Determinants of fracture risk in a UK-population-based cohort of older women: a cross-sectional analysis of the Cohort for Skeletal Health in Bristol and Avon (COSHIBA)

Recent fall and high imminent risk of fracture in older men and women

BACKGROUND

despite fall history being a well-known risk factor for falls and fractures, the association between very recent falls and imminent fracture risk is not clearly elucidated.

OBJECTIVE

to study the very recent (<4 months) fall-related absolute risk of fractures in the following year.

METHODS

two large prospective cohort studies of women (Study of Osteoporotic Fractures [SOF]) and men (Osteoporotic Fractures in Men Study [MrOS]) aged 65 years or older were included. Data on falls were collected every 4 months, and the primary outcomes were any non-spine and hip fractures in the next 12 months.

RESULTS

a total of 9,704 women contributed 419,149, and 5,994 men contributed 223,885 four-monthly periods of observations during the 14.8-year SOF and 12.6-year MrOS follow-up. Falls within 4 months indicated a high risk of non-spine and hip fractures in the following year for both sexes; in women, a recent fall indicated an 8.1% absolute risk of a non-spine fracture within 1 year, a 2.5-fold higher risk than that in women without falls, a 2.5% absolute risk of hip fracture, and a 3.1-fold increased risk. Falls increased the risk of fractures regardless of whether a fracture occurred or not. Men had similar risk patterns, albeit with a lower absolute risk of fracture.

CONCLUSIONS

in older people, a fall within 4 months indicates a high risk of fracture in the next year, regardless of fracture occurrence. A recent fall warrants urgent evaluation and consideration of treatments to reduce the imminent risk of fractures.

A clinical tool to identify older women with back pain at high risk of osteoporotic vertebral fractures (Vfrac): a population-based cohort study with exploratory economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

osteoporotic vertebral fractures (OVFs) identify people at high risk of future fractures, but despite this, less than a third come to clinical attention. The objective of this study was to develop a clinical tool to aid health care professionals decide which older women with back pain should have a spinal radiograph.

METHODS

a population-based cohort of 1,635 women aged 65+ years with self-reported back pain in the previous 4 months were recruited from primary care. Exposure data were collected through self-completion questionnaires and physical examination, including descriptions of back pain and traditional risk factors for osteoporosis. Outcome was the presence/absence of OVFs on spinal radiographs. Logistic regression models identified independent predictors of OVFs, with the area under the (receiver operating) curve calculated for the final model, and a cut-point was identified.

RESULTS

mean age was 73.9 years and 209 (12.8%) had OVFs. The final Vfrac model comprised 15 predictors of OVF, with an AUC of 0.802 (95% CI: 0.764-0.840). Sensitivity was 72.4% and specificity was 72.9%. Vfrac identified 93% of those with more than one OVF and two-thirds of those with one OVF. Performance was enhanced by inclusion of self-reported back pain descriptors, removal of which reduced AUC to 0.742 (95% CI: 0.696-0.788) and sensitivity to 66.5%. Health economic modelling to support a future trial was favourable.

CONCLUSIONS

the Vfrac clinical tool appears to be valid and is improved by the addition of self-reported back pain symptoms. The tool now requires testing to establish real-world clinical and cost-effectiveness.

Impact of mild and moderate/severe vertebral fractures on physical activity: a prospective study of older women in the UK

Little is known about the long-term impact of vertebral fractures on physical activity. There is also uncertainty over the clinical significance of mild vertebral fracture. We showed that women with moderate/severe but not mild vertebral fracture do less walking duration and housework than those without fracture after 5.4 years of follow-up.

INTRODUCTION

Little is known about the long-term impact of vertebral fractures on physical activities. There is also uncertainty over the clinical significance of mild fracture. Therefore, the aim of this study was to evaluate the prospective association between vertebral fracture and future physical activity.

METHODS

This is a 5-year prospective study of a mixed community and secondary care cohort of women aged > 50 from the UK. Vertebral fractures were identified at baseline on radiographs or DXA-based Vertebral Fracture Assessment by a Quantitative Morphometric approach and defined as moderate/severe (≥ 25% height decrease) or mild (20-24.9% height decrease). Physical activity data were collected 5.4 years later by self-completion questionnaires. Multivariable logistic regression was used to determine the association between presence of fracture and various physical activities while adjusting for potential confounders.

RESULTS

Two hundred eighty-six women without, 58 with mild, and 69 with moderate/severe fracture were recruited. Those with mild and moderate/severe fracture were older than women without fracture and had more concomitant diseases at baseline. At 5.4 years follow-up, women with moderate/severe fracture self-reported shorter walking duration compared to those without fracture, even after adjusting for potential confounders (OR 2.96, 95%CI 1.11-7.88, P = 0.030). No independent association was seen between the presence of mild fractures and reduced physical activity at follow-up.

CONCLUSION

This is the first study of older women from the UK that explored the prospective association between vertebral fracture and physical activity duration. Moderate/severe fractures were associated with reduced walking duration. Mild fractures had no impact on future physical ability.

Habitual levels of higher, but not medium or low, impact physical activity are positively related to lower limb bone strength in older women: findings from a population-based study using accelerometers to classify impact magnitude

This study assessed the effect of accelerometry-measured higher impacts resulting from habitual weight-bearing activity on lower limb bone strength in older women. Despite higher impacts being experienced rarely in this population-based cohort, positive associations were observed between higher vertical impacts and lower limb bone size and strength.

INTRODUCTION

We investigated whether the benefit of habitual weight-bearing physical activity (PA) for lower limb bone strength in older women is explained by exposure to higher impacts, as previously suggested by observations in younger individuals.

METHODS

Four hundred and eight women from the Cohort for Skeletal Health in Bristol and Avon (COSHIBA), mean 76.8 years, wore tri-axial accelerometers at the waist for a mean of 5.4 days. Y-axis peaks were categorised, using previously identified cutoffs, as low (0.5-1.0 g), medium (1.0-1.5 g), and higher (≥1.5 g) impacts. Mid and distal peripheral quantitative computed tomography scans of the tibia and radius were performed, as were hip and lumbar spine Dual X-ray Absorptiometry (DXA) scans. Regressions between (log transformed) number of low, medium and high impacts, and bone outcomes were adjusted for artefact error grade, age, height, fat and lean mass and impacts in other bands.

RESULTS

Eight thousand eight hundred and nine (4047, 16,882) low impacts were observed during the measurement week, 345 (99, 764) medium impacts and 42 (17, 106) higher impacts (median with 25th and 75th quartiles). Higher vertical impacts were positively associated with lower limb bone strength as reflected by cross-sectional moment of inertia (CSMI) of the tibia [0.042 (0.012, 0.072) p = 0.01] and hip [0.067 (0.001, 0.133) p = 0.045] (beta coefficients show standard deviations change per doubling in impacts, with 95 % confidence interval). Higher impacts were positively associated with tibial periosteal circumference (PC) [0.015 (0.003, 0.027) p = 0.02], but unrelated to hip BMD. Equivalent positive associations were not seen for low or medium impacts.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite their rarity, habitual levels of higher impacts were positively associated with lower limb bone size and strength, whereas equivalent relationships were not seen for low or medium impacts.

Do subjective memory complaints predict falls, fractures and healthcare utilization? A two-year prospective study based on a cohort of older women recruited from primary care

OBJECTIVE

A proportion of older individuals report subjective memory complaints (SMCs), which can predict the development of cognitive impairment and dementia. Previous studies based on secondary care suggest that SMC is also associated with other adverse health consequences, including falls, fractures and increased healthcare utilization. In this study, we aimed to establish whether similar findings are observed in the wider population.

METHODS

Prospective analysis of the Cohort for Skeletal Health in Bristol and Avon, a population-based cohort recruited from primary care, was carried out. Data were collected by self-completion questionnaire at baseline and 2 years. SMC was assessed at baseline. Fractures, measures of falls, mobility and healthcare utilization were assessed 2 years later. A random 5% subsample of data was validated against electronic general practitioner records. Logistic regression was used to identify independent associations, following adjustment for a range of confounders assessed at baseline.

RESULTS

Data were available on 3184 women. Three hundred and fifty participants (11.0%) reported SMC. They were older (73.3 ± 4.5 vs 72.0 ± 4.2 years) and less mobile compared with those not reporting SMC. SMCs at baseline were associated with an increased risk of upper limb fractures over the following 2 years (OR 1.72, 95% CI 1.02-2.90). SMCs were also associated with an increased risk of falls (OR 1.83, 95% CI 1.41-2.38) and increased healthcare utilization (OR for hospital appointments 2.20, 95% CI 1.26-3.86). No association was observed with bone mineral density at any site.

CONCLUSIONS

Subjective memory complaints are important markers of adverse health outcomes and should prompt interventions to reduce fractures such as physiotherapy-led fall reduction programmes. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Feasibility and acceptability of using jumping mechanography to detect early components of sarcopenia in community-dwelling older women

OBJECTIVE

To determine the feasibility and acceptability of using peak power and force, measured by jumping mechanography (JM), to detect early age-related features of sarcopenia in older women.

METHODS

Community-dwelling women aged 71-87 years were recruited into this cross-sectional study. Physical function tests comprised the short physical performance battery (SPPB), grip strength and, if SPPB score≥6, JM. JM measured peak weight-adjusted power and force from two-footed jumps and one-legged hops respectively. Questionnaires assessed acceptability.

RESULTS

463 women were recruited; 37(8%) with SPPB⟨6 were ineligible for JM. Of 426 remaining, 359(84%) were able to perform ≥1 valid two-footed jump, 300(70%) completed ≥1 valid one-legged hop. No adverse events occurred. Only 14% reported discomfort. Discomfort related to JM performance, with inverse associations with both power and force (p⟨0.01). Peak power and force respectively explained 8% and 10% of variance in SPPB score (13% combined); only peak power explained additional variance in grip strength (17%).

CONCLUSIONS

Peak power and force explained a significant, but limited, proportion of variance in SPPB and grip strength. JM represents a safe and acceptable clinical tool for evaluating lower-limb muscle power and force in older women, detecting distinct components of muscle function, and possibly sarcopenia, compared to those evaluated by more established measures.

Natural history, reasons for, and impact of low/non-adherence to medications for osteoporosis in a cohort of community-dwelling older women already established on medication: a 2-year follow-up study

Approximately 15 % of older women on oral medications for osteoporosis could be considered for alternatives including parenteral therapies. Collection of data on socio-demographic/clinical variables is unlikely to be helpful in predicting low/non-adherence. Alternative approaches are needed to identify individuals at risk of low/non-adherence.

INTRODUCTION

This study aims to identify individual patient reasons for stopping medications for osteoporosis, and to investigate whether this can be predicted from knowledge about socio-demographic/clinical data, or whether alternative approaches need to be used.

METHODS

The Cohort for Skeletal Health in Bristol and Avon (COSHIBA) recruited 3200 older women from South West UK, of whom a proportion were on medications for osteoporosis at baseline. Information on self-reported adherence and reasons for low/non-adherence were collected at 6-monthly intervals over a 2-year period. Data was also collected on potential predictors of and impact of low/non-adherence.

RESULTS

Two hundred thirty-three of 3200 (7.3 %) women were on medications for osteoporosis at baseline. Mean length of time on treatment prior to enrolment was 46 months. Of those on osteoporosis medications, 94.9 % were on bisphosphonates; 8.5 % reported low adherence and 21.6 % stopped their medication completely over the 2-year follow-up period. Length of time on medication at baseline did not influence rates of low/non-adherence. Reasons for low/non-adherence to bisphosphonates included side effects (53.9 %), practical reasons such as forgetting to take them (18.0 %) and beliefs about medications (20.5 %). No convincing predictors of low/non-adherence were identified.

CONCLUSIONS

Approximately 15 % of older women on oral medications for osteoporosis could be considered for alternatives including parenteral therapies. This has important implications for healthcare provision. Collection of data on socio-demographic/clinical variables is unlikely to be helpful in predicting low/non-adherence. Alternative approaches are needed to identify individuals at risk of low/non-adherence to osteoporosis medications.

Risk factors for osteoporosis and factors related to the use of DXA in Norway

To evaluate the case-finding strategy for osteoporosis in Norway, a questionnaire concerning risk factors for osteoporosis and history of osteodensitometry was mailed to a population-based cohort of 6000 men and 6000 women. Suboptimal examination rates among high risk and reallocation of scanning capacity to seemingly low-risk individuals was found.

PURPOSE

In Norway, a case-finding strategy for osteoporosis has been used. No data exist regarding the efficacy of this approach. The aim was to examine the prevalence of risk factors for osteoporosis and factors related to the use of dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) in Norway.

METHODS

Questionnaires regarding previous history of DXA, risk factors for osteoporosis and fracture were sent to an age-stratified, nationwide cross-sectional sample of 6000 men and 6000 women aged 40-90 years, drawn from the Norwegian Civil Registration System.

RESULTS

Valid responses (6029) were included. Twenty-two point three percent of women and 3.8 % of men had been examined by DXA. Suboptimal examination rates among high risk (e.g., current/previous glucocorticoid treatment or previous low-energy fracture) and reallocation of scanning capacity to seemingly low-risk individuals was found. Of all DXA, 19.5 % were reported by women without any risk factor for osteoporosis, similarly by 16.2 % of men. Distance to DXA facilities and current smoking were inversely related to probability of reporting a DXA.

CONCLUSIONS

Suboptimal examination rates among high risk and reallocation of scanning capacity to seemingly low-risk individuals were found. Distance to DXA, current smoking, and male sex constituted possible barriers to the case-finding strategy employed. Cheap and more available diagnostic tools for osteoporosis are needed, and risk stratification tools should be employed more extensively.

Hip fracture in the elderly: a re-analysis of the EPIDOS study with causal Bayesian networks

Objectives

Hip fractures commonly result in permanent disability, institutionalization or death in elderly. Existing hip-fracture predicting tools are underused in clinical practice, partly due to their lack of intuitive interpretation. By use of a graphical layer, Bayesian network models could increase the attractiveness of fracture prediction tools. Our aim was to study the potential contribution of a causal Bayesian network in this clinical setting. A logistic regression was performed as a standard control approach to check the robustness of the causal Bayesian network approach.

Setting

EPIDOS is a multicenter study, conducted in an ambulatory care setting in five French cities between 1992 and 1996 and updated in 2010. The study included 7598 women aged 75 years or older, in which fractures were assessed quarterly during 4 years. A causal Bayesian network and a logistic regression were performed on EPIDOS data to describe major variables involved in hip fractures occurrences.

Results

Both models had similar association estimations and predictive performances. They detected gait speed and mineral bone density as variables the most involved in the fracture process. The causal Bayesian network showed that gait speed and bone mineral density were directly connected to fracture and seem to mediate the influence of all the other variables included in our model. The logistic regression approach detected multiple interactions involving psychotropic drug use, age and bone mineral density.

Conclusion

Both approaches retrieved similar variables as predictors of hip fractures. However, Bayesian network highlighted the whole web of relation between the variables involved in the analysis, suggesting a possible mechanism leading to hip fracture. According to the latter results, intervention focusing concomitantly on gait speed and bone mineral density may be necessary for an optimal prevention of hip fracture occurrence in elderly people.

The prevalence of falls in adults aged 40 years or older in an urban, German population. Results from a telephone survey

BACKGROUND

Single or frequent falls lead to increased morbidity due to fall-related injury, fear of falling, impairments in quality of life and loss of independence. To assess the impact of falls, prevalence data are essential.

METHODS

In 2006, a telephone survey was performed in a random sample of 1270 inhabitants of the city of Herne, Germany, aged 40 years or older. Participants were asked about falls during the previous 4 weeks and 6 and 12 months, respectively. A fall was defined as an unexpected event in which the individual comes to rest on the ground, floor or a lower level. Participants were also asked about pain and whether or not a medical diagnosis of osteoporosis had ever been made. Standardized prevalences and odds ratios (OR) with 95 % confidence interval are reported.

RESULTS

In total, 862 (67.9 %) adults participated. Participants were significantly older than non-participants and more often female than male. Prevalences standardized for the population of Herne for at least one fall within the previous 4 weeks or 12 months or two or more falls within 12 months, respectively, were 3.1 %, 12.1 %, and 4.5 %. Women were more often affected than men. A total of 2.3 % participants reported both at least one fall and a medical diagnosis of osteoporosis. The prevalence of falls increased with increasing age and was also related to musculoskeletal pain.

CONCLUSIONS

Our estimates indicate that single and multiple falls affect a substantial proportion of adults in the urban population. Risk groups such as older adults and females with osteoporosis might represent a target group when considering measures for fall prevention.

Vertebral fracture assessment (VFA) by lateral DXA scanning may be cost-effective when used as part of fracture liaison services or primary care screening

SUMMARY

We identified that use of VFA may be cost-effective in either selected women from primary care or women attending after a low trauma fracture.

INTRODUCTION

Lateral DXA scanning of the spine for vertebral fracture assessment (VFA) is used for research, but its wider role is unclear. We aimed to establish whether VFA is cost-effective in women based on two different scenarios: following a low-trauma fracture, and after screening of high-risk women identified in primary care.

METHODS

The fracture cohort (FC) consisted of 377 women and the primary care cohort (PCC) of 251. Vertebral fractures were identified on VFA images by quantitative morphometry (QM). Outcome was cost-effectiveness of VFA, based on predicted change in clinical management defined as the identification of a vertebral fracture in a patient who otherwise falls below the threshold for treatment. FRAX treatment thresholds assessed were (1) 20/3 % thresholds and (2) National Osteoporosis Guidelines Group (NOGG) thresholds.

RESULTS

As a result, 9.8 % from FC and 13.9 % from PCC were identified with vertebral fractures. Management was changed in 21 to 22/377 (5.6-5.8 %) in FC and 12 to 26/251 (4.8-10.4 %) from PCC depending on which thresholds were used. Sensitivity analyses identified medication adherence as the assumption which most influenced the model. The best-estimate cost-per-QALY for use of VFA in FC was £3,243 for 20/3 threshold and £2,130 for NOGG; for PCC, this was £7,831 for 20/3 and was cost-saving for NOGG. Further analyses to adjust for potential false-positive vertebral fracture identification with QM showed VFA was no longer cost-effective.

CONCLUSION

VFA appears to be cost-effective in routine clinical practise, particularly when relatively inaccurate methods of identification of vertebral fractures are used such as QM.

Frax prediction without BMD for assessment of osteoporotic fracture risk

OBJECTIVE

To compare Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) calculations with and without bone mineral density (BMD) in predicting the 10-year probability of hip and major osteoporotic fractures (MOF).

METHODS

A cross-sectional review of patients requiring screening for osteoporosis as part of their routine medical care was conducted. Postmenopausal women and men over 50 years of age who were never diagnosed with osteoporosis or treated with U.S. Food and Drug Administration-approved agents for osteoporosis were included. Height, weight, FRAX questionnaire, femoral neck BMD, and T-score data were obtained. FRAX scores with BMD (FRAX/BMD) and without BMD (FRAX) were calculated. Subjects were separated on the basis of identical and different treatment recommendations. Fracture risk factors were compared between groups using simple Student's t test analysis of numerical variables and Fisher's exact test analysis of binary variables.

RESULTS

Of 151 total subjects, 127 (84%) had identical fracture risk predictions with or without BMD included in the FRAX calculation. Thirty subjects met treatment criteria and 97 did not, but the FRAX prediction was the same with risk factors alone or with risk factors plus BMD. Age was the only risk factor that was significantly different between those with identical and different predictions (median age, 64.42 and 76.25 years, respectively; P<.001).

CONCLUSION

In most cases, FRAX alone provides the same prediction as FRAX with BMD. Younger age is more indicative of an identical prediction.

Clinical risk factors, bone density and fall history in the prediction of incident fracture among men and women

The FRAX(tr) algorithm uses clinical risk factors (CRF) and bone mineral density (BMD) to predict fracture risk but does not include falls history in the calculation. Using results from the Hertfordshire Cohort Study, we examined the relative contributions of CRFs, BMD and falls history to fracture prediction. We studied 2299 participants at a baseline clinic that included completion of a health questionnaire and anthropometric data. A mean of 5.5years later (range 2.9-8.8years) subjects completed a postal questionnaire detailing fall and fracture history. In a subset of 368 men and 407 women, bone densitometry was performed using a Hologic QDR 4500 instrument. There was a significantly increased risk of fracture in men and women with a previous fracture. A one standard deviation drop in femoral neck BMD was associated with a hazards ratio (HR) of incident fracture (adjusted for CRFs) of 1.92 (1.04-3.54) and 1.77 (1.16-2.71) in men and women respectively. A history of any fall since the age of 45years resulted in an unadjusted HR of fracture of 7.31 (3.78-14.14) and 8.56 (4.85-15.13) in men and women respectively. In a ROC curve analysis, the predictive capacity progressively increased as BMD and previous falls were added into an initial model using CRFs alone. Falls history is a further independent risk factor for fracture. Falls risk should be taken into consideration when assessing whether or not to commence medication for osteoporosis and should also alert the physician to the opportunity to target falls risk directly.

A retrospective population-based study of injury types among elderly in Taiwan

The aim of the article was to investigate the injury types and medical utilisations among patients more than 65 years in Taiwan. The data used in this study were obtained from the years 1997 to 2008 of the National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD). The patients with the age of 65 years and older as well as with ICM-9-CM discharge injury principal diagnoses 800-959 were included in this study. SPSS 18.0 was used for data analysis. The results showed that there were 518,601 older adults hospitalised because of injuries in the period of study. The average age among them was 76.1 years old and 51.7% of them were females. The common causes of injury were falls and motor vehicle accident. The average number of operations that patients received was one, and the average length of stay was 9.1 days. The total medical expenditure was over NT$ 28.9 billion, and the average expenditure was NT$ 55,738. The factors associated with deaths were sex, ages, co-morbidity disease, level of care, number of operations, length of stay, expenditure of medical care, injury types and causes of injury. This study concludes that in order to decrease the incident of injuries in elder patients, the education of preventing falls and traffic safety should be promoted continuously among elders.

Randomized controlled trial of a primary care-based screening program to identify older women with prevalent osteoporotic vertebral fractures: Cohort for Skeletal Health in Bristol and Avon (COSHIBA)

Approximately 12% of postmenopausal women have osteoporotic vertebral fractures (VFs); these are associated with excess morbidity and mortality and a high risk of future osteoporotic fractures. Despite this, less than one-third come to clinical attention, partly due to lack of clear clinical triggers for referral for spinal radiographs. The aim of this study was to investigate whether a novel primary care-based screening tool could be used to identify postmenopausal women with osteoporotic VFs and increase appropriate management of osteoporosis. A randomized controlled trial was undertaken in 15 general practices within the Bristol area of the UK. A total of 3200 women aged 65 to 80 years were enrolled, with no exclusion criteria. A simple screening tool was carried out by a nurse in primary care to identify women at high risk of osteoporotic VFs. All identified high-risk women were offered a diagnostic thoracolumbar radiograph. Radiographs were reported using standard National Health Service (NHS) reporting, with results sent back to each participant's general practitioner (GP). Participants in the control arm did not receive the screening tool or radiographs. The main outcome measure was self-reported prescription of medication for osteoporosis at 6 months with a random 5% subsample verified against electronic GP records. Secondary outcome was self-reported incidence of new fractures. Results showed that allocation to screening increased prescription of osteoporosis medications by 124% (odds ratio [OR] for prescription 2.24 at 6 months; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.16 to 4.33). Allocation to screening also reduced fracture incidence at 12-month follow-up (OR for new fracture 0.60; 95% CI, 0.35-1.03; p = 0.063), although this did not reach statistical significance. This study supports the use of a simple screening tool administered in primary care to increase appropriate prescription of medications for osteoporosis in postmenopausal women in the UK.

The invisible disease: making sense of an osteoporosis diagnosis in older age

Osteoporosis (low bone density) is a potentially serious disease which mainly affects women older than 50 years. National screening programs for osteoporosis are being developed in the United Kingdom. It is important to assess the psychological experience of receiving a positive diagnosis from a population-based screening program so that psychological distress does not outweigh medical benefits. Little research has been conducted in this field. In our study, we explored the experience of being diagnosed with osteoporosis following screening. We interviewed 10 women aged 68 to 79 who were recruited from a population-based osteoporosis screening trial. Four themes emerged from our interpretative phenomenological analysis of the interviews: osteoporosis is a routine medical condition, lack of physical evidence creates doubt, the mediating role of medical care, and protecting the self from distress. Our findings emphasize the complexity attached to receiving a positive screening result. We suggest considerations for health care providers.