Tumor Grade Predicts for Calcitonin Doubling Times and Disease-Specific Outcomes After Resection of Medullary Thyroid Carcinoma

A Competing Risk Nomogram for Prediction of Prognosis in Patients With Primary Squamous Cell Thyroid Carcinoma

Objective: Primary squamous cell thyroid carcinoma (PSCTC) is an extremely rare carcinoma, accounting for less than 1% of all thyroid carcinomas. However, the factors contributing to PSCTC outcomes remain unclear. This study aimed to identify the prognostic factors and develop a prognostic predictive model for patients with PSCTC. Methods: The analysis included patients diagnosed with thyroid carcinoma between 1975 and 2016 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Prognostic differences among the 5 pathological types of thyroid carcinomas were analyzed. To determine prognostic factors in PSCTC patients, the Cox regression model and Fine-Gray competing risk model were utilized. Based on the Fine-Gray competing risk model, a nomogram was established for predicting the prognosis of patients with PSCTC. Results: A total of 198,757 thyroid carcinoma patients, including 218 PSCTC patients, were identified. We found that PSCTC and anaplastic thyroid cancer had the worst prognosis among the 5 pathological types of thyroid carcinoma (P < .001). According to univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses, age (71-95 years) was an independent risk factor for poorer overall survival and disease-specific survival in PSCTC patients. Using Fine-Gray regression analysis, the total number of in situ/malignant tumors for patient (Number 1) (≥2) was identified as an independent protective factor for prognosis of PSCTC. The area under the curve, the concordance index (C-index), calibration curves and decision curve analysis revealed that the nomogram was capable of predicting the prognosis of PSCTC patients accurately. Conclusion: The competing risk nomogram is highly accurate in predicting prognosis for patients with PSCTC, which may help clinicians to optimize individualized treatment decisions.

Update on C-Cell Neuroendocrine Neoplasm: Prognostic and Predictive Histopathologic and Molecular Features of Medullary Thyroid Carcinoma

Medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC) is a C-cell-derived epithelial neuroendocrine neoplasm. With the exception of rare examples, most are well-differentiated epithelial neuroendocrine neoplasms (also known as neuroendocrine tumors in the taxonomy of the International Agency for Research on Cancer [IARC] of the World Health Organization [WHO]). This review provides an overview and recent evidence-based data on the molecular genetics, disease risk stratification based on clinicopathologic variables including molecular profiling and histopathologic variables, and targeted molecular therapies in patients with advanced MTC. While MTC is not the only neuroendocrine neoplasm in the thyroid gland, other neuroendocrine neoplasms in the thyroid include intrathyroidal thymic neuroendocrine neoplasms, intrathyroidal parathyroid neoplasms, and primary thyroid paragangliomas as well as metastatic neuroendocrine neoplasms. Therefore, the first responsibility of a pathologist is to distinguish MTC from other mimics using appropriate biomarkers. The second responsibility includes meticulous assessment of the status of angioinvasion (defined as tumor cells invading through a vessel wall and forming tumor-fibrin complexes, or intravascular tumor cells admixed with fibrin/thrombus), tumor necrosis, proliferative rate (mitotic count and Ki67 labeling index), and tumor grade (low- or high-grade) along with the tumor stage and the resection margins. Given the morphologic and proliferative heterogeneity in these neoplasms, an exhaustive sampling is strongly recommended. Routine molecular testing for pathogenic germline RET variants is typically performed in all patients with a diagnosis of MTC; however, multifocal C-cell hyperplasia in association with at least a single focus of MTC and/or multifocal C-cell neoplasia are morphological harbingers of germline RET alterations. It is of interest to assess the status of pathogenic molecular alterations involving genes other than RET like the MET variants in MTC families with no pathogenic germline RET variants. Furthermore, the status of somatic RET alterations should be determined in all advanced/progressive or metastatic diseases, especially when selective RET inhibitor therapy (e.g., selpercatinib or pralsetinib) is considered. While the role of routine SSTR2/5 immunohistochemistry remains to be further clarified, evidence suggests that patients with somatostatin receptor (SSTR)-avid metastatic disease may also benefit from the option of ¹⁷⁷Lu-DOTATATE peptide radionuclide receptor therapy. Finally, the authors of this review make a call to support the nomenclature change of MTC to C-cell neuroendocrine neoplasm to align this entity with the IARC/WHO taxonomy since MTCs represent epithelial neuroendocrine neoplasms of endoderm-derived C-cells.

Early postoperative calcitonin-to-preoperative calcitonin ratio as a predictive marker for structural recurrence in sporadic medullary thyroid cancer: A retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Calcitonin (Ctn) is widely used as a marker in the diagnosis, prognosis, and postoperative follow-up of patients with medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC). The prognostic value of postoperative calcitonin-to-preoperative calcitonin ratio (CR), reflecting the change in Ctn level of response to initial treatment, remains uncertain in long-term disease outcomes. This study aims to determine the cut-off value of CR for predicting structural recurrence and assess the prognostic role of CR in patients with MTC.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed patients with MTC in Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center (SYSUCC) between 2000 and 2022. CR is defined as the ratio of postoperative Ctn level on the day of discharge divided by preoperative Ctn level. In order to determine the optimal cut-off value of CR, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed. We evaluate the effect of CR on recurrence-free survival (RFS) by using the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox regression analysis. Then, a nomogram based on CR was constructed.

RESULTS

In total, 112 sporadic MTC patients were included in this study. The optimal cut-off value of CR that predicted disease recurrence was 0.125. Patients with CR≥0.125 showed significantly worse RFS than patients with CR <0.125, respectively (3-years RFS rate of 63.1 vs. 94.7%, 5-years RFS rate of 50.7 vs. 90.3%, P < 0.001). In the multivariate analysis, CR was the strongest independent predictor of structural recurrence (HR: 5.050, 95% CI: 2.247-11.349, P <0.001). Tumor size (HR: 1.321, 95% CI: 1.010-1.726, P =0.042), multifocality (HR: 2.258, 95% CI: 1.008-5.058, P =0.048) and metastasized lymph nodes (HR: 3.793, 95% CI: 1.617-8.897, P <0.001) were also independent predictors of structural recurrence. The uncorrected concordance index (c-index) of the nomogram was 0.827 (95% CI, 0.729-0.925) for RFS, and bias-corrected c-index were similar. As compared to TNM stage, the nomogram based on CR provided better discrimination accuracy.

CONCLUSIONS

We demonstrate that CR is a strong prognostic marker to predict structural recurrence in patients with sporadic MTC. The nomogram incorporating CR provided useful prediction of RFS for patients with sporadic MTC to provide personalized treatment.