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Laczi M, Sarkadi F, Herényi M, Nagy G, Hegyi G, Jablonszky M, Könczey R, Krenhardt K, Markó G, Rosivall B, Szász E, Szöllősi E, Tóth L, Zsebők S, Török J. Responses in the breeding parameters of the collared flycatcher to the changing climate. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 926:171945. [PMID: 38531456 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171945] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/27/2023] [Revised: 03/06/2024] [Accepted: 03/22/2024] [Indexed: 03/28/2024]
Abstract
Global climate change involves various aspects of climate, including precipitation changes and declining surface wind speeds, but studies investigating biological responses have often focused on the impacts of rising temperatures. Additionally, related long-term studies on bird reproduction tend to concentrate on breeding onset, even though other aspects of breeding could also be sensitive to the diverse weather aspects. This study aimed to explore how multiple aspects of breeding (breeding onset, hatching delay, breeding season length, clutch size, fledgling number) were associated with different weather components. We used an almost four-decade-long dataset to investigate the various aspects of breeding parameters of a collared flycatcher (Ficedula albicollis) population in the Carpathian Basin. Analyses revealed some considerable associations, for example, breeding seasons lengthened with the amount of daily precipitation, and clutch size increased with the number of cool days. Parallel and opposing changes in the correlated pairs of breeding and weather parameters were also observed. The phenological mismatch between prey availability and breeding time slightly increased, and fledgling number strongly decreased with increasing mistiming. Our results highlighted the intricate interplay between climate change and the reproductive patterns of migratory birds, emphasizing the need for a holistic approach. The results also underscored the potential threats posed by climate change to bird populations and the importance of adaptive responses to changing environmental conditions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Miklós Laczi
- HUN-REN-ELTE-MTM Integrative Ecology Research Group, ELTE Eötvös Loránd University, Pázmány Péter sétány 1/C, H-1117 Budapest, Hungary; Behavioural Ecology Group, Department of Systematic Zoology and Ecology, ELTE Eötvös Loránd University, Pázmány Péter sétány 1/C, H-1117 Budapest, Hungary; The Barn Owl Foundation, Temesvári út 8., H-8744 Orosztony, Hungary.
| | - Fanni Sarkadi
- Behavioural Ecology Group, Department of Systematic Zoology and Ecology, ELTE Eötvös Loránd University, Pázmány Péter sétány 1/C, H-1117 Budapest, Hungary; Doctoral School of Biology, Institute of Biology, ELTE Eötvös Loránd University, Pázmány Péter sétány 1/C, H-1117 Budapest, Hungary.
| | - Márton Herényi
- Behavioural Ecology Group, Department of Systematic Zoology and Ecology, ELTE Eötvös Loránd University, Pázmány Péter sétány 1/C, H-1117 Budapest, Hungary; Department of Zoology and Ecology, Institute for Wildlife Management and Nature Conservation, Hungarian University of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Páter Károly utca 1, H-2103 Gödöllő, Hungary.
| | - Gergely Nagy
- Behavioural Ecology Group, Department of Systematic Zoology and Ecology, ELTE Eötvös Loránd University, Pázmány Péter sétány 1/C, H-1117 Budapest, Hungary; Evolutionary Ecology Research Group, Institute of Ecology and Botany, Centre for Ecological Research, Alkotmány út 4., H-2163 Vácrátót, Hungary.
| | - Gergely Hegyi
- HUN-REN-ELTE-MTM Integrative Ecology Research Group, ELTE Eötvös Loránd University, Pázmány Péter sétány 1/C, H-1117 Budapest, Hungary; Behavioural Ecology Group, Department of Systematic Zoology and Ecology, ELTE Eötvös Loránd University, Pázmány Péter sétány 1/C, H-1117 Budapest, Hungary.
| | - Mónika Jablonszky
- Behavioural Ecology Group, Department of Systematic Zoology and Ecology, ELTE Eötvös Loránd University, Pázmány Péter sétány 1/C, H-1117 Budapest, Hungary; Evolutionary Ecology Research Group, Institute of Ecology and Botany, Centre for Ecological Research, Alkotmány út 4., H-2163 Vácrátót, Hungary.
| | - Réka Könczey
- Hungarian Institute for Educational Research and Development, Eszterházy Károly University, Rákóczi út 70, H-1074 Budapest, Hungary
| | - Katalin Krenhardt
- Behavioural Ecology Group, Department of Systematic Zoology and Ecology, ELTE Eötvös Loránd University, Pázmány Péter sétány 1/C, H-1117 Budapest, Hungary; Evolutionary Ecology Research Group, Institute of Ecology and Botany, Centre for Ecological Research, Alkotmány út 4., H-2163 Vácrátót, Hungary.
| | - Gábor Markó
- Department of Plant Pathology, Institute of Plant Protection, Hungarian University of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Ménesi út 44., H-1118 Budapest, Hungary.
| | - Balázs Rosivall
- Behavioural Ecology Group, Department of Systematic Zoology and Ecology, ELTE Eötvös Loránd University, Pázmány Péter sétány 1/C, H-1117 Budapest, Hungary.
| | - Eszter Szász
- Behavioural Ecology Group, Department of Systematic Zoology and Ecology, ELTE Eötvös Loránd University, Pázmány Péter sétány 1/C, H-1117 Budapest, Hungary.
| | - Eszter Szöllősi
- Behavioural Ecology Group, Department of Systematic Zoology and Ecology, ELTE Eötvös Loránd University, Pázmány Péter sétány 1/C, H-1117 Budapest, Hungary.
| | - László Tóth
- Institute for Rural Development and Landscape Management, Faculty of Agricultural and Rural Development, Eszterházy Károly University, Mátrai út 36., H-3200 Gyöngyös, Hungary.
| | - Sándor Zsebők
- Behavioural Ecology Group, Department of Systematic Zoology and Ecology, ELTE Eötvös Loránd University, Pázmány Péter sétány 1/C, H-1117 Budapest, Hungary; Evolutionary Ecology Research Group, Institute of Ecology and Botany, Centre for Ecological Research, Alkotmány út 4., H-2163 Vácrátót, Hungary.
| | - János Török
- HUN-REN-ELTE-MTM Integrative Ecology Research Group, ELTE Eötvös Loránd University, Pázmány Péter sétány 1/C, H-1117 Budapest, Hungary; Behavioural Ecology Group, Department of Systematic Zoology and Ecology, ELTE Eötvös Loránd University, Pázmány Péter sétány 1/C, H-1117 Budapest, Hungary.
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D'Amelio PB, Covas R, Ferreira AC, Fortuna R, Silva LR, Theron F, Rybak F, Doutrelant C. Benefits of Pair-Bond Duration on Reproduction in a Lifelong Monogamous Cooperative Passerine. Am Nat 2024; 203:576-589. [PMID: 38635359 DOI: 10.1086/729436] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/20/2024]
Abstract
AbstractLong-term social and genetic monogamy is rare in animals except birds, but even in birds it is infrequent and poorly understood. We investigated possible advantages of monogamy in a colonial, facultative cooperatively breeding bird from an arid, unpredictable environment, the sociable weaver (Philetairus socius). We documented divorce and extrapair paternity of 703 pairs over 10 years and separated effects of pair duration from breeding experience by analyzing longitudinal and cross-sectional datasets. Parts of the colonies were protected from nest predation, thereby limiting its stochastic and thus confounding effect on fitness measures. We found that 6.4% of sociable weaver pairs divorced and 2.2% of young were extrapair. Longer pair-bonds were associated with more clutches and fledglings per season and with reproducing earlier and later in the season, when snake predation is lower, but not with increased egg or fledgling mass or with nestling survival. Finally, the number of helpers at the nest increased with pair-bond duration. Results were similar for protected and unprotected nests. We suggest that long-term monogamy is associated with a better capacity for exploiting a temporally unpredictable environment and helps to form larger groups. These results can contribute to our understanding of why long-term monogamy is frequently associated with unpredictable environments and cooperation.
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Wysocki D, Witkowska M, Walczakiewicz S. Factors affecting fledglings survival in urban population of European blackbirds in Szczecin (NW Poland). Sci Rep 2023; 13:18723. [PMID: 37907582 PMCID: PMC10618181 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-46027-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/02/2023] [Accepted: 10/26/2023] [Indexed: 11/02/2023] Open
Abstract
The first-year survival alters population growth rates and viability in birds, however this period remains the least-studied of the avian life stages. Here we present results of the 19 years of study of fledglings apparent survival of urban population of European blackbird Turdus merula in Szczecin (NW Poland). We checked for possible influence on survival of several factors, including parental traits, such as parental age, their previous breeding experience, natal brood size, presence of another brood in a given breeding season and the time gap between clutches of a particular pair. Moreover, we incorporate into our analysis fledging's hierarchy in the brood, its fledging time in the breeding season, temperature and precipitation during the first months of life. We also investigated changes in the apparent survival over 19 years. We found that the individual's hierarchy in the nest, and the day of fledging had the strongest influence on the apparent survival, with heavier birds fledged earlier in the season surviving better. Increase in parental age and previous breeding experience of the pair could result in enhanced survival. Surprisingly increased precipitation lowered fledglings' survival. During the 19 years of the study fledglings' apparent survival dropped about 10%.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dariusz Wysocki
- Institute of Marine and Environmental Sciences, University of Szczecin, Szczecin, Poland.
| | - Marta Witkowska
- Ornithology Unit, Department of Vertebrate Ecology and Zoology, Faculty of Biology, University of Gdańsk, Gdańsk, Poland
| | - Szymon Walczakiewicz
- Institute of Marine and Environmental Sciences, University of Szczecin, Szczecin, Poland
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Zheng J, Komdeur J, Weissing FJ. Effects of season length and uniparental care efficacy on the evolution of parental care. J Anim Ecol 2023; 92:1719-1729. [PMID: 37335054 DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.13967] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/07/2022] [Accepted: 04/26/2023] [Indexed: 06/21/2023]
Abstract
Parental care patterns differ enormously among and even within species. This is exemplified by Chinese penduline tits Remiz consobrinus, where biparental care, female-only care, male-only care and biparental desertion all occur in the same population; moreover, the distribution of these care patterns differs systematically between populations. The eco-evolutionary determinants of this diversity are largely unknown. We developed an individual-based model that allows us to investigate the effects of season length and offspring needs (expressed by the efficacy with which a clutch can be raised by a single parent) on the evolution of parental care patterns. The model is largely conceptual, aiming at general conclusions. However, to keep the model realistic, its set-up and the choice of parameters are motivated by field studies on Chinese penduline tits. Exploring a wide range of parameters, we investigate how parental care patterns are affected by season length and offspring needs and whether and under what conditions diverse parental care patterns can stably coexist. We report five main findings. First, under a broad range of conditions, different care patterns (e.g. male care and biparental care) coexist at equilibrium. Second, for the same parameters, alternative evolutionary equilibria are possible; this can explain differences in care patterns across populations. Third, rapid evolutionary transitions can occur between alternative equilibria; this can explain the often-reported evolutionary lability of parental care patterns. Fourth, season length has a strong but nonmonotonic effect on the evolved care patterns. Fifth, when uniparental care efficacy is low, biparental care tends to evolve; however, in many scenarios uniparental care is still common at equilibrium. In addition, our study sheds new light on Trivers' hypothesis that the sex with the highest prezygotic investment is predestined to invest more postzygotically as well. Our study highlights that diversity in parental care can readily evolve and it shows that even in the absence of environmental change parental care patterns can be evolutionary labile. In the presence of directional environmental change, systematic shifts in care patterns are to be expected.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jia Zheng
- Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Biodiversity Sciences and Ecological Engineering, College of Life Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
- Groningen Institute for Evolutionary Life Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands
| | - Jan Komdeur
- Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Biodiversity Sciences and Ecological Engineering, College of Life Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
- Groningen Institute for Evolutionary Life Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands
| | - Franz J Weissing
- Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Biodiversity Sciences and Ecological Engineering, College of Life Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
- Groningen Institute for Evolutionary Life Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands
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Cholewa M, Jankowiak Ł, Szenejko M, Dybus A, Śmietana P, Wysocki D. The effects of parental age difference on the offspring sex and fitness of European blackbirds. PeerJ 2021; 9:e10858. [PMID: 33828905 PMCID: PMC7996069 DOI: 10.7717/peerj.10858] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/10/2020] [Accepted: 01/07/2021] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Many studies of birds have indicated that offspring sex ratios can vary with environmental and parental traits. On the basis of long-term research, we first evaluated the possible influence of parental age difference and brood characteristics on offspring sex and fitness in multi-brooded Blackbirds Turdus merula. Methodology The study was conducted in the city-centre Stefan Żeromski Park in Szczecin, NW Poland, where the local population of Blackbirds has been studied since 1996. Data on the offspring sex and fitness were collected in five years, 2005-2007 and 2016-2017. During the breeding season we inspected the study area to locate the pairs' territories and to track their nests and clutches. Results We found that the overall sex ratio did not differ statistically from 50:50, but that younger females bonded with older mates did tend to produce more sons, probably because of the greater fitness of male descendants. Accordingly, the sons' breeding success increased with the father's age, but this relationship was close to non-linear, which may indicate that the transgenerational effect of paternal senescence could negatively affect progeny fitness despite the high-quality of older fathers. Older females mated with younger males produced more daughters, which could have been due to the lesser attractiveness of the males and the mothers' poorer condition caused by accelerated senescence. We found that neither offspring hatching sequence nor hatching date or clutch sequence were significant for sex determination. Conclusions We consider that in our Blackbird population, parental age could make a more significant contribution to shaping offspring sex and reproductive success.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marta Cholewa
- Institute of Biology, University of Szczecin, Szczecin, Poland
| | | | - Magdalena Szenejko
- Institute of Marine and Environmental Sciences, University of Szczecin, Szczecin, Poland.,Molecular Biology and Biotechnology Centre, University of Szczecin, Szczecin, Poland
| | - Andrzej Dybus
- Department of Genetics, Faculty of Biotechnology and Animal Husbandry, West Pomeranian University of Technology, Szczecin, Poland
| | - Przemysław Śmietana
- Institute of Marine and Environmental Sciences, University of Szczecin, Szczecin, Poland
| | - Dariusz Wysocki
- Institute of Marine and Environmental Sciences, University of Szczecin, Szczecin, Poland
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Fan Q, E M, Wei Y, Sun W, Wang H. Mate Choice in Double-Breeding Female Great Tits ( Parus Major): Good Males or Compatible Males. Animals (Basel) 2021; 11:ani11010140. [PMID: 33440643 PMCID: PMC7826884 DOI: 10.3390/ani11010140] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/17/2020] [Revised: 01/04/2021] [Accepted: 01/06/2021] [Indexed: 12/28/2022] Open
Abstract
Simple Summary Double breeding is a common reproductive strategy among temperate passerines to increase annual fecundity. To produce two clutches in the same breeding season and to ensure offspring quality, choosing a good mate is important for females. Uncovering the method used in social mate choice for genetic benefits adopted by double-breeding females would provide a better understanding of the life history and rules of female choice. In the present study, we tested the effects of the date of the first egg of the first brood and of female quality on double breeding, and good genes and genetic compatibility hypotheses on mate choice for double breeding female great tits (Parus major) in a population breeding inside nest boxes of Zuojia Natural Reserve in northeast China. The date of the first egg of the first brood did not affect initiation of a second brood, and female individual heterozygosity slightly influenced initiation of a second breeding. Female great tits choose males with both compatible genes and good genes in double-breeding mating. Double-breeding females prefer males with large breast stripes, high heterozygosity, and lower relatedness. The number of offspring of the first clutch did not affect the pairing status of male great tits in double breeding. The genetic quality of offspring from double-breeding pairs was higher than that of those from single-breeding pairs (higher heterozygosity and lower individual F). Abstract Producing two broods within the same season may be a good strategy by which short-lived species can maximize reproductive success. To produce two clutches in the same breeding season and to ensure offspring quality, choosing a good mate is important for females. Previous studies on double breeding focused on the associated influencing factors, and few studies examined how females choose social mates. Good genes and genetic compatibility are the two main hypotheses of the genetic benefit that females obtain from choosing mates. Uncovering the method used in mate choice for genetic benefits adopted by double-breeding females would provide a better understanding of the life history and rules of female choice. The great tit is an optionally double-breeding species in temperate-latitude populations. Here, we used a dataset for a Chinese population monitored between 2014 and 2016 to test two hypotheses on double-breeding female mate choice. A total of 30.1% of the breeding pairs initiated second breeding attempts, always remating with the same mate. The date of the first egg of the first brood did not affect initiation of a second brood, and female individual heterozygosity slightly influenced initiation of a second breeding. Female great tits choose males with both compatible genes and good genes in double-breeding mating. Double-breeding females prefer males with large breast stripes, high heterozygosity, and lower relatedness, while tarsus length, repertoire size, and individual F are not the main factors considered by females when selecting males for double breeding. The number of offspring of the first clutch did not affect the pairing status of male great tits in double breeding. The genetic quality of offspring from double-breeding pairs was higher than that of those from single-breeding pairs (higher heterozygosity and lower individual F). Taken together, our results showed that double breeding female great tits adopt multiple methods for genetic benefits to choose mates.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qianxi Fan
- Jilin Engineering Laboratory for Avian Ecology and Conservation Genetics, School of Life Sciences, Northeast Normal University, Renmin Street 5268, Changchun 130024, China; (Q.F.); (M.E); (Y.W.)
- Key Laboratory for Vegetation Ecology, Ministry of Education, Institute of Grassland Science, Northeast Normal University, Renmin Street 5268, Changchun 130024, China
| | - Mingju E
- Jilin Engineering Laboratory for Avian Ecology and Conservation Genetics, School of Life Sciences, Northeast Normal University, Renmin Street 5268, Changchun 130024, China; (Q.F.); (M.E); (Y.W.)
- School of Life Sciences, Changchun Normal University, 677 Changjibei Road, Changchun 130032, China
| | - Yusheng Wei
- Jilin Engineering Laboratory for Avian Ecology and Conservation Genetics, School of Life Sciences, Northeast Normal University, Renmin Street 5268, Changchun 130024, China; (Q.F.); (M.E); (Y.W.)
| | - Wei Sun
- Key Laboratory for Vegetation Ecology, Ministry of Education, Institute of Grassland Science, Northeast Normal University, Renmin Street 5268, Changchun 130024, China
- Correspondence: (W.S.); (H.W.)
| | - Haitao Wang
- Jilin Engineering Laboratory for Avian Ecology and Conservation Genetics, School of Life Sciences, Northeast Normal University, Renmin Street 5268, Changchun 130024, China; (Q.F.); (M.E); (Y.W.)
- Jilin Provincial Key Laboratory of Animal Resource Conservation and Utilization, School of Life Sciences, Northeast Normal University, Renmin Street 5268, Changchun 130024, China
- Correspondence: (W.S.); (H.W.)
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Higgott CG, Evans KL, Hatchwell BJ. Incubation in a Temperate Passerine: Do Environmental Conditions Affect Incubation Period Duration and Hatching Success? Front Ecol Evol 2020. [DOI: 10.3389/fevo.2020.542179] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
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Wysocki D, Jankowiak Ł, Cholewa M, Zyskowski D. Natal conditions, lifespan and lifetime reproductive success of European blackbirds. Behav Ecol 2019. [DOI: 10.1093/beheco/arz139] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/14/2022] Open
Abstract
Abstract
Even though much has been published in recent years on the factors affecting the lifespan and lifetime reproductive success of birds, there are still gaps in our knowledge. Here, we present the results of a long-term study of European blackbirds which examined the effect of natal conditions on lifespan and lifetime reproductive success (expressed by the number of fledglings) of 152 nestlings (72 males and 80 females) ringed in the Stefan Żeromski Park in Szczecin (NW Poland). We have complete information regarding parental age, family brood (first-egg laying date, clutch size, and hatching sequence), bird size, lifetime reproductive success, pair density and weather conditions during the natal year. For males, total fledgling production was the smaller, the later the laying date of the family brood, but increased with mean daily precipitation and pair density in the natal year. In the case of females, we did not find any significant relationships between their lifetime reproductive success and the above parameters. Male lifespan increased with mean daily precipitation and bird density, but only pair density had a positive effect on female lifespan. We suggest that for females, genetic factors could be more important for their reproductive success than for males. In addition, a blackbird’s lifespan depends strongly on environmental factors.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dariusz Wysocki
- Faculty of Geosciences, Institute for Marine and Environmental Sciences, University of Szczecin, Mickiewicza, Szczecin, Poland
| | - Łukasz Jankowiak
- Faculty of Biology, Institute for Research on Biodiversity, University of Szczecin, Wąska, Szczecin, Poland
| | - Marta Cholewa
- Faculty of Biology, Institute for Research on Biodiversity, University of Szczecin, Wąska, Szczecin, Poland
| | - Dawid Zyskowski
- Faculty of Biology, Institute for Research on Biodiversity, University of Szczecin, Wąska, Szczecin, Poland
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Facultative multiple breeding as a female conditional strategy in Japanese tits: partner's quality affects the initiation of second clutches. Ecol Res 2018. [DOI: 10.1007/s11284-018-1565-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/18/2022]
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Tarwater CE, Arcese P. Individual fitness and the effects of a changing climate on the cessation and length of the breeding period using a 34-year study of a temperate songbird. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2018; 24:1212-1223. [PMID: 28869682 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13889] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/18/2017] [Accepted: 08/17/2017] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
Studies of the phenological responses of animals to climate change typically emphasize the initiation of breeding although climatic effects on the cessation and length of the breeding period may be as or more influential of fitness. We quantified links between climate, the cessation and length of the breeding period, and individual survival and reproduction using a 34-year study of a resident song sparrow (Melospiza melodia) population subject to dramatic variation in climate. We show that the cessation and length of the breeding period varied strongly across years, and predicted female annual fecundity but not survival. Breeding period length was more influential of fecundity than initiation or cessation of breeding alone. Warmer annual temperature and drier winters and summers predicted an earlier cessation of breeding. Population density, the date breeding was initiated, a female's history of breeding success, and the number of breeding attempts initiated previously also predicted the cessation of breeding annually, indicating that climatic, population, and individual factors may interact to affect breeding phenology. Linking climate projections to our model results suggests that females will both initiate and cease breeding earlier in the future; this will have opposite effects on individual reproductive rate because breeding earlier is expected to increase fecundity, whereas ceasing breeding earlier should reduce it. Identifying factors affecting the cessation and length of the breeding period in multiparous species may be essential to predicting individual fitness and population demography. Given a rich history of studies on the initiation of breeding in free-living species, re-visiting those data to estimate climatic effects on the cessation and length of breeding should improve our ability to predict the impacts of climate change on multiparous species.
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Affiliation(s)
- Corey E Tarwater
- Department of Forest and Conservation Sciences, University of British Columbia Vancouver, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Peter Arcese
- Department of Forest and Conservation Sciences, University of British Columbia Vancouver, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
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