Responses in the breeding parameters of the collared flycatcher to the changing climate

Global climate change involves various aspects of climate, including precipitation changes and declining surface wind speeds, but studies investigating biological responses have often focused on the impacts of rising temperatures. Additionally, related long-term studies on bird reproduction tend to concentrate on breeding onset, even though other aspects of breeding could also be sensitive to the diverse weather aspects. This study aimed to explore how multiple aspects of breeding (breeding onset, hatching delay, breeding season length, clutch size, fledgling number) were associated with different weather components. We used an almost four-decade-long dataset to investigate the various aspects of breeding parameters of a collared flycatcher (Ficedula albicollis) population in the Carpathian Basin. Analyses revealed some considerable associations, for example, breeding seasons lengthened with the amount of daily precipitation, and clutch size increased with the number of cool days. Parallel and opposing changes in the correlated pairs of breeding and weather parameters were also observed. The phenological mismatch between prey availability and breeding time slightly increased, and fledgling number strongly decreased with increasing mistiming. Our results highlighted the intricate interplay between climate change and the reproductive patterns of migratory birds, emphasizing the need for a holistic approach. The results also underscored the potential threats posed by climate change to bird populations and the importance of adaptive responses to changing environmental conditions.

Seasonal variation of malaria cases in children aged less than 5 years old following weather change in Zomba district, Malawi

BACKGROUND

Malaria is seasonal and this may influence the number of children being treated as outpatients in hospitals. The objective of this study was to investigate the degree of seasonality in malaria in lakeshore and highland areas of Zomba district Malawi, and influence of climatic factors on incidence of malaria.

METHODS

Secondary data on malaria surveillance numbers and dates of treatment of children <5 years of age (n = 374,246) were extracted from the Zomba health information system for the period 2012-2016, while data on climatic variables from 2012 to 2015 were obtained from meteorological department. STATA version 13 was used to analyse data using non-linear time series correlation test to suggest a predictor model of malaria epidemic over explanatory variable (rainfall, temperature and humidity).

RESULTS

Malaria cases of children <5 years of age in Zomba district accounts for 45% of general morbidity. There was no difference in seasonality of malaria in highland compared to lakeshore in Zomba district. This study also found that an increase in average temperature and relative humidity was associated of malaria incidence in children <5 year of age in Zomba district. On the other hand, the difference of maximum and minimum temperature (diurnal temperature range), had a strong negative association (correlation coefficients of R² = 0.563 [All Zomba] β = -1295.57 95% CI -1683.38 to -907.75 p value <0.001, R² = 0.395 [Zomba Highlands] β = -137.74 95% CI -195.00 to -80.47 p value <0.001 and R² = 0.470 [Zomba Lakeshores] β = -263.05 95% CI -357.47 to -168.63 p value <0.001) with malaria incidence of children <5 year in Zomba district, Malawi.

CONCLUSION

The diminishing of malaria seasonality, regardless of strong rainfall seasonality, and marginal drop of malaria incidence in Zomba can be explained by weather variation. Implementation of seasonal chemoprevention of malaria in Zomba could be questionable due to reduced seasonality of malaria. The lower diurnal temperature range contributed to high malaria incidence and this must be further investigated.