Discovering significant evolutionary trajectories in cancer phylogenies

Order-of-Mutation Effects on Cancer Progression: Models for Myeloproliferative Neoplasm

In some patients with myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPN), two genetic mutations are often found: JAK2 V617F and one in the TET2 gene. Whether one mutation is present influences how the other subsequent mutation will affect the regulation of gene expression. In other words, when a patient carries both mutations, the order of when they first arose has been shown to influence disease progression and prognosis. We propose a nonlinear ordinary differential equation, the Moran process, and Markov chain models to explain the non-additive and non-commutative mutation effects on recent clinical observations of gene expression patterns, proportions of cells with different mutations, and ages at diagnosis of MPN. Combined, these observations are used to shape our modeling framework. Our key proposal is that bistability in gene expression provides a natural explanation for many observed order-of-mutation effects. We also propose potential experimental measurements that can be used to confirm or refute predictions of our models.

Order-of-mutation effects on cancer progression: models for myeloproliferative neoplasm

In some patients with myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPN), two genetic mutations are often found, JAK2 V617F and one in the TET2 gene. Whether or not one mutation is present will influence how the other subsequent mutation affects the regulation of gene expression. When both mutations are present, the order of their occurrence has been shown to influence disease progression and prognosis. We propose a nonlinear ordinary differential equation (ODE), Moran process, and Markov chain models to explain the non-additive and non-commutative mutation effects on recent clinical observations of gene expression patterns, proportions of cells with different mutations, and ages at diagnosis of MPN. These observations consistently shape our modeling framework. Our key proposal is that bistability in gene expression provides a natural explanation for many observed order-of-mutation effects. We also propose potential experimental measurements that can be used to confirm or refute predictions of our models.

Joint inference of exclusivity patterns and recurrent trajectories from tumor mutation trees

Cancer progression is an evolutionary process shaped by both deterministic and stochastic forces. Multi-region and single-cell sequencing of tumors enable high-resolution reconstruction of the mutational history of each tumor and highlight the extensive diversity across tumors and patients. Resolving the interactions among mutations and recovering recurrent evolutionary processes may offer greater opportunities for successful therapeutic strategies. To this end, we present a novel probabilistic framework, called TreeMHN, for the joint inference of exclusivity patterns and recurrent trajectories from a cohort of intra-tumor phylogenetic trees. Through simulations, we show that TreeMHN outperforms existing alternatives that can only focus on one aspect of the task. By analyzing datasets of blood, lung, and breast cancers, we find the most likely evolutionary trajectories and mutational patterns, consistent with and enriching our current understanding of tumorigenesis. Moreover, TreeMHN facilitates the prediction of tumor evolution and provides probabilistic measures on the next mutational events given a tumor tree, a prerequisite for evolution-guided treatment strategies.

Clonal interactions in cancer: integrating quantitative models with experimental and clinical data

Tumors consist of different genotypically distinct subpopulations-or subclones-of cells. These subclones can influence neighboring clones in a process called "clonal interaction." Conventionally, research on driver mutations in cancer has focused on their cell-autonomous effects that lead to an increase in fitness of the cells containing the driver. Recently, with the advent of improved experimental and computational technologies for investigating tumor heterogeneity and clonal dynamics, new studies have shown the importance of clonal interactions in cancer initiation, progression, and metastasis. In this review we provide an overview of clonal interactions in cancer, discussing key discoveries from a diverse range of approaches to cancer biology research. We discuss common types of clonal interactions, such as cooperation and competition, its mechanisms, and the overall effect on tumorigenesis, with important implications for tumor heterogeneity, resistance to treatment, and tumor suppression. Quantitative models-in coordination with cell culture and animal model experiments-have played a vital role in investigating the nature of clonal interactions and the complex clonal dynamics they generate. We present mathematical and computational models that can be used to represent clonal interactions and provide examples of the roles they have played in identifying and quantifying the strength of clonal interactions in experimental systems. Clonal interactions have proved difficult to observe in clinical data; however, several very recent quantitative approaches enable their detection. We conclude by discussing ways in which researchers can further integrate quantitative methods with experimental and clinical data to elucidate the critical-and often surprising-roles of clonal interactions in human cancers.