Computational design of hepatitis C virus immunogens from host-pathogen dynamics over empirical viral fitness landscapes

Limits to detecting epistasis in the fitness landscape of HIV

The rapid evolution of HIV is constrained by interactions between mutations which affect viral fitness. In this work, we explore the role of epistasis in determining the mutational fitness landscape of HIV for multiple drug target proteins, including Protease, Reverse Transcriptase, and Integrase. Epistatic interactions between residues modulate the mutation patterns involved in drug resistance, with unambiguous signatures of epistasis best seen in the comparison of the Potts model predicted and experimental HIV sequence “prevalences” expressed as higher-order marginals (beyond triplets) of the sequence probability distribution. In contrast, experimental measures of fitness such as viral replicative capacities generally probe fitness effects of point mutations in a single background, providing weak evidence for epistasis in viral systems. The detectable effects of epistasis are obscured by higher evolutionary conservation at sites. While double mutant cycles in principle, provide one of the best ways to probe epistatic interactions experimentally without reference to a particular background, we show that the analysis is complicated by the small dynamic range of measurements. Overall, we show that global pairwise interaction Potts models are necessary for predicting the mutational landscape of viral proteins.

A Two-Level, Intramutant Spectrum Haplotype Profile of Hepatitis C Virus Revealed by Self-Organized Maps

RNA viruses replicate as complex mutant spectra termed viral quasispecies. The frequency of each individual genome in a mutant spectrum depends on its rate of generation and its relative fitness in the replicating population ensemble. The advent of deep sequencing methodologies allows for the first-time quantification of haplotype abundances within mutant spectra. There is no information on the haplotype profile of the resident genomes and how the landscape evolves when a virus replicates in a controlled cell culture environment. Here, we report the construction of intramutant spectrum haplotype landscapes of three amplicons of the NS5A-NS5B coding region of hepatitis C virus (HCV). Two-dimensional (2D) neural networks were constructed for 44 related HCV populations derived from a common clonal ancestor that was passaged up to 210 times in human hepatoma Huh-7.5 cells in the absence of external selective pressures. The haplotype profiles consisted of an extended dense basal platform, from which a lower number of protruding higher peaks emerged. As HCV increased its adaptation to the cells, the number of haplotype peaks within each mutant spectrum expanded, and their distribution shifted in the 2D network. The results show that extensive HCV replication in a monotonous cell culture environment does not limit HCV exploration of sequence space through haplotype peak movements. The landscapes reflect dynamic variation in the intramutant spectrum haplotype profile and may serve as a reference to interpret the modifications produced by external selective pressures or to compare with the landscapes of mutant spectra in complex in vivo environments. IMPORTANCE The study provides for the first time the haplotype profile and its variation in the course of virus adaptation to a cell culture environment in the absence of external selective constraints. The deep sequencing-based self-organized maps document a two-layer haplotype distribution with an ample basal platform and a lower number of protruding peaks. The results suggest an inferred intramutant spectrum fitness landscape structure that offers potential benefits for virus resilience to mutational inputs.

Estimating the transmissibility of hepatitis C: A modelling study in Yichang City, China

Yichang is a city in central China in the Hubei Province. This study aimed to estimate the dynamics of the transmissibility of hepatitis C using a mathematical model and predict the transmissibility of hepatitis C in 2030. Data of hepatitis C cases from 13 counties or districts (cities) in Yichang from 2008 to 2016 were collected. A susceptible-infectious-chronic-recovered (SICR) model was developed to fit the data. The transmissibility of hepatitis C at the counties or districts was calculated based on new infections (including infected or chronically infected cases) reported monthly in the city caused by one infectious individual (MNI). The trend of the MNI was fitted and predicted using 11 models, with the coefficient of determination (R² ) was being used to test the goodness of fit of these models. A total of 3065 cases of hepatitis C were reported in Yichang from 2008 to 2016. The median MNI of Yichang was 0.0768. According to the fitting results and analysis, the trend of transmissibility of hepatitis C in Yichang City conforms with the logarithmic (R²  = 0.918, p < 0.001):MNI = 0.265-0.108 log(t) and exponential (R²  = 0.939, p < 0.001): MNI = 0.344e^(-0.278t) models. Hence, the transmission of hepatitis C virus at the county level has a downward trend. In conclusion, the transmissibility of hepatitis C in Yichang has a downward trend. With the current preventive and control measures in place, the spread of hepatitis C can be controlled.

Population Disequilibrium as Promoter of Adaptive Explorations in Hepatitis C Virus

Replication of RNA viruses is characterized by exploration of sequence space which facilitates their adaptation to changing environments. It is generally accepted that such exploration takes place mainly in response to positive selection, and that further diversification is boosted by modifications of virus population size, particularly bottleneck events. Our recent results with hepatitis C virus (HCV) have shown that the expansion in sequence space of a viral clone continues despite prolonged replication in a stable cell culture environment. Diagnosis of the expansion was based on the quantification of diversity indices, the occurrence of intra-population mutational waves (variations in mutant frequencies), and greater individual residue variations in mutant spectra than those anticipated from sequence alignments in data banks. In the present report, we review our previous results, and show additionally that mutational waves in amplicons from the NS5A-NS5B-coding region are equally prominent during HCV passage in the absence or presence of the mutagenic nucleotide analogues favipiravir or ribavirin. In addition, by extending our previous analysis to amplicons of the NS3- and NS5A-coding region, we provide further evidence of the incongruence between amino acid conservation scores in mutant spectra from infected patients and in the Los Alamos National Laboratory HCV data banks. We hypothesize that these observations have as a common origin a permanent state of HCV population disequilibrium even upon extensive viral replication in the absence of external selective constraints or changes in population size. Such a persistent disequilibrium—revealed by the changing composition of the mutant spectrum—may facilitate finding alternative mutational pathways for HCV antiviral resistance. The possible significance of our model for other genetically variable viruses is discussed.

In silico T cell epitope identification for SARS-CoV-2: Progress and perspectives

Growing evidence suggests that T cells may play a critical role in combating severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Hence, COVID-19 vaccines that can elicit a robust T cell response may be particularly important. The design, development and experimental evaluation of such vaccines is aided by an understanding of the landscape of T cell epitopes of SARS-CoV-2, which is largely unknown. Due to the challenges of identifying epitopes experimentally, many studies have proposed the use of in silico methods. Here, we present a review of the in silico methods that have been used for the prediction of SARS-CoV-2 T cell epitopes. These methods employ a diverse set of technical approaches, often rooted in machine learning. A performance comparison is provided based on the ability to identify a specific set of immunogenic epitopes that have been determined experimentally to be targeted by T cells in convalescent COVID-19 patients, shedding light on the relative performance merits of the different approaches adopted by the in silico studies. The review also puts forward perspectives for future research directions.

100th Anniversary of Macromolecular Science Viewpoint: Data-Driven Protein Design

The design of synthetic proteins with the desired function is a long-standing goal in biomolecular science, with broad applications in biochemical engineering, agriculture, medicine, and public health. Rational de novo design and experimental directed evolution have achieved remarkable successes but are challenged by the requirement to find functional "needles" in the vast "haystack" of protein sequence space. Data-driven models for fitness landscapes provide a predictive map between protein sequence and function and can prospectively identify functional candidates for experimental testing to greatly improve the efficiency of this search. This Viewpoint reviews the applications of machine learning and, in particular, deep learning as part of data-driven protein engineering platforms. We highlight recent successes, review promising computational methodologies, and provide an outlook on future challenges and opportunities. The article is written for a broad audience comprising both polymer and protein scientists and computer and data scientists interested in an up-to-date review of recent innovations and opportunities in this rapidly evolving field.

The transmissibility of hepatitis C virus: a modelling study in Xiamen City, China

This study aimed at estimating the transmissibility of hepatitis C. The data for hepatitis C cases were collected in six districts in Xiamen City, China from 2004 to 2018. A population-mixed susceptible-infectious-chronic-recovered (SICR) model was used to fit the data and the parameters of the model were calculated. The basic reproduction number (R0) and the number of newly transmitted cases by a primary case per month (MNI) were adopted to quantitatively assess the transmissibility of hepatitis C virus (HCV). Eleven curve estimation models were employed to predict the trends of R0 and MNI in the city. The SICR model fits the reported HCV data well (P < 0.01). The median R0 of each district in Xiamen is 0.4059. R0 follows the cubic model curve, the compound curve and the power function curve. The median MNI of each district in Xiamen is 0.0020. MNI follows the cubic model curve, the compound curve and the power function curve. The transmissibility of HCV follows a decreasing trend, which reveals that under the current policy for prevention and control, there would be a high feasibility to eliminate the transmission of HCV in the city.

Dissimilar Conservation Pattern in Hepatitis C Virus Mutant Spectra, Consensus Sequences, and Data Banks

The influence of quasispecies dynamics on long-term virus diversification in nature is a largely unexplored question. Specifically, whether intra-host nucleotide and amino acid variation in quasispecies fit the variation observed in consensus sequences or data bank alignments is unknown. Genome conservation and dynamics simulations are used for the computational design of universal vaccines, therapeutic antibodies and pan-genomic antiviral agents. The expectation is that selection of escape mutants will be limited when mutations at conserved residues are required. This strategy assumes long-term (epidemiologically relevant) conservation but, critically, does not consider short-term (quasispecies-dictated) residue conservation. We calculated mutant frequencies of individual loci from mutant spectra of hepatitis C virus (HCV) populations passaged in cell culture and from infected patients. Nucleotide or amino acid conservation in consensus sequences of the same populations, or in the Los Alamos HCV data bank did not match residue conservation in mutant spectra. The results relativize the concept of sequence conservation in viral genetics and suggest that residue invariance in data banks is an insufficient basis for the design of universal viral ligands for clinical purposes. Our calculations suggest relaxed mutational restrictions during quasispecies dynamics, which may contribute to higher calculated short-term than long-term viral evolutionary rates.

Epistatic contributions promote the unification of incompatible models of neutral molecular evolution

Mathematical models of evolution help us understand mechanisms driving protein-sequence change. Previous models recapitulate a disjoint subset of statistical features of natural sequences. We present a neutral evolution model that unifies features including extreme variance of the molecular clock’s tick rate and the observation of an evolutionary Stokes shift, an irreversible effect of mutations in the fitness landscape during sequence evolution. We show that interactions between amino acid sites, which inform our fitness metric, are required to observe these features. These interactions are inferred by using direct coupling analysis, which has been successfully utilized to predict protein structures, dynamics, and complexes from coevolutionary information. We anticipate our model will have applications in phylogenetics, ancestral reconstruction of sequences, and protein design.

We introduce a model of amino acid sequence evolution that accounts for the statistical behavior of real sequences induced by epistatic interactions. We base the model dynamics on parameters derived from multiple sequence alignments analyzed by using direct coupling analysis methodology. Known statistical properties such as overdispersion, heterotachy, and gamma-distributed rate-across-sites are shown to be emergent properties of this model while being consistent with neutral evolution theory, thereby unifying observations from previously disjointed evolutionary models of sequences. The relationship between site restriction and heterotachy is characterized by tracking the effective alphabet dynamics of sites. We also observe an evolutionary Stokes shift in the fitness of sequences that have undergone evolution under our simulation. By analyzing the structural information of some proteins, we corroborate that the strongest Stokes shifts derive from sites that physically interact in networks near biochemically important regions. Perspectives on the implementation of our model in the context of the molecular clock are discussed.

The role of coevolutionary signatures in protein interaction dynamics, complex inference, molecular recognition, and mutational landscapes

Evolution imposes constraints at the interface of interacting biomolecules in order to preserve function or maintain fitness. This pressure may have a direct effect on the sequence composition of interacting biomolecules. As a result, statistical patterns of amino acid or nucleotide covariance that encode for physical and functional interactions are observed in sequences of extant organisms. In recent years, global pairwise models of amino acid and nucleotide coevolution from multiple sequence alignments have been developed and utilized to study molecular interactions in structural biology. In proteins, for which the energy landscape is funneled and minimally frustrated, a direct connection between the physical and sequence space landscapes can be established. Estimating coevolutionary information from sequences of interacting molecules has a broad impact in molecular biology. Applications include the accurate determination of 3D structures of molecular complexes, inference of protein interaction partners, models of protein-protein interaction specificity, the elucidation, and design of protein-nucleic acid recognition as well as the discovery of genome-wide epistatic effects. The current state of the art of coevolutionary analysis includes biomedical applications ranging from mutational landscapes and drug-design to vaccine development.