Landscape fragmentation overturns classical metapopulation thinking

Habitat loss and isolation caused by landscape fragmentation represent a growing threat to global biodiversity. Existing theory suggests that the process will lead to a decline in metapopulation viability. However, since most metapopulation models are restricted to simple networks of discrete habitat patches, the effects of real landscape fragmentation, particularly in stochastic environments, are not well understood. To close this major gap in ecological theory, we developed a spatially explicit, individual-based model applicable to realistic landscape structures, bridging metapopulation ecology and landscape ecology. This model reproduced classical metapopulation dynamics under conventional model assumptions, but on fragmented landscapes, it uncovered general dynamics that are in stark contradiction to the prevailing views in the ecological and conservation literature. Notably, fragmentation can give rise to a series of dualities: a) positive and negative responses to environmental noise, b) relative slowdown and acceleration in density decline, and c) synchronization and desynchronization of local population dynamics. Furthermore, counter to common intuition, species that interact locally ("residents") were often more resilient to fragmentation than long-ranging "migrants." This set of findings signals a need to fundamentally reconsider our approach to ecosystem management in a noisy and fragmented world.

Building pondscapes for amphibian metapopulations

The success of ponds constructed to restore ecological infrastructure for pond-breeding amphibians and benefit aquatic biodiversity depends on where and how they are built. We studied effects of pond and landscape characteristics, including connectivity, on metapopulation dynamics of 12 amphibian species in Switzerland. To understand the determinants of long-term occupancy (here summarized as incidence), environmental effects on both colonization and persistence should be considered. We fitted dynamic occupancy models to 20 years of monitoring data on a pond construction program to quantify effects of pond and landscape characteristics and different connectivity metrics on colonization and persistence probabilities in constructed ponds. Connectivity to existing populations explained dynamics better than structural connectivity metrics, and simple metrics (distance to the nearest neighbor population, population density) were useful surrogates for dispersal kernel-weighted metrics commonly used in metapopulation theory. Population connectivity mediated the persistence of conservation target species in new ponds, suggesting source-sink dynamics in newly established populations. Population density captured this effect well and could be used by practitioners for site selection. Ponds created where there were 2-4 occupied ponds within a radius of ∼0.5 km had >3.5 times higher incidence of target species (median) than isolated ponds. Species had individual preferences regarding pond characteristics, but breeding sites with larger (≥100 m2) total water surface area, that temporarily dried, and that were in surroundings with maximally 50% forest benefitted multiple target species. Pond diversity will foster amphibian diversity at the landscape scale.

The emergence of Rocky Mountain spotted fever in the southwestern United States and northern Mexico requires a binational One Health approach

Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) is an international and quintessential One Health problem. This paper synthesizes recent knowledge in One Health, binational RMSF concerns, and veterinary and human medical perspectives to this fatal, reemerging problem. RMSF, a life-threatening tick-borne disease caused by the bacterium Rickettsia rickettsii, emerged during the first decade of the 21st century in impoverished communities in the southwestern US and northern Mexico. Lack of an index of suspicion, delay in diagnosis, and delayed initiation of antibiotic treatment contribute to fatality. Campaigns targeting dog neutering, restraint to residents' properties, and on-dog and on-premises treatment with acaricides temporarily reduce prevalence but are often untenable economically. Contemporary Mexican RMSF is hyperendemic in small communities and cities, whereas epidemics occur in the western US primarily in small tribal communities. In in both locations, the epidemics are fueled by free-roaming dogs and massive brown dog tick populations. In the US, RMSF has a case fatality rate of 5% to 7%; among thousands of annual cases in Mexico, case fatality often exceeds 30%.1,2 Numerous case patients in US border states have recent travel histories to northern Mexico. Veterinarians and physicians should alert the public to RMSF risk, methods of prevention, and the importance of urgent treatment with doxycycline if symptomatic. One Health professionals contribute ideas to manage ticks and rickettsial disease and provide broad education for the public and medical professionals. Novel management approaches include vaccine development and deployment, acaricide resistance monitoring, and modeling to guide targeted dog population management and other interventions.

Limits to species' range: the tension between local and global adaptation

We know that heritable variation is abundant, and that selection causes all but the smallest populations to rapidly shift beyond their original trait distribution. So then, what limits the range of a species? There are physical constraints, and also population genetic limits to the effectiveness of selection, ultimately set by population size. Global adaptation, where the same genotype is favoured over the whole range, is most efficient when based on a multitude of weakly selected alleles, and is effective even when local demes are small, provided that there is some gene flow. In contrast, local adaptation is sensitive to gene flow, and may require alleles with substantial effect. How can populations combine the advantages of large effective size with the ability to specialise into local niches? To what extent does reproductive isolation help resolve this tension? I address these questions using eco-evolutionary models of polygenic adaptation, contrasting discrete demes with continuous space.

Dispersal synchronizes giant kelp forests

Spatial synchrony is the tendency for population fluctuations to be correlated among different locations. This phenomenon is a ubiquitous feature of population dynamics and is important for ecosystem stability, but several aspects of synchrony remain unresolved. In particular, the extent to which any particular mechanism, such as dispersal, contributes to observed synchrony in natural populations has been difficult to determine. To address this gap, we leveraged recent methodological improvements to determine how dispersal structures synchrony in giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera), a global marine foundation species that has served as a useful system for understanding synchrony. We quantified population synchrony and fecundity with satellite imagery across 11 years and 880 km of coastline in southern California, USA, and estimated propagule dispersal probabilities using a high-resolution ocean circulation model. Using matrix regression models that control for the influence of geographic distance, resources (seawater nitrate), and disturbance (destructive waves), we discovered that dispersal was an important driver of synchrony. Our findings were robust to assumptions about propagule mortality during dispersal and consistent between two metrics of dispersal: (1) the individual probability of dispersal and (2) estimates of demographic connectivity that incorporate fecundity (the number of propagules dispersing). We also found that dispersal and environmental conditions resulted in geographic clusters with distinct patterns of synchrony. This study is among the few to statistically associate synchrony with dispersal in a natural population and the first to do so in a marine organism. The synchronizing effects of dispersal and environmental conditions on foundation species, such as giant kelp, likely have cascading effects on the spatial stability of biodiversity and ecosystem function.

Effect of unequal vaccination coverage and migration on long-term pathogen evolution in a metapopulation

Worldwide inequalities in vaccine availability are expected to affect the spread and spatial distribution of infectious diseases. It is unclear, however, how spatial variation in vaccination coverage can affect the long-term evolution of pathogens. Here we use an analytical model and numerical simulations to analyse the influence of different imperfect vaccines on the potential evolution of pathogen virulence in a two-population model where vaccination coverage varies between populations. We focus on four vaccines, with different modes of action on the life cycle of a pathogen infecting two host populations coupled by migration. We show that, for vaccines that reduce infection risk or transmissibility, spatial heterogeneity has little effect on pathogen prevalence and host mortality, and no effect on the evolution of pathogen virulence. In contrast, vaccines that reduce pathogen virulence can select for more virulent pathogens and may lead to the coexistence of different pathogen strains, depending on the degree of spatial heterogeneity in the metapopulation. This heterogeneity is driven by two parameters: pathogen migration and the difference in the vaccination rate between the two populations. We show that vaccines that only reduce pathogen virulence select mainly for a single pathogen strategy in the long term, while vaccines that reduce both transmission and virulence can favor the coexistence of two pathogen genotypes. We discuss the implications and potential extensions of our analysis.

Estimating SARS-CoV-2 transmission parameters between coinciding outbreaks in a university population and the surrounding community

Prior studies suggest that population heterogeneity in SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) transmission plays an important role in epidemic dynamics. During the fall of 2020, many US universities and the surrounding communities experienced an increase in reported incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections, with a high disease burden among students. We explore the transmission dynamics of an outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 among university students, how it impacted the non-student population via cross-transmission, and how it could influence pandemic planning and response. Using surveillance data of reported SARS-CoV-2 cases, we developed a two-population SEIR model to estimate transmission parameters and evaluate how these subpopulations interacted during the 2020 Fall semester. We estimated the transmission rate among the university students (βU) and community residents (βC), as well as the rate of cross-transmission between the two subpopulations (βM) using particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo (pMCMC) simulation-based methods. We found that both populations were more likely to interact with others in their population and that cross-transmission was minimal. The cross-transmission estimate (βM) was considerably smaller [0.04 × 10-5 (95% CI: 0.00 × 10-5, 0.15 × 10-5)] compared to the community estimate (βC) at 2.09 × 10-5 (95% CI: 1.12 × 10-5, 2.90 × 10-5) and university estimate (βU) at 27.92 × 10-5 (95% CI: 19.97 × 10-5, 39.15 × 10-5). The higher within population transmission rates among the university and the community (698 and 52 times higher, respectively) when compared to the cross-transmission rate, suggests that these two populations did not transmit between each other heavily, despite their geographic overlap. During the first wave of the pandemic, two distinct epidemics occurred among two subpopulations within a relatively small US county population where university students accounted for roughly 41% of the total population. Transmission parameter estimates varied substantially with minimal or no cross-transmission between the subpopulations. Assumptions that county-level and other small populations are well-mixed during a respiratory viral pandemic should be reconsidered. More granular models reflecting overlapping subpopulations may assist with better-targeted interventions for local public health and healthcare facilities.

Sexual selection buffers the negative consequences of population fragmentation on adaptive plastic responses to increasing temperatures

Whether sexual selection facilitates or hampers the ability to plastically respond to novel environments might depend on population structure, via its effects on sexual interactions and associated fitness payoffs. Using experimentally evolved lines of the seed beetle Callosobruchus maculatus, we tested whether individuals evolving under different sexual selection (monogamy vs. polygamy) and population spatial structure (metapopulation vs. undivided populations) treatments differed in their response across developmental thermal conditions (control, hot, or stressful) in a range of fitness and fitness-associated traits. We found that individuals from subdivided populations had lower lifetime reproductive success at hot temperatures, but only in lines evolving under relaxed sexual selection, revealing a complex interaction between sexual selection, population structure, and thermal environmental stress on fitness. We also found an effect of population structure on several traits, including fertility and adult emergence success, under exposure to high thermal conditions. Finally, we found a strong negative effect of hot and stressful temperatures on fitness and associated traits. Our results show that population structure can exacerbate the impact of a warming climate, potentially leading to declines in population viability, but that sexual selection can buffer the negative influence of population subdivision on adaptation to warm temperatures.

Temporal population genetic structure of Phormia regina (Diptera: Calliphoridae)

The genetic structure of forensically important blow fly (Brauer & Bergenstamm) (Diptera: Calliphoridae) populations has remained elusive despite high relatedness within wild-caught samples. This research aimed to determine if the implementation of a high-resolution spatiotemporal sampling design would reveal latent genetic structure among blow fly populations and to elucidate any environmental impacts on observed patterns of genetic structure. Adult females of the black blow fly, Phormia regina (Meigen) (Diptera: Calliphoridae), were collected from 9 urban parks in Indiana, USA over 3 yr and genotyped at 6 polymorphic microsatellite loci. The data analysis involved 3 clustering methods: principal coordinate analysis (PCoA), discriminant analysis of principal components (DAPC), and STRUCTURE. While the PCoA did not uncover any discernible clustering patterns, the DAPC and STRUCTURE analyses yielded significant results, with 9 and 4 genetic clusters, respectively. Visualization of the STRUCTURE bar plot revealed N = 11 temporal demarcations indicating barriers to gene flow. An analysis of molecular variance of these STRUCTURE-inferred populations supported strong temporally driven genetic differentiation (FST = 0.048, F'ST = 0.664) relative to geographic differentiation (FST = 0.009, F'ST = 0.241). Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation and Boosted Regression Tree analyses revealed that collection timepoint and 4 main abiotic factors (temperature, humidity, precipitation, and wind speed) were associated with the genetic subdivisions observed for P. regina. A complex interplay between environmental conditions, the unique reproductive strategies of the blow fly, and the extensive dispersal abilities of these organisms likely drives the strong genetic structure of P. regina in the Midwestern US.

Spatial habitat heterogeneity influences host-pathogen dynamics in a patchy population of Ranchman's tiger moth

Host-pathogen dynamics are influenced by many factors that vary locally, but models of disease rarely consider dynamics across spatially heterogeneous environments. In addition, theory predicts that dispersal will influence host-pathogen dynamics of populations that are linked, although this has not been examined empirically in natural systems. We examined the spatial dynamics of a patchy population of tiger moths and its baculovirus pathogen, in which habitat type and weather influence dynamics. Theoretical models of host-baculovirus dynamics predict that such variation in dynamics between habitat types could be driven by a range of factors, of which we predict two are likely to be operating in this system: (1) differences in the environmental persistence of pathogens or (2) differences in host intrinsic rates of increase. We used time series models and monitored infection rates of hosts to characterize population and disease dynamics and distinguish between these possibilities. We also examined the role of host dispersal (connectivity) and weather as important contributors to dynamics, using time series models and experiments. We found that the population growth rate was higher, delayed density dependence was weaker, and long-period oscillations had lower amplitudes in high-quality habitat patches. The infection rate was higher on average in high-quality habitat, and this was likely to have been driven by higher mean population densities and no differences in pathogen persistence in different habitats (delayed density dependence). Time series modeling and experiments also showed an interactive effect of temperature and precipitation on moth population growth rates (likely caused by variation in host plant quality and quantity), and an effect of connectivity. Our results showed that spatial heterogeneity, connectivity, climate, and their interactions were important in driving host-baculovirus dynamics. In particular, our study found that connected patches and spatial heterogeneity generated differences in dynamics that only partially aligned with theoretical predictions.

Landscape Structure Affects Metapopulation-Scale Tipping Points

AbstractEven when environments deteriorate gradually, ecosystems may shift abruptly from one state to another. Such catastrophic shifts are difficult to predict and sometimes to reverse (so-called hysteresis). While well studied in simplified contexts, we lack a general understanding of how catastrophic shifts spread in realistically spatially structured landscapes. For different types of landscape structures, including typical terrestrial modular and riverine dendritic networks, we here investigate landscape-scale stability in metapopulations whose patches can locally exhibit catastrophic shifts. We find that such metapopulations usually exhibit large-scale catastrophic shifts and hysteresis and that the properties of these shifts depend strongly on the metapopulation spatial structure and on the population dispersal rate: an intermediate dispersal rate, a low average degree, or a riverine spatial structure can largely reduce hysteresis size. Our study suggests that large-scale restoration is easier with spatially clustered restoration efforts and in populations characterized by an intermediate dispersal rate.

A major flood caused by a typhoon did not affect the population genetic structure of a river mayfly metapopulation

Floods affect the population structure of organisms that inhabit streams. In recent decades, the scale of floods has become larger due to climate change. Under these circumstances, on 12 October 2019, the largest typhoon in the history of observation in Japan struck the Japanese Archipelago. This typhoon caused heavy rainfall in various places, and the Chikuma-Shinano River System (Japan's largest) suffered great damage. Eight years before the large-scale disturbance in the river system, the population structure of the mayfly Isonychia japonica was studied in detail using quantitative sampling (population numbers and biomass) and by sequencing the mtDNA cytochrome c oxidase subunit I. To understand the impact of the flood on the population and genetic structures, we repeated the same research approximately 1 year after the flood. Direct comparison of sites before and after the flood revealed no significant changes between pre- and post-flood population genetic structure. This indicates high in situ resistance and/or resilience recovery of the populations to the disturbance. We hypothesize that this high resistance/resilience to flood disturbance is a result of strong selection for such traits in the rivers of the Japanese Archipelago, which are short, steep, flow rapidly and violently, and are strongly affected by floods.

Next-generation matrices for marine metapopulations: The case of sea lice on salmon farms

Classifying habitat patches as sources or sinks and determining metapopulation persistence requires coupling connectivity between habitat patches with local demographic rates. While methods to calculate sources, sinks, and metapopulation persistence exist for discrete-time models, there is no method that is consistent across modeling frameworks. In this paper, we show how next-generation matrices, originally popularized in epidemiology to calculate new infections after one generation, can be used in an ecological context to calculate sources and sinks as well as metapopulation persistence in marine metapopulations. To demonstrate the utility of the method, we construct a next-generation matrix for a network of sea lice populations on salmon farms in the Broughton Archipelago, BC, an intensive salmon farming region on the west coast of Canada where certain salmon farms are currently being removed under an agreement between local First Nations and the provincial government. The column sums of the next-generation matrix can determine if a habitat patch is a source or a sink and the spectral radius of the next-generation matrix can determine the persistence of the metapopulation. With respect to salmon farms in the Broughton Archipelago, we identify the salmon farms which are acting as the largest sources of sea lice and show that in this region the most productive sea lice populations are also the most connected. The farms which are the largest sources of sea lice have not yet been removed from the Broughton Archipelago, and warming temperatures could lead to increased sea louse growth. Calculating sources, sinks, and persistence in marine metapopulations using the next-generation matrix is biologically intuitive, mathematically equivalent to previous methods, and consistent across different modeling frameworks.

Landscape experiments unlock relationships among habitat loss, fragmentation, and patch-size effects

Habitat loss is often considered the greatest near-term threat to biodiversity, while the impact of habitat fragmentation remains intensely debated. A key issue of this debate centers on the problem of scale-landscape or patch-at which to assess the consequences of fragmentation. Yet patterns are often confounded across scales, and experimental designs that could solve this scaling problem remain scarce. We conducted two field experiments in 30 experimental landscapes in which we manipulated habitat loss, fragmentation, and patch size for a community of four insect herbivores that specialize on the cactus Opuntia. In the first experiment, we destroyed 2088 Opuntia patches in either aggregated or random patterns and compared the relative effects of landscape-scale loss and fragmentation to those of local patch size on species occurrence. This experiment focused on manipulating the relative separation of remaining patches, where we hypothesized that aggregated loss would disrupt dispersal more than random loss, leading to lower occurrence. In the second experiment, we destroyed 759 Opuntia patches to generate landscapes that varied in patch number and size for a given amount of habitat loss and assessed species occurrence. This experiment focused on manipulating the subdivision of remaining habitat into different patch-size distributions, where we hypothesized that an increase in the number of patches for a given amount of loss would lead to negative effects on occurrence. For both, we expected that occurrence would increase with patch size. We find strong evidence for landscape-scale effects of habitat fragmentation, with aggregated loss and a larger number of patches for a given amount of habitat loss leading to a lower frequency of patches occupied in landscapes. In both experiments, occurrence increased with patch size, yet the interaction of patch size and landscape-scale loss and fragmentation drove species occurrence in patches. Importantly, the effects of patch size were sufficient to predict the effects of habitat loss and fragmentation across entire landscapes. Our experimental results suggest that changes at both the patch and landscape scales can impact populations, but that a long-standing pattern-the patch-size effect-captures much of the key variation shaping patterns of species occurrence.

Balancing selection and the crossing of fitness valleys in structured populations: diversification in the gametophytic self-incompatibility system

The self-incompatibility locus (S-locus) of flowering plants displays a striking allelic diversity. How such a diversity has emerged remains unclear. In this article, we performed numerical simulations in a finite island population genetics model to investigate how population subdivision affects the diversification process at a S-locus, given that the two-gene architecture typical of S-loci involves the crossing of a fitness valley. We show that population structure slightly reduces the parameter range allowing for the diversification of self-incompatibility haplotypes (S-haplotypes), but at the same time also increases the number of these haplotypes maintained in the whole metapopulation. This increase is partly due to a higher rate of diversification and replacement of S-haplotypes within and among demes. We also show that the two-gene architecture leads to a higher diversity in structured populations compared with a simpler genetic architecture, where new S-haplotypes appear in a single mutation step. Overall, our results suggest that population subdivision can act in two opposite directions: it renders S-haplotypes diversification easier, although it also increases the risk that the self-incompatibility system is lost.

Long-term supratidal rockpool invertebrate community, Discovery Bay, Jamaica

The rockpool cluster offers unique characteristics making it a model system for general questions in ecology: (1) all rockpools share biotic history (any species can reach any rockpool); (2) they form a strong gradient of conditions from benign to harsh; (3) 1-day sampling across all rockpools ensures census consistency; (4) rockpools respond to changing conditions within a short (days) time frame; (5) they are easy to manipulate (note: the data are from an unmanipulated rockpool subset), and (6) they may act as a single metacommunity that exhibits consistent species distribution patterns on a broader scale (unpublished). Consequently, the rockpools continue generating insights, with the first publications in 1996. The data represent an intensive rockpool metacommunity monitoring project, making them of considerable value to our understanding of tropical coastal metacommunity dynamics and general ecological processes. The dataset covers surveys of invertebrate fauna in 49, primarily supratidal, rockpools on a fossil coral reef over 25 years. All rockpools occur within a 73 × 47 m array of rocks at a distance of less than 2 m from the nearest neighbor. About 200 other rockpools occur on the same area. They are in a sheltered bay (Discovery Bay, Jamaica) between 0 and 5 m from the ocean. Typically, rockpools are 5-30 cm deep and 40 cm across on average, with elevation from a few centimeters to 300 cm above sea level. Rockpools may drain excess water from precipitation or waves into other rockpools, which allows organisms to disperse passively downstream. Of the 49 rockpools in the survey, 35 are subject to occasional drying up, while the others appear permanent. Most collections (1989-2004) were annual censuses of invertebrate populations, exceeding a total of 475,000 invertebrates counted, with only minor record gaps. In all cases, species level taxonomic information consists of detailed photographs. In some cases, notes are included with the taxonomic data where species identification could not be matched to information available in the literature. Samples from 2005 to 2019 still require organism identification. Abiotic parameters were measured the day before biotic sampling took place as the process of biotic sampling can impact abiotic parameters through stirring, oxygenation and filtering (temperature, pH, turbidity, dissolved oxygen, light intensity, salinity, alkalinity, and nutrients). The cumulative richness in the metacommunity consist of 78 freshwater, marine, and brackish water taxa, with a mean richness per rockpool of 5.5 distinct species. Regarding taxonomic makeup, ostracods dominated in both diversity and number, followed by copepods, and insects. There are no copyright restrictions on the data set; please cite this data paper when using these data in publications.

Fragmented habitat compensates for the adverse effects of genetic bottleneck

In the face of the human-caused biodiversity crisis, understanding the theoretical basis of conservation efforts of endangered species and populations has become increasingly important. According to population genetics theory, population subdivision helps organisms retain genetic diversity, crucial for adaptation in a changing environment. Habitat topography is thought to be important for generating and maintaining population subdivision, but empirical cases are needed to test this assumption. We studied Saimaa ringed seals, landlocked in a labyrinthine lake and recovering from a drastic bottleneck, with additional samples from three other ringed seal subspecies. Using whole-genome sequences of 145 seals, we analyzed the distribution of variation and genetic relatedness among the individuals in relation to the habitat shape. Despite a severe history of genetic bottlenecks with prevalent homozygosity in Saimaa ringed seals, we found evidence for the population structure mirroring the subregions of the lake. Our genome-wide analyses showed that the subpopulations had retained unique variation and largely complementary patterns of homozygosity, highlighting the significance of habitat connectivity in conservation biology and the power of genomic tools in understanding its impact. The central role of the population substructure in preserving genetic diversity at the metapopulation level was confirmed by simulations. Integration of genetic analyses in conservation decisions gives hope to Saimaa ringed seals and other endangered species in fragmented habitats.

Animal movement and associated infectious disease risk in a metapopulation

Animal movements among habitat patches or populations are important for maintaining long-term genetic and demographic viability, but connectivity may also facilitate disease spread and persistence. Understanding factors that influence animal movements is critical to understanding potential transmission risk and persistence of communicable disease in spatially structured systems. We evaluated effects of sex, age and Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae infection status at capture on intermountain movements and seasonal movement rates observed in desert bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis nelsoni) using global positioning system collar data from 135 individuals (27 males, 108 females) in 14 populations between 2013 and 2018, following a pneumonia outbreak linked to the pathogen M. ovipneumoniae in the Mojave Desert, California, USA. Based on logistic regression analysis, intermountain movements were influenced by sex, age and most notably, infection status at capture: males, older animals and uninfected individuals were most likely to make such movements. Based on multiple linear regression analysis, females that tested positive for M. ovipneumoniae at capture also had lower mean daily movement rates that were further influenced by season. Our study provides empirical evidence of a pathogenic infection decreasing an individual's future mobility, presumably limiting that pathogen's ability to spread, and ultimately influencing transmission risk within a spatially structured system.

Blowin' in the wind: Dispersal of Glossy Ibis Plegadis falcinellus in the West Mediterranean basin

The movement of organisms is a central process in ecology and evolution, and understanding the selective forces shaping the spatial structure of populations is essential to conservation. Known as a trans-Saharan migrant capable of long-distance flights, the Glossy Ibis Plegadis falcinellus' dispersal remains poorly known. We started a ringing scheme in 2008, the first of its kind in North Africa, and ringed 1121 fledglings over 10 years, of which 265 (23.6%) were resighted. Circular statistics and finite mixture models of natal dispersal indicated: (1) a strong West/Northwest-East/Southeast flight orientation; (2) Glossy Ibis colonies from North Africa and Southern Europe (particularly on the Iberian Peninsula) are closely linked through partial exchanges of juvenile and immature birds; (3) unlike birds from Eastern Europe, North African Glossy Ibis disperse to but do not seem to undergo regular round-trip migration to the Sahel; (4) young adults (>2-years-old) have a higher probability of dispersing further than individuals in their first calendar year (<1-year-old); and (5) dispersal distance is not influenced by sex or morphometric traits. Together, these results enhance our knowledge of the dispersal and metapopulation dynamics of Glossy Ibis, revealing large-scale connectivity between the Iberian Peninsula and Algeria, likely driven by the spatial heterogeneity of the landscape in these two regions and the prevailing winds in the Western Mediterranean.

Extinction dynamics: The interplay of species traits and the spatial scales of metapopulation declines

Global changes can lead to species declines and extinctions through their impacts on species habitats at two distinct spatial scales: habitat destruction, in which individual habitat patches are destroyed by land-use change or natural disasters, and habitat degradation, in which larger scale changes, such as nitrogen deposition or climate change, lower mean population abundances across landscapes. We developed a theory showing that, even when these two forms of global change have an identical impact on a species' total amount of habitat, they have qualitatively different consequences for species dynamics and extinction. Using metapopulation theory and simulations, we found distinct impacts of these global changes characterized through several responses: the rate at which populations are lost from the remaining patches, extinction thresholds, and the duration of extinction debts. Habitat degradation causes a faster decline in species populations when habitat reduction is low, making it particularly detrimental for rare species. Habitat destruction has smaller impacts for low habitat reduction, but shows clear thresholds beyond which it surpasses degradation's negative impact; the location and steepness of the threshold depends on species dispersal, with poor dispersers having steeper thresholds. These results highlight the challenge of using population monitoring to assess the consequences of global changes and predict consequences of further change: extinction trajectories cannot be predicted due to thresholds (habitat destruction) and lagged dynamics that lead to extinction debts (habitat degradation). Our research clarifies why the impacts of one type of global change may poorly predict the impacts of the other and suggests general rules for predicting the long-term impacts of global changes based on species traits.

Genetic Drift Shapes the Evolution of a Highly Dynamic Metapopulation

The dynamics of extinction and (re)colonization in habitat patches are characterizing features of dynamic metapopulations, causing them to evolve differently than large, stable populations. The propagule model, which assumes genetic bottlenecks during colonization, posits that newly founded subpopulations have low genetic diversity and are genetically highly differentiated from each other. Immigration may then increase diversity and decrease differentiation between subpopulations. Thus, older and/or less isolated subpopulations are expected to have higher genetic diversity and less genetic differentiation. We tested this theory using whole-genome pool-sequencing to characterize nucleotide diversity and differentiation in 60 subpopulations of a natural metapopulation of the cyclical parthenogen Daphnia magna. For comparison, we characterized diversity in a single, large, and stable D. magna population. We found reduced (synonymous) genomic diversity, a proxy for effective population size, weak purifying selection, and low rates of adaptive evolution in the metapopulation compared with the large, stable population. These differences suggest that genetic bottlenecks during colonization reduce effective population sizes, which leads to strong genetic drift and reduced selection efficacy in the metapopulation. Consistent with the propagule model, we found lower diversity and increased differentiation in younger and also in more isolated subpopulations. Our study sheds light on the genomic consequences of extinction-(re)colonization dynamics to an unprecedented degree, giving strong support for the propagule model. We demonstrate that the metapopulation evolves differently from a large, stable population and that evolution is largely driven by genetic drift.

Stability of patch-turnover relationships under equilibrium and nonequilibrium metapopulation dynamics driven by biogeography

Two controversial tenets of metapopulation biology are whether patch quality and the surrounding matrix are more important to turnover (colonisation and extinction) than biogeography (patch area and isolation) and whether factors governing turnover during equilibrium also dominate nonequilibrium dynamics. We tested both tenets using 18 years of surveys for two secretive wetland birds, black and Virginia rails, during (1) a period of equilibrium with stable occupancy and (2) after drought and arrival of West Nile Virus (WNV), which resulted in WNV infections in rails, increased extinction and decreased colonisation probabilities modified by WNV, nonequilibrium dynamics for both species and occupancy decline for black rails. Area (primarily) and isolation (secondarily) drove turnover during both stable and unstable metapopulation dynamics, greatly exceeding the effects of patch quality and matrix conditions. Moreover, slopes between turnover and patch characteristics changed little between equilibrium and nonequilibrium, confirming the overriding influences of biogeographic factors on turnover.

Eco-hydrological modelling of channel network dynamics-part 2: application to metapopulation dynamics

Temporal variations in the configuration of the flowing portion of stream networks are observed in the large majority of rivers worldwide. However, the ecological implications of river network expansions/retractions remain poorly understood, owing to the lack of computationally efficient modelling tools conceived for the long-term simulation of river network dynamics. Here, we couple a stochastic approach for the simulation of channel network expansion and retraction (described in a companion paper) with a dynamic version of a stochastic occupancy metapopulation model. The coupled eco-hydrological model is used to analyse the impact of pulsing river networks on species persistence under different hydroclimatic scenarios. Our results unveil the existence of a climate-dependent detrimental effect of network dynamics on species spread and persistence. This effect is enhanced by dry climates, where flashy expansions and retractions of the flowing channels induce metapopulation extinction. Survival probabilities are particularly reduced in settings where the spatial heterogeneity of network connectivity is pronounced. The analysis indicates that accounting for the temporal variability of the flowing river network and its connectivity is a fundamental prerequisite for analysing in-stream metapopulation dynamics.

Do metapopulations and management matter for relict headwater bull trout populations in a warming climate?

Mountain headwater streams have emerged as important climate refuges for native cold-water species due to their slow climate velocities and extreme physical conditions that inhibit non-native invasions. Species persisting in refuges often do so as fragmented, relict populations from broader historical distributions that are subject to ongoing habitat reductions and increasing isolation as climate change progresses. Key for conservation planning is determining where remaining populations will persist and how habitat restoration strategies can improve biological resilience to enhance the long-term prospects for species of concern. Studying bull trout, a headwater species in the northwestern USA, we developed habitat occupancy models using a data set of population occurrence in 991 natal habitat patches with a suite of novel geospatial covariates derived from high-resolution hydroclimatic scenarios and other sources representing watershed and instream habitat conditions, patch geometry, disturbance, and biological interactions. The best model correctly predicted bull trout occupancy status in 82.6% of the patches and included effects for: patch size estimated as habitat volume, extent of within-patch reaches <9°C mean August temperature, distance to nearest occupied patch, road density, invasive brook trout prevalence, patch slope, and frequency of high winter flows. The model was used to assess 16 scenarios of bull trout occurrence within the study streams that represented a range of restoration strategies under three climatic conditions (baseline, moderate change, and extreme change). Results suggested that regional improvements in bull trout status were difficult to achieve in realistic restoration strategies due to the pervasive nature of climate change and the limited extent of restoration actions given their high costs. However, occurrence probabilities in a subset of patches were highly responsive to restoration actions, suggesting that targeted investments to improve the resilience of some populations may be contextually beneficial. A possible strategy, therefore, is focusing effort on responsive populations near more robust population strongholds, thereby contributing to local enclaves where dispersal among populations further enhances resilience. Equally important, strongholds constituted a small numerical percentage of patches (5%-21%), yet encompassed the large majority of occupied habitat by volume (72%-89%) and their protection could have significant conservation benefits for bull trout.

Decoding the dynamics of dental distributions: insights from shark demography and dispersal

Shark teeth are one of the most abundant vertebrate fossils, and because tooth size generally correlates with body size, their accumulations document the size structure of populations. Understanding how ecological and environmental processes influence size structure, and how this extends to influence these dental distributions, may offer a window into the ecological and environmental dynamics of past and present shark populations. Here, we examine the dental distributions of sand tigers, including extant Carcharias taurus and extinct Striatolamia macrota, to reconstruct the size structure for a contemporary locality and four Eocene localities. We compare empirical distributions against expectations from a population simulation to gain insight into potential governing ecological processes. Specifically, we investigate the influence of dispersal flexibility to and from protected nurseries. We show that changing the flexibility of initial dispersal of juveniles from the nursery and annual migration of adults to the nursery explains a large amount of dental distribution variability. Our framework predicts dispersal strategies of an extant sand tiger population, and supports nurseries as important components of sand tiger life history in both extant and Eocene populations. These results suggest nursery protection may be vital for shark conservation with increasing anthropogenic impacts and climate change.

Hilltopping influences spatial dynamics in a patchy population of tiger moths

Dispersal is a key driver of spatial population dynamics. Dispersal behaviour may be shaped by many factors, such as mate-finding, the spatial distribution of resources, or wind and currents, yet most models of spatial dynamics assume random dispersal. We examined the spatial dynamics of a day-flying moth species (Arctia virginalis) that forms mating aggregations on hilltops (hilltopping) based on long-term adult and larval population censuses. Using time-series models, we compared spatial population dynamics resulting from empirically founded hilltop-based connectivity indices and modelled the interactive effects of temperature, precipitation and density dependence. Model comparisons supported hilltop-based connectivity metrics including hilltop elevation over random connectivity, suggesting an effect of hilltopping behaviour on dynamics. We also found strong interactive effects of temperature and precipitation on dynamics. Simulations based on fitted time-series models showed lower patch occupancy and regional synchrony, and higher colonization and extinction rates when hilltopping was included, with potential implications for the probability of persistence of the patch network. Overall, our results show the potential for dispersal behaviour to have important effects on spatial population dynamics and persistence, and we advocate the inclusion of such non-random dispersal in metapopulation models.

Modelling the responses of partially-migratory metapopulations to changing seasonal migration rates: from theory to data

Among‐individual and within‐individual variation in expression of seasonal migration versus residence is widespread in nature and could substantially affect the dynamics of partially migratory metapopulations inhabiting seasonally and spatially structured environments. However, such variation has rarely been explicitly incorporated into metapopulation dynamic models for partially migratory systems. We, therefore, lack general frameworks that can identify how variable seasonal movements, and associated season‐ and location‐specific vital rates, can control system persistence.

We constructed a novel conceptual framework that captures full‐annual‐cycle dynamics and key dimensions of metapopulation structure for partially migratory species inhabiting seasonal environments. We conceptualize among‐individual variation in seasonal migration as two variable vital rates: seasonal movement probability and associated movement survival probability. We conceptualize three levels of within‐individual variation (i.e. plasticity), representing seasonal or annual variation in seasonal migration or lifelong fixed strategies. We formulate these concepts as a general matrix model, which is customizable for diverse life‐histories and seasonal landscapes.

To illustrate how variable seasonal migration can affect metapopulation growth rate, demographic structure and vital rate elasticities, we parameterize our general models for hypothetical short‐ and longer‐lived species. Analyses illustrate that elasticities of seasonal movement probability and associated survival probability can sometimes equal or exceed those of vital rates typically understood to substantially influence metapopulation dynamics (i.e. seasonal survival probability or fecundity), that elasticities can vary non‐linearly, and that metapopulation outcomes depend on the level of within‐individual plasticity.

We illustrate how our general framework can be applied to evaluate the consequences of variable and changing seasonal movement probability by parameterizing our models for a real partially migratory metapopulation of European shags Gulosus aristotelis assuming lifelong fixed strategies. Given observed conditions, metapopulation growth rate was most elastic to breeding season adult survival of the resident fraction in the dominant population. However, given doubled seasonal movement probability, variation in survival during movement would become the primary driver of metapopulation dynamics.

Our general conceptual and matrix model frameworks, and illustrative analyses, thereby highlight complex ways in which structured variation in seasonal migration can influence dynamics of partially migratory metapopulations, and pave the way for diverse future theoretical and empirical advances.

The response of a metapopulation to a changing environment

A species distributed across diverse environments may adapt to local conditions. We ask how quickly such a species changes its range in response to changed conditions. Szép et al. (Szép E, Sachdeva H, Barton NH. 2021 Polygenic local adaptation in metapopulations: a stochastic eco-evolutionary model. Evolution 75, 1030-1045 (doi:10.1111/evo.14210)) used the infinite island model to find the stationary distribution of allele frequencies and deme sizes. We extend this to find how a metapopulation responds to changes in carrying capacity, selection strength, or migration rate when deme sizes are fixed. We further develop a 'fixed-state' approximation. Under this approximation, polymorphism is only possible for a narrow range of habitat proportions when selection is weak compared to drift, but for a much wider range otherwise. When rates of selection or migration relative to drift change in a single deme of the metapopulation, the population takes a time of order m^-1 to reach the new equilibrium. However, even with many loci, there can be substantial fluctuations in net adaptation, because at each locus, alleles randomly get lost or fixed. Thus, in a finite metapopulation, variation may gradually be lost by chance, even if it would persist in an infinite metapopulation. When conditions change across the whole metapopulation, there can be rapid change, which is predicted well by the fixed-state approximation. This work helps towards an understanding of how metapopulations extend their range across diverse environments. This article is part of the theme issue 'Species' ranges in the face of changing environments (Part II)'.

Sex-specific differences in reproductive life-history traits of the moss Weissia jamaicensis

PREMISE

We investigated sex-specific differences in the life-history traits of a metapopulation of the dioicous moss Weissia jamaicensis. Field observations revealed high rates of fertilization, which is uncommon for most dioicous bryophytes. We raised four hypotheses associated with the way the reproductive traits are related to the fertilization rate in this metapopulation.

METHODS

We sampled 10 patches of the metapopulation and quantified sexual expression, sex ratio, reproductive success, and reproductive allocation. The ramets were classified as male, non-sporophytic female, sporophytic female, or non-sex-expressing. Thirty ramets from each of the categories expressing sex were placed for regeneration to test the effect of reproductive allocation on this trait.

RESULTS

We found greater expression of the female function in all patches, implying a female bias in the metapopulation. The number of male ramets was variable in each patch and did not affect reproductive success. At the prezygotic level, the allocation of resources to the male function was higher. However, the large allocation of resources to sporophyte development in sporophytic females, which exceeded allocations at prezygotic levels, was related to the higher mortality rate of these ramets, suggesting reproductive cost.

CONCLUSIONS

The prezygotic ramets that allocated the greatest amount of resources to reproduction expressed sex less frequently, biasing the sex ratio toward the sex that allocated the least amount of resources to reproduction. Overall, the ramets that allocated the greatest amount of resources to reproduction had the lowest regeneration rate, suggesting reproductive cost.

Asynchrony, density dependence, and persistence in an amphibian

Understanding drivers of metapopulation dynamics remains a critical challenge for ecology and conservation. In particular, the degree of synchrony in metapopulation dynamics determines how resilient a metapopulation is to a widespread disturbance. In this study, we used 21 years of egg mass count data across 64 nonpermanent freshwater ponds in Connecticut, USA to evaluate patterns of abundance and growth and to assess regional as well as local factors in shaping the population dynamics of wood frogs (Rana sylvatica = Lithobates sylvaticus). In particular, we asked whether a species known to undergo metapopulation dynamics exhibited spatial synchrony in abundances. With the exception of a single year when breeding took place during severe drought conditions, our analyses revealed no evidence of synchrony despite close proximity (mean minimum distance <300 m) of breeding ponds across the 3213 ha study area. Instead, local, pond-scale conditions best predicted patterns of abundance and population growth rate. We found negative density dependence on population growth rate within ponds as well as evidence that larger neighboring pond populations had a negative effect on focal ponds. Beyond density, pond depth was a critical predictor; deeper ponds supported larger populations. Drought conditions and warm winters negatively affected populations. Overall, breeding ponds vary in critical ways that either support larger, more persistent populations or smaller populations that are not represented by breeding pairs in some years. The infrequency of spatial synchrony in this system is surprising and suggests greater resilience to stressors than would have been expected if dynamics were strongly synchronized. More generally, understanding the characteristics of systems that determine synchronous population dynamics will be critical to predicting which species are more or less resilient to widespread disturbances like land conversion or climate change.

Network topology and patch connectivity affect dynamics in experimental and model metapopulations

Biological populations are rarely isolated in space and instead interact with others via dispersal in metapopulations. Theory predicts that network connectivity patterns can have critical effects on network robustness, as certain topologies, such as scale-free networks, are more tolerant to disturbances than other patterns. However, at present, experimental evidence of how these topologies affect population dynamics in a metapopulation framework is lacking. We used experimental metapopulations of the aquatic protist Paramecium tetraurelia to determine how network topology influences occupation patterns. We created metapopulations engineered to be comparable in linkage density, but differing in their degree distribution. We compared random networks to scale-free networks by evaluating local population occupancy and abundance throughout 18-30 protist generations. In parallel, we used simulations to explore differences in patch occupation patterns among topologies. Our experimental results highlighted the importance of the balance between dispersal and extinction in the interaction with spatial network topology. Under low dispersal conditions, random metapopulations of P. tetraurelia reached higher abundance and higher occupancy (proportion of occupied patches) compared to scale-free systems in both experimental and simulated systems. Under high dispersal conditions, we did not detect differences between types of metapopulations. Increasing patch degree (i.e. number of connections per patch) reduced the probability of extinction of local populations in both types of networks. We suggest the interaction between colonization/extinction rates and network topology alters the likelihood of rescue effects which results in differential patterns of occupancy and abundance in metapopulations.

Emerging evidence of plant domestication as a landscape-level process

The evidence from ancient crops over the past decade challenges some of our most basic assumptions about the process of domestication. The emergence of crops has been viewed as a technologically progressive process in which single or multiple localized populations adapt to human environments in response to cultivation. By contrast, new genetic and archaeological evidence reveals a slow process that involved large populations over wide areas with unexpectedly sustained cultural connections in deep time. We review evidence that calls for a new landscape framework of crop origins. Evolutionary processes operate across vast distances of landscape and time, and the origins of domesticates are complex. The domestication bottleneck is a redundant concept and the progressive nature of domestication is in doubt.

Fish out of water: Genomic insights into persistence of rainbowfish populations in the desert

How populations of aquatic fauna persist in extreme desert environments is an enigma. Individuals often breed and disperse during favorable conditions. Theory predicts that adaptive capacity should be low in small populations, such as in desert fishes. We integrated satellite-derived surface water data and population genomic diversity from 20,294 single-nucleotide polymorphisms across 344 individuals to understand metapopulation persistence of the desert rainbowfish (Melanotaenia splendida tatei) in central Australia. Desert rainbowfish showed very small effective population sizes, especially at peripheral populations, and low connectivity between river catchments. Yet, there was no evidence of population-level inbreeding and a signal of possible adaptive divergence associated with aridity was detected. Candidate genes for local adaptation included functions related to environmental cues and stressful conditions. Eco-evolutionary modeling showed that positive selection in refugial subpopulations combined with connectivity during flood periods can enable retention of adaptive diversity. Our study suggests that adaptive variation can be maintained in small populations and integrate with neutral metapopulation processes to allow persistence in the desert.

Process-explicit models reveal pathway to extinction for woolly mammoth using pattern-oriented validation

Pathways to extinction start long before the death of the last individual. However, causes of early stage population declines and the susceptibility of small residual populations to extirpation are typically studied in isolation. Using validated process-explicit models, we disentangle the ecological mechanisms and threats that were integral in the initial decline and later extinction of the woolly mammoth. We show that reconciling ancient DNA data on woolly mammoth population decline with fossil evidence of location and timing of extinction requires process-explicit models with specific demographic and niche constraints, and a constrained synergy of climatic change and human impacts. Validated models needed humans to hasten climate-driven population declines by many millennia, and to allow woolly mammoths to persist in mainland Arctic refugia until the mid-Holocene. Our results show that the role of humans in the extinction dynamics of woolly mammoth began well before the Holocene, exerting lasting effects on the spatial pattern and timing of its range-wide extinction.

Microcoleus (Cyanobacteria) form watershed-wide populations without strong gradients in population structure

The relative importance of separation by distance and by environment to population genetic diversity can be conveniently tested in river networks, where these two drivers are often independently distributed over space. To evaluate the importance of dispersal and environmental conditions in shaping microbial population structures, we performed genome‐resolved metagenomic analyses of benthic Microcoleus‐dominated cyanobacterial mats collected in the Eel and Russian River networks (California, USA). The 64 Microcoleus genomes were clustered into three species that shared >96.5% average nucleotide identity (ANI). Most mats were dominated by one strain, but minor alleles within mats were often shared, even over large spatial distances (>300 km). Within the most common Microcoleus species, the ANI between the dominant strains within mats decreased with increasing spatial separation. However, over shorter spatial distances (tens of kilometres), mats from different subwatersheds had lower ANI than mats from the same subwatershed, suggesting that at shorter spatial distances environmental differences between subwatersheds in factors like canopy cover, conductivity, and mean annual temperature decreases ANI. Since mats in smaller creeks had similar levels of nucleotide diversity (π) as mats in larger downstream subwatersheds, within‐mat genetic diversity does not appear to depend on the downstream accumulation of upstream‐derived strains. The four‐gamete test and sequence length bias suggest recombination occurs between almost all strains within each species, even between populations separated by large distances or living in different habitats. Overall, our results show that, despite some isolation by distance and environmental conditions, sufficient gene‐flow occurs among cyanobacterial strains to prevent either driver from producing distinctive population structures across the watershed.

Targeted strategies for the management of wildlife diseases: the case of brucellosis in Alpine ibex

The management of infectious diseases in wildlife reservoirs is challenging and faces several limitations. However, detailed knowledge of host-pathogen systems often reveal heterogeneity among the hosts' contribution to transmission. Management strategies targeting specific classes of individuals and/or areas, having a particular role in transmission, could be more effective and more acceptable than population-wide interventions. In the wild population of Alpine ibex (Capra ibex-a protected species) of the Bargy massif (French Alps), females transmit brucellosis (Brucella melitensis) infection in ~90% of cases, and most transmissions occur in the central spatial units ("core area"). Therefore, we expanded an individual-based model, developed in a previous study, to test whether strategies targeting females or the core area, or both, would be more effective. We simulated the relative efficacy of realistic strategies for the studied population, combining test-and-remove (euthanasia of captured animals with seropositive test results) and partial culling of unmarked animals. Targeting females or the core area was more effective than untargeted management options, and strategies targeting both were even more effective. Interestingly, the number of ibex euthanized and culled in targeted strategies were lower than in untargeted ones, thus decreasing the conservation costs while increasing the sanitary benefits. Although there was no silver bullet for the management of brucellosis in the studied population, targeted strategies offered a wide range of promising refinements to classical sanitary measures. We therefore encourage to look for heterogeneity in other wildlife diseases and to evaluate potential strategies for improving management in terms of efficacy but also acceptability.

Context-dependent dispersal determines relatedness and genetic structure in a patchy amphibian population

Dispersal is a central process in ecology and evolution with far reaching consequences for the dynamics and genetics of spatially structured populations (SSPs). Individuals can adjust their decisions to disperse according to local fitness prospects, resulting in context-dependent dispersal. By determining dispersal rate, distance and direction, these individual-level decisions further modulate the demography, relatedness and genetic structure of SSPs. Here, we examined how context-dependent dispersal influences the dynamics and genetics of a great crested newt (Triturus cristatus) SSP. We collected capture-recapture data of 5564 individuals and genetic data of 950 individuals across an SSP in northern Germany. We added genetic data from six sites outside this SSP to assess genetic structure and gene flow at a regional level. Dispersal rates within the SSP were high but dispersal distances were short. Dispersal was context-dependent: individuals preferentially immigrated into high-quality ponds where breeding probabilities were higher. The studied SSP behaved like a patchy population, where subpopulations at each pond were demographically interdependent. High context-dependent dispersal led to weak but significant spatial genetic structure and relatedness within the SSP. At the regional level, a strong hierarchical genetic structure with very few first-generation migrants as well as low effective dispersal rates suggest the presence of independent demographic units. Overall, our study highlights the importance of habitat quality for driving context-dependent dispersal and therefore demography and genetic structure in SSPs. Limited capacity for long-distance dispersal seems to increase genetic structure within a population and leads to demographic isolation in anthropogenic landscapes.

Resilience of terrestrial and aquatic fauna to historical and future wildfire regimes in western North America

Wildfires in many western North American forests are becoming more frequent, larger, and severe, with changed seasonal patterns. In response, coniferous forest ecosystems will transition toward dominance by fire-adapted hardwoods, shrubs, meadows, and grasslands, which may benefit some faunal communities, but not others. We describe factors that limit and promote faunal resilience to shifting wildfire regimes for terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. We highlight the potential value of interspersed nonforest patches to terrestrial wildlife. Similarly, we review watershed thresholds and factors that control the resilience of aquatic ecosystems to wildfire, mediated by thermal changes and chemical, debris, and sediment loadings. We present a 2-dimensional life history framework to describe temporal and spatial life history traits that species use to resist wildfire effects or to recover after wildfire disturbance at a metapopulation scale. The role of fire refuge is explored for metapopulations of species. In aquatic systems, recovery of assemblages postfire may be faster for smaller fires where unburned tributary basins or instream structures provide refuge from debris and sediment flows. We envision that more-frequent, lower-severity fires will favor opportunistic species and that less-frequent high-severity fires will favor better competitors. Along the spatial dimension, we hypothesize that fire regimes that are predictable and generate burned patches in close proximity to refuge will favor species that move to refuges and later recolonize, whereas fire regimes that tend to generate less-severely burned patches may favor species that shelter in place. Looking beyond the trees to forest fauna, we consider mitigation options to enhance resilience and buy time for species facing a no-analog future.

A metapopulation model of social group dynamics and disease applied to Yellowstone wolves

The population structure of social species has important consequences for both their demography and transmission of their pathogens. We develop a metapopulation model that tracks two key components of a species' social system: average group size and number of groups within a population. While the model is general, we parameterize it to mimic the dynamics of the Yellowstone wolf population and two associated pathogens: sarcoptic mange and canine distemper. In the initial absence of disease, we show that group size is mainly determined by the birth and death rates and the rates at which groups fission to form new groups. The total number of groups is determined by rates of fission and fusion, as well as environmental resources and rates of intergroup aggression. Incorporating pathogens into the models reduces the size of the host population, predominantly by reducing the number of social groups. Average group size responds in more subtle ways: infected groups decrease in size, but uninfected groups may increase when disease reduces the number of groups and thereby reduces intraspecific aggression. Our modeling approach allows for easy calculation of prevalence at multiple scales (within group, across groups, and population level), illustrating that aggregate population-level prevalence can be misleading for group-living species. The model structure is general, can be applied to other social species, and allows for a dynamic assessment of how pathogens can affect social structure and vice versa.

Dispersal in a house sparrow metapopulation: An integrative case study of genetic assignment calibrated with ecological data and pedigree information

Dispersal has a crucial role determining ecoevolutionary dynamics through both gene flow and population size regulation. However, to study dispersal and its consequences, one must distinguish immigrants from residents. Dispersers can be identified using telemetry, capture-mark-recapture (CMR) methods, or genetic assignment methods. All of these methods have disadvantages, such as high costs and substantial field efforts needed for telemetry and CMR surveys, and adequate genetic distance required in genetic assignment. In this study, we used genome-wide 200K Single Nucleotide Polymorphism data and two different genetic assignment approaches (GSI_SIM, Bayesian framework; BONE, network-based estimation) to identify the dispersers in a house sparrow (Passer domesticus) metapopulation sampled over 16 years. Our results showed higher assignment accuracy with BONE. Hence, we proceeded to diagnose potential sources of errors in the assignment results from the BONE method due to variation in levels of interpopulation genetic differentiation, intrapopulation genetic variation and sample size. We show that assignment accuracy is high even at low levels of genetic differentiation and that it increases with the proportion of a population that has been sampled. Finally, we highlight that dispersal studies integrating both ecological and genetic data provide robust assessments of the dispersal patterns in natural populations.

Polygenic local adaptation in metapopulations: A stochastic eco-evolutionary model

This article analyzes the conditions for local adaptation in a metapopulation with infinitely many islands under a model of hard selection, where population size depends on local fitness. Each island belongs to one of two distinct ecological niches or habitats. Fitness is influenced by an additive trait which is under habitat-dependent directional selection. Our analysis is based on the diffusion approximation and accounts for both genetic drift and demographic stochasticity. By neglecting linkage disequilibria, it yields the joint distribution of allele frequencies and population size on each island. We find that under hard selection, the conditions for local adaptation in a rare habitat are more restrictive for more polygenic traits: even moderate migration load per locus at very many loci is sufficient for population sizes to decline. This further reduces the efficacy of selection at individual loci due to increased drift and because smaller populations are more prone to swamping due to migration, causing a positive feedback between increasing maladaptation and declining population sizes. Our analysis also highlights the importance of demographic stochasticity, which exacerbates the decline in numbers of maladapted populations, leading to population collapse in the rare habitat at significantly lower migration than predicted by deterministic arguments.

Political economy of renewable resource federalism

The authority to manage natural capital often follows political boundaries rather than ecological. This mismatch can lead to unsustainable outcomes, as spillovers from one management area to the next may create adverse incentives for local decision making, even within a single country. At the same time, one-size-fits-all approaches of federal (centralized) authority can fail to respond to state (decentralized) heterogeneity and can result in inefficient economic or detrimental ecological outcomes. Here we utilize a spatially explicit coupled natural-human system model of a fishery to illuminate trade-offs posed by the choice between federal vs. state control of renewable resources. We solve for the dynamics of fishing effort and fish stocks that result from different approaches to federal management that vary in terms of flexibility. Adapting numerical methods from engineering, we also solve for the open-loop Nash equilibrium characterizing state management outcomes, where each state anticipates and responds to the choices of the others. We consider traditional federalism questions (state vs. federal management) as well as more contemporary questions about the economic and ecological impacts of shifting regulatory authority from one level to another. The key mechanisms behind the trade-offs include whether differences in local conditions are driven by biological or economic mechanisms; degree of flexibility embedded in the federal management; the spatial and temporal distribution of economic returns across states; and the status-quo management type. While simple rules-of-thumb are elusive, our analysis reveals the complex political economy dimensions of renewable resource federalism.

The Galápagos Islands: biogeographic patterns and geology

In the traditional biogeographic model, the Galápagos Islands appeared a few million years ago in a sea where no other islands existed and were colonized from areas outside the region. However, recent work has shown that the Galápagos hotspot is 139 million years old (Early Cretaceous), and so groups are likely to have survived at the hotspot by dispersal of populations onto new islands from older ones. This process of metapopulation dynamics means that species can persist indefinitely in an oceanic region, as long as new islands are being produced. Metapopulations can also undergo vicariance into two metapopulations, for example at active island arcs that are rifted by transform faults. We reviewed the geographic relationships of Galápagos groups and found 10 biogeographic patterns that are shared by at least two groups. Each of the patterns coincides spatially with a major tectonic structure; these structures include: the East Pacific Rise; west Pacific and American subduction zones; large igneous plateaus in the Pacific; Alisitos terrane (Baja California), Guerrero terrane (western Mexico); rifting of North and South America; formation of the Caribbean Plateau by the Galápagos hotspot, and its eastward movement; accretion of Galápagos hotspot tracks; Andean uplift; and displacement on the Romeral fault system. All these geological features were active in the Cretaceous, suggesting that geological change at that time caused vicariance in widespread ancestors. The present distributions are explicable if ancestors survived as metapopulations occupying both the Galápagos hotspot and other regions before differentiating, more or less in situ.

Using Stochastic Modeling to Predict the Effect of Culling and Colony Dispersal of Bats on Zoonotic Viral Epidemics

Frequent outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases originating from wild animals have highlighted the necessity of managing wildlife populations to prevent zoonotic spillover, and the appropriate development of management protocols required attention on gaining a better understanding of viral dynamics in wild animal populations. In east Australia, there have been outbreaks of Hendra virus (HeV) infection in horses and humans following spillover from the virus's reservoir hosts, flying foxes (family Pteropodidae), and bat culling and colony dispersal have been proposed as appropriate management strategies. A key factor relating to flying fox population structure that influences HeV dynamics is that these bats form metapopulations, and consequently, to assess this factor, we designed an epidemic dynamics model of HeV transmission, focusing on bat metapopulation dynamics. Specifically, using flying fox movement data, we stochastically simulated models for a hypothetical metapopulation of flying foxes to examine the impact of metapopulation-related parameters, and subsequently simulated probable scenarios of culling and colony dispersal to estimate their effects on the probability of epidemic occurrence. Modeling of the hypothetical metapopulation revealed that a reduction in the number of large-sized colonies would lead to an increase in the probability of epidemic occurrence within the bat population, whereas the strong spatial coupling among colonies was found to dilute the effects of altering the number of colonies and the number of bats in each colony through culling or colony dispersal of bats on the probability that an epidemic within the bat population would occur. Culling and colony dispersal scenarios showed no significantly beneficial effect with respect to reducing the probability of an HeV epidemic occurring in flying foxes, and may indeed prove counterproductive. In conclusion, the modeling results indicate that bat culling and colony dispersal may not be an effective strategy to control HeV epidemics.

Metapopulation Structure Predicts Population Dynamics in the Cakile maritima-Alternaria brassicicola Host-Pathogen Interaction

AbstractIn symbiotic interactions, spatiotemporal variation in the distribution or population dynamics of one species represents spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the landscape for the other. Such interdependent demographic dynamics result in situations where the relative importance of biotic and abiotic factors in determining ecological processes is complicated to decipher. Using a detailed survey of three metapopulations of the succulent plant Cakile maritima and the necrotrophic fungus Alternaria brassicicola located along the southeastern Australian coast, we developed a series of statistical analyses-namely, synchrony analysis, patch occupancy dynamics, and a spatially explicit metapopulation model-to understand how habitat quality, weather conditions, dispersal, and spatial structure determine metapopulation dynamics. Climatic conditions are important drivers, likely explaining the high synchrony among populations. Host availability, landscape features facilitating dispersal, and habitat conditions also impact the occurrence and spread of disease. Overall, we show that the collection of extensive data on host and pathogen population dynamics, in combination with spatially explicit epidemiological modeling, makes it possible to accurately predict disease dynamics-even when there is extreme variability in host population dynamics. Finally, we discuss the importance of genetic information for predicting demographic dynamics in this pathosystem.

Social environment: Trait, context and agent for selection in a meta-population

In Focus: Formica, V., Donald, H., Marti, H., Irgebay, Z., Brodie III, E. Social network position experiences more variable selection than weaponry in wild subpopulations of forked fungus beetles. Journal of Animal Ecology, 90, 168-182, https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.13322. That social network traits can exhibit consistent-individual differences among individuals and confer a fitness benefit or cost is increasingly well-established. However, how selection-natural or sexual-affects those social traits and at what scale remains an open question. In this Special Feature, Formica and colleagues employ a meta-population of forked fungus beetles to test and contrast whether sexual selection on social network traits contrasted to morphological traits occurs at the local (soft) or global (hard) scales. The authors demonstrate that morphological traits are largely under hard directional positive selection, whereas social traits are under soft and variable selection. The findings are compelling and raise interesting discussion of multi-level selection and the evolution of social traits in a meta-population.

Dynamic spatio-temporal patterns of metapopulation occupancy in patchy habitats

Spatio-temporal dynamics in habitat suitability and connectivity among mosaics of heterogeneous wetlands are critical for biological diversity and species persistence in aquatic patchy landscapes. Despite the recognized importance of stochastic hydroclimatic forcing in driving wetlandscape hydrological dynamics, linking such effects to emergent dynamics of metapopulation poses significant challenges. To fill this gap, we propose here a dynamic stochastic patch occupancy model (SPOM), which links parsimonious hydrological and ecological models to simulate spatio-temporal patterns in species occupancy in wetlandscapes. Our work aims to place ecological studies of patchy habitats into a proper hydrologic and climatic framework to improve the knowledge about metapopulation shifts in response to climate-driven changes in wetlandscapes. We applied the dynamic version of the SPOM (D-SPOM) framework in two wetlandscapes in the US with contrasting landscape and climate properties. Our results illustrate that explicit consideration of the temporal dimension proposed in the D-SPOM is important to interpret local- and landscape-scale patterns of habitat suitability and metapopulation occupancy. Our analyses show that spatio-temporal dynamics of patch suitability and accessibility, driven by the stochasticity in hydroclimatic forcing, influence metapopulation occupancy and the topological metrics of the emergent wetlandscape dispersal network. D-SPOM simulations also reveal that the extinction risk in dynamic wetlandscapes is exacerbated by extended dry periods when suitable habitat decreases, hence limiting successful patch colonization and exacerbating metapopulation extinction risks. The proposed framework is not restricted only to wetland studies but could also be applied to examine metapopulation dynamics in other types of patchy habitats subjected to stochastic external disturbances.

Quantifying dispersal variability among nearshore marine populations

Dispersal drives diverse processes from population persistence to community dynamics. However, the amount of temporal variation in dispersal and its consequences for metapopulation dynamics is largely unknown for organisms with environmentally driven dispersal (e.g., many marine larvae, arthropods and plant seeds). Here, we used genetic parentage analysis to detect larval dispersal events in a common coral reef fish, Amphiprion clarkii, along 30 km of coastline consisting of 19 reef patches in Ormoc Bay, Leyte, Philippines. We quantified variation in the dispersal kernel across seven years (2012-2018) and monsoon seasons with 71 parentage assignments from 791 recruits and 1,729 adults. Connectivity patterns differed significantly among years and seasons in the scale and shape but not in the direction of dispersal. This interannual variation in dispersal kernels introduced positive temporal covariance among dispersal routes that theory predicts is likely to reduce stochastic metapopulation growth rates below the growth rates expected from only a single or a time-averaged connectivity estimate. The extent of variation in mean dispersal distance observed here among years is comparable in magnitude to the differences across reef fish species. Considering dispersal variation will be an important avenue for further metapopulation and metacommunity research across diverse taxa.

How specialized is a soil specialist? Early life history responses of a rare Eriogonum to site-level variation in volcanic soils

PREMISE

Understanding edaphic specialization is crucial for conserving rare plants that may need relocation due to habitat loss. Focusing on Eriogonum crosbyae, a rare soil specialist in the Great Basin of the United States, we asked how site-level variation among volcanic soil outcrops affected plant growth and population distribution.

METHODS

We measured emergence, survival, size, and biomass allocation of E. crosbyae seedlings planted in soils collected from 42 outcrops of actual and potential habitat. We also measured phenotypic variation in the wild, documented abiotic and biotic components of E. crosbyae habitat, re-surveyed Nevada populations, and evaluated occupancy changes over time.

RESULTS

Plants responded plastically to edaphic variation, growing larger and allocating relatively more to aboveground tissues in soils with greater nutrient availability and growing smaller in soils higher in copper in the field and the greenhouse. However, the chemical and physical soil properties we measured did not predict site occupancy, nor was plant phenotype in the greenhouse different when plants were grown in soils from sites with different occupation status. We observed occupation status reversals at five locations.

CONCLUSIONS

Eriogonum crosbyae performed well in soils formed on hydrothermally altered rocks that are inhospitable to many other plants. Extirpation/colonization events observed were consistent with metapopulation dynamics, which may partially explain the patchy distribution of E. crosbyae among outcrops of potential habitat. While soil properties did not predict site occupancy, early life stages showed sensitivity to soil variation, indicating that seedling dynamics may be important to consider for the conservation of this soil specialist.

Freshwater zooplankton metapopulations and metacommunities respond differently to environmental and spatial variation

Theory predicts that population genetic structure and metacommunity structure are linked by the common processes of drift and migration, but how population genetic structure and metacommunity structure are related in nature is still unknown. Deeper understanding of the processes influencing both genetic and community diversity is vital for better predicting how environmental change will impact biodiversity patterns. We examined how crustacean zooplankton and rotifer species' metapopulation genetic structure and metacommunities respond to environmental and spatial variation both within and across four regions of boreal Canada. Metapopulation and metacommunity variation partitioning results were compared within and across the four regions. Metapopulations and metacommunities responded differently to environmental variation and spatial structure both within and across regions, as metapopulations were influenced by different environmental variables compared to metacommunities. At larger spatial scales both metapopulations and metacommunities exhibited greater spatial and environmental structuring, again responding to a different subset of environmental variables. Our findings suggest that even though both genetic and species diversity are linked by the same processes, regional variation in environmental characteristics and spatial structure influence resulting biodiversity patterns differently. To date, no other empirical research has explored relationships between entire metapopulation and metacommunity assemblages at large regional spatial scales.