Mortality Rate in a Cohort of People Living With HIV in Rural Tanzania After Accounting for Unseen Deaths Among Those Lost to Follow-up

Correcting mortality estimates among children and youth on antiretroviral therapy in southern Africa: A comparative analysis between a multi-country tracing study and linkage to a health information exchange

OBJECTIVES

The objective of this study is to assess the outcomes of children, adolescents and young adults with HIV reported as lost to follow-up, correct mortality estimates for children, adolescents and young adults with HIV for unascertained outcomes in those loss to follow-up (LTFU) based on tracing and linkage data separately using data from the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS in Southern Africa.

METHODS

We included data from two different populations of children, adolescents and young adults with HIV; (1) clinical data from children, adolescents and young adults with HIV aged ≤24 years from Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe; (2) clinical data from children, adolescents and young adults with HIV aged ≤14 years from the Western Cape (WC) in South Africa. Outcomes of patients lost to follow-up were available from (1) a tracing study and (2) linkage to a health information exchange. For both populations, we compared six methods for correcting mortality estimates for all children, adolescents and young adults with HIV.

RESULTS

We found substantial variations of mortality estimates among children, adolescents and young adults with HIV reported as lost to follow-up versus those retained in care. Ascertained mortality was higher among lost and traceable children, adolescents and young adults with HIV and lower among lost and linkable than those retained in care (mortality: 13.4% [traced] vs. 12.6% [retained-other Southern Africa countries]; 3.4% [linked] vs. 9.4% [retained-WC]). A high proportion of lost to follow-up children, adolescents and young adults with HIV had self-transferred (21.0% and 47.0%) in the traced and linked samples, respectively. The uncorrected method of non-informative censoring yielded the lowest mortality estimates among all methods for both tracing (6.0%) and linkage (4.0%) approaches at 2 years from ART start. Among corrected methods using ascertained data, multiple imputation, incorporating ascertained data (MI(asc.)) and inverse probability weighting with logistic weights were most robust for the tracing approach. In contrast, for the linkage approach, MI(asc.) was the most robust.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings emphasise that lost to follow-up is non-ignorable and both tracing and linkage improved outcome ascertainment: tracing identified substantial mortality in those reported as lost to follow-up, whereas linkage did not identify out-of-facility deaths, but showed that a large proportion of those reported as lost to follow-up were self-transfers.

Estimating the mortality risk correcting for high loss to follow-up among female sex workers with HIV in Durban, South Africa, 2018-2021

PURPOSE

This study assesses risk factors of loss to follow-up (LTFU) and estimates mortality risk among female sex workers (FSW) with HIV in Durban, South Africa, in 2018-2021.

METHODS

We used data from the Siyaphambili trial, which evaluated strategies for improved viral suppression. FSW with HIV aged ≥ 18 years with viral load ≥ 50 copies/mL were followed up for 18 months. LTFU was defined as absence from study or intervention visits for 6 months. We traced LTFU participants by calling/in-person visit attempts to ascertain their vital status. We used Cox regression to determine risk factors of LTFU and inverse probability of tracing weights to correct mortality risk.

RESULTS

Of 777 participants, 10 (1.3%) had died and 578 (74.4%) were initially LTFU. Among those LTFU, 36.3% (210/578) were traced successfully, with 6 additional deaths ascertained. Recent physical and sexual violence, and non-viral suppression were associated with increased LTFU. The unweighted and weighted 18-month mortality risks were 2.4% (95% CI: 0.8%-3.9%) and 3.7% (95% CI: 1.8%-5.9%), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

LTFU is common among FSW with HIV in South Africa with additional investigation of vital status demonstrating under-ascertained mortality. These data suggest the need for comprehensively addressing risks for mortality among FSW.

Body mass index trends and its impact of under and overweight on outcome among PLHIV on antiretroviral treatment in rural Tanzania: A prospective cohort study

INTRODUCTION

Increased body weight is an important risk factor for cardiovascular disease and is increasingly reported as a health problem in people living with HIV (PLHIV). There is limited data from rural sub-Saharan Africa, where malnutrition usually presents with both over- and undernutrition. We aimed to determine the prevalence and risk factors of underweight and overweight/obesity in PLHIV enrolled in a cohort in rural Tanzania before the introduction of integrase inhibitors.

METHODS

This nested study of the prospective Kilombero and Ulanga Antiretroviral Cohort included adults aged ≥19 years initiated on antiretroviral therapy between 01/2013 and 12/2018 with follow-up through 06/2019. Body Mass Index (BMI) was classified as underweight (<18.5 kg/m2), normal (18.5-24.9 kg/m2), or overweight/obese (≥25.0 kg/m2). Stratified piecewise linear mixed models were used to assess the association between baseline characteristics and follow-up BMI. Cox proportional hazard models were used to assess the association between time-updated BMI and death/loss to follow-up (LTFU).

RESULTS

Among 2,129 patients, 22,027 BMI measurements (median 9 measurements: interquartile range 5-15) were analysed. At baseline, 398 (19%) patients were underweight and 356 (17%) were overweight/obese. The majority of patients were female (n = 1249; 59%), and aged 35-44 years (779; 37%). During the first 9 months, for every three additional months on antiretroviral therapy, BMI increased by 2% (95% confidence interval 1-2%, p<0.0001) among patients underweight at baseline and by 0.7% (0.5-0.6%, p<0.0001) among participants with normal BMI. Over a median of 20 months of follow-up, 107 (5%) patients died and 592 (28%) were LTFU. Being underweight was associated with >2 times the hazard of death/LTFU compared to participants with normal BMI.

CONCLUSION

We found a double burden of malnutrition, with underweight being an independent predictor of mortality. Monitoring and measures to address both states of malnutrition among PLHIV should be integrated into routine HIV care.

Persistent High Burden and Mortality Associated With Advanced HIV Disease in Rural Tanzania Despite Uptake of World Health Organization "Test and Treat" Guidelines

BACKGROUND

Information about burden, characteristics, predictors, and outcomes of advanced human immunodeficiency virus disease (AHD) is scarce in rural settings of sub-Saharan Africa. Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections and associated deaths remain high despite specific guidelines issued by the World Health Organization (WHO).

METHODS

Burden of AHD and 6-month death/loss to follow-up (LTFU) were described among 2498 antiretroviral therapy (ART)-naive nonpregnant people with HIV (PWH) aged >15 years enrolled in the Kilombero Ulanga Antiretroviral Cohort in rural Tanzania between 2013 and 2019. Baseline characteristics associated with AHD and predictors of death/LTFU among those with AHD were analyzed using multivariate logistic and Cox regression, respectively.

RESULTS

Of the PWH, 62.2% had AHD at diagnosis (66.8% before vs 55.7% after national uptake of WHO "test and treat" guidelines in 2016). At baseline, older age, male sex, lower body mass index, elevated aminotransferase aspartate levels, severe anemia, tachycardia, decreased glomerular filtration rate, clinical complaints, impaired functional status, and enrollment into care before 2018 were independently associated with AHD. Among people with AHD, incidence of mortality, and LTFU were 16 and 34 per 100 person-years, respectively. WHO clinical stage 3 or 4, CD4 counts <100 cells/µL, severe anemia, tachypnea, and liver disease were associated with death/LTFU.

CONCLUSIONS

More than 50% of PWH enrolled in our cohort after test and treat implementation still had AHD at diagnosis. Increasing HIV testing and uptake and implementation of the WHO-specific guidelines on AHD for prevention, diagnosis, treatment of opportunistic infections, and reducing the risks of LTFU are urgently needed to reduce morbidity and mortality.

Brief Report: Mortality After Loss to Follow-Up-A Linkage Study of People Living With HIV in Thailand and Malaysia

BACKGROUND

Linkage studies have reported high rates of previously unascertained mortality among people living with HIV (PLHIV) who have been lost to follow-up (LTFU). We assessed survival outcomes among PLHIV who were LTFU in Thailand and Malaysia, through linkages to a national death registry or HIV database.

METHODS

Data linkages with the national death registry or national HIV database were conducted in 2020 on all PLHIV who met LTFU criteria while enrolled in care at participating HIV clinical sites. LTFU was defined as having no documented clinical contact in the previous year, excluding transfers and deaths. Survival time was analyzed using the Cox regression, stratified by site.

RESULTS

Data linkages were performed for 489 PLHIV who had been LTFU at sites in Malaysia (n = 2) and Thailand (n = 4). There were 151 (31%) deaths after being LTFU; the mortality rate was 4.89 per 100 person-years. Risk factors for mortality after being LTFU were older age [41-50 years: hazard ratio (HR) = 1.99, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.08 to 3.68; and older than 50 years: HR = 4.93, 95% CI: 2.63 to 9.22; vs. age 30 years or younger]; receiving NRTI + PI (HR = 1.87, 95% CI: 1.22 to 2.85 vs. NRTI + NNRTI); positive hepatitis C antibody (HR = 2.25, 95% CI: 1.40 to 3.62); and having previous AIDS illness (HR = 1.45, 95% CI: 1.03 to 2.05). An improved survival was seen with a higher CD4 count (CD4 351-500 cells/µL: HR = 0.40, 95%CI: 0.21-0.76; and CD4 >500 cells/µL: HR = 0.43, 95%CI: 0.25-0.75; vs. CD4 ≤200 cells/µL).

CONCLUSIONS

Almost one-third of PLHIV who were LTFU in this cohort had died while out of care, emphasizing the importance of efforts to reengage PLHIV after they have been LTFU and ensure they have access to ongoing ART.

The Chronic Diseases Clinic of Ifakara (CDCI)—Establishing a Model Clinic for Chronic Care Delivery in Rural Sub-Saharan Africa

The rollout of antiretroviral drugs in sub-Saharan Africa to address the huge health impact of the HIV pandemic has been one of the largest projects undertaken in medical history and is an unprecedented medical success story. However, the path has been and still is characterized by many far reaching implementational challenges. Here, we report on the building and maintaining of a role model clinic in Ifakara, rural Southwestern Tanzania, within a collaborative project to support HIV services within the national program, training for staff and integrated research to better understand local needs and improve patients’ outcomes.

A Two-stage Approach for Rapid Assessment of the Proportion Achieving Viral Suppression Using Routine Clinical Data

BACKGROUND

Improving viral suppression among people with HIV reduces morbidity, mortality, and transmission. Accordingly, monitoring the proportion of patients with a suppressed viral load is important to optimizing HIV care and treatment programs. But viral load data are often incomplete in clinical records. We illustrate a two-stage approach to estimate the proportion of treated people with HIV who have a suppressed viral load in the Dominican Republic.

METHODS

Routinely collected data on viral load and patient characteristics were recorded in a national database, but 74% of patients on treatment at the time of the study did not have a recent viral load measurement. We recruited a subset of these patients for a rapid assessment that obtained additional viral load measurements. We combined results from the rapid assessment and main database using a two-stage weighting approach and compared results to estimates obtained using standard approaches to account for missing data.

RESULTS

Of patients with recent routinely collected viral load data, 60% had a suppressed viral load. Results were similar after applying standard approaches to account for missing data. Using the two-stage approach, we estimated that 77% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 74, 80) of those on treatment had a suppressed viral load.

CONCLUSIONS

When assessing the proportion of people on treatment with a suppressed viral load using routinely collected data, applying standard approaches to handle missing data may be inadequate. In these settings, augmenting routinely collected data with data collected through sampling-based approaches could allow more accurate and efficient monitoring of HIV treatment program effectiveness.

Causes of death and associated factors over a decade of follow-up in a cohort of people living with HIV in rural Tanzania

Background

Nearly half of HIV-related deaths occur in East and Southern Africa, yet data on causes of death (COD) are scarce. We determined COD and associated factors among people living with HIV (PLHIV) in rural Tanzania.

Methods

PLHIV attending the Chronic Diseases Clinic of Ifakara, Morogoro are invited to enrol in the Kilombero and Ulanga Antiretroviral Cohort (KIULARCO). Among adults (≥ 15 years) enrolled in 2005–2018, with follow-up through April 2019, we classified COD in comprehensive classes and as HIV- or non-HIV-related. In the subset of participants enrolled in 2013–2018 (when data were more complete), we assessed cause-specific mortality using cumulative incidences, and associated factors using proportional hazards models.

Results

Among 9871 adults (65% female, 26% CD4 count < 100 cells/mm³), 926 (9%) died, among whom COD were available for 474 (51%), with missing COD mainly in earlier years. The most common COD were tuberculosis (N = 127, 27%), non-AIDS-related infections (N = 72, 15%), and other AIDS-related infections (N = 59, 12%). Cardiovascular and renal deaths emerged as important COD in later calendar years, with 27% of deaths in 2018 attributable to cardiovascular causes. Most deaths (51%) occurred within the first six months following enrolment. Among 3956 participants enrolled in 2013–2018 (N = 203 deaths, 200 with COD ascertained), tuberculosis persisted as the most common COD (25%), but substantial proportions of deaths from six months after enrolment onwards were attributable to renal (14%), non-AIDS-related infections (13%), other AIDS-related infections (10%) and cardiovascular (10%) causes. Factors associated with higher HIV-related mortality were sex, younger age, living in Ifakara town, HIV status disclosure, hospitalisation, not being underweight, lower CD4 count, advanced WHO stage, and gaps in care. Factors associated with higher non-HIV-related mortality included not having an HIV-positive partner, lower CD4 count, advanced WHO stage, and gaps in care.

Conclusion

Incidence of HIV-related mortality was higher than that of non-HIV-related mortality, even in more recent years, likely due to late presentation. Tuberculosis was the leading specific COD identified, particularly soon after enrolment, while in later calendar years cardiovascular and renal causes emerged as important, emphasising the need for improved screening and management.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-021-06962-3.

Failure to return pillbox is a predictor of being lost to follow-up among people living with HIV on antiretroviral therapy in rural Tanzania

Objectives

Pill count is used to assess drug adherence in people living with HIV (PLHIV). Carrying a pillbox is associated with fear of concealment and stigma and might indicate poor adherence and predict someone who will be lost to follow‐up (LTFU). We therefore assessed the association between pillbox return and being LTFU in rural Tanzania.

Methods

This is a nested study of the Kilombero and Ulanga Antiretroviral Cohort (KIULARCO). We included PLHIV aged ≥ 18 years enrolled in KIULARCO between January 2013 and March 2019 with follow‐up through January 2020, who were on antiretroviral treatment (ART) for ≥ 6 months. Baseline was defined as the latest ART initiation or KIULARCO enrolment. We determined the association between time‐dependent failed pillbox return updated at every visit and LTFU using Kaplan–Meier estimation and Cox models.

Results

Among 2552 PLHIV included in the study, 1735 (68.0%) were female, 959 (40.3%) had a WHO stage III/IV and 1487 (66.4%) had a CD4 cell count < 350 cells/µL. The median age was 38.4 years [interquartile range (IQR): 31.7–46.2]. During a median follow‐up of 33.1 months (IQR: 17.5–52.4), 909 (35.6%) participants were LTFU, 43 (1.7%) died and 194 (7.6%) had transferred to another clinic. The probability of being LTFU was higher among PLHIV with failed pillbox return than among those who returned their pillbox [30.0%, 95% confidence interval (CI): 26.8–33.2% vs. 19.4%, 95% CI: 17.4–21.6%, respectively, at 24 months (hazard ratio = 1.67, 95% CI: 1.46–1.90; p < 0.001)].

Conclusions

Failed pillbox return was associated with a higher risk of being LTFU and could be used as a simple tool to identify PLHIV for appropriate interventions to reduce their chance of being LTFU.