The association between living through a prolonged economic depression and the male:female birth ratio--a longitudinal study from Cuba, 1960-2008

Projecting sex imbalances at birth at global, regional and national levels from 2021 to 2100: scenario-based Bayesian probabilistic projections of the sex ratio at birth and missing female births based on 3.26 billion birth records

INTRODUCTION

Skewed levels of the sex ratio at birth (SRB) due to sex-selective abortions have been observed in several countries since the 1970s. They will lead to long-term sex imbalances in more than one-third of the world's population with yet unknown social and economic impacts on affected countries. Understanding the potential evolution of sex imbalances at birth is therefore essential for anticipating and planning for changing sex structures across the world.

METHODS

We produced probabilistic SRB projections from 2021 to 2100 based on different scenarios of sex ratio transition and assessed their implications in terms of missing female births at global, regional and national levels. Based on a comprehensive SRB database with 3.26 billion birth records, we project the skewed SRB and missing female births with a Bayesian hierarchical time series mixture model. The SRB projections under reference scenario S1 assumed SRB transitions only for countries with strong statistical evidence of SRB inflation, and the more extreme scenario S2 assumed a sex ratio transition for countries at risk of SRB inflation but with no or limited evidence of ongoing inflation.

RESULTS

Under scenario S1, we projected 5.7 (95% uncertainty interval (1.2; 15.3)) million additional missing female births to occur by 2100. Countries affected will be those already affected in the past by imbalanced SRB, such as China and India. If all countries at risk of SRB inflation experience a sex ratio transition as in scenario S2, the projected missing female births increase to 22.1 (12.2; 39.8) million with a sizeable contribution of sub-Saharan Africa.

CONCLUSION

The scenario-based projections provide important illustrations of the potential burden of future prenatal sex discrimination and the need to monitor SRBs in countries with son preference. Policy planning will be needed in the years to come to minimise future prenatal sex discrimination and its impact on social structures.

The secondary sex ratio in Italy over the past eighty years (1940 to 2019) and potential impact of radiological contamination after atmospheric nuclear testing and after Chernobyl: Temporal change-point analysis using Markov Chain Monte Carlo

In Europe, the male to female ratio at birth (secondary sex ratio: SSR; sex odds: SO) is 1.04-1.06, is influenced by many factors and is declining in industrialized countries. This study was carried out to identify possible impacts of fallout by atomic bomb tests or by the Chernobyl event on SSR in Italy. Italy is a country without commercial nuclear power generation for the last four decades and thus nearly free of radiological confounders. Counts of annual male and female live births in Italy are provided by the World Health Organization (WHO) and by the Italian Istituto Nazionale di Statistica (ISTAT). This study included 57.7 million live births (1940-2019) with overall SSR 1.05829. The Italian SSR trend was modelled with linear and non-linear logistic regression. Trend changes, i.e., periods with level shifts were estimated with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Two distinct idealized level shifts were identified superimposed on a uniform secular downward trend. The first one is seen towards the end of the 1960s with a jump sex odds ratio (SOR) 1.00681, p < 0.0001. The second one occurred in 1987 with SOR 1.00474, p < 0.0001. In each of the 3 periods separated by the two jumps, SSR uniformly decreased with trend SOR per 100 years of 0.98549, p < 0.0001. In conclusion, the secular trend in the Italian SSR showed two marked level shifts, at the end of the 1960s and from 1987 onward. These follow the release of radioactivity by atmospheric atomic bomb tests during the 1960s and by Chernobyl in 1986 and corroborate the hypothesis that ionizing radiation increases SSR.

How does the two-child policy affect the sex ratio at birth in China? A cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

The One-Child Policy led to the imbalance of the sex ratio at birth (SRB) in China. After that, Two-Child Policy was introduced and gradually liberalized at three stages. If both the husband and wife of one couple were the only child of their parents, they were allowed to have two children in policy (BTCP). If only one of them was the only child, they were allowed to have two children in policy (OTCP). The Universal Two-Child Policy (UTCP) allowed every couple to have two children. The objective of this study was to explore the changing trend of SRB at the stages of Two-Child Policy, to analyze the effect of population policy on SRB in terms of maternal age, delivery mode, parity, maternal education, delivery hospital, and to figure out what factors have greater impact on the SRB.

METHODS

The data of the study came from Hebei Province Maternal Near Miss Surveillance System, covered the parturients delivered at 28 gestation weeks or more in 22 hospitals from January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2017. We compared the SRB at different policy stages, analyzed the relationship between the SRB and population policy by logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

Total 270,878 singleton deliveries were analyzed. The SRB, 1.084 at BTCP, 1.050 at OTCP, 1.047 at UTCP, declined rapidly (χ² = 15.97, P < 0.01). With the introduction of Two-Child Policy, the percentage of parturients who were 30-34, ≥35 years old rose significantly, and the percentage of multiparous women increased significantly (40.7, 47.2, 56.6%). The neonatal mortality declined significantly (8.4‰, 6.7‰, 5.9‰, χ² = 44.49, P < 0.01), the mortality rate of female infant gradually declined (48.2, 43.7, 43.9%). The logistic regression analysis showed the SRB was correlated to the three population policy stages in terms of maternal age, delivery mode, parity, maternal education, delivery hospital.

CONCLUSIONS

The SRB has declined to normal level with the gradually liberalizing of Two-Child Policy in China. Advanced maternal age, cesarean delivery, multiparous women, middle level education, rural hospital are the main factors of effect on the decline of the SRB.

What is the association between price and economic activity with cigarette consumption in Cuba from 1980 to 2014?

OBJECTIVES

Cuba is a tobacco-producing country that has been economically isolated as a consequence of an embargo imposed by the USA. It has also experienced a severe economic depression in the 1990s after the withdrawal of support by the former Soviet Union. These characteristics provide a unique opportunity to study the relation between large changes in economic activity, cigarette price and demand for cigarettes in a relatively isolated socialist economy.

STUDY DESIGN

This is an observational epidemiological study.

METHODS

Data were obtained on the annual price of a packet of cigarettes and the mean number of cigarettes consumed per adult living in Cuba from 1980 to 2014. Descriptive and regression analysis were used to explore the relationship between cigarette consumption and price in Cuba.

RESULTS

In 1980, the mean price of a packet of cigarettes was 1.53 Cuban peso (CUP) in 1997 prices and the mean annual per capita consumption was 2237 cigarettes. In 2014, the mean price had increased to 5.57 CUP (1997 prices) per packet of cigarettes, and consumption had fallen to 1527 cigarettes per capita. There were significant negative associations between annual cigarette consumption and both price and living through an economic depression. The elasticity was approximately -0.31 with price, and living through an economic depression was also associated with lower consumption of cigarettes (a reduction of 9%, 95% confidence intervals -0.18 to -0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Higher cigarette pricing, along with other public health interventions, are required to protect the national population from the adverse effects of tobacco smoke exposure.

A Future for Observational Epidemiology: Clarity, Credibility, Transparency

Observational studies are ambiguous, difficult, and necessary for epidemiology. Presently, there are concerns that the evidence produced by most observational studies in epidemiology is not credible and contributes to research waste. I argue that observational epidemiology could be improved by focusing greater attention on 1) defining questions that make clear whether the inferential goal is descriptive or causal; 2) greater utilization of quantitative bias analysis and alternative research designs that aim to decrease the strength of assumptions needed to estimate causal effects; and 3) promoting, experimenting with, and perhaps institutionalizing both reproducible research standards and replication studies to evaluate the fragility of study findings in epidemiology. Greater clarity, credibility, and transparency in observational epidemiology will help to provide reliable evidence that can serve as a basis for making decisions about clinical or population-health interventions.

Systematic assessment of the sex ratio at birth for all countries and estimation of national imbalances and regional reference levels

This study provides information on sex ratio at birth (SRB) reference levels and SRB imbalance. Using a comprehensive database and a Bayesian estimation model, we estimate that SRB reference levels are significantly different from the commonly assumed historical norm of 1.05 for most regions. We identify 12 countries with strong statistical evidence of SRB imbalance: Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, China, Georgia, Hong Kong (SAR of China), India, Republic of Korea, Montenegro, Taiwan (Province of China), Tunisia, and Vietnam.

The sex ratio at birth (SRB; ratio of male to female live births) imbalance in parts of the world over the past few decades is a direct consequence of sex-selective abortion, driven by the coexistence of son preference, readily available technology of prenatal sex determination, and fertility decline. Estimation of the degree of SRB imbalance is complicated because of unknown SRB reference levels and because of the uncertainty associated with SRB observations. There are needs for reproducible methods to construct SRB estimates with uncertainty, and to assess SRB inflation due to sex-selective abortion. We compile an extensive database from vital registration systems, censuses and surveys with 10,835 observations, and 16,602 country-years of information from 202 countries. We develop Bayesian methods for SRB estimation for all countries from 1950 to 2017. We model the SRB regional and national reference levels, the fluctuation around national reference levels, and the inflation. The estimated regional reference levels range from 1.031 (95% uncertainty interval [1.027; 1.036]) in sub-Saharan Africa to 1.063 [1.055; 1.072] in southeastern Asia, 1.063 [1.054; 1.072] in eastern Asia, and 1.067 [1.058; 1.077] in Oceania. We identify 12 countries with strong statistical evidence of SRB imbalance during 1970–2017, resulting in 23.1 [19.0; 28.3] million missing female births globally. The majority of those missing female births are in China, with 11.9 [8.5; 15.8] million, and in India, with 10.6 [8.0; 13.6] million.

Human sex ratio at birth and residential proximity to nuclear facilities in France

The possible detrimental genetic impact on humans living in the vicinity of nuclear facilities has been previously studied. We found evidence for an increase in the human secondary sex ratio (sex odds) within distances of up to 35km from nuclear facilities in Germany and Switzerland. Here, we extend our pilot investigations using new comprehensive data from France. The French data (1968-2011) account for 36,565 municipalities with 16,968,701 male and 16,145,925 female births. The overall sex ratio was 1.0510. Using linear and nonlinear logistic regression models with dummy variables coding for appropriately grouped municipalities, operation time periods, and corresponding spatiotemporal interactions, we consider the association between annual municipality-level birth sex ratios and minimum distances of municipalities from nuclear facilities. Within 35km from 28 nuclear sites in France, the sex ratio is increased relative to the rest of France with a sex odds ratio (SOR) of 1.0028, (95% CI: 1.0007, 1.0049). The detected association between municipalities' minimum distances from nuclear facilities and the sex ratio in France corroborates our findings for Germany and Switzerland.

Ionizing radiation and the human gender proportion at birth--A concise review of the literature and complementary analyses of historical and recent data

It has long been known that ionizing radiation causes genetic mutations and that nuclear bomb testing, nuclear accidents, and the regular and incidental emissions of nuclear facilities enhance environmental radioactivity. For this reason, the carcinogenic and genetic impact of ionizing radiation has been an escalating issue for environmental health and human health studies in the past decades. The Windscale fire (1957) and the Chernobyl accident (1986) caused alterations to the human birth sex ratio at national levels across Europe, and childhood cancer and childhood leukemia are consistently elevated near nuclear power plants. These findings are generalized and corroborated by the observation of increased sex ratios near nuclear facilities in Austria, France, Germany, Luxembourg, Switzerland, and The Netherlands. We present a concise review of the pertinent literature and we complement our review by spatiotemporal analyses of historical and most recent data. Evidence of genetic damage by elevated environmental radioactivity is provided.

Economic stress or random variation? Revisiting German reunification as a natural experiment to investigate the effect of economic contraction on sex ratios at birth

BACKGROUND

The economic stress hypothesis (ESH) predicts decreases in the sex ratio at birth (SRB) following economic decline. However, as many factors influence the SRB, this hypothesis is difficult to test empirically. Thus, researchers make use of quasi-experiments such as German reunification: The economy in East, but not in West Germany, underwent a rapid decline in 1991. A co-occurrence of a decline in the East German SRB in 1991 has been interpreted by some as support for the ESH. However, another explanation might be that the low SRB in 1991 stems from increased random variation in the East German SRB due to a drastically reduced number of births during the crisis. We look into this alternative random variation hypothesis (RVH) by re-examining the German case with more detailed data.

METHODS

Our analysis has two parts. First, using aggregate-level birth register data for all births in the period between 1946 and 2011, we plot the quantum and variance of the SRB and the number of births and unemployment rates, separately for East and West Germany, and conduct a time series analysis on the East German SRB over time. Second, we model the odds for a male birth at the individual level in a multiple logistic regression (1991-2010, ~13.9 million births). Explanatory variables are related to the level of the individual birth, the mother of the child born, and the regional economic context.

RESULTS

The aggregate-level analysis reveals a higher degree of variation of the SRB in East Germany. Deviations from the time trend occur in several years, seemingly unrelated to economic development, and the deviation in 1991 is not statistically significant. The individual-level analysis confirms that the 1991-drop in the East German SRB cannot directly be attributed to economic development and that there is no statistically significant effect of economic development on sex determination in East or West Germany.

CONCLUSION

Outcomes support the RVH but not the ESH. Furthermore, our results speak against a statistically significant effect of the reunification event itself on the East German SRB. We discuss the relative importance of behavioral and physiological responses to macro-level stressors, a distinction that may help integrate previously mixed findings.

The Chernobyl accident, the male to female ratio at birth and birth rates

INTRODUCTION

The male:female ratio at birth (male births divided by total live births - M/T) has been shown to increase in response to ionizing radiation due to gender-biased fetal loss, with excess female loss. M/T rose sharply in 1987 in central-eastern European countries following the Chernobyl accident in 1986. This study analyses M/T and births for the former Soviet Republics and for the countries most contaminated by the event.

METHODS

Annual birth data was obtained from the World Health Organisation. The countries with the highest exposure levels (by ¹³⁷Cs) were identified from an official publication of the International Atomic Energy Agency. All of the former Soviet states were also analysed and the periods before and after 1986 were compared.

RESULTS

Except for the Baltic States, all regions in the former USSR showed a significant rise in M/T from 1986. There were significant rises in M/T in the three most exposed (Belarus, Ukraine and the Russian Federation). The birth deficit in the post-Soviet states for the ten years following Chernobyl was estimated at 2,072,666, of which 1,087,924 are accounted by Belarus and Ukraine alone.

DISCUSSION

Chernobyl has resulted in the loss of millions of births, a process that has involved female even more than male fetuses. This is another and oft neglected consequence of widespread population radiation contamination.

The influence of migration on secular trends in sex ratios at birth in cuba in the past fifty years

BACKGROUND

Secular trends have been found in the male-female ratio at birth (M/F: male births divided by total births) in various countries and this ratio is anticipated to approximate 0.515.

METHODS

Annual national data for male and female live births in Cuba with contingency tables were obtained from the World Health Organisation and analysed.

RESULTS

There were 3 736 718 male and 3 534 270 female births (1960-96). Births declined steadily over the entire period. The male-female ratio at birth remained relatively stable over the period 1960-1985 with significant sharp dips for the years 1966, 1980 and 1985. There was a sharp rise in M/F from 1966 to 1969, another rise after 1985, a steep drop to 1989, and then a sharp rise once more after 1993 (all p < 0.0001).

CONCLUSION

The single year dips are associated with the passage of laws in the United States of America (USA) that facilitated Cuban entry to the USA. The increases in M/F tended to be associated with a skew toward an efflux from Cuba that was predominantly male. This paralleled the situation in the Second World War where a surplus of women left behind led to an increase in M/F in belligerent countries. To the author's knowledge, this is the first report of migration influencing M/F.

No evidence for sex biases in milk macronutrients, energy, or breastfeeding frequency in a sample of Filipino mothers

Maternal reproductive investment includes both the energetic costs of gestation and lactation. For most humans, the metabolic costs of lactation will exceed those of gestation. Mothers must balance reproductive investment in any single offspring against future reproductive potential. Among mammals broadly, mothers may differentially invest in offspring based on sex and maternal condition provided such differences investment influence future offspring reproductive success. For humans, there has been considerable debate if there are physiological differences in maternal investment by offspring sex. Two recent studies have suggested that milk composition differs by infant sex, with male infants receiving milk containing higher fat and energy; prior human studies have not reported sex-based differences in milk composition. This study investigates offspring sex-based differences in milk macronutrients, milk energy, and nursing frequency (per 24 h) in a sample of 103 Filipino mothers nursing infants less than 18 months of age. We found no differences in milk composition by infant sex. There were no significant differences in milk composition of mothers nursing first-born versus later-born sons or daughters or between high- and low-income mothers nursing daughters or sons. Nursing frequency also showed no significant differences by offspring sex, sex by birth order, or sex by maternal economic status. In the Cebu sample, there is no support for sex-based differences in reproductive investment during lactation as indexed by milk composition or nursing frequency. Further investigation in other populations is necessary to evaluate the potential for sex-based differences in milk composition among humans.

Increased sex ratio in Russia and Cuba after Chernobyl: a radiological hypothesis

BACKGROUND

The ratio of male to female offspring at birth may be a simple and non-invasive way to monitor the reproductive health of a population. Except in societies where selective abortion skews the sex ratio, approximately 105 boys are born for every 100 girls. Generally, the human sex ratio at birth is remarkably constant in large populations. After the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident in April 1986, a long lasting significant elevation in the sex ratio has been found in Russia, i.e. more boys or fewer girls compared to expectation were born. Recently, also for Cuba an escalated sex ratio from 1987 onward has been documented and discussed in the scientific literature.

PRESENTATION OF THE HYPOTHESIS

By the end of the eighties of the last century in Cuba as much as about 60% of the food imports were provided by the former Soviet Union. Due to its difficult economic situation, Cuba had neither the necessary insight nor the political strength to circumvent the detrimental genetic effects of imported radioactively contaminated foodstuffs after Chernobyl. We propose that the long term stable sex ratio increase in Cuba is essentially due to ionizing radiation.

TESTING OF THE HYPOTHESIS

A synoptic trend analysis of Russian and Cuban annual sex ratios discloses upward jumps in 1987. The estimated jump height from 1986 to 1987 in Russia measures 0.51% with a 95% confidence interval (0.28, 0.75), p value < 0.0001. In Cuba the estimated jump height measures 2.99% (2.39, 3.60), p value < 0.0001. The hypothesis may be tested by reconstruction of imports from the world markets to Cuba and by radiological analyses of remains in Cuba for Cs-137 and Sr-90.

IMPLICATIONS OF THE HYPOTHESIS

If the evidence for the hypothesis is strengthened, there is potential to learn about genetic radiation risks and to prevent similar effects in present and future exposure situations.

Impact of earthquakes on sex ratio at birth: Eastern Marmara earthquakes

OBJECTIVE

Previous reports suggest that maternal exposure to acute stress related to earthquakes affects the sex ratio at birth. Our aim was to examine the change in sex ratio at birth after Eastern Marmara earthquake disasters.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

This study was performed using the official birth statistics from January 1997 to December 2002 - before and after 17 August 1999, the date of the Golcuk Earthquake - supplied from the Turkey Statistics Institute. The secondary sex ratio was expressed as the male proportion at birth, and the ratio of both affected and unaffected areas were calculated and compared on a monthly basis using data from gender with using the Chi-square test.

RESULTS

We observed significant decreases in the secondary sex ratio in the 4th and 8th months following an earthquake in the affected region compared to the unaffected region (p= 0.001 and p= 0.024). In the earthquake region, the decrease observed in the secondary sex ratio during the 8th month after an earthquake was specific to the period after the earthquake.

CONCLUSION

Our study indicated a significant reduction in the secondary sex ratio after an earthquake. With these findings, events that cause sudden intense stress such as earthquakes can have an effect on the sex ratio at birth.

Invited commentary: Natural versus unnatural sex ratios--a quandary of modern times

The typical dilemma with sex-ratio findings is that when they are real, they aren't interesting, and when they are interesting, they aren't real. In this issue of the Journal, Fernández et al. (Am J Epidemiol. 2011;174(12):1327-1331) describe a deviation of the sex ratio that is apparently both large and real. There was a temporary but distinct spike in the proportion of boys born in Cuba around the time of the collapse of the national economy during the 1990s. Although an excess of boys does not fit the prevailing biologic theory regarding maternal stress and the sex ratio, the data are consistent with results from the Dutch famine (where population-level deprivation was even more extreme). A new quandary arises in the modern era with interpretation of the sex ratio: If the decision to abort a pregnancy is influenced by the sex of the fetus, a change in the behavior of even a small proportion of women could influence the sex ratio at birth. The possible role of sex selection in the Cuban context is discussed.