A viewpoint on ecological and evolutionary study of plant thermal performance curves in a warming world

We can understand the ecology and evolution of plant thermal niches through thermal performance curves (TPCs), which are unimodal, continuous reaction norms of performance across a temperature gradient. Though there are numerous plant TPC studies, plants remain under-represented in syntheses of TPCs. Further, few studies quantify plant TPCs from fitness-based measurements (i.e. growth, survival and reproduction at the individual level and above), limiting our ability to draw conclusions from the existing literature about plant thermal adaptation. We describe recent plant studies that use a fitness-based TPC approach to test fundamental ecological and evolutionary hypotheses, some of which have uncovered key drivers of climate change responses. Then, we outline three conceptual questions in ecology and evolutionary biology for future plant TPC studies: (i) Do populations and species harbour genetic variation for TPCs? (ii) Do plant TPCs exhibit plastic responses to abiotic and biotic factors? (iii) Do fitness-based TPCs scale up to population-level thermal niches? Moving forward, plant ecologists and evolutionary biologists can capitalize on TPCs to understand how plasticity and adaptation will influence plant responses to climate change.

Mammalian herbivores restrict the altitudinal range limits of alpine plants

Although rarely experimentally tested, biotic interactions have long been hypothesised to limit low-elevation range boundaries of species. We tested the effects of herbivory on three alpine-restricted plant species by transplanting plants below (novel), at the edge (limit), or in the centre (core) of their current elevational range and factorially fencing-out above- and belowground mammals. Herbivore damage was greater in range limit and novel habitats than in range cores. Exclosures increased plant biomass and reproduction more in novel habitats than in range cores, suggesting demographic costs of novel interactions with herbivores. We then used demographic models to project population growth rates, which increased 5-20% more under herbivore exclosure at range limit and novel sites than in core habitats. Our results identify mammalian herbivores as key drivers of the low-elevation range limits of alpine plants and indicate that upward encroachment of herbivores could trigger local extinctions by depressing plant population growth.

Review: Plant eco-evolutionary responses to climate change: Emerging directions

Contemporary climate change is exposing plant populations to novel combinations of temperatures, drought stress, [CO₂] and other abiotic and biotic conditions. These changes are rapidly disrupting the evolutionary dynamics of plants. Despite the multifactorial nature of climate change, most studies typically manipulate only one climatic factor. In this opinion piece, we explore how climate change factors interact with each other and with biotic pressures to alter evolutionary processes. We evaluate the ramifications of climate change across life history stages,and examine how mating system variation influences population persistence under rapid environmental change. Furthermore, we discuss how spatial and temporal mismatches between plants and their mutualists and antagonists could affect adaptive responses to climate change. For example, plant-virus interactions vary from highly pathogenic to mildly facilitative, and are partly mediated by temperature, moisture availability and [CO₂]. Will host plants exposed to novel, stressful abiotic conditions be more susceptible to viral pathogens? Finally, we propose novel experimental approaches that could illuminate how plants will cope with unprecedented global change, such as resurrection studies combined with experimental evolution, genomics or epigenetics.

Regional differences in rapid evolution during severe drought

Climate change is increasing drought intensity, threatening biodiversity. Rapid evolution of drought adaptations might be required for population persistence, particularly in rear-edge populations that may already be closer to physiological limits. Resurrection studies are a useful tool to assess adaptation to climate change, yet these studies rarely encompass the geographic range of a species. Here, we sampled 11 populations of scarlet monkeyflower (Mimulus cardinalis), collecting seeds across the plants' northern, central, and southern range to track trait evolution from the lowest to the greatest moisture anomaly over a 7-year period. We grew families generated from these populations across well-watered and terminal drought treatments in a greenhouse and quantified five traits associated with dehydration escape and avoidance. When considering pre-drought to peak-drought phenotypes, we find that later date of flowering evolved across the range of M. cardinalis, suggesting a shift away from dehydration escape. Instead, traits consistent with dehydration avoidance evolved, with smaller and/or thicker leaves evolving in central and southern regions. The southern region also saw a loss of plasticity in these leaf traits by the peak of the drought, whereas flowering time remained plastic across all regions. This observed shift in traits from escape to avoidance occurred only in certain regions, revealing the importance of geographic context when examining adaptations to climate change.

A resurrection study reveals limited evolution of phenology in response to recent climate change across the geographic range of the scarlet monkeyflower

PREMISE OF THE STUDY

As global climate change alters drought regimes, rapid evolution of traits that facilitate adaptation to drought can rescue populations in decline. The evolution of phenological advancement can allow plant populations to escape drought, but evolutionary responses in phenology can vary across a species' range due to differences in drought intensity and standing genetic variation.

METHODS

Mimulus cardinalis, a perennial herb spanning a broad climatic gradient, recently experienced a period of record drought. Here, we used a resurrection study comparing flowering time and stem height at first flower of pre-drought ancestors and post-drought descendants from northern-edge, central, and southern-edge populations in a common environment to examine the evolution of drought escape across the latitudinal range.

KEY RESULTS

Contrary to the hypothesis of the evolution of advanced phenology in response to recent drought, flowering time did not advance between ancestors and descendants in any population, though storage condition and maternal effects could have impacted these results. Stem height was positively correlated with flowering time, such that plants that flowered earlier were shorter at first flower. This correlation could constrain the evolution of earlier flowering time if selection favors flowering early at a large size.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest that rapid evolution of phenology will not rescue these populations from recent climate change. Future work is needed to examine the potential for the evolution of alternative drought strategies and phenotypic plasticity to buffer M. cardinalis populations from changing climate.

A resurrection study reveals limited evolution of thermal performance in response to recent climate change across the geographic range of the scarlet monkeyflower

Evolutionary rescue can prevent populations from declining under climate change, and should be more likely at high-latitude, "leading" edges of species' ranges due to greater temperature anomalies and gene flow from warm-adapted populations. Using a resurrection study with seeds collected before and after a 7-year period of record warming, we tested for thermal adaptation in the scarlet monkeyflower Mimulus cardinalis. We grew ancestors and descendants from northern-edge, central, and southern-edge populations across eight temperatures. Despite recent climate anomalies, populations showed limited evolution of thermal performance curves. However, one southern population evolved a narrower thermal performance breadth by 1.31°C, which matches the direction and magnitude of the average decrease in seasonality experienced. Consistent with the climate variability hypothesis, thermal performance breadth increased with temperature seasonality across the species' geographic range. Inconsistent with performance trade-offs between low and high temperatures across populations, we did not detect a positive relationship between thermal optimum and mean temperature. These findings fail to support the hypothesis that evolutionary response to climate change is greatest at the leading edge, and suggest that the evolution of thermal performance is unlikely to rescue most populations from the detrimental effects of rapidly changing climate.

Range edges in heterogeneous landscapes: Integrating geographic scale and climate complexity into range dynamics

The impacts of climate change have re-energized interest in understanding the role of climate in setting species geographic range edges. Despite the strong focus on species' distributions in ecology and evolution, defining a species range edge is theoretically and empirically difficult. The challenge of determining a range edge and its relationship to climate is in part driven by the nested nature of geography and the multidimensionality of climate, which together generate complex patterns of both climate and biotic distributions across landscapes. Because range-limiting processes occur in both geographic and climate space, the relationship between these two spaces plays a critical role in setting range limits. With both conceptual and empirical support, we argue that three factors-climate heterogeneity, collinearity among climate variables, and spatial scale-interact to shape the spatial structure of range edges along climate gradients, and we discuss several ways that these factors influence the stability of species range edges with a changing climate. We demonstrate that geographic and climate edges are often not concordant across species ranges. Furthermore, high climate heterogeneity and low climate collinearity across landscapes increase the spectrum of possible relationships between geographic and climatic space, suggesting that geographic range edges and climatic niche limits correspond less frequently than we may expect. More empirical explorations of how the complexity of real landscapes shapes the ecological and evolutionary processes that determine species range edges will advance the development of range limit theory and its applications to biodiversity conservation in the context of changing climate.

Trade-Offs in Cold Resistance at the Northern Range Edge of the Common Woodland Ant Aphaenogaster picea (Formicidae)

Geographic variation in low temperatures at poleward range margins of terrestrial species often mirrors population variation in cold resistance, suggesting that range boundaries may be set by evolutionary constraints on cold physiology. The northeastern woodland ant Aphaenogaster picea occurs up to approximately 45°N in central Maine. We combined presence/absence surveys with classification tree analysis to characterize its northern range limit and assayed two measures of cold resistance operating on different timescales to determine whether and how marginal populations adapt to environmental extremes. The range boundary of A. picea was predicted primarily by temperature, but low winter temperatures did not emerge as the primary correlate of species occurrence. Low summer temperatures and high seasonal variability predicted absence above the boundary, whereas high mean annual temperature (MAT) predicted presence in southern Maine. In contrast, assays of cold resistance across multiple sites were consistent with the hypothesis of local cold adaptation at the range edge: among populations, there was a 4-min reduction in chill coma recovery time across a 2° reduction in MAT. Baseline resistance and capacity for additional plastic cold hardening shifted in opposite directions, with hardening capacity approaching zero at the coldest sites. This trade-off between baseline resistance and cold-hardening capacity suggests that populations at range edges may adapt to colder temperatures through genetic assimilation of plastic responses, potentially constraining further adaptation and range expansion.

Selection, Linkage, and Population Structure Interact To Shape Genetic Variation Among Threespine Stickleback Genomes

The outcome of selection on genetic variation depends on the geographic organization of individuals and populations as well as the organization of loci within the genome. Spatially variable selection between marine and freshwater habitats has had a significant and heterogeneous impact on patterns of genetic variation across the genome of threespine stickleback fish. When marine stickleback invade freshwater habitats, more than a quarter of the genome can respond to divergent selection, even in as little as 50 years. This process largely uses standing genetic variation that can be found ubiquitously at low frequency in marine populations, can be millions of years old, and is likely maintained by significant bidirectional gene flow. Here, we combine population genomic data of marine and freshwater stickleback from Cook Inlet, Alaska, with genetic maps of stickleback fish derived from those same populations to examine how linkage to loci under selection affects genetic variation across the stickleback genome. Divergent selection has had opposing effects on linked genetic variation on chromosomes from marine and freshwater stickleback populations: near loci under selection, marine chromosomes are depauperate of variation, while these same regions among freshwater genomes are the most genetically diverse. Forward genetic simulations recapitulate this pattern when different selective environments also differ in population structure. Lastly, dense genetic maps demonstrate that the interaction between selection and population structure may impact large stretches of the stickleback genome. These findings advance our understanding of how the structuring of populations across geography influences the outcomes of selection, and how the recombination landscape broadens the genomic reach of selection.

Is the sky the limit? On the expansion threshold of a species' range

More than 100 years after Grigg's influential analysis of species' borders, the causes of limits to species' ranges still represent a puzzle that has never been understood with clarity. The topic has become especially important recently as many scientists have become interested in the potential for species' ranges to shift in response to climate change-and yet nearly all of those studies fail to recognise or incorporate evolutionary genetics in a way that relates to theoretical developments. I show that range margins can be understood based on just two measurable parameters: (i) the fitness cost of dispersal-a measure of environmental heterogeneity-and (ii) the strength of genetic drift, which reduces genetic diversity. Together, these two parameters define an 'expansion threshold': adaptation fails when genetic drift reduces genetic diversity below that required for adaptation to a heterogeneous environment. When the key parameters drop below this expansion threshold locally, a sharp range margin forms. When they drop below this threshold throughout the species' range, adaptation collapses everywhere, resulting in either extinction or formation of a fragmented metapopulation. Because the effects of dispersal differ fundamentally with dimension, the second parameter-the strength of genetic drift-is qualitatively different compared to a linear habitat. In two-dimensional habitats, genetic drift becomes effectively independent of selection. It decreases with 'neighbourhood size'-the number of individuals accessible by dispersal within one generation. Moreover, in contrast to earlier predictions, which neglected evolution of genetic variance and/or stochasticity in two dimensions, dispersal into small marginal populations aids adaptation. This is because the reduction of both genetic and demographic stochasticity has a stronger effect than the cost of dispersal through increased maladaptation. The expansion threshold thus provides a novel, theoretically justified, and testable prediction for formation of the range margin and collapse of the species' range.

Demographic compensation does not rescue populations at a trailing range edge

Species' geographic ranges and climatic niches are likely to be increasingly mismatched due to rapid climate change. If a species' range and niche are out of equilibrium, then population performance should decrease from high-latitude "leading" range edges, where populations are expanding into recently ameliorated habitats, to low-latitude "trailing" range edges, where populations are contracting from newly unsuitable areas. Demographic compensation is a phenomenon whereby declines in some vital rates are offset by increases in others across time or space. In theory, demographic compensation could increase the range of environments over which populations can succeed and forestall range contraction at trailing edges. An outstanding question is whether range limits and range contractions reflect inadequate demographic compensation across environmental gradients, causing population declines at range edges. We collected demographic data from 32 populations of the scarlet monkeyflower (Erythranthe cardinalis) spanning 11° of latitude in western North America and used integral projection models to evaluate population dynamics and assess demographic compensation across the species' range. During the 5-y study period, which included multiple years of severe drought and warming, population growth rates decreased from north to south, consistent with leading-trailing dynamics. Southern populations at the trailing range edge declined due to reduced survival, growth, and recruitment, despite compensatory increases in reproduction and faster life-history characteristics. These results suggest that demographic compensation may only delay population collapse without the return of more favorable conditions or the contribution of other buffering mechanisms such as evolutionary rescue.