Establishment of variation source and age-related reference interval models for 22 common biochemical analytes in older people using real-world big data mining

Development of next-generation reference interval models to establish reference intervals based on medical data: current status, algorithms and future consideration

Evidence derived from laboratory medicine plays a pivotal role in the diagnosis, treatment monitoring, and prognosis of various diseases. Reference intervals (RIs) are indispensable tools for assessing test results. The accuracy of clinical decision-making relies directly on the appropriateness of RIs. With the increase in real-world studies and advances in computational power, there has been increased interest in establishing RIs using big data. This approach has demonstrated cost-effectiveness and applicability across diverse scenarios, thereby enhancing the overall suitability of the RI to a certain extent. However, challenges persist when tests results are influenced by age and sex. Reliance on a single RI or a grouping of RIs based on age and sex can lead to erroneous interpretation of results with significant implications for clinical decision-making. To address this issue, the development of next generation of reference interval models has arisen at an historic moment. Such models establish a curve relationship to derive continuously changing reference intervals for test results across different age and sex categories. By automatically selecting appropriate RIs based on the age and sex of patients during result interpretation, this approach facilitates clinical decision-making and enhances disease diagnosis/treatment as well as health management practices. Development of next-generation reference interval models use direct or indirect sampling techniques to select reference individuals and then employed curve fitting methods such as splines, polynomial regression and others to establish continuous models. In light of these studies, several observations can be made: Firstly, to date, limited interest has been shown in developing next-generation reference interval models, with only a few models currently available. Secondly, there are a wide range of methods and algorithms for constructing such models, and their diversity may lead to confusion. Thirdly, the process of constructing next-generation reference interval models can be complex, particularly when employing indirect sampling techniques. At present, normative documents pertaining to the development of next-generation reference interval models are lacking. In summary, this review aims to provide an overview of the current state of development of next-generation reference interval models by defining them, highlighting inherent advantages, and addressing existing challenges. It also describes the process, advanced algorithms for model building, the tools required and the diagnosis and validation of models. Additionally, a discussion on the prospects of utilizing big data for developing next-generation reference interval models is presented. The ultimate objective is to equip clinical laboratories with the theoretical framework and practical tools necessary for developing and optimizing next-generation reference interval models to establish next-generation reference intervals while enhancing the use of medical data resources to facilitate precision medicine.

A preliminary study on the reference intervals of serum tumor marker in apparently healthy elderly population in southwestern China using real-world data

BACKGROUND

The aim is to establish and verify reference intervals (RIs) for serum tumor markers for an apparently healthy elderly population in Southwestern China using an indirect method.

METHODS

Data from 35,635 apparently healthy elderly individuals aged 60 years and above were obtained in West China Hospital from April 2020 to December 2021. We utilized the Box-Cox conversion combined with the Tukey method to normalize the data and eliminate outliers. Subgroups are divided according to gender and age to examine the division of RIs. The Z-test was used to compare differences between groups, and 95% distribution RIs were calculated using a nonparametric method.

RESULTS

In the study, we observed that the RIs for serum ferritin and Des-γ-carboxy prothrombin (DCP) were wider for men, ranging from 64.18 to 865.80 ng/ml and 14.00 to 33.00 mAU/ml, respectively, compared to women, whose ranges were 52.58 to 585.88 ng/ml and 13.00 to 29.00 mAU/ml. For other biomarkers, the overall RIs were established as follows: alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) 0-6.75 ng/ml, carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) 0-4.85 ng/ml, carbohydrate antigen15-3 (CA15-3) for females 0-22.00 U/ml, carbohydrate antigen19-9 (CA19-9) 0-28.10 U/ml, carbohydrate antigen125 (CA125) 0-20.96 U/ml, cytokeratin 19 fragment (CYFRA21-1) 0-4.66 U/ml, neuron-specific enolase (NSE) 0-19.41 ng/ml, total and free prostate-specific antigens (tPSA and fPSA) for males 0-5.26 ng/ml and 0-1.09 ng/ml. The RIs for all these biomarkers have been validated through our rigorous processes.

CONCLUSION

This study preliminarily established 95% RIs for an apparently healthy elderly population in Southwestern China. Using real-world data and an indirect method, simple and reliable RIs for an elderly population can be both established and verified, which are suitable for application in various clinical laboratories.

Age- and sex-specific 99th percentile upper reference limits for high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T in Chinese older people: Real-world data mining

BACKGROUND

This study aims to investigate the impact of age and sex on high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) and establish 99th percentile upper reference limits (URLs) in older individuals utilizing large-scale real-world data.

METHODS

40,530 outpatient hs-cTnT results were obtained from the laboratory database from January 1, 2018, to December 31, 2023. Our study included 4,199 elderly outpatients (aged ≥ 60) without cardiovascular disease or other heart-related chronic conditions. Nested analysis of variance was used to explore the necessity of partitioning reference intervals (RIs) by sex and age groups. RIs were established by the refineR algorithm and assessed based on ≤ 10% test results of validation data set outside the new RIs.

RESULTS

RIs for hs-cTnT in the older population needed to be partitioned by sex and age groups ([standard deviation ratio] SDRage = 0.75; SDRsex = 0.49). URLs in older Chinese adults were 21.8 ng/L for males, 16.5 ng/L for females, and 20.7 ng/L for the overall participant group. URLs for males aged 60-69, 70-79, and ≥ 80 were 13.7, 19.4, and 31.0 ng/L, respectively. Female values were 10.1, 17.2, and 22.0 ng/L. Importantly, manufacturer-reported RIs do not suffice for Chinese individuals aged ≥ 70. Validation data showed that 2.7-5.2% of test results fell outside the new RIs, confirming the validity of the results.

CONCLUSION

This study establishes age- and sex-specific 99th percentile URLs for hs-cTnT in Chinese older individuals, thereby enhancing the accuracy of clinical assessments.

Current status and challenges in establishing reference intervals based on real-world data

Reference intervals (RIs) are the cornerstone for evaluation of test results in clinical practice and are invaluable in judging patient health and making clinical decisions. Establishing RIs based on clinical laboratory data is a branch of real-world data mining research. Compared to the traditional direct method, this indirect approach is highly practical, widely applicable, and low-cost. Improving the accuracy of RIs requires not only the collection of sufficient data and the use of correct statistical methods, but also proper stratification of heterogeneous subpopulations. This includes the establishment of age-specific RIs and taking into account other characteristics of reference individuals. Although there are many studies on establishing RIs by indirect methods, it is still very difficult for laboratories to select appropriate statistical methods due to the lack of formal guidelines. This review describes the application of real-world data and an approach for establishing indirect reference intervals (iRIs). We summarize the processes for establishing iRIs using real-world data and analyze the principle and applicable scope of the indirect method model in detail. Moreover, we compare different methods for constructing growth curves to establish age-specific RIs, in hopes of providing laboratories with a reference for establishing specific iRIs and giving new insight into clinical laboratory RI research. (201 words).

Personalized reference intervals: from theory to practice

Using laboratory test results for diagnosis and monitoring requires a reliable reference to which the results can be compared. Currently, most reference data is derived from the population, and patients in this context are considered members of a population group rather than individuals. However, such reference data has limitations when used as the reference for an individual. A patient's test results preferably should be compared with their own, individualized reference intervals (RI), i.e. a personalized RI (prRI).The prRI is based on the homeostatic model and can be calculated using an individual's previous test results obtained in a steady-state situation and estimates of analytical (CV_A) and biological variation (BV). BV used to calculate the prRI can be obtained from the population (within-subject biological variation, CV_I) or an individual's own data (within-person biological variation, CV_P). Statistically, the prediction interval provides a useful tool to calculate the interval (i.e. prRI) for future observation based on previous measurements. With the development of information technology, the data of millions of patients is stored and processed in medical laboratories, allowing the implementation of personalized laboratory medicine. PrRI for each individual should be made available as part of the laboratory information system and should be continually updated as new test results become available.In this review, we summarize the limitations of population-based RI for the diagnosis and monitoring of disease, provide an outline of the prRI concept and different approaches to its determination, including statistical considerations for deriving prRI, and discuss aspects which must be further investigated prior to implementation of prRI in clinical practice.

Establishment of Reference Interval and Aging Model of Homocysteine Using Real-World Data

Objective

The level of Homocysteine (Hcy) in males is generally higher than that of females, but the same reference interval (RI) is often used in clinical practice. This study aims to establish a sex-specific RI of Hcy using five data mining algorithms and compare these results. Furthermore, age-related continuous RI was established in order to show the relationship between Hcy concentration distribution and age.

Methods

A total of 20,801 individuals were included in the study and Tukey method was used to identify outliers in subgroups by sex and age. Multiple linear regression and standard deviation ratio (SDR) was used to determine whether the RI for Hcy needs to be divided by sex and age. Five algorithms including Hoffmann, Bhattacharya, expectation maximization (EM), kosmic and refineR were utilized to establish the RI of Hcy. Generalized Additive Models for Location Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) algorithm was used to determine the aging model of Hcy and calculate the age-related continuous RI.

Results

RI of Hcy needed to be partitioned by sex (SDR = 0.735 > 0.375). RIs established by Hoffmann, Bhattacharya, EM (for females) and kosmic are all within the 95% CI of reference limits established by refine R. The Sex-specific aging model of Hcy showed that the upper limits of the RI of Hcy declined with age beginning at age of 18 and began to rise approximately after age of 40 for females and increased with age for males.

Conclusion

The RI of Hcy needs to be partitioned by sex. The RIs established by the five data mining algorithms showed good consistency. The dynamic sex and age-specific model of Hcy showed the pattern of Hcy concentration with age and provide more personalized tools for clinical decisions.

Big data and reference intervals

Although reference intervals (RIs) play an important role in clinical diagnosis, there remain significant differences with respect to race, gender, age and geographic location. Accordingly, the Clinical Laboratory Standards Institute (CLSI) EP28-A3c has recommended that clinical laboratories establish RIs appropriate to their subject population. Unfortunately, the traditional and direct approach to establish RIs relies on the recruitment of a sufficient number of healthy individuals of various age groups, collection and testing of large numbers of specimens and accurate data interpretation. The advent of the big data era has, however, created a unique opportunity to "mine" laboratory information. Unfortunately, this indirect method lacks standardization, consensus support and CLSI guidance. In this review we provide a historical perspective, comprehensively assess data processing and statistical methods, and post-verification analysis to validate this big data approach in establishing laboratory specific RIs.

Annual biological variation and personalized reference intervals of clinical chemistry and hematology analytes

OBJECTIVES

A large number of people undergo annual health checkup but accurate laboratory criterion for evaluating their health status is limited. The present study determined annual biological variation (BV) and derived parameters of common laboratory analytes in order to accurately evaluate the test results of the annual healthcare population.

METHODS

A total of 43 healthy individuals who had regular healthcare once a year for six consecutive years, were enrolled using physical, electrocardiogram, ultrasonography and laboratory. The annual BV data and derived parameters, such as reference change value (RCV) and index of individuality (II) were calculated and compared with weekly data. We used annual BV and homeostatic set point to calculate personalized reference intervals (RI_per) which were compared with population-based reference intervals (RI_pop).

RESULTS

We have established the annual within-subject BV (CV_I), RCV, II, RI_per of 24 commonly used clinical chemistry and hematology analytes for healthy individuals. Among the 18 comparable measurands, CV_I estimates of annual data for 11 measurands were significantly higher than the weekly data. Approximately 50% measurands of II were <0.6, the utility of their RI_pop were limited. The distribution range of RI_per for most measurands only copied small part of RI_pop with reference range index for 8 measurands <0.5.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with weekly BV, for annual healthcare individuals, annual BV and related parameters can provide more accurate evaluation of laboratory results. RI_per based on long-term BV data is very valuable for "personalized" diagnosis on annual health assessments.

Effect of sample size and the traditional parametric, nonparametric, and robust methods on the establishment of reference intervals: Evidence from real world data

Sample size and statistical methods are critical for establishing reference intervals (RIs) but they tend to be overlooked. In this study, we used R (3.6.3) to stratify the reference individuals by sex, and then stratified them using the random sampling method. Fourteen sub-data sets with a sample size of 40, 80, 120, 160, 200, 500, 800, 1000, 1500, 2000, 2500, 3000, 3500, and 4000 were extracted, respectively. The sex ratios of all sub-data sets were 1:1. Transformed parametric (using log transformation), nonparametric, and robust approaches as described in the Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute guidelines were adopted to establish the RIs and the 90% confidence interval of the thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) using data from the sub-data sets. The Bland-Altman plot was used to evaluate the consistency of the upper and lower limits of the RIs established using the three methods. The upper and lower limits of TSH RI tended to be stable starting from the data set with a sample size of 1500. The RIs established using the three methods were more consistent when using a sample size greater than or equal to 2000.