Inferring host range dynamics from comparative data: the protozoan parasites of new world monkeys

Landscape drives zoonotic malaria prevalence in non-human primates

Zoonotic disease dynamics in wildlife hosts are rarely quantified at macroecological scales due to the lack of systematic surveys. Non-human primates (NHPs) host Plasmodium knowlesi, a zoonotic malaria of public health concern and the main barrier to malaria elimination in Southeast Asia. Understanding of regional P. knowlesi infection dynamics in wildlife is limited. Here, we systematically assemble reports of NHP P. knowlesi and investigate geographic determinants of prevalence in reservoir species. Meta-analysis of 6322 NHPs from 148 sites reveals that prevalence is heterogeneous across Southeast Asia, with low overall prevalence and high estimates for Malaysian Borneo. We find that regions exhibiting higher prevalence in NHPs overlap with human infection hotspots. In wildlife and humans, parasite transmission is linked to land conversion and fragmentation. By assembling remote sensing data and fitting statistical models to prevalence at multiple spatial scales, we identify novel relationships between P. knowlesi in NHPs and forest fragmentation. This suggests that higher prevalence may be contingent on habitat complexity, which would begin to explain observed geographic variation in parasite burden. These findings address critical gaps in understanding regional P. knowlesi epidemiology and indicate that prevalence in simian reservoirs may be a key spatial driver of human spillover risk.

Identifying co-phylogenetic hotspots for zoonotic disease

The incidence of zoonotic diseases is increasing worldwide, which makes identifying parasites likely to become zoonotic and hosts likely to harbour zoonotic parasites a critical concern. Prior work indicates that there is a higher risk of zoonotic spillover accruing from closely related hosts and from hosts that are infected with a high phylogenetic diversity of parasites. This suggests that host and parasite evolutionary history may be important drivers of spillover, but identifying whether host-parasite associations are more strongly structured by the host, parasite or both requires co-phylogenetic analyses that combine host-parasite association data with host and parasite phylogenies. Here, we use host-parasite datasets containing associations between helminth taxa and free-range mammals in combination with phylogenetic models to explore whether host, parasite, or both host and parasite evolutionary history influences host-parasite associations. We find that host phylogenetic history is most important for driving patterns of helminth-mammal association, indicating that zoonoses are most likely to come from a host's close relatives. More broadly, our results suggest that co-phylogenetic analyses across broad taxonomic scales can provide a novel perspective for surveying potential emerging infectious diseases. This article is part of the theme issue 'Infectious disease macroecology: parasite diversity and dynamics across the globe'.

The phylogenetic range of bacterial and viral pathogens of vertebrates

Many major human pathogens are multihost pathogens, able to infect other vertebrate species. Describing the general patterns of host-pathogen associations across pathogen taxa is therefore important to understand risk factors for human disease emergence. However, there is a lack of comprehensive curated databases for this purpose, with most previous efforts focusing on viruses. Here, we report the largest manually compiled host-pathogen association database, covering 2,595 bacteria and viruses infecting 2,656 vertebrate hosts. We also build a tree for host species using nine mitochondrial genes, giving a quantitative measure of the phylogenetic similarity of hosts. We find that the majority of bacteria and viruses are specialists infecting only a single host species, with bacteria having a significantly higher proportion of specialists compared to viruses. Conversely, multihost viruses have a more restricted host range than multihost bacteria. We perform multiple analyses of factors associated with pathogen richness per host species and the pathogen traits associated with greater host range and zoonotic potential. We show that factors previously identified as important for zoonotic potential in viruses-such as phylogenetic range, research effort, and being vector-borne-are also predictive in bacteria. We find that the fraction of pathogens shared between two hosts decreases with the phylogenetic distance between them. Our results suggest that host phylogenetic similarity is the primary factor for host-switching in pathogens.

The Evolutionary Genomics of Host Specificity in Staphylococcus aureus

Staphylococcus aureus is an important human bacterial pathogen that has a cosmopolitan host range, including livestock, companion and wild animal species. Genomic and epidemiological studies show that S. aureus has jumped between host species many times over its evolutionary history. These jumps have involved the dynamic gain and loss of host-specific adaptive genes, usually located on mobile genetic elements. The same functional elements are often consistently gained in jumps into a particular species. Further sampling of diverse animal species is likely to uncover an even broader host range and greater genetic diversity of S. aureus than is already known, and understanding S. aureus host specificity in these hosts will mitigate the risks of emergent human and livestock strains.

Deeply conserved susceptibility in a multi-host, multi-parasite system

Variation in susceptibility is ubiquitous in multi-host, multi-parasite assemblages, and can have profound implications for ecology and evolution in these systems. The extent to which susceptibility to parasites is phylogenetically conserved among hosts can be revealed by analysing diverse regional communities. We screened for haemosporidian parasites in 3983 birds representing 40 families and 523 species, spanning ~ 4500 m elevation in the tropical Andes. To quantify the influence of host phylogeny on infection status, we applied Bayesian phylogenetic multilevel models that included a suite of environmental, spatial, temporal, life history and ecological predictors. We found evidence of deeply conserved susceptibility across the avian tree; host phylogeny explained substantial variation in infection status, and results were robust to phylogenetic uncertainty. Our study suggests that susceptibility is governed, in part, by conserved, latent aspects of anti-parasite defence. This demonstrates the importance of deep phylogeny for understanding present-day ecological interactions.

The dynamics of preferential host switching: Host phylogeny as a key predictor of parasite distribution

Parasites often jump to and become established in a new host species. There is much evidence that the probability of such host shifts decreases with increasing phylogenetic distance between donor and recipient hosts, but the consequences of such preferential host switching remain little explored. We develop a computational model to investigate the dynamics of parasite host shifts in the presence of this phylogenetic distance effect. In this model, a clade of parasites evolves on an evolving clade of host species where parasites can cospeciate with their hosts, switch to new hosts, speciate within hosts or become extinct. Our model predicts that host phylogenies are major determinants of parasite distributions across trees. In particular, we predict that trees consisting of few large clades of host species and those with fast species turnover should harbor more parasites than trees with many small clades and those that diversify more slowly. Within trees, large clades are predicted to exhibit a higher fraction of infected species than small clades. We discuss our results in the light of recent cophylogenetic studies in a wide range of host-parasite systems.

Host shifts result in parallel genetic changes when viruses evolve in closely related species

Host shifts, where a pathogen invades and establishes in a new host species, are a major source of emerging infectious diseases. They frequently occur between related host species and often rely on the pathogen evolving adaptations that increase their fitness in the novel host species. To investigate genetic changes in novel hosts, we experimentally evolved replicate lineages of an RNA virus (Drosophila C Virus) in 19 different species of Drosophilidae and deep sequenced the viral genomes. We found a strong pattern of parallel evolution, where viral lineages from the same host were genetically more similar to each other than to lineages from other host species. When we compared viruses that had evolved in different host species, we found that parallel genetic changes were more likely to occur if the two host species were closely related. This suggests that when a virus adapts to one host it might also become better adapted to closely related host species. This may explain in part why host shifts tend to occur between related species, and may mean that when a new pathogen appears in a given species, closely related species may become vulnerable to the new disease.

Host shifts, where a pathogen jumps from one host species to another, are a major source of infectious disease. Hosts shifts are more likely to occur between related host species and often rely on the pathogen evolving adaptations that increase their fitness in the novel host. Here we have investigated how viruses evolve in different host species, by experimentally evolving replicate lineages of an RNA virus in 19 different host species that shared a common ancestor 40 million years ago. We then deep sequenced the genomes of these viruses to examine the genetic changes that have occurred in different host species that vary in their relatedness. We found that parallel mutations–that are indicative of selection–were significantly more likely to occur within viral lineages from the same host, and between viruses evolved in closely related species. This suggests that a mutation that may adapt a virus to a given host, may also adapt it to closely related host species.

The incidence of bacterial endosymbionts in terrestrial arthropods

Intracellular endosymbiotic bacteria are found in many terrestrial arthropods and have a profound influence on host biology. A basic question about these symbionts is why they infect the hosts that they do, but estimating symbiont incidence (the proportion of potential host species that are actually infected) is complicated by dynamic or low prevalence infections. We develop a maximum-likelihood approach to estimating incidence, and testing hypotheses about its variation. We apply our method to a database of screens for bacterial symbionts, containing more than 3600 distinct arthropod species and more than 150 000 individual arthropods. After accounting for sampling bias, we estimate that 52% (CIs: 48-57) of arthropod species are infected with Wolbachia, 24% (CIs: 20-42) with Rickettsia and 13% (CIs: 13-55) with Cardinium. We then show that these differences stem from the significantly reduced incidence of Rickettsia and Cardinium in most hexapod orders, which might be explained by evolutionary differences in the arthropod immune response. Finally, we test the prediction that symbiont incidence should be higher in speciose host clades. But while some groups do show a trend for more infection in species-rich families, the correlations are generally weak and inconsistent. These results argue against a major role for parasitic symbionts in driving arthropod diversification.

The causes and consequences of changes in virulence following pathogen host shifts

Emerging infectious diseases are often the result of a host shift, where the pathogen originates from a different host species. Virulence--the harm a pathogen does to its host-can be extremely high following a host shift (for example Ebola, HIV, and SARs), while other host shifts may go undetected as they cause few symptoms in the new host. Here we examine how virulence varies across host species by carrying out a large cross infection experiment using 48 species of Drosophilidae and an RNA virus. Host shifts resulted in dramatic variation in virulence, with benign infections in some species and rapid death in others. The change in virulence was highly predictable from the host phylogeny, with hosts clustering together in distinct clades displaying high or low virulence. High levels of virulence are associated with high viral loads, and this may determine the transmission rate of the virus.

The evolution and genetics of virus host shifts

Emerging viral diseases are often the product of a host shift, where a pathogen jumps from its original host into a novel species. Phylogenetic studies show that host shifts are a frequent event in the evolution of most pathogens, but why pathogens successfully jump between some host species but not others is only just becoming clear. The susceptibility of potential new hosts can vary enormously, with close relatives of the natural host typically being the most susceptible. Often, pathogens must adapt to successfully infect a novel host, for example by evolving to use different cell surface receptors, to escape the immune response, or to ensure they are transmitted by the new host. In viruses there are often limited molecular solutions to achieve this, and the same sequence changes are often seen each time a virus infects a particular host. These changes may come at a cost to other aspects of the pathogen's fitness, and this may sometimes prevent host shifts from occurring. Here we examine how these evolutionary factors affect patterns of host shifts and disease emergence.