Stage-Structured Evolutionary Demography: Linking Life Histories, Population Genetics, and Ecological Dynamics

Why is measuring and predicting fitness under genomic conflict so hard?

Genomic conflict between the sexes is caused by differences in the optimal male and female reproductive strategies, and is a major contributor to genetic, phenotypic, and life history variation. While early experimental work appeared to strongly support the sexual conflict paradigm, recent work has produced more ambiguous results. Recent advances in experimental evolution studies combined with theoretical arguments can shed light on why measuring fitness under a conflict is so challenging, including the incidental alteration of mating dynamics, demographic effects, and inherent complexity in what quantity selection maximizes. We stress that non-intuitive results do not necessarily mean the absence of conflict, and follow-up experiments to determine why a priori predictions failed can ultimately teach us more than if they had been confirmed.

Carry-over effects and fitness trade-offs in marine life histories: The costs of complexity for adaptation

Most marine organisms have complex life histories, where the individual stages of a life cycle are often morphologically and ecologically distinct. Nevertheless, life-history stages share a single genome and are linked phenotypically (by "carry-over effects"). These commonalities across the life history couple the evolutionary dynamics of different stages and provide an arena for evolutionary constraints. The degree to which genetic and phenotypic links among stages hamper adaptation in any one stage remains unclear and yet adaptation is essential if marine organisms will adapt to future climates. Here, we use an extension of Fisher's geometric model to explore how both carry-over effects and genetic links among life-history stages affect the emergence of pleiotropic trade-offs between fitness components of different stages. We subsequently explore the evolutionary trajectories of adaptation of each stage to its optimum using a simple model of stage-specific viability selection with nonoverlapping generations. We show that fitness trade-offs between stages are likely to be common and that such trade-offs naturally emerge through either divergent selection or mutation. We also find that evolutionary conflicts among stages should escalate during adaptation, but carry-over effects can ameliorate this conflict. Carry-over effects also tip the evolutionary balance in favor of better survival in earlier life-history stages at the expense of poorer survival in later stages. This effect arises in our discrete-generation framework and is, therefore, unrelated to age-related declines in the efficacy of selection that arise in models with overlapping generations. Our results imply a vast scope for conflicting selection between life-history stages, with pervasive evolutionary constraints emerging from initially modest selection differences between stages. Organisms with complex life histories should also be more constrained in their capacity to adapt to global change than those with simple life histories.

Predicting population responses to environmental change from individual-level mechanisms: towards a standardized mechanistic approach

Animal populations will mediate the response of global biodiversity to environmental changes. Population models are thus important tools for both understanding and predicting animal responses to uncertain future conditions. Most approaches, however, are correlative and ignore the individual-level mechanisms that give rise to population dynamics. Here, we assess several existing population modelling approaches and find limitations to both 'correlative' and 'mechanistic' models. We advocate the need for a standardized mechanistic approach for linking individual mechanisms (physiology, behaviour, and evolution) to population dynamics in spatially explicit landscapes. Such an approach is potentially more flexible and informative than current population models. Key to realizing this goal, however, is overcoming current data limitations, the development and testing of eco-evolutionary theory to represent interactions between individual mechanisms, and standardized multi-dimensional environmental change scenarios which incorporate multiple stressors. Such progress is essential in supporting environmental decisions in uncertain future conditions.

Selection in two-sex stage-structured populations: Genetics, demography, and polymorphism

The outcome of natural selection depends on the demographic processes of birth, death, and development. Here, we derive conditions for protected polymorphism in a population characterized by age- or stage-dependent demography with two sexes. We do so using a novel two-sex matrix population model including basic Mendelian genetics (one locus, two alleles, random mating). Selection may operate on survival, growth, or fertility, any or all of which may differ between the sexes. The model can therefore incorporate genes with arbitrary pleiotropic and sex-specific effects. Conditions for protected polymorphism are expressed in terms of the eigenvalues of the linearization of the model at the homozygote boundary equilibria. We show that in the absence of sexual dimorphism, polymorphism requires heterozygote superiority in the genotypic population growth rate. In the presence of sexual dimorphism, however, heterozygote superiority is not required; an inferior heterozygote may invade, reducing the population growth rate and even leading to extinction (so-called evolutionary suicide). Our model makes no assumptions about separation of time scales between ecological and evolutionary processes, and can thus be used to project sex×stage×genotype dynamics of eco-evolutionary processes. Empirical evidence that sexual dimorphism affects extinction risk is growing, yet sex differences are often ignored in evolutionary demography and in eco-evolutionary models. Our analysis highlights the importance of sexual dimorphism and suggests mechanisms by which an allele can be favored by selection, yet drive a population to extinction, as a result of the structure and interdependence of sex- and stage-specific processes.