Estimating the True Burden of Legionnaires' Disease

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Framework Incorporating Water Ages with Legionella pneumophila Growth Rates

Water age in drinking water systems is often used as a proxy for water quality but is rarely used as a direct input in assessing microbial risk. This study directly linked water ages in a premise plumbing system to concentrations of Legionella pneumophila via a growth model. In turn, the L. pneumophila concentrations were used for a quantitative microbial risk assessment to calculate the associated probabilities of infection (Pinf) and clinically severe illness (Pcsi) due to showering. Risk reductions achieved by purging devices, which reduce water age, were also quantified. The median annual Pinf exceeded the commonly used 1 in 10,000 (10-4) risk benchmark in all scenarios, but the median annual Pcsi was always 1-3 orders of magnitude below 10-4. The median annual Pcsi was lower in homes with two occupants (4.7 × 10-7) than with one occupant (7.5 × 10-7) due to more frequent use of water fixtures, which reduced water ages. The median annual Pcsi for homes with one occupant was reduced by 39-43% with scheduled purging 1-2 times per day. Smart purging devices, which purge only after a certain period of nonuse, maintained these lower annual Pcsi values while reducing additional water consumption by 45-62%.

Molecular regulation of virulence in Legionella pneumophila

Legionella pneumophila is a gram-negative bacteria found in natural and anthropogenic aquatic environments such as evaporative cooling towers, where it reproduces as an intracellular parasite of cohabiting protozoa. If L. pneumophila is aerosolized and inhaled by a susceptible person, bacteria may colonize their alveolar macrophages causing the opportunistic pneumonia Legionnaires' disease. L. pneumophila utilizes an elaborate regulatory network to control virulence processes such as the Dot/Icm Type IV secretion system and effector repertoire, responding to changing nutritional cues as their host becomes depleted. The bacteria subsequently differentiate to a transmissive state that can survive in the environment until a replacement host is encountered and colonized. In this review, we discuss the lifecycle of L. pneumophila and the molecular regulatory network that senses nutritional depletion via the stringent response, a link to stationary phase-like metabolic changes via alternative sigma factors, and two-component systems that are homologous to stress sensors in other pathogens, to regulate differentiation between the intracellular replicative phase and more transmissible states. Together, we highlight how this prototypic intracellular pathogen offers enormous potential in understanding how molecular mechanisms enable intracellular parasitism and pathogenicity.

Estimating the burden of illness caused by domestic waterborne Legionnaires' disease in Canada: 2015-2019

Legionellosis is a disease caused by the bacterium Legionella that most commonly presents as Legionnaires' disease (LD), a severe form of pneumonia. From 2015 to 2019, an average of 438 LD cases per year were reported in Canada. However, it is believed that the actual number of cases is much higher, since LD may be underdiagnosed and underreported. The purpose of this study was to develop an estimate of the true incidence of illnesses, hospitalizations, and deaths associated with LD in Canada. Values were derived using a stochastic model, based on Canadian surveillance data from 2015 to 2019, which were scaled up to account for underdiagnosis and underreporting. Overall, there were an estimated 1,113 (90% CrI: 737-1,730) illnesses, 1,008 (90% CrI: 271-2,244) hospitalizations, and 34 (90% CrI: 4-86) deaths due to domestically acquired waterborne LD annually in Canada from 2015 to 2019. It was further estimated that only 36% of illnesses and 39% of hospitalizations and deaths were captured in surveillance, and that 22% of illnesses were caused by Legionella serogroups and species other than Legionella pneumophila serogroup 1 (non-Lp1). This study highlights the true burden and areas for improvement in Canada's surveillance and detection of LD.

Legionellosis on the rise: A scoping review of sporadic, community-acquired incidence in the United States

Over the past two decades, the incidence of legionellosis has been steadily increasing in the United States though there is noclear explanation for the main factors driving the increase. While legionellosis is the leading cause of waterborne outbreaks in the US, most cases are sporadic and acquired in community settings where the environmental source is never identified. This scoping review aimed to summarise the drivers of infections in the USA and determine the magnitude of impact each potential driver may have. A total of 1,738 titles were screened, and 18 articles were identified that met the inclusion criteria. Strong evidence was found for precipitation as a major driver, and both temperature and relative humidity were found to be moderate drivers of incidence. Increased testing and improved diagnostic methods were classified as moderate drivers, and the ageing U.S. population was a minor driver of increasing incidence. Racial and socioeconomic inequities and water and housing infrastructure were found to be potential factors explaining the increasing incidence though they were largely understudied in the context of non-outbreak cases. Understanding the complex relationships between environmental, infrastructure, and population factors driving legionellosis incidence is important to optimise mitigation strategies and public policy.

Stagnation arising through intermittent usage is associated with increased viable but non culturable Legionella and amoeba hosts in a hospital water system

Hospital water systems are a significant source of Legionella, resulting in the potentially fatal Legionnaires' disease. One of the biggest challenges for Legionella management within these systems is that under unfavorable conditions Legionella transforms itself into a viable but non culturable (VBNC) state that cannot be detected using the standard methods. This study used a novel method (flow cytometry-cell sorting and qPCR [VFC+qPCR] assay) concurrently with the standard detection methods to examine the effect of temporary water stagnation, on Legionella spp. and microbial communities present in a hospital water system. Water samples were also analyzed for amoebae using culture and Vermamoeba vermiformis and Acanthamoeba specific qPCR. The water temperature, number and duration of water flow events for the hand basins and showers sampled was measured using the Enware Smart Flow® monitoring system. qPCR analysis demonstrated that 21.8% samples were positive for Legionella spp., 21% for L. pneumophila, 40.9% for V. vermiformis and 4.2% for Acanthamoeba. All samples that were Legionella spp. positive using qPCR (22%) were also positive for VBNC Legionella spp.; however, only 2.5% of samples were positive for culturable Legionella spp. 18.1% of the samples were positive for free-living amoebae (FLA) using culture. All samples positive for Legionella spp. were also positive for FLA. Samples with a high heterotrophic plate count (HPC ≥ 5 × 103 CFU/L) were also significantly associated with high concentrations of Legionella spp. DNA, VBNC Legionella spp./L. pneumophila (p < 0.01) and V. vermiformis (p < 0.05). Temporary water stagnation arising through intermittent usage (< 2 hours of usage per month) significantly (p < 0.01) increased the amount of Legionella spp. DNA, VBNC Legionella spp./L. pneumophila, and V. vermiformis; however, it did not significantly impact the HPC load. In contrast to stagnation, no relationship was observed between the microbes and water temperature. In conclusion, Legionella spp. (DNA and VBNC) was associated with V. vermiformis, heterotrophic bacteria, and stagnation occurring through intermittent usage. This is the first study to monitor VBNC Legionella spp. within a hospital water system. The high percentage of false negative Legionella spp. results provided by the culture method supports the use of either qPCR or VFC+qPCR to monitor Legionella spp. contamination within hospital water systems.

Epidemiology and direct health care costs of hospitalised legionellosis in New Zealand, 2000-2020

BACKGROUND

Legionellosis is a collective term used for disease caused by Legionella species which result in community and hospital acquired pneumonia worldwide. The aim of this analysis was to describe the epidemiology of legionellosis hospitalisations in Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ) over a 21-year period and quantify the health care costs.

METHOD

This study combined national legionellosis notification and hospital discharge data that were linked via the National Health Index (NHI) to provide a more complete dataset of hospitalised cases. The direct cost of hospital care was estimated by multiplying the diagnosis-related group cost-weight by the national price and inflating to 2020/2021 values.

RESULTS

There were 1479 records matched across notifications and discharge databases, including 990 with principal and 489 with additional diagnosis of legionellosis. Incidence rose to an average of 143 cases per annum for 2016-2020, a rate of 3·2/100,000. The median LOS was 6 days (IQR 4-13·5) with direct costs of $2·1 million per annum over that period. Rates were highest in those aged 65 years and above, male, and of European/Other ethnicity. Hospitalisations showed a peak in spring and summer.

CONCLUSION

The rate of hospitalised legionellosis in New Zealand rose from 2000 to 2015, largely reflecting improved diagnosis. This preventable disease results in substantial health care costs. Greater efforts are needed to identify and control sources of exposure. Surveillance could be improved by routine integration of notification and hospital discharge data.

Estimated incidence of respiratory hospitalizations attributable to RSV infections across age and socioeconomic groups

BACKGROUND

Surveillance for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) likely captures just a fraction of the burden of disease. Understanding the burden of hospitalizations and disparities between populations can help to inform upcoming RSV vaccine programs and to improve surveillance.

METHODS

We obtained monthly age-, ZIP code- and cause-specific hospitalizations in New York, New Jersey, and Washington from the US State Inpatient Databases (2005-2014). We estimated the incidence of respiratory hospitalizations attributable to RSV by age and by socioeconomic status using regression models. We compared the estimated incidence and the recorded incidence (based on ICD9-CM) of RSV hospitalizations to estimate the under-recorded ratio in different subpopulations.

RESULTS

The estimated annual incidence of respiratory hospitalizations due to RSV was highest among infants < 1 year of age with low socioeconomic status (2800, 95% CrI [2600, 2900] per 100,000 person-years). We also estimated a considerable incidence in older adults (≥ 65 years of age), ranging from 130 to 960 per 100,000 person-years across different socioeconomic strata. The incidence of hospitalization recorded as being due to RSV represented a significant undercount, particularly in adults. Less than 5% of the estimated RSV hospitalizations were captured for those ≥ 65 years of age.

CONCLUSIONS

RSV causes a considerable burden of hospitalization in young children and in older adults in the US, with variation by socioeconomic group. Recorded diagnoses substantially underestimate the incidence of hospitalization due to RSV in older adults.

Legionnaires' Disease: Update on Diagnosis and Treatment

Legionellosis is the infection caused by bacteria of the genus Legionella, including a non-pneumonic influenza-like syndrome, and Legionnaires’ disease is a more serious illness characterized by pneumonia. Legionellosis is becoming increasingly important as a public health problem throughout the world; although it is an underreported disease, studies have consistently documented a high incidence. In addition, health costs associated with the disease are high. Diagnosis of Legionnaires’ disease is based mainly on the detection of Legionella pneumophila serogroup 1 antigen in urine. However, there have been advances in detection tests for patients with legionellosis. New methodologies show greater sensitivity and specificity, detect more species and serogroups of Legionella spp., and have the potential for use in epidemiological studies. Testing for Legionella spp. is recommended at hospital admission for severe community-acquired pneumonia, and antibiotics directed against Legionella spp. should be included early as empirical therapy. Inadequate or delayed antibiotic treatment in Legionella pneumonia has been associated with a worse prognosis. Either a fluoroquinolone (levofloxacin or moxifloxacin) or a macrolide (azithromycin preferred) is the recommended first-line therapy for Legionnaires’ disease; however, little information is available regarding adverse events or complications, or about the duration of antibiotic therapy and its association with clinical outcomes. Most published studies evaluating antibiotic treatment for Legionnaires’ disease are observational and consequently susceptible to bias and confounding. Well-designed studies are needed to assess the usefulness of diagnostic tests regarding clinical outcomes, as well as randomized trials comparing fluoroquinolones and macrolides or combination therapy that evaluate outcomes and adverse events.

Bacterial Antagonistic Species of the Pathogenic Genus Legionella Isolated from Cooling Tower

Legionella pneumophila is the causative agent of Legionnaires’ disease, a severe pneumonia. Cooling towers are a major source of large outbreaks of the disease. The growth of L. pneumophila in these habitats is influenced by the resident microbiota. Consequently, the aim of this study was to isolate and characterize bacterial species from cooling towers capable of inhibiting several strains of L. pneumophila and one strain of L. quinlivanii. Two cooling towers were sampled to isolate inhibiting bacterial species. Seven inhibitory isolates were isolated, through serial dilution plating and streaking on agar plates, belonging to seven distinct species. The genomes of these isolates were sequenced to identify potential genetic elements that could explain the inhibitory effect. The results showed that the bacterial isolates were taxonomically diverse and that one of the isolates may be a novel species. Genome analysis showed a high diversity of antimicrobial gene products identified in the genomes of the bacterial isolates. Finally, testing different strains of Legionella demonstrated varying degrees of susceptibility to the antimicrobial activity of the antagonistic species. This may be due to genetic variability between the Legionella strains. The results demonstrate that though cooling towers are breeding grounds for L. pneumophila, the bacteria must contend with various antagonistic species. Potentially, these species could be used to create an inhospitable environment for L. pneumophila, and thus decrease the probability of outbreaks occurring.

A review of legionnaires' disease and public water systems - Scientific considerations, uncertainties and recommendations

Legionella is an opportunistic premise plumbing pathogen and causative agent of a severe pneumonia called Legionnaires' Disease (LD). Cases of LD have been on the rise in the U.S. and globally. Although Legionella was first identified 45 years ago, it remains an 'emerging pathogen." Legionella is part of the normal ecology of a public water system and is frequently detected in regulatory-compliant drinking water. Drinking water utilities, regulators and public health alike are increasingly required to have a productive understanding of the evolving issues and complex discussions of the contribution of the public water utility to Legionella exposure and LD risk. This review provides a brief overview of scientific considerations important for understanding this complex topic, a review of findings from investigations of public water and LD, including data gaps, and recommendations for professionals interested in investigating public water utilities. Although the current literature is inconclusive in identifying a public water utility as a sole source of an LD outbreak, the evidence is clear that minimizing growth of Legionella in public water utilities through proper maintenance and sustained disinfectant residuals, throughout all sections of the water utility, will lead to a less conducive environment for growth of the bacteria in the system and the buildings they serve.

Regional Relative Risk, a Physics-Based Metric for Characterizing Airborne Infectious Disease Transmission

Airborne infectious disease transmission events occur over a wide range of spatial scales and can be an important means of disease transmission. Physics- and biology-based models can assist in predicting airborne transmission events, overall disease incidence, and disease control strategy efficacy. We describe a new theory that extends current approaches for the case in which an individual is infected by a single airborne particle, including the scenario in which numerous infectious particles are present in the air but only one causes infection. A single infectious particle can contain more than one pathogenic microorganism and be physically larger than the pathogen itself. This approach allows robust relative risk estimates even when there is wide variation in (i) individual exposures and (ii) the individual response to that exposure (the pathogen dose-response function can take any mathematical form and vary by individual). Based on this theory, we propose the regional relative risk-a new metric, distinct from the traditional relative risk metric, that compares the risk between two regions. In theory, these regions can range from individual rooms to large geographic areas. In this paper, we apply the regional relative risk metric to outdoor disease transmission events over spatial scales ranging from 50 m to 20 km, demonstrating that in many common cases minimal input information is required to use the metric. Also, we demonstrate that the model predictions are consistent with data from prior outbreaks. Future efforts could apply and validate this theory for other spatial scales, such as transmission within indoor environments. This work provides context for (i) the initial stages of an airborne disease outbreak and (ii) larger-scale disease spread, including unexpected low-probability disease "sparks" that potentially affect remote populations, a key practical issue in controlling airborne disease outbreaks. IMPORTANCE Airborne infectious disease transmission events occur over a wide range of spatial scales and can be important to disease outbreaks. We describe a new physics- and biology-based theory for the important case in which individuals are infected by a single airborne particle (even though numerous infectious particles can be emitted into the air and inhaled). Based on this theory, we propose a new epidemiological metric, regional relative risk, that compares the risk between two geographic regions (in theory, regions can range from individual rooms to large areas). Our modeling of transmission events predicts that for many scenarios of interest, minimal information is required to use this metric for locations 50 m to 20 km downwind. This prediction is consistent with data from prior disease outbreaks. Future efforts could apply and validate this theory for other spatial scales, such as indoor environments. Our results may be applicable to many airborne diseases a priori, as these results depend on the physics of airborne particulate dispersion.

Water Safety and Health Care: Preventing Infections Caused by Opportunistic Premise Plumbing Pathogens

Health care facility water systems have been associated with the transmission of opportunistic premise plumbing pathogens such as Legionella and nontuberculous mycobacteria. These pathogens can enter a building's water system in low numbers and then proliferate when conditions are conducive to their growth. Patients and residents in health care facilities are often at heightened risk for opportunistic infections, and cases and outbreaks in the literature highlight the importance of routine water management programs and occasions for intervention to prevent additional cases. A multidisciplinary proactive approach to water safety is critical for sustained prevention of health care-associated water-related infections.

Community-Based Antibiotic Prescribing Attributable to Respiratory Syncytial Virus and Other Common Respiratory Viruses in Young Children: A Population-Based Time-series Study of Scottish Children

BACKGROUND

Inappropriate antibiotic prescribing, such as for viral illness, remains common in primary care. The objective of this study was to estimate the proportion of community-prescribed antibiotics to children aged less than 5 years attributable to common respiratory viruses.

METHODS

We fitted time-series negative binomial models to predict weekly antibiotic prescribing rates from positive viral pathogen tests for the period 1 April 2009 through 27 December 2017 using comprehensive, population-based administrative data for all children (<5 years) living in Scotland. Multiple respiratory viral pathogens were considered, including respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), influenza, human metapneumovirus (HMPV), rhinovirus, and human parainfluenza (HPIV) types 1-4. We estimated the proportion of antibiotic prescriptions explained by virus circulation according to type of virus, by age group, presence of high-risk chronic conditions, and antibiotic class.

RESULTS

We included data on 6 066 492 antibiotic prescriptions among 452 877 children. The antibiotic-prescribing rate among all Scottish children (<5 years) was 609.7 per 1000 child-years. Our final model included RSV, influenza, HMPV, HPIV-1, and HPIV-3. An estimated 6.9% (95% confidence interval, 5.6-8.3%), 2.4% (1.7-3.1%), and 2.3% (.8-3.9%) of antibiotics were attributable to RSV, influenza, and HMPV, respectively. RSV was consistently associated with the highest proportion of prescribed antibiotics, particularly among children without chronic conditions and for amoxicillin and macrolide prescriptions.

CONCLUSIONS

Nearly 14% of antibiotics prescribed to children in this study were estimated to be attributable to common viruses for which antibiotics are not recommended. A future RSV vaccine could substantially reduce unnecessary antibiotic prescribing among children.

Multi-Scale Airborne Infectious Disease Transmission

Airborne disease transmission is central to many scientific disciplines including agriculture, veterinary biosafety, medicine, and public health. Legal and regulatory standards are in place to prevent agricultural, nosocomial, and community airborne disease transmission. However, the overall importance of the airborne pathway is underappreciated, e.g.,, US National Library of Medicine's Medical Subjects Headings (MESH) thesaurus lacks an airborne disease transmission indexing term. This has practical consequences as airborne precautions to control epidemic disease spread may not be taken when airborne transmission is important, but unrecognized. Publishing clearer practical methodological guidelines for surveillance studies and disease outbreak evaluations could help address this situation.To inform future work, this paper highlights selected, well-established airborne transmission events - largely cases replicated in multiple, independently conducted scientific studies. Methodologies include field experiments, modeling, epidemiology studies, disease outbreak investigations and mitigation studies. Collectively, this literature demonstrates that airborne viruses, bacteria, and fungal pathogens have the capability to cause disease in plants, animals, and humans over multiple distances - from near range (< 5 m) to continental (> 500 km) in scale. The plausibility and implications of undetected airborne disease transmission are discussed, including the notable underreporting of disease burden for several airborne transmitted diseases.

Excess Pneumonia Mortality During a 2014-2015 Legionnaires' Disease Outbreak in Genesee County, Michigan

BACKGROUND

From June 2014 to October 2015, the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services reported an outbreak of 90 cases of Legionnaires' disease, including 10 deaths, in Genesee County, Michigan. As Legionnaires' disease is not routinely tested for as a cause of community-acquired pneumonia, we hypothesized that the size of the outbreak was underestimated.

METHODS

We used Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Wide-ranging ONline Data for Epidemiologic Research data to compare pneumonia mortality in Genesee to similar counties from 2011 to 2017. We used data from the Genesee County Vital Records Division to assess geographic overlap of pneumonia mortality with reported Legionnaires disease cases by census tract.

RESULTS

We estimated 70.0 excess pneumonia deaths (90% uncertainty interval: 36-103) in Genesee County during the outbreak. Areas of high pneumonia mortality overlapped with those with high Legionnaires' disease incidence.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that the Legionnaires' disease outbreak was larger than reported. Earlier outbreak detection and response may have facilitated identification of additional cases.

Evaluation of the national surveillance of Legionnaires' disease in Norway, 2008-2017

Background

In Norway, Legionnaires’ disease is reportable upon clinical suspicion to public health authorities and mandatorily notifiable through the Norwegian surveillance system for communicable diseases (MSIS) for both clinicians and laboratories. In the summer of 2017, several European countries reported high notification rates for Legionnaires’ disease, which was not observed in Norway. We evaluated MSIS to assess if it meets its objectives of detecting cases and trends in incidence of Legionnaires’ disease.

Methods

We retrieved MSIS data from 2008 to 2017 and calculated timeliness as days from sampling to notification, and internal completeness for key variables as the proportion of observations with a value. Where possible, we assessed internal validity on the presence of a plausible value. To estimate external completeness and validity we linked MSIS with hospital reimbursement claims in the Norwegian Patient Registry. To assess acceptability and representativeness, we surveyed doctors in 39 hospitals on their units’ diagnostic and notification procedures, and their use of MSIS.

Results

There were 438 notified cases. Internal completeness and internal validity were high for key variables (≥95%). The median delay from sampling to notification was 4 days.

There were 73 patients in MSIS only, 70 in the Norwegian Patient Registry only, and 351 in both registers. The external completeness of MSIS was 83% (95% CI 80–86%). For external validity, the positive predictive value of MSIS was 83% (95% CI 79–86%).

Forty-seven respondents from 28 hospitals described testing procedures. These were inconsistent: 29 (62%) reported no systematic application of criteria for requesting legionella testing. Eighteen (38%) reported testing all patients with suspected pneumonia and a travel history. Thirty-one (66%) found the notification criteria clear.

Conclusions

Our results suggest that the surveillance in MSIS can detect incidence changes for Legionnaires’ disease over time, by place and person, but likely does not detect every case diagnosed in Norway.

We recommend wider investigation of diagnostic procedures in order to improve representativeness and awareness of MSIS notification criteria among clinicians in order to improve acceptability of the surveillance. We also recommend a more comprehensive assessment of whether patients only registered in the Norwegian Patient Registry were true Legionnaires’ disease cases.