The impact of benign gene expression classifier test results on the endocrinologist-patient decision to operate on patients with thyroid nodules with indeterminate fine-needle aspiration cytopathology

A Machine Learning Model Based on Thyroid US Radiomics to Discriminate Between Benign and Malignant Nodules

Background/Objectives: Thyroid nodules are a very common finding, mostly benign but sometimes malignant, and thus require accurate diagnosis. Ultrasound and fine needle biopsy are the most widely used and reliable diagnostic methods to date, but they are sometimes limited in addressing benign from malignant nodules, mainly with regard to ultrasound, by the operator's experience. Radiomics, quantitative feature extraction from medical images and machine learning offer promising avenues to improve diagnosis. The aim of this work was to develop a machine learning model based on thyroid ultrasound images to classify nodules into benign and malignant classes. Methods: For this purpose, images of ultrasonography from 142 subjects were collected. Among these subjects, 40 patients (28.2%) belonged to the class "malignant" and 102 patients (71.8%) belonged to the class "benign", according to histological diagnosis from fine-needle aspiration. This image set was used for the training, cross-validation and internal testing of three different machine learning models. A robust radiomic approach was applied, under the hypothesis that the radiomic feature could capture the disease heterogeneity among the two groups. Three models consisting of four ensembles of machine learning classifiers (random forests, support vector machines and k-nearest neighbor classifiers) were developed for the binary classification task of interest. The best performing model was then externally tested on a cohort of 21 new patients. Results: The best model (ensemble of random forest) showed Receiver Operating Characteristic-Area Under the Curve (ROC-AUC) (%) of 85 (majority vote), 83.7 ** (mean) [80.2-87.2], accuracy (%) of 83, 81.2 ** [77.1-85.2], sensitivity (%) of 70, 67.5 ** [64.3-70.7], specificity (%) of 88, 86.5 ** [82-91], positive predictive value (PPV) (%) of 70, 66.5 ** [57.9-75.1] and negative predictive value (NPV) (%) of 88, 87.1 ** [85.5-88.8] (* p < 0.05, ** p < 0.005) in the internal test cohort. It achieved an accuracy of 90.5%, a sensitivity of 100%, a specificity of 86.7%, a PPV of 75% and an NPV of 100% in the external testing cohort. Conclusions: The model constituted of four ensembles of random forest classifiers could identify all the malignant nodes and the consistent majority of benign in the external testing cohort.

Ultrasound Features and Performance of Afirma Gene Sequencing Classifier in Cytologically Indeterminate Thyroid Nodules

Background

Cytologically indeterminate thyroid nodules (ITN) pose a management challenge. Here we analyze if adding ultrasound characteristics to Afirma Genome Sequence Classifier (GSC) results increases GSC diagnostic performance.

Methods

We retrospectively analyzed 237 GSC-tested Bethesda III/IV ITNs between July 2017 and December 2019 and classified them by American Thyroid Association (ATA) and the Thyroid Imaging Reporting and Data System (TIRADS) of the American College of Radiology.

Results

The benign call rate was higher in Bethesda III ITNs with TIRADS <5 vs TIRADS 5 (89% vs 68%. P = .015). The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of GSC in ATA high-risk Bethesda III ITNs vs lower were 100% vs 80% (P = 1), 89.5% vs 91.5% (P = .67), 66.7% vs 25% (P = .13), and 100% vs 99.2% (P = 1), respectively, and for TIRADS 5 vs <5 were 100% vs 80% (P = 1), 88.2% vs 91.4% (P = .65), 71.4% vs 23.5% (P = .06), and 100% vs 99.3% (P = 1). The sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV of GSC in high-risk ATA Bethesda IV ITNs vs lower were 66.7% vs 100% (P = .42), 83.3% vs 85.7% (P = 1), 66.7% vs 64.3% (P = 1), and 83.3% vs 100% (P = .3), respectively, and for TIRADS 5 vs <5 were 66.7% vs 90% (P = .42), 88.9% vs 83.8% (P = 1), 66.7% vs 60% (P = 1), and 88.9% vs 96.9% (P = .39).

Conclusion

Sensitivity, specificity, NPV, and PPV of GSC were not significantly different in ATA high-risk and TIRADS 5 ITNs compared to ATA < high-risk and TIRADS 1-4 ITNs.

Clinical use of Molecular Data in Thyroid Nodules and Cancer

Over the past 3 decades, advances in the molecular genetics of thyroid cancer (TC) have been translated into diagnostic tests, prognostic markers, and therapeutic agents. The main drivers in differentiated TC pathogenesis are single-point mutations and gene fusions in components of the Mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) and phosphoinositide-3-kinase-protein kinase B/Akt (PI3K/Akt) pathways. Other important genetic alterations in the more advanced types of TC include TERT promoter, TP53, EIF1AX, and epigenetic alterations. Using this knowledge, several molecular tests have been developed for cytologically indeterminate thyroid nodules. Currently, 3 commercially available tests are in use including a DNA/RNA-based test (ThyroSeq v.3), an RNA-based test (Afirma Gene Sequencing Classifier), and a hybrid DNA/miRNA test, ThyGeNEXT/ThyraMIR. These tests are mostly used to rule out malignancy in Bethesda III and IV thyroid nodules because they all have high sensitivities and negative predictive values. Their common use, predominantly in the United States, has resulted in a significant reduction in unnecessary thyroid surgeries for benign nodules. Some of these tests also provide information on the underlying molecular drivers of TC; this may support decision making in initial TC management planning, although this practice has not yet been widely adopted. More importantly, molecular testing is essential in patients with advanced disease before using specific mono-kinase inhibitors (eg, selpercatinib for RET-altered TC) because these drugs are ineffective in the absence of a specific molecular target. This mini-review discusses the utilization of molecular data in the clinical management of patients with thyroid nodules and TC in these different clinical situations.

European experience with the Afirma Gene Expression Classifier for indeterminate thyroid nodules: A clinical utility study in the Netherlands

BACKGROUND

The Gene Expression Classifier (GEC) and Genomic Sequencing Classifier (GSC) were developed to improve risk stratification of indeterminate nodules. Our aim was to assess the clinical utility in a European population with restrictive diagnostic workup.

METHODS

Clinical utility of the GEC was assessed in a prospective multicenter cohort of 68 indeterminate nodules. Diagnostic surgical rates for Bethesda III and IV nodules were compared to a historical cohort of 171 indeterminate nodules. Samples were post hoc tested with the GSC.

RESULTS

The GEC classified 26% as benign. Surgical rates between the prospective and historical cohort did not differ (72.1% vs. 76.6%). The GSC classified 59% as benign, but misclassified six malignant lesions as benign.

CONCLUSION

Implementation of GEC in management of indeterminate nodules in a European country with restrictive diagnostic workup is currently not supported, especially in oncocytic nodules. Prospective studies with the GSC in European countries are needed to determine the clinical utility.

Current controversies in the management of patients with indeterminate thyroid nodules

The management of cytologically indeterminate thyroid nodules remains debatable as their malignancy is difficult to establish. Most nodules have benign postoperative histology, but an accurate assessment of their proclivity for malignant transformation is crucial. Numerous studies have investigated the effects of various tools, including clinical, radiological, and cytological features, as well as biochemical and molecular markers, on the management of these heterogeneous nodules. Collectively, strategies aim to treat malignant nodules and avoid unnecessary surgery for asymptomatic benign nodules. Currently, no clear guidelines for the optimal management of cytologically indeterminate thyroid nodules exist to determine whether a conservative approach with long-term observation or surgical intervention should be selected. Thus, personalized approaches have been recommended. Large-scale multicenter prospective studies are needed to elucidate controversial issues. As this topic has not been comprehensively covered based on publications from the Gulf region, this review aims to shed light on remaining controversies.

Advances in Molecular Profiling and Their Potential Influence on the Extent of Surgery in Well-Differentiated Thyroid Carcinoma (WDTC)

Thyroid cancer surgery has evolved dramatically with advances in our understanding of the biological behaviour of WDTC. Molecular profiling is shedding light on the subset that may behave aggressively. In an era when thyroid cancer management is becoming increasingly conservative, decision making regarding the extent of surgery must be objectively guided by molecular markers. The aim of the present article is to summarise the current published literature and provide possible practice recommendations. An online search for relevant published articles was performed using several databases. Title, abstract, and full-text screening, along with data extraction, was performed by two independent reviewers after the inclusion and exclusion criteria were defined. A total of 1241 articles were identified, and 82 relevant articles were extracted and scrutinised. BRAF V600E and TERT promoter mutations were found to be associated with an increased risk of disease recurrence and distant metastases. Several other mutations have been identified that enhance disease aggressiveness (such as RET/PTC, PTEN, and TP53). One of the most important determinants of the outcome in WDTC is the extent of surgical resection. The evolution of molecular testing has reached a stage of personalised incorporation into surgical practice. Guidelines for molecular testing and surgery in WDTC will need to be clearly defined, arguably representing the next chapter in the management of the disease.

Molecular testing in thyroid cancer diagnosis and management

Molecular diagnostic testing has had a profound impact on the diagnosis and management of thyroid nodules and thyroid cancer. Based on the tremendous expansion of knowledge of the genomic landscape of thyroid cancer over the past few decades, tests have been developed, analyzed, modified, and implemented into clinical practice. Genomic testing of thyroid nodules to improve preoperative diagnosis has become an important component supporting decision-making in clinical care, reducing the need for diagnostic surgeries and improving accuracy of cancer risk assessment. In addition, a role for molecular testing of established thyroid cancers to assist in selection of therapeutic options for patients with advanced and/or progressive disease has been established. Research is ongoing to determine if molecular results should affect management of less aggressive forms of thyroid cancer earlier in clinical management. This review will outline the various commercial platforms for molecular diagnostics for nodules emphasizing their performance parameters and indications for use, as well as discuss the use of genomic analysis for progressive thyroid cancer and highlight opportunities for further research.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of molecular testing for cytologically indeterminate thyroid nodules

BACKGROUND

Thyroid nodules affect up to 65% of the population. Although fine needle aspirate (FNA) cytology is the gold standard for diagnosis, 15-30% of results are indeterminate. Molecular testing may aid in the diagnosis of nodules and potentially reduce unnecessary surgery. However, these tests are associated with significant costs. The objective of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of Afirma, a commercially available molecular test, in cytologically indeterminate thyroid nodules.

METHODS

The base case was a solitary thyroid nodule with no additional high-risk features and an indeterminate FNA. Decision tree analysis was performed from the single payer perspective with a 1-year time horizon. Costing data were collected through micro-costing methodology. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed. The primary outcome was the incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER) of cost per thyroid surgery avoided.

RESULTS

Over 1 year, mean cost estimates were $8176.28 with 0.58 effectiveness for the molecular testing strategy and $6016.83 with 0.07 effectiveness for current standard management. The ICER was $4234.22 per surgery avoided. At a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $5000 per surgery avoided, molecular testing is cost-effective with 63% certainty.

CONCLUSION

This cost-effectiveness analysis suggests utilizing Afirma for indeterminate solitary thyroid nodules is a cost-effective strategy for avoiding unnecessary thyroid surgery. With a $5000 WTP threshold, molecular testing has a 63% chance of being the more cost-effective strategy. The cost effectiveness varies based on the cost of the molecular test and the value of Afirma for patients with indeterminate thyroid nodules depends on the WTP threshold to avoid unnecessary thyroid surgery.

BRAF p.V600E genetic testing based on ultrasound-guided fine-needle biopsy improves the malignancy rate in thyroid surgery: our single-center experience in the past 10 years

Purpose

Ultrasound-guided fine-needle aspiration biopsy (UG-FNAB) was implemented in Qilu Hospital of Shandong University in 2015 as a preoperative diagnostic method for thyroid surgery. BRAF p.V600E genetic testing was implemented in 2019. This study evaluated the impact of these two tests on the malignancy rate in patients undergoing thyroidectomy.

Methods

A total of 19,496 patients were included in the study. We retrospectively collected data from patients undergoing thyroid surgery in the Hospital Information System (HIS) of Qilu Hospital of Shandong University from January 2012 to December 2021. Meanwhile, data of FNAB, UG-FNAB, and BRAF p.V600E genetic testing were collected. Differences in means among groups were analyzed via one-way ANOVA, and differences in frequencies were analyzed via Pearson’s chi-squared test.

Results

In this study, the 10-year period was divided into three stages, with the implementation of UG-FNAB in 2015 and that of BRAF p.V600E genetic testing in 2019 as dividing lines. The malignancy rate in thyroid surgery increased significantly during these three stages (48.06% vs. 73.47% vs. 88.17%; P < 0.001). In the same period (May 2019 to December 2021), the malignancy rate in thyroid surgery was significantly different between the Non-FNAB, UG-FNAB, and UG-FNAB-BRAF groups (78.87% vs. 95.63% vs. 98.32%; P < 0.001).

Conclusions

The successful implementation of UG-FNAB and BRAF p.V600E genetic testing improved the malignancy rate in thyroid surgery and reduced unnecessary diagnostic surgery for benign and marginal lesions. It can, therefore, provide a clinical reference for other hospitals.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00432-022-04235-3.

Prognostic Utility of the Ki-67 Labeling Index in Follicular Thyroid Tumors: a 20-Year Experience from a Tertiary Thyroid Center

Follicular thyroid tumors pose a diagnostic challenge on the preoperative level, as the discrimination between follicular thyroid carcinoma (FTC) and adenoma (FTA) demands careful histopathological investigation. Moreover, prognostication of FTCs is mostly based on tumor size and extent of invasive properties, while immunohistochemical markers pinpointing high-risk cases are lacking. We have routinely established a Ki-67 labeling index for follicular thyroid tumors since 1999. To assess the potential value of Ki-67 as an adjunct tool to (1) correctly separate FTCs from FTAs and (2) help identify poor-prognosis FTCs, we collected histopathological and clinical data from 818 follicular thyroid tumors with a histological Ki-67 labeling index established in clinical routine practice (516 FTAs, 252 FTCs, and 50 follicular thyroid tumors of uncertain malignant potential (FT-UMPs)). The Ki-67 labeling index was higher in FTCs (mean 5.8%) than in FTAs (mean 2.6%) (P < 0.001), and a receiver operating characteristic curve analysis revealed a cut-off value of 4% to separate FTC from FTA with a sensitivity and specificity of 65% and 83%, respectively. Similarly, a Ki-67 labeling index above 4% was found to identify FTCs that later metastasized from clinically indolent FTCs with a sensitivity and specificity of 80% and 48%, respectively. Ki-67 constituted an independent predictor of future FTC metastases/recurrence and death of disease, and a value > 4% was a reliable prognostic marker within individual pT staging groups. We conclude that Ki-67 is a potentially valuable marker for the prognostication of FTCs, and future implementation in the histopathological assessments of follicular thyroid tumors could be beneficial if reproduced in international series.

Long-term Follow-up of Cytologically Indeterminate Thyroid Nodules Found Benign on Molecular Testing: A Validation Study

Objective

Molecular testing has revolutionized management of indeterminate thyroid nodules (Bethesda categories III and IV). Few studies have attempted to validate the negative predictive value of molecular tests. Using long-term observation as a surrogate for surgical resection, we sought to examine the false-negative rate of “benign” indeterminate thyroid nodules on molecular testing.

Study Design

Case series with retrospective data collection and chart review.

Setting

Large community-based practice with multiple satellite offices.

Methods

All patients with thyroid nodules that underwent ultrasound-guided fine-needle aspiration biopsy between 2013 and 2019 were evaluated through retrospective analysis. Cytologically indeterminate nodules reflexively underwent molecular testing to guide clinical management. Observation was recommended for lesions with benign molecular testing, and these nodules were followed clinically and by ultrasound.

Results

A total of 2011 nodules underwent fine-needle aspiration, of which 280 (14%) were indeterminate thyroid nodules. Of those 280 nodules, 100 (36%) were benign on molecular testing. Three samples were excluded from analysis due to patient deaths from unrelated causes. Surgical resection was recommended in 16 of the 97 nodules (17%), with the majority due to size and compressive symptoms. Histopathology was available in 14 nodules that underwent surgery, with 1 demonstrating minimally invasive follicular carcinoma.

Conclusion

While molecular testing is safe to use in guiding management of indeterminate thyroid nodules, consideration of individualized clinical factors and close long-term follow-up remains paramount.

Assessment of diagnostic value of preoperative elastography in thyroid nodules having indeterminate cytology results

Background/aim

The management of nodules with indeterminate cytology [atypia of undetermined significance (AUS), follicular lesion of undetermined significance (FLUS), follicular neoplasm (FN), suspicious for a follicular neoplasm (SFN), and suspicious for malignancy (SM)] results is controversial. To assess the role of the elastography technique in the diagnosis of malignancy in the subtypes of indeterminate thyroid nodules.

Materials and methods

We included 132 patients with indeterminate cytology who underwent thyroid surgery. Sensitivity, specificity, area under the curve, and optimal cut-off points were calculated with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis for elastography score (ES) and strain index (SI).

Results

Malignancy was observed in 27/95 (28.4%) of the AUS-FLUS cytology and 12/24 (50%) of FN, SFN cytology. All of the 13 patients (100 %) with SM are found to be malignant on histology. In the FLUS group, nodules with ES greater or equal to 3, the presence of malignancy was higher 17/41 (41.5%) when compared with nodules with ES smaller than 39/46 (19.6 %) (p = 0.023). In the SFN group, 2 of 2 nodules with an ES score of 4 and 1 of 1 nodule with an ES score of 5 were malignant. In the FLUS group, 4 of 10 nodules with an ES score of 4 and 2 of 2 nodules with an ES score of 5 were malignant.

Conclusion

Thyroid elastography may reduce unnecessary surgery for both patients with AUS/FLUS and selected SFN cytology. Elastography appears to be helpful in follicular variants and other types of papillary thyroid cancer, however, not in follicular thyroid cancer.

Combination of ultrasound and molecular testing in malignancy risk estimate of Bethesda category IV thyroid nodules: results from a single-institution prospective study

PURPOSE

Malignancy prediction in indeterminate thyroid nodules is still challenging. We prospectively evaluated whether the combination of ultrasound (US) risk stratification and molecular testing improves the assessment of malignancy risk in Bethesda Category IV thyroid nodules.

METHODS

Ninety-one consecutively diagnosed Bethesda Category IV thyroid nodules were prospectively evaluated before surgery by both ACR- and EU-TIRADS US risk-stratification systems and by a further US-guided fine-needle aspiration cytology (FNAC) for the following molecular testing: BRAFV600E, N-RAS codons 12/13, N-RAS codon 61, H-RAS codons 12/13, H-RAS codon 61, K-RAS codons 12/13, and K-RAS codon 61 point-mutations, as well as PAX8/PPARγ, RET/PC1, and RET/PTC 3 rearrangements.

RESULTS

At histology, 37% of nodules were malignant. No significant association was found between malignancy and either EU- or ACR-TIRADS. In total, 58 somatic mutations were identified, including 3 BRAFV600E (5%), 5 N-RAS 12/13 (9%), 13 N-RAS 61 (22%), 7 H-RAS 12/13 (12%), 11 H-RAS 61 (19%), 6 K-RAS 12/13 (10%), 8 K-RAS 61 (14%) mutations and 2 RET/PTC1 (4%), 0 RET/PTC 3 (0%), 3 PAX8/PPARγ (5%) rearrangements. At least one somatic mutation was found in 28% and 44% of benign and malignant nodules, respectively, although malignancy was not statistically associated with the outcome of the mutational test. However, the combination of ACR-, but not EU-, TIRADS with the presence of at least one somatic mutation, was significantly associated with malignant histology (P = 0.03).

CONCLUSION

US risk stratification and FNAC molecular testing may synergistically contribute to improve malignancy risk estimate of Bethesda category IV thyroid nodules.

Treatment Choices in Managing Bethesda III and IV Thyroid Nodules: A Canadian Multi-institutional Study

Objective

Patient-centered decision making is increasingly identified as a desirable component of medical care. To manage indeterminate thyroid nodules, patients are offered the options of surveillance, diagnostic hemithyroidectomy, or molecular testing. Our objective was to identify factors associated with decision making in this population.

Study Design

This is a retrospective cross-sectional study of patients with Bethesda III and IV thyroid nodules.

Setting

Multi-institutional.

Methods

Factors of interest included age, sex, socioeconomic status (SES), nodule size, institution, attending surgeon, surgeon payment model, and hospital type. Our outcome of interest was the initial management decision made by patients.

Results

A total of 956 patients were included. The majority of patients had Bethesda III nodules (n = 738, 77%). A total of 538 (56%) patients chose surgery, 413 (43%) chose surveillance, and 5 (1%) chose molecular testing. There was a significant variation in management decision based on attending surgeon (proportion of patients choosing surgery: 15%-83%; P≤.0001). Fee-for-service surgeon payment models (odds ratio [OR], 1.657; 95% CI, 1.263-2.175; P < .001) and community hospital settings (OR, 1.529; 95% CI, 1.145-2.042; P < .001) were associated with the decision for surgery. Larger nodule size, younger patients, and Bethesda IV nodules were also associated with surgery.

Conclusion

While it seems appropriate that larger nodules, younger age, and higher Bethesda class were associated with decision for surgery, we also identified attending surgeon, surgeon payment model, and hospital type as important factors. Given this, standardizing management discussions may improve patient-centered shared decision making.

Prognostic and Therapeutic Role of Angiogenic Microenvironment in Thyroid Cancer

Simple Summary

Angiogenesis is an essential event for the progression of solid tumors and is promoted by angiogenic cytokines released in the tumor microenvironment by neoplastic and stromal cells. Over the last 20 years, the role of the microenvironment and the implication of several angiogenic factors in tumorigenesis of solid and hematological neoplasms have been widely studied. The tumor microenvironment has also been well-defined for thyroid cancer, clarifying the importance of angiogenesis in cancer progression, spread, and metastasis. Furthermore, recent studies have evaluated the association of circulating angiogenic factors with the clinical outcomes of differentiated thyroid cancer, potentially providing noninvasive, low-cost, and safe tests that can be used in screening, diagnosis, and follow-up. In this review, we highlight the mechanisms of action of these proangiogenic factors and their different molecular pathways, as well as their applications in the treatment and prognosis of thyroid cancer.

Abstract

Thyroid cancer is the most common endocrine malignancy, with a typically favorable prognosis following standard treatments, such as surgical resection and radioiodine therapy. A subset of thyroid cancers progress to refractory/metastatic disease. Understanding how the tumor microenvironment is transformed into an angiogenic microenvironment has a role of primary importance in the aggressive behavior of these neoplasms. During tumor growth and progression, angiogenesis represents a deregulated biological process, and the angiogenic switch, characterized by the formation of new vessels, induces tumor cell proliferation, local invasion, and hematogenous metastases. This evidence has propelled the scientific community’s effort to study a number of molecular pathways (proliferation, cell cycle control, and angiogenic processes), identifying mediators that may represent viable targets for new anticancer treatments. Herein, we sought to review angiogenesis in thyroid cancer and the potential role of proangiogenic cytokines for risk stratification of patients. We also present the current status of treatment of advanced differentiated, medullary, and poorly differentiated thyroid cancers with multiple tyrosine kinase inhibitors, based on the rationale of angiogenesis as a potential therapeutic target.

Adherence to Active Surveillance and Clinical Outcomes in Patients with Indeterminate Thyroid Nodules Not Referred for Thyroidectomy

OBJECTIVE

Outcomes of patients with cytologically indeterminate thyroid nodules not referred for thyroidectomy have hardly been investigated. We previously reported outcomes of 322 patients with thyroid nodules classified according to the Bethesda System of Reporting Thyroid Cytology (BSRTC) as indeterminate (B3/B4), of whom 123 (38.2%) underwent thyroidectomy. In the present extension study, we investigated adherence and outcomes in the remaining unoperated 199 patients.

METHODS

We conducted a file review of 189/199 patients with thyroid nodules cytologically diagnosed as B3 (n = 174) or B4 (n = 15) in 2011-2012 who were conservatively followed at our institution until 2019.

RESULTS

Among 174 patients with B3 nodules, 140 (80.4%) underwent repeated ultrasound. Nodular growth was detected in 23 (16.4%), and findings remained stable in 105 (75%). Fine-needle aspiration was repeated in 88/174 patients (50.6%), with B2 results in 62 (70.4%) and B3/B4/B5 in 20 (22.7%). Thyroidectomy was performed in 14/174 patients (8%) in the B3 and 5/15 patients (33%) in the B4 group at a median of 5 years' follow-up; thyroid cancer was diagnosed in 4/14 patients (28.5%) and 3/5 patients (60%), respectively. For B3 patients who remained unoperated, none had evidence of thyroid cancer at last follow-up. A reason for avoiding surgery was documented in 6/10 unoperated B4 patients (1 thyroid lymphoma, 3 died of unrelated causes, 2 were considered inoperable due to advanced age).

CONCLUSIONS

Most patients with initially unoperated B3/B4 nodules adhere, at least partially, to active surveillance. For B3 nodules, subsequent thyroidectomy and thyroid cancer detection are rare events, and patients may be safely managed without using molecular markers. Thyroid cancer is diagnosed in most B4 patients who undergo thyroidectomy in our institution.

Outcomes of Indeterminate Thyroid Nodules Managed Nonoperatively after Molecular Testing

CONTEXT

Molecular testing to refine the diagnosis of cytologically indeterminate thyroid nodules has become increasingly popular, but data on long-term durability of test results and the rate of delayed operation are limited.

OBJECTIVE

Determine the delayed rate of surgical resection in indeterminate nodules with benign/negative molecular testing and the risk of false-negative molecular test results.

DESIGN

Prospective follow-up of the Gene Expression Classifier vs Targeted Next-Generation Sequencing in the Management of Indeterminate Thyroid Nodules randomized controlled trial comparing the diagnostic test performance of Afirma Gene Expression Classifier and ThyroSeq v2.

SETTING

University of California, Los Angeles.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients who underwent thyroid biopsy with indeterminate (Bethesda III/IV) cytology (April 2016 to July 2017).

INTERVENTION

Ultrasound surveillance.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

False-negative rate of molecular testing.

RESULTS

Of 95 indeterminate nodules with negative/benign molecular test results, 12 nodules underwent immediate resection (11 benign nodules, 1 noninvasive follicular thyroid neoplasm nodule with papillary-like nuclear features). Nonoperative management was pursued for 83 (87.4%) nodules. The median surveillance was 26.7 months. Ten nodules were resected during surveillance and malignancy was identified in 4 nodules (overall false-negative rate of 5.8%). In the 4 malignant nodules that underwent delayed operation, surgery was prompted by sonographic changes during surveillance.

CONCLUSIONS

The majority of indeterminate nodules with negative molecular testing have a stable clinical course over 3 years of follow-up, but our finding of a 6% false-negative rate highlights the importance of continuing sonographic surveillance. Long-term studies are needed to determine the optimal length of follow-up.

Thyroseq v3, Afirma GSC, and microRNA Panels Versus Previous Molecular Tests in the Preoperative Diagnosis of Indeterminate Thyroid Nodules: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

Molecular tests are being used increasingly as an auxiliary diagnostic tool so as to avoid a diagnostic surgery approach for cytologically indeterminate thyroid nodules (ITNs). Previous test versions, Thyroseq v2 and Afirma Gene Expression Classifier (GEC), have proven shortcomings in malignancy detection performance.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to evaluate the diagnostic performance of the established Thyroseq v3, Afirma Gene Sequencing Classifier (GSC), and microRNA-based assays versus prior iterations in ITNs, in light of "rule-in" and "rule-out" concepts. It further analyzed the impact of noninvasive follicular thyroid neoplasm with papillary-like nuclear features (NIFTP) reclassification and Bethesda cytological subtypes on the performance of molecular tests.

METHODS

Pubmed, Scopus, and Web of Science were the databases used for the present research, a process that lasted until September 2020. A random-effects bivariate model was used to estimate the summary sensitivity, specificity, positive (PLR) and negative likelihood ratios (NLR), and area under the curve (AUC) for each panel. The conducted sensitivity analyses addressed different Bethesda categories and NIFTP thresholds.

RESULTS

A total of 40 eligible studies were included with 7,831 ITNs from 7,565 patients. Thyroseq v3 showed the best overall performance (AUC 0.95; 95% confidence interval: 0.93-0.97), followed by Afirma GSC (AUC 0.90; 0.87-0.92) and Thyroseq v2 (AUC 0.88; 0.85-0.90). In terms of "rule-out" abilities Thyroseq v3 (NLR 0.02; 95%CI: 0.0-2.69) surpassed Afirma GEC (NLR 0.18; 95%CI: 0.10-0.33). Thyroseq v2 (PLR 3.5; 95%CI: 2.2-5.5) and Thyroseq v3 (PLR 2.8; 95%CI: 1.2-6.3) achieved superior "rule-in" properties compared to Afirma GSC (PLR 1.9; 95%CI: 1.3-2.8). Evidence for Thyroseq v3 seems to have higher quality, notwithstanding the paucity of studies. Both Afirma GEC and Thyroseq v2 performance have been affected by NIFTP reclassification. ThyGenNEXT/ThyraMIR and RosettaGX show prominent preliminary results.

CONCLUSION

The newly emerged tests, Thyroseq v3 and Afirma GSC, designed for a "rule-in" purpose, have been proved to outperform in abilities to rule out malignancy, thus surpassing previous tests no longer available, Thyroseq 2 and Afirma GEC. However, Thyroseq v2 still ranks as the best rule-in molecular test.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

http://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO, identifier CRD42020212531.

The Role of Exosomes in Thyroid Cancer and Their Potential Clinical Application

The incidence of thyroid cancer (TC) is rapidly increasing worldwide. The diagnostic accuracy and dynamics of TC need to be improved, and traditional treatments are not effective enough for patients with poorly differentiated thyroid cancer. Exosomes are membrane vesicles secreted specifically by various cells and are involved in intercellular communication. Recent studies have shown that exosomes secreted by TC cells contribute to tumor progression, angiogenesis and metastasis. Exosomes in liquid biopsies can reflect the overall molecular information of tumors, and have natural advantages in diagnosing TC. Exosomes also play an important role in tumor therapy due to their special physicochemical properties. TC patients will benefit as more exosome patterns are discovered. In this review, we discuss the role of TC-derived exosomes in tumorigenesis and development, and describe the application of exosomes in the diagnosis and treatment of TC.

American Thyroid Association Sonographic Risk and Afirma Gene Expression Classifier Alone and in Combination for the Diagnosis of Thyroid Nodules with Bethesda Category III Cytology

Background: The Afirma gene expression classifier (GEC) has been used to aid in the diagnosis and management of thyroid nodules having Bethesda category III fine-needle aspiration cytologic diagnosis (B3 nodules). The American Thyroid Association sonographic risk stratification system for thyroid nodules (ATA-US) may stratify B3 nodules and aid in the decision to order a molecular test. The aim of this study was to assess the association between ATA-US and GEC as well as to determine their individual and combined diagnostic performances when applied to B3 nodules. Methods: A retrospective single-center study included B3 nodules that had undergone evaluation by GEC. Each ultrasound was reviewed by three radiologists, and nodules were classified using the 2015 ATA sonographic risk categories. Nodules were determined to be benign or malignant based on surgical pathology or minimum 11 months of follow-up. Positive predictive values (PPV) and negative predictive values (NPV) were calculated for GEC, ATA-US, and GEC across all ATA-US categories. Results: One hundred twenty-six B3 nodules with GEC results were included and deemed benign or malignant based on final pathology or follow-up. Prevalence of malignancy was 32%. The rate of malignancy was similar in the ATA-US high suspicion (HS) and intermediate suspicion (IS) categories at 42% and 38%, respectively; and lower in nodules with low suspicion sonography (LS) and very low suspicion sonography (VLS) at 23% and 11%, respectively. The PPV and NPV of ATA-US was calculated by designating HS or IS sonography as a "positive" test and the lower risk categories as "negative." ATA-US had a PPV of 40% and NPV of 79%. The GEC PPV was 40% and NPV was 83%. The PPV of GEC was 50% in nodules with HS or IS ATA-US and lower at 28% and 20%, respectively, in LS and VLS nodules. The NPV of GEC was 80% in HS, 77% in IS, 84% in LS, and 100% in VLS sonography categories. Conclusions: In B3 nodules, ATA-US and GEC have similar diagnostic performance. The PPV of GEC varies across ATA-US categories, while the NPV remains similar. These data support the need for future prospective studies.

Features of Cytologically Indeterminate Molecularly Benign Nodules Treated With Surgery

BACKGROUND

Most cytologically indeterminate thyroid nodules (ITNs) with benign molecular testing are not surgically removed. The data on clinical outcomes of these nodules are limited.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed all ITNs where molecular testing was performed either with the Afirma gene expression classifier or Afirma gene sequencing classifier between 2011 and 2018 at a single institution.

RESULTS

Thirty-eight out of 289 molecularly benign ITNs were ultimately resected. The most common reason for surgery was compressive symptoms (39%). In multivariable modeling, patients aged <40 years, nodules ≥3 cm, presence of an Afirma suspicious nodule other than the index nodule, and compressive symptoms were associated with higher surgery rates with hazard ratios for surgery of 3.5 (P < 0.001), 3.2 (P < 0.001), 16.8 (P < 0.001), and 7.31 (P < 0.001), respectively. Of resected nodules, 5 were malignant. False-negative rate (FNR) was 1.7%, presuming all unresected nodules were truly benign and 13.2% restricting analysis to resected cases. The FNR was significantly higher in nodules with a high-risk sonographic appearance for cancer (American Thyroid Association high-risk classification and American College of Radiology Thyroid Imaging Reporting and Data Systems score of 5) compared with nodules with all other sonographic categories (11.8% vs 1.1%; P = 0.03 and 11.1% vs 1.1%; P = 0.02, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Younger age, larger nodule size, presence of an Afirma suspicious nodule other than the index nodule, and compressive symptoms were associated with a higher rate of surgery. The FNR of benign Afirma was significantly higher in nodules with high-risk sonographic features.

The role of molecular genetics in the presurgical management of thyroid nodules

INTRODUCTION

Fine-needle aspiration (FNA) is an important diagnostic tool for the evaluation of thyroid nodules. However, in almost ¼ of all nodules submitted to FNA cytology is indeterminate. Since the majority of genetic alterations in thyroid cancer have been identified, the use of molecular testing platforms has been endorsed by American Thyroid Association for management of indeterminate nodules.

EVIDENCE ACQUISITION

Several commercial tests were based on mRNA expression of FNA samples (Afirma®, Veracyte, South San Francisco, CA, USA) while others detect DNA alterations (ThyroSeq, UPMC, Pittsburgh, PA, USA). Noncommercial tests detect limited number of point mutations or re-arrangements (gene panels). Literature study included a Pubmed research for adult original studies from 2003 to 2020, focusing on terms such as "molecular tests," "nodules with indeterminate AUS/FLUS and FN/SFN cytology."

EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS

Gene expression profile tests serve as "rule out" tests due to their high negative predictive value and perform better in a setting of low cancer pretest probability. Genetic alteration platforms display high positive predictive value and serve as rather "rule in" tests but their diagnostic accuracy is hampered either because a small proportion of nodules does not harbor any of these alterations targeted (gene panels) or because commonly identified RAS mutations can also be found in benign nodules.

CONCLUSIONS

Next generation sequencing development and incorporation of other genetic markers such as miRNA can improve diagnostic accuracy of molecular tests.

The American Association of Endocrine Surgeons Guidelines for the Definitive Surgical Management of Thyroid Disease in Adults

OBJECTIVE

To develop evidence-based recommendations for safe, effective, and appropriate thyroidectomy.

BACKGROUND

Surgical management of thyroid disease has evolved considerably over several decades leading to variability in rendered care. Over 100,000 thyroid operations are performed annually in the US.

METHODS

The medical literature from 1/1/1985 to 11/9/2018 was reviewed by a panel of 19 experts in thyroid disorders representing multiple disciplines. The authors used the best available evidence to construct surgical management recommendations. Levels of evidence were determined using the American College of Physicians grading system, and management recommendations were discussed to consensus. Members of the American Association of Endocrine Surgeons reviewed and commented on preliminary drafts of the content.

RESULTS

These clinical guidelines analyze the indications for thyroidectomy as well as its definitions, technique, morbidity, and outcomes. Specific topics include Pathogenesis and Epidemiology, Initial Evaluation, Imaging, Fine Needle Aspiration Biopsy Diagnosis, Molecular Testing, Indications, Extent and Outcomes of Surgery, Preoperative Care, Initial Thyroidectomy, Perioperative Tissue Diagnosis, Nodal Dissection, Concurrent Parathyroidectomy, Hyperthyroid Conditions, Goiter, Adjuncts and Approaches to Thyroidectomy, Laryngology, Familial Thyroid Cancer, Postoperative Care and Complications, Cancer Management, and Reoperation.

CONCLUSIONS

Evidence-based guidelines were created to assist clinicians in the optimal surgical management of thyroid disease.

Differential Diagnosis of Benign and Malignant Thyroid Nodules Using Deep Learning Radiomics of Thyroid Ultrasound Images

PURPOSE

We aimed to propose a highly automatic and objective model named deep learning Radiomics of thyroid (DLRT) for the differential diagnosis of benign and malignant thyroid nodules from ultrasound (US) images.

METHODS

We retrospectively enrolled and finally include US images and fine-needle aspiration biopsies from 1734 patients with 1750 thyroid nodules. A basic convolutional neural network (CNN) model, a transfer learning (TL) model, and a newly designed model named deep learning Radiomics of thyroid (DLRT) were used for the investigation. Their diagnostic accuracy was further compared with human observers (one senior and one junior US radiologist). Moreover, the robustness of DLRT over different US instruments was also validated. Analysis of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were performed to calculate optimal area under it (AUC) for benign and malignant nodules. One observer helped to delineate the nodules.

RESULTS

AUCs of DLRT were 0.96 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.94-0.98), 0.95 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.93-0.97) and 0.97 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.95-0.99) in the training, internal and external validation cohort, respectively, which were significantly better than other deep learning models (P < 0.01) and human observers (P < 0.001). No significant difference was found when applying DLRT on thyroid US images acquired from different US instruments.

CONCLUSIONS

DLRT shows the best overall performance comparing with other deep learning models and human observers. It holds great promise for improving the differential diagnosis of benign and malignant thyroid nodules.

Testing for Afirma in Thyroid Nodules with High-Risk Indeterminate Cytology (TIR3B): First Italian Experience

A percentage of 15 to 30% of thyroid fine-needle aspiration (FNA) is indeterminate, i.e., TIR3A and TIR3B according to the Italian consensus for thyroid cytology. Afirma, a molecular analysis of thyroid FNA specimens, has recently gained popularity as an adjunct to microscopic cytological evaluation, in order to avoid diagnostic surgery in patients with indeterminate thyroid cytology. We described the first Italian experience with Afirma tests in a single Italian institution and assessed the performance of the Afirma test in TIR3B. Moreover, this is a preliminary study to assess the patient response to the offer of Afirma testing. The Afirma test was proposed to 67 patients with thyroid nodules that had yielded TIR3B cytology. Fifty-one patients (76.1%) chose the Afirma test, 25/51 underwent the test but the remaining 26 did not because of cost. A total of 41/67 (61.2%) patients underwent surgery, and 22/41 (53.7%) nodules were carcinomas. Of the 25 tested by Afirma, 9 (36%) were classified as Afirma-suspicious (Afirma-S); seven of them underwent surgery, and in 6/7 (85.7%), a cancer was proven at histology. Afirma is the procedure that many Italian patients with TIR3B lesions would choose. However, its routine clinical application in Italy is currently limited by high costs for the patient. When Afirma is performed in this setting of patients, the cancer risk of suspicious result is higher than that expected in all the series of TIR3B. Therefore, testing for Afirma in these nodules may be useful for managing patients and tailoring their surgical approach.

Online Transfer Learning for Differential Diagnosis of Benign and Malignant Thyroid Nodules With Ultrasound Images

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to propose a highly automatic and objective model named online transfer learning (OTL) for the differential diagnosis of benign and malignant thyroid nodules from ultrasound (US) images.

METHODS

The OTL mothed combined the strategy of transfer learning and online learning. Two datasets (1750 thyroid nodules with 1078 benign and 672 malignant nodules, and 3852 thyroid nodules with 3213 benign and 639 malignant nodules) were collected to develop the model. The diagnostic accuracy was also compared with VGG-16 based transfer learning model and different input images based model. Analysis of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were performed to calculate optimal area under it (AUC) for benign and malignant nodules.

RESULTS

AUC, sensitivity and specificity of OTL were 0.98 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.97-0.99), 98.7% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 97.8%-99.6%) and 98.8% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 97.9%-99.7%) in the final online learning step, which was significantly better than other deep learning models (P < 0.01).

CONCLUSION

OTL model shows the best overall performance comparing with other deep learning models. The model holds a good potential for improving the overall diagnostic efficacy in thyroid nodule US examinations.

SIGNIFICANCE

The proposed OTL model could be seamlessly integrated into the conventional work-flow of thyroid nodule US examinations.

Utilizing the McGill Thyroid Nodule Score to compare between hemithyroidectomy cases who required completion thyroidectomy and cases of hemithyroidectomy alone

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to evaluate whether the McGill Thyroid Nodule Score (MTNS) accurately helps to decide the extent of surgery (hemithyroidectomy versus total thyroidectomy) based on the malignancy risk and to assess whether its use lowers the rate of completion thyroidectomy in cases of indeterminate thyroid nodules.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study comparing MTNS results of patients undergoing hemithyroidectomy in King Abdulaziz Medical City, NGHA, Jeddah from the period of January 2013 to December 2017. We divided the cases into hemithyroidectomy who required completion and hemithyroidectomy who did not need completion surgery. The pre-operative indeterminate FNA biopsy subgroup comprised of Bethesda type III (atypia of undetermined significance/follicular lesion of undetermined significance) and Bethesda type IV (follicular neoplasm/suspicious for a follicular neoplasm/Hurthle cell neoplasm). Post-operative histopathology was divided into benign or malignant groups.

RESULTS

Of the 501 patient charts reviewed, 111 (22.2%) had an indeterminate FNA biopsy. 97 (87.4%) patients were females and 14 (12.6%) were males. In the hemithyroidectomy group, the pre-operative mean of the MTNS was 6.65, while in the completion thyroidectomy the mean was 11.47. The median MTNS was 7 (32% risk of malignancy) for the hemithyroidectomy group and 11 (63% risk of malignancy) for the completion thyroidectomy group (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Based on the MTNS the risk of malignancy in cases of hemithyroidectomy who required completion surgery was significantly higher than those who underwent hemithyroidectomy only. The MTNS can be of value to thyroid surgeon in the pre-operative decision-making when dealing with an indeterminate thyroid nodule on FNA biopsy.

Personalized treatment options for thyroid cancer: current perspectives

Thyroid cancer is one of the most common endocrine malignancies, with increasing incidence all over the world. In spite of good prognosis for differentiated thyroid carcinoma, for an unknown reason, about 5–10% of the patients, the cancer will show aggressive behavior, develop metastasis, and be refractory to treatment strategies like radioactive iodine. Regarding the genetic information, each thyroid cancer patient can be considered as an individual unique one, with unique genetic information. Contrary to standard chemotherapy drugs, target therapy components aim at one or more definite molecular pathway on cancer cells, so their selection is underlying patient’s genetic information. Nowadays, several mutations and rearrangements including BRAF, VEGF receptors, RET, and RET/PTC, KDR, KIT, PDGFRA, CD274, and JAK2 are taken into account for the therapeutic components like larotrectinib (TRK inhibitor), vemurafenib, sunitinib, sorafenib, selumetinib, and axitinib. With the new concept of personalized treatment of thyroid cancer diagnoses, planning treatment, finding out how well treatment will work, and estimating a prognosis has changed for the better over the last decade.

Comparison of Postmarketing Findings vs the Initial Clinical Validation Findings of a Thyroid Nodule Gene Expression Classifier: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Importance

In the United States, the most used molecular test for the evaluation of cytologically indeterminate thyroid nodules is the Afirma gene expression classifier (GEC).

Objective

To evaluate the GEC's diagnostic performance through a novel approach to assess whether the findings of the initial validation study are consistent with the results of postmarketing studies.

Data Sources

PubMed was systematically searched from inception through October 26, 2017, using the terms gene expression classifier or Afirma or GEC and thyroid.

Study Selection

Studies included were those in which the GEC diagnostic performance could be calculated on consecutively resected cytologically indeterminate thyroid nodules.

Data Extraction and Synthesis

Two observers independently assessed study eligibility and risk of bias using the quality assessment tool for observational cohort and cross-sectional studies of the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute. Summary data were extracted by a reviewer and reviewed independently by another. Study authors were contacted if missing data were needed. Data were pooled using a random-effects model. PRISMA and MOOSE guidelines were followed.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Evaluation of the linear correlation between the benign call rate (BCR) and the positive predictive value (PPV).

Results

Of the 137 retrieved titles, 19 (13.9%) were included, comprising a total of 2568 thyroid nodules. Based on a simulation using the sensitivity and specificity reported in the initial validation study, the observed BCR and PPV values in postmarketing studies would have to be explained by different underlying prevalence rates of cancer (15% vs 30%), which is an impossible event. Furthermore, the overall correlation between BCR and PPV for independent studies fell outside the PPV 95% CI of the initial validation study (95% CI, 0.17-0.32) at the BCR of pooled independent studies (0.45) and was just at the limit of the BCR 95% CI of the initial validation study (95% CI, 0.32-0.45) at the PPV of pooled independent studies (0.45). The diagnostic performance was statistically significantly better for atypia or follicular lesions of undetermined significance (diagnostic odds ratio [DOR], 5.67; 95% CI, 4.23-7.60) compared with follicular neoplasms (DOR, 2.24; 95% CI, 1.45-3.47).

Conclusions and Relevance

The findings suggest that the initial validation study cohort was not representative of the populations in whom the GEC has been used, calling into question its reported diagnostic performance, including its negative predictive value.

DNA Methylation-Based Method to Differentiate Malignant from Benign Thyroid Lesions

Background: The differential diagnosis of thyroid nodules using fine-needle aspiration biopsy (FNAB) is challenging due to the inherent limitation of the cytology tests. The use of molecular markers has potential to complement the FNAB-based diagnosis and avoid unnecessary surgeries. In this study, we aimed to identify DNA methylation biomarkers and to develop a diagnostic tool useful for thyroid lesions. Methods: Genome-wide DNA methylation profiles (Illumina 450K) of papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC = 60) and follicular thyroid carcinoma (FTC = 10) were compared with non-neoplastic thyroid tissue samples (NT = 50) and benign thyroid lesions (BTL = 17). The results were confirmed in publicly available databases from the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) and The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) using the same DNA methylation platform. Two classifiers were trained to discriminate FTC and PTC from BTL. To increase the applicability of the method, six differentially methylated CpGs were selected and evaluated in 161 thyroid tumors and 69 BTL postsurgical specimens and 55 prospectively collected FNAB using bisulfite-pyrosequencing. Results: DNA methylation analysis revealed 2130 and 19 differentially methylated CpGs in PTC and FTC, respectively. The CpGs confirmed by GEO and TCGA databases showing high areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve in all sample sets were used to train our diagnostic classifier. The model based on six CpGs was able to differentiate benign from malignant thyroid lesions with 94.3% sensitivity and 82.4% specificity. A similar performance was found applying the algorithm to TCGA and GEO external data sets (91.3-97.4% sensitivity and 87.5% specificity). We successfully evaluated the classifiers using a bisulfite-pyrosequencing technique, achieving 90.7% sensitivity and 75.4% specificity in surgical specimens (five of six CpGs). The study comprising FNAB cytology materials corroborated the applicability and performance of the methodology, demonstrating 86.7% sensitivity and 89.5% specificity in confirmed malignant tumors, and 100% sensitivity and 89% specificity in cases with indeterminate cytology. Conclusions: A novel diagnostic tool with potential application in preoperative screening of thyroid nodules is reported here. The proposed protocol has the potential to avoid unnecessary thyroidectomies.

The Diagnostic Performance of Afirma Gene Expression Classifier for the Indeterminate Thyroid Nodules: A Meta-Analysis

Background

Approximately 15 to 30% of thyroid nodules evaluated by fine-needle aspiration (FNA) were classified as indeterminate; the accurate diagnostic molecular tests of these nodules remain a challenge. We aimed to evaluate the diagnostic performance of Afirma gene expression classifier (GEC) for the indeterminate thyroid nodules (ITNs).

Methods

Studies published from January 2005 to December 2018 were systematically reviewed. The gold reference standard relied on the histopathologic results diagnosis from thyroidectomy surgical specimens. MetaDisc software was used to investigate the pooled sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value (NPV), positive predictive value (PPV), diagnostic odds ratio (DOR), and summary receiver operating characteristic (SROC) curves.

Results

A total of 18 studies involving 5290 patients with 3290 cases of ITNs were included. Collected data revealed that the pooled sensitivity of GEC was 95.5% (95% CI 93.3%–97.0%, p < 0.001), the specificity was 22.1% (95% CI 19.4%-24.9%, p < 0.001), the NPV was 88.2% (95% CI 0.833–0.921, p < 0.001), the PPV was 44.3% (95% CI 0.416–0.471, p < 0.001), and the DOR was 5.25 (95% CI 3.42–8.04, p= 0.855).

Conclusion

The GEC has quite high sensitivity of 95.5% but low specificity of 22.1%. The high sensitivity makes it probable to rule out malignant nodules. Thus, over half of nodules with GEC-suspicious results still require further validation like molecular markers, diagnostic surgery, or long follow-up, which limits its use in future clinical practice.

Afirma Gene Sequencing Classifier Compared with Gene Expression Classifier in Indeterminate Thyroid Nodules

Background: The Afirma Gene Expression Classifier (GEC) has been used to further characterize cytologically indeterminate (cyto-I) thyroid nodules into either benign or suspicious categories. However, its relatively low positive predictive value (PPV) limited its use as a classifier for patients with suspicious results. The Afirma Gene Sequencing Classifier (GSC) was developed to improve PPV while maintaining a high negative predictive value (NPV), yet real-world assessment of its performance is lacking. Methods: We analyzed all patients who had cyto-I nodules and molecular testing with either GEC or GSC between 2011 and 2018 at a single academic medical center. Clinical information was obtained for 343 GEC-tested nodules and 164 GSC-tested nodules. Results: The GSC had a statistically significant higher benign call rate (76.2% vs. 48.1%, p < 0.001), PPV (60.0% vs. 33.3%, p = 0.01), and specificity (94.3% vs. 61.4%, p < 0.001) than the GEC. Improvement was statistically significant in both Bethesda III and Bethesda IV nodules. In particular, the benign call rate of GSC was significantly higher in nodules with Hürthle cell changes (88.8% vs. 25.7%, p < 0.01). The rate of surgical intervention in the indeterminate nodule cohort has decreased by 66.4% since switching to the GSC; 52.5% of indeterminate nodules went to surgery while using the GEC compared with 17.6% with the GSC (p < 0.001). This reduction was statistically significant in nodules with Bethesda III diagnoses, demonstrating a 70.9% decrease (GEC 51.3% vs. GSC 14.9%, p < 0.001), and in nodules with Bethesda IV cytology, a 39.2% decrease was noted (GEC 54.8% vs. GSC 33.3%, p = 0.003). Conclusions: Data from a single academic tertiary center show an improved specificity and PPV while maintaining high sensitivity and NPV for GSC compared with GEC. A statistically significant increase in benign call rates was observed in GSC compared with GEC, likely indicating fewer false positive results. After implementation of GSC, surgical interventions have been reduced by 68%.

Decision Making in Indeterminate Thyroid Nodules and the Role of Molecular Testing

Cytologically indeterminate thyroid nodules are associated with a broad range (5%-75%) of malignant risk and accurately informing definitive management poses a challenge. Advancements in molecular testing of fine-needle aspiration biopsies have improved preoperative diagnostic accuracy and prognostication. For indeterminate nodules, such testing ideally will reduce the need for surgery for benign nodules and potentially guide appropriate extent of initial surgery for malignancy.

Extending expressed RNA genomics from surgical decision making for cytologically indeterminate thyroid nodules to targeting therapies for metastatic thyroid cancer

The Afirma Genomic Sequencing Classifier (GSC) is a rule‐out test for malignancy/noninvasive follicular thyroid neoplasms with papillary‐like nuclear features among patients with Bethesda category III/IV nodules, whereas the complimentary Xpression Atlas provides genomic insights from a curated panel of 511 genes among GSC suspicious and Bethesda category V/VI nodules. Together, they facilitate personalized treatment decisions based on genomic insights derived from the transcriptome of the biopsied target and extend the diagnostic and therapeutic reach of cytopathologists and fine‐needle aspiration biopsy sample collection.

Guidance of sentinel lymph node biopsy decisions in patients with T1–T2 melanoma using gene expression profiling

Aim: Can gene expression profiling be used to identify patients with T1–T2 melanoma at low risk for sentinel lymph node (SLN) positivity? Patients & methods: Bioinformatics modeling determined a population in which a 31-gene expression profile test predicted <5% SLN positivity. Multicenter, prospectively-tested (n = 1421) and retrospective (n = 690) cohorts were used for validation and outcomes, respectively. Results: Patients 55–64 years and ≥65 years with a class 1A (low-risk) profile had SLN positivity rates of 4.9% and 1.6%. Class 2B (high-risk) patients had SLN positivity rates of 30.8% and 11.9%. Melanoma-specific survival was 99.3% for patients ≥55 years with class 1A, T1–T2 tumors and 55.0% for class 2B, SLN-positive, T1–T2 tumors. Conclusion: The 31-gene expression profile test identifies patients who could potentially avoid SLN biopsy.

Update on Molecular Testing for Cytologically Indeterminate Thyroid Nodules

Fine needle aspiration biopsy (FNAB) and ultrasonography are the most common modalities for the diagnosis and follow up of thyroid nodules. FNAB is able to distinguish benign from malignant nodules with high sensitivity and specificity; however, 20% to 30% of nodules are diagnosed as indeterminate with a risk of malignancy varying from 10% to 75% based on the 2017 revision of the Bethesda System for Reporting Thyroid Cytopathology. Molecular tests are being increasingly used to triage this group of nodules. Several molecular tests are commercially available and newer upgrades are being developed to either "rule in" or "rule out" malignancy with greater accuracy. The Afirma gene expression classifier and its recent upgrade (the Afirma gene sequencing classifier), Thryoseq v2, a next generation sequencing test and its recent upgrade (the v3), RosettaGX Reveal based on microRNA alterations, and ThyGenX/ThyraMIR, a combination test, are currently on the market. Familiarity with these tests, their performance, and postvalidation publications will enable appropriate test selection and improve triage of patients for appropriate therapy. The underlying rate of malignancy at different institutions and the interobserver variability in cytologic and histologic diagnosis of thyroid lesions are important factors that impact the performance of the various molecular tests.

Molecular Diagnostic Evaluation of Thyroid Nodules

The historical management approach for many patients with indeterminate thyroid nodule fine needle aspiration cytology is a diagnostic lobectomy or thyroidectomy. However, the majority of patients undergo surgery unnecessarily, because most are proven to have benign disease on histology. Molecular testing is a diagnostic tool that can be used to help guide the clinical management of thyroid nodules with indeterminate cytology results. Testing has evolved substantially over the last decade with significant advances in testing methodology and improvements in our understanding of the genetic basis of thyroid cancer.

A Proposal for Separation of Nuclear Atypia and Architectural Atypia in Bethesda Category III (AUS/FLUS) Based on Differing Rates of Thyroid Malignancy

Objectives

Bethesda category III (atypia of undetermined significance/follicular lesion of undetermined significance) includes sparsely cellular specimens with nuclear atypia (3N) and/or architectural atypia (3A). This study investigates whether the two types of atypia have different rates of malignancy (ROMs).

Methods

Cytologic and histologic diagnoses of resected thyroid nodules were recorded. ROM was calculated for all Bethesda categories and for 3N and 3A subcategories. Possible noninvasive follicular thyroid neoplasms with papillary-like nuclear features were reviewed and removed from malignancies, and ROM was recalculated.

Results

A total of 1,396 nodules were included. ROM of 3N (33.3%-26.0%) was higher than 3A (7.7%-5.0%) (P < .0001) and was similar to suspicious for follicular neoplasm (25.0%-20.3%) (P = .3). ROM of 3A approached benign (2.4%-1.5%) (P = .02).

Conclusions

Strong consideration should be given to separating 3N (nuclear atypia with higher risk for papillary thyroid carcinoma) from 3A (architectural atypia with higher chance of being benign) to convey different ROMs.

Current controversies and future directions in the diagnosis and management of differentiated thyroid cancers

Despite the development of novel diagnostic, surgical, and chemotherapeutic approaches to differentiated thyroid cancers (DTCs), the diagnosis and management of these tumors remains controversial. The most recent American Thyroid Association (ATA) guidelines, released in 2015, reflect a recent shift towards less aggressive management for patients with DTCs. However, many clinicians have expressed concern that more conservative management will put patients at risk for disease recurrence and metastasis. In particular, the management of indeterminate nodules on fine needle aspiration (with special attention to genetic and epigenetic markers of malignancy), the extent of surgery for known differentiated cancers, the role of adjuvant radioactive iodine (RAI) therapy, and novel targeted treatments with tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) represent current areas of uncertainty and opportunities for future research. In this review, we examine the current state of the art in these areas, and address some of the questions that remain.

Outcomes of Bethesda categories III and IV thyroid nodules over 5 years and performance of the Afirma gene expression classifier: A single-institution study

OBJECTIVE

The second edition Bethesda System for Reporting Thyroid Cytology estimates 6%-18% malignancy rate of category III (B3) and 10%-40% for category IV (B4) nodules; however, reported malignancy rates have considerable variability among institutions. Use of molecular classifiers (including Afirma Gene Expression Classifier, GEC) can be utilized in management of thyroid nodules. Our objective was to analyse malignancy rates of B3 and B4 nodules and determine clinical outcomes of GEC Benign nodules.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of 2019 thyroid FNAs was performed at the University of Colorado from 2011 to 2015, including molecular, surgical and clinical follow-up.

RESULTS

Of 2019 FNAs analysed, 231 (11.4%) were diagnosed as B3 and 80 (4.0%) as B4. GEC was obtained in 54.1% of B3 cases, with nearly half (48.8%) having a Benign result. Surgery was performed in 40.7% B3 cases with a 24.5% malignancy rate, ranging 8%-38% by year. In the B4 group, 52.5% underwent molecular testing with 28.6% as GEC Benign. About 68.8% of B4 cases underwent surgery with a 20% malignancy rate, ranging 0%-42% by year. Seventy-three GEC Benign cases were reviewed: 5 (6.8%) underwent surgery, with none demonstrating malignancy in the target nodule. Size remained stable for most GEC Benign nodules: 75.9% (B3) and 71.4% (B4) with no malignancy on repeat FNA.

CONCLUSIONS

Our 5-year review demonstrated that malignancy rates of B3 and B4 nodules showed year-to-year variability. We suggest that clinicians use a multi-year average of their institution's malignancy rates to optimally manage patients. Follow-up for GEC Benign cases thus far supports their indolent nature.

COMMUNITY ENDOCRINE SURGICAL EXPERIENCE WITH FALSE-NEGATIVE AFIRMA GEC® RESULTS: 2011-2017

OBJECTIVE

Afirma Gene Expression Classifier^® (Afirma GEC) molecular analysis (Veracyte, Inc, San Francisco, CA) is a negative predictive value test developed to reduce the number of thyroidectomies in thyroid nodule patients with indeterminate cytology. GEC technology has reportedly reduced unnecessary thyroid surgery, but few studies have examined Afirma GEC false-negative rates, since usually patients with GEC benign nodules do not undergo surgery for definitive diagnosis. Occasionally, Afirma GEC benign patients require removal of their thyroid nodules for other reasons; this work describes the incidence of malignancy and noninvasive follicular thyroid neoplasms with papillary-like nuclear features (NIFTP) in this population.

METHODS

We reviewed our community endocrine surgical practice database for patients who had undergone thyroid surgery from January 2011 through April 2017 despite benign Afirma GEC results.

RESULTS

Afirma GEC testing was completed for 475 patients during the study period. Surgery was clinically indicated for other reasons in 42 of the 193 patients (22%) with Afirma GEC benign results. Malignancy or NIFTP in the targeted nodule was found in the final histologic evaluation of 14 of the 42 Afirma GEC benign surgical patients. The Afirma GEC false-negative percentage for our incomplete surgical group (FNP-ISG), defined as the surgically proven false negatives divided by the total Afirma GEC benign patients, was 7.3%.

CONCLUSION

Our high surgical rate in Afirma GEC benign nodules reveals an FNP-ISG of 7.3% in our community endocrine surgical patient population; this value exceeds the 5.7% reported in the multicenter 2012 Afirma GEC validation study.

ABBREVIATIONS

Afirma GEC = Afirma Gene Expression Classifier; FNA = fine-needle aspiration; FNP = false-negative percentage; FNP-ISG = false-negative percentage for an incomplete surgical group; NIFTP = noninvasive follicular thyroid neoplasms with papillary-like nuclear features.

Impact of oncogene panel results on surgical management of cytologically indeterminate thyroid nodules

BACKGROUND

The impact of oncogene panel results on the surgical management of indeterminate thyroid nodules (ITNs) is currently unknown.

METHODS

Surgical management of 649 patients consecutively evaluated from October 2008 to April 2016 with a single nodule biopsied and indeterminate cytology (193 evaluated with and 456 without oncogene panels) was assessed and compared. Histological features of 629 consecutively resected ITNs (164 evaluated with and 465 without oncogene panels) were also characterized and compared.

RESULTS

Oncogene panel evaluation was associated with higher rates of total thyroidectomy (45% vs 28%; P = .006), and central lymph node dissection (19% vs 12%; P = .03) without increasing the yield of malignancy or decreasing the rate of completion thyroidectomy. Most malignancies (64%), including 83% of those with driver mutation identified, were low-risk cancers for which a lobectomy could have been sufficient initial treatment.

CONCLUSION

Current oncogene panel results seem insufficient to guide the surgical extent of solitary ITNs.

Diagnostic Utility of Molecular and Imaging Biomarkers in Cytological Indeterminate Thyroid Nodules

Indeterminate thyroid cytology (Bethesda III and IV) corresponds to follicular-patterned benign and malignant lesions, which are particularly difficult to differentiate on cytology alone. As ~25% of these nodules harbor malignancy, diagnostic hemithyroidectomy is still custom. However, advanced preoperative diagnostics are rapidly evolving.This review provides an overview of additional molecular and imaging diagnostics for indeterminate thyroid nodules in a preoperative clinical setting, including considerations regarding cost-effectiveness, availability, and feasibility of combining techniques. Addressed diagnostics include gene mutation analysis, microRNA, immunocytochemistry, ultrasonography, elastosonography, computed tomography, sestamibi scintigraphy, [18F]-2-fluoro-2-deoxy-d-glucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET), and diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging.The best rule-out tests for malignancy were the Afirma® gene expression classifier and FDG-PET. The most accurate rule-in test was sole BRAF mutation analysis. No diagnostic had both near-perfect sensitivity and specificity, and estimated cost-effectiveness. Molecular techniques are rapidly advancing. However, given the currently available techniques, a multimodality stepwise approach likely offers the most accurate diagnosis, sequentially applying one sensitive rule-out test and one specific rule-in test. Geographical variations in cytology (e.g., Hürthle cell neoplasms) and tumor genetics strongly influence local test performance and clinical utility. Multidisciplinary collaboration and implementation studies can aid the local decision for one or more eligible diagnostics.

Shear wave elastography and Afirma™ gene expression classifier in thyroid nodules with indeterminate cytology: a comparison study

PURPOSE

To compare shear wave elastography (SWE) and Afirma™ gene expression classifier (GEC) for diagnosis of malignancy in thyroid nodules (TNs) with Bethesda Classification (BC) III or IV indeterminate cytology.

METHODS

This preliminary single-center prospective study was approved by the Institutional Review Board. We evaluated 151 consented patients with 151 indeterminate TNs (123 BC III, 28 BC IV) on fine-needle aspiration biopsy (FNAB). B-mode ultrasound, vascularity, and SWE were performed prior to FNAB. TN stiffness was measured as shear wave velocity (SWV) in meters per second (m/s). The stiffest area of the TN was selected for SWV measurement. GEC testing was performed with a second FNAB. Surgery was recommended for GEC-suspicious TNs, or GEC-benign TNs with two or more worrisome B-mode US features.

RESULTS

Surgical pathology confirmed 31 malignant TNs. Among the GEC-suspicious group, 28 of 59 TNs were malignant. The SWV value of ≥3.59 m/s was the best cut-off for malignancy risk based on the receiver operating curve (ROC). Twenty-six malignant TNs had SWV ≥ 3.59 m/s. The sensitivity and specificity for SWV ≥ 3.59 m/s were 83.9 and 79.2%, respectively. Positive predictive value (PPV) was 51.0% and negative predictive value (NPV) was 95.0%. For the GEC-suspicious group, sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV were 90.3, 74.2, 47.5, and 96.7%, respectively. In multivariate analysis, SWV and GEC-suspicious were significant predictors of malignancy, but B-mode features and vascularity were not.

CONCLUSION

This preliminary study indicates that SWE and GEC are independent predictors of malignancy in TNs with BC III or IV.