slopes and intercepts of SARs across a diversity of sites. We show that the analyses of SR (2014) are inappropriate because of confounding causality.

Moving beyond abundance distributions: neutral theory and spatial patterns in a tropical forest

Assessing the relative importance of different processes that determine the spatial distribution of species and the dynamics in highly diverse plant communities remains a challenging question in ecology. Previous modelling approaches often focused on single aggregated forest diversity patterns that convey limited information on the underlying dynamic processes. Here, we use recent advances in inference for stochastic simulation models to evaluate the ability of a spatially explicit and spatially continuous neutral model to quantitatively predict six spatial and non-spatial patterns observed at the 50 ha tropical forest plot on Barro Colorado Island, Panama. The patterns capture different aspects of forest dynamics and biodiversity structure, such as annual mortality rate, species richness, species abundance distribution, beta-diversity and the species-area relationship (SAR). The model correctly predicted each pattern independently and up to five patterns simultaneously. However, the model was unable to match the SAR and beta-diversity simultaneously. Our study moves previous theory towards a dynamic spatial theory of biodiversity and demonstrates the value of spatial data to identify ecological processes. This opens up new avenues to evaluate the consequences of additional process for community assembly and dynamics.

Deglaciation explains bat extinction in the Caribbean

Ecological factors such as changing climate on land and interspecific competition have been debated as possible causes of postglacial Caribbean extinction. These hypotheses, however, have not been tested against a null model of climate-driven postglacial area loss. Here, we use a new Quaternary mammal database and deep-sea bathymetry to estimate species-area relationships (SARs) at present and during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) for bats of the Caribbean, and to model species loss as a function of area loss from rising sea level. Island area was a significant predictor of species richness in the Bahamas, Greater Antilles, and Lesser Antilles at all time periods, except for the Lesser Antilles during the LGM. Parameters of LGM and current SARs were similar in the Bahamas and Greater Antilles, but not the Lesser Antilles, which had fewer estimated species during the LGM than expected given their size. Estimated postglacial species losses in the Bahamas and Greater Antilles were largely explained by inferred area loss from rising sea level in the Holocene. However, there were more species in the Bahamas at present, and fewer species in the smaller Greater Antilles, than expected given island size and the end-Pleistocene/early Holocene SARs. Poor fossil sampling and ecological factors may explain these departures from the null. Our analyses illustrate the importance of changes in area in explaining patterns of species richness through time and emphasize the role of the SAR as a null hypothesis in explorations of the impact of novel ecological interactions on extinction.

Field theory for biogeography: a spatially explicit model for predicting patterns of biodiversity

Predicting the variation of biodiversity across the surface of the Earth is a fundamental issue in ecology, and in this article we focus on one of the most widely studied spatial biodiversity patterns: the species-area relationship (SAR). The SAR is a central tool in conservation, being used to predict species loss following global climate change, and is striking in its universality throughout different geographical regions and across the tree of life. In this article we draw upon the methods of quantum field theory and the foundation of neutral community ecology to derive the first spatially explicit neutral prediction for the SAR. We find that the SAR has three phases, with a power law increase at intermediate scales, consistent with decades of documented empirical patterns. Our model also provides a building block for incorporating non-neutral biological variation, with the potential to bridge the gap between neutral and niche-based approaches to community assembly.

A general framework for the distance-decay of similarity in ecological communities

Species spatial turnover, or beta-diversity, induces a decay of community similarity with geographic distance known as the distance-decay relationship. Although this relationship is central to biodiversity and biogeography, its theoretical underpinnings remain poorly understood. Here, we develop a general framework to describe how the distance-decay relationship is influenced by population aggregation and the landscape-scale species-abundance distribution. We utilize this general framework and data from three tropical forests to show that rare species have a weak influence on distance-decay curves, and that overall similarity and rates of decay are primarily influenced by species abundances and population aggregation respectively. We illustrate the utility of the framework by deriving an exact analytical expression of the distance-decay relationship when population aggregation is characterized by the Poisson Cluster Process. Our study provides a foundation for understanding the distance-decay relationship, and for predicting and testing patterns of beta-diversity under competing theories in ecology.

A test of the scale-dependence of the species abundance-people correlation for veteran trees in Italy

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The spatial correlation of the presence of people and species has been suggested to be scale-dependent. At local scales, large numbers of people often result in species impoverishment. At coarse scales, species-rich regions tend to be densely inhabited. Recently, broad-scale human presence has been shown to be correlated not only with numbers of species but also with their abundance, as predicted by the more-individuals hypothesis. However, it is not known whether the species abundance-human presence correlation could also be scale-dependent.

METHODS

This hypothesis was tested by use of a database of veteran trees in Italy. Veteran tree species richness and number of individuals were modelled as a function of human population size at two grains of analysis (provinces and regions), controlling for variations in area, latitude and spatial autocorrelation.

KEY RESULTS

A positive correlation was found between human presence and veteran tree species. As predicted, this correlation was stronger at a coarser resolution. However, only at the provincial but not regional level was there a positive correlation between human presence and veteran tree abundance when controlling for area and latitude. These results were confirmed for native and exotic trees.

CONCLUSIONS

The present findings rule out the more-individuals hypothesis as an explanation of the scale-dependence of the species-people correlation for veteran trees in Italy. Potential mechanisms behind the observed spatial coincidence of high numbers of people and veteran tree species are discussed and implications for conservation are highlighted.

How individual species structure diversity in tropical forests

A persistent challenge in ecology is to explain the high diversity of tree species in tropical forests. Although the role of species characteristics in maintaining tree diversity in tropical forests has been the subject of theory and debate for decades, spatial patterns in local diversity have not been analyzed from the viewpoint of individual species. To measure scale-dependent local diversity structures around individual species, we propose individual species-area relationships (ISAR), a spatial statistic that marries common species-area relationships with Ripley's K to measure the expected alpha diversity in circular neighborhoods with variable radius around an arbitrary individual of a target species. We use ISAR to investigate if and at which spatial scales individual species increase in tropical forests' local diversity (accumulators), decrease local diversity (repellers), or behave neutrally. Our analyses of data from Barro Colorado Island (Panama) and Sinharaja (Sri Lanka) reveal that individual species leave identifiable signatures on spatial diversity, but only on small spatial scales. Most species showed neutral behavior outside neighborhoods of 20 m. At short scales (<20 m), we observed, depending on the forest type, two strongly different roles of species: diversity repellers dominated at Barro Colorado Island and accumulators at Sinharaja. Nevertheless, we find that the two tropical forests lacked any key species structuring species diversity at larger scales, suggesting that "balanced" species-species interactions may be a characteristic of these species-rich forests. We anticipate our analysis method will be a starting point for more powerful investigations of spatial structures in diversity to promote a better understanding of biodiversity in tropical forests.

Plant species richness of nature reserves: the interplay of area, climate and habitat in a central European landscape

Aim To detect regional patterns of plant species richness in temperate nature reserves and determine the unbiased effects of environmental variables by mutual correlation with operating factors. Location The Czech Republic. Methods Plant species richness in 302 nature reserves was studied by using 14 explanatory variables reflecting the reserve area, altitude, climate, habitat diversity and prevailing vegetation type. Backward elimination of explanatory variables was used to analyse the data, taking into account their interactive nature, until the model contained only significant terms. Results A minimal adequate model with reserve area, mean altitude, prevailing vegetation type and habitat diversity (expressed as the number of major habitat types in the reserve) accounted for 53.9% of the variance in species number. After removing the area effect, habitat diversity explained 15.6% of variance, while prevailing vegetation type explained 29.6%. After removing the effect of both area and vegetation type, the resulting model explained 10.3% of the variance, indicating that species richness further increased with habitat diversity, and most obviously towards warm districts. After removing the effects of area, habitat diversity and climatic district, the model still explained 9.4% of the variance, and showed that species richness (i) significantly decreased with increasing mean altitude and annual precipitation, and with decreasing January temperature in the region of the mountain flora, and (ii) increased with altitudinal range in regions of temperate and thermophilous flora. Main conclusions We described, in quantitative terms, the effects of the main factors that might be considered to be determining plant species richness in temperate nature reserves, and evaluated their relative importance. The direct habitat effect on species richness was roughly equal to the direct area effect, but the total direct and indirect effects of area slightly exceeded that of habitat. It was shown that the overall effect of composite variables such as altitude or climatic district can be separated into particular climatic variables, which influence the richness of flora in a context-specific manner. The statistical explanation of richness variation at the level of families yielded similar results to that for species, indicating that the system of nature conservation provides similar degrees of protection at different taxonomic levels.