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Pfenning-Butterworth A, Buckley LB, Drake JM, Farner JE, Farrell MJ, Gehman ALM, Mordecai EA, Stephens PR, Gittleman JL, Davies TJ. Interconnecting global threats: climate change, biodiversity loss, and infectious diseases. Lancet Planet Health 2024; 8:e270-e283. [PMID: 38580428 PMCID: PMC11090248 DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(24)00021-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/03/2023] [Revised: 12/06/2023] [Accepted: 02/06/2024] [Indexed: 04/07/2024]
Abstract
The concurrent pressures of rising global temperatures, rates and incidence of species decline, and emergence of infectious diseases represent an unprecedented planetary crisis. Intergovernmental reports have drawn focus to the escalating climate and biodiversity crises and the connections between them, but interactions among all three pressures have been largely overlooked. Non-linearities and dampening and reinforcing interactions among pressures make considering interconnections essential to anticipating planetary challenges. In this Review, we define and exemplify the causal pathways that link the three global pressures of climate change, biodiversity loss, and infectious disease. A literature assessment and case studies show that the mechanisms between certain pairs of pressures are better understood than others and that the full triad of interactions is rarely considered. Although challenges to evaluating these interactions-including a mismatch in scales, data availability, and methods-are substantial, current approaches would benefit from expanding scientific cultures to embrace interdisciplinarity and from integrating animal, human, and environmental perspectives. Considering the full suite of connections would be transformative for planetary health by identifying potential for co-benefits and mutually beneficial scenarios, and highlighting where a narrow focus on solutions to one pressure might aggravate another.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Lauren B Buckley
- Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - John M Drake
- School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA; Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA
| | | | - Maxwell J Farrell
- Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; School of Biodiversity, One Health & Veterinary Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Alyssa-Lois M Gehman
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; Hakai Institute, Calvert, BC, Canada
| | - Erin A Mordecai
- Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Patrick R Stephens
- Department of Integrative Biology, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, OK, USA
| | - John L Gittleman
- School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA; Nicholas School for the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA
| | - T Jonathan Davies
- Department of Botany, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; Department of Forest and Conservation Sciences, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada.
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2
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Johnson CA, Ren R, Buckley LB. Temperature Sensitivity of Fitness Components across Life Cycles Drives Insect Responses to Climate Change. Am Nat 2023; 202:753-766. [PMID: 38033177 DOI: 10.1086/726896] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/02/2023]
Abstract
AbstractThermal performance curves (TPCs) are increasingly used as a convenient approach to predict climate change impacts on ectotherms that accounts for organismal thermal sensitivity; however, directly applying TPCs to temperature data to estimate fitness has yielded contrasting predictions depending on assumptions regarding climate variability. We compare direct application of TPCs to an approach integrating TPCs for different fitness components (e.g., per capita birth rate, adult life span) across ectotherm life cycles into a population dynamic model, which we independently validated with census data and applied to hemipteran insect populations across latitude. The population model predicted that climate change will reduce insect fitness more at higher latitudes due to its effects on survival but will reduce net reproductive rate more at lower latitudes due to its effects on fecundity. Directly applying TPCs underestimated climate change impacts on fitness relative to incorporating the TPCs into the population model due to simplifying survival dynamics across the life cycle. The population model predicted that climate change will reduce mean insect density and increase population variability at higher latitudes via reduced survival, despite faster development and a longer activity period. Our study highlights the importance of considering how multiple fitness components respond to climate variability across the life cycle to better understand and anticipate the ecological consequence of climate change.
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Jones GM, Goldberg JF, Wilcox TM, Buckley LB, Parr CL, Linck EB, Fountain ED, Schwartz MK. Fire-adapted traits in animals. Trends Ecol Evol 2023; 38:1117-1118. [PMID: 37805365 DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2023.09.016] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/15/2023] [Revised: 09/20/2023] [Accepted: 09/25/2023] [Indexed: 10/09/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Gavin M Jones
- USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Albuquerque, NM 87102, USA.
| | - Joshua F Goldberg
- USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Albuquerque, NM 87102, USA
| | - Taylor M Wilcox
- National Genomics Center for Fish and Wildlife Conservation, USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Missoula, MT 59801, USA
| | - Lauren B Buckley
- Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
| | - Catherine L Parr
- Department of Earth, Ocean, and Ecological Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, L3 5TR, UK; Department of Zoology and Entomology, University of Pretoria, Hatfield 0028, South Africa; School of Animal, Plant, and Environmental Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Wits 2050, South Africa
| | - Ethan B Linck
- Department of Ecology, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT 59717, USA
| | - Emily D Fountain
- Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI 53706, USA
| | - Michael K Schwartz
- National Genomics Center for Fish and Wildlife Conservation, USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Missoula, MT 59801, USA
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4
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Jones GM, Goldberg JF, Wilcox TM, Buckley LB, Parr CL, Linck EB, Fountain ED, Schwartz MK. Fire-driven animal evolution in the Pyrocene. Trends Ecol Evol 2023; 38:1072-1084. [PMID: 37479555 DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2023.06.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/17/2023] [Revised: 06/02/2023] [Accepted: 06/06/2023] [Indexed: 07/23/2023]
Abstract
Fire regimes are a major agent of evolution in terrestrial animals. Changing fire regimes and the capacity for rapid evolution in wild animal populations suggests the potential for rapid, fire-driven adaptive animal evolution in the Pyrocene. Fire drives multiple modes of evolutionary change, including stabilizing, directional, disruptive, and fluctuating selection, and can strongly influence gene flow and genetic drift. Ongoing and future research in fire-driven animal evolution will benefit from further development of generalizable hypotheses, studies conducted in highly responsive taxa, and linking fire-adapted phenotypes to their underlying genetic basis. A better understanding of evolutionary responses to fire has the potential to positively influence conservation strategies that embrace evolutionary resilience to fire in the Pyrocene.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gavin M Jones
- USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Albuquerque, NM 87102, USA.
| | - Joshua F Goldberg
- USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Albuquerque, NM 87102, USA
| | - Taylor M Wilcox
- National Genomics Center for Fish and Wildlife Conservation, USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Missoula, MT 59801, USA
| | - Lauren B Buckley
- Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
| | - Catherine L Parr
- Department of Earth, Ocean and Ecological Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, L3 5TR, UK; Department of Zoology and Entomology, University of Pretoria, Pretoria 0028, South Africa; School of Animal, Plant and Environmental Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Wits 2050, South Africa
| | - Ethan B Linck
- Department of Zoology and Physiology, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY 82071, USA
| | - Emily D Fountain
- Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI 53706, USA
| | - Michael K Schwartz
- National Genomics Center for Fish and Wildlife Conservation, USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Missoula, MT 59801, USA
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5
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Briscoe NJ, Morris SD, Mathewson PD, Buckley LB, Jusup M, Levy O, Maclean IMD, Pincebourde S, Riddell EA, Roberts JA, Schouten R, Sears MW, Kearney MR. Mechanistic forecasts of species responses to climate change: The promise of biophysical ecology. Glob Chang Biol 2023; 29:1451-1470. [PMID: 36515542 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16557] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 20.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/07/2022] [Accepted: 11/10/2022] [Indexed: 05/20/2023]
Abstract
A core challenge in global change biology is to predict how species will respond to future environmental change and to manage these responses. To make such predictions and management actions robust to novel futures, we need to accurately characterize how organisms experience their environments and the biological mechanisms by which they respond. All organisms are thermodynamically connected to their environments through the exchange of heat and water at fine spatial and temporal scales and this exchange can be captured with biophysical models. Although mechanistic models based on biophysical ecology have a long history of development and application, their use in global change biology remains limited despite their enormous promise and increasingly accessible software. We contend that greater understanding and training in the theory and methods of biophysical ecology is vital to expand their application. Our review shows how biophysical models can be implemented to understand and predict climate change impacts on species' behavior, phenology, survival, distribution, and abundance. It also illustrates the types of outputs that can be generated, and the data inputs required for different implementations. Examples range from simple calculations of body temperature at a particular site and time, to more complex analyses of species' distribution limits based on projected energy and water balances, accounting for behavior and phenology. We outline challenges that currently limit the widespread application of biophysical models relating to data availability, training, and the lack of common software ecosystems. We also discuss progress and future developments that could allow these models to be applied to many species across large spatial extents and timeframes. Finally, we highlight how biophysical models are uniquely suited to solve global change biology problems that involve predicting and interpreting responses to environmental variability and extremes, multiple or shifting constraints, and novel abiotic or biotic environments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Natalie J Briscoe
- School of Ecosystem and Forest Science, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Shane D Morris
- School of BioSciences, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Paul D Mathewson
- Department of Zoology, University of Wisconsin Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, USA
| | - Lauren B Buckley
- Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Marko Jusup
- Fisheries Resources Research Institute, Fisheries Research Agency, Yokohama, Japan
| | - Ofir Levy
- School of Zoology, Faculty of Life Sciences, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
| | - Ilya M D Maclean
- School of Biosciences, Centre for Ecology and Conservation, Cornwall, UK
| | | | - Eric A Riddell
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Organismal Biology, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa, USA
| | - Jessica A Roberts
- School of BioSciences, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Rafael Schouten
- Globe Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Michael W Sears
- Department of Biological Sciences, Clemson University, Clemson, South Carolina, USA
| | - Michael Ray Kearney
- School of BioSciences, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
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6
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Halpern BS, Boettiger C, Dietze MC, Gephart JA, Gonzalez P, Grimm NB, Groffman PM, Gurevitch J, Hobbie SE, Komatsu KJ, Kroeker KJ, Lahr HJ, Lodge DM, Lortie CJ, Lowndes JSS, Micheli F, Possingham HP, Ruckelshaus MH, Scarborough C, Wood CL, Wu GC, Aoyama L, Arroyo EE, Bahlai CA, Beller EE, Blake RE, Bork KS, Branch TA, Brown NEM, Brun J, Bruna EM, Buckley LB, Burnett JL, Castorani MCN, Cheng SH, Cohen SC, Couture JL, Crowder LB, Dee LE, Dias AS, Diaz‐Maroto IJ, Downs MR, Dudney JC, Ellis EC, Emery KA, Eurich JG, Ferriss BE, Fredston A, Furukawa H, Gagné SA, Garlick SR, Garroway CJ, Gaynor KM, González AL, Grames EM, Guy‐Haim T, Hackett E, Hallett LM, Harms TK, Haulsee DE, Haynes KJ, Hazen EL, Jarvis RM, Jones K, Kandlikar GS, Kincaid DW, Knope ML, Koirala A, Kolasa J, Kominoski JS, Koricheva J, Lancaster LT, Lawlor JA, Lowman HE, Muller‐Karger FE, Norman KEA, Nourn N, O'Hara CC, Ou SX, Padilla‐Gamino JL, Pappalardo P, Peek RA, Pelletier D, Plont S, Ponisio LC, Portales‐Reyes C, Provete DB, Raes EJ, Ramirez‐Reyes C, Ramos I, Record S, Richardson AJ, Salguero‐Gómez R, Satterthwaite EV, Schmidt C, Schwartz AJ, See CR, Shea BD, Smith RS, Sokol ER, Solomon CT, Spanbauer T, Stefanoudis PV, Sterner BW, Sudbrack V, Tonkin JD, Townes AR, Valle M, Walter JA, Wheeler KI, Wieder WR, Williams DR, Winter M, Winterova B, Woodall LC, Wymore AS, Youngflesh C. Priorities for synthesis research in ecology and environmental science. Ecosphere 2023. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.4342] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/13/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Benjamin S. Halpern
- National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis University of California Santa Barbara California USA
- Bren School of Environmental Science and Management University of California Santa Barbara California USA
| | - Carl Boettiger
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management University of California Berkeley California USA
| | - Michael C. Dietze
- Department of Earth & Environment Boston University Boston Massachusetts USA
| | - Jessica A. Gephart
- Department of Environmental Science American University Washington District of Columbia USA
| | - Patrick Gonzalez
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management University of California Berkeley California USA
- Institute for Parks, People, and Biodiversity University of California Berkeley California USA
| | - Nancy B. Grimm
- School of Life Sciences Arizona State University Tempe Arizona USA
| | - Peter M. Groffman
- City University of New York Advanced Science Research Center at the Graduate Center New York New York USA
- Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies Millbrook New York USA
| | - Jessica Gurevitch
- Department of Ecology and Evolution Stony Brook University Stony Brook New York USA
| | - Sarah E. Hobbie
- Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior University of Minnesota St. Paul Minnesota USA
| | | | - Kristy J. Kroeker
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology University of California Santa Cruz Santa Cruz California USA
| | - Heather J. Lahr
- National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis University of California Santa Barbara California USA
| | - David M. Lodge
- Cornell Atkinson Center for Sustainability Cornell University Ithaca New York USA
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Cornell University Ithaca New York USA
| | - Christopher J. Lortie
- National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis University of California Santa Barbara California USA
- Department of Biology York University Toronto Ontario Canada
| | - Julie S. S. Lowndes
- National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis University of California Santa Barbara California USA
| | - Fiorenza Micheli
- Hopkins Marine Station, Oceans Department Stanford University Pacific Grove California USA
- Stanford Center for Ocean Solutions Pacific Grove California USA
| | - Hugh P. Possingham
- Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science (CBCS) The University of Queensland Brisbane Queensland Australia
| | | | - Courtney Scarborough
- National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis University of California Santa Barbara California USA
| | - Chelsea L. Wood
- School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences University of Washington Seattle Washington USA
| | - Grace C. Wu
- Environmental Studies University of California Santa Barbara California USA
| | - Lina Aoyama
- Environmental Studies Program and Department of Biology University of Oregon Eugene Oregon USA
| | - Eva E. Arroyo
- Department of Ecology Evolution and Environmental Biology New York New York USA
| | | | - Erin E. Beller
- Real Estate and Workplace Services Sustainability Team Google Inc. Mountain View California USA
| | | | | | - Trevor A. Branch
- School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences University of Washington Seattle Washington USA
| | - Norah E. M. Brown
- Department of Biology University of Victoria Victoria British Columbia Canada
| | - Julien Brun
- National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis University of California Santa Barbara California USA
| | - Emilio M. Bruna
- Department of Wildlife Ecology & Conservation University of Florida Gainesville Florida USA
| | - Lauren B. Buckley
- Department of Biology University of Washington Seattle Washington USA
| | - Jessica L. Burnett
- Core Science Systems Science Analytics and Synthesis U.S. Geological Survey, 8th and Kipling, Denver Federal Center Lakewood Colorado USA
| | - Max C. N. Castorani
- Department of Environmental Sciences University of Virginia Charlottesville Virginia USA
| | - Samantha H. Cheng
- Center for Biodiversity and Conservation American Museum of Natural History New York New York USA
| | - Sarah C. Cohen
- Estuary and Ocean Science Center, Biology Department San Francisco State University San Francisco California USA
| | | | - Larry B. Crowder
- Hopkins Marine Station, Oceans Department Stanford University Pacific Grove California USA
| | - Laura E. Dee
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology University of Colorado Boulder Colorado USA
| | - Arildo S. Dias
- Department of Physical Geography (IPG) Goethe‐Universität Frankfurt (Campus Riedberg) Frankfurt am Main Germany
| | | | - Martha R. Downs
- National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis University of California Santa Barbara California USA
| | - Joan C. Dudney
- Department of Plant Sciences UC Davis Davis California USA
| | - Erle C. Ellis
- Geography & Environmental Systems University of Maryland Baltimore Maryland USA
| | - Kyle A. Emery
- Department of Geography UC Los Angeles Los Angeles California USA
| | | | - Bridget E. Ferriss
- Resource Ecology and Fisheries Management Division Alaska Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA Seattle Washington USA
| | - Alexa Fredston
- Department of Ocean Sciences University of California Santa Cruz California USA
| | - Hikaru Furukawa
- School of Earth and Space Exploration Arizona State University Tempe Arizona USA
| | - Sara A. Gagné
- Department of Geography and Earth Sciences University of North Carolina at Charlotte Charlotte North Carolina USA
| | | | - Colin J. Garroway
- Department of Biological Sciences University of Manitoba Winnipeg Manitoba Canada
| | - Kaitlyn M. Gaynor
- Departments of Zoology and Botany University of British Columbia Vancouver British Columbia Canada
| | - Angélica L. González
- Department of Biology & Center for Computational and Integrative Biology Rutgers University Camden New Jersey USA
| | - Eliza M. Grames
- Department of Biology University of Nevada, Reno Reno Nevada USA
| | - Tamar Guy‐Haim
- National Institute of Oceanography Israel Oceanographic and Limnological Research (IOLR) Haifa Israel
| | - Ed Hackett
- School of Human Evolution & Social Change Arizona State University Tempe Arizona USA
| | - Lauren M. Hallett
- Environmental Studies Program and Department of Biology University of Oregon Eugene Oregon USA
| | - Tamara K. Harms
- Institute of Arctic Biology and Department of Biology & Wildlife University of Alaska Fairbanks Fairbanks Alaska USA
| | - Danielle E. Haulsee
- Hopkins Marine Station, Oceans Department Stanford University Pacific Grove California USA
| | - Kyle J. Haynes
- Blandy Experimental Farm University of Virginia Boyce Virginia USA
| | - Elliott L. Hazen
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology University of California Santa Cruz Santa Cruz California USA
| | - Rebecca M. Jarvis
- School of Science Auckland University of Technology Auckland New Zealand
| | | | - Gaurav S. Kandlikar
- Division of Biological Sciences & Division of Plant Sciences University of Missouri Columbia Missouri USA
| | - Dustin W. Kincaid
- Vermont EPSCoR and Gund Institute for Environment University of Vermont Burlington Vermont USA
| | - Matthew L. Knope
- Department of Biology University of Hawai'i at Hilo Hilo Hawaii USA
| | - Anil Koirala
- Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources University of Georgia Athens Georgia USA
| | - Jurek Kolasa
- Department of Biology McMaster University Hamilton Ontario Canada
| | - John S. Kominoski
- Institute of Environment Florida International University Miami Florida USA
| | - Julia Koricheva
- Department of Biological Sciences Royal Holloway University of London Surrey UK
| | | | - Jake A. Lawlor
- Department of Biology McGill University Montreal Quebec Canada
| | - Heili E. Lowman
- Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Science University of Nevada, Reno Reno Nevada USA
| | | | - Kari E. A. Norman
- Département de sciences biologiques Université de Montréal Montréal Québec Canada
| | - Nan Nourn
- Department of Fisheries and Wildlife Michigan State University East Lansing Michigan USA
| | - Casey C. O'Hara
- Bren School of Environmental Science and Management University of California Santa Barbara California USA
| | - Suzanne X. Ou
- Department of Biology Stanford University Stanford California USA
| | | | - Paula Pappalardo
- Marine Invasions Laboratory Smithsonian Environmental Research Center Tiburon California USA
| | - Ryan A. Peek
- Center for Watershed Sciences University of California Davis California USA
| | - Dominique Pelletier
- UMR DECOD, HALGO, Département Ressources Biologiques et Environnement Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer Lorient France
| | - Stephen Plont
- Department of Biological Sciences Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University Blacksburg Virginia USA
| | - Lauren C. Ponisio
- Institute of Ecology and Evolution, Department of Biology University of Oregon Eugene Oregon USA
| | | | - Diogo B. Provete
- Instituto de Biociências Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso do Sul Campo Grande Brazil
| | - Eric J. Raes
- Minderoo Foundation, Flourishing Oceans Nedlands Western Australia Australia
| | | | - Irene Ramos
- Comisión Nacional para el Conocimiento y Uso de la Biodiversidad (CONABIO) Mexico City Mexico
| | - Sydne Record
- Department of Wildlife, Fisheries, and Conservation Biology University of Maine Orono Maine USA
| | - Anthony J. Richardson
- School of Mathematics and Physics University of Queensland St Lucia Queensland Australia
| | | | - Erin V. Satterthwaite
- California Sea Grant Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego La Jolla California USA
| | - Chloé Schmidt
- Department of Biological Sciences University of Manitoba Winnipeg Manitoba Canada
| | - Aaron J. Schwartz
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology University of Colorado Boulder Colorado USA
| | - Craig R. See
- Center for Ecosystem Science and Society Northern Arizona University Flagstaff Arizona USA
| | - Brendan D. Shea
- Department of Fish and Wildlife Conservation Virginia Tech Blacksburg Virginia USA
| | - Rachel S. Smith
- Department of Environmental Sciences University of Virginia Charlottesville Virginia USA
| | - Eric R. Sokol
- Battelle, National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) Boulder Colorado USA
| | | | - Trisha Spanbauer
- Department of Environmental Sciences/Lake Erie Center University of Toledo Toledo Ohio USA
| | | | | | - Vitor Sudbrack
- Department of Ecology and Evolution University of Lausanne Lausanne Switzerland
| | - Jonathan D. Tonkin
- School of Biological Sciences University of Canterbury Christchurch New Zealand
| | - Ashley R. Townes
- School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences University of Washington Seattle Washington USA
| | - Mireia Valle
- AZTI, Marine Research, Basque Research and Technology Alliance (BRTA) Sukarrieta Spain
| | - Jonathan A. Walter
- Center for Watershed Sciences University of California Davis California USA
| | - Kathryn I. Wheeler
- Department of Earth & Environment Boston University Boston Massachusetts USA
| | - William R. Wieder
- Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, Terrestrial Sciences Section National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder Colorado USA
| | - David R. Williams
- Sustainability Research Institute, School of Earth and Environment University of Leeds Leeds UK
| | - Marten Winter
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle‐Jena‐Leipzig Leipzig Germany
| | - Barbora Winterova
- Department of Botany and Zoology, Faculty of Science Masaryk University Brno Czech Republic
| | - Lucy C. Woodall
- School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences University of Washington Seattle Washington USA
| | - Adam S. Wymore
- Department of Natural Resources and the Environment University of New Hampshire Durham New Hampshire USA
| | - Casey Youngflesh
- Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior Program Michigan State University East Lansing Michigan USA
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7
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Ramonfaur DR, Buckley LB, Arthur VA, Claggett BC, Ndumele CN, Walker KAW, Kitzman DK, Konety SK, Schrack JS, Liu FL, Windham BGW, Palta PP, Coresh JC, Yu BY, Shah AMS. Proteomic biomarkers associated with incident heart failure and frailty in late life. Eur Heart J 2022. [DOI: 10.1093/eurheartj/ehac544.909] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Abstract
Background
Heart failure (HF) and frailty are highly prevalent in late life and commonly co-exist, but the mechanisms underlying their bi-directional relationship are incompletely understood. This study aimed to identify shared molecular pathways associated with incident HF and frailty in late life.
Methods
Among participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study, a communit-based cohort study in the United States, 4,877 plasma proteins were measured using an aptamer-affinity assay (Somascan v4) at study Visit 3 (V3; 1993–1994; n=10,368, age 60±6 years; 822 incident HF events) and at study Visit 5 (V5; 2011–2013; n=3,908, age 75±5 years; 336 incident HF events). Frailty was assessed at V5 using Fried criteria, which incorporates gait speed, grip strength, low energy expenditure, weight loss, and exhaustion. We examined the association of proteins at V3 with incident HF after V3 with Bonferroni corrected P<0.05 using multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression models. For HF-associated proteins at V3, we assessed the association of V5 protein levels with incident HF after V5. For the resulting HF-associated proteins, multivariable logistic regression was used to assess associations of V5 protein values with prevalent frailty at V5 (n=223 cases) and with incident frailty by study Visit 6 (2016–2018; n=152 incident cases). All models adjusted for age, sex, race, hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, BMI, atrial fibrillation, and stroke. The set of HF-related proteins that associated with incident frailty at FDR <0.05 using Benjamini-Hochberg correction was tested for pathway enrichment using the Reactome database.
Results
Of 289 proteins associated with incident HF post-V3 at p<1.0x10–5 (0.05/4,877), 84 were significantly associated with incident HF post-V5 at p<1.7x10–4 (0.05/289). Among 4,131 HF-free participants at V5, 48 of these 84 HF-associated proteins associated with prevalent frailty at p<5.9x10–4 (0.05/84). Among Visit 5 participants who completed a frailty assessment and were free of both prevalent HF and frailty (n=3,908), 31of 48 candidate proteins were also significantly associated with incident frailty at FDR 0.05, 18 of which were significantly associated with incident frailty at p<1.0x10–3 (0.05/48; Figure 1). The 31 proteins associated with incident frailty at FDR 0.05 enriched for collagen biosynthesis, formation, and trimerization (COL28A1, COL6A3, EFEMP1), and cytokine immune pathways and TNF receptor binding (TNFRSF1A and B, VEGFA, B2M, and HAVCR2) in pathway enrichment analysis.
Conclusions
Collagen metabolism and immune pathways may be shared biologic pathways between HF and frailty in late-life.
Funding Acknowledgement
Type of funding sources: Public Institution(s). Main funding source(s): The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study has been funded in whole or in part with Federal funds from the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, National Institutes of Health, Department of Health and Human Services.
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Affiliation(s)
- D R Ramonfaur
- Brigham and Women'S Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Cardiovascular medicine , Boston , United States of America
| | - L B Buckley
- Brigham and Women'S Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Cardiovascular medicine , Boston , United States of America
| | - V A Arthur
- Brigham and Women'S Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Cardiovascular medicine , Boston , United States of America
| | - B C Claggett
- Brigham and Women'S Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Cardiovascular medicine , Boston , United States of America
| | - C N Ndumele
- Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine , Baltimore , United States of America
| | - K A W Walker
- Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine , Baltimore , United States of America
| | - D K Kitzman
- Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine , Baltimore , United States of America
| | - S K Konety
- University of Minnesota , Minneapolis , United States of America
| | - J S Schrack
- Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health , Baltimore , United States of America
| | - F L Liu
- Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health , Baltimore , United States of America
| | - B G W Windham
- The University of Mississippi Medical Center , Jackson , United States of America
| | - P P Palta
- Columbia University Medical Center , New York , United States of America
| | - J C Coresh
- Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health , Baltimore , United States of America
| | - B Y Yu
- University of Texas Health Science Center , Houston , United States of America
| | - A M S Shah
- Brigham and Women'S Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Cardiovascular medicine , Boston , United States of America
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8
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Buckley LB. Temperature-sensitive development shapes insect phenological responses to climate change. Curr Opin Insect Sci 2022; 52:100897. [PMID: 35257968 DOI: 10.1016/j.cois.2022.100897] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/07/2022] [Revised: 02/24/2022] [Accepted: 02/27/2022] [Indexed: 05/23/2023]
Abstract
Phenological shifts vary within and among insect species and locations based on exposure and sensitivity to climate change. Shifts in environmental conditions and seasonal constraints along elevation and latitudinal gradients can select for differences in temperature sensitivity that generate differential phenological shifts. I examine the phenological implications of observed variation in developmental traits. Coupling physiological and ecological insight to link the environmental sensitivity of development to phenology and fitness offers promise in understanding variable phenological responses to climate change and their community and ecosystem implications. A key challenge in establishing these linkages is extrapolating controlled, laboratory experiments to temporally variable, natural environments. New lab and field experiments that incorporate realistic environmental variation are needed to test the extrapolations. Establishing the linkages can aid understanding and anticipating impacts of climate change on insects.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lauren B Buckley
- Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195-1800, USA.
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9
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Abstract
Organisms living in seasonal environments often adjust physiological capacities and sensitivities in response to (or in anticipation of) environment shifts. Such physiological and morphological adjustments (“acclimation” and related terms) inspire opportunities to explore the mechanistic bases underlying these adjustments, to detect cues inducing adjustments, and to elucidate their ecological and evolutionary consequences. Seasonal adjustments (“seasonal acclimation”) can be detected either by measuring physiological capacities and sensitivities of organisms retrieved directly from nature (or outdoor enclosures) in different seasons or less directly by rearing and measuring organisms maintained in the laboratory under conditions that attempt to mimic or track natural ones. But mimicking natural conditions in the laboratory is challenging—doing so requires prior natural-history knowledge of ecologically relevant body temperature cycles, photoperiods, food rations, social environments, among other variables. We argue that traditional laboratory-based conditions usually fail to approximate natural seasonal conditions (temperature, photoperiod, food, “lockdown”). Consequently, whether the resulting acclimation shifts correctly approximate those in nature is uncertain, and sometimes is dubious. We argue that background natural history information provides opportunities to design acclimation protocols that are not only more ecologically relevant, but also serve as templates for testing the validity of traditional protocols. Finally, we suggest several best practices to help enhance ecological realism.
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Affiliation(s)
- Raymond B Huey
- Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Lauren B Buckley
- Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
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10
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Smith JM, Telemeco RS, Briones Ortiz BA, Nufio CR, Buckley LB. High-Elevation Populations of Montane Grasshoppers Exhibit Greater Developmental Plasticity in Response to Seasonal Cues. Front Physiol 2021; 12:738992. [PMID: 34803731 PMCID: PMC8600268 DOI: 10.3389/fphys.2021.738992] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/12/2021] [Accepted: 10/05/2021] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
Populations of insects can differ in how sensitive their development, growth, and performance are to environmental conditions such as temperature and daylength. The environmental sensitivity of development can alter phenology (seasonal timing) and ecology. Warming accelerates development of most populations. However, high-elevation and season-limited populations can exhibit developmental plasticity to either advance or prolong development depending on conditions. We examine how diurnal temperature variation and daylength interact to shape growth, development, and performance of several populations of the montane grasshopper, Melanoplus boulderensis, along an elevation gradient. We then compare these experimental results to observed patterns of development in the field. Although populations exhibited similar thermal sensitivities of development under long-day conditions, development of high-elevation populations was more sensitive to temperature under short-day conditions. This developmental plasticity resulted in rapid development of high elevation populations in short-day conditions with high temperature variability, consistent with their observed capacity for rapid development in the field when conditions are permissive early in the season. Notably, accelerated development generally did not decrease body size or alter body shape. Developmental conditions did not strongly influence thermal tolerance but altered the temperature dependence of performance in difficult-to-predict ways. In sum, the high-elevation and season-limited populations exhibited developmental plasticity that enables advancing or prolonging development consistent with field phenology. Our results suggest these patterns are driven by the thermal sensitivity of development increasing when days are short early in the season compared to when days are long later in the season. Developmental plasticity will shape phenological responses to climate change with potential implications for community and ecosystem structure.
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Affiliation(s)
- Julia M Smith
- Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
| | - Rory S Telemeco
- Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States.,Department of Biology, California State University, Fresno, Fresno, CA, United States
| | - Bryan A Briones Ortiz
- Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States.,School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
| | - César R Nufio
- Howard Hughes Medical Institute, Chevy Chase, VA, United States.,University of Colorado Museum of Natural History, University of Colorado, Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States
| | - Lauren B Buckley
- Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
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11
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Abstract
Evolutionary adaptation to temperature and climate depends on both the extent to which organisms experience spatial and temporal environmental variation (exposure) and how responsive they are to the environmental variation (sensitivity). Theoretical models and experiments suggesting substantial potential for thermal adaptation have largely omitted realistic environmental variation. Environmental variation can drive fluctuations in selection that slow adaptive evolution. We review how carefully filtering environmental conditions based on how organisms experience their environment and further considering organismal sensitivity can improve predictions of thermal adaptation. We contrast taxa differing in exposure and sensitivity. Plasticity can increase the rate of evolutionary adaptation in taxa exposed to pronounced environmental variation. However, forms of plasticity that severely limit exposure, such as behavioral thermoregulation and phenological shifts, can hinder thermal adaptation. Despite examples of rapid thermal adaptation, experimental studies often reveal evolutionary constraints. Further investigating these constraints and issues of timescale and thermal history are needed to predict evolutionary adaptation and, consequently, population persistence in changing and variable environments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lauren B. Buckley
- Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98195‐1800, USA
| | - Joel G. Kingsolver
- Department of Biology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina 27599, USA
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12
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Dornhaus A, Smith B, Hristova K, Buckley LB. How can we fully realize the potential of mathematical and biological models to reintegrate biology? Integr Comp Biol 2021; 61:2244-2254. [PMID: 34160617 DOI: 10.1093/icb/icab142] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Both mathematical models and biological model systems stand as tractable representations of complex biological systems or behaviors. They facilitate research and provide insights, and they can describe general rules. Models that represent biological processes or formalize general hypotheses are essential to any broad understanding. Mathematical or biological models necessarily omit details of the natural systems and thus may ultimately be "incorrect" representations. A key challenge is that tractability requires relatively simple models but simplification can result in models that are incorrect in their qualitative, broad implications if the abstracted details matter. Our paper discusses this tension, and how we can improve our inferences from models. We advocate for further efforts dedicated to model development, improvement, and acceptance by the scientific community, all of which may necessitate a more explicit discussion of the purpose and power of models. We argue that models should play a central role in reintegrating biology as a way to test our integrated understanding of how molecules, cells, organs, organisms, populations, and ecosystems function.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anna Dornhaus
- Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721
| | - Brian Smith
- School of Life Sciences, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287
| | - Kalina Hristova
- Department of Materials Science and Engineering, and Program in Molecular Biology, John Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21218
| | - Lauren B Buckley
- Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98115
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13
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Sun B, Ma L, Wang Y, Mi C, Buckley LB, Levy O, Lu H, Du W. Latitudinal embryonic thermal tolerance and plasticity shape the vulnerability of oviparous species to climate change. ECOL MONOGR 2021. [DOI: 10.1002/ecm.1468] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/11/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Bao‐jun Sun
- Key Laboratory of Animal Ecology and Conservation Biology Institute of Zoology Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100101 China
| | - Liang Ma
- Key Laboratory of Animal Ecology and Conservation Biology Institute of Zoology Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100101 China
| | - Yang Wang
- School of Biological Sciences Hebei Normal University Shijiazhuang China
| | - Chun‐rong Mi
- Key Laboratory of Animal Ecology and Conservation Biology Institute of Zoology Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100101 China
| | - Lauren B. Buckley
- Department of Biology University of Washington Seattle Washington USA
| | - Ofir Levy
- School of Zoology Tel Aviv University Tel Aviv 6997801 Israel
| | - Hong‐liang Lu
- Hangzhou Key Laboratory for Animal Adaptation and Evolution School of Life and Environmental Sciences Hangzhou Normal University Hangzhou Zhejiang 310036 China
| | - Wei‐Guo Du
- Key Laboratory of Animal Ecology and Conservation Biology Institute of Zoology Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100101 China
- Center for Excellence in Animal Evolution and Genetics Chinese Academy of Sciences Kunming 650223 China
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14
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Buckley LB, Graham SI, Nufio CR. Grasshopper species' seasonal timing underlies shifts in phenological overlap in response to climate gradients, variability and change. J Anim Ecol 2021; 90:1252-1263. [PMID: 33630307 DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.13451] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/08/2020] [Accepted: 12/22/2020] [Indexed: 12/01/2022]
Abstract
Species with different life histories and communities that vary in their seasonal constraints tend to shift their phenology (seasonal timing) differentially in response to climate warming. We investigate how these variable phenological shifts aggregate to influence phenological overlap within communities. Phenological advancements of later season species and extended durations of early season species may increase phenological overlap, with implications for species' interactions such as resource competition. We leverage extensive historic (1958-1960) and recent (2006-2015) weekly survey data for communities of grasshoppers along a montane elevation gradient to assess the impact of climate on shifts in the phenology and abundance distributions of species. We then examine how these responses are influenced by the seasonal timing of species and elevation, and how in aggregate they influence degrees of phenological overlap within communities. In warmer years, abundance distributions shift earlier in the season and become broader. Total abundance responds variably among species and we do not detect a significant response across species. Shifts in abundance distributions are not strongly shaped by species' seasonal timing or sites of variable elevations. The area of phenological overlap increases in warmer years due to shifts in the relative seasonal timing of compared species. Species that overwinter as nymphs increasingly overlap with later season species that advance their phenology. The days of phenological overlap also increase in warm years but the response varies across sites of variable elevation. Our phenological overlap metric based on comparing single events-the dates of peak abundance-does not shift significantly with warming. Phenological shifts are more complex than shifts in single dates such as first occurrence. As abundance distributions shift earlier and become broader in warm years, phenological overlap increases. Our analysis suggests that overall grasshopper abundance is relatively robust to climate and associated phenological shifts but we find that increased overlap can decrease abundance, potentially by strengthening species interactions such as resource competition.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lauren B Buckley
- Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Stuart I Graham
- Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - César R Nufio
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA.,University of Colorado Natural History Museum, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA
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15
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Buckley LB, Schoville SD, Williams CM. Shifts in the relative fitness contributions of fecundity and survival in variable and changing environments. J Exp Biol 2021; 224:224/Suppl_1/jeb228031. [DOI: 10.1242/jeb.228031] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/21/2022]
Abstract
ABSTRACT
Organisms respond to shifts in climate means and variability via distinct mechanisms. Accounting for these differential responses and appropriately aggregating them is central to understanding and predicting responses to climate variability and change. Separately considering fitness components can clarify organismal responses: fecundity is primarily an integrated, additive response to chronic environmental conditions over time via mechanisms such as energy use and acquisition, whereas survival can be strongly influenced by short-term, extreme environmental conditions. In many systems, the relative importance of fecundity and survival constraints changes systematically along climate gradients, with fecundity constraints dominating at high latitudes or altitudes (i.e. leading range edges as climate warms), and survival constraints dominating at trailing range edges. Incorporating these systematic differences in models may improve predictions of responses to recent climate change over models that assume similar processes along environmental gradients. We explore how detecting and predicting shifts in fitness constraints can improve our ability to forecast responses to climate gradients and change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lauren B. Buckley
- Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195-1800, USA
| | - Sean D. Schoville
- Department of Entomology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI 53715-1218, USA
| | - Caroline M. Williams
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720-3140, USA
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16
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Kingsolver JG, Buckley LB. Ontogenetic variation in thermal sensitivity shapes insect ecological responses to climate change. Curr Opin Insect Sci 2020; 41:17-24. [PMID: 32599547 DOI: 10.1016/j.cois.2020.05.005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 34] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/31/2020] [Revised: 05/06/2020] [Accepted: 05/12/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Insects have distinct life stages that can differ in their responses to environmental factors. We discuss empirical evidence and theoretical models for ontogenetic variation in thermal sensitivity and performance curves (TPCs). Data on lower thermal limits for development (T0) demonstrate variation between stages within a species that is of comparable magnitude to variation among species; we illustrate the consequences of such ontogenetic variation for developmental responses to changing temperature. Ontogenetic variation in optimal temperatures and upper thermal limits has been reported in some systems, but current data are too limited to identify general patterns. The shapes of TPCs for different fitness components such as juvenile survival, adult fecundity, and generation time differ in characteristic ways, with important consequences for understanding fitness in varying thermal environments. We highlight a theoretical framework for incorporating ontogenetic variation into process-based models of population responses to seasonal variation and climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joel G Kingsolver
- Department of Biology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27599, United States.
| | - Lauren B Buckley
- Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, United States
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17
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Herrando‐Pérez S, Monasterio C, Beukema W, Gomes V, Ferri‐Yáñez F, Vieites DR, Buckley LB, Araújo MB. Heat tolerance is more variable than cold tolerance across species of Iberian lizards after controlling for intraspecific variation. Funct Ecol 2020. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2435.13507] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Salvador Herrando‐Pérez
- Australian Centre for Ancient DNA School of Biological Sciences The University of Adelaide Adelaide SA Australia
- Department of Biogeography and Global Change Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales Spanish National Research Council (CSIC) Madrid Spain
| | - Camila Monasterio
- Department of Biogeography and Global Change Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales Spanish National Research Council (CSIC) Madrid Spain
| | - Wouter Beukema
- Wildlife Health Ghent Department of Pathology, Bacteriology and Poultry Diseases Faculty of Veterinary Medicine Ghent University Merelbeke Belgium
| | - Verónica Gomes
- Research Center in Biodiversity and Genetic Resources (CIBIO) Research Network in Biodiversity and Evolutionary Biology (lnBIO) Universidade do Porto Vairão Portugal
| | - Francisco Ferri‐Yáñez
- Department of Community Ecology Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ) Halle (Saale) Germany
| | - David R. Vieites
- Department of Biogeography and Global Change Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales Spanish National Research Council (CSIC) Madrid Spain
| | | | - Miguel B. Araújo
- Department of Biogeography and Global Change Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales Spanish National Research Council (CSIC) Madrid Spain
- Rui Nabeiro Biodiversity Chair MED Institute Universidade de ÉvoraLargo dos Colegiais Évora Portugal
- The Globe Institute University of Copenhagen Copenhagen Denmark
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18
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Slatyer RA, Schoville SD, Nufio CR, Buckley LB. Do different rates of gene flow underlie variation in phenotypic and phenological clines in a montane grasshopper community? Ecol Evol 2020; 10:980-997. [PMID: 32015859 PMCID: PMC6988534 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.5961] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/03/2019] [Revised: 12/07/2019] [Accepted: 12/09/2019] [Indexed: 01/13/2023] Open
Abstract
Species responses to environmental change are likely to depend on existing genetic and phenotypic variation, as well as evolutionary potential. A key challenge is to determine whether gene flow might facilitate or impede genomic divergence among populations responding to environmental change, and if emergent phenotypic variation is dependent on gene flow rates. A general expectation is that patterns of genetic differentiation in a set of codistributed species reflect differences in dispersal ability. In less dispersive species, we predict greater genetic divergence and reduced gene flow. This could lead to covariation in life-history traits due to local adaptation, although plasticity or drift could mirror these patterns. We compare genome-wide patterns of genetic structure in four phenotypically variable grasshopper species along a steep elevation gradient near Boulder, Colorado, and test the hypothesis that genomic differentiation is greater in short-winged grasshopper species, and statistically associated with variation in growth, reproductive, and physiological traits along this gradient. In addition, we estimate rates of gene flow under competing demographic models, as well as potential gene flow through surveys of phenological overlap among populations within a species. All species exhibit genetic structure along the elevation gradient and limited gene flow. The most pronounced genetic divergence appears in short-winged (less dispersive) species, which also exhibit less phenological overlap among populations. A high-elevation population of the most widespread species, Melanoplus sanguinipes, appears to be a sink population derived from low elevation populations. While dispersal ability has a clear connection to the genetic structure in different species, genetic distance does not predict growth, reproductive, or physiological trait variation in any species, requiring further investigation to clearly link phenotypic divergence to local adaptation.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - César R. Nufio
- University of Colorado Natural History MuseumUniversity of ColoradoBoulderCOUSA
- National Science FoundationAlexandriaVAUSA
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19
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Affiliation(s)
- César R. Nufio
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology University of Colorado Boulder Colorado 80309 USA
- University of Colorado Natural History Museum University of Colorado Boulder Colorado 80309 USA
- National Science Foundation Alexandria Virginia 22314 USA
| | - Lauren B. Buckley
- Department of Biology University of Washington Seattle Washington 98195‐1800 USA
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20
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Buckley LB, Khaliq I, Swanson DL, Hof C. Does metabolism constrain bird and mammal ranges and predict shifts in response to climate change? Ecol Evol 2018; 8:12375-12385. [PMID: 30619552 PMCID: PMC6308872 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.4537] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/23/2018] [Revised: 06/25/2018] [Accepted: 08/18/2018] [Indexed: 01/09/2023] Open
Abstract
Mechanistic approaches for predicting the ranges of endotherms are needed to forecast their responses to environmental change. We test whether physiological constraints on maximum metabolic rate and the factor by which endotherms can elevate their metabolism (metabolic expansibility) influence cold range limits for mammal and bird species. We examine metabolic expansibility at the cold range boundary (MECRB) and whether species' traits can predict variability in MECRB and then use MECRB as an initial approach to project range shifts for 210 mammal and 61 bird species. We find evidence for metabolic constraints: the distributions of metabolic expansibility at the cold range boundary peak at similar values for birds (2.7) and mammals (3.2). The right skewed distributions suggest some species have adapted to elevate or evade metabolic constraints. Mammals exhibit greater skew than birds, consistent with their diverse thermoregulatory adaptations and behaviors. Mammal and bird species that are small and occupy low trophic levels exhibit high levels of MECRB. Mammals with high MECRB tend to hibernate or use torpor. Predicted metabolic rates at the cold range boundaries represent large energetic expenditures (>50% of maximum metabolic rates). We project species to shift their cold range boundaries poleward by an average of 3.9° latitude by 2070 if metabolic constraints remain constant. Our analysis suggests that metabolic constraints provide a viable mechanism for initial projections of the cold range boundaries for endotherms. However, errors and approximations in estimating metabolic constraints (e.g., acclimation responses) and evasion of these constraints (e.g., torpor/hibernation, microclimate selection) highlight the need for more detailed, taxa-specific mechanistic models. Even coarse considerations of metabolism will likely lead to improved predictions over exclusively considering thermal tolerance for endotherms.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Imran Khaliq
- Zoology DepartmentGhazi UniversityPunjabPakistan
| | - David L. Swanson
- Department of BiologyUniversity of South DakotaVermillionSouth Dakota
| | - Christian Hof
- Terrestrial Ecology Research GroupDepartment of Ecology and Ecosystem ManagementSchool of Life Sciences WeihenstephanTechnical University of MunichFreisingGermany
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21
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MacLean HJ, Nielsen ME, Kingsolver JG, Buckley LB. Using museum specimens to track morphological shifts through climate change. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2018; 374:rstb.2017.0404. [PMID: 30455218 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2017.0404] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 08/20/2018] [Indexed: 02/07/2023] Open
Abstract
Museum specimens offer a largely untapped resource for detecting morphological shifts in response to climate change. However, morphological shifts can be obscured by shifts in phenology or distribution or sampling biases. Additionally, interpreting phenotypic shifts requires distinguishing whether they result from plastic or genetic changes. Previous studies using collections have documented consistent historical size changes, but the limited studies of other morphological traits have often failed to support, or even test, hypotheses. We explore the potential of collections by investigating shifts in the functionally significant coloration of a montane butterfly, Colias meadii, over the past 60 years within three North American geographical regions. We find declines in ventral wing melanism, which correspond to reduced absorption of solar radiation and thus reduced risk of overheating, in two regions. However, contrary to expected responses to climate warming, we find melanism increases in the most thoroughly sampled region. Relationships among temperature, phenology and morphology vary across years and complicate the distinction between plastic and genetic responses. Differences in these relationships may account for the differing morphological shifts among regions. Our findings highlight the promise of using museum specimens to test mechanistic hypotheses for shifts in functional traits, which is essential for deciphering interacting responses to climate change.This article is part of the theme issue 'Biological collections for understanding biodiversity in the Anthropocene'.
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Affiliation(s)
- Heidi J MacLean
- Department of Biology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Coker Hall 120 South Road, Chapel Hill, NC 27599, USA.,Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Ny Munkegade, 8000, Aarhus C, Denmark
| | - Matthew E Nielsen
- Department of Biology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Coker Hall 120 South Road, Chapel Hill, NC 27599, USA
| | - Joel G Kingsolver
- Department of Biology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Coker Hall 120 South Road, Chapel Hill, NC 27599, USA
| | - Lauren B Buckley
- Department of Biology, University of Washington, 24 Kincaid Hall, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
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22
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Kingsolver JG, Buckley LB. How do phenology, plasticity, and evolution determine the fitness consequences of climate change for montane butterflies? Evol Appl 2018; 11:1231-1244. [PMID: 30151036 PMCID: PMC6099808 DOI: 10.1111/eva.12618] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/25/2017] [Accepted: 01/22/2018] [Indexed: 12/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Species have responded to climate change via seasonal (phenological) shifts, morphological plasticity, and evolutionary adaptation, but how these responses contribute to changes and variation in population fitness are poorly understood. We assess the interactions and relative importance of these responses for fitness in a montane butterfly, Colias eriphyle, along an elevational gradient. Because environmental temperatures affect developmental rates of each life stage, populations along the gradients differ in phenological timing and the number of generations each year. Our focal phenotype, wing solar absorptivity of adult butterflies, exhibits local adaptation across elevation and responds plastically to developmental temperatures. We integrate climatic data for the past half-century with microclimate, developmental, biophysical, demographic, and evolutionary models for this system to predict how phenology, plasticity, and evolution contribute to phenotypic and fitness variation along the gradient. We predict that phenological advancements incompletely compensate for climate warming, and also influence morphological plasticity. Climate change is predicted to increase mean population fitness in the first seasonal generation at high elevation, but decrease mean fitness in the summer generations at low elevation. Phenological shifts reduce the interannual variation in directional selection and morphology, but do not have consistent effects on variation in mean fitness. Morphological plasticity and its evolution can substantially increase population fitness and adaptation to climate change at low elevations, but environmental unpredictability limits adaptive plastic and evolutionary responses at high elevations. Phenological shifts also decrease the relative fitness advantages of morphological plasticity and evolution. Our results illustrate how the potential contributions of phenological and morphological plasticity and of evolution to climate change adaptation can vary along environmental gradients and how environmental variability will limit adaptive responses to climate change in montane regions.
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23
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Williams CM, Ragland GJ, Betini G, Buckley LB, Cheviron ZA, Donohue K, Hereford J, Humphries MM, Lisovski S, Marshall KE, Schmidt PS, Sheldon KS, Varpe Ø, Visser ME. Understanding Evolutionary Impacts of Seasonality: An Introduction to the Symposium. Integr Comp Biol 2018; 57:921-933. [PMID: 29045649 DOI: 10.1093/icb/icx122] [Citation(s) in RCA: 52] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/22/2022] Open
Abstract
Seasonality is a critically important aspect of environmental variability, and strongly shapes all aspects of life for organisms living in highly seasonal environments. Seasonality has played a key role in generating biodiversity, and has driven the evolution of extreme physiological adaptations and behaviors such as migration and hibernation. Fluctuating selection pressures on survival and fecundity between summer and winter provide a complex selective landscape, which can be met by a combination of three outcomes of adaptive evolution: genetic polymorphism, phenotypic plasticity, and bet-hedging. Here, we have identified four important research questions with the goal of advancing our understanding of evolutionary impacts of seasonality. First, we ask how characteristics of environments and species will determine which adaptive response occurs. Relevant characteristics include costs and limits of plasticity, predictability, and reliability of cues, and grain of environmental variation relative to generation time. A second important question is how phenological shifts will amplify or ameliorate selection on physiological hardiness. Shifts in phenology can preserve the thermal niche despite shifts in climate, but may fail to completely conserve the niche or may even expose life stages to conditions that cause mortality. Considering distinct environmental sensitivities of life history stages will be key to refining models that forecast susceptibility to climate change. Third, we must identify critical physiological phenotypes that underlie seasonal adaptation and work toward understanding the genetic architectures of these responses. These architectures are key for predicting evolutionary responses. Pleiotropic genes that regulate multiple responses to changing seasons may facilitate coordination among functionally related traits, or conversely may constrain the expression of optimal phenotypes. Finally, we must advance our understanding of how changes in seasonal fluctuations are impacting ecological interaction networks. We should move beyond simple dyadic interactions, such as predator prey dynamics, and understand how these interactions scale up to affect ecological interaction networks. As global climate change alters many aspects of seasonal variability, including extreme events and changes in mean conditions, organisms must respond appropriately or go extinct. The outcome of adaptation to seasonality will determine responses to climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Caroline M Williams
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of California, 3040 Valley Life Sciences Building, Berkeley, CA 94705, USA
| | - Gregory J Ragland
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of Colorado, Denver, CO, USA
| | - Gustavo Betini
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada
| | - Lauren B Buckley
- Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Zachary A Cheviron
- Division of Biological Sciences, University of Montana, Missoula, MT, USA
| | | | - Joe Hereford
- Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of California, Davis, CA, USA
| | - Murray M Humphries
- Department of Natural Resource Sciences, McGill University, Quebec, Canada
| | - Simeon Lisovski
- Department of Neurobiology, Physiology and Behavior, University of California, Davis, CA, USA
| | | | - Paul S Schmidt
- Department of Biology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA
| | - Kimberly S Sheldon
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, USA
| | - Øystein Varpe
- Department of Arctic Biology, The University Centre in Svalbard, Longyearbyen, Norway.,Akvaplan-niva, Fram Centre, Tromsø, Norway
| | - Marcel E Visser
- Department of Animal Ecology, Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW), P.O. Box 50, 6700 AB Wageningen, The Netherlands
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Buckley LB, Arakaki AJ, Cannistra AF, Kharouba HM, Kingsolver JG. Insect Development, Thermal Plasticity and Fitness Implications in Changing, Seasonal Environments. Integr Comp Biol 2018; 57:988-998. [PMID: 28662575 DOI: 10.1093/icb/icx032] [Citation(s) in RCA: 39] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/22/2023] Open
Abstract
Historical data show that recent climate change has caused advances in seasonal timing (phenology) in many animals and plants, particularly in temperate and higher latitude regions. The population and fitness consequences of these phenological shifts for insects and other ectotherms have been heterogeneous: warming can increase development rates and the number of generations per year (increasing fitness), but can also lead to seasonal mismatches between animals and their resources and increase exposure to environmental variability (decreasing fitness). Insect populations exhibit local adaptation in their developmental responses to temperature, including lower developmental thresholds and the thermal requirements to complete development, but climate change can potentially disrupt seasonal timing of juvenile and adult stages and alter population fitness. We investigate these issues using a global dataset describing how insect developmental responds to temperature via two traits: lower temperature thresholds for development (T0) and the cumulative degree-days required to complete development (G). As suggested by previous analyses, T0 decreases and G increases with increasing (absolute) latitude; however, these traits and the relationship between G and latitude varies significantly among taxonomic orders. The mean number of generations per year (a metric of fitness) increases with both decreasing T0 and G, but the effects of these traits on fitness vary strongly with latitude, with stronger selection on both traits at higher (absolute) latitudes. We then use the traits to predict developmental timing and temperatures for multiple generations within seasons and across years (1970-2010). Seasonality drives developmental temperatures to peak mid-season and for generation lengths to decline across seasons, particularly in temperate regions. We predict that climate warming has advanced phenology and increased the number of generations, particularly at high latitudes. The magnitude of increases in developmental temperature varies little across latitude. Increases in the number of seasonal generations have been greatest for populations experiencing the greatest phenological advancements and warming. Shifts in developmental rate and timing due to climate change will have complex implications for selection and fitness in seasonal environments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lauren B Buckley
- Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195-1800, USA
| | - Andrew J Arakaki
- Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195-1800, USA
| | - Anthony F Cannistra
- Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195-1800, USA
| | | | - Joel G Kingsolver
- Department of Biology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27599, USA
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Affiliation(s)
- Lauren B Buckley
- Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195-1800, USA
| | - Anthony F Cannistra
- Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195-1800, USA
| | - Aji John
- Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195-1800, USA
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Kingsolver JG, Buckley LB. Quantifying thermal extremes and biological variation to predict evolutionary responses to changing climate. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2018; 372:rstb.2016.0147. [PMID: 28483862 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2016.0147] [Citation(s) in RCA: 97] [Impact Index Per Article: 16.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 11/05/2016] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Central ideas from thermal biology, including thermal performance curves and tolerances, have been widely used to evaluate how changes in environmental means and variances generate changes in fitness, selection and microevolution in response to climate change. We summarize the opportunities and challenges for extending this approach to understanding the consequences of extreme climatic events. Using statistical tools from extreme value theory, we show how distributions of thermal extremes vary with latitude, time scale and climate change. Second, we review how performance curves and tolerances have been used to predict the fitness and evolutionary responses to climate change and climate gradients. Performance curves and tolerances change with prior thermal history and with time scale, complicating their use for predicting responses to thermal extremes. Third, we describe several recent case studies showing how infrequent extreme events can have outsized effects on the evolution of performance curves and heat tolerance. A key issue is whether thermal extremes affect reproduction or survival, and how these combine to determine overall fitness. We argue that a greater focus on tails-in the distribution of environmental extremes, and in the upper ends of performance curves-is needed to understand the consequences of extreme events.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events'.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joel G Kingsolver
- Department of Biology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27599, USA
| | - Lauren B Buckley
- Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
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Kingsolver JG, Buckley LB. Evolution of plasticity and adaptive responses to climate change along climate gradients. Proc Biol Sci 2017; 284:rspb.2017.0386. [PMID: 28814652 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2017.0386] [Citation(s) in RCA: 45] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/23/2017] [Accepted: 06/21/2017] [Indexed: 12/28/2022] Open
Abstract
The relative contributions of phenotypic plasticity and adaptive evolution to the responses of species to recent and future climate change are poorly understood. We combine recent (1960-2010) climate and phenotypic data with microclimate, heat balance, demographic and evolutionary models to address this issue for a montane butterfly, Colias eriphyle, along an elevational gradient. Our focal phenotype, wing solar absorptivity, responds plastically to developmental (pupal) temperatures and plays a central role in thermoregulatory adaptation in adults. Here, we show that both the phenotypic and adaptive consequences of plasticity vary with elevation. Seasonal changes in weather generate seasonal variation in phenotypic selection on mean and plasticity of absorptivity, especially at lower elevations. In response to climate change in the past 60 years, our models predict evolutionary declines in mean absorptivity (but little change in plasticity) at high elevations, and evolutionary increases in plasticity (but little change in mean) at low elevation. The importance of plasticity depends on the magnitude of seasonal variation in climate relative to interannual variation. Our results suggest that selection and evolution of both trait means and plasticity can contribute to adaptive response to climate change in this system. They also illustrate how plasticity can facilitate rather than retard adaptive evolutionary responses to directional climate change in seasonal environments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joel G Kingsolver
- Department of Biology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27599, USA
| | - Lauren B Buckley
- Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
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Levy O, Borchert JD, Rusch TW, Buckley LB, Angilletta MJ. Diminishing returns limit energetic costs of climate change. Ecology 2017; 98:1217-1228. [DOI: 10.1002/ecy.1803] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/20/2016] [Revised: 02/16/2017] [Accepted: 02/16/2017] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Ofir Levy
- School of Life Sciences Arizona State University Tempe Arizona 85287 USA
| | - Jason D. Borchert
- School of Life Sciences Arizona State University Tempe Arizona 85287 USA
| | - Travis W. Rusch
- School of Life Sciences Arizona State University Tempe Arizona 85287 USA
| | - Lauren B. Buckley
- Department of Biology University of Washington Seattle Washington 98195 USA
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Telemeco RS, Fletcher B, Levy O, Riley A, Rodriguez-Sanchez Y, Smith C, Teague C, Waters A, Angilletta MJ, Buckley LB. Lizards fail to plastically adjust nesting behavior or thermal tolerance as needed to buffer populations from climate warming. Glob Chang Biol 2017; 23:1075-1084. [PMID: 27558698 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13476] [Citation(s) in RCA: 35] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/11/2016] [Accepted: 07/22/2016] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
Although observations suggest the potential for phenotypic plasticity to allow adaptive responses to climate change, few experiments have assessed that potential. Modeling suggests that Sceloporus tristichus lizards will need increased nest depth, shade cover, or embryonic thermal tolerance to avoid reproductive failure resulting from climate change. To test for such plasticity, we experimentally examined how maternal temperatures affect nesting behavior and embryonic thermal sensitivity. The temperature regime that females experienced while gravid did not affect nesting behavior, but warmer temperatures at the time of nesting reduced nest depth. Additionally, embryos from heat-stressed mothers displayed increased sensitivity to high-temperature exposure. Simulations suggest that critically low temperatures, rather than high temperatures, historically limit development of our study population. Thus, the plasticity needed to buffer this population has not been under selection. Plasticity will likely fail to compensate for ongoing climate change when such change results in novel stressors.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rory S Telemeco
- Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98125, USA
| | - Brooke Fletcher
- School of Life Sciences, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, 85287, USA
| | - Ofir Levy
- School of Life Sciences, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, 85287, USA
| | - Angela Riley
- School of Life Sciences, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, 85287, USA
| | | | - Colton Smith
- School of Life Sciences, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, 85287, USA
| | - Collin Teague
- School of Life Sciences, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, 85287, USA
| | - Amanda Waters
- School of Life Sciences, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, 85287, USA
| | | | - Lauren B Buckley
- Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98125, USA
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MacLean HJ, Kingsolver JG, Buckley LB. Historical changes in thermoregulatory traits of alpine butterflies reveal complex ecological and evolutionary responses to recent climate change. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2016. [DOI: 10.1186/s40665-016-0028-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
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Buckley LB, Huey RB. Temperature extremes: geographic patterns, recent changes, and implications for organismal vulnerabilities. Glob Chang Biol 2016; 22:3829-3842. [PMID: 27062158 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13313] [Citation(s) in RCA: 101] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/01/2015] [Accepted: 03/31/2016] [Indexed: 05/25/2023]
Abstract
Extreme temperatures can injure or kill organisms and can drive evolutionary patterns. Many indices of extremes have been proposed, but few attempts have been made to establish geographic patterns of extremes and to evaluate whether they align with geographic patterns in biological vulnerability and diversity. To examine these issues, we adopt the CLIMDEX indices of thermal extremes. We compute scores for each index on a geographic grid during a baseline period (1961-1990) and separately for the recent period (1991-2010). Heat extremes (temperatures above the 90th percentile during the baseline period) have become substantially more common during the recent period, particularly in the tropics. Importantly, the various indices show weak geographic concordance, implying that organisms in different regions will face different forms of thermal stress. The magnitude of recent shifts in indices is largely uncorrelated with baseline scores in those indices, suggesting that organisms are likely to face novel thermal stresses. Organismal tolerances correlate roughly with absolute metrics (mainly for cold), but poorly with metrics defined relative to local conditions. Regions with high extreme scores do not correlate closely with regions with high species diversity, human population density, or agricultural production. Even though frequency and intensity of extreme temperature events have - and are likely to have - major impacts on organisms, the impacts are likely to be geographically and taxonomically idiosyncratic and difficult to predict.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lauren B Buckley
- Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195-1800, USA
| | - Raymond B Huey
- Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195-1800, USA
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MacLean HJ, Higgins JK, Buckley LB, Kingsolver JG. Morphological and physiological determinants of local adaptation to climate in Rocky Mountain butterflies. Conserv Physiol 2016; 4:cow035. [PMID: 27668080 PMCID: PMC5033134 DOI: 10.1093/conphys/cow035] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/30/2015] [Revised: 08/02/2016] [Accepted: 08/13/2016] [Indexed: 06/03/2023]
Abstract
Flight is a central determinant of fitness in butterflies and other insects, but it is restricted to a limited range of body temperatures. To achieve these body temperatures, butterflies use a combination of morphological, behavioural and physiological mechanisms. Here, we used common garden (without direct solar radiation) and reciprocal transplant (full solar radiation) experiments in the field to determine the thermal sensitivity of flight initiation for two species of Colias butterflies along an elevation gradient in the southwestern Rocky Mountains. The mean body temperature for flight initiation in the field was lower (24-26°C) than indicated by previous studies (28-30°C) in these species. There were small but significant differences in thermal sensitivity of flight initiation between species; high-elevation Colias meadii initiated flight at a lower mean body temperature than lower-elevation Colias eriphyle. Morphological differences (in wing melanin and thoracic setae) drive body temperature differences between species and contributed strongly to differences in the time and probability of flight and air temperatures at flight initiation. Our results suggest that differences both in thermal sensitivity (15% contribution) and in morphology (85% contribution) contribute to the differences in flight initiation between the two species in the field. Understanding these differences, which influence flight performance and fitness, aids in forecasting responses to climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Heidi J MacLean
- Department of Biology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599, USA
| | - Jessica K Higgins
- Department of Biology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599, USA
| | - Lauren B Buckley
- Department of Biology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599, USA
- Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
| | - Joel G Kingsolver
- Department of Biology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599, USA
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Abstract
SynopsisUnderstanding the biological impacts of extreme temperatures requires translating meteorological estimates into organismal responses, but that translation is complex. In general, the physiological stress induced by a given thermal extreme should increase with the extreme's magnitude and duration, though acclimation may buffer that stress. However, organisms can differ strikingly in their exposure to and tolerance of a given extreme temperatures. Moreover, their sensitivity to extremes can vary during ontogeny, across seasons, and among species; and that sensitivity and its variation should be subject to selection. We use a simple quantitative genetic model and demonstrate that thermal extremes-even when at low frequency-can substantially influence the evolution of thermal sensitivity, particularly when the extremes cause mortality or persistent physiological injury, or when organisms are unable to use behavior to buffer exposure to extremes. Thermal extremes can drive organisms in temperate and tropical sites to have similar thermal tolerances despite major differences in mean temperatures. Indeed, the model correctly predicts that Australian Drosophila should have shallower latitudinal gradients in thermal tolerance than would be expected based only on gradients in mean conditions. Predicting responses to climate change requires understanding not only how past selection to tolerate thermal extremes has helped establish existing geographic gradients in thermal tolerances, but also how increasing the incidence of thermal extremes will alter geographic gradients in the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lauren B Buckley
- Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 981951800, USA
| | - Raymond B Huey
- Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 981951800, USA
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Affiliation(s)
- Ofir Levy
- School of Life Sciences; Arizona State University; Tempe Arizona 85287 USA
| | - Lauren B. Buckley
- Department of Biology; University of Washington; Seattle Washington 98195 USA
| | - Timothy H. Keitt
- Section of Integrative Biology; University of Texas; Austin Texas 78712 USA
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Williams CM, Buckley LB, Sheldon KS, Vickers M, Pörtner HO, Dowd WW, Gunderson AR, Marshall KE, Stillman JH. Biological Impacts of Thermal Extremes: Mechanisms and Costs of Functional Responses Matter. Integr Comp Biol 2016; 56:73-84. [PMID: 27252194 DOI: 10.1093/icb/icw013] [Citation(s) in RCA: 76] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
Thermal performance curves enable physiological constraints to be incorporated in predictions of biological responses to shifts in mean temperature. But do thermal performance curves adequately capture the biological impacts of thermal extremes? Organisms incur physiological damage during exposure to extremes, and also mount active compensatory responses leading to acclimatization, both of which alter thermal performance curves and determine the impact that current and future extremes have on organismal performance and fitness. Thus, these sub-lethal responses to extreme temperatures potentially shape evolution of thermal performance curves. We applied a quantitative genetic model and found that beneficial acclimatization and cumulative damage alter the extent to which thermal performance curves evolve in response to thermal extremes. The impacts of extremes on the evolution of thermal performance curves are reduced if extremes cause substantial mortality or otherwise reduce fitness differences among individuals. Further empirical research will be required to understand how responses to extremes aggregate through time and vary across life stages and processes. Such research will enable incorporating passive and active responses to sub-lethal stress when predicting the impacts of thermal extremes.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | - Mathew Vickers
- Station d'Ecologie Théorique et Expérimentale, Moulis, 09200, UMR 5321, CNRS 2 route du CNRS, France
| | - Hans-Otto Pörtner
- Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Center for Marine and Polar Research, 27570 Bremerhaven, Germany
| | - W Wesley Dowd
- Loyola Marymount University, Los Angeles, CA, USA 90045
| | - Alex R Gunderson
- *University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA 94720 San Francisco State University, Tiburon, CA, USA 94132
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Levy O, Buckley LB, Keitt TH, Smith CD, Boateng KO, Kumar DS, Angilletta MJ. Resolving the life cycle alters expected impacts of climate change. Proc Biol Sci 2016; 282:20150837. [PMID: 26290072 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2015.0837] [Citation(s) in RCA: 91] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Recent models predict contrasting impacts of climate change on tropical and temperate species, but these models ignore how environmental stress and organismal tolerance change during the life cycle. For example, geographical ranges and extinction risks have been inferred from thermal constraints on activity during the adult stage. Yet, most animals pass through a sessile embryonic stage before reaching adulthood, making them more susceptible to warming climates than current models would suggest. By projecting microclimates at high spatio-temporal resolution and measuring thermal tolerances of embryos, we developed a life cycle model of population dynamics for North American lizards. Our analyses show that previous models dramatically underestimate the demographic impacts of climate change. A predicted loss of fitness in 2% of the USA by 2100 became 35% when considering embryonic performance in response to hourly fluctuations in soil temperature. Most lethal events would have been overlooked if we had ignored thermal stress during embryonic development or had averaged temperatures over time. Therefore, accurate forecasts require detailed knowledge of environmental conditions and thermal tolerances throughout the life cycle.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ofir Levy
- School of Life Sciences, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287, USA
| | - Lauren B Buckley
- Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
| | - Timothy H Keitt
- Section of Integrative Biology, University of Texas, Austin, TX 78712, USA
| | - Colton D Smith
- School of Life Sciences, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287, USA
| | - Kwasi O Boateng
- School of Life Sciences, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287, USA
| | - Davina S Kumar
- School of Life Sciences, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287, USA
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Brown CJ, O'Connor MI, Poloczanska ES, Schoeman DS, Buckley LB, Burrows MT, Duarte CM, Halpern BS, Pandolfi JM, Parmesan C, Richardson AJ. Ecological and methodological drivers of species' distribution and phenology responses to climate change. Glob Chang Biol 2016; 22:1548-60. [PMID: 26661135 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13184] [Citation(s) in RCA: 100] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/25/2015] [Revised: 10/11/2015] [Accepted: 11/13/2015] [Indexed: 05/23/2023]
Abstract
Climate change is shifting species' distribution and phenology. Ecological traits, such as mobility or reproductive mode, explain variation in observed rates of shift for some taxa. However, estimates of relationships between traits and climate responses could be influenced by how responses are measured. We compiled a global data set of 651 published marine species' responses to climate change, from 47 papers on distribution shifts and 32 papers on phenology change. We assessed the relative importance of two classes of predictors of the rate of change, ecological traits of the responding taxa and methodological approaches for quantifying biological responses. Methodological differences explained 22% of the variation in range shifts, more than the 7.8% of the variation explained by ecological traits. For phenology change, methodological approaches accounted for 4% of the variation in measurements, whereas 8% of the variation was explained by ecological traits. Our ability to predict responses from traits was hindered by poor representation of species from the tropics, where temperature isotherms are moving most rapidly. Thus, the mean rate of distribution change may be underestimated by this and other global syntheses. Our analyses indicate that methodological approaches should be explicitly considered when designing, analysing and comparing results among studies. To improve climate impact studies, we recommend that (1) reanalyses of existing time series state how the existing data sets may limit the inferences about possible climate responses; (2) qualitative comparisons of species' responses across different studies be limited to studies with similar methodological approaches; (3) meta-analyses of climate responses include methodological attributes as covariates; and (4) that new time series be designed to include the detection of early warnings of change or ecologically relevant change. Greater consideration of methodological attributes will improve the accuracy of analyses that seek to quantify the role of climate change in species' distribution and phenology changes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christopher J Brown
- The Global Change Institute, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Qld, 4072, Australia
| | - Mary I O'Connor
- Department of Zoology and Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada, V6T1Z4
| | - Elvira S Poloczanska
- The Global Change Institute, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Qld, 4072, Australia
- CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, EcoSciences Precinct, Dutton Park, Brisbane, Qld, 4102, Australia
| | - David S Schoeman
- School of Science and Engineering, University of Sunshine Coast, Maroochydore, Qld, 4558, Australia
| | - Lauren B Buckley
- Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98115-1800, USA
| | - Michael T Burrows
- Department of Ecology, Marine Institute, Scottish Association for Marine Science, Oban, Argyll, PA37 1QA, UK
| | - Carlos M Duarte
- Red Sea Research Center (RSRC), King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal, 23955-6900, Saudi Arabia
| | - Benjamin S Halpern
- National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, 735 State St. Suite 300, Santa Barbara, CA, 93101, USA
- Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, 93106, USA
- Imperial College London, Silwood Park Campus, Buckhurst Road, Ascot, SL57PY, UK
| | - John M Pandolfi
- School of Biological Sciences, ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Qld, 4072, Australia
| | - Camille Parmesan
- Marine Institute, Plymouth University, Drakes Circus, Plymouth, Devon, PL4 8AA, UK
- Department of Geological Sciences, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, 78712, USA
| | - Anthony J Richardson
- CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, EcoSciences Precinct, Dutton Park, Brisbane, Qld, 4102, Australia
- School of Mathematics and Physics, Centre for Applications in Natural Resource Mathematics, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Qld, 4072, Australia
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Levy O, Buckley LB, Keitt TH, Angilletta MJ. Ontogeny constrains phenology: opportunities for activity and reproduction interact to dictate potential phenologies in a changing climate. Ecol Lett 2016; 19:620-8. [DOI: 10.1111/ele.12595] [Citation(s) in RCA: 39] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/30/2015] [Revised: 11/01/2015] [Accepted: 02/03/2016] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Ofir Levy
- School of Life Sciences Arizona State University Tempe AZ 85287 USA
| | | | - Timothy H. Keitt
- Section of Integrative Biology University of Texas Austin TX 78712 USA
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Buckley LB, Nufio CR, Kirk EM, Kingsolver JG. Elevational differences in developmental plasticity determine phenological responses of grasshoppers to recent climate warming. Proc Biol Sci 2016; 282:20150441. [PMID: 26041342 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2015.0441] [Citation(s) in RCA: 44] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Annual species may increase reproduction by increasing adult body size through extended development, but risk being unable to complete development in seasonally limited environments. Synthetic reviews indicate that most, but not all, species have responded to recent climate warming by advancing the seasonal timing of adult emergence or reproduction. Here, we show that 50 years of climate change have delayed development in high-elevation, season-limited grasshopper populations, but advanced development in populations at lower elevations. Developmental delays are most pronounced for early-season species, which might benefit most from delaying development when released from seasonal time constraints. Rearing experiments confirm that population, elevation and temperature interact to determine development time. Population differences in developmental plasticity may account for variability in phenological shifts among adults. An integrated consideration of the full life cycle that considers local adaptation and plasticity may be essential for understanding and predicting responses to climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lauren B Buckley
- Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195-1800, USA
| | - César R Nufio
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, USA University of Colorado Natural History Museum, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
| | - Evan M Kirk
- Department of Biology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27599, USA
| | - Joel G Kingsolver
- Department of Biology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27599, USA
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MacLean HJ, Higgins JK, Buckley LB, Kingsolver JG. Geographic divergence in upper thermal limits across insect life stages: does behavior matter? Oecologia 2016; 181:107-14. [PMID: 26849879 DOI: 10.1007/s00442-016-3561-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/05/2015] [Accepted: 01/13/2016] [Indexed: 01/26/2023]
Abstract
Insects with complex life cycles vary in size, mobility, and thermal ecology across life stages. We examine how differences in the capacity for thermoregulatory behavior influence geographic differences in physiological heat tolerance among egg and adult Colias butterflies. Colias adults exhibit differences in morphology (wing melanin and thoracic setal length) along spatial gradients, whereas eggs are morphologically indistinguishable. Here we compare Colias eriphyle eggs and adults from two elevations and Colias meadii from a high elevation. Hatching success and egg development time of C. eriphyle eggs did not differ significantly with the elevation of origin. Egg survival declined in response to heat-shock temperatures above 38-40 °C and egg development time was shortest at intermediate heat-shock temperatures of 33-38 °C. Laboratory experiments with adults showed survival in response to heat shock was significantly greater for Colias from higher than from lower elevation sites. Common-garden experiments at the low-elevation field site showed that C. meadii adults initiated heat-avoidance and over-heating behaviors significantly earlier in the day than C. eriphyle. Our study demonstrates the importance of examining thermal tolerances across life stages. Our findings are inconsistent with the hypothesis that thermoregulatory behavior inhibits the geographic divergence of physiological traits in mobile stages, and suggest that sessile stages may evolve similar heat tolerances in different environments due to microclimatic variability or evolutionary constraints.
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Affiliation(s)
- Heidi J MacLean
- Department of Biology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, 27599, USA.
| | - Jessica K Higgins
- Department of Biology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, 27599, USA
| | - Lauren B Buckley
- Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA
| | - Joel G Kingsolver
- Department of Biology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, 27599, USA
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Abstract
How does recent climate warming and climate variability alter fitness, phenotypic selection and evolution in natural populations? We combine biophysical, demographic and evolutionary models with recent climate data to address this question for the subalpine and alpine butterfly, Colias meadii, in the southern Rocky Mountains. We focus on predicting patterns of selection and evolution for a key thermoregulatory trait, melanin (solar absorptivity) on the posterior ventral hindwings, which affects patterns of body temperature, flight activity, adult and egg survival, and reproductive success in Colias. Both mean annual summer temperatures and thermal variability within summers have increased during the past 60 years at subalpine and alpine sites. At the subalpine site, predicted directional selection on wing absorptivity has shifted from generally positive (favouring increased wing melanin) to generally negative during the past 60 years, but there is substantial variation among years in the predicted magnitude and direction of selection and the optimal absorptivity. The predicted magnitude of directional selection at the alpine site declined during the past 60 years and varies substantially among years, but selection has generally been positive at this site. Predicted evolutionary responses to mean climate warming at the subalpine site since 1980 is small, because of the variability in selection and asymmetry of the fitness function. At both sites, the predicted effects of adaptive evolution on mean population fitness are much smaller than the fluctuations in mean fitness due to climate variability among years. Our analyses suggest that variation in climate within and among years may strongly limit evolutionary responses of ectotherms to mean climate warming in these habitats.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joel G Kingsolver
- Department of Biology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27599, USA
| | - Lauren B Buckley
- Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
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Hannah L, Flint L, Syphard AD, Moritz MA, Buckley LB, McCullough IM. Place and process in conservation planning for climate change: a reply to Keppel and Wardell-Johnson. Trends Ecol Evol 2015; 30:234-5. [DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2015.03.008] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/05/2015] [Revised: 03/06/2015] [Accepted: 03/10/2015] [Indexed: 11/15/2022]
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Buckley LB, Ehrenberger JC, Angilletta MJ. Thermoregulatory behaviour limits local adaptation of thermal niches and confers sensitivity to climate change. Funct Ecol 2015. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2435.12406] [Citation(s) in RCA: 172] [Impact Index Per Article: 19.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
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Buckley LB, Nufio CR. Elevational clines in the temperature dependence of insect performance and implications for ecological responses to climate change. Conserv Physiol 2014; 2:cou035. [PMID: 27293656 PMCID: PMC4806720 DOI: 10.1093/conphys/cou035] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/29/2014] [Revised: 07/14/2014] [Accepted: 07/17/2014] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
To what extent is insect hopping and feeding performance, which constrains the ability to obtain and assimilate resources, thermally adapted along an elevation gradient? Does temperature dependence vary between populations and species and can differences account for individualistic responses to past climate change? We investigate these questions for three species of grasshoppers along a Rocky Mountain elevation gradient. All species and populations exhibit warm adaptation for consumption and digestion, with only modest inter- and intra-specific differences. Species differ substantially in the temperature of peak hopping performance. Low-elevation populations of the warm-adapted species exhibit the highest performance at high temperatures and the lowest performance at low temperatures. Developmental plasticity influences the temperature dependence of performance; grasshoppers reared at higher temperatures perform better at higher temperatures and possess broader thermal tolerance. We fitted thermal performance curves to examine whether performance shifts can account for changes in abundance between initial surveys in 1958-1960 and recent surveys since 2006. All species and populations are able to achieve greater feeding rates now. Estimated shifts in hopping performance vary between species and along the elevation gradient. The cool-adapted species has experienced declines in hopping performance, particularly at the lower elevation sites, while the warm-adapted species has experienced increases in performance concentrated at higher elevations. These estimated performance shifts broadly concur with observed abundance shifts. Performance metrics may have a greater potential to elucidate differential responses to climate change between populations and species than coarser and oft-used proxies, such as thermal tolerance. Assessing performance directly when temperature dependence varies between processes such as the acquisition and assimilation of energy may be essential to understanding population- and species-level impacts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lauren B. Buckley
- Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195-1800, USA
| | - César R. Nufio
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
- University of Colorado Natural History Museum, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
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Hannah L, Flint L, Syphard AD, Moritz MA, Buckley LB, McCullough IM. Fine-grain modeling of species’ response to climate change: holdouts, stepping-stones, and microrefugia. Trends Ecol Evol 2014; 29:390-7. [DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2014.04.006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 223] [Impact Index Per Article: 22.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/07/2013] [Revised: 04/15/2014] [Accepted: 04/24/2014] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
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Higgins JK, MacLean HJ, Buckley LB, Kingsolver JG. Geographic differences and microevolutionary changes in thermal sensitivity of butterfly larvae in response to climate. Funct Ecol 2013. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2435.12218] [Citation(s) in RCA: 45] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Jessica K. Higgins
- Department of Biology; University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill; Chapel Hill North Carolina 27599 USA
| | - Heidi J. MacLean
- Department of Biology; University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill; Chapel Hill North Carolina 27599 USA
| | - Lauren B. Buckley
- Department of Biology; University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill; Chapel Hill North Carolina 27599 USA
| | - Joel G. Kingsolver
- Department of Biology; University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill; Chapel Hill North Carolina 27599 USA
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Affiliation(s)
- Joel G. Kingsolver
- Department of Biology; University of North Carolina; Chapel Hill North Carolina 27599-3280 USA
| | - Sarah E. Diamond
- Department of Biology; North Carolina State University; Raleigh North Carolina 27695-7617 USA
| | - Lauren B. Buckley
- Department of Biology; University of North Carolina; Chapel Hill North Carolina 27599-3280 USA
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Abstract
Whether movement will enable organisms to alleviate thermal stress is central to the biodiversity implications of climate change. We use the temperature-dependence of ectotherm performance to investigate the fitness consequences of movement. Movement to an optimal location within a 50 km radius will only offset the fitness impacts of climate change by 2100 in 5 per cent of locations globally. Random movement carries an 87 per cent risk of further fitness detriment. Mountainous regions with high temperature seasonality (i.e. temperate areas) not only offer the greatest benefit from optimal movement but also the most severe fitness consequences if an organism moves to the wrong location. Doubling dispersal capacity would provide modest benefit exclusively to directed dispersers in topographically diverse areas. The benefits of movement for escaping climate change are particularly limited in the tropics, where fitness impacts will be most severe. The potential of movement to lessen climate change impacts may have been overestimated.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lauren B Buckley
- Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lauren B. Buckley
- Department of Biology; University of North Carolina; Chapel Hill; North Carolina
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50
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Buckley LB, Nufio CR, Kingsolver JG. Phenotypic clines, energy balances and ecological responses to climate change. J Anim Ecol 2013; 83:41-50. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.12083] [Citation(s) in RCA: 43] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/31/2012] [Accepted: 03/10/2013] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Lauren B. Buckley
- Department of Biology; University of North Carolina; Chapel Hill NC 27599 USA
| | - César R. Nufio
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology; University of Colorado; Boulder CO 80309 USA
- University of Colorado Natural History Museum; University of Colorado; Boulder CO 80309 USA
| | - Joel G. Kingsolver
- Department of Biology; University of North Carolina; Chapel Hill NC 27599 USA
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