A Comparison of Two Strategies for Building an Exposure Prediction Model

Predictors of return to work among women with long-term neck/shoulder and/or back pain: A 1-year prospective study

Background

Sick leave due to musculoskeletal pain, particularly in the neck/shoulders and back, is one of the major public health problems in Western countries such as Sweden. The aim of this study was to identify predictors of return to work (RTW) among women on sick leave due to long-term neck/shoulder and/or back pain.

Methods

This was a prospective cohort study with a 1-year follow-up. The study participants were recruited from a local Swedish Social Insurance Agency register and had all been on sick leave for ≥ 1 month due to long-term (≥ 3 months) neck/shoulder and/or back pain. Data on predictors and outcome were collected using a self-administered questionnaire. A total of 208 women aged 23–64 years were included at baseline, and 141 responded at the 1-year follow-up. Cluster analyses were performed to identify one predictor from each cluster for use in the regression model.

Results

At the 1-year follow-up, 94 of the 141 women had RTW and 47 had not. Women who engaged in more coping through increasing behavioral activities (OR: 1.14, 95% CI: 1.03–1.25) and those who more strongly believed they would return to the same work within 6 months (OR: 1.22, 95% CI: 1.10–1.37) had an increased probability of RTW. Receiving more social support outside work (OR: 0.50, 95% CI: 0.28–0.92) decreased the odds of RTW at the 1-year follow-up.

Conclusions

Behavioral activities, beliefs about returning to the same work, and social support outside work were predictors of RTW at the 1-year follow-up. Healthcare professionals should consider these predictors in their efforts to prevent prolonged sick leave and to promote RTW in this population.

Factors associated with return to work among people on work absence due to long-term neck or back pain: a narrative systematic review

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this narrative systematic review was to summarise prognostic factors for return to work (RTW) among people with long-term neck/shoulder or back pain.

METHODS

A systematic literature search was performed through three databases (Medline, CINAHL and PsycINFO) for studies published until February 2016. Only observational studies of people on work absence (≥2 weeks) due to neck/shoulder or back pain were included. The methodological quality of the included studies was assessed using guidelines for assessing quality in prognostic studies on the basis of Framework of Potential Biases. Factors found in the included studies were grouped into categories based on similarities and then labelled according to the aspects covered by the factors in the category.

RESULTS

Nine longitudinal prospective cohort studies and one retrospective study fulfilled the inclusion criteria. From these, five categories of factors were extracted. Our findings indicate that recovery beliefs, health-related factors and work capacity are important for RTW among people with long-term neck or back pain. We did not find support for workplace factors and behaviour being predictive of RTW.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that recovery beliefs, perceived health and work capacity may be important targets of intervention for people with long-term neck or back pain. However, more high-quality prospective studies are needed to confirm the results and improve our understanding of what is needed to facilitate RTW in this population.