Doses for post-Chernobyl epidemiological studies: are they reliable?

Dose estimates and their uncertainties for use in epidemiological studies of radiation-exposed populations in the Russian Southern Urals

Many residents of the Russian Southern Urals were exposed to radioactive environmental pollution created by the operations of the Mayak Production Association in the mid- 20th century. There were two major releases: the discharge of about 1x1017 Bq of liquid waste into the Techa River between 1949 and 1959; and the atmospheric release of 7.4 * 1016 Bq as a result an explosion in the radioactive waste-storage facility in 1957. The releases into the Techa River resulted in the exposure of more than 30,000 people who lived in riverside villages between 1950 and 1961. The 1957 accident contaminated a larger area with the highest exposure levels in an area that is called the East Urals Radioactive Trace (EURT). Current epidemiologic studies of the exposed populations are based on dose estimates obtained using a Monte-Carlo dosimetry system (TRDS-2016MC) that provides multiple realizations of the annual doses for each cohort member. These dose realizations provide a central estimate of the individual dose and information on the uncertainty of these dose estimates. In addition, the correlation of individual annual doses over realizations provides important information on shared uncertainties that can be used to assess the impact of shared dose uncertainties on risk estimate uncertainty.This paper considers dose uncertainties in the TRDS-2016MC. Individual doses from external and internal radiation sources were reconstructed for 48,036 people based on environmental contamination patterns, residential histories, individual 90Sr body-burden measurements and dietary intakes. Dietary intake of 90Sr resulted in doses accumulated in active bone marrow (or simply, marrow) that were an order of magnitude greater than those in soft tissues. About 84% of the marrow dose and 50% of the stomach dose was associated with internal exposures. The lognormal distribution is well-fitted to the individual dose realizations, which, therefore, could be expressed and easily operated in terms of geometric mean (GM) and geometric standard deviation (GSD). Cohort average GM for marrow and stomach cumulative doses are 0.21 and 0.03 Gy, respectively. Cohort average dose uncertainties in terms of GSD are as follows: for marrow it is 2.93 (90%CI: 2.02-4.34); for stomach and the other non-calcified tissues it is 2.32 (90% CI: 1.78-2.9).

Soil radioactivity-depth profiles from regularized inversion of borehole gamma spectrometry data

An in situ borehole gamma logging method using a LaBr₃ gamma detector has been developed to characterize a¹³⁷Cs contaminated site. The activity-depth distribution of ¹³⁷Cs was derived by inversion of the in situ measurement data using two different least squares methods, (i) Least squares optimization (LSO) and (ii) Tikhonov regularization. The regularization parameter (λ) of the Tikhonov regularization method was estimated using three different methods i.e. the L-curve, Generalized Cross Validation (GCV) and a prior information based method (PIBM). The considered inversion method variants were first validated for a¹³⁷Cs contaminated pipe, and in most of the cases, the calculated activity of ¹³⁷Cs was found to be within the acceptable range. The calculated ¹³⁷Cs activity-depth profiles from in situ measurements were also in good agreement with the ones obtained from soil sample analysis, with an R² ranging from 0.76 to 0.82. The GCV method for estimating λ appeared to perform better than the two other methods in terms of R² and root mean squared error (RMSE). The L-curve method resulted in higher RMSE than the other Tikhonov regularization methods. Instability was observed in the activity concentration depth profile obtained from the LSO method. Therefore, we recommend the Tikhonov regularization with GCV for estimating λ for estimating the activity concentration-depth profile. The site studied showed ¹³⁷Cs activity concentrations above the exemption limit down to depths of 0.50-0.90 m.

Lithuanian cohort of Chernobyl cleanup workers: Cancer incidence follow-up 1986-2012

BACKGROUND

Cancer risks following radiation exposure in adulthood after Chernobyl are less studied compared to those after exposure in childhood. We aimed to evaluate cancer risk in the Lithuanian cohort of Chernobyl cleanup workers 26 years after their exposure in Chernobyl.

METHODS

Study population (6707 men) was followed for cancer incidence upon return from Chernobyl till the end of 2012 by linkage procedure with the Lithuanian Cancer Registry and for migration and death - with Central Population Registry. The site-specific cancer risk in the cohort was estimated by calculating the standardised incidence ratio (SIR) with 95 % confidence interval (CI).

RESULTS

A total of 596 cancer cases was observed in the cohort, against 584 expected (SIR 1.02; 95 % CI 0.94, 1.11). Only incidence of mouth and pharynx cancers was increased compared to the expected (SIR 1.41; 95 % CI 1.07, 1.86). Nevertheless, an increased risk of thyroid cancer was observed among cleanup workers who were younger than 30 years when entering the Chernobyl zone (SIR 2.90; 95 % CI 1.09, 7.72), whose radiation dose was above 100 milisievert (mSv) (SIR 3.13; 95 % CI 1.30, 7.52) and who had shorter duration of stay (SIR 2.30; 95 % CI 1.03, 5.13).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings are consistent with those observed in other cohorts of workers, namely, the increased risk of cancer sites related to behavioural factors. The increased risk of thyroid cancer among cleanup workers who were younger than 30 years when entering Chernobyl and whose radiation dose was above 100 mSv cannot exclude the association with the radiation exposure in Chernobyl.

Natural radioactivity in Brazil: a systematic review

Natural radioactivity is a public health concern worldwide. Its deleterious effects are largely associated with emitting ionizing particles which generate innumerable toxicological consequences to human being. The present study aimed to describe the research state of the art on natural radioactivity in Brazil through a systematic review limited to articles published in the twenty-first century in the PubMed, SciELO, Lilacs, and Google Scholar databases. A total of 55 research articles were considered for this purpose. Based on the collected sample types, the radiation analysis in most of the scientific reports was performed on solid samples (soil/sediment/rocks), followed by water and air. In fact, most of the available information came from geological studies. A wide range of concentrations and a variety of radionuclides have been assessed, with radium being the most cited. Most of the studies described radiation levels above the international guidelines, and consider the Brazilian territory as a high natural background radiation region (HNBR). In comparison with other HNBR areas, the scientific information about the related risks to human health is still scarce. There is uncertainty about the real impact of natural radioactivity on human health, as there is a lack of scientific information for most of the country about this issue. The analysis and comparison of the available information highlights the potential risks linked to natural radioactivity and the need to incorporate suitable environmental management policies about this issue.

Radiation Exposure to the Thyroid After the Chernobyl Accident

INTRODUCTION

The Chernobyl accident resulted in a considerable release of radioactivity to the atmosphere, particularly of Iodine-131 (¹³¹I), with the greatest contamination occurring in Belarus, Ukraine, and western part of Russia.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Increase in thyroid cancer and other thyroid diseases incidence in population exposed to Chernobyl fallout in these counties was the major health effect of the accident. Therefore, a lot of attention was paid to the thyroid doses, mainly, the ¹³¹I intake during two months after the accident. This paper reviews thyroid doses, both the individual for the subjects of radiation epidemiological studies and population-average doses. Exposure to ¹³¹I intake and other exposure pathways to population of affected regions and the Chernobyl cleanup workers (liquidators) are considered.

RESULTS

Individual thyroid doses due to ¹³¹I intake varied up to 42 Gy and depended on the age of the person, the region where a person was exposed, and their cow's milk consumption habits. Population-average thyroid doses among children of youngest age reached up to 0.75 Gy in the most contaminated area, the Gomel Oblast, in Belarus. Intake of ¹³¹I was the main pathway of exposure to the thyroid gland; its mean contribution to the thyroid dose in affected regions was more than 90%. The mean thyroid dose from inhalation of ¹³¹I for early Chernobyl cleanup workers was estimated to be 0.18 Gy. Individual thyroid doses due to different exposure pathways varied among 1,137 cleanup workers included in the epidemiological studies up to 9 Gy. Uncertainties associated with dose estimates, in terms of mean geometric standard deviation of individual stochastic doses, varied in range from 1.6 for doses based on individual-radiation measurements to 2.6 for "modelled" doses.

CONCLUSION

The ¹³¹I was the most radiologically important radionuclide that resulted in radiation exposure to the thyroid gland and cause an increase in the of rate of thyroid cancer and other thyroid diseases in population exposed after the Chernobyl accident.

Cancers after Chornobyl: From Epidemiology to Molecular Quantification

An overview and new data are presented from cancer studies of the most exposed groups of the population after the Chornobyl accident, performed at the National Research Center for Radiation Medicine (NRCRM). Incidence rates of solid cancers were analyzed for the 1990-2016 period in cleanup workers, evacuees, and the general population from the contaminated areas. In male cleanup workers, the significant increase in rates was demonstrated for cancers in total, leukemia, lymphoma, and thyroid cancer, as well as breast cancer rates were increased in females. Significantly elevated thyroid cancer incidence was identified in the male cleanup workers cohort (150,813) in 1986-2012 with an overall standardized incidence ratio (SIR) of 3.35 (95% CI: 2.91-3.80). A slight decrease in incidence rates was registered starting at 25 years after exposure. In total, 32 of 57 deaths in a group of cleanup workers with confirmed acute radiation syndrome (ARS) or not confirmed ARS (ARS NC) were due to blood malignancies or cancer. Molecular studies in cohort members included gene expression and polymorphism, FISH, relative telomere length, immunophenotype, micronuclei test, histone H2AX, and TORCH infections. Analysis of chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) cases from the cohort showed more frequent mutations in telomere maintenance pathway genes as compared with unexposed CLL patients.

Epidemiology of Late Health Effects in Ukrainian Chornobyl Cleanup Workers

This article summarizes the results of 30 y of follow-up of cancer and noncancer effects in Ukrainian cleanup workers after the Chornobyl accident. The number of power plant employees and first responders with acute radiation syndrome under follow-up by the National Research Center for Radiation Medicine decreased from 179 in 1986-1991 to 105 in 2011-2015. Cancers and leukemia (19) and cardiovascular diseases (21) were the main causes of deaths among acute radiation syndrome survivors (54) during the postaccident period. Increased radiation risks of leukemia in the Ukrainian cohort of 110,645 cleanup workers exposed to low doses are comparable to those among survivors of the atomic bomb explosions in Japan in 1945. Additionally, an excess of chronic lymphocytic leukemia was demonstrated in the cleanup workers cohort for 26 y after the exposure. A significant excess of multiple myeloma incidence [standardized incidence rate (SIR) 1.61 %, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01-2.21], thyroid cancer (SIR 4.18, 95% CI 3.76-4.59), female breast cancer (SIR 1.57 CI 1.40-1.73), and all cancers combined (SIR 1.07; 95% CI 1.05-1.09) was registered. High prevalence was demonstrated for cardio- and cerebrovascular diseases and mental health changes. However, the reasons for the increases require further investigation. To monitor other possible late effects of radiation exposure in Chornobyl cleanup workers, analytical cohort and case-control studies need to include cardiovascular pathology, specifically types of potentially radiogenic cancers using a molecular epidemiology approach. Possible effects for further study include increased rates of thyroid, breast, and lung cancers and multiple myeloma; reduction of radiation risks of leukemia to population levels; and increased morbidity and mortality of cleanup workers from cardio- and cerebrovascular pathology.

A systematic experimental study of parameters influencing 131-iodine in vivo spectroscopic measurements using age-specific thyroid phantoms

In case of nuclear accident, the internal exposure monitoring of the population will preferably focus on the detection of ¹³¹I in the thyroid by in vivo monitoring. In most cases, the calibration of in vivo monitoring is performed with an adult thyroid phantom, which raises doubts regarding the relevance of child exposure assessment. In this study, the influence on the calibration of the thyroid volume, the counting distance and the positioning variations are studied experimentally in a systematic way. A NaI and a germanium detector along with a realistic age-specific set of four thyroid phantoms were used to carry out this study. The thyroid phantom volumes correspond to the following ages: 5, 10, 15 and adult. It was found that the counting efficiency varies linearly with the thyroid volumes for both detectors and whatever the phantom-detector distance is. The variation in counting distance strongly influences the measurement. Whatever the thyroid volume, a 30% difference in efficiency was found between the measurement at the contact and 1 cm for the NaI detector. A mathematical model giving the variation of the counting efficiency as a function of phantom-detector distance is provided. The study of positioning uncertainty has shown that the lateral/vertical displacements induce negligible efficiency variations and that it is relatively independent of the thyroid volume. The counting distance is a major parameter, which must be considered to assess the uncertainty of the subjects' measurements. The data reported here might serve to extract useful orders of magnitude when similar detectors are used. For other detectors, a similar trend might be expected and the information provided here could reduce the amount of experimental work needed to obtain it.

A genomic copy number signature predicts radiation exposure in post-Chernobyl breast cancer

Breast cancer is the second leading cause of cancer death among women worldwide and besides life style, age and genetic risk factors, exposure to ionizing radiation is known to increase the risk for breast cancer. Further, DNA copy number alterations (CNAs), which can result from radiation-induced double-strand breaks, are frequently occurring in breast cancer cells. We set out to identify a signature of CNAs discriminating breast cancers from radiation-exposed and non-exposed female patients. We analyzed resected breast cancer tissues from 68 exposed female Chernobyl clean-up workers and evacuees and 68 matched non-exposed control patients for CNAs by array comparative genomic hybridization analysis (aCGH). Using a stepwise forward-backward selection approach a non-complex CNA signature, that is, less than ten features, was identified in the training data set, which could be subsequently validated in the validation data set (p value < 0.05). The signature consisted of nine copy number regions located on chromosomal bands 7q11.22-11.23, 7q21.3, 16q24.3, 17q21.31, 20p11.23-11.21, 1p21.1, 2q35, 2q35, 6p22.2. The signature was independent of any clinical characteristics of the patients. In all, we identified a CNA signature that has the potential to allow identification of radiation-associated breast cancer at the individual level.