Estimating geographic variation of infection fatality ratios during epidemics

Objectives

We aim to estimate geographic variability in total numbers of infections and infection fatality ratios (IFR; the number of deaths caused by an infection per 1,000 infected people) when the availability and quality of data on disease burden are limited during an epidemic.

Methods

We develop a noncentral hypergeometric framework that accounts for differential probabilities of positive tests and reflects the fact that symptomatic people are more likely to seek testing. We demonstrate the robustness, accuracy, and precision of this framework, and apply it to the United States (U.S.) COVID-19 pandemic to estimate county-level SARS-CoV-2 IFRs.

Results

The estimators for the numbers of infections and IFRs showed high accuracy and precision; for instance, when applied to simulated validation data sets, across counties, Pearson correlation coefficients between estimator means and true values were 0.996 and 0.928, respectively, and they showed strong robustness to model misspecification. Applying the county-level estimators to the real, unsimulated COVID-19 data spanning April 1, 2020 to September 30, 2020 from across the U.S., we found that IFRs varied from 0 to 44.69, with a standard deviation of 3.55 and a median of 2.14.

Conclusions

The proposed estimation framework can be used to identify geographic variation in IFRs across settings.

Effects of spatial variability in vegetation phenology, climate, landcover, biodiversity, topography, and soil property on soil respiration across a coastal ecosystem

Coastal terrestrial-aquatic interfaces (TAIs) are crucial contributors to global biogeochemical cycles and carbon exchange. The soil carbon dioxide (CO2) efflux in these transition zones is however poorly understood due to the high spatiotemporal dynamics of TAIs, as various sub-ecosystems in this region are compressed and expanded by complex influences of tides, changes in river levels, climate, and land use. We focus on the Chesapeake Bay region to (i) investigate the spatial heterogeneity of the coastal ecosystem and identify spatial zones with similar environmental characteristics based on the spatial data layers, including vegetation phenology, climate, landcover, diversity, topography, soil property, and relative tidal elevation; (ii) understand the primary driving factors affecting soil respiration within sub-ecosystems of the coastal ecosystem. Specifically, we employed hierarchical clustering analysis to identify spatial regions with distinct environmental characteristics, followed by the determination of main driving factors using Random Forest regression and SHapley Additive exPlanations. Maximum and minimum temperature are the main drivers common to all sub-ecosystems, while each region also has additional unique major drivers that differentiate them from one another. Precipitation exerts an influence on vegetated lands, while soil pH value holds importance specifically in forested lands. In croplands characterized by high clay content and low sand content, the significant role is attributed to bulk density. Wetlands demonstrate the importance of both elevation and sand content, with clay content being more relevant in non-inundated wetlands than in inundated wetlands. The topographic wetness index significantly contributes to the mixed vegetation areas, including shrub, grass, pasture, and forest. Additionally, our research reveals that dense vegetation land covers and urban/developed areas exhibit distinct soil property drivers. Overall, our research demonstrates an efficient method of employing various open-source remote sensing and GIS datasets to comprehend the spatial variability and soil respiration mechanisms in coastal TAI. There is no one-size-fits-all approach to modeling carbon fluxes released by soil respiration in coastal TAIs, and our study highlights the importance of further research and monitoring practices to improve our understanding of carbon dynamics and promote the sustainable management of coastal TAIs.

A genomic catalog of Earth's microbiomes

The reconstruction of bacterial and archaeal genomes from shotgun metagenomes has enabled insights into the ecology and evolution of environmental and host-associated microbiomes. Here we applied this approach to >10,000 metagenomes collected from diverse habitats covering all of Earth's continents and oceans, including metagenomes from human and animal hosts, engineered environments, and natural and agricultural soils, to capture extant microbial, metabolic and functional potential. This comprehensive catalog includes 52,515 metagenome-assembled genomes representing 12,556 novel candidate species-level operational taxonomic units spanning 135 phyla. The catalog expands the known phylogenetic diversity of bacteria and archaea by 44% and is broadly available for streamlined comparative analyses, interactive exploration, metabolic modeling and bulk download. We demonstrate the utility of this collection for understanding secondary-metabolite biosynthetic potential and for resolving thousands of new host linkages to uncultivated viruses. This resource underscores the value of genome-centric approaches for revealing genomic properties of uncultivated microorganisms that affect ecosystem processes.

A meta-analysis of global fungal distribution reveals climate-driven patterns

The evolutionary and environmental factors that shape fungal biogeography are incompletely understood. Here, we assemble a large dataset consisting of previously generated mycobiome data linked to specific geographical locations across the world. We use this dataset to describe the distribution of fungal taxa and to look for correlations with different environmental factors such as climate, soil and vegetation variables. Our meta-study identifies climate as an important driver of different aspects of fungal biogeography, including the global distribution of common fungi as well as the composition and diversity of fungal communities. In our analysis, fungal diversity is concentrated at high latitudes, in contrast with the opposite pattern previously shown for plants and other organisms. Mycorrhizal fungi appear to have narrower climatic tolerances than pathogenic fungi. We speculate that climate change could affect ecosystem functioning because of the narrow climatic tolerances of key fungal taxa.

The authors assemble and analyse previously generated mycobiome data linked to geographical locations across the world. They describe the distribution of fungal taxa and show that climate is an important driver of fungal biogeography and that fungal diversity appears to be concentrated at high latitudes.

Spatial, Temporal, and Phylogenetic Scales of Microbial Ecology

Microbial communities play a major role in disease, biogeochemical cycling, agriculture, and bioremediation. However, identifying the ecological processes that govern microbial community assembly and disentangling the relative impacts of those processes has proven challenging. Here, we propose that this discord is due to microbial systems being studied at different spatial, temporal, and phylogenetic scales. We argue that different processes dominate at different scales, and that through a more explicit consideration of spatial, temporal, and phylogenetic grains and extents (the two components of scale) a more accurate, clear, and useful understanding of microbial community assembly can be developed. We demonstrate the value of applying ecological concepts of scale to microbiology, specifically examining their application to nestedness, legacy effects, and taxa-area relationships of microbial systems. These proposed considerations of scale will help resolve long-standing debates in microbial ecology regarding the processes determining the assembly of microbial communities, and provide organizing principles around which hypotheses and theories can be developed.

Effect of the macroalgae Asparagopsis taxiformis on methane production and rumen microbiome assemblage

BACKGROUND

Recent studies using batch-fermentation suggest that the red macroalgae Asparagopsis taxiformis has the potential to reduce methane (CH4) production from beef cattle by up to ~ 99% when added to Rhodes grass hay; a common feed in the Australian beef industry. These experiments have shown significant reductions in CH4 without compromising other fermentation parameters (i.e. volatile fatty acid production) with A. taxiformis organic matter (OM) inclusion rates of up to 5%. In the study presented here, A. taxiformis was evaluated for its ability to reduce methane production from dairy cattle fed a mixed ration widely utilized in California, the largest milk producing state in the US.

RESULTS

Fermentation in a semi-continuous in-vitro rumen system suggests that A. taxiformis can reduce methane production from enteric fermentation in dairy cattle by 95% when added at a 5% OM inclusion rate without any obvious negative impacts on volatile fatty acid production. High-throughput 16S ribosomal RNA (rRNA) gene amplicon sequencing showed that seaweed amendment effects rumen microbiome consistent with the Anna Karenina hypothesis, with increased β-diversity, over time scales of approximately 3 days. The relative abundance of methanogens in the fermentation vessels amended with A. taxiformis decreased significantly compared to control vessels, but this reduction in methanogen abundance was only significant when averaged over the course of the experiment. Alternatively, significant reductions of CH4 in the A. taxiformis amended vessels was measured in the early stages of the experiment. This suggests that A. taxiformis has an immediate effect on the metabolic functionality of rumen methanogens whereas its impact on microbiome assemblage, specifically methanogen abundance, is delayed.

CONCLUSIONS

The methane reducing effect of A. taxiformis during rumen fermentation makes this macroalgae a promising candidate as a biotic methane mitigation strategy for dairy cattle. But its effect in-vivo (i.e. in dairy cattle) remains to be investigated in animal trials. Furthermore, to obtain a holistic understanding of the biochemistry responsible for the significant reduction of methane, gene expression profiles of the rumen microbiome and the host animal are warranted.

Phylogenetically Novel Uncultured Microbial Cells Dominate Earth Microbiomes

To describe a microbe's physiology, including its metabolism, environmental roles, and growth characteristics, it must be grown in a laboratory culture. Unfortunately, many phylogenetically novel groups have never been cultured, so their physiologies have only been inferred from genomics and environmental characteristics. Although the diversity, or number of different taxonomic groups, of uncultured clades has been studied well, their global abundances, or numbers of cells in any given environment, have not been assessed. We quantified the degree of similarity of 16S rRNA gene sequences from diverse environments in publicly available metagenome and metatranscriptome databases, which we show have far less of the culture bias present in primer-amplified 16S rRNA gene surveys, to those of their nearest cultured relatives. Whether normalized to scaffold read depths or not, the highest abundances of metagenomic 16S rRNA gene sequences belong to phylogenetically novel uncultured groups in seawater, freshwater, terrestrial subsurface, soil, hypersaline environments, marine sediment, hot springs, hydrothermal vents, nonhuman hosts, snow, and bioreactors (22% to 87% uncultured genera to classes and 0% to 64% uncultured phyla). The exceptions were human and human-associated environments, which were dominated by cultured genera (45% to 97%). We estimate that uncultured genera and phyla could comprise 7.3 × 1029 (81%) and 2.2 × 1029 (25%) of microbial cells, respectively. Uncultured phyla were overrepresented in metatranscriptomes relative to metagenomes (46% to 84% of sequences in a given environment), suggesting that they are viable. Therefore, uncultured microbes, often from deeply phylogenetically divergent groups, dominate nonhuman environments on Earth, and their undiscovered physiologies may matter for Earth systems. IMPORTANCE In the past few decades, it has become apparent that most of the microbial diversity on Earth has never been characterized in laboratory cultures. We show that these unknown microbes, sometimes called "microbial dark matter," are numerically dominant in all major environments on Earth, with the exception of the human body, where most of the microbes have been cultured. We also estimate that about one-quarter of the population of microbial cells on Earth belong to phyla with no cultured relatives, suggesting that these never-before-studied organisms may be important for ecosystem functions. Author Video: An author video summary of this article is available.

A communal catalogue reveals Earth's multiscale microbial diversity

Our growing awareness of the microbial world's importance and diversity contrasts starkly with our limited understanding of its fundamental structure. Despite recent advances in DNA sequencing, a lack of standardized protocols and common analytical frameworks impedes comparisons among studies, hindering the development of global inferences about microbial life on Earth. Here we present a meta-analysis of microbial community samples collected by hundreds of researchers for the Earth Microbiome Project. Coordinated protocols and new analytical methods, particularly the use of exact sequences instead of clustered operational taxonomic units, enable bacterial and archaeal ribosomal RNA gene sequences to be followed across multiple studies and allow us to explore patterns of diversity at an unprecedented scale. The result is both a reference database giving global context to DNA sequence data and a framework for incorporating data from future studies, fostering increasingly complete characterization of Earth's microbial diversity.

Urban greenness influences airborne bacterial community composition

Urban green space provides health benefits for city dwellers, and new evidence suggests that microorganisms associated with soil and vegetation could play a role. While airborne microorganisms are ubiquitous in urban areas, the influence of nearby vegetation on airborne microbial communities remains poorly understood. We examined airborne microbial communities in parks and parking lots in Eugene, Oregon, using high-throughput sequencing of the bacterial 16S rRNA gene on the Illumina MiSeq platform to identify bacterial taxa, and GIS to measure vegetation cover in buffer zones of different diameters. Our goal was to explore variation among highly vegetated (parks) versus non-vegetated (parking lots) urban environments. A secondary objective was to evaluate passive versus active collection methods for outdoor airborne microbial sampling. Airborne bacterial communities from five parks were different from those of five parking lots (p=0.023), although alpha diversity was similar. Direct gradient analysis showed that the proportion of vegetated area within a 50m radius of the sampling station explained 15% of the variation in bacterial community composition. A number of key taxa, including several Acidobacteriaceae were substantially more abundant in parks, while parking lots had higher relative abundance of Acetobacteraceae. Parks had greater beta diversity than parking lots, i.e. individual parks were characterized by unique bacterial signatures, whereas parking lot communities tended to be similar to each other. Although parks and parking lots were selected to form pairs of nearby sites, spatial proximity did not appear to affect compositional similarity. Our results also showed that passive and active collection methods gave comparable results, indicating the "settling dish" method is effective for outdoor airborne sampling. This work sets a foundation for understanding how urban vegetation may impact microbial communities, with potential implications for designing neighborhoods and open space systems that foster better human health.

Marked seasonal variation in the wild mouse gut microbiota

Recent studies have provided an unprecedented view of the microbial communities colonizing captive mice; yet the host and environmental factors that shape the rodent gut microbiota in their natural habitat remain largely unexplored. Here, we present results from a 2-year 16 S ribosomal RNA gene sequencing-based survey of wild wood mice (Apodemus sylvaticus) in two nearby woodlands. Similar to other mammals, wild mice were colonized by 10 bacterial phyla and dominated by the Firmicutes, Bacteroidetes and Proteobacteria. Within the Firmicutes, the Lactobacillus genus was most abundant. Putative bacterial pathogens were widespread and often abundant members of the wild mouse gut microbiota. Among a suite of extrinsic (environmental) and intrinsic (host-related) factors examined, seasonal changes dominated in driving qualitative and quantitative differences in the gut microbiota. In both years examined, we observed a strong seasonal shift in gut microbial community structure, potentially due to the transition from an insect- to a seed-based diet. This involved decreased levels of Lactobacillus, and increased levels of Alistipes (Bacteroidetes phylum) and Helicobacter. We also detected more subtle but statistically significant associations between the gut microbiota and biogeography, sex, reproductive status and co-colonization with enteric nematodes. These results suggest that environmental factors have a major role in shaping temporal variations in microbial community structure within natural populations.

Reconstructing the microbial diversity and function of pre-agricultural tallgrass prairie soils in the United States

Native tallgrass prairie once dominated much of the midwestern United States, but this biome and the soil microbial diversity that once sustained this highly productive system have been almost completely eradicated by decades of agricultural practices. We reconstructed the soil microbial diversity that once existed in this biome by analyzing relict prairie soils and found that the biogeographical patterns were largely driven by changes in the relative abundance of Verrucomicrobia, a poorly studied bacterial phylum that appears to dominate many prairie soils. Shotgun metagenomic data suggested that these spatial patterns were associated with strong shifts in carbon dynamics. We show that metagenomic approaches can be used to reconstruct below-ground biogeochemical and diversity gradients in endangered ecosystems; such information could be used to improve restoration efforts, given that even small changes in below-ground microbial diversity can have important impacts on ecosystem processes.

Global marine bacterial diversity peaks at high latitudes in winter

Genomic approaches to characterizing bacterial communities are revealing significant differences in diversity and composition between environments. But bacterial distributions have not been mapped at a global scale. Although current community surveys are way too sparse to map global diversity patterns directly, there is now sufficient data to fit accurate models of how bacterial distributions vary across different environments and to make global scale maps from these models. We apply this approach to map the global distributions of bacteria in marine surface waters. Our spatially and temporally explicit predictions suggest that bacterial diversity peaks in temperate latitudes across the world's oceans. These global peaks are seasonal, occurring 6 months apart in the two hemispheres, in the boreal and austral winters. This pattern is quite different from the tropical, seasonally consistent diversity patterns observed for most macroorganisms. However, like other marine organisms, surface water bacteria are particularly diverse in regions of high human environmental impacts on the oceans. Our maps provide the first picture of bacterial distributions at a global scale and suggest important differences between the diversity patterns of bacteria compared with other organisms.

PhylOTU: a high-throughput procedure quantifies microbial community diversity and resolves novel taxa from metagenomic data

Microbial diversity is typically characterized by clustering ribosomal RNA (SSU-rRNA) sequences into operational taxonomic units (OTUs). Targeted sequencing of environmental SSU-rRNA markers via PCR may fail to detect OTUs due to biases in priming and amplification. Analysis of shotgun sequenced environmental DNA, known as metagenomics, avoids amplification bias but generates fragmentary, non-overlapping sequence reads that cannot be clustered by existing OTU-finding methods. To circumvent these limitations, we developed PhylOTU, a computational workflow that identifies OTUs from metagenomic SSU-rRNA sequence data through the use of phylogenetic principles and probabilistic sequence profiles. Using simulated metagenomic data, we quantified the accuracy with which PhylOTU clusters reads into OTUs. Comparisons of PCR and shotgun sequenced SSU-rRNA markers derived from the global open ocean revealed that while PCR libraries identify more OTUs per sequenced residue, metagenomic libraries recover a greater taxonomic diversity of OTUs. In addition, we discover novel species, genera and families in the metagenomic libraries, including OTUs from phyla missed by analysis of PCR sequences. Taken together, these results suggest that PhylOTU enables characterization of part of the biosphere currently hidden from PCR-based surveys of diversity?

Plant-derived pyrrolizidine alkaloid protects eggs of a moth (Utetheisa ornatrix) against a parasitoid wasp (Trichogramma ostriniae)

Pyrrolizidine alkaloid (PA), sequestered by the moth Utetheisa ornatrix from its larval food plant, is transmitted by both males and females to the eggs. Males confer PA on the female by seminal infusion, and females pass this gift, together with PA that they themselves procured as larvae, to the eggs. Here we show that PA protects the eggs against parasitization by the chalcidoid wasp, Trichogramma ostriniae. Eggs laid subsequent to a first mating of an Utetheisa female receive most of their PA from the female. The amount they receive from the male is insufficient to provide for full protection. However, female Utetheisa are promiscuous and therefore likely to receive PA on a cumulative basis from their male partners.

Prey capture in a mantid (Gonatista grisea): does geotropy promote success?

Gonatista grisea (Fabricius) is one of many arboreal arthropods and reptiles that orient downwards to ambush prey. To investigate if orienting downwards increases hunting success, a 2 × 2 factorial experiment was performed using mantid orientation (upwards, downwards) and direction of prey approach (posterior, anterior) as factors and prey capture success as the response variable. The results indicated that the mantid captures prey equally well when oriented upwards or downwards but that it is less effective when the prey approaches posteriorly. Because prey likely climb upwards more frequently than downwards, these findings suggest that G. grisea increases its hunting success with its downwards orientation.