From Alpha to Zeta: Identifying Variants and Subtypes of SARS-CoV-2 Via Clustering

Early detection of emerging viral variants through analysis of community structure of coordinated substitution networks

The emergence of viral variants with altered phenotypes is a public health challenge underscoring the need for advanced evolutionary forecasting methods. Given extensive epistatic interactions within viral genomes and known viral evolutionary history, efficient genomic surveillance necessitates early detection of emerging viral haplotypes rather than commonly targeted single mutations. Haplotype inference, however, is a significantly more challenging problem precluding the use of traditional approaches. Here, using SARS-CoV-2 evolutionary dynamics as a case study, we show that emerging haplotypes with altered transmissibility can be linked to dense communities in coordinated substitution networks, which become discernible significantly earlier than the haplotypes become prevalent. From these insights, we develop a computational framework for inference of viral variants and validate it by successful early detection of known SARS-CoV-2 strains. Our methodology offers greater scalability than phylogenetic lineage tracing and can be applied to any rapidly evolving pathogen with adequate genomic surveillance data.

Reconstruction of Viral Variants via Monte Carlo Clustering

Identifying viral variants through clustering is essential for understanding the composition and structure of viral populations within and between hosts, which play a crucial role in disease progression and epidemic spread. This article proposes and validates novel Monte Carlo (MC) methods for clustering aligned viral sequences by minimizing either entropy or Hamming distance from consensuses. We validate these methods on four benchmarks: two SARS-CoV-2 interhost data sets and two HIV intrahost data sets. A parallelized version of our tool is scalable to very large data sets. We show that both entropy and Hamming distance-based MC clusterings discern the meaningful information from sequencing data. The proposed clustering methods consistently converge to similar clusterings across different runs. Finally, we show that MC clustering improves reconstruction of intrahost viral population from sequencing data.

Dynamic Epidemiological Networks: A Data Representation Framework for Modeling and Tracking of SARS-CoV-2 Variants

The large-scale real-time sequencing of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) genomes has allowed for rapid identification of concerning variants through phylogenetic analysis. However, the nature of phylogenetic reconstruction is typically static, in that the relationships between taxonomic units, once defined, are not subject to alterations. Furthermore, most phylogenetic methods are intrinsically batch mode in nature, requiring the presence of the entire data set. Finally, the emphasis of phylogenetics is on relating taxonomical units. These characteristics complicate the application of classical phylogenetics methods to represent relationships in molecular data collected from rapidly evolving strains of an etiological agent, such as SARS-CoV-2, since the molecular landscape is updated continuously as samples are collected. In such settings, variant definitions are subject to epistemological constraints and may change as data accumulate. Furthermore, representing within-variant molecular relationships may be as important as representing between variant relationships. This article describes a novel data representation framework called dynamic epidemiological networks (DENs) along with algorithms that underpin its construction to address these issues. The proposed representation is applied to study the molecular development underlying the spread of the COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) pandemic in two countries: Israel and Portugal spanning a 2-year period from February 2020 to April 2022. The results demonstrate how this framework could be used to provide a multiscale representation of the data by capturing molecular relationships between samples as well as those between variants, automatically identifying the emergence of high frequency variants (lineages), including variants of concern such as Alpha and Delta, and tracking their growth. Additionally, we show how analyzing the evolution of the DEN can help identify changes in the viral population that could not be readily inferred from phylogenetic analysis.

AutoCoV: tracking the early spread of COVID-19 in terms of the spatial and temporal patterns from embedding space by K-mer based deep learning

Background

The widely spreading coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has three major spreading properties: pathogenic mutations, spatial, and temporal propagation patterns. We know the spread of the virus geographically and temporally in terms of statistics, i.e., the number of patients. However, we are yet to understand the spread at the level of individual patients. As of March 2021, COVID-19 is wide-spread all over the world with new genetic variants. One important question is to track the early spreading patterns of COVID-19 until the virus has got spread all over the world.

Results

In this work, we proposed AutoCoV, a deep learning method with multiple loss object, that can track the early spread of COVID-19 in terms of spatial and temporal patterns until the disease is fully spread over the world in July 2020. Performances in learning spatial or temporal patterns were measured with two clustering measures and one classification measure. For annotated SARS-CoV-2 sequences from the National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI), AutoCoV outperformed seven baseline methods in our experiments for learning either spatial or temporal patterns. For spatial patterns, AutoCoV had at least 1.7-fold higher clustering performances and an F1 score of 88.1%. For temporal patterns, AutoCoV had at least 1.6-fold higher clustering performances and an F1 score of 76.1%. Furthermore, AutoCoV demonstrated the robustness of the embedding space with an independent dataset, Global Initiative for Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID).

Conclusions

In summary, AutoCoV learns geographic and temporal spreading patterns successfully in experiments on NCBI and GISAID datasets and is the first of its kind that learns virus spreading patterns from the genome sequences, to the best of our knowledge. We expect that this type of embedding method will be helpful in characterizing fast-evolving pandemics.

PWM2Vec: An Efficient Embedding Approach for Viral Host Specification from Coronavirus Spike Sequences

Simple Summary

The family of coronaviruses comprises a diverse set of strains and variants which cause diseases from the common cold to COVID-19. Moreover, they infect a wide array of hosts from bats, camels, birds, to humans. Studying coronaviruses through the lens of host specificity provides a unique perspective to understanding the evolution, diversity and dynamics of this family. In particular, this can reveal groups of different hosts infected by similar strains, giving clues on strains which were more likely to have evolved to jump from one host to another. In this work, we frame host specificity as a classification task, in designing a very compact numerical representation of the spike sequences of different coronaviruses. Based on this numerical representation, classification methods are able to detect the target host with high accuracy. Such an approach can used to efficiently scale to large volumes of sequences, in order to unveil trends in the host specificity of different coronavirus strains.

Abstract

The study of host specificity has important connections to the question about the origin of SARS-CoV-2 in humans which led to the COVID-19 pandemic—an important open question. There are speculations that bats are a possible origin. Likewise, there are many closely related (corona)viruses, such as SARS, which was found to be transmitted through civets. The study of the different hosts which can be potential carriers and transmitters of deadly viruses to humans is crucial to understanding, mitigating, and preventing current and future pandemics. In coronaviruses, the surface (S) protein, or spike protein, is important in determining host specificity, since it is the point of contact between the virus and the host cell membrane. In this paper, we classify the hosts of over five thousand coronaviruses from their spike protein sequences, segregating them into clusters of distinct hosts among birds, bats, camels, swine, humans, and weasels, to name a few. We propose a feature embedding based on the well-known position weight matrix (PWM), which we call PWM2Vec, and we use it to generate feature vectors from the spike protein sequences of these coronaviruses. While our embedding is inspired by the success of PWMs in biological applications, such as determining protein function and identifying transcription factor binding sites, we are the first (to the best of our knowledge) to use PWMs from viral sequences to generate fixed-length feature vector representations, and use them in the context of host classification. The results on real world data show that when using PWM2Vec, machine learning classifiers are able to perform comparably to the baseline models in terms of predictive performance and runtime—in some cases, the performance is better. We also measure the importance of different amino acids using information gain to show the amino acids which are important for predicting the host of a given coronavirus. Finally, we perform some statistical analyses on these results to show that our embedding is more compact than the embeddings of the baseline models.

Robust Representation and Efficient Feature Selection Allows for Effective Clustering of SARS-CoV-2 Variants

The widespread availability of large amounts of genomic data on the SARS-CoV-2 virus, as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, has created an opportunity for researchers to analyze the disease at a level of detail, unlike any virus before it. On the one hand, this will help biologists, policymakers, and other authorities to make timely and appropriate decisions to control the spread of the coronavirus. On the other hand, such studies will help to more effectively deal with any possible future pandemic. Since the SARS-CoV-2 virus contains different variants, each of them having different mutations, performing any analysis on such data becomes a difficult task, given the size of the data. It is well known that much of the variation in the SARS-CoV-2 genome happens disproportionately in the spike region of the genome sequence—the relatively short region which codes for the spike protein(s). In this paper, we propose a robust feature-vector representation of biological sequences that, when combined with the appropriate feature selection method, allows different downstream clustering approaches to perform well on a variety of different measures. We use such proposed approach with an array of clustering techniques to cluster spike protein sequences in order to study the behavior of different known variants that are increasing at a very high rate throughout the world. We use a k-mers based approach first to generate a fixed-length feature vector representation of the spike sequences. We then show that we can efficiently and effectively cluster the spike sequences based on the different variants with the appropriate feature selection. Using a publicly available set of SARS-CoV-2 spike sequences, we perform clustering of these sequences using both hard and soft clustering methods and show that, with our feature selection methods, we can achieve higher F1 scores for the clusters and also better clustering quality metrics compared to baselines.