A framework for understanding climate change impacts through non-compensatory intra- and interspecific climate change responses

Understanding and predicting population responses to climate change is a crucial challenge. A key component of population responses to climate change are cases in which focal biological rates (e.g., population growth rates) change in response to climate change due to non-compensatory effects of changes in the underlying components (e.g., birth and death rates) determining the focal rates. We refer to these responses as non-compensatory climate change effects. As differential responses of biological rates to climate change have been documented in a variety of systems and arise at multiple levels of organization within and across species, non-compensatory effects may be nearly ubiquitous. Yet, how non-compensatory climate change responses combine and scale to influence the demographics of populations is often unclear and requires mapping them to the birth and death rates underlying population change. We provide a flexible framework for incorporating non-compensatory changes in upstream rates within and among species and mapping their consequences for additional downstream rates across scales to their eventual effects on population growth rates. Throughout, we provide specific examples and potential applications of the framework. We hope this framework helps to enhance our understanding of and unify research on population responses to climate change.

Thermal niche partitioning and phenology of Nearctic and Palearctic flea (Siphonaptera) communities on rodents (Mammalia: Rodentia) from five ecoregions

Seasonality of fleas (Siphonaptera) may be due to species competition, prompting the idea that flea species partition temperature, along with correlated variables such as moisture (thermal-niche partitioning hypothesis). I compared the fleas of five rodent-flea communities described from the literature for thermal-niche optima by fitting non-linear LRF (Lobry-Rosso-Flandrois) curves to examine whether flea species in a community show distinct, partitioned thermal niches. LRF curves estimate physiological parameters of temperature minimum, optimum, maximum, and maximum abundance, and facilitate comparison between species by summarizing seasonal data. Flea-communities were on Nearctic Southern flying squirrel (Glaucomys volans volans), Richardson's ground-squirrel (Urocitellus richardsonii), North American deer-mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus), and Palearctic Midday jird (Meriones meridianus), and Wagner's gerbil (Dipodillus dasyurus). Flea communities appeared to show seasonality consistent with thermal-niche partitioning. Several flea families and genera had characteristic thermal niches: Ceratophyllidae had broad tolerance to extreme temperature, Leptopsyllidae (one species in this study) to cold, and Pulicidae to hot. In contrast, at the local, species level, climatic speciation could be significant in flea diversification. Non-competition hypotheses (environmental filtering, neutrality) require testing, too. Thermal-niche partitioning may increase flea species richness on hosts and could occur in other insect and plant communities. Implications for biodiversity conservation and disease ecology under global warming are wide-ranging.

Resource limitation determines realized thermal performance of consumers in trophodynamic models

Recent work has demonstrated that changes in resource availability can alter a consumer's thermal performance curve (TPC). When resources decline, the optimal temperature and breadth of thermal performance also decline, leading to a greater risk of warming than predicted by static TPCs. We investigate the effect of temperature on coupled consumer-resource dynamics, focusing on the potential for changes in the consumer TPC to alter extinction risk. Coupling consumer and resource dynamics generally reduces the potential for resource decline to exacerbate the effects of warming via changes to the TPC due to a reduction in top-down control when consumers near the limits of their thermal performance curve. However, if resources are more sensitive to warming, consumer TPCs can be reshaped by declining resources, leading to increased extinction risk. Our work elucidates the role of top-down and bottom-up regulation in determining the extent to which changes in resource density alter consumer TPCs.

How phenological tracking shapes species and communities in non-stationary environments

Climate change alters the environments of all species. Predicting species responses requires understanding how species track environmental change, and how such tracking shapes communities. Growing empirical evidence suggests that how species track phenologically - how an organism shifts the timing of major biological events in response to the environment - is linked to species performance and community structure. Such research tantalizingly suggests a potential framework to predict the winners and losers of climate change, and the future communities we can expect. But developing this framework requires far greater efforts to ground empirical studies of phenological tracking in relevant ecological theory. Here we review the concept of phenological tracking in empirical studies and through the lens of coexistence theory to show why a community-level perspective is critical to accurate predictions with climate change. While much current theory for tracking ignores the importance of a multi-species context, basic community assembly theory predicts that competition will drive variation in tracking and trade-offs with other traits. We highlight how existing community assembly theory can help understand tracking in stationary and non-stationary systems. But major advances in predicting the species- and community-level consequences of climate change will require advances in theoretical and empirical studies. We outline a path forward built on greater efforts to integrate priority effects into modern coexistence theory, improved empirical estimates of multivariate environmental change, and clearly defined estimates of phenological tracking and its underlying environmental cues.

Persistence of tri-trophic interactions in seasonal environments

The interplay between species interactions and environmental variation is well-understood for pairwise interactions but not for multi-trophic interactions. Understanding how such interactions persist in a thermally variable environment is particularly important given that most biodiversity on the planet consists of ectotherms whose body temperature depends on the environmental temperature. Here we present a trait-based mathematical framework for investigating how tri-trophic food chains persist in seasonal environments. We report two key findings. First, the persistence of the tri-trophic interaction is enhanced if species at upper trophic levels (e.g. top predators) are more cold-adapted than those at lower levels (e.g. basal resources) by virtue of lower thermal optima, wider response breadths and lower mortality within the favourable temperature range. The important implication is that the assembly and persistence of multi-trophic interactions requires that species at lower trophic levels be somewhat maladapted to their ambient thermal environment, as in the case of recent invasions. Second, differential sensitivity to thermally varying environments provides a mechanistic explanation for the conflict of interest between the intermediate consumer and top predator. The same cold-adaptations that increase the consumer's ability to increase when rare deter the predator's ability to do so. Thus, being well-adapted to its thermal environment makes the intermediate consumer better able to acquire resources and avoid predators. We predict that the hierarchy in cold-adaptation should constrain the number of trophic levels that can be supported in a given thermal environment, and that ectotherm food chain lengths should increase with increasing latitude because larger-amplitude seasonal fluctuations generate more opportunities for species to diverge in their thermal optima.

Ontogenetic variation in thermal sensitivity shapes insect ecological responses to climate change

Insects have distinct life stages that can differ in their responses to environmental factors. We discuss empirical evidence and theoretical models for ontogenetic variation in thermal sensitivity and performance curves (TPCs). Data on lower thermal limits for development (T₀) demonstrate variation between stages within a species that is of comparable magnitude to variation among species; we illustrate the consequences of such ontogenetic variation for developmental responses to changing temperature. Ontogenetic variation in optimal temperatures and upper thermal limits has been reported in some systems, but current data are too limited to identify general patterns. The shapes of TPCs for different fitness components such as juvenile survival, adult fecundity, and generation time differ in characteristic ways, with important consequences for understanding fitness in varying thermal environments. We highlight a theoretical framework for incorporating ontogenetic variation into process-based models of population responses to seasonal variation and climate change.