The HIV type 1 epidemic in Bulgaria involves multiple subtypes and is sustained by continuous viral inflow from West and East European countries

Analysis of the Origin and Dissemination of HIV-1 Subtype C in Bulgaria

HIV-1 subtype C is the most abundant strain of HIV-1 infections worldwide and was found in the first known patients diagnosed with HIV/AIDS in Bulgaria in 1986. However, there is limited information on the molecular-epidemiological characteristics of this strain in the epidemic of the country. In this study, we analyze the evolutionary history of the introduction and dissemination of HIV-1 subtype C in Bulgaria using global phylogenetic analysis, Bayesian coalescent-based approach, and molecular clock methods. All available samples with HIV-1 subtype C from individuals diagnosed with HIV/AIDS between 1986 and 2017 were analyzed. Men and women were equally represented, and 24.3% of patients reported being infected abroad. The global phylogenetic analysis indicated multiple introductions of HIV-1 subtype C from various countries of the world. The reconstruction of a Bayesian time-scaled phylogenies showed that several Bulgarian strains segregated together in clusters, while others were intermixed in larger clades containing strains isolated from both European and non-European countries. The time-scale of HIV-1 subtype C introductions in Bulgaria demonstrates the early introduction of these viruses in the country. Our in-depth phylogenetic and phylogeographic analyses are compatible with a scenario of multiple early introductions in the country followed by limited local distribution in the subsequent years. HIV-1 subtype C was introduced in the early years of the epidemic, originating from different countries of the world. Due to the comprehensive measures for prevention and control in the early years of the epidemic in Bulgaria, HIV-1 subtype C was not widely disseminated among the general population of the country.

Origin and evolution of HIV-1 subtype A6

Background

HIV outbreaks in the Former Soviet Union (FSU) countries were characterized by repeated transmission of the HIV variant AFSU, which is now classified as a distinct subtype A sub-subtype called A6. The current study used phylogenetic/phylodynamic and signature mutation analyses to determine likely evolutionary relationship between subtype A6 and other subtype A sub-subtypes.

Methods

For this study, an initial Maximum Likelihood phylogenetic analysis was performed using a total of 553 full-length, publicly available, reverse transcriptase sequences, from A1, A2, A3, A4, A5, and A6 sub-subtypes of subtype A. For phylogenetic clustering and signature mutation analysis, a total of 5961 and 3959 pol and env sequences, respectively, were used.

Results

Phylogenetic and signature mutation analysis showed that HIV-1 sub-subtype A6 likely originated from sub-subtype A1 of African origin. A6 and A1 pol and env genes shared several signature mutations that indicate genetic similarity between the two subtypes. For A6, tMRCA dated to 1975, 15 years later than that of A1.

Conclusion

The current study provides insights into the evolution and diversification of A6 in the backdrop of FSU countries and indicates that A6 in FSU countries evolved from A1 of African origin and is getting bridged outside the FSU region.

Transmitted drug resistance among HIV-1 drug-naïve patients in Greece

OBJECTIVES

Despite the success of antiretroviral treatment (ART), the persisting transmitted drug resistance (TDR) and HIV genetic heterogeneity affect the efficacy of treatment. This study explored the prevalence of TDR among ART-naïve HIV patients in Greece during the period 2016-2019.

METHODS

Genotypic resistance testing was available for 438 ART-naïve HIV patients. Multivariable Poisson regression models were fitted.

RESULTS

The majority of patients were male, and there was a slight predominance of Hellenic (26.5%) over non-Hellenic (21.9%) nationality. The prevalence of TDR was 7.8%. There was a predominance of mutations for non-nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors (5.7%) over nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors (0.2%). No mutations to protease inhibitors were detected. The prevalence of resistance was 22.1% based on all mutations identified through the HIVdb interpretation system. The most frequent resistance sites were E138A (9.6%), K103N (6.4%), and K101E (2.1%). The majority of detected mutations were confined to subtype A (52.6%), followed by B (19.6%). Non-Hellenic nationality was significantly associated with an increased risk of TDR (relative risk 1.32, 95% confidence interval 1.04-1.69).

CONCLUSIONS

Non-B HIV infections predominate in Greece, with an increasing trend in recent years. The prevalence of TDR remains stable. Ongoing surveillance of resistance testing is needed to secure the long-term success of ART.

Molecular Epidemiology of the HIV-1 Subtype B Sub-Epidemic in Bulgaria

HIV-1 subtype B is the predominant strain in Bulgaria, yet little is known about the molecular epidemiology of these infections, including its origin and transmissibility. We used a phylodynamics approach by combining and analyzing 663 HIV-1 polymerase (pol) sequences collected from persons diagnosed with HIV/AIDS between 1988-2018 and associated epidemiologic data to better understand this sub-epidemic in Bulgaria. Using network analyses at a 1.5% genetic distance threshold (d) we found several large phylogenetic clusters composed mostly of men who have sex with men (MSM) and male heterosexuals (HET). However, at d = 0.5%, used to identify more recent transmission, the largest clusters dissociated to become smaller in size. The majority of female HET and persons with other transmission risks were singletons or pairs in the network. Phylogenetic analysis of the Bulgarian pol sequences with publicly available global sequences showed that subtype B was likely introduced into Bulgaria from multiple countries, including Israel and several European countries. Our findings indicate that subtype B was introduced into Bulgaria multiple times since 1988 and then infections rapidly spread among MSM and non-disclosed MSM. These high-risk behaviors continue to spread subtype B infection in Bulgaria as evidenced by the large clusters at d = 0.5%. Relatively low levels of antiretroviral drug resistance were observed in our study. Prevention strategies should continue to include increased testing and linkage to care and treatment, as well as expanded outreach to the MSM communities.

The prevalence of hepatitis B and C co-infections among people with HIV-1 in Bulgaria: 2010–2015

Aim: To evaluate hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) among individuals with HIV/AIDS in Bulgaria diagnosed between 2010 and 2015. Materials & methods: A total of 1158 individuals were diagnosed with HIV/AIDS during the study period. Different transmission groups were tested with ELISA and real-time PCR for HBV and HCV markers. Results: Hepatitis B surface antigen and hepatitis C virus antiboby were found in 9.3 and 23.2% of the tested. HBV DNA and HCV RNA has been found in 47.4 and 69.6%. Hepatitis B and C co-infections were predominant in multiple risk behavior groups, including people who inject drugs, men who have sex with men, prisoners and Roma individuals. Conclusion: HIV prevalence in Bulgaria is low but the rates of hepatitis B and C co-infections among these patients fall within the upper range reported in Europe.

Origin and Spread of HIV-1 Subtype B Among Heterosexual Individuals in Bulgaria

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) was originally introduced in Bulgaria through heterosexual transmission (HET) and later transferred to other vulnerable groups along with numerous more recent introductions from outside Bulgaria. To define the diversity, origins, and dynamics of the HIV-1 subtypes prevalent in HET population in Bulgaria, we applied phylogenetic and phylodynamic analyses using polymerase (pol) sequences from HET individuals to infer the spatiotemporal evolutionary history of the HIV-1 epidemic in this population in Bulgaria. High genetic diversity was found, including 13 different HIV-1 subtypes: 45.7% subtype B, 19.9% CRF01_AE, 7.5% CRF02_AG, 7.5% sub-subtypes A1 and A6, 7.1% subtype C, 5.3% subtype F1, 4.0% URFs, 1.2% CRF05_DF, 0.6% subtype G, 0.3% CRF04_cpx, 0.3% CRF29_BF, 0.3% CRF14_BG, and 0.3% subtype H. The estimated root of the subtype B in the phylogenetic tree dated back to the year 1980 largely due to multiple introductions of subtype B from outside the country. Several significant clades have been identified highlighting six different main epidemic entrances of subtype B dating from 1989 to 2007. The Bayesian skyline plot showed two different exponential growth periods starting in the 1980s to 1990 followed by a constant phase up to about 2008, with another exponential growth period from 2008 to the year 2012. The migration analysis identified dynamic pattern of gene flow and demonstrated that many HET probably acquired the infection abroad (14.6%), while only (6.6%) of non-HET were infected outside country. The phylogenetic analysis showed an intermixing between sequences from Bulgarians with sequences from other countries, suggesting different HIV introduction in this country followed by the internal spread through local transmission networks.

Evolutionary dynamics of HBV-D7 subgenotype in Tunisia

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) is the main cause of diseases liver related infecting more than 200 milion persons worldwide. HBV infection shows high level of prevalence in South-East Europe and in Mediterranean basin. In Tunisia, a country with an intermediate level endemicity, HbsAg prevalence ranges from 2 to 5%. Most of the HBV isolates from Tunisia were classified as subgenotype D7 whose circulation is restricted to a specific area of North Africa including Maghreb region. In this paper, the phylogeny of HBV-D7 isolated from 38 Tunisian patients was investigated by analyzing the S gene region of HBV. A Bayesian coalescent-based framework was used to estimate the origin of the HBV-D7 in the country. The Tunisian D7 isolates were found to share a common ancestor whose origin was traced back to 1958. Population dynamics indicated that HBV-D7 epidemic in Tunisia grew exponentially from 1960s to 1990s. After that, the curve reached a plateau around the years 2000 likely due to the implementation of the infant vaccination program in 1996. Epidemiological data suggested that the exponential growth phase was likely sustained by intra-familial transmission events occurring during infancy. Further characterization of HBV-D7 isolates should be performed to evaluate, in the post-vaccination era, the emergence of new transmission routes, and to monitor the efficacy of the vaccination program. J. Med. Virol. 89:469-475, 2017. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Molecular epidemiology of HIV-1 infection in Europe: An overview

Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV-1) is characterised by vast genetic diversity. Globally circulating HIV-1 viruses are classified into distinct phylogenetic strains (subtypes, sub-subtypes) and several recombinant forms. Here we describe the characteristics and evolution of European HIV-1 epidemic over time through a review of published literature and updated queries of existing HIV-1 sequence databases. HIV-1 in Western and Central Europe was introduced in the early-1980s in the form of subtype B, which is still the predominant clade. However, in Eastern Europe (Former Soviet Union (FSU) countries and Russia) the predominant strain, introduced into Ukraine in the mid-1990s, is subtype A (A_FSU) with transmission mostly occurring in People Who Inject Drugs (PWID). In recent years, the epidemic is evolving towards a complex tapestry with an increase in the prevalence of non-B subtypes and recombinants in Western and Central Europe. Non-B epidemics are mainly associated with immigrants, heterosexuals and females but more recently, non-B clades have also spread amongst groups where non-B strains were previously absent - non-immigrant European populations and amongst men having sex with men (MSM). In some countries, non-B clades have spread amongst the native population, for example subtype G in Portugal and subtype A in Greece, Albania and Cyprus. Romania provides a unique case where sub-subtype F1 has predominated throughout the epidemic. In contrast, HIV-1 epidemic in FSU countries remains more homogeneous with A_FSU clade predominating in all countries. The differences between the evolution of the Western epidemic and the Eastern epidemic may be attributable to differences in transmission risk behaviours, lifestyle and the patterns of human mobility. The study of HIV-1 epidemic diversity provides a useful tool by which we can understand the history of the pandemic in addition to allowing us to monitor the spread and growth of the epidemic over time.

Molecular epidemiology and phylogeny of Nipah virus infection: A mini review

Nipah virus (NiV) is a member of the genus Henipavirus of the family Paramyxoviridae, characterized by high pathogenicity and endemic in South Asia. It is classified as a Biosafety Level-4 (BSL-4) agent. The case-fatality varies from 40% to 70% depending on the severity of the disease and on the availability of adequate healthcare facilities. At present no antiviral drugs are available for NiV disease and the treatment is just supportive. Phylogenetic and evolutionary analyses can be used to help in understanding the epidemiology and the temporal origin of this virus. This review provides an overview of evolutionary studies performed on Nipah viruses circulating in different countries. Thirty phylogenetic studies have been published from 2000 to 2015 years, searching on pub-med using the key words ‘Nipah virus AND phylogeny’ and twenty-eight molecular epidemiological studies from 2006 to 2015 have been performed, typing the key words ‘Nipah virus AND molecular epidemiology’. Overall data from the published study demonstrated as phylogenetic and evolutionary analysis represent promising tools to evidence NiV epidemics, to study their origin and evolution and finally to act with effective preventive measure.

Origin and spread of HIV-1 in persons who inject drugs in Bulgaria

Increased HIV transmission in persons who inject drugs (PWIDs) has led to subepidemics and outbreaks in several countries in Europe, including Bulgaria. In this study in Bulgaria, we investigate the origin and spatiotemporal evolutionary history of HIV-1 infections in PWIDs and the distribution of antiretroviral resistance mutations and hepatitis co-infections in these populations. We analyzed HIV-1 polymerase sequences available from 117 of 359 PWIDs diagnosed with HIV/AIDS from 1999 to 2011. Of these, 50 (42.7%) were classified as CRF02_AG, 41 (35.0%) CRF01_AE, 12 (10.3%) URFs, ten (8.5%) subtype B, two (1.7%) subtype F1 and two (1.7%) CRF14_BG. Most recent common ancestor dating suggests that CRF01_AE was likely first introduced from Southeast Asia into persons reporting heterosexual infection in Bulgaria in 1992 and spread subsequently to PWIDs in the capital city of Sofia around 2003. Conversely, CRF02_AG in Bulgaria was likely first introduced into PWID from Germany in 2000 and later entered heterosexual populations around 2009. The overall prevalence of resistance mutations was 6.8% (8/117), of which 5.1% (5/117) was observed in patients on antiretroviral therapy and 1.7% (2/117) was from transmitted drug resistance mutations in drug-naïve individuals. 189/204 (92.6%) PWIDs were also co-infected with hepatitis C (HCV) and 31/183 (16.9%) were co-infected with hepatitis B (HBV). Our study provides valuable molecular epidemiological information on the introduction and distribution of the main HIV-1 subtypes, resistance mutations and hepatitis co-infections among PWIDs with HIV-1 in Bulgaria which can be used to target prevention efforts.

Genetic diversity of the haemagglutinin (HA) of human influenza a (H1N1) virus in montenegro: Focus on its origin and evolution

In 2009 an influenza A epidemic caused by a swine origin H1N1strain, unusual in human hosts, has been described. The present research is aimed to perform the first phylogenetic investigation on the influenza virus A (H1N1) strains circulating in Montenegro, from December 1, 2009, when the first case of death due to H1N1 was confirmed, and the epidemic began causing a total of four fatalities. The phylogenetic analysis of the strains circulating showed the absence of a pure Montenegrin cluster, suggesting the occurrence of multiple re-introductions in that population from different areas till as far as the early 2010. The time to most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) for the complete dataset has been dated in early 2008, pre-dating the first Montenegrin identification of H1N1 infection. These data suggest that virus was spreading undetected, may be as a consequence of unidentified infections in returning travelers. Anyhow, the estimated TMRCA of Montenegrin strains is fully consistent to that found in different areas. Compatibly with the time coverage of the study period here analyzed, molecular dynamic of Montenegrin strains follows similar trend as in other countries. J. Med. Virol. 88:1905-1913, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

HIV-1 A1 Subtype Epidemic in Italy Originated from Africa and Eastern Europe and Shows a High Frequency of Transmission Chains Involving Intravenous Drug Users

Background

Subtype A accounts for only 12% of HIV-1 infections worldwide but predominates in Russia and Former Soviet Union countries of Eastern Europe. After an early propagation via heterosexual contacts, this variant spread explosively among intravenous drug users. A distinct A1 variant predominates in Greece and Albania, which penetrated directly from Africa. Clade A1 accounts for 12.5% of non-B subtypes in Italy, being the most frequent after F1 subtype.

Aim

Aim of this study was to investigate the circulation of A1 subtype in Italy and trace its origin and diffusion through phylogenetic and phylodynamic approaches.

Results

The phylogenetic analysis of 113 A1 pol sequences included in the Italian ARCA database, indicated that 71 patients (62.8%) clustered within 5 clades. A higher probability to be detected in clusters was found for patients from Eastern Europe and Italy (88.9% and 60.4%, respectively) compared to those from Africa (20%) (p < .001). Higher proportions of clustering sequences were found in intravenous drug users with respect to heterosexuals (85.7% vs. 59.3%, p = .056) and in women with respect to men (81.4% vs. 53.2%, p < .006). Subtype A1 dated phylogeny indicated an East African origin around 1961. Phylogeographical reconstruction highlighted 3 significant groups. One involved East European and some Italian variants, the second encompassed some Italian and African strains, the latter included the majority of viruses carried by African and Italian subjects and all viral sequences from Albania and Greece.

Conclusions

Subtype A1 originated in Central Africa and spread among East European countries in 1982. It entered Italy through three introduction events: directly from East Africa, from Albania and Greece, and from the area encompassing Moldavia and Ukraine. As in previously documented A1 epidemics of East European countries, HIV-1 A1 subtype spread in Italy in part through intravenous drug users. However, Eastern European women contributed to the penetration of such variant, probably through sex work.

Short Communication: HIV-1 Subtype B in the Dominican Republic: Evolution and Molecular Epidemiology

The Caribbean region has the world second highest incidence rate of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome. The island of Hispaniola is composed of two sovereign nations: the Dominican Republic and Haiti. Together, they account for more than 85% of HIV/AIDS cases in the Caribbean; and the Dominican Republic alone has approximately 46,000 (33,000-59,000) HIV-1-infected adults and children. Despite this, the magnitude of the genetic variability and evolution of the HIV-1 virus in the Dominican Republic is unclear. In the current study, we analyzed 195 reverse transcriptase (RT) sequences obtained from the Los Alamos HIV database. The data were used to assess the course of the viral epidemic over time in the Dominican Republic, using a coalescent approach. Based on the data, we estimated that the timing of the most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) of local HIV-1 subtype B emerged in 1963, approximately. In addition, the Bayesian analysis provided new information that suggests that the epidemic in the Dominican Republic experienced a significant decrease in relative genetic diversity in the past 2 decades. The results suggest that adherence to antiretroviral therapy, adequate prevention campaigns, and better access to health care may be altering the virus's evolution in the Dominican Republic.

Low HIV-1 transmitted drug resistance in Bulgaria against a background of high clade diversity

OBJECTIVES

To determine transmitted drug resistance (TDR) and HIV-1 genetic diversity in Bulgaria.

METHODS

The prevalence of TDR and HIV-1 subtypes was determined in 305/1446 (21.1%) persons newly diagnosed with HIV/AIDS from 1988 to 2011. TDR mutations (TDRMs) in protease and reverse transcriptase were defined using the WHO HIV drug mutation list. Phylogenetic analysis was used to infer polymerase (pol) genotype.

RESULTS

TDRMs were found in 16/305 (5.2%) persons, 11 (3.6%) with resistance to NRTIs, 5 (1.6%) with resistance to NNRTIs and 3 (0.9%) with resistance to PIs. Dual-class TDRMs were found in three (1.0%) patients and one statistically supported cluster of TDRMs comprising two individuals with subtype B infection. TDRMs were found in 10 heterosexuals, 4 MSM and two intravenous drug users. Phylogenetic analyses identified high HIV-1 diversity consisting of mostly subtype B (44.6%), subtype C (3.3%), sub-subtype A1 (2.6%), sub-subtype F1 (2.3%), sub-subtype A-like (3.6%), subtype G (0.3%), CRF14_BG (1.6%), CRF05_DF (1.3%), CRF03_AB (0.3%) and unique recombinant forms (1.3%).

CONCLUSIONS

We found a low prevalence of TDR against a background of high HIV-1 genetic diversity among antiretroviral-naive patients in Bulgaria. Our results provide baseline data on TDR and support continued surveillance of high-risk populations in Bulgaria to better target treatment and prevention efforts.

Molecular analysis of hepatitis B virus in Bulgaria

Hepatitis B virus infection is a global health problem. Based on the sequence divergence of the entire genome, hepatitis B virus has been classified into eight genotypes which have a characteristic geographic distribution. To date, no data are available on the molecular epidemiology of hepatitis B virus in Bulgaria. The aim of the present study was to reconstruct the epidemiological history of HBV genotypes/subgenotypes circulating in Bulgaria using a phylodynamic approach and a Bayesian statistical inference framework. Sequence analysis of the HBsAg/Reverse Transcriptase overlapping genomic regions revealed that D1 and A2 were the subgenotypes detected most frequently in the patients examined. The tMRCA estimations of the few HBV D1 Bulgarian significant clades dated back to 23-27 years ago, corresponding to the early 1980s. The HBV A2 Bulgarian sequences fell into two closely related supported clusters dated to 2003 and 1996 years, respectively, suggesting a more recent introduction of subgenotype A2 into Bulgaria. The study provides new information about the HBV subgenotypes in Bulgaria.

Molecular epidemiology of recent HIV-1 infections in southern Poland

The genetic diversity of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) offers an opportunity to track the development of the epidemic across different populations. Viral pol gene fragments from 55 individuals of Polish origin with recent HIV-1 infection identified in 2008-2010 in four Polish cities were analyzed. Viral sequences were compared with sequences from 100 individuals (reference group) infected before 2004. Viral spread among groups with different HIV transmission categories was compared using a phylogenetic approach. The majority of sequences from individuals with recent infection were subtype B (93%) within which four transmission clusters (18% of samples) were detected. Samples from men infected through sex between men and from persons infected through injecting drugs were broadly separated (P < 0.0001), while samples from individuals infected by heterosexual contacts were dispersed uniformly within phylogenetic tree (P = 0.244) inferred from viral sequences derived from individuals infected recently and the reference group. The percentage of samples from persons infected by heterosexual contacts which clustered with samples from men infected through sex between men was not significantly higher for those with recent infection (47%), compared to the reference group (36%). In conclusion, men infected by sex between men and individuals infected through injecting drugs appear to form separate HIV transmission networks in Poland. The recent spread of HIV-1 among persons infected with subtype B by heterosexual contacts appears to be linked to both these groups.

Detailed molecular epidemiologic characterization of HIV-1 infection in Bulgaria reveals broad diversity and evolving phylodynamics

Limited information is available to describe the molecular epidemiology of HIV-1 in Bulgaria. To better understand the genetic diversity and the epidemiologic dynamics of HIV-1 we analyzed 125 new polymerase (pol) sequences from Bulgarians diagnosed through 2009 and 77 pol sequences available from our previous study from persons infected prior to 2007. Epidemiologic and demographic information was obtained from each participant and phylogenetic analysis was used to infer HIV-1 evolutionary histories. 120 (59.5%) persons were infected with one of five different HIV-1 subtypes (A1, B, C, F1 and H) and 63 (31.2%) persons were infected with one of six different circulating recombinant forms (CRFs; 01_AE, 02_AG, 04_cpx, 05_DF, 14_BG, and 36_cpx). We also for the first time identified infection with two different clusters of unique A-like and F-like sub-subtype variants in 12 persons (5.9%) and seven unique recombinant forms (3.5%), including a novel J/C recombinant. While subtype B was the major genotype identified and was more prevalent in MSM and increased between 2000–2005, most non-B subtypes were present in persons ≥45 years old. CRF01_AE was the most common non-B subtype and was higher in women and IDUs relative to other risk groups combined. Our results show that HIV-1 infection in Bulgaria reflects the shifting distribution of genotypes coincident with the changing epidemiology of the HIV-1 epidemic among different risk groups. Our data support increased public health interventions targeting IDUs and MSM. Furthermore, the substantial and increasing HIV-1 genetic heterogeneity, combined with fluctuating infection dynamics, highlights the importance of sustained and expanded surveillance to prevent and control HIV-1 infection in Bulgaria.

Southeastern European Health Network (SEEHN) Communicable Diseases Surveillance: a decade of bridging trust and collaboration

The communicable disease threats and changes that began emerging in south-east Europe in the early 1990s – after a decade of war and while political and health systems region-wide were undergoing dramatic changes – demanded a novel approach to infectious disease surveillance. Specifically, they called for an approach that was focused on cross-border collaboration and aligned with European Union standards and requirements. Thus, the Southeastern European Health network (SEEHN) was established in 2001 as a cooperative effort among the governments of Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Moldova, Montenegro, Romania, Serbia, and the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. In 2002, SEEHN initiated a communicable diseases project aimed at strengthening both national and regional surveillance systems with a focus on cross-border collaboration. Over time, SEEHN has nurtured growth of a regional fabric of SEE experts in communicable diseases surveillance and response who are able to discuss emerging issues and best practices at any time and without being constrained by the rigidity of traditional or existing systems. Main achievements to date include joint preparation of influenza pandemic preparedness plans at both national and regional levels and the introduction of molecular techniques into influenza surveillance laboratories region-wide. Here, we describe the history of the SEEHN communicable disease project; major activities and accomplishments; and future sustainability of the regional infectious disease surveillance network that has emerged and grown over the past decade.

Spatial accessibility and the spread of HIV-1 subtypes and recombinants

OBJECTIVE/DESIGN

The global spread of HIV-1 main group (group M) has resulted in differential distributions of subtypes and recombinants, with the greatest diversity being found in sub-Saharan Africa. The explanations for the current subtype distribution patterns are likely multifactorial, but the promotion of human migrations and movements through transportation link availability and quality, summarized through 'accessibility', have been consistently cited as strong drivers. We sought to address the question of whether accessibility has been a significant factor in HIV-1 spread across mainland Africa through spatial analyses of molecular epidemiology, transport network and land cover data.

METHODS

The distribution of HIV-1 subtypes and recombinants in sub-Saharan Africa for the period 1998-2008 was mapped using molecular epidemiology data at a finer level of detail than ever before. Moreover, hypotheses on the role of distance, road network structure and accessibility in explaining the patterns seen were tested using spatial datasets representing African transport infrastructure, land cover and an accessibility model of landscape travel speed.

RESULTS

Coherent spatial patterns in HIV-1 subtype distributions across the continent exist, and a substantial proportion of the variance in the distribution and diversity pattern seen can be explained by variations in regional spatial accessibility.

CONCLUSION

The study confirms quantitatively the influence of transport infrastructure on HIV-1 spread within Africa, presents an approach for examining potential future impacts of road development projects and, more generally, highlights the importance of accessibility in the spread of communicable diseases.

Phylogeny and phylodinamic of Hepatitis C in Italy

Hepatitis C virus infection (HCV) is one of the most pressing health emergencies in the world with a global prevalence of about 170 million people chronically infected worldwide. In Europe, Italy has the highest HCV prevalence (3 - 4.4%) with peaks of 12.6 - 26% in Southern regions and the major islands. In Italy HCV genotype 1b prevails, and genotype 4 is mainly found in the south of the country where the prevalence is particularly high in regions such as Calabria.

Phylogenetics analysis is a molecular tool widely used to study rapidly-evolving RNA viruses that establish chronic infections such as HCV. Searching the scientific literature, it was found that thirty-nine genetic studies on HCV genotypes have been carried out in Italy between 1997 to 2012 years. However, phylogenetic analysis was performed only in fourteen out of thirty-nine HCV studies (36%) considered. Monitoring the genetic evolution of HCV is an essential step to control the local as well as global HCV epidemic and to develop efficient preventive and therapeutic strategies.

Phylogeographic reconstruction of HIV type 1B in Montenegro and the Balkan region

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is one of the most genetically variable human viruses as it is characterized by high rates of mutation, viral replication, and recombination. Phylodynamics is a powerful means of describing the behavior of an infection as a combination of evolutionary and ecological processes. Only a few studies of HIV-1 molecular epidemiology have so far been carried out in the Balkans. In this study, we used Bayesian methods to reconstruct the phylogeography and phylodynamics of HIV-1B in Montenegro and some other Balkan countries on the basis of pol gene sequences retrieved from a public database. The phylogenetic analysis showed that 43% of the isolates grouped in accordance with their geographic area, whereas the majority were interspersed in the tree, thus confirming the multiple introductions of HIV-1B in the Balkans. The Bayesian phylogeographic analysis suggested that HIV-1B entered the Balkans in the early 1970s probably through Greece and other Mediterranean tourist/travel destinations (such as Slovenia). Other Balkan countries, such as Bulgaria and Serbia, may have played an important role in spreading the infection to the entire Eastern Mediterranean area, and possibly to Northeast Europe. This suggests that the Balkans may have played a role as a "gateway" between Western and Eastern Europe.

Molecular typing of the recently expanding subtype B HIV-1 epidemic in Romania: evidence for local spread among MSMs in Bucharest area

HIV-1 subtype B is predominant in Europe except in some countries from Eastern Europe which are characterized by a high prevalence of non-B subtypes and circulating recombinant forms (CRFs). Romania is a particular case: the HIV-1 epidemic started with subtype F1 which is still the most prevalent. Previous studies have shown an increasing prevalence of subtype B which is the second most frequent one among the newly diagnosed individuals, followed by subtype C and several CRFs as well as unique recombinant forms (URFs). Our objective was to analyze in detail the characteristics (way of dispersal, association with transmission risk groups) of the subtype B infections in Romania by means of phylogenetic analysis. Among all the individuals sampled during 2003-2010, 71 out of 1127 patients (6.3%) have been identified to be infected with subtype B strains. The most frequent route of infection identified in HIV-1 subtype B patients in Romania was MSM transmission (39.6%), followed by the heterosexual route (35.2%). Many of the patients acquired the infection abroad, mainly in Western European countries. Phylogenetic analysis indicated the existence of a local transmission network (monophyletic clade) including 14 patients, mainly MSM living in the Bucharest area. We estimate the origin of the local transmission network that dates at the beginning of the 90s; the introduction of the F1 and C subtypes occurred earlier. The rest of the sequences were intermixed with reference strains sampled across Europe suggesting that single infection were not followed by subsequent dispersal within the local population. Although HIV-1 subtype B epidemic in Romania is recent, there is evidence for local spread among the MSMs, in addition to multiple introductions.

The Use of Bioinformatics for Studying HIV Evolutionary and Epidemiological History in South America

The South American human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) epidemic is driven by several subtypes (B, C, and F1) and circulating and unique recombinant forms derived from those subtypes. Those variants are heterogeneously distributed around the continent in a country-specific manner. Despite some inconsistencies mainly derived from sampling biases and analytical constrains, most of studies carried out in the area agreed in pointing out specificities in the evolutionary dynamics of the circulating HIV-1 lineages. In this paper, we covered the theoretical basis, and the application of bioinformatics methods to reconstruct the HIV spatial-temporal dynamics, unveiling relevant information to understand the origin, geographical dissemination and the current molecular scenario of the HIV epidemic in the continent, particularly in the countries of Southern Cone.

Genetic diversity of HIV type 1 in Montenegro

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) is characterized by high genetic variability due to its high replication rate and the lack of proofreading activity of the reverse transcriptase enzyme. On the basis of phylogenetic analysis performed on numerous isolates from all over the world, HIV-1 is subdivided into types, subtypes, subsubtypes, circulating recombinant forms, and unique recombinant forms. No data are currently available about the circulation of HIV-1 types in Montenegro. Here, we describe the genetic variability of HIV-1 strains identified in plasma samples of patients from Montenegro. Phylogenetic analysis on 32 HIV-1 sequences was carried out. The prevalent circulating HIV-1 subtype is B. The strains were interspersed within the tree. Two main clades (I and II) may suggest independent introductions of HIV-1 subtype B into Montenegro, although other epidemiological evidence will be needed to assume a small number of introductions. No obvious evidence of clustering by residence, age, or sex was found (data not shown). Nelfinavir resistance was found, though lopinavir is the only PI administered. Continuous monitoring of HIV-1-infected individuals is crucial to a better understand of the epidemiology of the B subtype in Montenegro.

High-resolution phylogenetics and phylogeography of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 subtype C epidemic in South America

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 subtype C (HIV-1C) represents 30-65% of HIV infections in southern Brazil, and isolated cases of HIV-1C infection have also been reported in Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay and Venezuela. Phylogenetic studies have suggested that the Brazilian subtype C epidemic was initiated by the introduction of closely related strains. Nevertheless, because of sampling limitations, the point of entry and the timing of subtype C introduction into Brazil, as well as the origin of the founder lineage, remain controversial. The present study investigated the origin, spread and phylogeography of HIV-1C in South America. Phylogenetic analysis showed a well-supported monophyletic clade including all available strains from Brazil, Uruguay and Argentina. Only one lineage from Venezuela was unrelated to the epidemic involving the other three countries. Molecular clock and likelihood mapping analysis showed that HIV-1C introduction in Brazil dated back to the period 1960-1970, much earlier than previously thought, and was followed by a nearly simultaneous star-like outburst of viral lineages, indicating a subsequent rapid spread. Phylogeographic patterns suggested Paraná or Rio Grande do Sul as the possible entrance points of subtype C and an asymmetrical gene flow from Paraná to Sao Paulo, Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul, as well as from Rio Grande do Sul to Sao Paulo fostered by the strong inter-connectivity between population centres in southern Brazil. The study illustrates how coupling phylogeography inference with geographical information system data is critical to understand the origin and dissemination of viral pathogens and potentially predict their future spread.

An evolutionary model-based algorithm for accurate phylogenetic breakpoint mapping and subtype prediction in HIV-1

Genetically diverse pathogens (such as Human Immunodeficiency virus type 1, HIV-1) are frequently stratified into phylogenetically or immunologically defined subtypes for classification purposes. Computational identification of such subtypes is helpful in surveillance, epidemiological analysis and detection of novel variants, e.g., circulating recombinant forms in HIV-1. A number of conceptually and technically different techniques have been proposed for determining the subtype of a query sequence, but there is not a universally optimal approach. We present a model-based phylogenetic method for automatically subtyping an HIV-1 (or other viral or bacterial) sequence, mapping the location of breakpoints and assigning parental sequences in recombinant strains as well as computing confidence levels for the inferred quantities. Our Subtype Classification Using Evolutionary ALgorithms (SCUEAL) procedure is shown to perform very well in a variety of simulation scenarios, runs in parallel when multiple sequences are being screened, and matches or exceeds the performance of existing approaches on typical empirical cases. We applied SCUEAL to all available polymerase (pol) sequences from two large databases, the Stanford Drug Resistance database and the UK HIV Drug Resistance Database. Comparing with subtypes which had previously been assigned revealed that a minor but substantial (≈5%) fraction of pure subtype sequences may in fact be within- or inter-subtype recombinants. A free implementation of SCUEAL is provided as a module for the HyPhy package and the Datamonkey web server. Our method is especially useful when an accurate automatic classification of an unknown strain is desired, and is positioned to complement and extend faster but less accurate methods. Given the increasingly frequent use of HIV subtype information in studies focusing on the effect of subtype on treatment, clinical outcome, pathogenicity and vaccine design, the importance of accurate, robust and extensible subtyping procedures is clear.

There are nine different subtypes of the main group of HIV-1, each originating as a distinct subepidemic of HIV-1. The distribution of subtypes is often unique to a given geographic region of the world and constitutes a useful epidemiological and surveillance resource. The effects of viral subtype on disease progression, treatment outcome and vaccine design are being actively researched, and the importance of accurate subtyping procedures is clear. In HIV-1, subtype assignment is complicated by frequent recombination among co-circulating strains, creating new genetic mosaics or recombinant forms: 43 have been characterized to date, and many more likely exist. We present an automated phylogenetic method (SCUEAL) to accurately characterize both simple and complex HIV-1 mosaics. Using computer simulations and biological data we demonstrate that SCUEAL performs very well under various conditions, especially when some of the existing classification procedures fail. Furthermore, we show that a small, but noticeable proportion of subtype characterization stored in public databases may be incomplete or incorrect. The computational technique introduced here should provide a much more accurate characterization of HIV-1 strains, especially novel recombinants, and lead to new insights into molecular history, epidemiology and geographical distribution of the virus.

Towards an understanding of the migration of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus

Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is a lethal disease caused by Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV). It is one of the most widespread medically significant tick-borne pathogens, with a distribution that coincides well with the geographical occurrence of its tick vector, Hyalomma marginatum marginatum. Sporadic outbreaks of CCHF have previously been recognized in Asia, Africa, the Middle East and Europe but, in the 21st century, outbreaks have become more frequent in former Yugoslavia, Turkey and Iran. It has been suggested that CCHFV is a migrating pathogen, but it is not clear to what extent. We have, for the first time, analysed the worldwide migration pattern of CCHFV. Our results showed that Turkey may be a donor in Europe, towards both the east and the west, while the United Arab Emirates acted as a donor in the Middle East, and China was found to be the origin for genotype 2. Finally, we showed that migration of CCHFV was unrestricted between Iran and Pakistan. Considering the distribution and coincidence of the tick vector with CCHFV and CCHF, and the fact that the tick vector is present in western Europe, future outbreaks may extend to include hitherto-naïve areas, suggesting that increased surveillance and geographical mapping of this lethal pathogen are needed.

A standardized framework for accurate, high-throughput genotyping of recombinant and non-recombinant viral sequences

Human immunodeficiency virus type-1 (HIV-1), hepatitis B and C and other rapidly evolving viruses are characterized by extremely high levels of genetic diversity. To facilitate diagnosis and the development of prevention and treatment strategies that efficiently target the diversity of these viruses, and other pathogens such as human T-lymphotropic virus type-1 (HTLV-1), human herpes virus type-8 (HHV8) and human papillomavirus (HPV), we developed a rapid high-throughput-genotyping system. The method involves the alignment of a query sequence with a carefully selected set of pre-defined reference strains, followed by phylogenetic analysis of multiple overlapping segments of the alignment using a sliding window. Each segment of the query sequence is assigned the genotype and sub-genotype of the reference strain with the highest bootstrap (>70%) and bootscanning (>90%) scores. Results from all windows are combined and displayed graphically using color-coded genotypes. The new Virus-Genotyping Tools provide accurate classification of recombinant and non-recombinant viruses and are currently being assessed for their diagnostic utility. They have incorporated into several HIV drug resistance algorithms including the Stanford (http://hivdb.stanford.edu) and two European databases (http://www.umcutrecht.nl/subsite/spread-programme/ and http://www.hivrdb.org.uk/) and have been successfully used to genotype a large number of sequences in these and other databases. The tools are a PHP/JAVA web application and are freely accessible on a number of servers including: http://bioafrica.mrc.ac.za/rega-genotype/html/, http://lasp.cpqgm.fiocruz.br/virus-genotype/html/, http://jose.med.kuleuven.be/genotypetool/html/.

Characterization of drug-resistance mutations in HIV type 1 isolates from drug-naive and ARV-treated patients in Bulgaria

Little information is available about the prevalence of resistance mutations to reverse transcriptase (RT) and protease (PR) inhibitors of HIV-1, after the introduction of antiretroviral treatment in Bulgaria. To fill this gap, we analyzed 80 plasma samples from HIV-1-infected Bulgarian patients, 22 naive at antiretroviral treatment (ARV) and 58 ARV experienced. The subtypes B and A resulted in the two most prevalent (41 patients and 18 patients, respectively). The proportion of subtype B among naive and treated patients was similar in each group (57% vs. 47%, p = 0.62), while a major proportion of subtypes A was present in drug-naive patients rather than in treated patients [8/22 (36.4%) vs. 10/58 (17.2%), p = 0.08]. Two (9.1%) naive patients and 40 (70.1%) drug-experienced patients had viruses carrying at least one mutation conferring resistance to ARV drugs. Of 57 patients having experience with nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTI), 32 (56.1%) had NRTI resistance mutations; 8/14 (57.2%) patients having experience with non-NRTI (NNRTI) had viruses carrying NNRTI resistance mutations; and 21/46 (45.7%) patients having experience with protease inhibitors (PI) had PI resistance mutations. The commonest resistance mutations resulted in the NRTI mutation M184V (42.1%) and the PI mutation L90M (24.1%). In conclusion, due to the detection of the substantial transmission of resistant variants to newly infected individuals, continuous surveillance is required, since greater access to highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) will be expected in Bulgaria. Furthermore, surveillance of PR and RT sequences is also convenient to monitor the introduction of nonsubtype B HIV-1 strains in Bulgaria.