Development and validation of nomograms for the prediction of low muscle mass and radiodensity in gastric cancer patients

Routine assessment of nutritional, functional and inflammatory criteria in patients with cancer: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

The review discusses the significant impact of cancer on patients, particularly focusing on cachexia - a condition marked by weight and lean tissue loss. This condition critically affects the nutritional status, quality of life, and treatment outcomes of cancer patients.

RESEARCH QUESTION

The review seeks to understand the effectiveness and necessity of routine clinical monitoring of cancer cachexia, and how it can aid in better therapeutic interventions.

METHODS

The systematic review followed a pre-defined protocol based on the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA)statement. A systematic search using specific keywords was conducted in PubMed and EMBASE databases on October 24, 2023, supplemented by citations from the original papers. The selection process involved screening titles and abstracts for relevance.

RESULTS

The review finds varying levels of effectiveness in the different measurement criteria used for monitoring cachexia. It highlights the potential of the Global Leadership Initiative on Malnutrition (GLIM) framework in defining and managing cancer cachexia, though noting some challenges in standardisation and implementation of measurements.

CONCLUSION

The present systematic review highlights the variability and lack of standardization in the application of GLIM criteria for monitoring cachexia in cancer patients. Despite these challenges, it will be important to determine the most efficacious clinically routine nutritional and inflammation assessments in the routine application of GLIM criteria assessment.

Impact of malnutrition and nutritional support after gastrectomy in patients with gastric cancer

Malnutrition, characterized by altered body composition and impaired function, is particularly prevalent among gastric cancer patients, affecting up to 60% of them. Malnutrition in these patients can manifest both before and after surgery, due to factors such as gastric outlet obstruction, cancer cachexia, and anatomical changes. Notably, total gastrectomy (TG) presents the most significant nutritional challenges. However, function-preserving gastrectomy, such as pylorus-preserving gastrectomy (PPG) and proximal gastrectomy (PG), have shown promise in improving nutritional outcomes. Effective nutritional risk screening and assessment are vital for identifying patients at risk. Nutritional support not only improves nutritional parameters but also reduces complications, enhances quality of life (QoL) and survival rates. Those unable to maintain more than 50% of the recommended intake for over 7 days are recommended for nutritional support. Common methods of nutritional support include oral nutrition supplements (ONS), enteral nutrition (EN), or parenteral nutrition (PN) depending on the patient's status. Effect of perioperative nutritional support remains controversial. Preoperative interventions including ONS and PN have shown mixed results, with selective benefits in patients with sarcopenia or hypoalbuminaemia, while impact of EN in gastric outlet obstruction patients have been positive. In contrast postoperative support appears to be consistent. Tube feeding after TG has shown improvements, and ONS have been effective in reducing weight loss and improving nutritional biomarkers. PN was also associated with benefits such as weight maintenance and QoL. This review explores the mechanisms, assessment, and clinical impact of malnutrition, emphasizing the importance of nutritional support in gastric cancer patients undergoing gastrectomy.

Factors associated with variability in skeletal muscle radiodensity in patients with metastatic cancer

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to explore factors associated with skeletal muscle radiodensity (SMD) variability in patients with metastatic cancer.

METHODS

This study included 393 patients (median age 61 y, 70% women) who had computed tomography (CT) scans within 30 days of inclusion in the study. SMD was evaluated from CT by averaging the Hounsfield unit value of the total muscle area. Skeletal muscle index (SMI), visceral adipose tissue index (VATI), subcutaneous adipose tissue index (SATI), and total adipose tissue index (TATI) were also assessed by CT. Additionally, age, sex, race/skin color, disease characteristics, comorbidities, inflammatory markers, handgrip strength (HGS), and body mass index (BMI) were recorded and evaluated in the linear regression analysis to identify factors associated with SMD variability.

RESULTS

Multivariate explanatory models having SMD as an independent variable were performed and included BMI (model 1, r2 = 0.699), TATI (model 2, r2 = 0.712) or VATI and SATI (model 3, r2 = 0.706) in addition to age, race/skin color, tumor site, kidney disease, serum albumin, HGS, and SMI as dependent variables. For all models, lower SMD was associated with higher age, BMI, and adiposity measurements, kidney disease, White race/skin color, and lower serum albumin, HGS, and SMI. The primary tumor site also contributed to changes in SMD in all models, specifically those located in the gastrointestinal tract, gynecologic, and bone and connective tissue.

CONCLUSION

In this group of patients with metastatic cancer, lower SMD was associated with older age, White race/skin color, and an overall worse clinical condition.

Body composition change indices combined with Prognostic Nutritional Index predicts the clinical outcomes of patients with gastric cancer treated with immune checkpoint inhibitor

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to investigate the prognostic significance of the Prognostic Nutritional Index (PNI) in conjunction with body composition change indices, namely subcutaneous fat area (SFA) and skeletal muscle index (SMI), with regard to clinical outcomes in patients with gastric cancer (GC) undergoing immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) treatment.

METHODS

This retrospective investigation encompassed patients with comprehensive clinical and pathological data, inclusive of portal phase enhanced CT images. Continuous variables underwent analysis utilizing the Student t-test or Mann-Whitney U-test, while categorical variables were assessed employing the Pearson chi-squared test or Fisher test. Survival outcomes were evaluated using Kaplan-Meier survival curves and the Log-rank test. Independent prognostic indicators were determined through Cox regression analysis, and a nomogram predicting survival probability for progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) was constructed.

RESULTS

Within the PNI-SFA groups, patients in Group 1 exhibited inferior PFS and OS compared to the other two groups. Similarly, among the PNI-SMI groups, Group 1 patients demonstrated poorer PFS and OS. PNI-SMI and Eosi were identified as independent prognostic factors through Cox regression analysis. Furthermore, positive associations with patient prognosis were observed for BMI, SAF, SMI, and PNI.

CONCLUSION

The comprehensive consideration of PNI-SFA and PNI-SMI proved to be a superior prognostic predictor for GC patients undergoing ICI treatment.

Ultrasound Muscle Evaluation for Predicting the Prognosis of Patients with Head and Neck Cancer: A Large-Scale and Multicenter Prospective Study

Head and neck cancer (HNC) is a prevalent and aggressive form of cancer with high mortality rates and significant implications for nutritional status. Accurate assessment of malnutrition in patients with HNC is crucial for optimizing treatment outcomes and improving survival rates. This study aimed to evaluate the use of ultrasound techniques for predicting nutritional status, malnutrition, and cancer outcomes in patients with HNC. A total of 494 patients with HNC were included in this cross-sectional observational study. Various tools and body composition measurements, including muscle mass and adipose tissue ultrasound evaluations, were implemented. Using regression models, we mainly found that high levels of RF-CSA (rectus femoris cross-sectional area) were associated with a decreased risk of malnutrition (as defined with GLIM criteria (OR = 0.81, 95% CI: 0.68-0.98); as defined with PG-SGA (OR = 0.78, 95% CI: 0.62-0.98)) and sarcopenia (OR = 0.64, 95% CI: 0.49-0.82) after being adjusted for age, sex, and BMI. To predict the importance of muscle mass ultrasound variables on the risk of mortality, a nomogram, a random forest, and decision tree models were conducted. RF-CSA was the most important variable under the random forest model. The obtained C-index for the nomogram was 0.704, and the Brier score was 16.8. With an RF-CSA < 2.7 (AUC of 0.653 (0.59-0.77)) as a split, the decision tree model classified up to 68% of patients as possessing a high probability of survival. According to the cut-off value of 2.7 cm2, patients with a low RF-CSA value lower than 2.7 cm2 had worse survival rates (p < 0.001). The findings of this study highlight the importance of implementing ultrasound tools, for accurate diagnoses and monitoring of malnutrition in patients with HNC. Adipose tissue ultrasound measurements were only weakly associated with malnutrition and not with sarcopenia, indicating that muscle mass is a more important indicator of overall health and nutritional status. These results have the potential to improve survival rates and quality of life by enabling early intervention and personalized nutritional management.

Sarcopenia and malignancies: epidemiology, clinical classification and implications

Sarcopenia is a progressive systemic skeletal muscle disorder characterized by a pathological decline in muscle strength, quantity, and quality, which frequently affects the elderly population. The majority of cancer patients are of advanced age. Patients may already have sarcopenia prior to cancer development, and those with cancer are prone to developing sarcopenia due to hypercatabolism, inflammation, reduced physical fitness, anorexia, adverse effects, and stress associated with anticancer therapy. Based on the timing, sarcopenia in patients with cancer can be categorized into three: pre-existing sarcopenia before the onset of cancer, sarcopenia related to cancer, and sarcopenia related to cancer treatment. Sarcopenia not only changes the body composition of patients with cancer but also increases the incidence of postoperative complications, reduces therapeutic efficacy, impairs quality of life, and results in shortened survival. Different therapeutic strategies are required to match the cancer status and physical condition of patients with different etiologies and stages of sarcopenia. Here, we present a comprehensive review of the epidemiology and diagnosis of sarcopenia in patients with cancer, elucidate the complex interactions between cancer and sarcopenia, and provide evidence-based strategies for sarcopenia management in these patients.

Skeletal muscle gauge prediction by a machine learning model in patients with colorectal cancer

OBJECTIVES

Skeletal muscle gauge (SMG) was recently introduced as an imaging indicator of sarcopenia. Computed tomography is essential for measuring SMG; thus, the use of SMG is limited to patients who undergo computed tomography. We aimed to develop a machine learning algorithm using clinical and inflammatory markers to predict SMG in patients with colorectal cancer.

METHODS

The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model was applied for variable selection and predictive signature building in the training set. The predictive accuracy of the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator model, defined as linear predictor (LP)-SMG, was compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and decision curve analysis in the test set.

RESULTS

A total of 1094 patients with colorectal cancer were enrolled and randomly categorized into training (n = 656) and test (n = 438) sets. Low SMG was identified in 142 (21.6%) and 90 (20.5%) patients in the training and test sets, respectively. According to multivariable analysis of the test sets, LP-SMG was identified as an independent predictor of low SMG (odds ratio = 1329.431; 95% CI, 271.684-7667.996; P < .001). Its predictive performance was similar in the training and test sets (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.846 versus 0.869; P = .427). In the test set, LP-SMG had better outcomes in predicting SMG than single clinical variables, such as sex, height, weight, and hemoglobin.

CONCLUSIONS

LP-SMG had superior performance than single variables in predicting low SMG. This machine learning model can be used as a screening tool to detect sarcopenic status without using computed tomography during the treatment period.

Sarcopenia prevalence in patients with cancer and association with adverse prognosis: A nationwide survey on common cancers

OBJECTIVE

Although previous studies have implicated the negative outcomes of sarcopenia, evidence is limited to one or a few types of cancer. The aim of this study was to evaluate the distribution and influencing factors of sarcopenia, and explore the relationship between sarcopenia and cancer prognosis in a large oncological population.

METHODS

This observational cohort study included patients diagnosed with malignant cancer between May 2011 and January 2019. Hematologic and anthropometric parameters were collected prospectively. Low skeletal muscle mass and radiodensity were diagnosed using clinical indicators, according to the two prediction models. The importance of potential risk factors for sarcopenia was estimated by subtracting the predicted degrees of freedom from the partial χ2 statistic. Hazard rates of death were calculated using the hazard function and Cox regression analyses.

RESULTS

We included 13 761 patients with cancer; the prevalence of sarcopenia was 33%. The median age was 58 y and 7135 patients (52%) were men. Patients with sarcopenia had a worse nutritional status and quality of life than those without sarcopenia. Age was the most important risk factor for sarcopenia compared with body mass index or TNM stage. Additionally, patients with sarcopenia had a significantly higher and earlier peak risk for mortality. After adjusting for baseline characteristics, sarcopenia was independently associated with mortality in the research population (hazard ratio, 1.429; P < 0.001) and most cancer types.

CONCLUSION

Age is the most important risk factor for sarcopenia even in patients with cancer. Sarcopenia is strongly associated with a poor quality of life and reduced overall survival.

Machine Learning-Based Prediction of Complications and Prolonged Hospitalization with the GLIM Criteria Combinations Containing Calf Circumference in Elderly Asian Patients

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Malnutrition is widely present and influences the prognosis of elderly inpatients, so it is helpful to be able to identify it with a convenient method. However, in the widely accepted criteria for malnutrition, the Global Leadership Initiative on Malnutrition (GLIM), a lot of metrics can be used to define the phenotypic and etiological criteria. To identify muscle mass reduction, anthropometric parameters such as calf circumference (CC) and hand grip strength (HGS) are preferable to other expensive methods in many situations because they are easy and inexpensive to measure, but their applicability needs to be verified in specific clinical scenarios. This study aims to verify the value of CC- and HGS-identified muscle loss in diagnosing malnutrition and predicting in-hospital complications (IHC) and prolonged length of hospital stay (PLOS) in elderly inpatients using machine learning methods.

METHODS

A sample of 7122 elderly inpatients who were enrolled in a previous multicenter cohort study in China were screened for eligibility for the current study and were then retrospectively diagnosed for malnutrition using 33 GLIM criteria that differ in their combinations of phenotypic and etiological criteria, in which CC or CC+HGS were used to identify muscle mass reduction. The diagnostic consistency with the subjective global assessment (SGA) criteria at admission was evaluated according to Kappa coefficients. The association and the predictive value of the GLIM-defined malnutrition with 30-day IHC and PLOS were evaluated with logistic regression and randomized forest models.

RESULTS

In total, 2526 inpatients (average age 74.63 ± 7.12 years) were enrolled in the current study. The prevalence of malnutrition identified by the 33 criteria combinations ranged from 3.3% to 27.2%. The main IHCs was infectious complications (2.5%). The Kappa coefficients ranged from 0.130 to 0.866. Logistic regression revealed that malnutrition was identified by 31 GLIM criteria combinations that were significantly associated with 30-day IHC, and 22 were significantly associated with PLOS. Random forest prediction revealed that GLIM 15 (unconscious weight loss + muscle mass reduction, combined with disease burden/inflammation) performs best in predicting IHC; GLIM 30 (unconscious weight loss + muscle mass reduction + BMI reduction, combined with disease burden/inflammation) performs best in predicting PLOS. Importantly, CC alone performs better than CC+HGS in the criteria combinations for predicting adverse clinical outcomes.

CONCLUSION

Muscle mass reduction defined by a reduced CC performs well in the GLIM criteria combinations for diagnosing malnutrition and predicting IHC and PLOS in elderly Asian inpatients. The applicability of other anthropometric parameters in these applications needs to be further explored.

Relationship between circulating tumour DNA and skeletal muscle stores at diagnosis of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma: a cross-sectional study

Low skeletal muscle index (SMI) and low skeletal muscle radiodensity (SMD) are associated with reduced survival time in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). The negative prognostic impact of low SMI and low SMD is often reported as independent of cancer stage when using traditional clinical staging tools. Therefore, this study sought to explore the relationship between a novel marker of tumour burden (circulating tumour DNA) and skeletal muscle abnormalities at diagnosis of PDAC. A retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted in patients who had plasma and tumour tissue samples stored in the Victorian Pancreatic Cancer Biobank (VPCB) at diagnosis of PDAC, between 2015 and 2020. Circulating tumour DNA (ctDNA) of patients with G12 and G13 KRAS mutations was detected and quantified. Pre-treatment SMI and SMD derived from analysis of diagnostic computed tomography imaging was tested for its association to presence and concentration of ctDNA, as well as conventional staging, and demographic variables. The study included 66 patients at PDAC diagnosis; 53% female, mean age 68.7 years (SD ± 10.9). Low SMI and low SMD were present in 69.7% and 62.1% of patients, respectively. Female gender was an independent risk factor for low SMI (OR 4.38, 95% CI 1.23-15.55, p = 0.022), and older age an independent risk factor for low SMD (OR 1.066, 95% CI 1.002-1.135, p = 0.044). No association between skeletal muscle stores and concentration of ctDNA (SMI r = - 0.163, p = 0.192; SMD r = 0.097, p = 0.438) or stage of disease according to conventional clinical staging [SMI F(3, 62) = 0.886, p = 0.453; SMD F(3, 62) = 0.717, p = 0.545] was observed. These results demonstrate that low SMI and low SMD are highly prevalent at diagnosis of PDAC, and suggest they are comorbidities of cancer rather than related to the clinical stage of disease. Future studies are needed to identify the mechanisms and risk factors for low SMI and low SMD at diagnosis of PDAC to aid screening and intervention development.

Ultrasound Assessment of the Rectus Femoris in Patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Predicts Sarcopenia

PURPOSE

Sarcopenia, an age-related loss of skeletal muscle mass and function, is frequent in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and is linked to a poor prognosis. The diagnosis of sarcopenia requires specific equipment and is inconvenient to introduce into clinical practice. Ultrasound is an innovative method to assess muscle quantity. The objective of this research was to evaluate the use of ultrasound for prospectively screening for sarcopenia in COPD patients.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A total of 235 stable patients with COPD were included in this observational study and divided into development and validation sets. The Asian Working Group for Sarcopenia standards were used to define sarcopenia. The thickness (RF_thick) and cross-sectional area (RF_csa) of the rectus femoris were measured using ultrasound. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis of RF_thick and RF_csa was used to predict sarcopenia. Nomogram models were constructed based on RF_thick, RF_csa, age and body mass index to identify sarcopenia.

RESULTS

Sarcopenia was present in 83 (35.32%) patients. Patients with sarcopenia had advanced age, decreased pulmonary function, decreased physical function and poor clinical outcomes. RF_thick and RF_csa showed good predictive ability for sarcopenia in the development and validation sets. The nomogram based on RF_thick and RF_csa could detect sarcopenia in COPD patients, and all had significant predictive performance in the development and validation sets. The calibration plot showed good agreement between the nomogram predictions and actual observations.

CONCLUSION

The ultrasound measurement of the rectus femoris has potential for the clinical assessment of sarcopenia in patients with COPD.

Comparison of three malnutrition risk screening tools in identifying malnutrition according to Global Leadership Initiative on Malnutrition criteria in gastrointestinal cancer

Background

Malnutrition is common in patients with gastrointestinal cancer. The first step in the diagnosis of malnutrition is to evaluate the malnutrition risk by validated screening tools according to the Global Leadership Initiative on Malnutrition (GLIM). This study aimed to determine the best nutritional screening tool for identifying GLIM malnutrition and validate the performance of these tools in different age subgroups.

Materials and methods

We did a prospective cohort study of patients who were diagnosed with gastrointestinal cancer from February 2016 to November 2019. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive values (PPV), negative predictive values (NPV), and area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) of three screening tools (Nutritional risk screening 2002 (NRS 2002), Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index (GNRI), MNA-SF) were calculated.

Results

A total of 488 patients were enrolled, and 138 patients (28.27%) were malnutrition according to the GLIM criteria. The consistency of NRS 2002, GNRI, and MNA-SF with GLIM-defined malnutrition was 74.8, 72.1, and 71.1%, respectively. In the subgroup analysis of young patients (<65 years), NRS 2002 exhibited the best discrimination with the AUC of 0.724 (95% CI, 0.567–0.882), the sensitivity of 64.3% (95% CI, 35.6–86.0), and the specificity of 80.6% (95% CI, 69.2–88.6). In patients older than 65 years, MNA-SF exhibited the best discrimination with the AUC of 0.764 (95% CI, 0.714–0.814), the sensitivity of 82.3% (95% CI, 74.1–88.3), and the specificity of 70.5% (95% CI, 64.7–75.7).

Conclusions

Nutritional risk screening 2002 (NRS 2002) is the best malnutrition screening tool in gastrointestinal cancer patients younger than 65 years, and MNA-SF is the best malnutrition screening tool in patients older than 65 years. It is necessary to select targeted nutritional screening tools according to the difference in age.

The Impact and Clinical Prediction of Hyperglycemia During Parenteral Nutrition for Nondiabetic Patients After Gastrectomy for Gastric Cancer

Background and Purpose

Hyperglycemia (HG) is associated with increased postoperative complications. This study aims to evaluate the effect of HG during supplemental parenteral nutrition (SPN) on short-term prognosis in non-diabetic patients undergoing gastrectomy for cancer and to analyse the risk factors and prevention methods for HG.

Methods

A total of 359 patients were divided into three groups according to blood glucose (BG) during SPN: normoglycemic patients ( ≤ 125 mg/dL), mild HG (125~200 mg/dL), and severe HG (>200 mg/dL). The effect of BG on postoperative short-term outcomes was analyzed. Multivariate regression was performed to investigate influencing factors for severe HG. The safety and efficacy of insulin addition to total nutrient admixture (TNA) for the prevention and management of HG were assessed by propensity score matching (PSM). In addition, regression analysis was performed in the noninsulin group to investigate the predictive factors of severe HG, and a nomogram was plotted.

Results

The postoperative complication rate was 18.9%, but it was significantly higher in patients with severe HG than in mild HG and normoglycemic patients (25.2, 15.0, and 10.0%, respectively, p < 0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that anemia, myosteatosis, higher postoperative capillary blood glucose (CBG) before TNA infusion, and insulin in the TNA were independent influencing factors for severe HG. Based on the above factors, 75 pairs of patients (insulin group and non-insulin group) with comparable baseline data were successfully matched by PSM. The HG incidence and the glycemic fluctuation were significantly improved through 1 U insulin/6 g glucose (1/6 scheme) to TNA. A nomogram containing hemoglobin, skeletal muscle radiodensity, pre-SPN CBG, and pTNM stage with good predictive efficacy (C-index: 0.750) was constructed based on the noninsulin group.

Conclusion

Poor postoperative glycemic control was related to worse outcomes in non-diabetic patients undergoing gastrectomy for cancer. Pre-operative anemia, myosteatosis, and high postoperative CBG before TNA infusion are risk factors for severe HG. Insulin in TNA can improve the blood glucose control of patients. Our proposed nomogram rendered an individualized predictive tool for HG during SPN, which helps screen high-risk patients requiring insulin therapy. Future studies with larger samples are needed to develop a complete insulin application protocol for SPN.

Can the Risk of Postoperative Cerebrospinal Fluid Leakage Be Predicted for Patients Undergoing Cervical Spine Surgery? Development and Evaluation of a New Predictive Nomogram

OBJECTIVE

Previous studies have retrospectively analyzed the likely causes of cerebrospinal fluid leakage (CSFL) during cervical spine surgery and the management of CSFL after its occurrence. In the present study, we aimed to develop and validate a nomogram for the risk of CSFL in Chinese patients who had undergone cervical decompression and internal fixation (CDIF) surgery.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis of patients who had undergone CDIF surgery. Of the 1286 included patients, 54 were in the CSFL group and 1232 were in the normal group. The patients were randomly divided into training and validation tests. The risk assessment for CSFL included 21 characteristics. The feature selection for the CSFL model was optimized using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model in the training test. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to construct the model according to the selected characteristics. The clinical usefulness of the predictive model was assessed using the C-index, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis with identification and calibration.

RESULTS

The risk prediction nomogram included the diagnosis, revision surgery, ossification of the posterior longitudinal ligament, cervical instability, and a history of malignancy in the training test. The model demonstrated high predictive power, with a C-index of 0.914 (95% confidence interval, 0.876-0.951) and an area under the curve of 0.914. The results of the decision curve analysis demonstrated the clinical usefulness of the CSFL risk nomogram when the probability threshold for CSFL was 1%-62%.

CONCLUSIONS

Our proposed nomogram for CSFL risk includes the diagnosis, revision surgery, ossification of the posterior longitudinal ligament, cervical instability, and a history of malignancy. The nomogram can be used to evaluate the risk of CSFL for patients undergoing CDIF surgery.

Prognostic Score System Using Preoperative Inflammatory, Nutritional and Tumor Markers to Predict Prognosis for Gastric Cancer: A Two-Center Cohort Study

INTRODUCTION

Gastric cancer (GC) is the fourth leading cause of cancer-related death worldwide. Our study aimed to investigate the prognostic value of preoperative inflammatory, nutritional and tumor markers and develop an effective prognostic score system to predict the prognosis of GC patients.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed 1587 consecutive GC patients who received curative gastrectomy from two medical centers. A novel prognostic score system was proposed based on independently preoperative markers associated with overall survival (OS) of GC patients. A nomogram based on prognostic score system was further established and validated internally and externally.

RESULTS

Based on multivariate analysis in the training set, a novel BLC (body mass index-lymphocyte-carbohydrate antigen 19-9) score system was proposed, which showed an effective predictability of OS in GC patients (log-rank P < 0.001). Moreover, receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) analysis showed that BLC had better performance in predicting OS than the traditional prognostic markers. The C-index of the BLC based-nomogram was 0.710 (95% CI 0.686-0.734), and the areas under ROC curves for predicting 3- and 5-year OS were 0.781 (95% CI 0.750-0.813) and 0.755 (95% CI 0.723-0.786), respectively, which were higher than those of tumor node metastasis (TNM) staging system alone. The calibration curve for probability of 3- and 5-year OS rate showed a good fitting effect between prediction by nomogram and actual observation. Verification in the internal and external validation sets showed results consistent with those in the training set.

CONCLUSIONS

The BLC combining inflammatory, nutritional and tumor markers was an independent prognostic predictor for GC patients, and the nomogram based on BLC could accurately predict the personalized survival of patients with GC.