Prognostic Significance of Presenting Blood Pressure in Patients With ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction Undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

Machine-learning based risk prediction of in-hospital outcomes following STEMI: the STEMI-ML score

Background

Traditional prognostic models for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) have limitations in statistical methods and usability.

Objective

We aimed to develop a machine-learning (ML) based risk score to predict in-hospital mortality, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and left ventricular ejection fraction less than 40% (LVEF < 40%) in STEMI patients.

Methods

We reviewed 1,863 consecutive STEMI patients undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (pPCI) or rescue PCI. Eight supervised ML methods [LASSO, ridge, elastic net (EN), decision tree, support vector machine, random forest, AdaBoost and gradient boosting] were trained and validated. A feature selection method was used to establish more informative and nonredundant variables, which were then considered in groups of 5/10/15/20/25/30(all). Final models were chosen to optimise area under the curve (AUC) score while ensuring interpretability.

Results

Overall, 128 (6.9%) patients died in hospital, with 292 (15.7%) patients requiring ICU admission and 373 (20.0%) patients with LVEF < 40%. The best-performing model with 5 included variables, EN, achieved an AUC of 0.79 for in-hospital mortality, 0.78 for ICU admission, and 0.74 for LVEF < 40%. The included variables were age, pre-hospital cardiac arrest, robust collateral recruitment (Rentrop grade 2 or 3), family history of coronary disease, initial systolic blood pressure, initial heart rate, hypercholesterolemia, culprit vessel, smoking status and TIMI flow pre-PCI. We developed a user-friendly web application for real-world use, yielding risk scores as a percentage.

Conclusions

The STEMI-ML score effectively predicts in-hospital outcomes in STEMI patients and may assist with risk stratification and individualising patient management.

Impact of pre-procedural diastolic blood pressure on major adverse cardiovascular events in non ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction patients following revascularization

Previous reports have observed a consistent J-shaped relationship between cardiac events and diastolic blood pressure (DBP). However, the EPHESUS study clearly showed that myocardial reperfusion abolished the J-shaped association, suggesting a different association pattern after revascularization. Therefore, in this study, we investigated the different patterns in which DBP affects cardiovascular risk in non ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) patients after revascularization, which may benefit the risk stratification for NSTEMI patients. We obtained the NSTEMI database from the Dryad data repository and analyzed the association between preprocedural DBP and long-term major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) in 1486 patients with NSTEMI following percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Multivariate regression models were used to assess the impact of DBP on outcomes in an adjusted fashion according to DBP tertiles. The p value for the trend was calculated using linear regression. When examined as a continuous variable, a multivariate regression analysis was repeated. Pattern stability was verified by interaction and stratified analyses. The median (interquartile range) age of the patients was 61.00 (53.00-68.00) years, and 63.32% were male. Cardiac death showed a graded increase as the DBP tertile increased (p for trend = 0.0369). When examined as a continuous variable, a 1 mmHg increase in DBP level was associated with an 18% higher risk of long-term cardiac death (95% CI: 1.01-1.36, p = 0.0311) and a 2% higher risk of long-term all-cause death (95% CI: 1.01-1.04; p = 0.0178). The association pattern remained stable when stratified by sex, age, diabetes, hypertension, and smoking status. An association between low DBP and higher cardiovascular risk was not observed in our study. We showed that higher preprocedural DBP increased the risk of long-term cardiac death and all-cause death in patients with NSTEMI following PCI.

J-curve relationship between admission SBP and 2-year cardiovascular mortality in older patients admitted for acute coronary syndrome

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the relationship between admission SBP and subsequent cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in older patients hospitalized for acute coronary syndrome (ACS).

METHODS

This is a retrospective observational study. Data from the CBD Bank (Cardiovascular Center Beijing Friendship Hospital Database Bank) were used to analyze the cardiovascular and all-cause mortality during hospitalization and over the follow-up period in relation to admission SBP among patients aged at least 65 years admitted for ACS from December 2012 through July 2019. Results were presented according to SBP quartiles: Q1, less than 120 mmHg; Q2, from 120 to 129 mmHg; Q3, from 130 to 143 mmHg; and Q4, at or above 144 mmHg.

RESULTS

A total of 6785 patients were included in this cohort study. Mean (SD) patient age was 74.0 (6.5) years, and 47.6% were women. Mean (SD) follow-up time was 2.54 (1.82) years. A nonlinear relation was observed between SBP at admission and cardiovascular and all-cause mortality during hospitalization and over the follow-up period using restricted cubic splines. After adjustment for potential confounders, patients in Q1 had higher risk for 2-year cardiovascular death by Cox proportional hazard model compared with patients in Q2 [hazard ratio, 1.58; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.12-2.21, P = 0.009], whereas patients in Q3 or Q4 exhibited a trend towards increased risk for 2-year cardiovascular death (hazard ratio, 1.33, 95% CI, 0.95-1.86, P = 0.094, for Q3 vs. Q2; and hazard ratio, 1.28, 95% CI, 0.91-1.82, P = 0.160, for Q4 vs. Q2). Meanwhile, when compared with patients in Q1, patients in Q2 had lower risk for 2-year cardiovascular death (hazard ratio, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.45-0.89, P = 0.009) whereas patients in Q3 or Q4 had similar risk for cardiovascular death (hazard ratio, 0.85, 95% CI, 0.63-1.14, P = 0.272, for Q3 vs. Q1; and hazard ratio, 0.82, 95% CI, 0.59-1.13, P = 0.221, for Q4 vs. Q1). However, low-admission SBP was not an independent predictor of 2-year all-cause mortality in this population.

CONCLUSION

Among patients aged at least 65 years admitted for ACS, there is a J-curve relationship between supine admission SBP and risk for 2-year cardiovascular death, with a nadir at 120-129 mmHg.

Prediction of 1-Year Mortality from Acute Myocardial Infarction Using Machine Learning

Risk stratification at hospital discharge could be instrumental in guiding postdischarge care. In this study, the risk models for 1-year mortality using machine learning (ML) were evaluated for guiding management of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) patients. From the Korea Acute Myocardial Infarction Registry (KAMIR) dataset, 22,182 AMI patients were selected. The 1-year all-cause mortality was recorded at 12-month follow-up periods. Anomaly detection was conducted for removing outliers; principal component analysis for dimensionality reduction, recursive feature elimination algorithm for feature selection. Model selection and training were conducted with 70% of the dataset after the creation and cross-validation of hundreds of models with decision trees, ensembles, logistic regressions, and deepnets algorithms. The rest of the dataset (30%) was used for comparison between the ML and KAMIR score-based models. The mean age of the AMI patients was 64 years, 71.8% were male, and 56.7% were eventually diagnosed with ST-elevation myocardial infarction. There were 1,332 patients suffering from all-cause mortality (6%) during a median 338 days of follow-up. The ML models for 1-year mortality were well-calibrated (Hosmer-Lemeshow p >0.05) and showed good discrimination (area under the curve for test cohort: 0.918). Compared with the performance of the KAMIR score model, the ML model had a higher area under the curve, net reclassification improvement, and integrated discrimination improvement. The ML model for 1-year mortality was well-calibrated and had excellent discriminatory ability and higher performance. In a comprehensive clinical evaluation process, this model could support risk stratification and management in postdischarge AMI patients.

Predictors of suboptimal coronary blood flow after primary angioplasty and its implications on short-term outcomes in patients with acute anterior STEMI

BACKGROUND

Suboptimal coronary blood flow after primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is a complex multifactorial phenomenon. Although extensively studied, defined modifiable risk factors and efficient management strategy are lacking. This study aims to determine the potential causes of suboptimal flow and associated impact on 30-day outcomes in patients presenting with anterior ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI).

METHODS

We evaluated a total of 1104 consecutive patients admitted to our hospital from January 2016 to December 2018 with the diagnosis of anterior wall STEMI who had primary PCI.

RESULTS

Overall, 245 patients (22.2%) had final post-PCI TIMI flow ≤2 in the LAD (suboptimal flow group) and 859 (77.8%) had final TIMI-3 flow (optimal flow group). The independent predictors of suboptimal flow were thrombus burden grade (Odds ratio (OR) 1.848; p < 0.001), age (OR 1.039 per 1-year increase; p < 0.001), low systolic blood pressure (OR 1.017 per 1 mmHg decrease; p < 0.001), total stent length (OR 1.021 per 1 mm increase; p < 0.001), and baseline TIMI flow ≤1 (OR 1.674; p = 0.018). The 30-day rates of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and cardiac mortality were significantly higher in patients with TIMI flow ≤2 compared to those with TIMI-3 flow (MACE: adjusted risk ratio [RR] 2.021; P = 0.025, cardiac mortality: adjusted RR 2.931; P = 0.031).

CONCLUSION

Failure to achieve normal TIMI-3 flow was associated with patient-related (age) and other potentially modifiable risk factors (thrombus burden, admission systolic blood pressure, total stent length, and baseline TIMI flow). The absence of final TIMI-3 flow carried worse short-term clinical outcomes.

Association between admission systolic blood pressure and major adverse cardiovascular events in patients with acute myocardial infarction

BACKGROUND

Several studies have previously demonstrated that higher systolic blood pressure level means lower risk of adverse cardiovascular outcomes. However, there is a lack of further investigation into the nonlinear relationship between admission systolic blood pressure (SBP) and adverse outcomes of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) patients.

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to investigate the specific relationship between admission SBP and incidence of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in 30 days for AMI patients.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Using data from the ACS-QUIK trial, we analyzed 21,364 patients from Kerala, India. In univariate linear-regression model, the OR was 0.90 per 10mmHg, the confidence interval (CI) was 95% (0.87-0.92) and P < 0.0001. The generalized additive model (GAM) showed a nearly U-shaped curve between admission SBP and MACE. Using a two-piecewise linear regression model, we calculated an inflection point of 159 mmHg. We found that the higher admission SBP is associated with lower incidence of MACE of AMI patients. In addition, subgroups with different LVEF have distinct effects on blood pressure-related outcomes. Lower SBP has a greater risk when LVEF < 40%.

CONCLUSION

The present study revealed the U-shaped relationship between admission SBP and the risk of adverse cardiovascular outcome. The admission SBP could be a marker to provide clinical assessment and treatment.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT02256657.

The transcriptome of circulating cells indicates potential biomarkers and therapeutic targets in the course of hypertension-related myocardial infarction

Hypertension (HT) is the most common public-health challenge and shows a high incidence around the world. Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of mortality and morbidity among the elderly (age > 65 years) in the United States. Now, there is widespread acceptance of the causal link between HT and acute myocardial infarction (MI). This is the first data-mining study to identify co-expressed differentially expressed genes (co-DEGs) between HT and MI (relative to normal control) and to uncover potential biomarkers and therapeutic targets of HT-related MI. In this manuscript, HT-specific DEGs and MI-specific DEGs and differentially expressed microRNAs (DE-miRNAs) were identified in Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) datasets GSE24752, GSE60993, GSE62646, and GSE24548 after data consolidation and batch correction. Subsequently, enrichment in Gene Ontology (GO) terms and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) pathways as well as protein–protein interaction networks were identified, and single-gene gene set enrichment analysis was performed to determine the affected biological categories and networks. Cross-matching of the results on co-DE-miRNAs and predicted miRNAs targeting the co-DEGs was conducted and discussed as well. We found that MYC and HIST1H2BO may be associated with HT, whereas FCGR1A, FYN, KLRD1, KLRB1, and FOLR3 may be implicated in MI. Moreover, co-DEGs FOLR3 and NFE2 with predicted miRNAs and DE-miRNAs, especially miR-7 and miR-548, may be significantly associated and show huge potential as a new set of novel biomarkers and important molecular targets in the course of HT-related MI.

Shock Index on Admission Is Associated with Coronary Slow/No Reflow in Patients with Acute Myocardial Infarction Undergoing Emergent Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

Objective

Coronary slow/no reflow is not rare after successfully undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI), and shock index (SI) is an important factor for adverse cardiovascular prognosis. In this study, we are to explore whether SI is associated with coronary slow/no reflow in patients with AMI following primary PCI.

Methods

A total of 153 consecutive AMI patients undergoing primary PCI within 24 hours of symptom onset were included in this study. The participants were divided into normal flow group (n=124) and slow/no reflow group (n=29) according to cineangiograms recorded during the period of PCI. Cardiovascular risk factors, hematologic parameters, preoperative management of antithrombotic therapy, and baseline angiography were collected.

Results

SI, plasma glucose, white blood cells (WBC) and neutrophil count, neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (PLR), high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), probrain natriuretic peptide (pro-BNP), and Killip classification on admission and thrombus burden on initial angiography were significantly different between patients with and without slow/no reflow. Multivariate analysis revealed that SI≥0.66, thrombus burden, and plasma glucose on admission were independent predictors for coronary slow/no reflow. Preoperative management of tirofiban therapy improves initial thrombolysis in myocardial infarction (TIMI). However, it has no effect on prognosis of slow/no reflow.

Conclusion

Our findings demonstrated that slow/no reflow in patients with AMI following primary PCI was more likely associated with SI≥0.66, thrombus burden, and plasma glucose on admission. SI as a predictor for coronary slow/no reflow should be further confirmed in the following more large-scale and prospective studies. The clinical registration number is ChiCTR1900024447.

Hypertension and patients with acute coronary syndrome: Putting blood pressure levels into perspective

Arterial hypertension is a well-established cardiovascular risk factor, and blood pressure (BP) control has largely improved the prognosis of hypertensive patients. A number of studies have assessed the role of BP levels in the prognosis of patients with acute coronary syndromes. Pathophysiologic links of hypertension to acute myocardial infarction (MI) include endothelial dysfunction, autonomic nervous system dysregulation, impaired vasoreactivity, and a genetic substrate. A history of hypertension is highly prevalent among patients presenting with MI, and some, but not all, studies have associated it with a worse prognosis. Some data support that low levels of admission and in-hospital BP may indicate an increased risk for subsequent events. Risk scores used in patients with MI have, therefore, included BP levels and a history of hypertension in their variables. Of note, good long-term BP control, ideally initiated prior to discharge, should be pursued in order to improve secondary prevention.

Comparison of 4 Admission Blood Pressure Indexes for Predicting 30-Day Mortality in Patients With ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction

BACKGROUND

We compared admission systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), pulse pressure (PP), and mean arterial pressure (MAP) in predicting 30-day all-cause mortality in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) without cardiogenic shock.

METHODS

A retrospective study was performed in 7,033 consecutive STEMI patients. Multivariate-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) with a 10mm Hg increment and quartiles of each blood pressure were determined by Cox proportional hazard analyses; Wald χ (2) tests were used to compare the strength of relationships.

RESULTS

Totally 593 (8.4%) patients died during follow-up. Of 4 indexes, only SBP (HR 0.94 per 10mm Hg, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.91 to 0.98; P = 0.001) and PP (HR 0.89 per 10 mmHg, 95% CI 0.85 to 0.94; P < 0.001) were significantly associated with 30-day all-cause mortality; these in the highest vs. lowest quartiles of SBP (≥140 vs. <110mm Hg) and PP (≥60 vs. <40mm Hg) had HRs of mortality of 0.70 (95% CI 0.55 to 0.87; P = 0.003) and 0.60 (95% CI 0.47 to 0.75; P < 0.001), respectively. Compared with SBP, PP was a better predictor for mortality no matter in men (χ (2) = 5.9 for per 10mm Hg, χ (2) = 10.8 for quartiles) or women (χ (2) = 15.1 for per 10mm Hg, χ (2) = 19.5 for quartiles), and the relationship remained significant after adjustment of SBP. There was a pattern of declining risk with increasing blood pressures for mortality, and this trend was mainly observed in age groups of more than 70 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Pulse pressure was an independent predictor of mortality in patients with STEMI, and low admission blood pressure should serve as a warning sign.

Rapid predictors for the occurrence of reduced left ventricular ejection fraction between LAD and non-LAD related ST-elevation myocardial infarction

BACKGROUNDS

Reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) after acute myocardial infarction (AMI), which implies the occurrence of cardiac dysfunction, impacts cardiac prognosis, even after primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). This study was designed to clarify the difference of clinical and angiographic predictors for reduced LVEF in ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients with left anterior descending artery (LAD) or non-LAD vessel as culprit artery.

METHODS

This was a retrospective study to review a total of 553 patients of STEMI underwent primary PCI in our hospital. All patients underwent echocardiography. Univariate analysis, multivariate analysis and classification and regression tree (CART) were performed between LAD related AMI and non-LAD related STEMI. The primary outcome was the occurrence of reduced LVEF 4-6 days after PCI.

RESULTS

In this study, culprit arteries of STEMI were 315 in LAD system (6 in left main artery, 309 in LAD) and 238 in non-LAD system (63 in left circumflex and 175 in right coronary artery). Compared with non-LAD group, post-MI LVEF was significantly reduced in LAD related STEMI group (52.4 ± 9.3% vs. 57.1 ± 7.8%, P < 0.01). Multivariate analysis indicated that elder (>65 years), time to hospital and proximal occlusion were associated with reduced LVEF (<55%) in LAD related STEMI patients. However, in non-LAD patients, time to hospital, multivessel stenosis and post-PCI blood pressure predicted the occurrence of reduced LVEF. Furthermore, CART analysis also obtained similar findings.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with LAD or non-LAD related STEMI could suffer reduced LVEF, while the clinical and angiographic predictors for the occurrence were different.