Theory in Service of Narratives in Evolution and Ecology

The evolution of chemodiversity in plants-From verbal to quantitative models

Plants harbour a great chemodiversity, that is diversity of specialised metabolites (SMs), at different scales. For instance, individuals can produce a large number of SMs, and populations can differ in their metabolite composition. Given the ecological and economic importance of plant chemodiversity, it is important to understand how it arises and is maintained over evolutionary time. For other dimensions of biodiversity, that is species diversity and genetic diversity, quantitative models play an important role in addressing such questions. Here, we provide a synthesis of existing hypotheses and quantitative models, that is mathematical models and computer simulations, for the evolution of plant chemodiversity. We describe each model's ingredients, that is the biological processes that shape chemodiversity, the scales it considers and whether it has been formalized as a quantitative model. Although we identify several quantitative models, not all are dynamic and many influential models have remained verbal. To fill these gaps, we outline our vision for the future of chemodiversity modelling. We identify quantitative models used for genetic variation that may be adapted for chemodiversity, and we present a flexible framework for the creation of individual-based models that address different scales of chemodiversity and combine different ingredients that bring this chemodiversity about.

Multi-scale effects of habitat loss and the role of trait evolution

Habitat loss (HL) is a major cause of species extinctions. Although the effects of HL beyond the directly impacted area have been previously observed, they have not been modelled explicitly, especially in an eco-evolutionary context. To start filling this gap, we study a two-patch deterministic consumer-resource model, with one of the patches experiencing loss of resources as a special case of HL. Our model allows foraging and mating within a patch as well as between patches. We then introduce heritable variation in consumer traits related to resource utilization and patch use to investigate eco-evolutionary dynamics and compare results with constant and no trait variation scenarios. Our results show that HL in one patch can indeed reduce consumer densities in the neighbouring patch but can also increase consumer densities in the neighbouring patch when the resources are overexploited. Yet at the landscape scale, the effect of HL on consumer densities is consistently negative. Patch isolation increases consumer density in the patch experiencing HL but has generally negative effects on the neighbouring patch, with context-dependent results at the landscape scale. With high cross-patch dependence and coupled foraging and mating preferences, local HL can sometimes even lead to landscape-level consumer extinction. Eco-evolutionary dynamics can rescue consumers from such extinction in some cases if their death rates are sufficiently small. More generally, trait evolution had positive or negative effects on equilibrium consumer densities after HL, depending on the evolving trait and the spatial scale considered. In summary, our findings show that HL at a local scale can affect the neighbouring patch and the landscape as a whole, where heritable trait variation can, in some cases, alleviate the impact of HL. We thus suggest joint consideration of multiple spatial scales and trait variation when assessing and predicting the impacts of HL.

The evolution of dynamic and flexible courtship displays that reveal individual quality

Abstract

Sexual selection is a major force shaping morphological and behavioral diversity. Existing theory focuses on courtship display traits such as morphological ornaments whose costs and benefits are assumed be to fixed across individuals’ lifetimes. In contrast, empirically observed displays are often inherently dynamic, as vividly illustrated by the acrobatic dances, loud vocalizations, and vigorous motor displays involved in courtship behavior across a broad range of taxa. One empirically observed form of display flexibility occurs when signalers adjust their courtship investment based on the number of rival signalers. The predictions of established sexual selection theory cannot readily be extended to such displays because display expression varies between courtship events, such that any given display may not reliably reflect signaler quality. We thus lack an understanding of how dynamic displays coevolve with sexual preferences and how signalers should tactically adjust their display investment across multiple courtship opportunities. To address these questions, we extended an established model of the coevolution of a female sexual preference and a male display trait to allow for flexible, dynamic displays. We find that such a display can coevolve with a sexual preference away from their naturally selected optima, though display intensity is a weaker signal of male quality than for non-flexible displays. Furthermore, we find that males evolve to decrease their display investment when displaying alongside more rivals. This research represents a first step towards generalizing the findings of sexual selection theory to account for the ubiquitous dynamism of animal courtship.

Significance statement

Animal courtship displays are typically costly for survival: songs attract predators; dances are exhausting; extravagant plumage is cumbersome. Because of the trade-off between mating benefits and survival costs, displaying individuals often vary their displays across time, courting more intensely when the potential benefit is higher or the cost is lower. Despite the ubiquity of such adjustment in nature, existing theory cannot account for how this flexibility might affect the coevolution of displays with sexual preferences, nor for the patterns of tactical display adjustment that might result, because those models treat displays as static, with fixed costs and benefits. Generalizing a well-studied model of sexual selection, we find that a static display and a flexible display can evolve under similar conditions. Our model predicts that courtship should be less intense when more competitors are present.

Consilience of methods for phylogenetic analysis of variance

Simulation-based and permutation-based inferential methods are commonplace in phylogenetic comparative methods, especially as evolutionary data have become more complex and parametric methods more limited for their analysis. Both approaches simulate many random outcomes from a null model to empirically generate sampling distributions of statistics. Although simulation-based and permutation-based methods seem commensurate in purpose, results from analysis of variance (ANOVA) based on the distributions of random F-statistics produced by these methods can be quite different in practice. Differences could be from either the null-model process that generates variation across many simulations or random permutations of the data, or different estimation methods for linear model coefficients and statistics. Unfortunately, because the null-model process and coefficient estimation are intrinsically linked in phylogenetic ANOVA methods, the precise reason for methodological differences has not been fully considered. Here we show that the null-model processes of phylogenetic simulation and randomizing residuals in a permutation procedure are indeed commensurate, and that both also produce results consistent with parametric ANOVA, for cases where parametric ANOVA is possible. We also provide results that caution against using ordinary least-squares estimation along with phylogenetic simulation; a typical phylogenetic ANOVA implementation.

Writing Accessible Theory in Ecology and Evolution: Insights from Cognitive Load Theory

Theories underpin science. In biology, theories are often formalized in the form of mathematical models, which may render them inaccessible to those lacking mathematical training. In the present article, we consider how theories could be presented to better aid understanding. We provide concrete recommendations inspired by cognitive load theory, a branch of psychology that addresses impediments to knowledge acquisition. We classify these recommendations into two classes: those that increase the links between new and existing information and those that reduce unnecessary or irrelevant complexities. For each, we provide concrete examples to illustrate the scenarios in which they apply. By enhancing a reader's familiarity with the material, these recommendations lower the mental capacity required to learn new information. Our hope is that these recommendations can provide a pathway for theoreticians to increase the accessibility of their work and for empiricists to engage with theory, strengthening the feedback between theory and experimentation.

Insect-host control of obligate, intracellular symbiont density

Many insects rely on intracellular bacterial symbionts to supplement their specialized diets with micronutrients. Using data from diverse and well-studied insect systems, we propose three lines of evidence suggesting that hosts have tight control over the density of their obligate, intracellular bacterial partners. First, empirical studies have demonstrated that the within-host symbiont density varies depending on the nutritional and developmental requirements of the host. Second, symbiont genomes are highly reduced and have limited capacity for self-replication or transcriptional regulation. Third, several mechanisms exist for hosts to tolerate, regulate and remove symbionts including physical compartmentalization and autophagy. We then consider whether such regulation is adaptive, by discussing the relationship between symbiont density and host fitness. We discuss current limitations of empirical studies for exploring fitness effects in host-symbiont relationships, and emphasize the potential for using mathematical models to formalize evolutionary hypotheses and to generate testable predictions for future work.

A 'How to' guide for interpreting parameters in habitat-selection analyses

Habitat‐selection analyses allow researchers to link animals to their environment via habitat‐selection or step‐selection functions, and are commonly used to address questions related to wildlife management and conservation efforts. Habitat‐selection analyses that incorporate movement characteristics, referred to as integrated step‐selection analyses, are particularly appealing because they allow modelling of both movement and habitat‐selection processes.

Despite their popularity, many users struggle with interpreting parameters in habitat‐selection and step‐selection functions. Integrated step‐selection analyses also require several additional steps to translate model parameters into a full‐fledged movement model, and the mathematics supporting this approach can be challenging for many to understand.

Using simple examples, we demonstrate how weighted distribution theory and the inhomogeneous Poisson point process can facilitate parameter interpretation in habitat‐selection analyses. Furthermore, we provide a ‘how to’ guide illustrating the steps required to implement integrated step‐selection analyses using the amt package

By providing clear examples with open‐source code, we hope to make habitat‐selection analyses more understandable and accessible to end users.

Honest signaling in academic publishing

Academic journals provide a key quality-control mechanism in science. Yet, information asymmetries and conflicts of interests incentivize scientists to deceive journals about the quality of their research. How can honesty be ensured, despite incentives for deception? Here, we address this question by applying the theory of honest signaling to the publication process. Our models demonstrate that several mechanisms can ensure honest journal submission, including differential benefits, differential costs, and costs to resubmitting rejected papers. Without submission costs, scientists benefit from submitting all papers to high-ranking journals, unless papers can only be submitted a limited number of times. Counterintuitively, our analysis implies that inefficiencies in academic publishing (e.g., arbitrary formatting requirements, long review times) can serve a function by disincentivizing scientists from submitting low-quality work to high-ranking journals. Our models provide simple, powerful tools for understanding how to promote honest paper submission in academic publishing.

Hidden layers of density dependence in consumer feeding rates

Functional responses relate a consumer's feeding rates to variation in its abiotic and biotic environment, providing insight into consumer behaviour and fitness, and underpinning population and food-web dynamics. Despite their broad relevance and long-standing history, we show here that the types of density dependence found in classic resource- and consumer-dependent functional-response models equate to strong and often untenable assumptions about the independence of processes underlying feeding rates. We first demonstrate mathematically how to quantify non-independence between feeding and consumer interference and between feeding on multiple resources. We then analyse two large collections of functional-response data sets to show that non-independence is pervasive and borne out in previously hidden forms of density dependence. Our results provide a new lens through which to view variation in consumer feeding rates and disentangle the biological underpinnings of species interactions in multi-species contexts.

Three questions about the eco-physiology of overwintering underground

In cold environments ectotherms can be dormant underground for long periods. In 1941 Cowles proposed an ecological trade-off involving the depth at which ectotherms overwintered: on warm days, only shallow reptiles could detect warming soils and become active; but on cold days, they risked freezing. Cowles discovered that most reptiles at a desert site overwintered at shallow depths. To extend his study, we compiled hourly soil temperatures (5 depths, 90 sites, continental USA) and physiological data, and simulated consequences of overwintering at fixed depths. In warm localities shallow ectotherms have lowest energy costs and largest reserves in spring, but in cold localities, they risk freezing. Ectotherms shifting hourly to the coldest depth potentially reduce energy expenses, but paradoxically sometimes have higher expenses than those at fixed depths. Biophysical simulations for a desert site predict that shallow ectotherms have increased opportunities for mid-winter activity but need to move deep to digest captured food. Our simulations generate testable predictions to eco-physiological questions but rely on physiological responses to acute cold rather than to natural cooling profiles. Furthermore, natural-history data to test most predictions do not exist. Thus, our simulation approach uncovers knowledge gaps and suggests research agendas for studying ectotherms overwintering underground.

An Effective Mutualism? The Role of Theoretical Studies in Ecology and Evolution

Theoretical models often have fundamentally different goals than do empirical studies of the same topic. Models can test the logic of existing hypotheses, explore the plausibility of new hypotheses, provide expectations that can be tested with data, and address aspects of topics that are currently inaccessible empirically. Theoretical models are common in ecology and evolution and are generally well cited, but I show that many citations appearing in nontheoretical studies are general to topic and that a substantial proportion are incorrect. One potential cause of this pattern is that some functions of models are rather abstract, leading to miscommunication between theoreticians and empiricists. Such misunderstandings are often triggered by simplifying logistical assumptions that modelers make. The 2018 Vice Presidential Symposium of the American Society of Naturalists included a variety of mathematical models in ecology and evolution from across several topics. Common threads that appear in the use of the models are identified, highlighting the power of a theoretical approach and the role of the assumptions that such models make.