Prognostic factors in Hodgkin's lymphoma

Development and Validation of a Novel Risk Stratification Model for Cancer-Specific Survival in Diffuse Large B-Cell Lymphoma

Diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) is a biologically and clinically heterogenous disease. Identifying more precise and individual survival prognostic models are still needed. This study aimed to develop a predictive nomogram and a web-based survival rate calculator that can dynamically predict the long-term cancer-specific survival (CSS) of DLBCL patients. A total of 3,573 eligible patients with DLBCL from 2004 to 2015 were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. The entire group was randomly divided into the training (n = 2,504) and validation (n = 1,069) cohorts. We identified six independent predictors for survival including age, sex, marital status, Ann Arbor stage, B symptom, and chemotherapy, which were used to construct the nomogram and the web-based survival rate calculator. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.709 (95% CI, 0.692–0.726) in the training cohort and 0.700 (95% CI, 0.671–0.729) in the validation cohort. The AUC values of the nomogram for predicting the 1-, 5-, and 10- year CSS rates ranged from 0.704 to 0.765 in both cohorts. All calibration curves revealed optimal consistency between predicted and actual survival. A risk stratification model generated based on the nomogram showed a favorable level of predictive accuracy compared with the IPI, R-IPI, and Ann Arbor stage in both cohorts according to the AUC values (training cohort: 0.715 vs 0.676, 0.652, and 0.648; validation cohort: 0.695 vs 0.692, 0.657, and 0.624) and K-M survival curves. In conclusion, we have established and validated a novel nomogram risk stratification model and a web-based survival rate calculator that can dynamically predict the long-term CSS in DLBCL, which revealed more discriminative and predictive accuracy than the IPI, R-IPI, and Ann Arbor stage in the rituximab era.

Focal skeletal FDG uptake indicates poor prognosis in cHL regardless of extent and first-line chemotherapy

¹⁸ F-fluoro-2-deoxy-D-glucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography (FDG-PET/CT) is used for staging classical Hodgkin lymphoma (cHL) with high sensitivity for skeletal involvement. However, it is unclear whether a single bone lesion carries the same adverse prognosis as multifocal lesions and if this is affected by type of chemotherapy [ABVD (adriamycin, bleomycin, vincristine, dacarbazine) versus BEACOPP (bleomycin, etoposide, adriamycin, cyclophosphamide, vincristine, procarbazine, prednisone)]. We reviewed the clinico-pathological and outcome data from 209 patients with newly diagnosed cHL staged by FDG-PET/CT. Patterns of skeletal/bone marrow uptake (BMU) were divided into 'low' and 'high' diffuse BMU (i.e. without focal lesions), and unifocal or multifocal lesions. Additional separate survival analysis was performed, taking type of chemotherapy into account. Forty patients (19·2%) had skeletal lesions (20 unifocal, 20 multifocal). The 3-year progression-free-survival (PFS) was 80% for patients with 'low BMU', 87% for 'high BMU', 69% for 'unifocal' and 51% for 'multifocal' lesions; median follow-up was 38 months. The presence of bone lesions, both uni- and multifocal, was associated with significantly inferior PFS (log rank P = 0·0001), independent of chemotherapy type. Thus, increased diffuse BMU should not be considered as a risk factor in cHL, whereas unifocal or multifocal bone lesions should be regarded as important predictors of adverse outcome, irrespective of the chemotherapy regimen used.

Nomograms for predicting the overall and cancer-specific survival of patients with classical Hodgkin lymphoma: a SEER-based study

The aim of this study was to establish nomograms, based on significant clinicopathologic parameters, for predicting the overall survival (OS) and the cancer-specific survival (CSS) of patients with classical Hodgkin lymphoma (CHL). The data of 43,330 CHL patients, diagnosed between 1983 and 2014, were obtainedfrom the database of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program. These patients were randomly divided into training (n = 30,339) and validation (n = 12,991) cohorts. The Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional hazards regression model were used to evaluate the prognostic effects of multiple clinicopathologic parameters on survival. Significant prognostic factors were combined to build nomograms. The predictive performance of nomograms was evaluated using the index of concordance (C-index) and calibration curves. In the training cohort, on univariate and multivariate analyses, age at diagnosis, gender, race, Ann Arbor stage, and histological type significantly correlated with the survival outcomes. These characteristics were used to establish nomograms. The nomograms showed good accuracy in predicting 1-, 5-, and 10-year OS and CSS, with a C-index of 0.794 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.789-0.799) for OS and 0.760 (95% CI, 0.753-0.767) for CSS. In the validation cohort, the C-index for nomogram-based predictions was 0.787 (95% CI, 0.779-0.795) for OS and 0.769 (95% CI, 0.758-0.780) for CSS. All calibration curves revealed excellent consistency between predicted and actual survival. In summary, novel nomograms were established and validated to predict OS and CSS for patients with CHL. These new prognostic models could aid in improved prediction of survival outcomes leading to reasonable treatment recommendations.

On the prediction of Hodgkin lymphoma treatment response

PURPOSE

The cure rate in Hodgkin lymphoma is high, but the response along with treatment is still unpredictable and highly variable among patients. Detecting those patients who do not respond to treatment at early stages could bring improvements in their treatment. This research tries to identify the main biological prognostic variables currently gathered at diagnosis and design a simple machine learning methodology to help physicians improve the treatment response assessment.

METHODS

We carried out a retrospective analysis of the response to treatment of a cohort of 263 Caucasians who were diagnosed with Hodgkin lymphoma in Asturias (Spain). For that purpose, we used a list of 35 clinical and biological variables that are currently measured at diagnosis before any treatment begins. To establish the list of most discriminatory prognostic variables for treatment response, we designed a machine learning approach based on two different feature selection methods (Fisher's ratio and maximum percentile distance) and backwards recursive feature elimination using a nearest-neighbor classifier (k-NN). The weights of the k-NN classifier were optimized using different terms of the confusion matrix (true- and false-positive rates) to minimize risk in the decisions.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

We found that the optimum strategy to predict treatment response in Hodgkin lymphoma consists in solving two different binary classification problems, discriminating first if the patient is in progressive disease; if not, then discerning among complete and partial remission. Serum ferritin turned to be the most discriminatory variable in predicting treatment response, followed by alanine aminotransferase and alkaline phosphatase. The importance of these prognostic variables suggests a close relationship between inflammation, iron overload, liver damage and the extension of the disease.

Clinical features and outcomes of Hodgkin's lymphoma in Korea: Consortium for Improving Survival of Lymphoma (CISL)

Ethnic and regional differences in the epidemiology and pathological aspects of Hodgkin's lymphoma (HL) between Western and Asian patients may be associated with differences in clinical features and prognosis. We retrospectively analyzed the clinical and histopathological characteristics, therapeutic outcomes, and prognostic factors of 539 HL patients treated at 16 centers in Korea. We found that the incidence of histological subtypes of HL in Korea was similar to that in Western and other Asian countries. However, the incidence peaked between 16 and 30 years of age, unlike the bimodal age distribution seen in Western countries. In patients with stage I-IIA non-bulky disease, the complete response (CR) rate was similar between combined modality therapy and chemotherapy alone (93% vs. 84%, P = 0.44), and there was no difference in relapse-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS). Patients with stage I-II disease plus unfavorable factors and those with advanced-stage disease treated with combination chemotherapy regimens had an overall CR rate of 77%, with no difference between doxorubicin, bleomycin, vinblastine, and dacarbazine (ABVD) and non-ABVD regimens (77.2% vs. 76.8%, P = 0.95). Among those patients who achieved final CR, there was no significant difference in RFS or OS between those who achieved interim CR and PR. Only the presence of B symptoms was independently predictive of a shorter RFS. Age > 45 years, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group 2-4, and B symptoms were independent risk factors for death. Although the incidence of HL was lower in Korea than in Western countries, the distribution of morphological subtypes, treatment outcomes, and patient prognosis were similar.

Prognostic analysis and a new risk model for Hodgkin lymphoma in Japan

The Japan Clinical Oncology Group conducted two multicenter phase II trials in 200 patients with advanced Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) in the 1990s. Among 181 patients whose histopathological specimens were available and reviewed by 6 hematopathologists, 167 (92.3%) were diagnosed with HL. Five-year overall survival (OS) among these 167 patients was 88.3%, including 89.2% among nodular sclerosis and 82.2% among mixed cellularity cases. International prognostic score was not closely associated with OS. Seven unfavorable prognostic factors for OS on univariate analysis were male, B symptoms, clinical stage of III or IV, elevated serum LDH, elevated alkaline phosphatase, elevated beta2-microglobulin, and pathological subtype (mixed cellularity and lymphocyte depletion). On multivariate analysis, male [HR 3.30 (95% CI 1.15-9.52, p = 0.027)] and elevated serum LDH [HR 2.41 (95% CI 1.07-5.43, p = 0.034)] were independent factors for OS. Based on these prognostic factors, the 5-year OS was 95.7% in the low-risk group (no adverse factor), 87.9% in the intermediate-risk group (1 adverse factor) and 73.3% in the high-risk group (2 adverse factors). This simple prognostic model for HL warrants further validation studies.

Brazilian experience using high-dose sequential chemotherapy followed by autologous hematopoietic stem cell transplantation for relapsed or refractory Hodgkin lymphoma

PURPOSE

We evaluate the effectiveness and toxicity of high-dose sequential chemotherapy (HDS) as salvage therapy in patients with advanced-stage Hodgkin lymphoma.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis on 77 patients receiving HDS between 1998 and 2006. Patients enrolled were in disease progression or relapsed disease, or did not achieve a complete remission after first-line treatment. HDS consisted of the sequential administration of cyclophosphamide and granulocyte colony-stimulating factor with stem cell harvesting, followed by methotrexate plus vincristine and etoposide.

RESULTS

The majority of patients had stage III/IV (64%) and B symptoms (71.4%). Disease status improvement after HDS was observed in 24 of 57 patients (42%) previously in disease progression or relapse. HDS-related deaths occurred in 8 of 77 patients (10.4%). Four patients (5.2%) developed acute myeloid leukemia/myelodysplastic syndrome. Overall, disease-free and progression-free survival was 27%, 57%, and 25%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Despite the treatment-related mortality, HDS is feasible, with satisfactory response rates, even in patients with poor prognosis.

Long-term follow-up study on the role of serum CA-125 as a prognostic factor in 221 newly diagnosed patients with Hodgkin's lymphoma

The present study has explored the possible value of sCA-125 as a prognostic factor in Hodgkin's lymphoma (HL). From August 1992 to June 2005 sCA-125 was measured at presentation and at the end of the treatments in 221 newly diagnosed adult patients with HL. In this study 90/221 (41%) patients showed a value greater than the standard upper limit of 35 U/ml, and 79/90 (88%) with an abnormal sCA-125 were at an advanced stage of the disease. Patients with elevated sCA-125 showed a significant reduction in complete remission (CR) rate (76%vs. 98%; p < 0.0001). Failure of normalization of sCA-125 during the treatment revealed that CR had not been reached. Furthermore, no traces of the glycoprotein sCA-125 were found in a series of paraffin-embedded samples coming from 15 patients of this study. In addition, soluble CA-125 was not detected in supernatants coming from four different Hodgkin-derived cell lines. The long-term follow-up revealed that the group of patients with sCA-125 lower than 35 U/ml, at diagnosis, had an estimated 92% event free survival (EFS) rate and a 94% overall survival (OS) rate, while the group of patients with sCA-125 greater than 35 U/ml had only a 60% EFS rate (log-rank 33.43, p < 0.0001) and a 70% OS rate (log-rank 23.52, p < 0.0001). Extranodal disease, severe lymphocytopenia and age proved to be the only standard factors that could represent a poor chance to survive. At multivariate analysis, high sCA-125, E sites >1 and age were the only independent factors producing poor outcomes in terms of CR, EFS and OS. Therefore, we believe that sCA-125 is a simple, reliable and reproducible tool, which may improve existing prognostic systems.

Lymphoma of the spleen

Splenic involvement in lymphoma is common, although it is detected with limited accuracy using most conventionally employed imaging techniques. This article reviews the spectrum of appearances of splenic lymphoma using both routine and more recently developed techniques, including functional imaging. The importance of accurate splenic imaging in lymphoma assessment is also discussed, which has changed in recent years due to advances in therapy resulting in improvements in overall prognosis for both advanced and relapsed disease.

The expression of Ki-67 and Bcl-2 in hodgkin’s lymphoma: Correlation with the international prognostic score and bulky disease

The prognosis of Hodgkin's lymphoma has been improved over last 10 yr due to identification of prognostic parameters. These factors may predict the clinical outcome and therefore may have influence on the selection of appropriate treatment. In a cohort of 40 patients with Hodgkin's lymphoma of nodular sclerosis subtype, treated with ABVD (doxorubicin, bleomycin, vinblastine, dacarbazine) regimen, we analyzed prognostic relevance of the expression of Ki-67 and Bcl-2 at diagnosis as well as other clinical parameters: International Prognostic Score, bulky disease, tissue eosinophilia, and high erythrocyte sedimentation rate. Significance was tested according to response rate and overall survival. Patients with a high proliferative fraction (Ki-67 > 50%) had worse overall survival compared with those with low proliferation, 56% vs 91%. There was a correlation between Ki-67 positivity and the achievement of complete remission. Cox's multivariate model revealed that Ki-67 positivity at threshold of 50% was a significant independent prognostic factor. The Bcl-2 expression in less than 50% of tumor cells was detected in 65.5% of patients, and in a majority of cases it was associated with complete remission. Patients with high IPS had more progressive disease and shorter survival. Bulky disease, tissue eosinophilia, and high erythrocyte sedimentation rate had no significant influence on complete remission and survival. However, there was a marked divergence in survival curves after 4 yr follow-up for each of these parameters. Patients with high Ki-67, IPS > 3, bulky disease, tissue eosinophilia, and high sedimentation rate are at a higher risk of treatment failure and relapse and therefore might be eligible for other aggressive therapeutic approach.

Prognostic factors and treatment outcome in childhood Hodgkin disease

BACKGROUND

The goals of this study included: (1) Identification of factors prognostic for event-free survival (EFS) and overall survival (OS), and (2) Definition of risk groups for risk adapted therapy in children with Hodgkin disease (HD).

PROCEDURE

From 1991 to 2003, 69 children with newly diagnosed, untreated biopsy-proven stage I-IV HD were treated with chemotherapy (CT) and low-dose involved field radiotherapy (LD-IFRT). The relationship of pretreatment factors to EFS and OS was analyzed by univariate and multivariate analysis.

RESULTS

The 5-year EFS and OS for all patients were 90.77% and 96.22%, respectively with a median follow-up of 73 months (3-137 months). Male to female ratio was 3:1 and 21 children (32.3%) were less than 7 years of age. Mixed cellularity was the predominant histologic subtype (38.5%). Factors associated with inferior EFS by univariate analysis were extranodal disease, hemoglobin level <11 g/dl, number of involved lymph node regions and stage. By multivariate analysis only stage IV disease was significant.

CONCLUSION

Our study confirms that excellent results are achievable with combined modality therapy in childhood HD. In order to use risk-adapted therapy in children with HD, clinical prognostic factors should be validated with large, multicentered prospective clinical studies.

Glutathione S-transferase P1 genotype and prognosis in Hodgkin's lymphoma

PURPOSE

Glutathione S-transferase P1 (GSTP1) is a member of the GST enzyme superfamily that is important for the detoxification of several cytotoxic drugs and their by-products. A single nucleotide polymorphism results in the substitution of isoleucine (Ile) to valine (Val) at codon 105, causing a metabolically less active variant of the enzyme. We assessed the impact of the GSTP1 codon 105 genotype on treatment outcome in patients with Hodgkin's lymphoma.

EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN

The Ile(105)Val polymorphism in the GSTP1 gene was analyzed using a PCR-RFLP technique. Ninety-seven patients with Hodgkin's lymphoma were included and associations with patient characteristics and treatment outcome were analyzed.

RESULTS

The GSTP1 Ile(105)Val polymorphism was associated in a dose-dependent fashion with an improved failure-free survival in patients with Hodgkin's lymphoma (P = 0.02). The probability of 5-year survival for patients homozygous for the (105)Val/(105)Val GSTP1 genotype was 100%, for heterozygous patients 74% (95% confidence interval, 56-85), and for patients homozygous for the (105)Ile/(105)Ile genotype 43% (95% confidence interval, 23-61). The Cox multivariate analysis showed that GSTP1 codon 105 genotype was an independent prognostic factor.

CONCLUSIONS

The GSTP1 genotype predicts clinical outcome in patients with Hodgkin's lymphoma.

Influence of Biologic Markers on the Outcome of Hodgkin's Lymphoma: A Study by the Spanish Hodgkin’s Lymphoma Study Group

Purpose

Current therapies fail to cure a significant proportion of patients with Hodgkin's lymphoma (HL). Predictive systems for stratification of the disease and selection of treatment based on sets of clinical variables, such as the international prognostic score (IPS), are of relatively small practical value. The predictive use of biologic parameters has so far provided limited and inconsistent results. Here we explore the influence of a set of molecular markers on the outcome of HL.

Patients and Methods

Forty molecular markers involved in B-cell differentiation and activation, signal transduction, cell cycle, and apoptosis control were analyzed in 259 classic HL patient cases by using tissue microarrays. Univariate analysis was performed to evaluate the influence of markers on favorable outcome (complete remission of > 12 months). Significant variables were included in a multivariate logistic regression analysis, and the probability of favorable outcome was estimated.

Results

Univariate analysis revealed four molecular markers that predicted outcome, and the multivariate analysis showed p53, Bcl-XL, and terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase–mediated deoxyuridine triphosphate-biotin nick-end labeling (TUNEL) to have independent significance. The combination of these factors determined two groups of patients (group I, zero to one factor; group II, two to three factors) with a probability of a favorable outcome of .948 and .687, respectively. A multivariate Cox's model shows that these biologic risk groups have special predictive power in low-IPS patients.

Conclusion

The data from this exploratory study suggest that the accumulation of molecular events seems to influence the outcome of HL, particularly in the low-IPS group.

Bystander cells and prognosis in Hodgkin lymphoma. Review based on a doctoral thesis

Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) is characterised histologically by a minority of malignant Hodgkin and Reed-Sternberg (HRS) cells surrounded by benign cells, and clinically by a relatively good prognosis. The treatment, however, leads to a risk of serious side effects. Knowledge about the biology of the disease, particularly the interaction between the HRS cells and the surrounding cells, is essential in order to improve diagnosis and treatment. HL patients with abundant eosinophils in the tumours have a poor prognosis, therefore the eosinophil derived protein eosinophil cationic protein (ECP) was studied. Serum-ECP (S-ECP) was elevated in most HL patients. It correlated to number of tumour eosinophils, nodular sclerosis (NS) histology, and the negative prognostic factors high erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) and blood leukocyte count (WBC). A polymorphism in the ECP gene (434(G>C)) was identified and the 434GG genotype correlated to NS histology and high ESR. The poor prognosis in patients with abundant eosinophils in the tumours has been proposed to depend on HRS cell stimulation by the eosinophils via a CD30 ligand (CD30L)-CD30 interaction. However, CD30L mRNA and protein were detected in mast cells and the predominant CD30L expressing cell in HL is the mast cell. Mast cells were shown to stimulate HRS cell lines via CD30L-CD30 interaction. The number of mast cells in HL tumours correlated to worse relapse-free survival, NS histology, high WBC, and low blood haemoglobin. Survival in patients with early and intermediate stage HL, diagnosed between 1985 and 1992, was generally favourable and comparatively limited treatment was sufficient to produce acceptable results for most stages. The majority of relapses could be salvaged. Patients treated with a short course of chemotherapy and radiotherapy had an excellent outcome. In conclusion prognosis is favourable in early and intermediate stages and there are possibilities for further improvements based on the fact that mast cells and eosinophils affect the biology and prognosis of HL.

Prognostic factors in pediatric Hodgkin disease

The sensitivity of pediatric Hodgkin disease to radiation and chemotherapy has resulted in cure for most children and adolescents who have been diagnosed in the past three decades. Identification of prognostic factors in clinical trials has allowed for tailoring of therapeutic approaches to improve outcome in sequential trials. Tumor burden, symptoms, clinical features, pathology, response to therapy, biology, and host factors are reviewed in this context. New developments should be directed toward identification of factors associated with biologic mechanisms of disease to facilitate the development of biologically targeted therapies that will be more efficacious and less toxic.