Estimated demand for women's health services by 2020

Supply of obstetrician-gynecologists and gynecologic oncologists to the US Medicare population: a state-by-state analysis

BACKGROUND

The supply of obstetrician-gynecologists and gynecologic oncologists across the United States has been described. However, these studies focused on reproductive-age patients and did not assess the growing demand for services to the advanced-age female population.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to evaluate the supply of obstetrician-gynecologists and gynecologic oncologists who serve the US Medicare population per 100,000 female Medicare beneficiaries, over time and by state and region.

STUDY DESIGN

The supply of obstetrician-gynecologists and gynecologic oncologists was extracted from the Physician and Other Supplier Public Use File database of Medicare Part B claims submitted to the US Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. Data were only available from 2012 to 2019. The supply of providers was divided by the number of original female Medicare beneficiaries obtained from the Kaiser Family Foundation; all values reported are providers per 100,000 female beneficiaries by state. Trends over time were assessed as the difference in provider-to-beneficiary ratio and the percentage change from 2012 to 2019. All data were collected in 2021. All analyses were performed with SAS, version 9.4. This study was exempt from institutional review board approval.

RESULTS

In 2019, the average number of obstetrician-gynecologists per 100,000 female beneficiaries across all states was 121.32 (standard deviation±33.03). The 3 states with the highest obstetrician-gynecologist-to-beneficiary ratio were the District of Columbia (268.85), Connecticut (204.62), and Minnesota (171.60), and the 3 states with the lowest were Montana (78.37), West Virginia (82.28), and Iowa (83.92). The average number of gynecologic oncologists was 4.48 (standard deviation±2.08). The 3 states with the highest gynecologic oncologist-to-beneficiary ratio were the District of Columbia (11.30), Rhode Island (10.58), and Connecticut (9.24), and the 3 states with the lowest were Kansas (0.82), Vermont (1.41), and Mississippi (1.47). The number of obstetrician-gynecologists per 100,000 female beneficiaries decreased nationally by 8.4% from 2012 to 2019; the difference in provider-to-beneficiary ratio from 2012 to 2019 ranged from +29.97 (CT) to -82.62 (AK). Regionally, the Northeast had the smallest decrease in the number of obstetrician-gynecologists per 100,000 female beneficiaries (-3.8%) and the West had the largest (-18.2%). The number of gynecologic oncologists per 100,000 female beneficiaries increased by 7.0% nationally during the study period; this difference ranged from +8.96 (DC) to -3.39 (SD). Overall, the West had the smallest increase (4.7%) and the Midwest had the largest (15.4%).

CONCLUSION

There is wide geographic variation in the supply and growth rate of obstetrician-gynecologists and gynecologic oncologists for the female Medicare population. This analysis provides insight into areas of the country where the supply of obstetrician-gynecologists and gynecologic oncologists may not meet current and future demand. The national decrease in the number of obstetrician-gynecologists is alarming, especially because population projections estimate that the proportion of elderly female patients will grow. Future work is needed to determine why fewer providers are available to see Medicare patients and what minimum provider-to-enrollee ratios are needed for gynecologic and cancer care. Once such ratios are established, our results can help determine whether specific states and regions are meeting demand. Additional research is needed to assess the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the supply of women's health providers.

PrEP service delivery preferences of black Cis-gender women living in the Southern United States

To assess PrEP service delivery preferences among Black cis-gender women living in urban and rural settings in Alabama, we conducted a cross-sectional discrete choice experiment survey. Discrete choice experiments included five attributes. Hierarchical Bayes (HB) modeling and latent class analyses (LCA) were used to evaluate attribute preferences. Among 795 Black cis-gender HIV-negative women, almost two-thirds lived in urban settings and reported having at least some college; about a third reported a household income less than $25,000 annually; and reported willingness to use PrEP. Respondents placed the greatest importance on PrEP medication formulation and healthcare facility. LCA showed the group with the highest rural proportion preferred for on-line visits. Black women in the Deep South had distinct preferences regarding PrEP service delivery. These findings can inform tailored interventions to improve PrEP uptake among Black cis-gender women across diverse settings in the South.

Mapping HIV-related services for women in Eastern Canada: A qualitative study

BACKGROUND

Geographic health disparities have been well described in parts of Canada; however, little is known about the experiences of women living with HIV in the Maritime Provinces. This article focuses on the complex health system women living with HIV navigate geographically to access care in New Brunswick and Nova Scotia, Canada.

METHOD

This study includes interviews with 10 women living with HIV and 39 community-based workers whose organizations provide services to this group of women in New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. Purposive sampling was used to recruit both women living with HIV and community workers. Interviews were recorded and transcribed into a Microsoft word document. Transcripts were imported into NVivo 11 for thematic analyses and used to map the services women with HIV were accessing in their communities in ArcGIS 10.2 for Windows.

RESULTS

The study found that there are a number of barriers women with HIV face in the Maritime Provinces, including the low number of specialist physicians, long travel distances to major urban centers for care, and the loss of HIV-specific supports and resources. In response to these difficulties, community-based organizations are leading efforts in their communities to increase outreach programs and the number of available peer workers to improve the health outcomes of women living with HIV. Furthermore, it showed that women living with HIV and community workers were interested in creating a women-centered HIV care system in the Maritime Provinces, but were uncertain how to move forward with this initiative.

CONCLUSION

There is a need for women-centered HIV services. This study proposes streamlining the healthcare pathway and decreasing obstacles to increase women's access to care in the Maritime Provinces.

Variation in Restrictive Abortion Policies and Adverse Birth Outcomes in the United States from 2005 to 2015

BACKGROUND

Since 2011, U.S. states have enacted more than 400 policies restricting abortion access. As structural determinants, abortion policies have the potential to influence maternal and child health access, outcomes, and equity through multiple mechanisms. Limited research has examined their implications for birth outcomes.

METHODS

We created a state-level abortion restrictiveness index composed of 18 restrictive abortion policies and evaluated the association between this index and individual-level probabilities of preterm birth (PTB) and low birthweight (LBW) within the United States and by Census Region, using data from the 2005-2015 National Center for Health Statistics Period Linked Live Birth-Infant Death Files. We used logistic multivariable regression modeling, adjusting for individual- and state-level factors and state and year fixed effects.

RESULTS

Among 2,500,000 live births, 269,253 (12.0%) were PTBs and 182,960 (8.1%) were LBW. On average from 2005 to 2015, states had approximately seven restrictive abortion policies enacted, with more policies enacted in the Midwest and South. Nationally, relationships between state restrictiveness indices and adverse birth outcomes were insignificant. Regional analyses revealed that a 1-SD increase in a state's restrictiveness index was associated with a 2% increase in PTB in the Midwest (marginal effect [ME], 0.25; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.04-0.45; p < .01), a 15% increase in LBW in the Northeast (ME, 1.24; 95% CI, 0.12-2.35; p < .05), and a 2% increase in LBW in the West (ME, 0.12; 95% CI, 0.01-0.25; p < .05).

CONCLUSION

Variation in restrictive abortion policy environments may have downstream implications for birth outcomes, and increases in abortion restrictions were associated with adverse birth outcomes in three out of four Census Regions.

OB Nest randomized controlled trial: a cost comparison of reduced visit compared to traditional prenatal care

Background

Traditional prenatal care includes up to 13 in person office visits, and the cost of this care is not well-described. Alternative models are being explored to better meet the needs of patients and providers. OB Nest is a telemedicine-enhanced program with a reduced frequency of in-person prenatal visits. The cost implications of connected care services added to prenatal care packages are unclear.

Methods

Using data from the OB Nest randomized, controlled trial we analyzed the provider and staff time associated with prenatal care in the traditional and OB Nest models. Fewer visits were required for OB Nest, but given the compensatory increase in connected care activity and supplies, the actual cost difference is not known. Nursing and provider staff time was prospectively recorded for all patients enrolled in the OB Nest clinical trial. Published 2015 national wages for healthcare workers were used to calculate the actual labor cost of providing either traditional or OB Nest prenatal care in 2015 US dollars. Overhead expenses and opportunity costs were not considered.

Results

Total provider cost was decreased caring for the OB Nest participants, but nursing cost was increased. OB Nest care required an average of 160.8 (+/− 45.0) minutes provider time and 237 (+/− 25.1) minutes nursing time, compared to 215.0 (+/− 71.6) and 99.6 (+/− 29.7) minutes for traditional prenatal care (P < 0.01). This translated into decreased provider cost and increased nursing cost (P < 0.01). Supply costs increased, travel costs declined, and overhead costs declined in the OB Nest model.

Conclusions

In this trial, labor cost for OB Nest prenatal care was 34% higher than for traditional prenatal care. The increased cost is largely attributable to additional nursing connected care time, and in some practice settings may be offset by decreased overhead costs and increased provider billing opportunities. Future efforts will be focused on development of digital solutions for some routine nursing tasks to decrease the overall cost of the model.

Trial registrations

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02082275.

Obstetrician-Gynecologists in General Practice in New Mexico: A Comparison Between Rural and Metropolitan Counties

Objective: About one-half of all U.S. counties lack obstetrician–gynecologist (ob-gyns) physicians especially in rural areas. The objective of this study was to use experience in our state to identify demographic and practice characteristics distinguishing ob-gyns in general practice (general ob-gyns) in rural and metropolitan settings.

Materials and Methods: This retrospective observational study used self-reported responses by physicians to a mandated survey about demographics and practice patterns at the time of New Mexico medical relicensing. Included in the study were all general ob-gyns in 2016 and 2017. Information about subspecialist ob-gyns and residents who graduated that year was obtained from the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists and the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education from 2016 to 2019.

Results: Nearly 1 in 3 (84 of 273, 30.8%) general ob-gyns practiced in a rural county. Those in rural settings tended to be older (p = 0.02) and male (p = 0.04). Most had practices in both obstetrics and gynecology. Compared with those in metropolitan counties, general ob-gyns in rural counties practiced in smaller groups (p = 0.0003) and worked 40 hours or more weekly (p = 0.0003). All subspecialists practiced in the most populous metropolitan county. No recent residency graduate practiced rurally in New Mexico.

Conclusions: General ob-gyns in New Mexico's rural counties practiced in smaller groups and for longer work hours. Rural ob-gyns tended to be older and male.

Diagnosis and referral flow in the single health system for climacteric women

OBJECTIVE

The association between gynecological diagnoses and their distribution across healthcare sectors benefits health promotion and the identification of topics for continued education of gynecological care. This study aimed to identify healthcare diagnoses and referral flow in climacteric women.

METHODS

This is a cross-sectional study conducted at the Women's Health Clinic of the University Hospital, University of São Paulo, with a reference to gynecology and training for Residents of Family and Community Medicine, between 2017 and 2018. The medical records of 242 women whose sociodemographic and clinical information, gynecological diagnoses, and distribution of healthcare services (primary, secondary, and tertiary) had been processed were collected. Statistical analysis included the chi-square test and odds ratio.

RESULTS

Smoking (OR = 2.27, 95% CI 1.05-4.89; p = 0.035) was associated with the referral of climacteric women to higher complexity services. Considering the distribution of non-oncological diagnoses in climacteric patients, the chance of women being referred to medium- and high-complexity health services presented a 2-fold increase in cases of breast diseases, a 2.35-fold increase in cases of noninflammatory disorders of the female genital tract, and a 3-fold increase in cases of inflammatory diseases of the pelvic organs.

CONCLUSION

Climacteric women aged over 55 years, postmenopausal women, and smoking women were most frequently referred to medium- and high-complexity outpatient surgery.

"They're Doing Their Job": Women's Acceptance of Emergency Department Contraception Counseling

STUDY OBJECTIVE

We explore reproductive-aged women's acceptance of contraception counseling in the emergency department (ED).

METHODS

This study is phase 1 of an exploratory sequential mixed methods study. We purposively interviewed 31 participants with the following criteria: black, white, or Latina race/ethnicity; nonpregnant; aged 15 to 44 years; receiving nonemergency care; not using highly effective contraception; and did not intend to become pregnant. We conducted semistructured interviews with a piloted interview guide until reaching thematic saturation. We coded transcripts with an iteratively developed codebook, maintaining intercoder agreement greater than 80%. Qualitative acceptance of ED contraception counseling was grouped into 3 categories: acceptable, unacceptable, and equivocal. We conducted a thematic text analysis to assess themes expressing support and concern for ED contraception counseling. Qualitative findings were stratified by age, race, and frequency of ED use. Using components of grounded theory, we developed a conceptual model.

RESULTS

Most participants (81%) accepted ED contraception counseling. Themes expressing support and concern for ED contraception counseling included opportunity to address women's unmet contraception needs, contraception is within the scope of ED practice, the ED is a convenient setting with competent providers, contraception is a sensitive topic, and the ED may be an inappropriate setting for some women. Latina participants had lower acceptance of ED contraception counseling. Dominant subthemes varied slightly by race, age, and frequency of ED use.

CONCLUSION

Diverse women had high acceptance of contraception counseling in the ED. Perspectives expressing both support and concern in regard to ED contraception counseling were explored in detail.

Inequalities in the use of gynecological visits and preventive services for breast and cervical cancer in Roma women in Spain

OBJECTIVES

The Roma population in Spain makes up about two percent of the population and has worse health indicators than the general population. We analyzed both populations in 2006 and 2014 to discover whether there are differences in terms of gynecological visits and preventive services for breast and cervical cancer in Spain.

METHODS

Cross-sectional study is based on the Spanish National Health Survey (SNHS) of 2006 and 2012 and the National Health Survey of the Roma Population (NHSRP) of 2006 and 2014.

RESULTS

Roma women used gynecological visits less than the general population in 2006 (ORa 0.5 [0.4; 0.6] and in 2014 (ORa 0.2 [0.2; 0.3)]. In addition, use of the mammogram was lower in Roma women (ORa 0.7 [0.6; 0.8]), especially in the ages of the screening tests, and they had lower probability of receiving cervical examinations in 2006 (ORa 0.5 [0.4; 0.6]) and in 2014 (ORa 0.7 [0.6; 0.9]).

CONCLUSIONS

This study shows that the inequality gap in gynecological visits and preventive services for breast and cervical cancer in Roma women has persisted during the years studied (2006 and 2014), despite Spanish prevention policies.

Women's Health Curricula in Internal Medicine Residency Programs: A Scoping Review

Background: Despite national efforts to expand women's health education, internal medicine (IM) residents remain unprepared to provide comprehensive care to women. The objectives of this scoping review are to provide an overview of published women's health curricula in IM residency programs and to identify potential areas for improvement. Materials and Methods: Studies were identified using PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, Scopus, Education Resources Information Center (ERIC), Web of Science, and MedEdPORTAL. Inclusion criteria included the following: (1) women's health as defined by the authors (2) description of a curriculum (3) designed for IM residents (4) based in North America, and (5) published between 1998 and 2018. Data abstracted included content, educational and assessment methods, and quality. Descriptive analysis was used to compare data. Results: Sixteen articles met the inclusion criteria. The most common women's health topics were intimate partner violence (31%) and menopause (31%). Twelve curricula (75%) were implemented in the outpatient setting. Of the teaching methods, didactics (69%) and in-clinic teaching (44%) were most commonly used. All studies that assessed attitudes, knowledge, and/or behavior showed an improvement post-intervention. No studies evaluated patient outcomes. Conclusion: To our knowledge, this is the first review summarizing published women's health curricula in IM residency. There were a limited number of published articles describing women's health curricula. Although content varied, the curricula were effective in improving attitudes, knowledge, and/or behavior with regard to women's health topics. We encourage IM residency programs to develop and disseminate women's health curricula to inform future improvements and advancements in women's health education.

Women's Health Outpatient Care Teams: Focus on Advanced Practice Providers

Team-based care in the outpatient women's health setting has the potential to help alleviate the demand for women's health care providers and to deliver improved quality of care to the growing population of US women. Although teamwork is necessary in the current health care system, most of the current obstetrics and gynecology and advanced practice provider (APP) workforce were not trained for collaborative practice. Core competencies for building an effective outpatient women's health care team are explained and current evidence regarding the specific role of APPs in women's health care is reviewed.

Referral gynecological ambulatory clinic: principal diagnosis and distribution in health services

BACKGROUND

The association between gynecological diagnoses and their distribution in the health sectors provides benefits in the field of women's health promotion and in medical and interdisciplinary education, along with rationalization according to level of care complexity. Thus, the objective is analyze the clinical-demographic characteristics, main diagnoses in gynecological ambulatory care, and their distribution in health services.

METHOD

This is a research project of retrospective audit study design with a chart review of data from 428 women treated at University Ambulatory Clinic of Women's Health, the facility in gynecology and training for Family and Community Medical Residents, São Paulo, Brazil, from 2012 to 2014. Clinical and demographic information, gynecological diagnoses (International Classification of Diseases), and distribution of health services (primary, secondary, and tertiary) were described.

RESULTS

The female patients present non-inflammatory disorders of the female genital tract (81.07%, n = 347) and diseases of the urinary system (22.66%, n = 97) among the gynecological diagnoses. The chances of having benign breast disease and non-inflammatory disorders of the female genital tract during the reproductive period corresponds to being 3.61 (CI 1.00-16.29) and 2.56 times (CI 1.58-4.16) higher, respectively, than during the non-reproductive period. The non-inflammatory disorders of the female genital tract (93.33%, n = 28) are most related to the tertiary sector. The distribution in health services was the following: 71.30% (n = 305) in the primary sector, 21.70% (n = 93) in the secondary sector and 7% (n = 30) in the tertiary sector.

CONCLUSION

The studied women presented non-inflammatory disorders of the female genital tract and diseases of the urinary system as determined by gynecological diagnoses. Low-assistance complexity followed in most cases.

The Relationship Between the Supply of Primary Care Physicians and Measures of Breast Health Service Use

BACKGROUND

To investigate whether women are more likely to report receipt of a mammography recommendation from a doctor or mammography use if they reside in primary care service areas (PCSAs) having a greater number of clinically active primary care physicians.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The analysis used a nationally representative sample of women, aged 40 years and above (n = 10,706 unweighted respondents), extracted from the 2005 National Health Interview Survey. The restricted geocoded addresses of the respondents were linked to PCSA data on physician density at a secure research data center. Multivariable logistic regression was used to determine whether, after adjustment, specific measures of primary care providers (e.g., the number of obstetricians and gynecologists [Ob-GyNs] per 10,000 population) were associated with either recommendation receipt or mammography use.

RESULTS

After adjusting for other factors, a one-unit increase in the PCSA number of Ob-GyNs per 10,000 population increased the odds of mammography recommendation receipt by 9% and the odds of mammography use by 9%. The ratio of international medical graduate Ob-GyNs to US-trained Ob-GyNs in a PCSA was negatively associated with mammography use.

CONCLUSION

The results from this nationwide study underscore the importance of using physician density measures estimated from within bounded medical markets, where women reside and actually seek preventive breast health services. Results support the hypothesis that PCSA physician supply is independently associated with both mammography recommendation receipt and mammography utilization.

Reducing health disparities for women through use of the medical home model

BACKGROUND

Healthcare services can be difficult to access, particularly for low-income or underinsured women. One way of overcoming the barriers to quality, patient-centered care is through the use of the Medical Home Model (MHM). The MHM is a cost-effective approach to care that improves patient outcomes and improves access.

AIM

The purpose of this article is to discuss barriers to healthcare, with an emphasis on reducing healthcare disparities for women.

METHOD

Extant, contemporary literature has been reviewed and synthesized to develop this theoretical paper on the benefits of using the MHM to reduce disparities in the provision of healthcare for women.

CONCLUSIONS

The MHM provides an example of how healthcare can be provided in a more coordinated and effective manner. Extension of this model into the area of women's health may be one way to reduce barriers to quality, accessible care for women.

Establishing Consensus on Residency Education in Women's Health

BACKGROUND

Internal medicine residents are expected to be able to provide gender-specific care. The objective of this study was to develop a consensus list of core topics and procedural skills in women's health to allow residency program directors to prioritize and standardize educational efforts in women's health.

METHODS

We conducted a two-round Delphi of women's health experts. Participants were given a list of topics and asked to: (1) rank each topic based on how important they felt each topic was for internal medicine residents to be proficient in upon graduation, and (2) identify which topics were critical for a women's health curriculum. Mean importance ratings for all topics and mean agreement ratings for the critical topics were calculated. The list of critical topics mirrored the list of important topics; therefore, our consensus list included any topic that received a mean importance rating of ≥4.

RESULTS

Of the 41 experts invited to participate, 46% (19) completed the first round with 100% (19/19) completing the second round. The majority (62.5%, n = 35) of topics received an importance rating of ≥4. The highest-ranking topics included cervical cancer screening, screening for osteoporosis, and diagnosis of sexually transmitted infections (mean rating of 4.95/each). Other highly rated topics included those related to contraception/reproductive planning, breast disease, menopause, and performing the breast and pelvic examinations. The diagnosis of gender-specific conditions was generally rated as more important than the management of the conditions. In addition, pregnancy-related topics were overall deemed as less important for internal medicine training.

CONCLUSION

Our study generated a consensus list of 35 core topics in women's heath that should serve as a guide to residency programs for the development of women's health curricula.

Considerations about retirement from clinical practice by obstetrician-gynecologists

Retirement of obstetrician-gynecologists is becoming a matter of increasing concern in light of an expected shortage of practicing physicians. Determining a retirement age is often complex. We address what constitutes a usual retirement age range from general clinical practice for an obstetrician-gynecologist, compare this with practitioners in other specialties, and suggest factors of importance to obstetrician-gynecologists before retirement. Although the proportion of obstetrician-gynecologists ≥55 years old is similar to other specialists, obstetrician-gynecologists retire at younger ages than male or female physicians in other specialties. A customary age range of retirement from obstetrician-gynecologist practice would be 59-69 years (median, 64 years). Women, who constitute a growing proportion of obstetrician-gynecologists in practice, retire earlier than men. The large cohort of "baby boomer" physicians who are approaching retirement (approximately 15,000 obstetrician-gynecologists) deserves tracking while an investigation of integrated women's health care delivery models is conducted. Relevant considerations would include strategies to extend the work longevity of those who are considering early retirement or desiring part-time employment. Likewise volunteer work in underserved community clinics or teaching medical students and residents offers continuing personal satisfaction for many retirees and preservation of self-esteem and medical knowledge.

Update: A Review of Women's Health Fellowships, Their Role in Interdisciplinary Health Care, and the Need for Accreditation

While Women's Health (WH) Fellowships have been in existence since 1990, knowledge of their existence seems limited. Specialized training in WH is crucial to educate leaders who can appropriately integrate this multidisciplinary field into academic centers, especially as the demand for providers confident in the areas of contraception, perimenopause/menopause, hormone therapy, osteoporosis, hypoactive sexual desire disorder, medical management of abnormal uterine bleeding, office based care of stress/urge incontinence, and gender-based medicine are increasing popular and highly sought after. WH fellowship programs would benefit from accreditation from the American Board of Medical Subspecialties and from the American College of Graduate Medical Education, as this may allow for greater recruitment, selection, and training of future leaders in WH. This article provides a current review of what WH trained physicians can offer patients, and also highlights the added value that accreditation would offer the field. Ultimately, accrediting WH fellowships will improve women's health medical education by creating specialists that can serve as academic leaders to help infuse gender specific education in primary residencies, as well as serve as consultants and leaders, and promote visibility and prestige of the field.

An aging population and growing disease burden will require a large and specialized health care workforce by 2025

As the US population ages, the increasing prevalence of chronic disease and complex medical conditions will have profound implications for the future health care system. We projected future prevalence of selected diseases and health risk factors to model future demand for health care services for each person in a representative sample of the current and projected future population. Based on changing demographic characteristics and expanded medical coverage under the Affordable Care Act, we project that the demand for adult primary care services will grow by approximately 14 percent between 2013 and 2025. Vascular surgery has the highest projected demand growth (31 percent), followed by cardiology (20 percent) and neurological surgery, radiology, and general surgery (each 18 percent). Market indicators such as long wait times to obtain appointments suggest that the current supply of many specialists throughout the United States is inadequate to meet the current demand. Failure to train sufficient numbers and the correct mix of specialists could exacerbate already long wait times for appointments, reduce access to care for some of the nation's most vulnerable patients, and reduce patients' quality of life.

Patterns of Change in ACGME-Accredited Residency Programs and Positions: Implication for the Adequacy of GME Positions and Supply of Physicians in the United States

BACKGROUND

Recent studies suggest that the supply of primary care physicians and generalist physicians in other specialties may be inadequate to meet the needs of the US population. Data on the numbers and types of physicians-in-training, such as those collected by the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME), can be used to help understand variables affecting this supply.

OBJECTIVE

We assessed trends in the number and type of medical school graduates entering accredited residencies, and the impact those trends could have on the future physician workforce.

METHODS

Since 2004, the ACGME has published annually its data on accredited institutions, programs, and residents to help the graduate medical education community understand major trends in residency education, and to help guide graduate medical education policy. We present key results and trends for the period between academic years 2003-2004 and 2012-2013.

RESULTS

The data show that increases in trainees in accredited programs are not uniform across specialties, or the types of medical school from which trainees graduated. In the past 10 years, the growth in residents entering training that culminates in initial board certification ("pipeline" specialties) was 13.0%, the number of trainees entering subspecialty education increased 39.9%. In the past 5 years, there has been a 25.8% increase in the number of osteopathic physicians entering allopathic programs.

CONCLUSIONS

These trends portend challenges in absorbing the increasing numbers of allopathic and osteopathic graduates, and US international graduates in accredited programs. The increasing trend in subspecialization appears at odds with the current understanding of the need for generalist physicians.