Transcompp: understanding phenotypic plasticity by estimating Markov transition rates for cell state transitions

Phenotypic noise and plasticity in cancer evolution

Non-genetic alterations can produce changes in a cell's phenotype. In cancer, these phenomena can influence a cell's fitness by conferring access to heritable, beneficial phenotypes. Herein, we argue that current discussions of 'phenotypic plasticity' in cancer evolution ignore a salient feature of the original definition: namely, that it occurs in response to an environmental change. We suggest 'phenotypic noise' be used to distinguish non-genetic changes in phenotype that occur independently from the environment. We discuss the conceptual and methodological techniques used to identify these phenomena during cancer evolution. We propose that the distinction will guide efforts to define mechanisms of phenotype change, accelerate translational work to manipulate phenotypes through treatment, and, ultimately, improve patient outcomes.

Population dynamics of EMT elucidates the timing and distribution of phenotypic intra-tumoral heterogeneity

The Epithelial-to-Mesenchymal Transition (EMT) is a hallmark of cancer metastasis and morbidity. EMT is a non-binary process, and cells can be stably arrested en route to EMT in an intermediate hybrid state associated with enhanced tumor aggressiveness and worse patient outcomes. Understanding EMT progression in detail will provide fundamental insights into the mechanisms underlying metastasis. Despite increasingly available single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) data that enable in-depth analyses of EMT at the single-cell resolution, current inferential approaches are limited to bulk microarray data. There is thus a great need for computational frameworks to systematically infer and predict the timing and distribution of EMT-related states at single-cell resolution. Here, we develop a computational framework for reliable inference and prediction of EMT-related trajectories from scRNA-seq data. Our model can be utilized across a variety of applications to predict the timing and distribution of EMT from single-cell sequencing data.

Statistical inference of the rates of cell proliferation and phenotypic switching in cancer

Recent evidence suggests that nongenetic (epigenetic) mechanisms play an important role at all stages of cancer evolution. In many cancers, these mechanisms have been observed to induce dynamic switching between two or more cell states, which commonly show differential responses to drug treatments. To understand how these cancers evolve over time, and how they respond to treatment, we need to understand the state-dependent rates of cell proliferation and phenotypic switching. In this work, we propose a rigorous statistical framework for estimating these parameters, using data from commonly performed cell line experiments, where phenotypes are sorted and expanded in culture. The framework explicitly models the stochastic dynamics of cell division, cell death and phenotypic switching, and it provides likelihood-based confidence intervals for the model parameters. The input data can be either the fraction of cells or the number of cells in each state at one or more time points. Through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical simulations, we show that when cell fraction data is used, the rates of switching may be the only parameters that can be estimated accurately. On the other hand, using cell number data enables accurate estimation of the net division rate for each phenotype, and it can even enable estimation of the state-dependent rates of cell division and cell death. We conclude by applying our framework to a publicly available dataset.

Predicting anti-cancer drug combination responses with a temporal cell state network model

Cancer chemotherapy combines multiple drugs, but predicting the effects of drug combinations on cancer cell proliferation remains challenging, even for simple in vitro systems. We hypothesized that by combining knowledge of single drug dose responses and cell state transition network dynamics, we could predict how a population of cancer cells will respond to drug combinations. We tested this hypothesis here using three targeted inhibitors of different cell cycle states in two different cell lines in vitro. We formulated a Markov model to capture temporal cell state transitions between different cell cycle phases, with single drug data constraining how drug doses affect transition rates. This model was able to predict the landscape of all three different pairwise drug combinations across all dose ranges for both cell lines with no additional data. While further application to different cell lines, more drugs, additional cell state networks, and more complex co-culture or in vivo systems remain, this work demonstrates how currently available or attainable information could be sufficient for prediction of drug combination response for single cell lines in vitro.

Epigenetic memory acquired during long-term EMT induction governs the recovery to the epithelial state

Epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) and its reverse mesenchymal-epithelial transition (MET) are critical during embryonic development, wound healing and cancer metastasis. While phenotypic changes during short-term EMT induction are reversible, long-term EMT induction has been often associated with irreversibility. Here, we show that phenotypic changes seen in MCF10A cells upon long-term EMT induction by TGFβ need not be irreversible, but have relatively longer time scales of reversibility than those seen in short-term induction. Next, using a phenomenological mathematical model to account for the chromatin-mediated epigenetic silencing of the miR-200 family by ZEB family, we highlight how the epigenetic memory gained during long-term EMT induction can slow the recovery to the epithelial state post-TGFβ withdrawal. Our results suggest that epigenetic modifiers can govern the extent and time scale of EMT reversibility and advise caution against labelling phenotypic changes seen in long-term EMT induction as 'irreversible'.

Stochastic population dynamics of cancer stemness and adaptive response to therapies

Intratumoral heterogeneity can exist along multiple axes: Cancer stem cells (CSCs)/non-CSCs, drug-sensitive/drug-tolerant states, and a spectrum of epithelial-hybrid-mesenchymal phenotypes. Further, these diverse cell-states can switch reversibly among one another, thereby posing a major challenge to therapeutic efficacy. Therefore, understanding the origins of phenotypic plasticity and heterogeneity remains an active area of investigation. While genomic components (mutations, chromosomal instability) driving heterogeneity have been well-studied, recent reports highlight the role of non-genetic mechanisms in enabling both phenotypic plasticity and heterogeneity. Here, we discuss various processes underlying phenotypic plasticity such as stochastic gene expression, chromatin reprogramming, asymmetric cell division and the presence of multiple stable gene expression patterns ('attractors'). These processes can facilitate a dynamically evolving cell population such that a subpopulation of (drug-tolerant) cells can survive lethal drug exposure and recapitulate population heterogeneity on drug withdrawal, leading to relapse. These drug-tolerant cells can be both pre-existing and also induced by the drug itself through cell-state reprogramming. The dynamics of cell-state transitions both in absence and presence of the drug can be quantified through mathematical models. Such a dynamical systems approach to elucidating patterns of intratumoral heterogeneity by integrating longitudinal experimental data with mathematical models can help design effective combinatorial and/or sequential therapies for better clinical outcomes.